Threats and opportunities for freshwater conservation under future land use change scenarios in the United States

Freshwater ecosystems provide vital resources for humans and support high levels of biodiversity, yet are severely threatened throughout the world. The expansion of human land uses, such as urban and crop cover, typically degrades water quality and reduces freshwater biodiversity, thereby jeopardizing both biodiversity and ecosystem services. Identifying and mitigating future threats to freshwater ecosystems requires forecasting where land use changes are most likely. Our goal was to evaluate the potential consequences of future land use on freshwater ecosystems in the coterminous United States by comparing alternative scenarios of land use change (2001–2051) with current patterns of freshwater biodiversity and water quality risk. Using an econometric model, each of our land use scenarios projected greater changes in watersheds of the eastern half of the country, where freshwater ecosystems already experience higher stress from human activities. Future urban expansion emerged as a major threat in regions with high freshwater biodiversity (e.g., the Southeast) or severe water quality problems (e.g., the Midwest). Our scenarios reflecting environmentally oriented policies had some positive effects. Subsidizing afforestation for carbon sequestration reduced crop cover and increased natural vegetation in areas that are currently stressed by low water quality, while discouraging urban sprawl diminished urban expansion in areas of high biodiversity. On the other hand, we found that increases in crop commodity prices could lead to increased agricultural threats in areas of high freshwater biodiversity. Our analyses illustrate the potential for policy changes and market factors to influence future land use trends in certain regions of the country, with important consequences for freshwater ecosystems. Successful conservation of aquatic biodiversity and ecosystem services in the United States into the future will require attending to the potential threats and opportunities arising from policies and market changes affecting land use.     

Land cover diversity increases predator aggregation and consumption of prey

A lower diversity of land cover types is purported to decrease arthropod diversity in agroecosystems and is dependent on patterns of land use and fragmentation. Ants, important providers of ecosystem services such as biological control, are susceptible to landscape‐level changes. We determined the relationships between land cover diversity and fragmentation on the within‐field spatial associations of ants to pests and resulting predation events by combining mapping and molecular tools. Increased land cover diversity and decreased fragmentation increased ant abundance, spatial association to pests and predation. Land cover diversity and fragmentation were more explanatory than land cover types. Even so, specific land cover types, such as deciduous forest, influenced ant and pest diversity more so than abundance. These results indicate that geospatial techniques and molecular gut content analysis can be combined to determine the role of land use in influencing predator–prey interactions and resulting predation events in agroecosystems.     

Anticipating potential biodiversity conflicts for future biofuel crops in South Africa: incorporating spatial filters with species distribution models

Liquid biofuel production will likely have its greatest impact through the large‐scale changes in land use that will be required to meet the production of this energy source. In this study, we develop a framework which integrates species distribution models, land cover, land capability and various biodiversity conservation data to identify natural areas with (i) a potentially high risk of transformation for biofuel production and (ii) potential impact to biodiversity conservation areas. The framework was tested in the Eastern Cape of South Africa, a region which has been earmarked for the cultivation of biofuels. We expressly highlight the importance of biodiversity conservation data that enhance the protected area network to limit potential losses by comparing the overlap of areas likely to become cultivated with (i) protected areas; (ii) biodiversity hot spots not currently protected; and (iii) ‘ecological corridors’ (areas deemed important for the migration of species and linkages between important biodiversity areas). Results indicate that the introduction of spatial filters reduced available land from 54% to 45%. Including all biodiversity scenarios reduced available land to 15% of the Eastern Cape should avoiding conflict with biodiversity conservation areas be prioritized. The assumption that agriculturally marginal land offers a unique opportunity to be converted to biofuel crops does not consider the biodiversity value attached to these areas. We highlight that decisions relating to large‐scale transformation and changes in land cover need to take account of broader ecological processes. Determining the spatial extent of threats to biodiversity facilitates the analysis of spatial conflict. This article demonstrates a proactive approach for anticipating likely habitat transformation and provides an objective means of mitigating potential conflict with existing land use and biodiversity.     

