Direct and indirect effects of winter harshness on the survival of Mallards Anas platyrhynchos in northwest Europe

To understand population dynamics it is necessary to understand vital rates, which may be affected by a wide range of factors including environmental variables such as weather. Weather conditions can affect birds’ vital rates directly through increased mortality due to impaired conditions, or indirectly via changes in body condition and/or behaviour. Most understanding of direct and indirect effects of weather comes from studies of breeding birds, whereas the situation in non‐breeding periods is less clear. Here, we analysed annual survival of non‐breeding Mallard Anas platyrhynchos, the most hunted waterfowl species in Europe, and assessed whether survival is related directly to winter harshness and/or indirectly via changes in winter recovery distributions. Recovery data on Mallards, initially marked in southeast Sweden, were analysed with an information‐theoretic approach using program mark . Over 10 000 Mallards were marked in two time periods, 1964–1982 and 2002–2008, of which 13.3 and 4.7%, respectively, were later recovered. Mallards had lower annual survival in the early trapping period (0.58–0.63) than in the later period (0.69–0.71), with no clear effects of sex, age or year. Within each study period, winter harshness did not directly correlate with survival. However, milder winters may have contributed indirectly to higher survival in the second period, as winter harshness data were correlated with the distances to recovery positions for females, and also because winter recovery areas have shifted northeast during the past decades, possibly indicating a shortened migratory distance. Migration is costly, and there is therefore a likely linkage between migration behaviour and survival of dabbling ducks, in which direct as well as indirect effects of winter harshness may play a role. Other factors, such as hunting pressure, are also likely to have changed in the past decades, and may also have contributed to improved survival of Mallards in northwest Europe.     

Robust estimation of survival and contribution of captive‐bred Mallards Anas platyrhynchos to a wild population in a large‐scale release programme

The survival of captive‐bred individuals from release into the wild to their first breeding season is crucial to assess the success of reintroduction or translocation programmes, and to assess their potential impact of wild populations. However, assessing the survival of captive‐bred individuals following their release is often complicated by immediate dispersal once in the wild. Here, we apply Lindberg's robust design model, a method that incorporates emigration from the study site, to obtain true estimates of survival of captive‐bred Mallards Anas platyrhynchos, a common duck species released on a large scale in Europe since the 1970s. Overall survival rate from release in July until the onset of the next breeding season in April was low (0.18 ± 0.07 se) and equivalent to half the first‐year survival of local wild Mallards. Higher overall detectability and temporary emigration during the hunting period revealed movements in response to hunting pressure. Such low survival of released Mallards during their first year may help prevent large‐scale genetic mixing with the wild population. Nevertheless, by combining our results with regional waterfowl counts, we estimated that a minimum of 34% of the Mallards in the region were of captive origin at the onset of the breeding season. Although most released birds quickly die, restocking for hunting may be of sufficient magnitude to affect the wild population through genetic homogenization or loss of local adaptation. Robust design protocols allow for the estimation of true survival estimates by controlling for permanent and temporary emigration and may require only a moderate increase in fieldwork effort.     

Eco‐evolution on the edge during climate change

We urgently need to predict species responses to climate change to minimize future biodiversity loss and ensure we do not waste limited resources on ineffective conservation strategies. Currently, most predictions of species responses to climate change ignore the potential for evolution. However, evolution can alter species ecological responses, and different aspects of evolution and ecology can interact to produce complex eco‐evolutionary dynamics under climate change. Here we review how evolution could alter ecological responses to climate change on species warm and cool range margins, where evolution could be especially important. We discuss different aspects of evolution in isolation, and then synthesize results to consider how multiple evolutionary processes might interact and affect conservation strategies. On species cool range margins, the evolution of dispersal could increase range expansion rates and allow species to adapt to novel conditions in their new range. However, low genetic variation and genetic drift in small range‐front populations could also slow or halt range expansions. Together, these eco‐evolutionary effects could cause a three‐step, stop‐and‐go expansion pattern for many species. On warm range margins, isolation among populations could maintain high genetic variation that facilitates evolution to novel climates and allows species to persist longer than expected without evolution. This ‘evolutionary extinction debt’ could then prevent other species from shifting their ranges. However, as climate change increases isolation among populations, increasing dispersal mortality could select for decreased dispersal and cause rapid range contractions. Some of these eco‐evolutionary dynamics could explain why many species are not responding to climate change as predicted. We conclude by suggesting that resurveying historical studies that measured trait frequencies, the strength of selection, or heritabilities could be an efficient way to increase our eco‐evolutionary knowledge in climate change biology.     

