Effects of density-dependence and climate on the dynamics of a Svalbard reindeer population

To determine the main factors affecting the population dynamics of Svalbard reindeer, we analysed 21 yr of annual censuses, including data on population size, recruitment rate (calves per female) and mortality (number of deaths), from the Reindalen reindeer population. In accordance with previous studies on population dynamics of Svalbard reindeer, we found large inter-annual variation in population size, mortality and recruitment rates within the study area. Population size decreased in years with low recruitment rate as well as high winter mortality and vice versa. Apparently. the fluctuations were due to both direct density-dependent food limitation and variation in winter climate associated with high precipitation and icing of the feeding range. We found no delayed density-dependence or effect of climatic conditions during summer on the population dynamics. The mortality during die-off years was mainly of calves and very old individuals, indicating that the population was more vulnerable to high die oft in years following high recruitment rate. These results suggest an unstable interaction between the reindeer population and its food supply in these predator-free environments.     

Annual variation in maternal age and calving date generate cohort effects in moose (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Alces alces</Emphasis>) body mass

A general feature of the demography of large ungulates is that many demographic traits are dependent on female body mass at early ages. Thus, identifying the factors affecting body mass variation can give important mechanistic understanding of demographic processes. Here we relate individual variation in autumn and winter body mass of moose calves living at low density on an island in northern Norway to characteristics of their mother, and examine how these relationships are affected by annual variation in population density and climate. Body mass increased with increasing age of their mother, was lower for calves born late in the spring, decreased with litter size and was larger for males than for female calves. No residual effects of variation in density and climate were present after controlling for annual variation in mother age and calving date. The annual variation in adult female age structure and calving date explained a large part (71–75%) of the temporal variation in calf body mass. These results support the hypotheses that (a) body mass of moose calves are affected by qualities associated with mother age (e.g. body condition, calving date); and (b) populations living at low densities are partly buffered against temporal fluctuations in the environment.     

Culling Versus Density Effects in Management of a Deer Population

Abstract: Wildlife managers often manipulate hunting regulations to control deer populations. However, few empirical studies have examined the level of hunting effort (hunter-days) required to limit population growth and demographic effects through harvesting of females. Moreover, the relative importance of density effects on population growth has not been quantified. We reconstructed a sika deer [Cervus nippon] population over a period of 12 years (1990–2001) using age- and sex-specific harvest data. Using cohort analysis, we analyzed population dynamics, focusing on 1) the relationship between hunting effort and hunting-induced mortality rate, 2) relative contributions of hunting mortality and recruitment of yearlings to annual changes in population growth rate, and 3) annual variation in recruitment rate. Population size increased until 1998 and declined thereafter. The population growth rate changed more in response to annual changes in recruitment rate than hunting mortality rate. Temporal variation in recruitment rate was not controlled by birth rate alone; direct density dependence, intensities of hunting mortality for fawns, and for females (≥2 yr of age), which accounted for the fawn survival rate, were required as factors to explain temporal variation. Density effects on the recruitment rate were not strong enough to regulate the population within the study period; high hunting mortality, with intensive female harvesting, was necessary to prevent population growth. Hunting effort was a good predictor of the hunting mortality rate, and female harvest had a negative effect on the recruitment rate through fawn survival. We suggest that >3,500 hunter-days and prioritization of female harvesting are required to prevent increases in this deer population.     

Geographical variation in the influence of density dependence and climate on the recruitment of Norwegian moose

The effects of variation in climate on population dynamics are likely to differ within the distributional range of a species, yet the consequences of such regional variation on demography and population dynamics are rarely considered. Here we examine how density dependence and different climate variables affect spatio-temporal variation in recruitment rates of Norwegian moose using data collected over a large geographical area during the hunting season. After accounting for observation error by a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo technique, temporal variation in recruitment rates was relatively independent of fluctuations in local population size. In fact, a positive relationship was as common as a density-dependent decrease in fecundity rates. In general, high recruitment rates were found during autumn 1 year after years with a warm February, and after a warm May or cold June in year t − 1 or in year t. Large regional variation was also found in the effects of some of the weather variables, especially during spring. These patterns demonstrate both direct and delayed effects of weather on the recruitment of moose that possibly operate through an effect of body mass on the proportion of the females that sexually mature as 1.5 or 2.5 years old.     

Estimating the growth of a newly established moose population using reproductive value

Estimating the population growth rate and environmental stochasticity of long-lived species is difficult because annual variation in population size is influenced by temporal autocorrelations caused by fluctuations in the age-structure. Here we use the dynamics of the reproductive value to estimate the long-term growth rate s and the environmental variance of a moose population that recently colonized the island of Vega in northern Norway. We show that the population growth rate was high (ŝ=0.26). The major stochastic influences on the population dynamics were due to demographic stochasticity, whereas the environmental variance was not significantly different from 0. This supports the suggestion that population growth rates of polytocous ungulates are high, and that demographic stochasticity must be assessed when estimating the growth of small ungulate populations.     

