Synergistic effects of climate and land‐use change influence broad‐scale avian population declines

Climate and land‐use changes are expected to be the primary drivers of future global biodiversity loss. Although theory suggests that these factors impact species synergistically, past studies have either focused on only one in isolation or have substituted space for time, which often results in confounding between drivers. Tests of synergistic effects require congruent time series on animal populations, climate change and land‐use change replicated across landscapes that span the gradient of correlations between the drivers of change. Using a unique time series of high‐resolution climate (measured as temperature and precipitation) and land‐use change (measured as forest change) data, we show that these drivers of global change act synergistically to influence forest bird population declines over 29 years in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Nearly half of the species examined had declined over this time. Populations declined most in response to loss of early seral and mature forest, with responses to loss of early seral forest amplified in landscapes that had warmed over time. In addition, birds declined more in response to loss of mature forest in areas that had dried over time. Climate change did not appear to impact populations in landscapes with limited habitat loss, except when those landscapes were initially warmer than the average landscape. Our results provide some of the first empirical evidence of synergistic effects of climate and land‐use change on animal population dynamics, suggesting accelerated loss of biodiversity in areas under pressure from multiple global change drivers. Furthermore, our findings suggest strong spatial variability in the impacts of climate change and highlight the need for future studies to evaluate multiple drivers simultaneously to avoid potential misattribution of effects.     

Riding the wave: reconciling the roles of disease and climate change in amphibian declines

We review the evidence for the role of climate change in triggering disease outbreaks of chytridiomycosis, an emerging infectious disease of amphibians. Both climatic anomalies and disease-related extirpations are recent phenomena, and effects of both are especially noticeable at high elevations in tropical areas, making it difficult to determine whether they are operating separately or synergistically. We compiled reports of amphibian declines from Lower Central America and Andean South America to create maps and statistical models to test our hypothesis of spatiotemporal spread of the pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), and to update the elevational patterns of decline in frogs belonging to the genus Atelopus. We evaluated claims of climate change influencing the spread of Bd by including error into estimates of the relationship between air temperature and last year observed. Available data support the hypothesis of multiple introductions of this invasive pathogen into South America and subsequent spread along the primary Andean cordilleras. Additional analyses found no evidence to support the hypothesis that climate change has been driving outbreaks of amphibian chytridiomycosis, as has been posited in the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis. Future studies should increase retrospective surveys of museum specimens from throughout the Andes and should study the landscape genetics of Bd to map fine-scale patterns of geographic spread to identify transmission routes and processes.     

An interaction between climate change and infectious disease drove widespread amphibian declines

Climate change might drive species declines by altering species interactions, such as host–parasite interactions. However, few studies have combined experiments, field data, and historical climate records to provide evidence that an interaction between climate change and disease caused any host declines. A recently proposed hypothesis, the thermal mismatch hypothesis, could identify host species that are vulnerable to disease under climate change because it predicts that cool‐ and warm‐adapted hosts should be vulnerable to disease at unusually warm and cool temperatures, respectively. Here, we conduct experiments on Atelopus zeteki, a critically endangered, captively bred frog that prefers relatively cool temperatures, and show that frogs have high pathogen loads and high mortality rates only when exposed to a combination of the pathogenic chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) and high temperatures, as predicted by the thermal mismatch hypothesis. Further, we tested various hypotheses to explain recent declines experienced by species in the amphibian genus Atelopus that are thought to be associated with B. dendrobatidis and reveal that these declines are best explained by the thermal mismatch hypothesis. As in our experiments, only the combination of rapid increases in temperature and infectious disease could account for the patterns of declines, especially in species adapted to relatively cool environments. After combining experiments on declining hosts with spatiotemporal patterns in the field, our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that widespread species declines, including possible extinctions, have been driven by an interaction between increasing temperatures and infectious disease. Moreover, our findings suggest that hosts adapted to relatively cool conditions will be most vulnerable to the combination of increases in mean temperature and emerging infectious diseases.     

Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990-2080

A comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems over this century is developed, up to 2080 and at a global level, albeit with significant regional detail. To this end an integrated ecological-economic modelling framework is employed, encompassing climate scenarios, agro-ecological zoning information, socio-economic drivers, as well as world food trade dynamics. Specifically, global simulations are performed using the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zone model, in conjunction with IIASAs global food system model, using climate variables from five different general circulation models, under four different socio-economic scenarios from the intergovernmental panel on climate change. First, impacts of different scenarios of climate change on bio-physical soil and crop growth determinants of yield are evaluated on a 5' X 5' latitude/longitude global grid; second, the extent of potential agricultural land and related potential crop production is computed. The detailed bio-physical results are then fed into an economic analysis, to assess how climate impacts may interact with alternative development pathways, and key trends expected over this century for food demand and production, and trade, as well as key composite indices such as risk of hunger and malnutrition, are computed. This modelling approach connects the relevant bio-physical and socio-economic variables within a unified and coherent framework to produce a global assessment of food production and security under climate change. The results from the study suggest that critical impact asymmetries due to both climate and socio-economic structures may deepen current production and consumption gaps between developed and developing world; it is suggested that adaptation of agricultural techniques will be central to limit potential damages under climate change.     

Bird migration times, climate change, and changing population sizes

Past studies of bird migration times have shown great variation in migratory responses to climate change. We used 33 years of bird capture data (1970–2002) from Manomet, Massachusetts to examine variation in spring migration times for 32 species of North American passerines. We found that changes in first arrival dates – the unit of observation used in most studies of bird migration times – often differ dramatically from changes in the mean arrival date of the migration cohort as a whole. In our study, the earliest recorded springtime arrival date for each species occurred 0.20 days later each decade. In contrast, the mean arrival dates for birds of each species occurred 0.78 days earlier each decade. The difference in the two trends was largely explained by declining migration cohort sizes, a factor not examined in many previous studies. We found that changes in migration cohort or population sizes may account for a substantial amount of the variation in previously documented changes in migration times. After controlling for changes in migration cohort size, we found that climate variables, migration distance, and date of migration explained portions of the variation in migratory changes over time. In particular, short-distance migrants appeared to respond to changes in temperature, while mid-distance migrants responded particularly strongly to changes in the Southern Oscillation Index. The migration times of long-distance migrants tended not to change over time. Our findings suggest that previously reported changes in migration times may need to be reinterpreted to incorporate changes in migration cohort sizes.     

From climate change to population change: the need to consider annual life cycles

Detailed studies of organisms' life cycles are important for understanding population response to climate change. However, in general one cannot make strong inference about the overall population response from such studies, unless the full annual cycle of the species in question is covered. Here, we present a theoretical framework for the understanding of population response to climate change. Owing to the combined effects of demography, intraspecific feedback, and a possible use of environmental cues, environmentally induced changes in survival and/or reproduction do not necessarily lead to a straightforward change in population size. This framework can guide our thinking about how abiotic conditions work their way to the population level. More specifically, it can help us to identify mechanisms that need to be examined when predicting population change in response to expected climate change.     

Coping with fast climate change in northern ecosystems: mechanisms underlying the population‐level response of a specialist avian predator

Northern ecosystems are facing unprecedented climate modifications, which pose a major threat for arctic species, especially the specialist predator guild. However, the mechanisms underlying responses of predators to climate change remain poorly understood. Climate can influence fitness parameters of predators either through reduced reproduction or survival following adverse weather conditions, or via changes in the population dynamics of their main prey. Here, we combined three overlapping long‐term datasets on the breeding density and parameters of a rodent‐specialist predator, the rough‐legged buzzard Buteo lagopus, its main prey population dynamics and climate variables, collected in subarctic areas of Finland and Norway, to assess the impact of changing climate on the predator reproductive response. Rough‐legged buzzards responded to ongoing climate change by advancing their laying date (0.1 d yr^?1 over the 21 yr of the study period), as a consequence of earlier snowmelt. However, we documented for the same period a decrease in breeding success, which principally resulted from an indirect effect of changes in the dynamics of their main prey, i.e. grey‐sided voles Microtus oeconomus, and not from the expected negative effect of unfavorable weather conditions during the brood‐rearing period on nestling survival. Additionally, we showed the striking impact of autumn and winter weather conditions on vole population growth rates in subarctic ecosystems, with a strong positive correlation between mean snow depth in autumn and winter and both winter and summer population growth rates. Our results highlighted that, in northern ecosystems, ongoing climate change has the potential to impact specialist predator species through two mechanistic linkages, which may in the long‐run, threaten the viability of their populations, and lead to potential severe cascading trophic effects at the ecosystem level.     

