Migration speeds among eleven species of long-distance migrating passerines across Europe, the desert and eastern Africa

Based on phenology, passage and median dates gathered from large number of study sites, we measured autumn and spring migration speeds of eleven long distance migratory passerines in four different ecogeographic sectors: Europe, desert, north-eastern and eastern Africa. Results demonstrate that, during the southward autumn migration, late-departing species, such as lesser whitethroat Sylvia curruca , garden warbler S. borin , spotted flycatcher Muscicapa striata , whitethroat S. borin , and willow warbler Phylloscopus trochilus cover their migration route with a slower average migration speed across Europe than do early migrating species. During spring migration, late-departing species (marsh warbler Acrocephalus palustris , garden warbler, spotted flycatcher, red-backed shrike Lanius collurio ) across north-eastern Africa showed a higher speed than early migrating species. Our results show overall shorter migration duration estimates in spring than autumn. Sector-wise seasonal comparisons of duration indicate that migration journey in the African and desert sectors are covered in a relatively shorter time in spring than in autumn. Periods required to cover the distance between northern latitude breeding grounds and desert during both seasons were equivalent.     

Around the Mediterranean: an extreme example of loop migration in a long‐distance migratory passerine

An important issue in migration research is how small‐bodied passerines pass over vast geographical barriers; in European–African avian migration, these are represented by the Mediterranean Sea and the Sahara Desert. Eastern (passing eastern Mediterranean), central (passing Apennine Peninsula) and western (via western Mediterranean) major migration flyways are distinguished for European migratory birds. The autumn and spring migration routes may differ (loop migration) and there could be a certain level of individual flexibility in how individuals navigate themselves during a single migration cycle. We used light‐level loggers to map migration routes of barn swallows Hirundo rustica breeding in the centre of a wide putative contact zone between the northeastern and southernwestern European populations that differ in migration flyways utilised and wintering grounds. Our data documented high variation in migration patterns and wintering sites of tracked birds (n = 19 individuals) from a single breeding colony, with evidence for loop migration in all but one of the tracked swallows. In general, two migratory strategies were distinguished. In the first, birds wintering in a belt stretching from southcentral to southern Africa that used an eastern route for both the spring and autumn migration, then shifted their spring migration eastwards (anti‐clockwise loops, n = 12). In the second, birds used an eastern or central route to their wintering grounds in central Africa, shifting the spring migration route westward (clockwise loops, n = 7). In addition, we observed an extremely wide clockwise loop migration encompassing the entire Mediterranean, with one individual utilising both the eastern (autumn) and western (spring) migratory flyway during a single annual migration cycle. Further investigation is needed to ascertain whether clockwise migratory loops encircling the entire Mediterranean also occur other small long‐distance passerine species.     

Geographical segregation in Dunlin Calidris alpina populations wintering along the East Atlantic migratory flyway – evidence from mitochondrial DNA analysis

Dunlin Calidris alpina is one of the most abundant shorebirds using coastal habitats in the East Atlantic migratory flyway, that links arctic breeding locations (Greenland to Siberia) with wintering grounds (West Europe to West Africa). Differential migration and winter segregation between populations have been indicated by morphometrics and ringing recoveries. Here, we analyse the potential of genetic markers (mitochondrial DNA – mtDNA) to validate and enhance such findings. We compared mtDNA haplotypes frequencies at different wintering sites (from north-west Europe to West Africa). All birds from West Africa had western (European) haplotypes, while the eastern (Siberian) haplotypes were only present in European winter samples, reaching higher frequencies further north in Europe. Compilation of published results from migrating birds also confirmed these differences, with the sole presence of European haplotypes in Iberia and West Africa and increasingly higher frequencies of Siberian haplotypes from south-west to north-west Europe. Comparison with published haplotype frequencies of breeding populations shows that birds from Greenland, Iceland, and North Europe were predominant in wintering grounds in West Africa, while populations wintering in West Europe originated from more eastern breeding grounds (e.g. North Russia). These results show that genetic markers can be used to enhance the integrative monitoring of wintering and breeding populations, by providing biogeographical evidence that validate the winter segregation of breeding populations.     

