Climatic role of terrestrial ecosystem under elevated CO2: a bottom‐up greenhouse gases budget

The net balance of greenhouse gas (GHG) exchanges between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere under elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) remains poorly understood. Here, we synthesise 1655 measurements from 169 published studies to assess GHGs budget of terrestrial ecosystems under elevated CO₂. We show that elevated CO₂ significantly stimulates plant C pool (NPP) by 20%, soil CO₂ fluxes by 24%, and methane (CH₄) fluxes by 34% from rice paddies and by 12% from natural wetlands, while it slightly decreases CH₄ uptake of upland soils by 3.8%. Elevated CO₂ causes insignificant increases in soil nitrous oxide (N₂O) fluxes (4.6%), soil organic C (4.3%) and N (3.6%) pools. The elevated CO₂‐induced increase in GHG emissions may decline with CO₂ enrichment levels. An elevated CO₂‐induced rise in soil CH₄ and N₂O emissions (2.76 Pg CO₂‐equivalent year^?1) could negate soil C enrichment (2.42 Pg CO₂ year^?1) or reduce mitigation potential of terrestrial net ecosystem production by as much as 69% (NEP, 3.99 Pg CO₂ year^?1) under elevated CO₂. Our analysis highlights that the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to act as a sink to slow climate warming under elevated CO₂ might have been largely offset by its induced increases in soil GHGs source strength.     

Causes of slowing‐down seasonal CO2 amplitude at Mauna Loa

Changing amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO₂ (SCA) in the northern hemisphere is an emerging carbon cycle property. Mauna Loa (MLO) station (20°N, 156°W), which has the longest continuous northern hemisphere CO₂ record, shows an increasing SCA before the 1980s (p < .01), followed by no significant change thereafter. We analyzed the potential driving factors of SCA slowing‐down, with an ensemble of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) coupled with an atmospheric transport model. We found that slowing‐down of SCA at MLO is primarily explained by response of net biome productivity (NBP) to climate change, and by changes in atmospheric circulations. Through NBP, climate change increases SCA at MLO before the 1980s and decreases it afterwards. The effect of climate change on the slowing‐down of SCA at MLO is mainly exerted by intensified drought stress acting to offset the acceleration driven by CO₂ fertilization. This challenges the view that CO₂ fertilization is the dominant cause of emergent SCA trends at northern sites south of 40°N. The contribution of agricultural intensification on the deceleration of SCA at MLO was elusive according to land–atmosphere CO₂ flux estimated by DGVMs and atmospheric inversions. Our results also show the necessity to adequately account for changing circulation patterns in understanding carbon cycle dynamics observed from atmospheric observations and in using these observations to benchmark DGVMs.     

Terrestrial fluxes of carbon in GCP carbon budgets

The Global Carbon Project (GCP) has published global carbon budgets annually since 2007 (Canadell et al. [2007], Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 104, 18866–18870; Raupach et al. [2007], Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 104, 10288–10293). There are many scientists involved, but the terrestrial fluxes that appear in the budgets are not well understood by ecologists and biogeochemists outside of that community. The purpose of this paper is to make the terrestrial fluxes of carbon in those budgets more accessible to a broader community. The GCP budget is composed of annual perturbations from pre‐industrial conditions, driven by addition of carbon to the system from combustion of fossil fuels and by transfers of carbon from land to the atmosphere as a result of land use. The budget includes a term for each of the major fluxes of carbon (fossil fuels, oceans, land) as well as the rate of carbon accumulation in the atmosphere. Land is represented by two terms: one resulting from direct anthropogenic effects (Land Use, Land‐Use Change, and Forestry or land management) and one resulting from indirect anthropogenic (e.g., CO₂, climate change) and natural effects. Each of these two net terrestrial fluxes of carbon, in turn, is composed of opposing gross emissions and removals (e.g., deforestation and forest regrowth). Although the GCP budgets have focused on the two net terrestrial fluxes, they have paid little attention to the gross components, which are important for a number of reasons, including understanding the potential for land management to remove CO₂ from the atmosphere and understanding the processes responsible for the sink for carbon on land. In contrast to the net fluxes of carbon, which are constrained by the global carbon budget, the gross fluxes are largely unconstrained, suggesting that there is more uncertainty than commonly believed about how terrestrial carbon emissions will respond to future fossil fuel emissions and a changing climate.     