Dietary guild composition and disaggregation of avian assemblages under climate change

Climate change is expected to cause geographic redistributions of species. To the extent that species within assemblages have different niche requirements, assemblages may no longer remain intact and dis‐ and reassemble at current or new geographic locations. We explored how climate change projected by 2100 may transform the world's avian assemblages (characterized at a 110 km spatial grain) by modeling environmental niche‐based changes to their dietary guild structure under 0, 500, and 2000 km‐dispersal distances. We examined guild structure changes at coarse (primary, high‐level, and mixed consumers) and fine (frugivores, nectarivores, insectivores, herbivores, granivores, scavengers, omnivores, and carnivores) ecological resolutions to determine whether or not geographic co‐occurrence patterns among guilds were associated with the magnitude to which guilds are functionally resolved. Dietary guilds vary considerably in their global geographic prevalence, and under broad‐scale niche‐based redistribution of species, these are projected to change very heterogeneously. A nondispersal assumption results in the smallest projected changes to guild assemblages, but with significant losses for some regions and guilds, such as South American insectivores. Longer dispersal distances are projected to cause greater degrees of disassembly, and lead to greater homogenization of guild composition, especially in northern Asia and Africa. This arises because projected range gains and losses result in geographically heterogeneous patterns of guild compensation. Projected decreases especially of primary and mixed consumers most often are compensated by increases in high‐level consumers, with increasing uncertainty about these outcomes as dispersal distance and degree of guild functional resolution increase. Further exploration into the consequences of these significant broad‐scale ecological functional changes at the community or ecosystem level should be increasingly on the agenda for conservation science.     

Continental-scale tree population response to rapid climate change, competition and disturbance

Aim  Using a new approach to analyse fossil pollen data, we investigate temporal and spatial patterns in Populus ( poplar, cottonwood, aspen) from the Late Glacial to the present at regional to continental scales.
Location  North America.
Methods  We extracted data on the timing and magnitude of the maximum value of Populus pollen from each pollen diagram in the North American Pollen Database (NAPD). The information was plotted in histograms of 150-year bins to identify times when Populus was abundant on the landscape. We also mapped the maximum values to identify spatial patterns and their causes.
Results  Our analyses show that there have been several periods since the Late Glacial when Populus was abundant on the landscape: (1) from 12.35 to 12.65 kyr  bp , in eastern North America, largely in response to the opening of the forest following the onset of the Younger Dryas; (2) from 10.85 to 11.75 kyr  bp , following the termination of the Younger Dryas; and (3) during the last 150 years, as land was cleared for agricultural use, especially in the midwestern United States.
Main conclusion  Since the Late Glacial, changes in the abundance of Populus were caused more by the effects of abrupt climate change on its major competitors, rather than the direct effects of climate on Populus itself.     

