Reconciling estimates of the contemporary North American carbon balance among terrestrial biosphere models,atmospheric inversions,and a new approach for estimating net ecosystem exchange from inventory‐based data

We develop an approach for estimating net ecosystem exchange (NEE) using inventory‐based information over North America (NA) for a recent 7‐year period (ca. 2000–2006). The approach notably retains information on the spatial distribution of NEE, or the vertical exchange between land and atmosphere of all non‐fossil fuel sources and sinks of CO₂, while accounting for lateral transfers of forest and crop products as well as their eventual emissions. The total NEE estimate of a ?327 ± 252 TgC yr^?1 sink for NA was driven primarily by CO₂ uptake in the Forest Lands sector (?248 TgC yr^?1), largely in the Northwest and Southeast regions of the US, and in the Crop Lands sector (?297 TgC yr^?1), predominantly in the Midwest US states. These sinks are counteracted by the carbon source estimated for the Other Lands sector (+218 TgC yr^?1), where much of the forest and crop products are assumed to be returned to the atmosphere (through livestock and human consumption). The ecosystems of Mexico are estimated to be a small net source (+18 TgC yr^?1) due to land use change between 1993 and 2002. We compare these inventory‐based estimates with results from a suite of terrestrial biosphere and atmospheric inversion models, where the mean continental‐scale NEE estimate for each ensemble is ?511 TgC yr^?1 and ?931 TgC yr^?1, respectively. In the modeling approaches, all sectors, including Other Lands, were generally estimated to be a carbon sink, driven in part by assumed CO₂ fertilization and/or lack of consideration of carbon sources from disturbances and product emissions. Additional fluxes not measured by the inventories, although highly uncertain, could add an additional ?239 TgC yr^?1 to the inventory‐based NA sink estimate, thus suggesting some convergence with the modeling approaches.     

Higher than expected CO2 fertilization inferred from leaf to global observations

Several lines of evidence point to an increase in the activity of the terrestrial biosphere over recent decades, impacting the global net land carbon sink (NLS) and its control on the growth of atmospheric carbon dioxide (c_a). Global terrestrial gross primary production (GPP)—the rate of carbon fixation by photosynthesis—is estimated to have risen by (31 ± 5)% since 1900, but the relative contributions of different putative drivers to this increase are not well known. Here we identify the rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration as the dominant driver. We reconcile leaf‐level and global atmospheric constraints on trends in modeled biospheric activity to reveal a global CO₂ fertilization effect on photosynthesis of 30% since 1900, or 47% for a doubling of c_a above the pre‐industrial level. Our historic value is nearly twice as high as current estimates (17 ± 4)% that do not use the full range of available constraints. Consequently, under a future low‐emission scenario, we project a land carbon sink (174 PgC, 2006–2099) that is 57 PgC larger than if a lower CO₂ fertilization effect comparable with current estimates is assumed. These findings suggest a larger beneficial role of the land carbon sink in modulating future excess anthropogenic CO₂ consistent with the target of the Paris Agreement to stay below 2°C warming, and underscore the importance of preserving terrestrial carbon sinks.     

Terrestrial fluxes of carbon in GCP carbon budgets

The Global Carbon Project (GCP) has published global carbon budgets annually since 2007 (Canadell et al. [2007], Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 104, 18866–18870; Raupach et al. [2007], Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 104, 10288–10293). There are many scientists involved, but the terrestrial fluxes that appear in the budgets are not well understood by ecologists and biogeochemists outside of that community. The purpose of this paper is to make the terrestrial fluxes of carbon in those budgets more accessible to a broader community. The GCP budget is composed of annual perturbations from pre‐industrial conditions, driven by addition of carbon to the system from combustion of fossil fuels and by transfers of carbon from land to the atmosphere as a result of land use. The budget includes a term for each of the major fluxes of carbon (fossil fuels, oceans, land) as well as the rate of carbon accumulation in the atmosphere. Land is represented by two terms: one resulting from direct anthropogenic effects (Land Use, Land‐Use Change, and Forestry or land management) and one resulting from indirect anthropogenic (e.g., CO₂, climate change) and natural effects. Each of these two net terrestrial fluxes of carbon, in turn, is composed of opposing gross emissions and removals (e.g., deforestation and forest regrowth). Although the GCP budgets have focused on the two net terrestrial fluxes, they have paid little attention to the gross components, which are important for a number of reasons, including understanding the potential for land management to remove CO₂ from the atmosphere and understanding the processes responsible for the sink for carbon on land. In contrast to the net fluxes of carbon, which are constrained by the global carbon budget, the gross fluxes are largely unconstrained, suggesting that there is more uncertainty than commonly believed about how terrestrial carbon emissions will respond to future fossil fuel emissions and a changing climate.     