CO2 emissions from land‐use change affected more by nitrogen cycle,than by the choice of land‐cover data

The high uncertainty in land‐based CO₂ fluxes estimates is thought to be mainly due to uncertainty in not only quantifying historical changes among forests, croplands, and grassland, but also due to different processes included in calculation methods. Inclusion of a nitrogen (N) cycle in models is fairly recent and strongly affects carbon (C) fluxes. In this study, for the first time, we use a model with C and N dynamics with three distinct historical reconstructions of land‐use and land‐use change (LULUC) to quantify LULUC emissions and uncertainty that includes the integrated effects of not only climate and CO₂ but also N. The modeled global average emissions including N dynamics for the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000–2005 were 1.8 ± 0.2, 1.7 ± 0.2, and 1.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr^?1, respectively, (mean and range across LULUC data sets). The emissions from tropics were 0.8 ± 0.2, 0.8 ± 0.2, and 0.7 ± 0.3 GtC yr^?1, and the non tropics were 1.1 ± 0.5, 0.9 ± 0.2, and 0.7 ± 0.1 GtC yr^?1. Compared to previous studies that did not include N dynamics, modeled net LULUC emissions were higher, particularly in the non tropics. In the model, N limitation reduces regrowth rates of vegetation in temperate areas resulting in higher net emissions. Our results indicate that exclusion of N dynamics leads to an underestimation of LULUC emissions by around 70% in the non tropics, 10% in the tropics, and 40% globally in the 1990s. The differences due to inclusion/exclusion of the N cycle of 0.1 GtC yr^?1 in the tropics, 0.6 GtC yr^?1 in the non tropics, and 0.7 GtC yr^?1 globally (mean across land‐cover data sets) in the 1990s were greater than differences due to the land‐cover data in the non tropics and globally (0.2 GtC yr^?1). While land‐cover information is improving with satellite and inventory data, this study indicates the importance of accounting for different processes, in particular the N cycle.     

Divergent terrestrial responses of soil N2O emissions to different levels of elevated CO2 and temperature

Understanding the responses of soil nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions from terrestrial ecosystems to future CO₂ enrichment and warming is critical for the development of mitigation and adaptation policies. The effects of continuous increase in elevated CO₂ (EC) and elevated temperature (ET) on N₂O emissions are not fully known. We synthesized 209 measurements from 70 published studies and carried out a meta-analysis to examine individual and interactive effects of EC and ET on N₂O emissions from grasslands, croplands and forests. On average, a significant increase of 23% in N₂O emissions was observed under EC across all case studies. EC did not affect N₂O emissions from grasslands or forests, but significantly increased N₂O emissions in croplands by 38%. The extent of ET effects on N₂O emissions was nonsignificant and there was no significant difference in N₂O emission responses among these three terrestrial systems. ET only promoted N₂O emissions in forest by about 32% when ET was less than 2°C. The interactive effect of EC and ET on N₂O emissions was significantly synergistic, showing a greater increase than the sum of the effects caused by EC and ET alone. Our findings indicated that the combination of EC and ET substantially promoted soil N₂O and highlighted the urgent need to explore its mechanisms to better understand N₂O responses under future climate change.     

Canopy radiation‐ and water‐use efficiencies as affected by elevated [CO2]