Livestock and food security: vulnerability to population growth and climate change

Livestock production is an important contributor to sustainable food security for many nations, particularly in low‐income areas and marginal habitats that are unsuitable for crop production. Animal products account for approximately one‐third of global human protein consumption. Here, a range of indicators, derived from FAOSTAT and World Bank statistics, are used to model the relative vulnerability of nations at the global scale to predicted climate and population changes, which are likely to impact on their use of grazing livestock for food. Vulnerability analysis has been widely used in global change science to predict impacts on food security and famine. It is a tool that is useful to inform policy decision making and direct the targeting of interventions. The model developed shows that nations within sub‐Saharan Africa, particularly in the Sahel region, and some Asian nations are likely to be the most vulnerable. Livestock‐based food security is already compromised in many areas on these continents and suffers constraints from current climate in addition to the lack of economic and technical support allowing mitigation of predicted climate change impacts. Governance is shown to be a highly influential factor and, paradoxically, it is suggested that current self‐sufficiency may increase future potential vulnerability because trade networks are poorly developed. This may be relieved through freer trade of food products, which is also associated with improved governance. Policy decisions, support and interventions will need to be targeted at the most vulnerable nations, but given the strong influence of governance, to be effective, any implementation will require considerable care in the management of underlying structural reform.     

The effect of climate change on the correlation between avian life-history traits

The ultimate reason why birds should advance their phenology in response to climate change is to match the shifting phenology of underlying levels of the food chain. In a seasonal environment, the timing of food abundance is one of the crucial factors to which birds should adapt their timing of reproduction. They can do this by shifting egg‐laying date (LD), and also by changing other life‐history characters that affect the period between laying of the eggs and hatching of the chicks. In a long‐term study of the migratory Pied Flycatcher, we show that the peak of abundance of nestling food (caterpillars) has advanced during the last two decades, and that the birds advanced their LD. LD strongly correlates with the timing of the caterpillar peak, but in years with an early food peak the birds laid their eggs late relative to this food peak. In such years, the birds advance their hatching date by incubating earlier in the clutch and reducing the interval between laying the last egg to hatching of the first egg, thereby partly compensating for their relative late LD. Paradoxically, they also laid larger clutches in the years with an early food peak, and thereby took more time to lay (i.e. one egg per day). Clutch size therefore declined more strongly with LD in years with an early food peak. This stronger response is adaptive because the fitness of an egg declined more strongly with date in early than in late years. Clearly, avian life‐history traits are correlated and Pied Flycatchers apparently optimize over the whole complex of the traits including LD, clutch size and the onset of incubation. Climate change will lead to changing selection pressures on this complex of traits and presumably the way they are correlated.     

气候变化与生物多样性之间的复杂关系和反馈机制

气候变化与生物多样性丧失是人类社会正在经历的两大变化。气候变化影响生物多样性的方方面面, 是导致生物多样性丧失的一个主要驱动因子; 反过来, 生物多样性丧失会加剧气候变化。因此, 阻止甚至扭转气候变化和生物多样性丧失是当前人类社会亟需解决的全球性问题,但我们对气候变化与生物多样性之间的复杂关系和反馈机制尚缺乏清晰认识。本文总结了近年气候变化与生物多样性变化的研究进展, 重点概述了不同组织层次、空间尺度和维度的生物多样性对气候变化的响应和反馈等相关领域的研究进展和存在的主要问题。结果发现多数研究关注气候变化对生物多样性的直接影响, 涉及到生物多样性的不同组织层次、维度和营养级, 但针对气候变化间接影响的研究仍然较少, 机理研究同样需要加强; 生物多样性对生态系统功能影响的环境依赖和尺度推演、生物多样性对生态系统多功能性的作用机理和量化方法是当前研究面临的挑战; 生物多样性对生态系统响应气候变化的作用机制尚无统一的认识; 生物多样性对气候变化的正、负反馈效应是国内外研究的盲点。最后, 本文展望了未来发展方向和需要解决的关键科学问题, 包括多因子气候变化对生物多样性的影响; 减缓和适应气候变化的措施如何惠益于生物多样性保护; 生物多样性与生态系统功能的理论如何应用到现实世界; 生物多样性保护对实现碳中和目标的贡献。     

Ultraviolet radiation, toxic chemicals and amphibian population declines

Abstract. As part of an overall ‘biodiversity crisis’, many amphibian populations are in decline throughout the world. Numerous factors have contributed to these declines, including habitat destruction, pathogens, increasing ultraviolet (UV) radiation, introduced non‐native species and contaminants. In this paper we review the contribution of increasing UV radiation and environmental contamination to the global decline of amphibian populations. Both UV radiation and environmental contaminants can affect amphibians at all life stages. Exposure to UV radiation and to certain contaminants can kill amphibians and induce sublethal affects in embryos, larvae and adults. Moreover, UV radiation and contaminants may interact with one another synergistically. Synergistic interactions of UV radiation with contaminants can enhance the detrimental effects of the contaminant and UV radiation.     