Is carbon within the global terrestrial biosphere becoming more oxidized? Implications for trends in atmospheric O2

Measurements of atmospheric O₂ and CO₂ concentrations serve as a widely used means to partition global land and ocean carbon sinks. Interpretation of these measurements has assumed that the terrestrial biosphere contributes to changing O₂ levels by either expanding or contracting in size, and thus serving as either a carbon sink or source (and conversely as either an oxygen source or sink). Here, we show how changes in atmospheric O₂ can also occur if carbon within the terrestrial biosphere becomes more reduced or more oxidized, even with a constant carbon pool. At a global scale, we hypothesize that increasing levels of disturbance within many biomes has favored plant functional types with lower oxidative ratios and that this has caused carbon within the terrestrial biosphere to become increasingly more oxidized over a period of decades. Accounting for this mechanism in the global atmospheric O₂ budget may require a small increase in the size of the land carbon sink. In a scenario based on the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford Approach model, a cumulative decrease in the oxidative ratio of net primary production (NPP) (moles of O₂ produced per mole of CO₂ fixed in NPP) by 0.01 over a period of 100 years would create an O₂ disequilibrium of 0.0017 and require an increased land carbon sink of 0.1 Pg C yr⁻¹ to balance global atmospheric O₂ and CO₂ budgets. At present, however, it is challenging to directly measure the oxidative ratio of terrestrial ecosystem exchange and even more difficult to detect a disequilibrium caused by a changing oxidative ratio of NPP. Information on plant and soil chemical composition complement gas exchange approaches for measuring the oxidative ratio, particularly for understanding how this quantity may respond to various global change processes over annual to decadal timescales.     

Implications of CO2 fertilization for future climate change in a coupled climate–carbon model

The terrestrial carbon cycle plays a critical role in determining levels of atmospheric CO₂ that result from anthropogenic carbon emissions. Elevated atmospheric CO₂ is thought to stimulate terrestrial carbon uptake, through the process of CO₂ fertilization of vegetation productivity. This negative carbon cycle feedback results in reduced atmospheric CO₂ growth, and has likely accounted for a substantial portion of the historical terrestrial carbon sink. However, the future strength of CO₂ fertilization in response to continued carbon emissions and atmospheric CO₂ rise is highly uncertain. In this paper, the ramifications of CO₂ fertilization in simulations of future climate change are explored, using an intermediate complexity coupled climate–carbon model. It is shown that the absence of future CO₂ fertilization results in substantially higher future CO₂ levels in the atmosphere, as this removes the dominant contributor to future terrestrial carbon uptake in the model. As a result, climate changes are larger, though the radiative effect of higher CO₂ on surface temperatures in the model is offset by about 30% due to reduced positive dynamic vegetation feedbacks; that is, the removal of CO₂ fertilization results in less vegetation expansion in the model, which would otherwise constitute an important positive surface albedo‐temperature feedback. However, the effect of larger climate changes has other important implications for the carbon cycle – notably to further weaken remaining carbon sinks in the model. As a result, positive climate–carbon cycle feedbacks are larger when CO₂ fertilization is absent. This creates an interesting synergism of terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks, whereby positive (climate–carbon cycle) feedbacks are amplified when a negative (CO₂ fertilization) feedback is removed.     

Evaluating atmospheric CO2 inversions at multiple scales over a highly inventoried agricultural landscape