This study used an environmentally controlled plant growth facility, EcoCELLs, to measure canopy gas exchanges directly and to examine the effects of elevated [CO₂] on canopy radiation‐ and water‐use efficiencies. Sunflowers (Helianthus annus var. Mammoth) were grown at ambient (399 μmol mol^?1) and elevated [CO₂] (746 μmol mol^?1) for 53 days in EcoCELLs. Whole canopy carbon‐ and water‐fluxes were measured continuously during the period of the experiment. The results indicated that elevated [CO₂] enhanced daily total canopy carbon‐ and water‐fluxes by 53% and 11%, respectively, on a ground‐area basis, resulting in a 54% increase in radiation‐use efficiency (RUE) based on intercepted photosynthetic active radiation and a 26% increase in water‐use efficiency (WUE) by the end of the experiment. Canopy carbon‐ and water‐fluxes at both CO₂ treatments varied with canopy development. They were small at 22 days after planting (DAP) and gradually increased to the maxima at 46 DAP. When canopy carbon‐ and water‐fluxes were expressed on a leaf‐area basis, no effect of CO₂ was found for canopy water‐flux while elevated [CO₂] still enhanced canopy carbon‐flux by 29%, on average. Night‐time canopy carbon‐flux was 32% higher at elevated than at ambient [CO₂]. In addition, RUE and WUE displayed strong diurnal variations, high at noon and low in the morning or afternoon for WUE but opposite for RUE. This study provided direct evidence that plant canopy may consume more, instead of less, water but utilize both water and radiation more efficiently at elevated than at ambient [CO₂], at least during the exponential growth period as illustrated in this experiment.     

A method of determining rooting depth from a terrestrial biosphere model and its impacts on the global water and carbon cycle

We outline a method of inferring rooting depth from a Terrestrial Biosphere Model by maximizing the benefit of the vegetation within the model. This corresponds to the evolutionary principle that vegetation has adapted to make best use of its local environment. We demonstrate this method with a simple coupled biosphere/soil hydrology model and find that deep rooted vegetation is predicted in most parts of the tropics. Even with a simple model like the one we use, it is possible to reproduce biome averages of observations fairly well. By using the optimized rooting depths global Annual Net Primary Production (and transpiration) increases substantially compared to a standard rooting depth of one meter, especially in tropical regions that have a dry season. The decreased river discharge due to the enhanced evaporation complies better with observations. We also found that the optimization process is primarily driven by the water deficit/surplus during the dry/wet season for humid and arid regions, respectively. Climate variability further enhances rooting depth estimates. In a sensitivity analysis where we simulate changes in the water use efficiency of the vegetation we find that vegetation with an optimized rooting depth is less vulnerable to variations in the forcing. We see the main application of this method in the modelling communities of land surface schemes of General Circulation Models and of global Terrestrial Biosphere Models. We conclude that in these models, the increased soil water storage is likely to have a significant impact on the simulated climate and the carbon budget, respectively. Also, effects of land use change like tropical deforestation are likely to be larger than previously thought.     

On the causes of trends in the seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO2

No consensus has yet been reached on the major factors driving the observed increase in the seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO₂ in the northern latitudes. In this study, we used atmospheric CO₂ records from 26 northern hemisphere stations with a temporal coverage longer than 15 years, and an atmospheric transport model prescribed with net biome productivity (NBP) from an ensemble of nine terrestrial ecosystem models, to attribute change in the seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO₂. We found significant (p < .05) increases in seasonal peak‐to‐trough CO₂ amplitude (AMP_P‐T) at nine stations, and in trough‐to‐peak amplitude (AMP_T‐P) at eight stations over the last three decades. Most of the stations that recorded increasing amplitudes are in Arctic and boreal regions (>50°N), consistent with previous observations that the amplitude increased faster at Barrow (Arctic) than at Mauna Loa (subtropics). The multi‐model ensemble mean (MMEM) shows that the response of ecosystem carbon cycling to rising CO₂ concentration (eCO₂) and climate change are dominant drivers of the increase in AMP_P‐T and AMP_T‐P in the high latitudes. At the Barrow station, the observed increase of AMP_P‐T and AMP_T‐P over the last 33 years is explained by eCO₂ (39% and 42%) almost equally than by climate change (32% and 35%). The increased carbon losses during the months with a net carbon release in response to eCO₂ are associated with higher ecosystem respiration due to the increase in carbon storage caused by eCO₂ during carbon uptake period. Air‐sea CO₂ fluxes (10% for AMP_P‐T and 11% for AMP_T‐P) and the impacts of land‐use change (marginally significant 3% for AMP_P‐T and 4% for AMP_T‐P) also contributed to the CO₂ measured at Barrow, highlighting the role of these factors in regulating seasonal changes in the global carbon cycle.     