土地整理的生态系统服务价值评估与生态设计策略——以吉林省大安市土地整理项目为例

土地整理作为土地利用变化的重要驱动因素,显著改变土地利用和景观格局,对区域生态系统功能及其服务价值产生影响.本文以吉林省大安市的土地整理项目为例,利用生态服务价值模型计算了村域、镇域和县域尺度下土地整理区的生态服务价值及其总量变化.结果表明: 以增加耕地为目标的土地整理项目易造成草地和湿地等具有较高生态服务价值的地类减少,导致不同尺度下土地整理区生态服务价值总量出现不同程度的下降.村域尺度下,整理后研究区总的生态服务价值为796.14万元,较整理前减少10.5%;镇域尺度下,整理后总的生态服务价值为84301.26万元,较整理前减少14.2%;县域尺度下,整理后总的生态服务价值为120585.76万元,较整理前减少33.1%.根据土地整理的生态服务价值评估,从提高生态功能入手,最后提出了土地整理的景观生态设计策略,以期为土地整理的持续发展提供决策依据.     

基于生态系统服务价值变化的焉耆盆地环境与经济协调发展

运用土地利用/覆被生态系统服务价值估算模型并结合生态与经济协调度,定量分析焉耆盆地1985、1990、1996、2000、2005和2011年土地利用/覆被变化引起的生态系统服务价值变化,并对研究区环境与经济协调发展的水平及区域差异进行评估.结果表明: 1985-2011年,焉耆盆地的湿地、水域、建设用地、耕地和沙地面积均增加;而草地、盐碱地和林地面积均减少;焉耆盆地的生态系统服务总价值呈逐渐增加趋势.其中,水域和耕地对生态系统服务总价值的贡献率最大,草地和林地对生态系统服务总价值的贡献呈明显下降.研究区生态经济的发展总体上处于低度冲突和低度协调水平的状态,对区域水土资源实行合理与有效的利用是实现焉耆盆地生态系统服务功能维持、发展与经济可持续、协调发展的关键.
     

Spatial co‐localisation of extreme weather events: a clear and present danger

Extreme weather events have become a dominant feature of the narrative surrounding changes in global climate with large impacts on ecosystem stability, functioning and resilience; however, understanding of their risk of co‐occurrence at the regional scale is lacking. Based on the UK Met Office’s long‐term temperature and rainfall records, we present the first evidence demonstrating significant increases in the magnitude, direction of change and spatial co‐localisation of extreme weather events since 1961. Combining this new understanding with land‐use data sets allowed us to assess the likely consequences on future agricultural production and conservation priority areas. All land‐uses are impacted by the increasing risk of at least one extreme event and conservation areas were identified as the hotspots of risk for the co‐occurrence of multiple event types. Our findings provide a basis to regionally guide land‐use optimisation, land management practices and regulatory actions preserving ecosystem services against multiple climate threats.     

2030年闽三角城市群土地利用变化对生态系统水源涵养服务的影响

生态系统水源涵养服务作为水资源得以持续的基础和保障,正持续遭受着人类活动的干扰和影响,土地利用变化作为主要的方式之一,对水源涵养的影响广泛而且深远。运用InVEST模型模拟了闽三角城市群2015年和2030年的水源涵养情景,发现到2030年闽三角城市群区域内水源涵养量总体会下降0.24×10⁸ m³;对比发现：土地利用变化对水源涵养的影响主要主要表现在变化面积、变化方向、作用强度以及面积补偿作用四个方面。首先面积变化方面,水源涵养量同用地类型的面积大小正相关,但二者的变化量并不正相关;其次变化方向方面,相比变化为城市生态系统和水域生态系统而言,变化为自然生态系统和农业生态系统的土地利用变化更有利于生态系统水源涵养;再次,土地利用变化对水源涵养产生作用的强度由强及弱以此为林地、其他土地、草地、农田、建设用地、水域及滩涂;最后,面积变化后的补偿作用方面,由于不同用地类型水源涵养能力和面积变化量的差异,由农田、林地、草地及其他土地面积下降导致的水源涵养量损失并不能通过建设用地、水域及滩涂用地类型面积的增加得以完全补偿。     