Half the story: Thermal effects on within‐host infectious disease progression in a warming climate

Immune defense is temperature dependent in cold‐blooded vertebrates (CBVs) and thus directly impacted by global warming. We examined whether immunity and within‐host infectious disease progression are altered in CBVs under realistic climate warming in a seasonal mid‐latitude setting. Going further, we also examined how large thermal effects are in relation to the effects of other environmental variation in such a setting (critical to our ability to project infectious disease dynamics from thermal relationships alone). We employed the three‐spined stickleback and three ecologically relevant parasite infections as a “wild” model. To generate a realistic climatic warming scenario we used naturalistic outdoors mesocosms with precise temperature control. We also conducted laboratory experiments to estimate thermal effects on immunity and within‐host infectious disease progression under controlled conditions. As experimental readouts we measured disease progression for the parasites and expression in 14 immune‐associated genes (providing insight into immunophenotypic responses). Our mesocosm experiment demonstrated significant perturbation due to modest warming (+2°C), altering the magnitude and phenology of disease. Our laboratory experiments demonstrated substantial thermal effects. Prevailing thermal effects were more important than lagged thermal effects and disease progression increased or decreased in severity with increasing temperature in an infection‐specific way. Combining laboratory‐determined thermal effects with our mesocosm data, we used inverse modeling to partition seasonal variation in Saprolegnia disease progression into a thermal effect and a latent immunocompetence effect (driven by nonthermal environmental variation and correlating with immune gene expression). The immunocompetence effect was large, accounting for at least as much variation in Saprolegnia disease as the thermal effect. This suggests that managers of CBV populations in variable environments may not be able to reliably project infectious disease risk from thermal data alone. Nevertheless, such projections would be improved by primarily considering prevailing thermal effects in the case of within‐host disease and by incorporating validated measures of immunocompetence.     

Post‐breeding movements of Wood Storks in Brazil and Argentina

Seasonal migration and the dispersal of juvenile and adult Wood Storks (Mycteria americana) after breeding have been documented in the United States, but little is known about the post‐breeding movements of Wood Storks in South America. Our objective was to identify the locations of post‐breeding areas used by Wood Storks banded as nestlings in breeding colonies in Brazil by analyzing banding data. During the period from 1984 to 2007, 2543 nestlings were banded at breeding colonies in three regions of Brazil, with most (94%) banded in the Pantanal wetland in west‐central Brazil. Seventeen bands were subsequently recovered, with most (14) recovered in southern Brazil and northern Argentina. The mean distance between banding and recovery sites was 1265 km. Our results suggest that Wood Stork movements from breeding areas in Brazil are, as also reported in the United States, in response to changing water levels. The rainy season begins at the end of the breeding season and, in apparent response to rising water levels, Wood Storks in our study moved to drier areas further south with shallower water where they can forage more efficiently. Because only a small percentage of the area where Wood Stork bands were recovered in our study is currently protected, measures are needed to prevent habitat destruction and preserve wetland habitats used by Wood Storks during the post‐breeding period in southern Brazil and Argentina.     

Non‐synonymous SNPs in MC1R gene are associated with the extended black variant in domestic ducks (Anas platyrhynchos)

In this study, we performed a sequence characterization of the duck melanocortin 1 receptor (alpha‐melanocyte stimulating hormone receptor) (MC1R) gene to analyze the relationship between MC1R polymorphism and the extended black variant in domestic ducks based on the extended black (E) and non‐extended black (e⁺) allele hypothesis of the duck MC1R gene. Both c.52G>A and c.376G>A substitutions are highly associated with the duck extended black variant (P < 0.01), but the novel c.52G>A substitution is more of a fit for the allele hypothesis of the duck MC1R gene.     