Light‐level geolocators reveal migratory connectivity in European populations of pied flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca

Understanding what drives or prevents long‐distance migrants to respond to environmental change requires basic knowledge about the wintering and breeding grounds, and the timing of movements between them. Both strong and weak migratory connectivity have been reported for Palearctic passerines wintering in Africa, but this remains unknown for most species. We investigated whether pied flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca from different breeding populations also differ in wintering locations in west‐Africa. Light‐level geolocator data revealed that flycatchers from different breeding populations travelled to different wintering sites, despite similarity in routes during most of the autumn migration. We found support for strong migratory connectivity showing an unexpected pattern: individuals breeding in Fennoscandia (S‐Finland and S‐Norway) wintered further west compared to individuals breeding at more southern latitudes in the Netherlands and SW‐United Kingdom. The same pattern was found in ring recovery data from sub‐Saharan Africa of individuals with confirmed breeding origin. Furthermore, population‐specific migratory connectivity was associated with geographical variation in breeding and migration phenology: birds from populations which breed and migrate earlier wintered further east than birds from ‘late’ populations. There was no indication that wintering locations were affected by geolocation deployment, as we found high repeatability and consistency in δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N stable isotope ratios of winter grown feathers of individuals with and without a geolocator. We discuss the potential ecological factors causing such an unexpected pattern of migratory connectivity. We hypothesise that population differences in wintering longitudes of pied flycatchers result from geographical variation in breeding phenology and the timing of fuelling for spring migration at the wintering grounds. Future research should aim at describing how temporal dynamics in food availability across the wintering range affects migration, wintering distribution and populations’ capacity to respond to environmental changes.     

Population fluctuations and regulation in great snipe: a time-series analysis

1. During the last centuries, the breeding range of the great snipe Gallinago media has declined dramatically in the western part of its distribution. To examine present population dynamics in the Scandinavian mountains, we collected and analysed a 19-year time series of counts of great snipe males at leks in central Norway, 1987-2005. 2. The population showed large annual fluctuations in the number of males displaying at lek sites (range 45-90 males at the peak of the mating season), but no overall trend. 3. We detected presence of direct density-dependent mechanisms regulating this population. Inclusion of the density-dependent term in a Ricker-type model significantly improved the fit with observed data (evaluated with Parametric Bootstrap Likelihood Ratio tests and Akaike's Information Criterion for small sample size). 4. An analysis of (a number of a priori likely) environmental covariates suggests that the population dynamics were affected by conditions influencing reproduction and survival of offspring during the summer, but not by conditions influencing survival at the wintering grounds in Africa. This is in contrast to many altricial birds breeding in the northern hemisphere, and supports the idea that population dynamics of migratory nidifugous birds are more influenced by conditions during reproduction. 5. Inclusion of these external factors into our model improved the detectability of density dependence. This illustrates that allowing for external effects may increase statistical power of density dependence tests and thus be of particular importance in relatively short time series. 6. In our best model of the population dynamics, two likely density-independent offspring survival covariates explained 47.3% of the variance in great snipe numbers (predation pressure estimated by willow grouse reproductive success and food availability estimated by the amount of precipitation in June), whereas density dependence explained 35.5%. Demographic stochasticity and unidentified environmental stochasticity may account for the remaining 17.2%.     

The pull of the Central Flyway? Veeries breeding in western Canada migrate using an ancestral eastern route