Role of land cover changes for atmospheric CO2 increase and climate change during the last 150 years

We assess the role of changing natural (volcanic, aerosol, insolation) and anthropogenic (CO₂ emissions, land cover) forcings on the global climate system over the last 150 years using an earth system model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER‐2. We apply several datasets of historical land‐use reconstructions: the cropland dataset by Ramankutty & Foley (1999) (R&F), the HYDE land cover dataset of Klein Goldewijk (2001) , and the land‐use emissions data from Houghton & Hackler (2002) . Comparison between the simulated and observed temporal evolution of atmospheric CO₂ and δ¹³CO₂ are used to evaluate these datasets. To check model uncertainty, CLIMBER‐2 was coupled to the more complex Lund–Potsdam–Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model. In simulation with R&F dataset, biogeophysical mechanisms due to land cover changes tend to decrease global air temperature by 0.26°C, while biogeochemical mechanisms act to warm the climate by 0.18°C. The net effect on climate is negligible on a global scale, but pronounced over the land in the temperate and high northern latitudes where a cooling due to an increase in land surface albedo offsets the warming due to land‐use CO₂ emissions. Land cover changes led to estimated increases in atmospheric CO₂ of between 22 and 43 ppmv. Over the entire period 1800–2000, simulated δ¹³CO₂ with HYDE compares most favourably with ice core during 1850–1950 and Cape Grim data, indicating preference of earlier land clearance in HYDE over R&F. In relative terms, land cover forcing corresponds to 25–49% of the observed growth in atmospheric CO₂. This contribution declined from 36–60% during 1850–1960 to 4–35% during 1960–2000. CLIMBER‐2‐LPJ simulates the land cover contribution to atmospheric CO₂ growth to decrease from 68% during 1900–1960 to 12% in the 1980s. Overall, our simulations show a decline in the relative role of land cover changes for atmospheric CO₂ increase during the last 150 years.     

Land cover dynamics of different topographic conditions in Beijing,China

Topographic conditions play an important role in controlling land cover dynamic processes.In this study,remotely sensed data and the geographic information system were applied to analyze the changes in land cover along topographic gradients from 1978 to 2001 in Beijing,a rapidly urbanized mega city in China.The study was based on five periods of land cover maps derived from remotely sensed data:Landsat MSS for 1978,Landsat TM for 1984,"1992,1996 and 2001,and the digital elevation model (DEM) derived from 1:250,000 topographic map.The whole area was divided into ten land cover types:conifer forest,broadleaf forest,mixed forest,shrub,brushwood,meadow,farmland,built-up,water body and bare land.The results are summarized as follows.(1) Shrub,forest,farmland and builtup consist of the main land cover types of the Beijing area.The most significant land cover change from 1978 to 2001 was the decrease of the farmland and expansion of the builtup area.Farmland decreased from 6354 to 3813 km2 in the 23 years,while the built-up area increased from 421 to 2642 km2.Meanwhile,the coverage of forest increased from 17.2% to 24.7% of the total area.The conversion matrix analysis indicated that the transformation of farmland to the built-up area was the most significant process and afforestation was the primary cause of the replacement of shrub to forest.(2) Topographic conditions are of great importance to the distribution of land cover types and the process of land cover changes.Elevation has an intensive impact on the distribution of land cover types.The area below 100 m mostly consists of farmland and built-up areas,while the area above 100 m is mainly covered by shrub and forest.Shrub has the maximum frequency in areas between 100 and 1000 m,while forest has dominance in areas above 800 m.According to the analysis of land cover changes in different ranges of elevation,the greatest change below 100 m was the process of urbanization.The process of the main land cover change occurred above 100 m was the transformation from shrub to forest.This result was consistent with the vertical change of natural vegetation distribution in Beijing.(3) Slope has a great influence on the distribution of land cover.Farmland and built-up areas are mostly distributed in fiat areas,while shrub and forest occupy steeper areas compared with other land cover types.Forest frequency increased with the increasing slope.Land cover changes differed from the slope gradients.In the plain area,the land cover change occurred as the result of urbanization.With the increasing of the slope gradient,afforestation,which converts shrub to forest,was the process of the primary land cover change.     