Survival costs of within‐ and between‐season mate change in the European blackbird Turdus merula

Many studies of socially monogamous birds discuss the adaptive role of between‐season partner change, but only a handful of them refer to the benefits of pair fidelity in terms of increased survival. Moreover, there are no studies describing the benefits of within‐season mate retention. Our data relating to an urban population of European blackbirds Turdus merula enabled us to test the dependence of survival on pair faithfulness. Because blackbirds divorce within and between seasons, we were able to test the influence of pair faithfulness on their within‐ and between‐season survival and mate fidelity. For this purpose, we used a multievent capture–mark–recapture (MECMR) statistical model, which is based on recapture rates and different pair states (faithful to mate, paired with new partner, or dead). Our study indicated that between‐ and within‐season survival depends on pair states: pair‐bond duration increases survival to the next capture occasion in both sexes. We found that the pair‐bond duration to the current partner increased the chances of being with the same partner during the next breeding occasion, although we failed to find any within‐season pair‐bond influence for females. Our results showed sex differences in mating at the end of the season: females had a much smaller chance of breeding with the current new partner in the next year. This study has demonstrated that within‐ and between‐season survival is dependent on mate retention, and we discuss this in the context of how searching for a new partner could affect the birds’ survival.     

Multi‐factor climate change effects on insect herbivore performance

The impact of climate change on herbivorous insects can have far‐reaching consequences for ecosystem processes. However, experiments investigating the combined effects of multiple climate change drivers on herbivorous insects are scarce. We independently manipulated three climate change drivers (CO₂, warming, drought) in a Danish heathland ecosystem. The experiment was established in 2005 as a full factorial split‐plot with 6 blocks × 2 levels of CO₂ × 2 levels of warming × 2 levels of drought = 48 plots. In 2008, we exposed 432 larvae (n = 9 per plot) of the heather beetle (Lochmaea suturalis Thomson ), an important herbivore on heather, to ambient versus elevated drought, temperature, and CO₂ (plus all combinations) for 5 weeks. Larval weight and survival were highest under ambient conditions and decreased significantly with the number of climate change drivers. Weight was lowest under the drought treatment, and there was a three‐way interaction between time, CO₂, and drought. Survival was lowest when drought, warming, and elevated CO₂ were combined. Effects of climate change drivers depended on other co‐acting factors and were mediated by changes in plant secondary compounds, nitrogen, and water content. Overall, drought was the most important factor for this insect herbivore. Our study shows that weight and survival of insect herbivores may decline under future climate. The complexity of insect herbivore responses increases with the number of combined climate change drivers.     

Potential impacts of climate change on the distributions and diversity patterns of European mammals

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts an increase in global temperatures of between 1.4°C and 5.8°C during the 21st century, as a result of elevated CO₂ levels. Using bioclimatic envelope models, we evaluate the potential impact of climate change on the distributions and species richness of 120 native terrestrial non-volant European mammals under two of IPCC’s future climatic scenarios. Assuming unlimited and no migration, respectively, our model predicts that 1% or 5–9% of European mammals risk extinction, while 32–46% or 70–78% may be severely threatened (lose > 30% of their current distribution) under the two scenarios. Under the no migration assumption endemic species were predicted to be strongly negatively affected by future climatic changes, while widely distributed species would be more mildly affected. Finally, potential mammalian species richness is predicted to become dramatically reduced in the Mediterranean region but increase towards the northeast and for higher elevations. Bioclimatic envelope models do not account for non-climatic factors such as land-use, biotic interactions, human interference, dispersal or history, and our results should therefore be seen as first approximations of the potential magnitude of future climatic changes.     

