9.
Several models used to study the effectiveness of abortion in population limitation are examined. The Keyfitz model, based on the probability that an individual woman will conceive in a given month, is extended and public implications of legal abortions are discussed. A model more appropriate for a population of women rather than a single woman can be developed by relating the probability of conception and the sterile intervals to the number of birth and the number of women in the population. The effectiveness of abortion as a birth control method is studied using this model and includes: 1) abortion effectiveness combined with efficient contraception (95% effective); 2) the sensitivity of abortion to gestation when a contraceptive of lower efficiency is used; 3) these effects modified for prolonged lactation; 4) the effect of changing the monthly probability of conception and the monthly efficiency of contraception. Abortion later in pregnancy is advantageous when efficient contraception is absent. The effectiveness of abortion to gestation is approximately the same whether lactation is included or absent, although abortion is more effective at all gestations and for all contraceptives efficiencies in the absence of lactation. The sensitivity of the effectiveness of abortion to the probability of conception decreases as monthly effectiveness of contraception increases. The probability of conception and the monthly effectiveness of contraception are difficult parameters to measure in the population. The effect of abortion averaged over the entire population at risk of pregnancy is different from its effect on certain subgroups. For U.S. females the probability of conception may be between .06 and .16, and from the model it is indicated that the effectiveness of abortion would be from 1 to 1.13 abortions per live birth. The application of the model suggests that the expenditures for abortion services in this population are a reasonable investment, although investment for efficient contraception is also suggested.
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