汶川县生态系统服务对景观格局及其变化的响应

景观格局及其变化是影响生态系统服务供应与维持的主要原因之一,也是生态系统服务管理与景观空间配置优化的基础。基于30 m分辨率土地利用数据,统计汶川县2000—2015年多种景观格局指数和碳固定、水源涵养、土壤保持3种生态系统服务的变化,划分等级探究生态系统服务对景观格局及其变化的响应。研究结果表明:1)汶川县整体景观趋于破碎化、斑块形状复杂化,斑块异质性增加,且主要是在林地、草地和耕地之间转换;2)对于生态系统服务,碳固定在全域内有所减少,而大部分区域水源涵养和土壤保持呈增长趋势;3)不同生态系统服务对景观格局的响应存在差异,不仅表现在指标上,也体现在程度上,如碳固定对斑块形状指数(Landscape Shape Index,LSI)响应较为明显,而对蔓延度指数(Contagion Index,CONTAG)敏感性较差;4)并非所有景观格局变化均会引起生态系统服务变化,尺度也会对结果造成影响。本研究通过生态系统服务对景观格局的响应分析,可为区域景观管理的相关评估提供借鉴。     

地市尺度气候调节服务评估——以福州市为例

生态系统服务是衔接生态系统功能和人类福利的桥梁,气候调节服务在生态系统服务中占有极其重要的地位。对气候调节服务发生的全过程进行评估,对科学开展生态系统服务评估具有重要意义。本研究以福州市为案例,开展地市尺度气候调节服务评估,分析气候调节服务在行政单元、地类尺度上的时空变化特征。结果表明: 2015、2018年,福州市气候调节服务总实物量分别为4.01×10¹² MJ(价值量6139.44亿元,GDP为5618.08亿元)和4.66×10¹² MJ(价值量7140.02亿元,GDP为7856.81亿元),气候调节服务价值大致与当年GDP相当。主要的土地利用/覆被类型是森林、耕地、水域,分别占福州市国土面积的57%、15%和9%;水域对福州市气候调节服务贡献最大,2018年贡献度超过60%,高于林地(12%)及耕地(13%)。建成区、东部农耕区域气候调节服务价值较低。2015、2018年,福州市土地利用/覆被变化面积为1805.5 km²,变化最大的用地类型是耕地、林地,主要的土地利用转移方向是耕地与林地、林地与园地、耕地与城镇村及工矿用地之间的转化;气候调节服务总实物量变化了6.74×10¹¹ MJ,相应的价值变化量为1035.8亿元;气候调节服务变化集中在闽侯、闽清、永泰等中西部地区,以及罗源、福清等西部山区;水域的气候调节服务变化最剧烈,水域类型转化会产生极为强烈的气候调节服务变化,远高于其他用地类型转换的效果。     

Impacts of forest cover change on ecosystem services in high Andean mountains

Land conversion affects the delivery of ecosystem goods and services. In this study, we used a 50 years time series of land cover maps to assess the potential impacts of forest cover changes on ecosystem services. A multi-source data integration strategy was followed to reduce inconsistencies in land cover change detection that result from the comparison of historical aerial photographs and satellite images. Our forest cover change analysis highlighted a shift from net deforestation to net reforestation in the early 1990s, consistent with the forest transition theory. When taking the nature of forest cover changes into account, our data show that the areal increase of the forested area was not associated with an improvement in ecological conditions. The overall capacity of the landscape to deliver ecosystem services dropped steadily by 16% over the 50 years’ study period. Conversion of native forests to agricultural land was associated with the strongest decline in ecosystem services. Conversion of natural grasslands into pine plantations mostly led to negative and probably irreversible impacts on the delivery of ecosystem services. Conversion of degraded agricultural lands into pine plantations led to an improvement in ecological conditions. An effective spatial targeting of forestation programs has the potential to maximize the environmental benefits that forest plantations may offer while minimizing their environmental harm.     