Understanding non‐breeding season movements and identifying wintering areas of different populations of migratory birds is important for establishing patterns of migratory connectivity over the annual cycle. We analyzed archival solar geolocation (N = 5) and global positioning data (N = 1) to investigate migration routes, stopover sites, and wintering areas of a western‐most breeding population of Veeries (Catharus fuscescens) in the Pemberton Valley, British Columbia, Canada. Geolocation data were analyzed using a Bayesian state‐space model to improve likely position estimates. We compared our results with those from a Veery population located ~250 km east across a mountain chain in the Okanagan Valley, British Columbia, and with an eastern population in Delaware, U.S.A. Migrating Veeries from the Pemberton Valley used an eastern trajectory through the Rocky Mountains to the Great Plains to join a central flyway during fall and spring migration, a route similar to that used by Veeries breeding in the Okanagan Valley. However, wintering destinations of Pemberton Valley birds were more varied, with inter‐individual wintering distances ~1000 km greater than birds from the Okanagan Valley population and ~500 km from the previously known winter range of Veeries. The observed eastern migration path likely follows an ancestral route that evolved following the most recent glacial retreat. Consistent with patterns observed from the Okanagan and Delaware populations, Veeries from the Pemberton Valley undertook an intra‐tropical migration on the wintering grounds, but this winter movement differed from those of previously studied populations. Such winter movements may thus be idiosyncratic or show coarse population associations. Intra‐wintering‐ground movements likely occur either in response to seasonal changes in habitat suitability or as a means of optimizing pre‐migratory fueling prior to long‐distance spring movements to North America.     

Searching for potential wintering and migration areas of a Danish Barn Swallow population in South Africa by correlating NDVI with survival estimates

On the basis of correlation analyses between annual Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values in Africa and the annual survival rate estimated for a breeding population of barn swallows Hirundo rustica from Denmark, we identified potential wintering and migration areas in South Africa during December–February and March–May, when barn swallows commonly occur in South Africa. During December–February we identified potential wintering areas only in the western part of South Africa, in the Karoo. Potential areas in the central and eastern parts of the country were only identified during March–May. NDVI values in the Karoo during March–May explained most of the variance in annual adult survival rate of the population. The high ratio of European ringed barn swallows among controlled individuals in the Karoo was similar to the ratio that would be expected based on the number of ringed barn swallows and the population sizes of barn swallows in north-western European breeding populations. The level of this ratio in the Karoo was higher than in any other locality in the central and eastern parts of South Africa and Botswana, indicating that ringed birds from the eastern flyway are absent to a much smaller extent than ringed birds from the western flyway. This approach shows that the NDVI and survival method can focus ringing efforts to regions and areas that are likely to harbour specific breeding populations, thereby helping to identify potential wintering and migration areas for breeding populations of migratory birds.     

Investigating connectivity and seasonal differences in wind assistance in the migration of Common Sandpipers

Many migratory bird species have undergone recent population declines, but there is considerable variation in trends between species and between populations employing different migratory routes. Understanding species-specific migratory behaviours is therefore of critical importance for their conservation. The Common Sandpiper Actitis hypoleucos is an Afro-Palaearctic migratory bird species whose European populations are in decline. We fitted geolocators to individuals breeding in England or wintering in Senegal to determine their migration routes and breeding or non-breeding locations. We used these geolocator data in combination with previously published data from Scottish breeding birds to determine the distributions and migratory connectivity of breeding (English and Scottish) and wintering (Senegalese) populations of the Common Sandpiper, and used simulated random migrations to investigate wind assistance during autumn and spring migration. We revealed that the Common Sandpipers tagged in England spent the winter in West Africa, and that at least some birds wintering in Senegal bred in Scandinavia; this provides insights into the links between European breeding populations and their wintering grounds. Furthermore, birds tagged in England, Scotland and Senegal overlapped considerably in their migration routes and wintering locations, meaning that local breeding populations could be buffered against habitat change, but susceptible to large-scale environmental changes. These findings also suggest that contrasting population trends in England and Scotland are unlikely to be the result of population-specific migration routes and wintering regions. Finally, we found that birds used wind to facilitate their migration in autumn, but less so in spring, when the wind costs associated with their migrations were higher than expected at random. This was despite the wind costs of simulated migrations being significantly lower in spring than in autumn. Indeed, theory suggests that individuals are under greater time pressures in spring than in autumn because of the time constraints associated with reproduction.     