The fate of Amazonian ecosystems over the coming century arising from changes in climate,atmospheric CO2, and land use

There is considerable interest in understanding the fate of the Amazon over the coming century in the face of climate change, rising atmospheric CO₂ levels, ongoing land transformation, and changing fire regimes within the region. In this analysis, we explore the fate of Amazonian ecosystems under the combined impact of these four environmental forcings using three terrestrial biosphere models (ED2, IBIS, and JULES) forced by three bias‐corrected IPCC AR4 climate projections (PCM1, CCSM3, and HadCM3) under two land‐use change scenarios. We assess the relative roles of climate change, CO₂ fertilization, land‐use change, and fire in driving the projected changes in Amazonian biomass and forest extent. Our results indicate that the impacts of climate change are primarily determined by the direction and severity of projected changes in regional precipitation: under the driest climate projection, climate change alone is predicted to reduce Amazonian forest cover by an average of 14%. However, the models predict that CO₂ fertilization will enhance vegetation productivity and alleviate climate‐induced increases in plant water stress, and, as a result, sustain high biomass forests, even under the driest climate scenario. Land‐use change and climate‐driven changes in fire frequency are predicted to cause additional aboveground biomass loss and reductions in forest extent. The relative impact of land use and fire dynamics compared to climate and CO₂ impacts varies considerably, depending on both the climate and land‐use scenario, and on the terrestrial biosphere model used, highlighting the importance of improved quantitative understanding of all four factors – climate change, CO₂ fertilization effects, fire, and land use – to the fate of the Amazon over the coming century.     

Seasonal responses of terrestrial ecosystem water‐use efficiency to climate change

Ecosystem water‐use efficiency (EWUE) is an indicator of carbon–water interactions and is defined as the ratio of carbon assimilation (GPP) to evapotranspiration (ET). Previous research suggests an increasing long‐term trend in annual EWUE over many regions and is largely attributed to the physiological effects of rising CO₂. The seasonal trends in EWUE, however, have not yet been analyzed. In this study, we investigate seasonal EWUE trends and responses to various drivers during 1982–2008. The seasonal cycle for two variants of EWUE, water‐use efficiency (WUE, GPP/ET), and transpiration‐based WUE (WUE_t, the ratio of GPP and transpiration), is analyzed from 0.5° gridded fields from four process‐based models and satellite‐based products, as well as a network of 63 local flux tower observations. WUE derived from flux tower observations shows moderate seasonal variation for most latitude bands, which is in agreement with satellite‐based products. In contrast, the seasonal EWUE trends are not well captured by the same satellite‐based products. Trend analysis, based on process‐model factorial simulations separating effects of climate, CO₂, and nitrogen deposition (NDEP), further suggests that the seasonal EWUE trends are mainly associated with seasonal trends of climate, whereas CO₂ and NDEP do not show obvious seasonal difference in EWUE trends. About 66% grid cells show positive annual WUE trends, mainly over mid‐ and high northern latitudes. In these regions, spring climate change has amplified the effect of CO₂ in increasing WUE by more than 0.005 gC m⁻² mm⁻¹ yr⁻¹ for 41% pixels. Multiple regression analysis further shows that the increase in springtime WUE in the northern hemisphere is the result of GPP increasing faster than ET because of the higher temperature sensitivity of GPP relative to ET. The partitioning of annual EWUE to seasonal components provides new insight into the relative sensitivities of GPP and ET to climate, CO_2, and NDEP.     