An intensive regional research campaign was conducted by the North American Carbon Program (NACP) in 2007 to study the carbon cycle of the highly productive agricultural regions of the Midwestern United States. Forty‐five different associated projects were conducted across five US agencies over the course of nearly a decade involving hundreds of researchers. One of the primary objectives of the intensive campaign was to investigate the ability of atmospheric inversion techniques to use highly calibrated CO₂ mixing ratio data to estimate CO₂ flux over the major croplands of the United States by comparing the results to an inventory of CO₂ fluxes. Statistics from densely monitored crop production, consisting primarily of corn and soybeans, provided the backbone of a well studied bottom‐up inventory flux estimate that was used to evaluate the atmospheric inversion results. Estimates were compared to the inventory from three different inversion systems, representing spatial scales varying from high resolution mesoscale (PSU), to continental (CSU) and global (CarbonTracker), coupled to different transport models and optimization techniques. The inversion‐based mean CO₂‐C sink estimates were generally slightly larger, 8–20% for PSU, 10–20% for CSU, and 21% for CarbonTracker, but statistically indistinguishable, from the inventory estimate of 135 TgC. While the comparisons show that the MCI region‐wide C sink is robust across inversion system and spatial scale, only the continental and mesoscale inversions were able to reproduce the spatial patterns within the region. In general, the results demonstrate that inversions can recover CO₂ fluxes at sub‐regional scales with a relatively high density of CO₂ observations and adequate information on atmospheric transport in the region.     

Terrestrial ecosystems and the carbon cycle

The terrestrial biosphere plays an important role in the global carbon cycle. In the 1994 Intergovernmental Panel Assessment on Climate Change (IPCC), an effort was made to improve the quantification of terrestrial exchanges and potential feedbacks from climate, changing CO₂, and other factors; this paper presents the key results from that assessment, together with expanded discussion. The carbon cycle is the fluxes of carbon among four main reservoirs: fossil carbon, the atmosphere, the oceans, and the terrestrial biosphere. Emissions of fossil carbon during the 1980s averaged 5.5 Gt y^?1. During the same period, the atmosphere gained 3.2 Gt C y^?1 and the oceans are believed to have absorbed 2.0 Gt C y^?1. The regrowing forests of the Northern Hemisphere may have absorbed 0.5 Gt C y^?1 during this period. Meanwhile, tropical deforestation is thought to have released an average 1.6 Gt C y^?1 over the 1980s. While the fluxes among the four pools should balance, the average 198Ds values lead to a ‘missing sink’ of 1.4 Gt C y^?1 Several processes, including forest regrowth, CO₂ fertilization of plant growth (c. 1.0 Gt C y^?1), N deposition (c. 0.6 Gt C y^?1), and their interactions, may account for the budget imbalance. However, it remains difficult to quantify the influences of these separate but interactive processes. Uncertainties in the individual numbers are large, and are themselves poorly quantified. This paper presents detail beyond the IPCC assessment on procedures used to approximate the flux uncertainties. Lack of knowledge about positive and negative feedbacks from the biosphere is a major limiting factor to credible simulations of future atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. Analyses of the atmospheric gradients of CO₂ and ¹³ CO₂ concentrations provide increasingly strong evidence for terrestrial sinks, potentially distributed between Northern Hemisphere and tropical regions, but conclusive detection in direct biomass and soil measurements remains elusive. Current regional-to-global terrestrial ecosystem models with coupled carbon and nitrogen cycles represent the effects of CO₂ fertilization differently, but all suggest longterm responses to CO₂ that are substantially smaller than potential leaf- or laboratory whole plant-level responses. Analyses of emissions and biogeochemical fluxes consistent with eventual stabilization of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations are sensitive to the way in which biospheric feedbacks are modeled by c. 15%. Decisions about land use can have effects of 100s of Gt C over the next few centuries, with similarly significant effects on the atmosphere. Critical areas for future research are continued measurements and analyses of atmospheric data (CO₂ and ¹³CO₂) to serve as large-scale constraints, process studies of the scaling from the photosynthetic response to CO₂ to whole-ecosystem carbon storage, and rigorous quantification of the effects of changing land use on carbon storage.     

