Coping with Commitment: Projected Thermal Stress on Coral Reefs under Different Future Scenarios

Background

Periods of anomalously warm ocean temperatures can lead to mass coral bleaching. Past studies have concluded that anthropogenic climate change may rapidly increase the frequency of these thermal stress events, leading to declines in coral cover, shifts in the composition of corals and other reef-dwelling organisms, and stress on the human populations who depend on coral reef ecosystems for food, income and shoreline protection. The ability of greenhouse gas mitigation to alter the near-term forecast for coral reefs is limited by the time lag between greenhouse gas emissions and the physical climate response.

Methodology/Principal Findings

This study uses observed sea surface temperatures and the results of global climate model forced with five different future emissions scenarios to evaluate the “committed warming” for coral reefs worldwide. The results show that the physical warming commitment from current accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere could cause over half of the world''s coral reefs to experience harmfully frequent (p≥0.2 year⁻¹) thermal stress by 2080. An additional “societal” warming commitment, caused by the time required to shift from a business-as-usual emissions trajectory to a 550 ppm CO₂ stabilization trajectory, may cause over 80% of the world''s coral reefs to experience harmfully frequent events by 2030. Thermal adaptation of 1.5°C would delay the thermal stress forecast by 50–80 years.

Conclusions/Significance

The results suggest that adaptation – via biological mechanisms, coral community shifts and/or management interventions – could provide time to change the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions and possibly avoid the recurrence of harmfully frequent events at the majority (97%) of the world''s coral reefs this century. Without any thermal adaptation, atmospheric CO₂ concentrations may need to be stabilized below current levels to avoid the degradation of coral reef ecosystems from frequent thermal stress events.     

共享社会经济路径下中国2020—2100年碳排放预测研究

碳排放和减碳经济代价研究日益受到学术界和决策者的关注,中国政府做出的关于争取在2060年前实现碳中和的表态引起了国际社会的热议。在此背景下,开展中国未来长时间序列碳排放的情景预测具有切实意义。基于可拓展的随机性环境影响评估模型（STIRPAT）评估了人口、经济和受教育程度对碳排放的影响,对比历史数据并验证了碳排放预测模型的准确性,结合共享社会经济路径（SSPs）情景的设定和模型参数,预测了5种情景下中国2020年至2100年的碳排放轨迹及经济代价。结果表明：（1）考虑碳排放达峰目标的实现,SSP3情景是中国未来发展的最佳情景,在此情景下,中国有望提前三年实现碳排放达峰目标;（2） SSP3情景可使中国年度总碳排放量和人均碳排放量处于相对其他四种情景的最低值,但需要付出累积GDP下降5.49%至8.80%的代价;（3）为完成在2060年前实现碳中和的承诺,中国政府在未来的40年需面对409.36-467.42 Gt的碳中和量;（4）2020年中国的碳排放强度将会较2005年水平下降40.52%至41.39%,2030年碳排放强度将会较2005年水平下降59.64%至60.75%。5种情境中,SSP5情景是降低碳排放强度的最佳情景,可最大程度地超额实现碳排放强度目标。未来,受经济发展、人口增长等重要因素影响,中国政府减碳压力将进一步加大。后疫情时代,考虑到能源供应的减少和高科技产业的发展,碳排放社会成本的上升将为中国创造一个使能源系统脱碳的机遇。中国应在"十四五"期间继续提升能源利用效率、升级产业结构、提倡低碳消费、实施隐含碳战略,以尽快实现碳减排目标。     

Effects of “Reduced” and “Business-As-Usual” CO2 Emission Scenarios on the Algal Territories of the Damselfish Pomacentrus wardi (Pomacentridae)

Turf algae are a very important component of coral reefs, featuring high growth and turnover rates, whilst covering large areas of substrate. As food for many organisms, turf algae have an important role in the ecosystem. Farming damselfish can modify the species composition and productivity of such algal assemblages, while defending them against intruders. Like all organisms however, turf algae and damselfishes have the potential to be affected by future changes in seawater (SW) temperature and pCO₂. In this study, algal assemblages, in the presence and absence of farming Pomacentrus wardi were exposed to two combinations of SW temperature and pCO₂ levels projected for the austral spring of 2100 (the B1 “reduced” and the A1FI “business-as-usual” CO₂ emission scenarios) at Heron Island (GBR, Australia). These assemblages were dominated by the presence of red algae and non-epiphytic cyanobacteria, i.e. cyanobacteria that grow attached to the substrate rather than on filamentous algae. The endpoint algal composition was mostly controlled by the presence/absence of farming damselfish, despite a large variability found between the algal assemblages of individual fish. Different scenarios appeared to be responsible for a mild, species specific change in community composition, observable in some brown and green algae, but only in the absence of farming fish. Farming fish appeared unaffected by the conditions to which they were exposed. Algal biomass reductions were found under “reduced” CO₂ emission, but not “business-as-usual” scenarios. This suggests that action taken to limit CO₂ emissions may, if the majority of algae behave similarly across all seasons, reduce the potential for phase shifts that lead to algal dominated communities. At the same time the availability of food resources to damselfish and other herbivores would be smaller under “reduced” emission scenarios.     