Land cover dynamics of different topographic conditions in Beijing, China

Topographic conditions play an important role in controlling land cover dynamic processes. In this study, remotely sensed data and the geographic information system were applied to analyze the changes in land cover along topographic gradients from 1978 to 2001 in Beijing, a rapidly urbanized mega city in China. The study was based on five periods of land cover maps derived from remotely sensed data: Landsat MSS for 1978, Landsat TM for 1984, 1992, 1996 and 2001, and the digital elevation model (DEM) derived from 1:250,000 topographic map. The whole area was divided into ten land cover types: conifer forest, broadleaf forest, mixed forest, shrub, brushwood, meadow, farmland, built-up, water body and bare land. The results are summarized as follows. (1) Shrub, forest, farmland and builtup consist of the main land cover types of the Beijing area. The most significant land cover change from 1978 to 2001 was the decrease of the farmland and expansion of the builtup area. Farmland decreased from 6354 to 3813 km2 in the 23 years, while the built-up area increased from 421 to 2642 km2. Meanwhile, the coverage of forest increased from 17.2% to 24.7% of the total area. The conversion matrix analysis indicated that the transformation of farmland to the built-up area was the most significant process and afforestation was the primary cause of the replacement of shrub to forest. (2) Topographic conditions are of great importance to the distribution of land cover types and the process of land cover changes. Elevation has an intensive impact on the distribution of land cover types. The area below 100 m mostly consists of farmland and built-up areas, while the area above 100 m is mainly covered by shrub and forest. Shrub has the maximum frequency in areas between 100 and 1000 m, while forest has dominance in areas above 800 m. According to the analysis of land cover changes in different ranges of elevation, the greatest change below 100 m was the process of urbanization. The process of the main land cover change occurred above 100 m was the transformation from shrub to forest. This result was consistent with the vertical change of natural vegetation distribution in Beijing. (3) Slope has a great influence on the distribution of land cover. Farmland and built-up areas are mostly distributed in flat areas, while shrub and forest occupy steeper areas compared with other land cover types. Forest frequency increased with the increasing slope. Land cover changes differed from the slope gradients. In the plain area, the land cover change occurred as the result of urbanization. With the increasing of the slope gradient, afforestation, which converts shrub to forest, was the process of the primary land cover change. __________ Translated from Journal of Plant Ecology, 2006, 30(2): 239–251 [译自: 植物生态学报]     

Land use changes and associated environmental impacts on the Mediterranean shallow Lake Stymfalia, Greece

Land cover and land use changes affect ecological landscape functions and processes. Land use changes mainly caused by human activities, is a common reason for wetlands degradation worldwide. Lake Stymfalia, located at Peloponnese, southern Greece, is an ancient wetland with a great ecological value. Lake Stymfalia has been severely degraded and transformed during the past 60 years due to agricultural activities in the surrounding areas and watercourses alterations. In this context, we investigated the land cover/ use changes and the role of the reed beds in the terrestrialization process of this shallow wetland. This particular effort utilized remotely sensed data and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) techniques to estimate land use alterations for the period 1945–1996. Patch related landscape indices were generated to analyze impacts on landscape features. Spatial and thematic information concerning the surface area and the major land cover types of the lake for years 1945, 1960, 1972, 1987, 1992, and 1996 was obtained from aerial photographs and land surveys of the area, and was stored in the GIS database. The 1996 map was ground verified, corrected and updated to 2004 conditions. From the spatio-temporal analysis of the stored data, a permanent decrease of the open water surface has been observed between the years 1945 and 1996. The results indicated that the reed beds expanded dramatically, increasing by 89.3%, and is the predominant aquatic vegetation of the whole wetland. Open water areas and wet meadows decreased by 53.7 and 96.5% respectively. Landscape analyses and, in particular, the use of selected landscape metrics, proved useful for detecting and quantitatively characterising dynamic ecological processes. As land cover/use analysis of the wetland has shown much serious environmental degradation, conservation measures should be undertaken urgently.     