FLUXNET and modelling the global carbon cycle

Measurements of the net CO₂ flux between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere using the eddy covariance technique have the potential to underpin our interpretation of regional CO₂ source–sink patterns, CO₂ flux responses to forcings, and predictions of the future terrestrial C balance. Information contained in FLUXNET eddy covariance data has multiple uses for the development and application of global carbon models, including evaluation/validation, calibration, process parameterization, and data assimilation. This paper reviews examples of these uses, compares global estimates of the dynamics of the global carbon cycle, and suggests ways of improving the utility of such data for global carbon modelling. Net ecosystem exchange of CO₂ (NEE) predicted by different terrestrial biosphere models compares favourably with FLUXNET observations at diurnal and seasonal timescales. However, complete model validation, particularly over the full annual cycle, requires information on the balance between assimilation and decomposition processes, information not readily available for most FLUXNET sites. Site history, when known, can greatly help constrain the model‐data comparison. Flux measurements made over four vegetation types were used to calibrate the land‐surface scheme of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model, significantly improving simulated climate and demonstrating the utility of diurnal FLUXNET data for climate modelling. Land‐surface temperatures in many regions cool due to higher canopy conductances and latent heat fluxes, and the spatial distribution of CO₂ uptake provides a significant additional constraint on the realism of simulated surface fluxes. FLUXNET data are used to calibrate a global production efficiency model (PEM). This model is forced by satellite‐measured absorbed radiation and suggests that global net primary production (NPP) increased 6.2% over 1982–1999. Good agreement is found between global trends in NPP estimated by the PEM and a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM), and between the DGVM and estimates of global NEE derived from a global inversion of atmospheric CO₂ measurements. Combining the PEM, DGVM, and inversion results suggests that CO₂ fertilization is playing a major role in current increases in NPP, with lesser impacts from increasing N deposition and growing season length. Both the PEM and the inversion identify the Amazon basin as a key region for the current net terrestrial CO₂ uptake (i.e. 33% of global NEE), as well as its interannual variability. The inversion's global NEE estimate of −1.2 Pg [C] yr⁻¹ for 1982–1995 is compatible with the PEM‐ and DGVM‐predicted trends in NPP. There is, thus, a convergence in understanding derived from process‐based models, remote‐sensing‐based observations, and inversion of atmospheric data. Future advances in field measurement techniques, including eddy covariance (particularly concerning the problem of night‐time fluxes in dense canopies and of advection or flow distortion over complex terrain), will result in improved constraints on land‐atmosphere CO₂ fluxes and the rigorous attribution of mechanisms to the current terrestrial net CO₂ uptake and its spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Global ecosystem models play a fundamental role in linking information derived from FLUXNET measurements to atmospheric CO₂ variability. A number of recommendations concerning FLUXNET data are made, including a request for more comprehensive site data (particularly historical information), more measurements in undisturbed ecosystems, and the systematic provision of error estimates. The greatest value of current FLUXNET data for global carbon cycle modelling is in evaluating process representations, rather than in providing an unbiased estimate of net CO₂ exchange.     

Feedback of carbon and nitrogen cycles enhances carbon sequestration in the terrestrial biosphere

The efforts to explain the ‘missing sink’ for anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO₂) have included in recent years the role of nitrogen as an important constraint for biospheric carbon fluxes. We used the Nitrogen Carbon Interaction Model (NCIM) to investigate patterns of carbon and nitrogen storage in different compartments of the terrestrial biosphere as a consequence of a rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration, in combination with varying levels of nitrogen availability. This model has separate but closely coupled carbon and nitrogen cycles with a focus on soil processes and soil–plant interactions, including an active compartment of soil microorganisms decomposing litter residues and competing with plants for available nitrogen. Biological nitrogen fixation is represented as a function of vegetation nitrogen demand. The model was validated against several global datasets of soil and vegetation carbon and nitrogen pools. Five model experiments were carried out for the modeling periods 1860–2002 and 2002–2100. In these experiments we varied the nitrogen availability using different combinations of biological nitrogen fixation, denitrification, leaching of soluble nitrogen compounds with constant or rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. Oversupply with nitrogen, in an experiment with nitrogen fixation, but no nitrogen losses, together with constant atmospheric CO₂, led to some carbon sequestration in organismic pools, which was nearly compensated by losses of C from soil organic carbon pools. Rising atmospheric CO₂ always led to carbon sequestration in the biosphere. Considering an open nitrogen cycle including dynamic nitrogen fixation, and nitrogen losses from denitrification and leaching, the carbon sequestration in the biosphere is of a magnitude comparable to current observation based estimates of the ‘missing sink.’ A fertilization feedback between the carbon and nitrogen cycles occurred in this experiment, which was much stronger than the sum of separate influences of high nitrogen supply and rising atmospheric CO₂. The demand‐driven biological nitrogen fixation was mainly responsible for this result. For the modeling period 2002–2100, NCIM predicts continued carbon sequestration in the low range of previously published estimates, combined with a plausible rate of CO₂‐driven biological nitrogen fixation and substantial redistribution of nitrogen from soil to plant pools.     