Yellow Wagtail Motacilla flava migration from West Africa to Europe: pointers towards a conservation strategy for migrants on passage

The biology of one passerine migrant, the Yellow Wagtail Motacilla flava, is examined in order to identify factors which need to be considered when attempting to conserve migrants on passage. The distribution of Yellow Wagtails in West Africa, prior to northward (spring) migration, is affected by food supplies and by different racial and sexual responses to environmental factors. Consequently, each breeding population relies on a wide range of sites, but those occupied towards the end of the dry season and ones used as stepping-off points for migration may be particularly vital.
Energetic considerations point towards a non-stop trans-Saharan flight being used rather than a series of short flights with resting stops in the desert. However, adverse conditions during migration could make stop-overs unavoidable. The most direct routes between wintering and breeding areas are preferred, and the initial desert crossing is accomplished at a faster pace than later stages of the journey.
Yellow Wagtails emigrate from West Africa in a sequence related to the onset of spring on their breeding sites, rather than in response to rainfall in Africa: moult, fattening and emigration are probably endogenously controlled. However, competition from African resident birds may also be an important factor affecting the timing of migration.
Races breeding in southern Europe are most likely to be adversely affected by degradation of the Sahel. Empirical evidence suggests that conditions on the wintering grounds are more likely to regulate population size than conditions experienced on migration, but more detailed studies are needed in Africa before sound conservation strategies can be designed.     

Migration patterns and habitat use by passerine and near-passerine migrant birds in eastern Africa

Palaearctic migrant passerines and near-passerines which visit eastern Africa can be divided into six groups based on the latitude of their final wintering area. Species wintering further north in Africa tend (a) to breed in more southern parts of the Palaearctic, (b) to prefer drier habitats and (c) to feed more from the ground than those wintering further south. Many species use quite narrow passage routes through eastern Africa and, for some species, passage is centred further east in spring than in autumn. Southward migration can take more than 4 months from the Palaearctic breeding grounds and many birds stopover in the northern tropics from September to November. By contrast, the return migration takes only about 6 weeks. The timing and strategy of migration within Africa can be broadly related to seasonal patterns of rainfall and vegetation.     

Connecting breeding and wintering grounds of Neotropical migrant songbirds using stable hydrogen isotopes: a call for an isotopic atlas of migratory connectivity

There is an overdue and urgent need to establish patterns of migratory connectivity linking breeding grounds, stopover sites, and wintering grounds of migratory birds. Such information allows more effective application of conservation efforts by applying focused actions along movement trajectories at the population level. Stable isotope methods, especially those using stable hydrogen isotope abundance in feathers (δ²H_f) combined with Bayesian assignment techniques incorporating prior information such as relative abundance of breeding birds, now provide a fast and reliable means of establishing migratory connectivity, especially for Neotropical migrants that breed in North America and molt prior to fall migration. Here we demonstrate how opportunistic sampling of feathers of 30 species of wintering birds in Cuba, Venezuela, Guatemala, Puerto Rico, and Mexico, regions that have typically been poorly sampled for estimating migratory connectivity, can be assigned to breeding areas in North America through both advanced spatial assignment to probability surfaces and through simpler map lookup approaches. Incorporating relative abundance information from the North American Breeding Bird Survey in our Bayesian assignment models generally resulted in a reduction in potential assignment areas on breeding grounds. However, additional tools to constrain longitude such as DNA markers or other isotopes would be desirable for establishing breeding or molt origins of species with broad longitudinal distributions. The isotope approach could act as a rapid means of establishing basic patterns of migratory connectivity across numerous species and populations. We propose a large‐scale coordinated sampling effort on the wintering grounds to establish an isotopic atlas of migratory connectivity for North American Neotropical migrants and suggest that isotopic variance be considered as a valuable metric to quantify migratory connectivity. This initiative could then act as a strategic template to guide further efforts involving stable isotopes, light‐sensitive geolocators, and other technologies.     

