Geographic distribution of phlebotomine sandfly species (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Central-West Brazil

This study updates the geographic distributions of phlebotomine species in Central-West Brazil and analyses the climatic factors associated with their occurrence. The data were obtained from the entomology services of the state departments of health in Central-West Brazil, scientific collections and a literature review of articles from 1962-2014. Ecological niche models were produced for sandfly species with more than 20 occurrences using the Maxent algorithm and eight climate variables. In all, 2,803 phlebotomine records for 127 species were analysed. Nyssomyia whitmani, Evandromyia lenti and Lutzomyia longipalpis were the species with the greatest number of records and were present in all the biomes in Central-West Brazil. The models, which were produced for 34 species, indicated that the Cerrado areas in the central and western regions of Central-West Brazil were climatically more suitable to sandflies. The variables with the greatest influence on the models were the temperature in the coldest months and the temperature seasonality. The results show that phlebotomine species in Central-West Brazil have different geographical distribution patterns and that climate conditions in essentially the entire region favour the occurrence of at least one Leishmania vector species, highlighting the need to maintain or intensify vector control and surveillance strategies.     

Inferring the past to predict the future: climate modelling predictions and phylogeography for the freshwater gastropod Radix balthica (Pulmonata, Basommatophora)

Understanding the impact of past climatic events on species may facilitate predictions of how species will respond to future climate change. To this end, we sampled populations of the common pond snail Radix balthica over the entire species range (northwestern Europe). Using a recently developed analytical framework that employs ecological niche modelling to obtain hypotheses that are subsequently tested with statistical phylogeography, we inferred the range dynamics of R. balthica over time. A Maxent modelling for present-day conditions was performed to infer the climate envelope for the species, and the modelled niche was used to hindcast climatically suitable range at the last glacial maximum (LGM) c . 21 000 years ago. Ecological niche modelling predicted two suitable areas at the LGM within the present species range. Phylogeographic model selection on a COI mitochondrial DNA data set confirmed that R. balthica most likely spread from these two disjunct refuges after the LGM. The match observed between the potential range of the species at the LGM given its present climatic requirements and the phylogeographically inferred refugial areas was a clear argument in favour of niche conservatism in R. balthica , thus allowing to predict the future range. The subsequent projection of the potential range under a global change scenario predicts a moderate pole-ward shift of the northern range limits, but a dramatic loss of areas currently occupied in France, western Great Britain and southern Germany.     

5. FURTHER NOTES UPON SAROTHRURA ELEGANS

Hustler, K. &; Howells, W. W. 1986. A population study of Tawny Eagles in the Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe. Ostrich 57: 101–106.

Tawny Eagle Aquila rapax breeding success has been monitored in the Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe from 1973–1984. There were 1044 breeding pair years with 640 chicks reared; an average of 0,61 chicks/breeding paid year. The average number of pairs breeding each year was 72,4%. Thirty-one percent of all breeding attempts failed; most during nest-building (59%). Rainfall in the latter part of the rainy season appeared to influence early and late laying pairs. Two-egg clutches were most common (76%) and 65% of all one-egg clutches laid failed to produce chicks. Several factors which may influence breeding success are discussed.     

Niche shift versus niche conservatism? Climatic characteristics of the native and invasive ranges of the Mediterranean house gecko (Hemidactylus turcicus)

Aim The use of ecological niche models (ENMs) to predict potential distributions of species is steadily increasing. A necessary assumption is that climatic niches are conservative, but recent findings of niche shifts during biological invasion indicate that this assumption is not always valid. Selection of predictor variables may be one reason for the observed shifts. In this paper we assess differences in climatic niches in the native and invaded ranges of the Mediterranean house gecko (Hemidactylus turcicus) in terms of commonly applied climate variables in ENMs. We analyse which variables are more conserved versus relaxed (i.e. subject to niche shift). Furthermore, we study the predictive power of different sets of climate variables. Location The Mediterranean region and North America. Methods We developed models using Maxent and various subsets of variables out of 19 bioclimatic layers including: (1) two subsets comprising almost all variables excluding only highly collinear ones; (2) two subsets with minimalistic variable sets of water availability and energy measures; (3) two subsets focused on temperature‐related parameters; (4) two subsets with precipitation‐related parameters; and (5) one subset comprising variables combining temperature and precipitation characteristics. Occurrence data from the native Mediterranean range were used to predict the potential introduced range in North America and vice versa. Degrees of niche similarity and conservatism were assessed using both Schoener's index and Hellinger distances. The significance of the results was tested using null models. Results The degree of niche similarity and conservatism varied greatly among the predictors and variable sets applied. Shifts observed in some variables could be attributed to active habitat selection while others apparently reflected background effects. Main conclusions The study was based on comprehensive occurrence data from all regions where Hemidactylus turcicus is present in Europe and North America, providing a robust foundation. Our results clearly indicate that the degree of conservatism of niches in H. turcicus largely varies among predictors and variable sets applied. Therefore, the extent of niche conservatism of variables applied should always be tested in ENMs. This has an important impact on studies of biological invasion, impacts of climate change and niche evolution.     