Evaluation of terrestrial carbon cycle models for their response to climate variability and to CO2 trends

The purpose of this study was to evaluate 10 process‐based terrestrial biosphere models that were used for the IPCC fifth Assessment Report. The simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) is compared with flux‐tower‐based estimates by Jung et al. [Journal of Geophysical Research 116 (2011) G00J07] (JU11). The net primary productivity (NPP) apparent sensitivity to climate variability and atmospheric CO₂ trends is diagnosed from each model output, using statistical functions. The temperature sensitivity is compared against ecosystem field warming experiments results. The CO₂ sensitivity of NPP is compared to the results from four Free‐Air CO₂ Enrichment (FACE) experiments. The simulated global net biome productivity (NBP) is compared with the residual land sink (RLS) of the global carbon budget from Friedlingstein et al. [Nature Geoscience 3 (2010) 811] (FR10). We found that models produce a higher GPP (133 ± 15 Pg C yr^?1) than JU11 (118 ± 6 Pg C yr^?1). In response to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration, modeled NPP increases on average by 16% (5–20%) per 100 ppm, a slightly larger apparent sensitivity of NPP to CO₂ than that measured at the FACE experiment locations (13% per 100 ppm). Global NBP differs markedly among individual models, although the mean value of 2.0 ± 0.8 Pg C yr^?1 is remarkably close to the mean value of RLS (2.1 ± 1.2 Pg C yr^?1). The interannual variability in modeled NBP is significantly correlated with that of RLS for the period 1980–2009. Both model‐to‐model and interannual variation in model GPP is larger than that in model NBP due to the strong coupling causing a positive correlation between ecosystem respiration and GPP in the model. The average linear regression slope of global NBP vs. temperature across the 10 models is ?3.0 ± 1.5 Pg C yr^?1 °C^?1, within the uncertainty of what derived from RLS (?3.9 ± 1.1 Pg C yr^?1 °C^?1). However, 9 of 10 models overestimate the regression slope of NBP vs. precipitation, compared with the slope of the observed RLS vs. precipitation. With most models lacking processes that control GPP and NBP in addition to CO₂ and climate, the agreement between modeled and observation‐based GPP and NBP can be fortuitous. Carbon–nitrogen interactions (only separable in one model) significantly influence the simulated response of carbon cycle to temperature and atmospheric CO₂ concentration, suggesting that nutrients limitations should be included in the next generation of terrestrial biosphere models.     

Climatic role of terrestrial ecosystem under elevated CO2: a bottom‐up greenhouse gases budget

The net balance of greenhouse gas (GHG) exchanges between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere under elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) remains poorly understood. Here, we synthesise 1655 measurements from 169 published studies to assess GHGs budget of terrestrial ecosystems under elevated CO₂. We show that elevated CO₂ significantly stimulates plant C pool (NPP) by 20%, soil CO₂ fluxes by 24%, and methane (CH₄) fluxes by 34% from rice paddies and by 12% from natural wetlands, while it slightly decreases CH₄ uptake of upland soils by 3.8%. Elevated CO₂ causes insignificant increases in soil nitrous oxide (N₂O) fluxes (4.6%), soil organic C (4.3%) and N (3.6%) pools. The elevated CO₂‐induced increase in GHG emissions may decline with CO₂ enrichment levels. An elevated CO₂‐induced rise in soil CH₄ and N₂O emissions (2.76 Pg CO₂‐equivalent year^?1) could negate soil C enrichment (2.42 Pg CO₂ year^?1) or reduce mitigation potential of terrestrial net ecosystem production by as much as 69% (NEP, 3.99 Pg CO₂ year^?1) under elevated CO₂. Our analysis highlights that the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to act as a sink to slow climate warming under elevated CO₂ might have been largely offset by its induced increases in soil GHGs source strength.     