Population ecology of polar bears at Svalbard, Norway

The population ecology of polar bears at Svalbard, Norway, was examined from 1988 to 2002 using live-captured animals. The mean age of both females and males increased over the study, litter production rate and natality declined and body length of adults decreased. Dynamics of body mass were suggestive of cyclical changes over time and variation in body mass of both adult females and adult males was related to the Arctic Oscillation index. Similarly, litter production rate and natality correlated with the Arctic Oscillation index. The changes in age-structure, reproductive rates and body length suggest that recovery from over-harvest continued for almost 30 years after harvest ended in 1973 and that density-dependent changes are perhaps being expressed in the population. However, the variation in reproduction and body mass in the population show a relationship between large-scale climatic variation and the upper trophic level in an Arctic marine ecosystem. Similar change in other polar bear populations has been attributed to climate change, and further research is needed to establish linkages between climate and the population ecology of polar bears.     

Conspecific reproductive success affects age of recruitment in a great cormorant, Phalacrocorax carbo sinensis, colony.

Few studies have addressed the proximate factors affecting the age at which individuals of long-lived bird species are recruited into the breeding population. We use capture-recapture analysis of resightings of 16 birth cohorts of colour-ringed great cormorants, Phalacrocorax carbo sinensis, in a Danish colony to assess the evidence for two hypotheses: conspecific attraction (earlier recruitment when the colony is large) and conspecific reproductive success (earlier recruitment following years of high breeding success). For both males and females, conspecific reproductive success was the most important covariate explaining the interannual variation in age of recruitment; colony size was also important for females. These covariates explained nearly 60% of the year-to-year variation for both sexes. The age of recruitment increased for cohorts born after 1990, and this increase was correlated with a decline in breeding success in the colony; we interpret this as an indirect and delayed density-dependent effect. Females were recruited earlier than males (mean age of recruitment for cohorts born before 1990: 2.98 years versus 3.53 years); the most plausible reason for this is a skewed sex ratio in favour of males in the adult population. Recruitment of males may thus, to some extent, be constrained by the availability of females. This study provides the first evidence that conspecific reproductive success can affect the age at which individual birds start to breed.     

Life history of the moose Alces alces: relationship between growth and reproduction

We studied the relationship between increase in body weight and reproductive performance in different populations of Norwegian moose to evaluate costs associated with early onset of reproduction, viz. whether early onset of reproduction was correlated with low adult body weight or reduced adult fecundity. The mean carcass weight of non-ovulating yearlings was significantly lower than for ovulating yearlings. However, those 2.5 yr old females that conceived as yearlings were lighter than non-reproducing females of the same age. Thus, to begin to reproduce as a yearling was assumed to be expensive because it reduces the possibilities for further growth. The cost associated with reproduction was further illustrated by the fact that the difference in mean carcass weight from age 2.5 to 3.5 yr of females that produced calves in both years, was less for the females from regions with lowest mean yearling weights, i.e. regions with probably the lowest resource availability. In populations with high mean yearling carcass weights, the proportion of cows with calf and the number of calves per pregnant female in the early reproductive phase (2.5 or 3.5 yr old) were higher than in populations in which the mean yearling weights were low. There was a negative correlation between growth rate in the population after 1.5 yr of age and the mean yearling carcass weight. Thus, low yearling weight was associated with a prolonged period of growth and thereby a reduced reproductive output during the first year of the female's life. For old females (≥ 9.5 yr old) the number of calves produced per pregnant female was highest in populations where yearling carcass weights were highest. Furthermore, mean yearling weight and the mean adult female weight were positively correlated in those regions. This relationship suggests that within this species early onset of reproduction is not related to retarded reproduction or lower weight later in life. We suggest that the moose has been selected for an early onset of reproduction.     