Quantifying components of risk for European woody species under climate change

Estimates of species extinction risk under climate change are generally based on differences in present and future climatically suitable areas. However, the locations of potentially suitable future environments (affecting establishment success), and the degree of climatic suitability in already occupied and new locations (affecting population viability) may be equally important determinants of risk. A species considered to be at low risk because its future distribution is predicted to be large, may actually be at high risk if these areas are out of reach, given the species' dispersal and migration rates or if all future suitable locations are only marginally suitable and the species is unlikely to build viable populations in competition with other species. Using bioclimatic models of 17 representative European woody species, we expand on current ways of risk assessment and suggest additional measures based on (a) the distance between presently occupied areas and areas predicted to be climatically suitable in the future and (b) the degree of change in climatic suitability in presently occupied and unoccupied locations. Species of boreal and temperate deciduous forests are predicted to face higher risk from loss of climatically suitable area than species from warmer and drier parts of Europe by 2095 using both the moderate B1 and the severe A1FI emission scenario. However, the average distance from currently occupied locations to areas predicted suitable in the future is generally shorter for boreal species than for southern species. Areas currently occupied will become more suitable for boreal and temperate species than for Mediterranean species whereas new suitable areas outside a species' current range are expected to show greater increases in suitability for Mediterranean species than for boreal and temperate species. Such additional risk measures can be easily derived and should give a more comprehensive picture of the risk species are likely to face under climate change.     

Flight ability and reproductive development in newly‐emerged pine weevil Hylobius abietis and the potential effects of climate change

• 1 Adult pine weevils Hylobius abietis emerge from conifer root‐stumps, on which larvae develop, over an extended period during summer and autumn. Newly‐emerged weevils were tested for their ability to fly and assessed for wing muscle and reproductive development. In addition, the effect of summer–autumn maturation feeding on reproductive development was assessed in field bioassays.
• 2 There was considerable variation in development between newly‐emerged weevils that was related to the timing of emergence. The first weevils, emerging in early July, weighed less than later‐emerging ones, had undeveloped flight muscles and did not fly. Over the emergence period, wing muscle size and flight ability increased markedly, with 50–60% flying by mid‐September. Differences between emerging adults are likely to have been affected by temporal changes in the quality of the bark on which the larvae feed.
• 3 Reproductive development lagged behind that of wing muscles but, in early August, there was a rapid increase in the proportion of weevils with immature eggs and a corresponding increase in oocyte size. However, although wing muscles were fully formed in later‐emerging weevils, immature eggs were only approximately 10% of the volume of mature eggs.
• 4 In field bioassays of summer–autumn maturation feeding, eggs continued to develop and some weevils laid mature eggs. Feeding and development during the pre‐overwinter period is likely to influence winter survival and also dispersal and reproduction in the following spring.
• 5 The potential effects of climate change on the weevil life cycle are briefly discussed. Weevils are likely to benefit from the higher temperatures and later autumns predicted under climate change, resulting in an increase in damage to transplants.

     

Predicted impact of climate change on European bats in relation to their biogeographic patterns

There has been considerable recent interest concerning the impact of climate change on a wide range of taxa. However, little is known about how the biogeographic affinities of taxa may affect their responses to these impacts. Our main aim was to study how predicted climate change will affect the distribution of 28 European bat species grouped by their biogeographic patterns as determined by a spatial Principal Component Analysis. Using presence‐only modelling techniques and climatic data (minimum temperature, average temperature, precipitation, humidity and daily temperature range) for four different climate change scenarios (IPCC scenarios ranging from the most extreme A1FI, A2, B2 to the least severe, B1), we predict the potential geographic distribution of bat species in Europe grouped according to their biogeographic patterns for the years 2020–2030, 2050–2060 and 2090–2100. Biogeographic patterns exert a great influence on a species' response to climate change. Bat species more associated with colder climates, hence northern latitudes, could be more severely affected with some extinctions predicted by the end of the century. The Mediterranean and Temperate groups seem to be more tolerant of temperature increases, however, their projections varied considerably under different climate change scenarios. Scenario A1FI was clearly the most detrimental for European bat diversity, with several extinctions and declines in occupied area predicted for several species. The B scenarios were less damaging and even predicted that some species could increase their geographical ranges. However, all models only took into account climatic envelopes whereas available habitat and species interactions will also probably play an important role in delimiting future distribution patterns. The models may therefore generate ‘best case’ predictions about future changes in the distribution of European bats.     