Effects of 21st‐century climate,land use,and disturbances on ecosystem carbon balance in California

Terrestrial ecosystems are an important sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂), sequestering ~30% of annual anthropogenic emissions and slowing the rise of atmospheric CO₂. However, the future direction and magnitude of the land sink is highly uncertain. We examined how historical and projected changes in climate, land use, and ecosystem disturbances affect the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in California over the period 2001–2100. We modeled 32 unique scenarios, spanning 4 land use and 2 radiative forcing scenarios as simulated by four global climate models. Between 2001 and 2015, carbon storage in California's terrestrial ecosystems declined by ?188.4 Tg C, with a mean annual flux ranging from a source of ?89.8 Tg C/year to a sink of 60.1 Tg C/year. The large variability in the magnitude of the state's carbon source/sink was primarily attributable to interannual variability in weather and climate, which affected the rate of carbon uptake in vegetation and the rate of ecosystem respiration. Under nearly all future scenarios, carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems was projected to decline, with an average loss of ?9.4% (?432.3 Tg C) by the year 2100 from current stocks. However, uncertainty in the magnitude of carbon loss was high, with individual scenario projections ranging from ?916.2 to 121.2 Tg C and was largely driven by differences in future climate conditions projected by climate models. Moving from a high to a low radiative forcing scenario reduced net ecosystem carbon loss by 21% and when combined with reductions in land‐use change (i.e., moving from a high to a low land‐use scenario), net carbon losses were reduced by 55% on average. However, reconciling large uncertainties associated with the effect of increasing atmospheric CO₂ is needed to better constrain models used to establish baseline conditions from which ecosystem‐based climate mitigation strategies can be evaluated.     

Causes of slowing‐down seasonal CO2 amplitude at Mauna Loa

Changing amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO₂ (SCA) in the northern hemisphere is an emerging carbon cycle property. Mauna Loa (MLO) station (20°N, 156°W), which has the longest continuous northern hemisphere CO₂ record, shows an increasing SCA before the 1980s (p < .01), followed by no significant change thereafter. We analyzed the potential driving factors of SCA slowing‐down, with an ensemble of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) coupled with an atmospheric transport model. We found that slowing‐down of SCA at MLO is primarily explained by response of net biome productivity (NBP) to climate change, and by changes in atmospheric circulations. Through NBP, climate change increases SCA at MLO before the 1980s and decreases it afterwards. The effect of climate change on the slowing‐down of SCA at MLO is mainly exerted by intensified drought stress acting to offset the acceleration driven by CO₂ fertilization. This challenges the view that CO₂ fertilization is the dominant cause of emergent SCA trends at northern sites south of 40°N. The contribution of agricultural intensification on the deceleration of SCA at MLO was elusive according to land–atmosphere CO₂ flux estimated by DGVMs and atmospheric inversions. Our results also show the necessity to adequately account for changing circulation patterns in understanding carbon cycle dynamics observed from atmospheric observations and in using these observations to benchmark DGVMs.     

Boundary layer budgets for regional estimates of scalar fluxes

The paper considers the theory and application of budget techniques for regional scalar flux estimation using the daytime convective boundary layer (CBL) and the nocturnal boundary layer (NBL). CBL techniques treat the well mixed layer of air between heights of, say, 100 m and 1000 m as an integrator of surface fluxes along the path of a column of air moving over the landscape. They calculate the average surface flux from the scalar concentration in and above the mixed layer, and the CBL height. The flux estimates are averaged over regions of 10–10⁴ km² extending 10 to 100 km upwind. An integral form of the CBL budget is used to estimate daily regional rates of CO₂ uptake and evaporation from three data sets. There was plausible agreement between the estimates and locally measured fluxes. CBL budgets have great potential for estimating regional scalar fluxes, but there is an urgent need for validation through direct measurements of fluxes and budget parameters. NBL budgets are useful when low-level, radiative inversions inhibit vertical mixing. Surface scalar fluxes can then be estimated from the rate of concentration change below the inversion. An example application for estimating the nocturnal CO₂ flux is given. While simple in concept, NBL budgets are more difficult to apply in practice because of the unpredictability of the depth of the layer and sometimes, its absence altogether. On the other hand, the depth of the atmospheric mixing chamber is better defined, few assumptions are required and the concentration changes usually will be larger and hence more easily detectable than in CBL budgetting.     