Good Samaritans in Networks: An Experiment on How Networks Influence Egalitarian Sharing and the Evolution of Inequality

The fact that the more resourceful people are sharing with the poor to mitigate inequality—egalitarian sharing—is well documented in the behavioral science research. How inequality evolves as a result of egalitarian sharing is determined by the structure of “who gives whom”. While most prior experimental research investigates allocation of resources in dyads and groups, the paper extends the research of egalitarian sharing to networks for a more generalized structure of social interaction. An agent-based model is proposed to predict how actors, linked in networks, share their incomes with neighbors. A laboratory experiment with human subjects further shows that income distributions evolve to different states in different network topologies. Inequality is significantly reduced in networks where the very rich and the very poor are connected so that income discrepancy is salient enough to motivate the rich to share their incomes with the poor. The study suggests that social networks make a difference in how egalitarian sharing influences the evolution of inequality.     

Future of health care system tops agenda as CMA Board of Directors meets

The first part of the CMA''s efforts to spark a public debate on the future of Canada''s health care system is a “visioning exercise” in which the Board of Directors will attempt to spell out the association''s views on how the system should develop. The board also discussed CMA initiatives concerning two major public-health issues — smoking and blood transfusions.     

基于替代式自下而上法的区域旅游交通碳排放测度

区域旅游交通碳排放测度是分解旅游业减碳任务的一个难题。在剖析替代式自下而上法机理的基础上,以长三角为例,依托归纳法和变异系数法,尝试从人均GDP、人均消费水平和人均运输线路长度三方面测算出游距离,采取以实地调研数据为主、辅之以Mus TT模型法拟定各旅游交通方式的距离比例,立足区情确定碳排放系数,并以区域输入和输出的双向旅游流的人次比值法则对替代结果进行还原调整。研究表明:(1)2011年,长三角旅游交通碳排放总量为8.32 Mt,其中江苏省、浙江省和上海市分别为3.23、2.98 Mt和2.11 Mt;(2)飞机和自驾车共占排放量的71.64%,较明显低于世界平均比例,二者是降低旅游交通碳排放的关键;旅游公共交通的碳排放比例具有远高于发达国家甚至全球平均水平的"中国式"烙印;由高碳排放系数的旅游交通方式向低碳排放系数甚至零碳排放系数的转变,是旅游交通减排的基本方向。     

Assessing “Dangerous Climate Change”: Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People,Future Generations and Nature

We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth’s measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today’s young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur “slow” feedbacks and eventual warming of 3–4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth’s energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.     

Intensification of dairy production can increase the GHG mitigation potential of the land use sector in East Africa

Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) could face food shortages in the future because of its growing population. Agricultural expansion causes forest degradation in SSA through livestock grazing, reducing forest carbon (C) sinks and increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Therefore, intensification should produce more food while reducing pressure on forests. This study assessed the potential for the dairy sector in Kenya to contribute to low‐emissions development by exploring three feeding scenarios. The analyses used empirical spatially explicit data, and a simulation model to quantify milk production, agricultural emissions and forest C loss due to grazing. The scenarios explored improvements in forage quality (Fo), feed conservation (Fe) and concentrate supplementation (Co): FoCo fed high‐quality Napier grass (Pennisetum purpureum), FeCo supplemented maize silage and FoFeCo a combination of Napier, silage and concentrates. Land shortages and forest C loss due to grazing were quantified with land requirements and feed availability around forests. All scenarios increased milk yields by 44%–51%, FoCo reduced GHG emission intensity from 2.4 ± 0.1 to 1.6 ± 0.1 kg CO₂eq per kg milk, FeCo reduced it to 2.2 ± 0.1, whereas FoFeCo increased it to 2.7 ± 0.2 kg CO₂eq per kg milk because of land use change emissions. Closing the yield gap of maize by increasing N fertilizer use reduced emission intensities by 17% due to reduced emissions from conversion of grazing land. FoCo was the only scenario that mitigated agricultural and forest emissions by reducing emission intensity by 33% and overall emissions by 2.5% showing that intensification of dairy in a low‐income country can increase milk yields without increasing emissions. There are, however, risks of C leakage if agricultural and forest policies are not aligned leading to loss of forest to produce concentrates. This approach will aid the assessment of the climate‐smartness of livestock production practices at the national level in East Africa.     