中国陆地生态系统碳源/汇整合分析

国家尺度陆地生态系统碳收支及其循环过程的研究对于提升地球系统科学与全球变化科学的科技创新能力、提高我国参与应对全球气候变化国际行动和维护国家利益的话语权、保障国家生态安全和改进生态系统管理都具有重要意义。近年来,我国已经在气候变化与陆地生态系统碳循环领域开展了大量的研究工作,主要包括国家清查、生态系统模型模拟、大气反演等手段。然而,由于大尺度陆地生态系统碳源/汇的估算存在很大的不确定性,目前尚未形成国家尺度的陆地生态系统碳源/汇的整合分析。通过搜集已发表的关于中国陆地生态系统及其组分碳源/汇的59篇文献,整合国家清查、生态系统模型模拟、大气反演3种研究手段,分析中国陆地生态系统碳源/汇大小以及时间尺度上的动态变化。结果表明,在1960s-2010s期间中国陆地生态系统碳汇整体呈上升趋势,平均为（0.213±0.030）Pg C/a,其中森林、草地、农田和灌木生态系统碳汇分别为（0.101±0.023）Pg C/a、（0.032±0.007）Pg C/a、（0.043±0.010）Pg C/a和（0.028±0.010）Pg C/a。森林生态系统中的植被碳汇远大于土壤碳汇,然而这种格局在草地和农田生态系统却相反,而且1960s-2010s期间中国主要植被类型的生态系统碳汇总体上随时间呈增加趋势。融合多源数据（地面观测、激光雷达、卫星遥感等）、多尺度数据（样地尺度、站点尺度、区域尺度）以及多手段数据（联网观测、森林清查、模型模拟）,有助于全面准确地评估中国陆地生态系统碳源/汇及其对气候变化的响应。     

Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model

The Lund–Potsdam–Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ) combines process‐based, large‐scale representations of terrestrial vegetation dynamics and land‐atmosphere carbon and water exchanges in a modular framework. Features include feedback through canopy conductance between photosynthesis and transpiration and interactive coupling between these ‘fast’ processes and other ecosystem processes including resource competition, tissue turnover, population dynamics, soil organic matter and litter dynamics and fire disturbance. Ten plants functional types (PFTs) are differentiated by physiological, morphological, phenological, bioclimatic and fire‐response attributes. Resource competition and differential responses to fire between PFTs influence their relative fractional cover from year to year. Photosynthesis, evapotranspiration and soil water dynamics are modelled on a daily time step, while vegetation structure and PFT population densities are updated annually. Simulations have been made over the industrial period both for specific sites where field measurements were available for model evaluation, and globally on a 0.5°° × 0.5°° grid. Modelled vegetation patterns are consistent with observations, including remotely sensed vegetation structure and phenology. Seasonal cycles of net ecosystem exchange and soil moisture compare well with local measurements. Global carbon exchange fields used as input to an atmospheric tracer transport model (TM2) provided a good fit to observed seasonal cycles of CO₂ concentration at all latitudes. Simulated inter‐annual variability of the global terrestrial carbon balance is in phase with and comparable in amplitude to observed variability in the growth rate of atmospheric CO₂. Global terrestrial carbon and water cycle parameters (pool sizes and fluxes) lie within their accepted ranges. The model is being used to study past, present and future terrestrial ecosystem dynamics, biochemical and biophysical interactions between ecosystems and the atmosphere, and as a component of coupled Earth system models.     

The role of amoeboid protists and the microbial community in moss-rich terrestrial ecosystems: biogeochemical implications for the carbon budget and carbon cycle, especially at higher latitudes

Moss-rich terrestrial communities are widely distributed in low- and high-latitude environments, covering vast surface areas in the boreal forests and tundra. The microbial biota in these organic-rich communities may contribute substantially to the carbon budget of terrestrial communities and the carbon cycle on a global scale. Recent research is reported on the carbon content of microbial communities in some temperate and high-latitude moss communities. The total carbon content and potential respiratory carbon dioxide (CO(2)) efflux is reported for bacteria, microflagellates, naked amoebae, and testate amoebae within sampling sites at a northeastern forest and the tundra at Toolik, Alaska. Quantitative models of the predicted total CO(2) efflux from the microbes, based on microscopic observations and enumeration of the microbiota in samples from the research sites, are described and predictions are compared with published field-based data of CO(2) efflux. The significance of the predictions for climate change and global warming are discussed.     