Response of terrestrial carbon uptake to climate interannual variability in China

The interest in national terrestrial ecosystem carbon budgets has been increasing because the Kyoto Protocol has included some terrestrial carbon sinks in a legally binding framework for controlling greenhouse gases emissions. Accurate quantification of the terrestrial carbon sink must account the interannual variations associated with climate variability and change. This study used a process‐based biogeochemical model and a remote sensing‐based production efficiency model to estimate the variations in net primary production (NPP), soil heterotrophic respiration (HR), and net ecosystem production (NEP) caused by climate variability and atmospheric CO₂ increases in China during the period 1981–2000. The results show that China's terrestrial NPP varied between 2.86 and 3.37 Gt C yr^?1 with a growth rate of 0.32% year^?1 and HR varied between 2.89 and 3.21 Gt C yr^?1 with a growth rate of 0.40% year^?1 in the period 1981–1998. Whereas the increases in HR were related mainly to warming, the increases in NPP were attributed to increases in precipitation and atmospheric CO₂. Net ecosystem production (NEP) varied between ?0.32 and 0.25 Gt C yr^?1 with a mean value of 0.07 Gt C yr^?1, leading to carbon accumulation of 0.79 Gt in vegetation and 0.43 Gt in soils during the period. To the interannual variations in NEP changes in NPP contributed more than HR in arid northern China but less in moist southern China. NEP had no a statistically significant trend, but the mean annual NEP for the 1990s was lower than for the 1980s as the increases in NEP in southern China were offset by the decreases in northern China. These estimates indicate that China's terrestrial ecosystems were taking up carbon but the capacity was undermined by the ongoing climate change. The estimated NEP related to climate variation and atmospheric CO₂ increases may account for from 40 to 80% to the total terrestrial carbon sink in China.     

The global pyrogenic carbon cycle and its impact on the level of atmospheric CO2 over past and future centuries

The incomplete combustion of vegetation and dead organic matter by landscape fires creates recalcitrant pyrogenic carbon (PyC), which could be consequential for the global carbon budget if changes in fire regime, climate, and atmospheric CO₂ were to substantially affect gains and losses of PyC on land and in oceans. Here, we included global PyC cycling in a coupled climate–carbon model to assess the role of PyC in historical and future simulations, accounting for uncertainties through five sets of parameter estimates. We obtained year‐2000 global stocks of (Central estimate, likely uncertainty range in parentheses) 86 (11–154), 47 (2–64), and 1129 (90–5892) Pg C for terrestrial residual PyC (RPyC), marine dissolved PyC, and marine particulate PyC, respectively. PyC cycling decreased atmospheric CO₂ only slightly between 1751 and 2000 (by 0.8 Pg C for the Central estimate) as PyC‐related fluxes changed little over the period. For 2000 to 2300, we combined Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 with stable or continuously increasing future fire frequencies. For the increasing future fire regime, the production of new RPyC generally outpaced the warming‐induced accelerated loss of existing RPyC, so that PyC cycling decreased atmospheric CO₂ between 2000 and 2300 for most estimates (by 4–8 Pg C for Central). For the stable fire regime, however, PyC cycling usually increased atmospheric CO₂ (by 1–9 Pg C for Central), and only the most extreme choice of parameters maximizing PyC production and minimizing PyC decomposition led to atmospheric CO₂ decreases under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 (by 5–8 Pg C). Our results suggest that PyC cycling will likely reduce the future increase in atmospheric CO₂ if landscape fires become much more frequent; however, in the absence of a substantial increase in fire frequency, PyC cycling might contribute to, rather than mitigate, the future increase in atmospheric CO₂.     

Constraining future terrestrial carbon cycle projections using observation‐based water and carbon flux estimates

The terrestrial biosphere is currently acting as a sink for about a third of the total anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. However, the future fate of this sink in the coming decades is very uncertain, as current earth system models (ESMs) simulate diverging responses of the terrestrial carbon cycle to upcoming climate change. Here, we use observation‐based constraints of water and carbon fluxes to reduce uncertainties in the projected terrestrial carbon cycle response derived from simulations of ESMs conducted as part of the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We find in the ESMs a clear linear relationship between present‐day evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary productivity (GPP), as well as between these present‐day fluxes and projected changes in GPP, thus providing an emergent constraint on projected GPP. Constraining the ESMs based on their ability to simulate present‐day ET and GPP leads to a substantial decrease in the projected GPP and to a ca. 50% reduction in the associated model spread in GPP by the end of the century. Given the strong correlation between projected changes in GPP and in NBP in the ESMs, applying the constraints on net biome productivity (NBP) reduces the model spread in the projected land sink by more than 30% by 2100. Moreover, the projected decline in the land sink is at least doubled in the constrained ensembles and the probability that the terrestrial biosphere is turned into a net carbon source by the end of the century is strongly increased. This indicates that the decline in the future land carbon uptake might be stronger than previously thought, which would have important implications for the rate of increase in the atmospheric CO₂ concentration and for future climate change.     