Saxifraga rivularis L. on Beinn Eighe

Summary

A new locality for Saxifraga rivularis is described from Beinn Eighe, Wester Ross. Species lists from the site and from two nearby sites are compared in relation to soil analyses.     

Does GARP really fail miserably? A response to Stockman et al. (2006)

Stockman et al. (2006 ) found that ecological niche models built using DesktopGARP ‘failed miserably’ to predict trapdoor spider (genus Promyrmekiaphila) distributions in California. This apparent failure of GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Rule‐Set Production) was actually a failure of the authors’ methods, that is, attempting to build ecological niche models using single data points. In this paper, we present a re‐analysis of their original data using standard methods with the data appropriately partitioned into training/testing subsets. This re‐evaluation generated accurate distributional predictions that we contrast with theirs. We address the consequences of model‐building using single data points and the need for a foundational understanding of the principles of ecological niche modelling.     

Coalescence patterns of endemic Tibetan species of stream salamanders (Hynobiidae: Batrachuperus)

Orogenesis of topographically diverse montane regions often drives complex evolutionary histories of species. The extensive biodiversity of the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau, which gradually decreases eastwardly, facilitates a comparison of historical patterns. We use coalescence methods to compare species of stream salamanders (Batrachuperus) that occur at high and low elevations. Coalescent simulations reveal that closely related species are likely to have been influenced by different drivers of diversification. Species living in the western high‐elevation region with its northsouth extending mountains appear to have experienced colonization via dispersal followed by isolation and divergence. In contrast, species on the eastern low‐elevation region, which has many discontinuous mountain ranges, appear to have experienced fragmentation, sometimes staged, of wide‐ranging ancestral populations. The two groups of species appear to have been affected differently by glaciation. High‐elevation species, which are more resistant to cooler temperatures, appear to have experienced population declines as recently as the last glaciation (0.016–0.032 Ma). In contrast, salamanders dwelling in the warmer and wetter habitats at low‐elevation environs appear to have been affected less by the relatively recent, milder glaciation, and more so by harsher, extensive glaciations (0.5–0.175 Ma). Thus, elevation, topography and cold tolerance appear to drive evolutionary patterns of diversification and demography even among closely related taxa. The comparison of multiple species in genealogical analyses can lead to an understanding of the evolutionary drivers.     

Projected changes in distributions of Australian tropical savanna birds under climate change using three dispersal scenarios

Identifying the species most vulnerable to extinction as a result of climate change is a necessary first step in mitigating biodiversity decline. Species distribution modeling (SDM) is a commonly used tool to assess potential climate change impacts on distributions of species. We use SDMs to predict geographic ranges for 243 birds of Australian tropical savannas, and to project changes in species richness and ranges under a future climate scenario between 1990 and 2080. Realistic predictions require recognition of the variability in species capacity to track climatically suitable environments. Here we assess the effect of dispersal on model results by using three approaches: full dispersal, no dispersal and a partial-dispersal scenario permitting species to track climate change at a rate of 30 km per decade. As expected, the projected distributions and richness patterns are highly sensitive to the dispersal scenario. Projected future range sizes decreased for 66% of species if full dispersal was assumed, but for 89% of species when no dispersal was assumed. However, realistic future predictions should not assume a single dispersal scenario for all species and as such, we assigned each species to the most appropriate dispersal category based on individual mobility and habitat specificity; this permitted the best estimates of where species will be in the future. Under this "realistic" dispersal scenario, projected ranges sizes decreased for 67% of species but showed that migratory and tropical-endemic birds are predicted to benefit from climate change with increasing distributional area. Richness hotspots of tropical savanna birds are expected to move, increasing in southern savannas and southward along the east coast of Australia, but decreasing in the arid zone. Understanding the complexity of effects of climate change on species' range sizes by incorporating dispersal capacities is a crucial step toward developing adaptation policies for the conservation of vulnerable species.