Estimating dispersal distributions at multiple scales: within‐colony and among‐colony dispersal rates,distances and directions in European Shags Phalacrocorax aristotelis

Knowledge of the rate, distance and direction of dispersal within and among breeding areas is required to understand and predict demographic and genetic connectivity and resulting population and evolutionary dynamics. However dispersal rates, and the full distributions of dispersal distances and directions, are rarely comprehensively estimated across all spatial scales relevant to wild populations. We used re‐sightings of European Shags Phalacrocorax aristotelis colour‐ringed as chicks on the Isle of May (IoM), UK, to quantify rates, distances and directions of dispersal from natal to subsequent breeding sites both within IoM (within‐colony dispersal) and across 27 other breeding colonies covering 1045 km of coastline (among‐colony dispersal). Additionally, we used non‐breeding season surveys covering 895 km of coastline to estimate breeding season detection probability and hence potential bias in estimated dispersal parameters. Within IoM, 99.6% of individuals dispersed between their natal and observed breeding nest‐site. The distribution of within‐colony dispersal distances was right‐skewed; mean distance was shorter than expected given random settlement within IoM, yet some individuals dispersed long distances within the colony. The distribution of within‐colony dispersal directions was non‐uniform but did not differ from expectation given the spatial arrangement of nest‐sites. However, 10% of all 460 colour‐ringed adults that were located breeding had dispersed to a different colony. The maximum observed dispersal distance (170 km) was much smaller than the maximum distance surveyed (690 km). The distribution of among‐colony dispersal distances was again right‐skewed. Among‐colony dispersal was directional, and differed from random expectation and from the distribution of within‐colony dispersal directions. Non‐breeding season surveys suggested that the probability of detecting a colour‐ringed adult at its breeding location was high in the northeastern UK (98%). Estimated dispersal rates and distributions were therefore robust to incomplete detection. Overall, these data demonstrate skewed and directionally divergent dispersal distributions across small (within‐colony) and large (among‐colony) scales, indicating that dispersal could create genetic and demographic connectivity within the study area.     

The potential effects of climate change on winter mortality in England and Wales

In Britain death rates from several important causes, particularly circulatory and respiratory diseases, rise markedly during the colder winter months. This close association between temperature and mortality suggests that climate change as a result of global warming may lead to a future reduction in excess winter deaths. This paper gives a brief introductory review of the literature on the links between cold conditions and health, and statistical models are subsequently developed of the associations between temperature and monthly mortality rates for the years 1968 to 1988 for England and Wales. Other factors, particularly the occurrence of influenza epidemics, are also taken into account. Highly significant negative associations were found between temperature and death rates from all causes and from chronic bronchitis, pneumonia, ischaemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease. The statistical models developed from this analysis were used to compare death rates for current conditions with those that might be expected to occur in a future warmer climate. The results indicate that the higher temperatures predicted for 2050 might result in nearly 9000 fewer winter deaths each year with the largest contribution being from mortality from ischaemic heart disease. However, these preliminary estimates might change when further research is able to make into account a number of additional factors affecting the relationship between mortality and climate.     