Doctor,you're in tobacco sales!

The director of British Columbia''s Doctors'' Stop-Smoking Project says that, whether they recognize it or not, doctors have the best and most competitive position within the tobacco industry because they have the best product line. Dr. Frederic Bass says physicians'' products—health and freedom from addiction—will win against the competition, which can offer only smoke, addiction to nicotine and ill health. “We offer the better deal,” he says, “but are we selling like we could? That''s the issue.”     

Spatiotemporal Characteristics,Determinants and Scenario Analysis of CO2 Emissions in China Using Provincial Panel Data

This paper empirically investigated the spatiotemporal variations, influencing factors and future emission trends of China’s CO₂ emissions based on a provincial panel data set. A series of panel econometric models were used taking the period 1995–2011 into consideration. The results indicated that CO₂ emissions in China increased over time, and were characterized by noticeable regional discrepancies; in addition, CO₂ emissions also exhibited properties of spatial dependence and convergence. Factors such as population scale, economic level and urbanization level exerted a positive influence on CO₂ emissions. Conversely, energy intensity was identified as having a negative influence on CO₂ emissions. In addition, the significance of the relationship between CO₂ emissions and the four variables varied across the provinces based on their scale of economic development. Scenario simulations further showed that the scenario of middle economic growth, middle population increase, low urbanization growth, and high technology improvement (here referred to as Scenario BTU), constitutes the best development model for China to realize the future sustainable development. Based on these empirical findings, we also provide a number of policy recommendations with respect to the future mitigation of CO₂ emissions.     

Defining Catastrophic Costs and Comparing Their Importance for Adverse Tuberculosis Outcome with Multi-Drug Resistance: A Prospective Cohort Study,Peru

Background

Even when tuberculosis (TB) treatment is free, hidden costs incurred by patients and their households (TB-affected households) may worsen poverty and health. Extreme TB-associated costs have been termed “catastrophic” but are poorly defined. We studied TB-affected households'' hidden costs and their association with adverse TB outcome to create a clinically relevant definition of catastrophic costs.

Methods and Findings

From 26 October 2002 to 30 November 2009, TB patients (n = 876, 11% with multi-drug-resistant [MDR] TB) and healthy controls (n = 487) were recruited to a prospective cohort study in shantytowns in Lima, Peru. Patients were interviewed prior to and every 2–4 wk throughout treatment, recording direct (household expenses) and indirect (lost income) TB-related costs. Costs were expressed as a proportion of the household''s annual income. In poorer households, costs were lower but constituted a higher proportion of the household''s annual income: 27% (95% CI = 20%–43%) in the least-poor houses versus 48% (95% CI = 36%–50%) in the poorest. Adverse TB outcome was defined as death, treatment abandonment or treatment failure during therapy, or recurrence within 2 y. 23% (166/725) of patients with a defined treatment outcome had an adverse outcome. Total costs ≥20% of household annual income was defined as catastrophic because this threshold was most strongly associated with adverse TB outcome. Catastrophic costs were incurred by 345 households (39%). Having MDR TB was associated with a higher likelihood of incurring catastrophic costs (54% [95% CI = 43%–61%] versus 38% [95% CI = 34%–41%], p<0.003). Adverse outcome was independently associated with MDR TB (odds ratio [OR] = 8.4 [95% CI = 4.7–15], p<0.001), previous TB (OR = 2.1 [95% CI = 1.3–3.5], p = 0.005), days too unwell to work pre-treatment (OR = 1.01 [95% CI = 1.00–1.01], p = 0.02), and catastrophic costs (OR = 1.7 [95% CI = 1.1–2.6], p = 0.01). The adjusted population attributable fraction of adverse outcomes explained by catastrophic costs was 18% (95% CI = 6.9%–28%), similar to that of MDR TB (20% [95% CI = 14%–25%]). Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that existing catastrophic costs thresholds (≥10% or ≥15% of household annual income) were not associated with adverse outcome in our setting. Study limitations included not measuring certain “dis-saving” variables (including selling household items) and gathering only 6 mo of costs-specific follow-up data for MDR TB patients.