Flying in the face of climate change: a review of climate change, past, present and future

The distribution and abundance of birds is known to depend critically upon climate variability at a range of temporal and spatial scales. In this paper we review historical changes in climate in the context of what is known about climate variability over the last millennium, with particular reference to the British Isles. The climate of Britain is now warmer than it has been in at least 340 years, with the 1990s decade 0.5 °C warmer than the 1961–1990 average. In addition, the frequency of cold days (mean temperature below 0 °C), particularly during March and November, has declined and there has been a marked shift in the seasonality of precipitation, with winters becoming substantially wetter and summers becoming slightly drier. Current understanding is that the rate of future warming is likely to accelerate with more frequent and more intense summer heatwaves, milder winters, an increase in winter rainfall, an increased risk of winter river floods, and an increase in mean sea-level and associated coastal flooding. All of these aspects of climate change are likely to impact on coastal birds. A range of potential future climate scenarios for the British Isles are presented derived from recently completed global climate model experiments. For migrant bird species, changes in the British climate have also to be seen within the context of remote climate change in both the breeding and the overwintering grounds.     

植被变化对气候的反馈机制及调节效应

植被通过光合作用固定大气中的CO₂来减缓温室效应,同时植被也通过改变地表能量收支影响温室效应。在过去的气候-植被研究中,大多关注气候变化对植被的影响,而植被对气候反馈的研究相对较少。植被通过调节地表能量收支、水通量等重要地气过程影响局地、区域乃至全球气候,在气候变化中的作用十分重要。因此,需要厘清植被对气候的反馈效应机制及其结果,并识别其地域差异。从生物地球物理和生物地球化学过程两方面分析植被与气候之间的作用机制,对全球及关键区域内植被变化对局地、区域乃至全球的气候反馈效应进行了系统总结：（1）生物地球物理反馈的区域特征明显,生物地球化学反馈则表现在全球尺度上,二者相互作用但难以统一;（2）植被破坏带来的气候影响在气温效应方面与生态系统的类型及地理分布相关：热带森林破坏带来增温效应,北方森林破坏带来降温效应,温带森林破坏则会通过增加森林反照率抵消丢失的固碳降温效应,气温效应表现不明显;（3）当前研究对关键过程机制考虑不够完善,不同研究方法的结果差异较大,且缺乏高质量观测数据的验证;同时考虑生物地球物理和生物地球化学的净气候反馈研究尚无法支撑植树造林对气候变化单一减缓作用的常规理解。本文可为科学评估植树造林对气候变化作用的方向与强度提供理论依据。     

Carbon sequestration in peatland: patterns and mechanisms of response to climate change

The response of peatlands to changes in the climatic water budget is crucial to predicting potential feedbacks on the global carbon (C) cycle. To gain insight on the patterns and mechanisms of response, we linked a model of peat accumulation to a model of peatland hydrology, then applied these models to empirical data spanning the past 5000 years for the large mire Store Mosse in southern Sweden. We estimated parameters for C sequestration and height growth by fitting the peat accumulation model to two age profiles. Then, we used independent reconstruction of climate wetness and model reconstruction of bog height to examine changes in peatland hydrology. Reconstructions of C sequestration showed two distinct patterns of behaviour: abrupt increases associated with major transitions in vegetation and dominant Sphagnum species (fuscum, rubellum–fuscum and magellanicum stages), and gradual decreases associated with increasing humification of newly formed peat. Carbon sequestration rate ranged from a minimum of 14 to a maximum of 72 g m^?2 yr^?1, with the most rapid changes occurring in the past 1000 years. Vegetation transitions were associated with periods of increasing climate wetness during which the hydrological requirement for increased seepage loss was met by rise of the water table closer to the peatland surface, with the indirect result of enhancing peat formation. Gradual decline in C sequestration within each vegetation stage resulted from enhanced litter decay losses from the near‐surface layer. In the first two vegetation stages, peatland development (i.e., increasing surface gradient) and decreasing climate wetness drove a gradual increase in thickness of the unsaturated, near‐surface layer, reducing seepage water loss and peat formation. In the most recent vegetation stage, the surface diverged into a mosaic of wet and dry microsites. Despite a steady increase in climate wetness, C sequestration declined rapidly. The complexity of response to climate change cautions against use of past rates to estimate current or to predict future rates of peatland C sequestration. Understanding interactions among hydrology, surface structure and peat formation are essential to predicting potential feedback on the global C cycle.     