Evaluating within‐population variability in behavior and demography for the adaptive potential of a dispersal‐limited species to climate change

Multiple pathways exist for species to respond to changing climates. However, responses of dispersal‐limited species will be more strongly tied to ability to adapt within existing populations as rates of environmental change will likely exceed movement rates. Here, we assess adaptive capacity in Plethodon cinereus, a dispersal‐limited woodland salamander. We quantify plasticity in behavior and variation in demography to observed variation in environmental variables over a 5‐year period. We found strong evidence that temperature and rainfall influence P. cinereus surface presence, indicating changes in climate are likely to affect seasonal activity patterns. We also found that warmer summer temperatures reduced individual growth rates into the autumn, which is likely to have negative demographic consequences. Reduced growth rates may delay reproductive maturity and lead to reductions in size‐specific fecundity, potentially reducing population‐level persistence. To better understand within‐population variability in responses, we examined differences between two common color morphs. Previous evidence suggests that the color polymorphism may be linked to physiological differences in heat and moisture tolerance. We found only moderate support for morph‐specific differences for the relationship between individual growth and temperature. Measuring environmental sensitivity to climatic variability is the first step in predicting species' responses to climate change. Our results suggest phenological shifts and changes in growth rates are likely responses under scenarios where further warming occurs, and we discuss possible adaptive strategies for resulting selective pressures.     

Critical indirect effects of climate change on sub‐Antarctic ecosystem functioning

Sub‐Antarctic islands represent critical breeding habitats for land‐based top predators that dominate Southern Ocean food webs. Reproduction and molting incur high energetic demands that are sustained at the sub‐Antarctic Prince Edward Islands (PEIs) by both inshore (phytoplankton blooms; “island mass effect”; autochthonous) and offshore (allochthonous) productivity. As the relative contributions of these sustenance pathways are, in turn, affected by oceanographic conditions around the PEIs, we address the consequences of climatically driven changes in the physical environment on this island ecosystem. We show that there has been a measurable long‐term shift in the carbon isotope signatures of the benthos inhabiting the shallow shelf region of the PEIs, most likely reflecting a long‐term decline in enhanced phytoplankton productivity at the islands in response to a climate‐driven shift in the position of the sub‐Antarctic Front. Our results indicate that regional climate change has affected the balance between allochthonous and autochthonous productivity at the PEIs. Over the last three decades, inshore‐feeding top predators at the islands have shown a marked decrease in their population sizes. Conversely, population sizes of offshore‐feeding predators that forage over great distances from the islands have remained stable or increased, with one exception. Population decline of predators that rely heavily on organisms inhabiting the inshore region strongly suggest changes in prey availability, which are likely driven by factors such as fisheries impacts on some prey populations and shifts in competitive interactions among predators. In addition to these local factors, our analysis indicates that changes in prey availability may also result indirectly through regional climate change effects on the islands' marine ecosystem. Most importantly, our results indicate that a fundamental shift in the balance between allochthonous and autochthonous trophic pathways within this island ecosystem may be detected throughout the food web, demonstrating that the most powerful effects of climate change on marine systems may be indirect.     

Forecasting the combined effects of climate and land use change on Mexican bats

Aim

Climate and land use change are among the most important threatening processes driving biodiversity loss, especially in the tropics. Although the potential impacts of each threat have been widely studied in isolation, few studies have assessed the impacts of climate and land cover change in combination. Here, we evaluate the exposure of a large mammalian clade, bats, to multiple scenarios of environmental change and dispersal to understand potential consequences for biodiversity conservation.

Location

Mexico.

Methods

We used ensemble species distribution models to forecast changes in environmental suitability for 130 bat species that occur in Mexico by 2050s under four dispersal assumptions and four combined climate and land use change scenarios. We identified regions with the strongest projected impacts for each scenario and assessed the overlap across scenarios.

Results

The combined effects of climate and land use change will cause an average reduction in environmental suitability for 51% of the species across their range, regardless of scenario. Overall, species show a mean decrease in environmental suitability in at least 46% of their current range in all scenarios of change and dispersal. Climate scenarios had a higher impact on species environmental suitability than land use scenarios. There was a spatial overlap of 43% across the four environmental change scenarios for the regions projected to have the strongest impacts.

Main conclusions

Combined effects of future environmental change may result in substantial declines in environmental suitability for Mexican bats even under optimistic scenarios. This study highlights the vulnerability of megadiverse regions and an indicator taxon to human disturbance. The consideration of combined threats can make an important difference in how we react to changes to conserve our biodiversity as they pose different challenges.