High variation reduces the value of feather stable isotope ratios in identifying new wintering areas for aquatic warblers Acrocephalus paludicola in West Africa

Stable isotope analysis of feathers can be useful in the study of seasonal interactions and migratory connectivity in birds. For the Palaearctic–African migration system, however, the lack of isotope data from feathers of known origin in Africa renders the geographic assignment of birds captured on European breeding grounds to potential wintering areas problematic. Rectrices of the threatened aquatic warbler Acrocephalus paludicola grown in Africa were sampled across six European countries to assess whether birds in different breeding populations shared similar isotopic signatures and so were likely to have wintered in the same region in Africa. Freshly grown feathers of aquatic warblers collected at the only known wintering site in Senegal showed high variation in carbon, nitrogen, and hydrogen isotope ratios. Due to similarly high variation in isotope ratios of African‐grown feathers within all breeding populations, it was not possible to determine whether different populations wintered in different regions. However, isotope signatures of 20% of birds captured on European breeding grounds fell outside the range of those captured in Senegal, suggesting a wider wintering distribution than is currently known. We therefore assessed whether the origin of these feathers could be estimated by trying to establish isotopic gradients across sub‐Saharan West Africa. Feathers of three ecologically similar surrogate species were sampled from wetlands across a 3000 km east‐west and a 2000 km north–south transect. Within‐site variation in feather isotope ratios was frequently larger than the difference predicted by gradients across West Africa. Thus, predicting the origin of individual feathers using single‐isotope gradients was not reliable. The large within‐site variability of feather isotope ratios of a habitat specialist species like the aquatic warbler indicates that using feather isotope ratios will require large sample sizes from many locations, and may thus not be an efficient tool in identifying wintering areas of Palaearctic–African migrants.     

Density-Dependent Harvest Modeling for the Eastern Wild Turkey

Abstract Many current wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo) harvest models assume density-independent population dynamics. We developed an alternative model incorporating both nonlinear density-dependence and stochastic density-independent effects on wild turkey populations. We examined model sensitivity to parameter changes in 5% increments and determined mean spring and fall harvests and their variability in the short term (3 yr) and long term (10 yr) from proportional harvesting under these conditions. In the long term, population growth rates were most sensitive to poult:female ratios and the form of density dependence. The nonlinear density-dependent effect produced a population that maximized yield at 40% carrying capacity. The model indicated that a spring or fall proportional harvest could be maximized for fall harvest rates between 0% and 13% of the population, assuming a 15% spring male harvest and 5% spring illegal female kill. Combined spring and fall harvests could be maximized at a 9% fall harvest, under the same assumptions. Variability in population growth and harvest rates increased uncertainty in spring and fall harvests and the probability of overharvesting annual yield, with growth rate variation having the strongest effect. Model simulations suggested fall harvest rates should be conservative (≤9%) for most management strategies.     

Disentangling Migratory Routes and Wintering Grounds of Iberian Near-Threatened European Rollers Coracias garrulus

Long-distance migrants are suffering drastic declines in the last decades. Causes beneath this problem are complex due to the wide spatial and temporal scale involved. We aim to reveal migratory routes, stopover areas, wintering grounds, and migratory strategies for the most southwestern populations of the near-threatened European Roller Coracias garrulus in order to identify conservation key areas for the non-breeding stage of this species. To this end, we used tracking data from seven satellite transmitters fitted to birds breeding in different populations throughout the Iberian Peninsula and four geolocators fitted to individuals in a southeastern Iberian population. Precise satellite data were used to describe daily activity patterns and speed in relation to the main regions crossed during the migration. Individuals from the most southwestern Iberian populations made a detour towards the Atlantic African coast whereas those from northeastern populations followed a straight north-to-south route. We identified important stopover areas in the Sahel belt, mainly in the surroundings of the Lake Chad, and wintering grounds on southwestern Africa farther west than previously reported for the species. Concerning the migratory strategy, satellite data revealed: 1) a mainly nocturnal flying activity, 2) that migration speed depended on the type of crossed habitat, with higher average speed while crossing the desert; and 3) that the migration was slower and lasted longer in autumn than in spring. The studied populations showed weak migratory connectivity, suggesting the confluence of birds from a wide range of breeding grounds in a restricted wintering area. Therefore, we suggest to target on defining precisely key areas for this species and identifying specific threats in them in order to develop an appropriate global conservation programme for the European Roller.     