Weather-dependent survival: implications of climate change for passerine population processes

Understanding demographic processes will be essential to construct robust models of population responses to climate change. We show that survival is related to the strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation in five out of ten British resident passerine species, and explore the importance of biologically more specific variables (duration of winter frosts and snow periods; occurrence of cold, wet days; spring temperature; and summer drought). The most important variables differed between species in relation to differences in foraging strategy. In almost all cases, first-year survival was influenced by weather more than was the survival of adult birds. Particularly vulnerable species, such as the Wren Troglodytes troglodytes , may exhibit a 25% reduction in juvenile survival rates due to adverse weather within the range experienced in the last 30 years; variation in survival by 10% or more is commonplace in most species. Thus, climate influences on food availability may provide the mechanism by which populations will alter under changed climatic conditions, though the presence of density dependence may reduce the impact of this on long-term population trajectories.     

Meeting Europe's climate change commitments: quantitative estimates of the potential for carbon mitigation by agriculture

Under the Kyoto Protocol, the European Union is committed to a reduction in CO₂ emissions to 92% of baseline (1990) levels during the first commitment period (2008–2012). The Kyoto Protocol allows carbon emissions to be offset by demonstrable removal of carbon from the atmosphere. Thus, land‐use/land‐management change and forestry activities that are shown to reduce atmospheric CO₂ levels can be included in the Kyoto targets. These activities include afforestation, reforestation and deforestation (article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol) and the improved management of agricultural soils (article 3.4). In this paper, we estimate the carbon mitigation potential of various agricultural land‐management strategies and examine the consequences of European policy options on carbon mitigation potential, by examining combinations of changes in agricultural land‐use/land‐management. We show that no single land‐management change in isolation can mitigate all of the carbon needed to meet Europe's climate change commitments, but integrated combinations of land‐management strategies show considerable potential for carbon mitigation. Three of the combined scenarios, one of which is an optimal realistic scenario, are by themselves able to meet Europe's emission limitation or reduction commitments. Through combined land‐management scenarios, we show that the most important resource for carbon mitigation in agriculture is the surplus arable land. We conclude that in order to fully exploit the potential of arable land for carbon mitigation, policies will need to be implemented to allow surplus arable land to be put into alternative long‐term land‐use. Of all options examined, bioenergy crops show the greatest potential for carbon mitigation. Bioenergy crop production also shows an indefinite mitigation potential compared to other options where the mitigation potential is finite. We suggest that in order to exploit fully the bioenergy option, the infrastructure for bioenergy production needs to be significantly enhanced before the beginning of the first Kyoto commitment period in 2008. It is not expected that Europe will attempt to meet its climate change commitments solely through changes in agricultural land‐use. A reduction in CO₂‐carbon emissions will be key to meeting Europe's Kyoto targets, and forestry activities (Kyoto Article 3.3) will play a major role. In this study, however, we demonstrate the considerable potential of changes in agricultural land‐use and ‐management (Kyoto Article 3.4) for carbon mitigation and highlight the policies needed to promote these agricultural activities. As all sources of carbon mitigation will be important in meeting Europe's climate change commitments, agricultural carbon mitigation options should be taken very seriously.