Plant phenolics mediated bottom-up effects of elevated CO2 on Acyrthosiphon pisum and its parasitoid Aphidius avenae

Elevated concentrations of atmospheric CO2 can alter plant secondary metabolites,which play important roles in the interactions among plants,herbivorous insects and natural enemies.However,few studies have examined the cascading effects of host plant secondary metabolites on tri-trophic interactions under elevated CO2(eCO2).In this study,we determined the effects of eCO2 on the growth and foliar phenolics of Medicago truncatula and the cascading effects on two color genotypes oiAcyrthosiphon pisum(pink vs.green)and their parasitoid Aphidius avenae in the field open-top chambers.Our results showed that eCO2 increased photosynthetic rate,nodule number,yield and the total phenolic content of M.truncatula.eCO2 had contrasting effects on two genotypes of A.pisum;the green genotype demonstrated increased population abundance,fecundity,growth and feeding efficiency,while the pink genotype showed decreased fitness and these were closely associated with the foliar genstein content.Furthermore,eCO2 decreased the parasitic rate of A.avenae independent of aphid genotypes.eCO2 prolonged the emergence time and reduced the emergence rate and percentage of females when associated with the green genotype,but little difference,except for increased percentage of females,was observed in A.avenae under eCO2 when associated with the pink genotype,indicating that parasitoids can perceive and discriminate the qualities of aphid hosts.We concluded that eCO2 altered plant phenolics and thus the performance of aphids and parasitoids.Our results indicate that plant phenolics vary by different abiotic and biotic stimuli and could potentially deliver the cascading effects of eCO2 to the higher trophic levels.Our results also suggest that the green genotype is expected to perform better in future eCO2 because of decreased plant resistance after its infestation and decreased parasitic rate.     

Change in terrestrial ecosystem water‐use efficiency over the last three decades

Defined as the ratio between gross primary productivity (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET), ecosystem‐scale water‐use efficiency (EWUE) is an indicator of the adjustment of vegetation photosynthesis to water loss. The processes controlling EWUE are complex and reflect both a slow evolution of plants and plant communities as well as fast adjustments of ecosystem functioning to changes of limiting resources. In this study, we investigated EWUE trends from 1982 to 2008 using data‐driven models derived from satellite observations and process‐oriented carbon cycle models. Our findings suggest positive EWUE trends of 0.0056, 0.0007 and 0.0001 g C m^?2 mm^?1 yr^?1 under the single effect of rising CO₂ (‘CO₂’), climate change (‘CLIM’) and nitrogen deposition (‘NDEP’), respectively. Global patterns of EWUE trends under different scenarios suggest that (i) EWUE‐CO₂ shows global increases, (ii) EWUE‐CLIM increases in mainly high latitudes and decreases at middle and low latitudes, (iii) EWUE‐NDEP displays slight increasing trends except in west Siberia, eastern Europe, parts of North America and central Amazonia. The data‐driven MTE model, however, shows a slight decline of EWUE during the same period (?0.0005 g C m^?2 mm^?1 yr^?1), which differs from process‐model (0.0064 g C m^?2 mm^?1 yr^?1) simulations with all drivers taken into account. We attribute this discrepancy to the fact that the nonmodeled physiological effects of elevated CO₂ reducing stomatal conductance and transpiration (TR) in the MTE model. Partial correlation analysis between EWUE and climate drivers shows similar responses to climatic variables with the data‐driven model and the process‐oriented models across different ecosystems. Change in water‐use efficiency defined from transpiration‐based WUE_t (GPP/TR) and inherent water‐use efficiency (IWUE_t, GPP×VPD/TR) in response to rising CO₂, climate change, and nitrogen deposition are also discussed. Our analyses will facilitate mechanistic understanding of the carbon–water interactions over terrestrial ecosystems under global change.     