Individual variation in migratory movements and winter behaviour of Iberian Lesser Kestrels Falco naumanni revealed by geolocators

The population decline of the Lesser Kestrel Falco naumanni has been the subject of studies across its Western Palaearctic breeding range, but little is known about its use of pre‐migratory areas or African wintering quarters. We used geolocators to describe the temporal and spatial patterns of Portuguese Lesser Kestrel migration and wintering behaviour. Data on the complete migration were obtained from four individuals and another three provided further information. Prior to southward migration, Lesser Kestrels showed two different behaviours: northward‐orientated movements to Spain and movements in the proximity of the breeding area. Autumn migration took place mostly in late September; spring departures occurred mainly in the first half of February. Wintering grounds included Senegal, Mauritania and Mali, with individuals overlapping considerably in Senegal. Movements registered within the wintering grounds suggest itinerant behaviour in relation to local flushes of prey. During spring migration, birds crossed the Sahara Desert through Mauritania, Western Sahara and Morocco before passing over the Mediterranean to reach Portugal. Autumn migration lasted 4.8 ± 1.1 days, and spring migration lasted 4.1 ± 0.3 days. The mean daily flight range varied between approximately 300 and 850 km for an entire journey of around 2500 km. Effective protection of roosting sites in both pre‐migratory and wintering areas and maintaining grasshopper populations in Sahelian wintering quarters appear crucial in preserving this threatened migratory raptor across its African–Eurasian flyway. There was no evidence of any deleterious effects of fitting birds with loggers.     

Breeding origin and migration pattern of dunlin (Calidris alpina) revealed by mitochondrial DNA analysis

The large-scale migration of birds has been studied extensively by recoveries of ringed birds. However, there is very little ringing data from the arctic breeding grounds of waders. Here, the migration pattern of the dunlin, Calidris alpina, is studied with population genetic markers, using haplotype frequencies to estimate the breeding origin of migrating and wintering populations. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and restriction analysis of DNA from the mitochondrial control region was used to study the breeding origins of morphologically similar winter populations in the western Palaearctic, and to describe the population structure of the dunlin during winter. Also migrating dunlin from various stopover sites in Europe, Africa and Asia, were analysed with respect to their mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) haplotypes. The genetic markers clearly show that the dunlin has a parallel migration system, with populations breeding in the western Palaearctic wintering mainly in the western part of the wintering range, and dunlin populations breeding further east wintering further east. The results also show that the distance between breeding and wintering area increases eastwards in this region.     

Climatic effects on timing of spring migration and breeding in a long-distance migrant, the pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca

Climate change has advanced the breeding dates of many bird species, but for few species we know whether this advancement is sufficient to track the advancement of the underlying levels of the food chain. For the long-distance migratory pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca the advancement in breeding time has been insufficient to maintain the synchrony with their main food sources. The timing of arrival in the breeding areas from their African wintering grounds is likely to constrain the advancement of breeding date. We hypothesise that this is because in Africa they cannot predict the advancement of spring in their breeding habitat. However, long-distance migrants may advance their arrival time by migrating faster when circumstances en route are favourable. In this study we show that both arrival and breeding date depend on temperatures at their main North African staging grounds, as well as on temperature at the breeding grounds. Male arrival and average laying date were not correlated, but the positive effect of temperature in North Africa on breeding dates suggests that breeding date is indeed constrained by arrival of females. Long-distance migrants thus are able to adjust arrival and hence breeding by faster spring migration, but the degree of adjustment is probably limited as timing schedules in spring are tight. Furthermore, as climate change is affecting temperatures differently along the migratory flyway and the breeding areas, it is unlikely that arrival dates are advanced at the same rate as the timing of breeding should advance, given the advancement of the underlying levels of the food chain.     