Conclusions

Despite free TB care, having TB disease was expensive for impoverished TB patients in Peru. Incurring higher relative costs was associated with adverse TB outcome. The population attributable fraction indicated that catastrophic costs and MDR TB were associated with similar proportions of adverse outcomes. Thus TB is a socioeconomic as well as infectious problem, and TB control interventions should address both the economic and clinical aspects of this disease. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Nitrous Oxide Inhalation as a Fad—Dangers in Uncontrolled Sniffing for Psychedelic Effect

“LAUGHING GAS is the newest thing for kids seeking kicks,” the Stanford Daily reports. “They sniff it.”So begins a news story in the Los Angeles Times of 26 January 1967. The story continues:“It''s the latest way to travel, or so say a growing group of devotees on the campus,” the university student paper said. “It can produce much the same effects as psychedelic drugs, they claim, and it''s cheaper to obtain.”“One student said he buys the gas, nitrous oxide, from a medical supply house. `They think I am anesthetizing rats,'' he explained.“Campus medical authorities said the gas, sniffed `in sufficient amounts... could produce all the states of anesthesia, including the final stage—death.''”     

The inevitable journey to being

Life is evolutionarily the most complex of the emergent symmetry-breaking, macroscopically organized dynamic structures in the Universe. Members of this cascading series of disequilibria-converting systems, or engines in Cottrell''s terminology, become ever more complicated—more chemical and less physical—as each engine extracts, exploits and generates ever lower grades of energy and resources in the service of entropy generation. Each one of these engines emerges spontaneously from order created by a particular mother engine or engines, as the disequilibrated potential daughter is driven beyond a critical point. Exothermic serpentinization of ocean crust is life''s mother engine. It drives alkaline hydrothermal convection and thereby the spontaneous production of precipitated submarine hydrothermal mounds. Here, the two chemical disequilibria directly causative in the emergence of life spontaneously arose across the mineral precipitate membranes separating the acidulous, nitrate-bearing CO₂-rich, Hadean sea from the alkaline and CH₄/H₂-rich serpentinization-generated effluents. Essential redox gradients—involving hydrothermal CH₄ and H₂ as electron donors, CO₂ and nitrate, nitrite, and ferric iron from the ambient ocean as acceptors—were imposed which functioned as the original ‘carbon-fixing engine’. At the same time, a post-critical-point (milli)voltage pH potential (proton concentration gradient) drove the condensation of orthophosphate to produce a high energy currency: ‘the pyrophosphatase engine’.     

Modelling the influence of predicted future climate change on the risk of wind damage within New Zealand's planted forests

Wind is the major abiotic disturbance in New Zealand's planted forests, but little is known about how the risk of wind damage may be affected by future climate change. We linked a mechanistic wind damage model (ForestGALES) to an empirical growth model for radiata pine (Pinus radiata D. Don) and a process‐based growth model (cenw ) to predict the risk of wind damage under different future emissions scenarios and assumptions about the future wind climate. The cenw model was used to estimate site productivity for constant CO₂ concentration at 1990 values and for assumed increases in CO₂ concentration from current values to those expected during 2040 and 2090 under the B1 (low), A1B (mid‐range) and A2 (high) emission scenarios. Stand development was modelled for different levels of site productivity, contrasting silvicultural regimes and sites across New Zealand. The risk of wind damage was predicted for each regime and emission scenario combination using the ForestGALES model. The sensitivity to changes in the intensity of the future wind climate was also examined. Results showed that increased tree growth rates under the different emissions scenarios had the greatest impact on the risk of wind damage. The increase in risk was greatest for stands growing at high stand density under the A2 emissions scenario with increased CO₂ concentration. The increased productivity under this scenario resulted in increased tree height, without a corresponding increase in diameter, leading to more slender trees that were predicted to be at greater risk from wind damage. The risk of wind damage was further increased by the modest increases in the extreme wind climate that are predicted to occur. These results have implications for the development of silvicultural regimes that are resilient to climate change and also indicate that future productivity gains may be offset by greater losses from disturbances.     

Computer-Assisted Diagnosis of Abdominal Pain using “Estimates” Provided by Clinicians

This paper reports a comparison between two modes of computer-aided diagnosis in a real-time prospective trial involving 472 patients with acute abdominal pain. In the first mode the computer-aided system analysed each of the 472 patients by referring to data previously collated from a large series of 600 real-life patients. In the second mode the system used as a basis for its analysis “estimates” of probability provided by a group of six clinicians. The accuracy and reliability of both modes were compared with the performance of unaided clinicians.Using “real-life” data the computer system was significantly more effective than the unaided clinician. By contrast, when using the clinicians'' own estimates the computer-aided system was often less effective than the unaided clinician—especially when diagnosing less common disorders. It seems, firstly, that future systems for computer-aided diagnosis should employ data from real-life and not clinicians'' estimates, and, secondly, that clinicians themselves cannot analyse cases in a probabilistic fashion, since often they have little idea of what the “true” probabilities are.     