Impact of land use and tenure changes on the Kitenden wildlife corridor,Amboseli Ecosystem,Kenya

This study assesses the ecological pressure exerted by changing land use and tenure on the Kitenden wildlife corridor, a critical cross‐border link between the Amboseli and Kilimanjaro national parks. The implications on viability of the two high‐value protected areas and their respective dispersal areas are both negative and serious. The extent of land use change and its impacts were assessed through household and vegetation surveys, while wildlife abundance was measured using transect walks. Approximately 30% of the study area has shifted from community to private land ownership over the last two decades. Except for baboon and vervet monkey, most wildlife avoided the cultivated area. Vegetation composition on the noncultivated area has been greatly altered by intense wildlife and livestock use, where mean herbaceous vegetation cover differed significantly among range‐plant categories (F_{3, 524} = 29.015, p < 0.05). The frequency of increaser I (21.4%) differs greatly from that of decreaser and forbs, at 8.3% and 7.4%, respectively Tree recruitment was low, with a significant difference in mean density among age classes (F_{2, 110} = 3.663, p < 0.05). Only through land leasing agreements between landowners and conservation organisations, and a widely supported land use plan, can the spread of cultivation be controlled and complete cessation of wildlife movement be prevented.     

深圳市大鹏半岛土地利用变化对植被覆盖动态的影响

城市化背景下的植被覆盖动态研究对于区域生态保护工作具有重要的指导意义.利用深圳市1995-2007年的遥感数据以及1996和2007年土地变更调查资料,基于归一化植被指数轨迹追踪分析和叠图代数计算方法,对大鹏半岛植被覆盖动态类型及其空间分异、土地利用变化结构和格局特征以及土地利用变化与植被覆盖动态之间的响应关系进行研究.结果表明：1995-2007年,研究区65%的地区植被覆盖发生显著改变,植被覆盖状况总体趋于好转;城市化和商品农业发展是该区土地利用动态变化的主要成因,研究时段内31%的地表发生了用地功能转变;土地利用变化是区内植被覆盖发生改变的重要成因之一,约35%的植被覆盖出现退降过程区域与土地功能转变有关;55%的用地功能转变区域因机械干扰导致植被覆盖退化,但至研究期末,大多数退化区域已经进入植被覆盖显著改善阶段.     

Combined land cover changes and habitat occupancy to understand corridor status of Laljhadi-Mohana wildlife corridor,Nepal

Corridor design is a centripetal conservation tool to facilitate movement between fragmented patches. Increases in anthropogenic activity have caused degradation in forest connectivity, influencing animal movement to a small degree. Laljhadi-Mohana wildlife corridor (LMWC), a corridor between Shuklaphanta National Park (Nepal) and Dudhwa National Park (India) created to be used by Panthera tigris and Elephas maximus in western Nepal, is under pressure of anthropogenic change. Using current knowledge, we analyzed land cover changes (LCC) of LMWC between 2002 and 2012. We used ERDAS IMAGINE 9.2 and Arc GIS 9.2 to process satellite images, and occupancy survey to assess status of corridor. We classified land cover into dense forest, sparse forest, cultivation, water bodies, grassland, expose surfaces, and sand bank as structural attributes of the corridor. Our analysis found dense forest area was reduced by 18.35% in a decade while cultivation and sparse forest increased by 10.15% and 8.89%, respectively. Illegal forest encroachment, resource extraction, grazing pressure, invasive species, and flood were major drivers of forest change. The null occupancy model estimated the highest detection probability of Elephas maximus (0.48 ± 0.08) and the lowest of Axis axis (0.20 ± 0.08). Incorporating site covariates improved occupancy estimates of Sus scrofa (0.82), Axis axis (0.76), Elephas maximus (0.76), Boselaphus tragocamelus (0.66), and Panthera pardus (0.55). Distance to cultivation was the most influential covariate, supported by the expansion of cultivated land in the corridor. LMWC is a functional wildlife corridor despite a decline in forest cover. This decline influenced the number and detection rates of large mammals, instigating crop raiding and conflict. Mitigation measures on LCC drivers, particularly forest encroachment, can improve the functional status of LMWC and raise detection rates of large mammals in future studies.     