Solving a Migration Riddle Using Isoscapes: House Martins from a Dutch Village Winter over West Africa

Background

The ability to connect breeding, stopover and wintering locations of populations of migratory birds greatly enhances our understanding of the phenomenon of migration and improves our chances of effectively conserving these species. Among Palearctic-Afrotropical migratory species, aerial insectivores like the house martin (Delichon urbicum) are sensitive to factors influencing the availability of flying insects, and have declined in recent decades. The strict aerial behaviour of martins severely limits ring recoveries on wintering grounds and so there is a dearth of information on where European breeding populations over-winter in Africa, and the relative effects of population regulation on breeding vs. wintering grounds. We used a newly developed multi-isotope (δ ²H, δ ¹³C, δ ¹⁵N) feather isoscape for Africa together with inferences from summarized ring return data based on longitude, to assign winter origins to birds captured at a breeding colony in The Netherlands.

Principal Findings

Based on isotopic analyses of winter-grown martin feathers, we used a likelihood-based assignment approach to describe potential wintering locations where molt occurred of individual house martins from a Dutch colony by assigning them to four potential isotopically distinct clusters in Africa. We found the overwhelming majority of Dutch martins were assigned to a geographical cluster associated with West Africa.

Conclusions/Significance

The existence of strong isotopic gradients and patterns in African foodwebs that support migratory wildlife allows for the spatial assignment of tissues grown there. The assignment of Dutch house martins to wintering grounds primarily in West Africa was in strong agreement with independent and indirect methods used to infer winter origins of this species based on the association between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in Africa and population patterns in Italy and the United Kingdom. These confirmatory data-sets underscore the importance of suitable habitats in West Africa to the conservation of migratory aerial insectivores and other species.     

Population-scale drivers of individual arrival times in migratory birds

1. In migratory species, early arrival on the breeding grounds can often enhance breeding success. Timing of spring migration is therefore a key process that is likely to be influenced both by factors specific to individuals, such as the quality of winter and breeding locations and the distance between them, and by annual variation in weather conditions before and during migration. 2. The Icelandic black-tailed godwit Limosa limosa islandica population is currently increasing and, throughout Iceland, is expanding into poorer quality breeding areas. Using a unique data set of arrival times in Iceland in different years for individuals of known breeding and wintering locations, we show that individuals breeding in lower quality, recently occupied and colder areas arrive later than those from traditionally occupied areas. The population is also expanding into new wintering areas, and males from traditionally occupied winter sites also arrive earlier than those occupying novel sites. 3. Annual variation in timing of migration of individuals is influenced by large-scale weather systems (the North Atlantic Oscillation), but between-individual variation is a stronger predictor of arrival time than the NAO. Distance between winter and breeding sites does not influence arrival times. 4. Annual variation in timing of migration is therefore influenced by climatic factors, but the pattern of individual arrival is primarily related to breeding and winter habitat quality. These habitat effects on arrival patterns are likely to operate through variation in individual condition and local-scale density-dependent processes. Timing of migration thus appears to be a key component of the intricate relationship between wintering and breeding grounds in this migratory system.     

Climate change, migratory connctivity and changes in laying date and clutch size of the pied flycatcher

We examined long-term (1943–2003) variability in laying dates and clutch sizes in a Finnish population of the pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca Pallas, and analysed whether potential changes were explained by changes in climatic factors at the wintering area in Africa, at migration route or at breeding grounds. Among-year variation in both mean and skewness of laying dates increased, which for mean laying date appeared to be explained by variability of temperatures at the breeding grounds and for skewness by variable temperature trends along the migration route. Pied flycatchers bred earlier in warm springs, but despite a warming trend in pre-laying temperatures, the laying dates tended to delay. Laying dates became continuously later in relation to the phenology of the environment. Mean clutch size decreased with time when mean laying date was controlled for, but the climatic factors did not appear to explain the decrease. The advancement of spring phenology may have shifted some food sources needed for egg-laying, thus leading to later laying and smaller clutches. Variation in clutch size increased when wintering conditions were favourable so that clutch size distribution was skewed with a tail of small clutches when there had been lot of rainfall (more vegetation and insects) in the wintering area. We suggest that when ecological conditions during winter were good, the tail of small clutches represented low-quality individuals that were not able to breed after bad winters. Our analyses demonstrate that measures of spread and symmetry give different information about population level changes than means, and thus complement the understanding of the potential influences of climate change on populations.