Gross primary production responses to warming,elevated CO2, and irrigation: quantifying the drivers of ecosystem physiology in a semiarid grassland

Determining whether the terrestrial biosphere will be a source or sink of carbon (C) under a future climate of elevated CO₂ (eCO₂) and warming requires accurate quantification of gross primary production (GPP), the largest flux of C in the global C cycle. We evaluated 6 years (2007–2012) of flux‐derived GPP data from the Prairie Heating and CO₂ Enrichment (PHACE) experiment, situated in a grassland in Wyoming, USA. The GPP data were used to calibrate a light response model whose basic formulation has been successfully used in a variety of ecosystems. The model was extended by modeling maximum photosynthetic rate (A_max) and light‐use efficiency (Q) as functions of soil water, air temperature, vapor pressure deficit, vegetation greenness, and nitrogen at current and antecedent (past) timescales. The model fits the observed GPP well (R² = 0.79), which was confirmed by other model performance checks that compared different variants of the model (e.g. with and without antecedent effects). Stimulation of cumulative 6‐year GPP by warming (29%, P = 0.02) and eCO₂ (26%, P = 0.07) was primarily driven by enhanced C uptake during spring (129%, P = 0.001) and fall (124%, P = 0.001), respectively, which was consistent across years. Antecedent air temperature (Tair_ant) and vapor pressure deficit (VPD_ant) effects on A_max (over the past 3–4 days and 1–3 days, respectively) were the most significant predictors of temporal variability in GPP among most treatments. The importance of VPD_ant suggests that atmospheric drought is important for predicting GPP under current and future climate; we highlight the need for experimental studies to identify the mechanisms underlying such antecedent effects. Finally, posterior estimates of cumulative GPP under control and eCO₂ treatments were tested as a benchmark against 12 terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs). The narrow uncertainties of these data‐driven GPP estimates suggest that they could be useful semi‐independent data streams for validating TBMs.     

Interaction of ocean and biosphere in their transient responses to increasing atmospheric CO2

Increasing atmospheric CO₂ induces a net uptake of carbon in the ocean by a shift in chemical equilibrium in seawater, and in the terrestrial biosphere by a stimulated photosynthesis and productivity. The fractions absorbed in both biosphere and ocean decline with increasing dynamics of the release rate of CO₂ into the atmosphere. However, the relative portion of ocean absorption descends much faster with annual growth rate of CO₂ release than biospheric absorption does, due to a difference in dynamics. The equilibrium absorption capacity of the biosphere is estimated to be only one quarter of that of the ocean, but the current sink size of the biosphere is about half of that of the ocean.Apart from CO₂-stimulated carbon fixation, the biosphere releases CO₂ as a result of land use changes, in particular after deforestation. Both of these fluxes are of the order of 1–1.5 Pg of carbon per year. The CO₂-fertilization effect and regrowth together have turned the terrestrial biosphere as a whole from a source into a sink.     

Terrestrial biosphere model performance for inter‐annual variability of land‐atmosphere CO2 exchange

Interannual variability in biosphere‐atmosphere exchange of CO₂ is driven by a diverse range of biotic and abiotic factors. Replicating this variability thus represents the ‘acid test’ for terrestrial biosphere models. Although such models are commonly used to project responses to both normal and anomalous variability in climate, they are rarely tested explicitly against inter‐annual variability in observations. Herein, using standardized data from the North American Carbon Program, we assess the performance of 16 terrestrial biosphere models and 3 remote sensing products against long‐term measurements of biosphere‐atmosphere CO₂ exchange made with eddy‐covariance flux towers at 11 forested sites in North America. Instead of focusing on model‐data agreement we take a systematic, variability‐oriented approach and show that although the models tend to reproduce the mean magnitude of the observed annual flux variability, they fail to reproduce the timing. Large biases in modeled annual means are evident for all models. Observed interannual variability is found to commonly be on the order of magnitude of the mean fluxes. None of the models consistently reproduce observed interannual variability within measurement uncertainty. Underrepresentation of variability in spring phenology, soil thaw and snowpack melting, and difficulties in reproducing the lagged response to extreme climatic events are identified as systematic errors, common to all models included in this study.