“HIDDEN” ALCOHOLICS—Medical Implications of Undiscovered Addiction

“Hidden alcoholics”—those who drink surreptitiously to keep their addiction secret—far out-number the overt habitues of skid rows. The former rather than the latter should be considered “typical” alcoholics. Even though they have severe problems, they maintain fairly good employment stability and stability in marriage. Yet they steadily deteriorate.Often “hidden” alcoholics go to physicians because of symptoms referable to alcoholism but contrive to conceal their addiction and so make diagnosis difficult. Hence, physicians observing certain kinds of symptoms that cannot be attributed to a readily observable or demonstrable pathologic change should make searching inquiry as to the patient''s drinking habits. For not until the proper diagnosis is made in such cases can there be hope of effective treatment.     

An Analysis of Costs and Health Co-Benefits for a U.S. Power Plant Carbon Standard

Reducing carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from power plants can have important “co-benefits” for public health by reducing emissions of air pollutants. Here, we examine the costs and health co-benefits, in monetary terms, for a policy that resembles the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Clean Power Plan. We then examine the spatial distribution of the co-benefits and costs, and the implications of a range of cost assumptions in the implementation year of 2020. Nationwide, the total health co-benefits were $29 billion 2010 USD (95% CI: $2.3 to $68 billion), and net co-benefits under our central cost case were $12 billion (95% CI: -$15 billion to $51 billion). Net co-benefits for this case in the implementation year were positive in 10 of the 14 regions studied. The results for our central case suggest that all but one region should experience positive net benefits within 5 years after implementation.     

Cooperative Emissions Trading Game: International Permit Market Dominated by Buyers

Rapid reduction of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is required to mitigate disastrous impacts of climate change. The Kyoto Protocol introduced international emissions trading (IET) to accelerate the reduction of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. The IET controls CO₂ emissions through the allocation of marketable emission permits to sovereign countries. The costs for acquiring additional permits provide buyers with an incentive to reduce their CO₂ emissions. However, permit price has declined to a low level during the first commitment period (CP1). The downward trend in permit price is attributed to deficiencies of the Kyoto Protocol: weak compliance enforcement, the generous allocation of permits to transition economies (hot air), and the withdrawal of the US. These deficiencies created a buyer’s market dominated by price-making buyers. In this paper, I develop a coalitional game of the IET, and demonstrate that permit buyers have dominant bargaining power. In my model, called cooperative emissions trading (CET) game, a buyer purchases permits from sellers only if the buyer forms a coalition with the sellers. Permit price is determined by bargaining among the coalition members. I evaluated the demand-side and supply-side bargaining power (DBP and SBP) using Shapley value, and obtained the following results: (1) Permit price is given by the product of the buyer’s willingness-to-pay and the SBP (= 1 − DBP). (2) The DBP is greater than or equal to the SBP. These results indicate that buyers can suppress permit price to low levels through bargaining. The deficiencies of the Kyoto Protocol enhance the DBP, and contribute to the demand-side dominance in the international permit market.     

The impacts of climate change and human activities on biogeochemical cycles on the Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau

With a pace of about twice the observed rate of global warming, the temperature on the Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau (Earth's ‘third pole’) has increased by 0.2 °C per decade over the past 50 years, which results in significant permafrost thawing and glacier retreat. Our review suggested that warming enhanced net primary production and soil respiration, decreased methane (CH₄) emissions from wetlands and increased CH₄ consumption of meadows, but might increase CH₄ emissions from lakes. Warming‐induced permafrost thawing and glaciers melting would also result in substantial emission of old carbon dioxide (CO₂) and CH₄. Nitrous oxide (N₂O) emission was not stimulated by warming itself, but might be slightly enhanced by wetting. However, there are many uncertainties in such biogeochemical cycles under climate change. Human activities (e.g. grazing, land cover changes) further modified the biogeochemical cycles and amplified such uncertainties on the plateau. If the projected warming and wetting continues, the future biogeochemical cycles will be more complicated. So facing research in this field is an ongoing challenge of integrating field observations with process‐based ecosystem models to predict the impacts of future climate change and human activities at various temporal and spatial scales. To reduce the uncertainties and to improve the precision of the predictions of the impacts of climate change and human activities on biogeochemical cycles, efforts should focus on conducting more field observation studies, integrating data within improved models, and developing new knowledge about coupling among carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus biogeochemical cycles as well as about the role of microbes in these cycles.