Trends and scenarios of the carbon budget in postagricultural Puerto Rico (1936–2060)

Contrary to the general trend in the tropics, Puerto Rico underwent a process of agriculture abandonment during the second half of the 20th century as a consequence of socioeconomic changes toward urbanization and industrialization. Using data on land‐use change, biomass accumulation in secondary forests, and ratios between gross domestic product (GDP) and carbon emissions, we developed a model of the carbon budget for Puerto Rico between 1936 and 2060. As a consequence of land abandonment, forests have expanded rapidly since 1950, achieving the highest sequestration rates between 1980 and 1990. Regardless of future scenarios of demography and land use, sequestration rates will decrease in the future because biomass accumulation decreases with forest age and there is little agricultural land remaining to be abandoned. Due to high per‐capita consumption and population density, carbon emissions of Puerto Rico have increased dramatically and exceeded carbon sequestration during the second half of the 20th century. Although Puerto Rico had the highest percent of reforestation for a tropical country, emissions during the period 1950–2000 were approximately 3.5 times higher than sequestration, and current annual emission is almost nine times the rate of sequestration. Additionally, while sequestration will decrease over the next six decades, current socioeconomic trends suggest increasing emissions unless there are significant changes in energy technology or consumption patterns. In conclusion, socioeconomic changes leading to urbanization and industrialization in tropical countries may promote high rates of carbon sequestration during the decades following land abandonment. Initial high rates of carbon sequestration can balance emissions of developing countries with low emission/GDP ratio. In Puerto Rico, the socioeconomic changes that promoted reforestation also promoted high‐energy consumption, and resulted in a net increase in carbon emissions.     

Diurnal and seasonal variations in stomatal conductance of rice at elevated atmospheric CO2 under fully open‐air conditions

Understanding of leaf stomatal responses to the atmospheric CO₂ concentration, [CO₂], is essential for accurate prediction of plant water use under future climates. However, limited information is available for the diurnal and seasonal changes in stomatal conductance (g_s) under elevated [CO₂]. We examined the factors responsible for variations in g_s under elevated [CO₂] with three rice cultivars grown in an open‐field environment under flooded conditions during two growing seasons (a total of 2140 individual measurements). Conductance of all cultivars was generally higher in the morning and around noon than in the afternoon, and elevated [CO₂] decreased g_s by up to 64% over the 2 years (significantly on 26 out of 38 measurement days), with a mean g_s decrease of 23%. We plotted the g_s variations against three parameters from the Ball‐Berry model and two revised versions of the model, and all parameters explained the g_s variations well at each [CO₂] in the morning and around noon (R² > 0.68), but could not explain these variations in the afternoon (R² < 0.33). The present results provide an important basis for modelling future water use in rice production.     

Agricultural peatland restoration: effects of land‐use change on greenhouse gas (CO2 and CH4) fluxes in the Sacramento‐San Joaquin Delta

Agricultural drainage of organic soils has resulted in vast soil subsidence and contributed to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations. The Sacramento‐San Joaquin Delta in California was drained over a century ago for agriculture and human settlement and has since experienced subsidence rates that are among the highest in the world. It is recognized that drained agriculture in the Delta is unsustainable in the long‐term, and to help reverse subsidence and capture carbon (C) there is an interest in restoring drained agricultural land‐use types to flooded conditions. However, flooding may increase methane (CH₄) emissions. We conducted a full year of simultaneous eddy covariance measurements at two conventional drained agricultural peatlands (a pasture and a corn field) and three flooded land‐use types (a rice paddy and two restored wetlands) to assess the impact of drained to flooded land‐use change on CO₂ and CH₄ fluxes in the Delta. We found that the drained sites were net C and greenhouse gas (GHG) sources, releasing up to 341 g C m^?2 yr^?1 as CO₂ and 11.4 g C m^?2 yr^?1 as CH₄. Conversely, the restored wetlands were net sinks of atmospheric CO₂, sequestering up to 397 g C m^?2 yr^?1. However, they were large sources of CH₄, with emissions ranging from 39 to 53 g C m^?2 yr^?1. In terms of the full GHG budget, the restored wetlands could be either GHG sources or sinks. Although the rice paddy was a small atmospheric CO₂ sink, when considering harvest and CH₄ emissions, it acted as both a C and GHG source. Annual photosynthesis was similar between sites, but flooding at the restored sites inhibited ecosystem respiration, making them net CO₂ sinks. This study suggests that converting drained agricultural peat soils to flooded land‐use types can help reduce or reverse soil subsidence and reduce GHG emissions.