Broken bridges: The isolation of Kilimanjaro's ecosystem

Biodiversity studies of global change mainly focus on direct impacts such as losses in species numbers or ecosystem functions. In this study, we focus on the long‐term effects of recent land‐cover conversion and subsequent ecological isolation of Kilimanjaro on biodiversity in a paleobiogeographical context, linking our findings with the long‐standing question whether colonization of African mountains mainly depended on long‐distance dispersal, or whether gradual migration has been possible through habitat bridges under colder climates. For this, we used Orthoptera as bioindicators, whose patterns of endemism and habitat demands we studied on about 500 vegetation plots on Kilimanjaro and Mt. Meru (Tanzania) since 1996. Land‐cover changes in the same area were revealed using a supervised classification of Landsat images from 1976 to 2000. In 1976, there was a corridor of submontane forest vegetation linking Kilimanjaro with Mt. Meru, replaced by human settlements and agriculture after 2000. Until recently, this submontane forest bridge facilitated the dispersal of forest animals, illustrated by the large number of endemic submontane forest Orthoptera shared by both mountains. Furthermore, the occurrence of common montane endemics suggests the existence of a former forest corridor with montane vegetation during much earlier times under climatic conditions 2–7°C cooler and 400–1,700 mm wetter than today. Based on the endemicity patterns of forest Orthoptera, negative consequences are predicted due to the effects of isolation, in particular for larger forest animals. Kilimanjaro is becoming an increasingly isolated ecosystem with far reaching consequences for diversity and endemism. Forest bridges between East African mountains acted as important migratory corridors and are not only a prehistoric phenomenon during periods with other climatic conditions but also disappeared in some places recently due to increasing and direct anthropogenic impact.     

Assessing ecosystem threats from global and regional change: hierarchical modeling of risk to sagebrush ecosystems from climate change, land use and invasive species in Nevada, USA

Global change poses significant challenges for ecosystem conservation. At regional scales, climate change may lead to extensive shifts in species distributions and widespread extirpations or extinctions. At landscape scales, land use and invasive species disrupt ecosystem function and reduce species richness. However, a lack of spatially explicit models of risk to ecosystems makes it difficult for science to inform conservation planning and land management. Here, I model risk to sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystems in the state of Nevada, USA from climate change, land use/land cover change, and species invasion. Risk from climate change is based on an ensemble of 10 atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) projections applied to two bioclimatic envelope models (Mahalanobis distance and Maxent). Risk from land use is based on the distribution of roads, agriculture, and powerlines, and on the spatial relationships between land use and probability of cheatgrass Bromus tectorum invasion in Nevada. Risk from land cover change is based on probability and extent of pinyon-juniper ( Pinus monophylla; Juniperus spp.) woodland expansion. Climate change is most likely to negatively impact sagebrush ecosystems at the edges of its current range, particularly in southern Nevada, southern Utah, and eastern Washington. Risk from land use and woodland expansion is pervasive throughout Nevada, while cheatgrass invasion is most problematic in the northern part of the state. Cumulatively, these changes pose major challenges for conservation of sagebrush and sagebrush obligate species. This type of comprehensive assessment of ecosystem risk provides managers with spatially explicit tools important for conservation planning.