Contributions of forage competition, harvest, and climate fluctuation to changes in population growth of northern white-tailed deer

Recently there has been considerable interest in determining the relative roles of endogenous (density-dependent) and exogenous (density-independent) factors in driving the population dynamics of free-ranging ungulates. We used time-series analysis to estimate the relative contributions of density-dependent forage competition, climatic fluctuation, and harvesting on the population dynamics of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Nova Scotia, Canada, from 1983 to 2000. A model incorporating the population density 2 years previous, an interaction term for the harvest of females and population density 2 years previous, and the total snowfall during the previous 2 winters explained 80% of the variation in inter-annual population growth rate. Natality of adult females was negatively related to deer density during the present winter, whereas that of yearlings may have been correlated with the snowfall of three winters previous. Natality of fawns was related to deer density and total snowfall during the previous winter. Coyotes (Canis latrans) prey extensively on deer fawns in northeastern North America and the annual harvest of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus), the major alternate prey of coyotes, explained 48% of the inter-annual variation in fawn recruitment. The proportions of fawn, yearling, and adult deer suffering from severe malnutrition during late winter were all correlated with deer density during the present winter. We conclude that the limiting effects of winter weather on over-winter survival of deer may be cumulative over two consecutive winters. During the late 1980s, density dependence and winter severity acted in concert to effect substantial declines in deer population growth both by effecting winter losses directly and by exacerbating predation by coyotes. During this period liberal harvesting did not relieve density-dependent forage competition and probably accelerated the decline.     

Patterns of hunting mortality in Norwegian moose (Alces alces) populations

We used a simple life table approach to examine the age-specific patterns of harvest mortality in eight Norwegian moose populations during the last 15 years and tried to determine if the observed patterns were caused by hunter selectivity. The general opinion among local managers is that hunters prefer to shoot female moose not in company with calves to keep a high number of reproductive females in the population (and because of the emotional stress involved in leaving the calf/calves without a mother), and relatively large males because of the higher return with respect to meat and trophy. In support of the former view, we found the harvest mortality of adult females to be higher among pre-prime (1–3 years old) than prime-aged age classes (4–7 years old). This is probably because prime-aged females are more fecund and, therefore, more likely to be in company with one or two calves during the hunting season. As the season progressed, however, the selection pressure on barren females decreased, probably due to more productive females becoming ‘legal’ prey as their calf/calves were harvested. In males, we did not find any evidence of strong age-specific hunter selectivity, despite strong age-dependent variation in body mass and antler size. We suggest that this was due to the current strongly female-biased sex ratio in most Norwegian moose populations, which leaves the hunters with few opportunities to be selective within a relatively short and intensive hunting season. The management implications of these findings and to what extent the results are likely to affect the future evolution of life histories in Norwegian moose populations are discussed.Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available for this article at and accessible for authorised users.     

Survival-variation within and between functional categories of the African multimammate rat

1. By identifying ecological factors specific to functional categories of individuals, it may be possible to understand the mechanisms underlying life-history evolution and population dynamics. While empirical analyses within the field of population biology have focused on changes in population size, theoretical models assuming differential sensitivities of population growth rate or fitness to demographic parameters have mostly been untested, particularly against data on small mammals.
2. Statistical modelling of capture–mark–recapture data on the multimammate rat ( Mastomys natalensis ) from Tanzania shows that: (i) females survive slightly better than males and subadults survive much better than adults; (ii) temporal variation of survival of all individuals is similarly related to the rainfall of the month; (iii) subadults exhibit a strongly density-dependent low persistence rate in the population immediately after their first capture; (iv) subadults survival in later months is, however, positively related to density; and (v) adult survival shows negative density-dependence.
3. Both density-dependent and density-independent factors simultaneously determine stage-dependent survival variation of the multimammate rat. Whereas environmental factors in this population seem to affect survival rates of all individuals in a similar manner, density-dependent relationships are more complex.
4. The patterns of survival variation in small mammals may be different from those observed in large mammals.
5. Further studies of demography in small mammals should aim at understanding how much of the variability in population growth rate is accounted for by the variability of the demographic rates resulting from limiting (density-independent) and regulating (density-dependent) factors, respectively. This study emphasizes the use of robust and accurate statistical methods as well as stage- or age-structured population modelling.     

Sociality, individual fitness and population dynamics of yellow-bellied marmots

Social behaviour was proposed as a density-dependent intrinsic mechanism that could regulate an animal population by affecting reproduction and dispersal. Populations of the polygynous yellow-bellied marmot (Marmota flaviventris) fluctuate widely from year to year primarily driven by the number of weaned young. The temporal variation in projected population growth rate was driven mainly by changes in the age of first reproduction and fertility, which are affected by reproductive suppression. Dispersal is unrelated to population density, or the presence of the father; hence, neither of these limits population growth or acts as an intrinsic mechanism of population regulation; overall, intrinsic regulation seems unlikely. Sociality affects the likelihood of reproduction in that the annual probability of reproducing and the lifetime number of offspring are decreased by the number of older females and by the number of same-aged females present, but are increased by the number of younger adult females present. Recruitment of a yearling female is most likely when her mother is present; recruitment of philopatric females is much more important than immigration for increasing the number of adult female residents. Predation and overwinter mortality are the major factors limiting the number of resident adults. Social behaviour is not directed towards population regulation, but is best interpreted as functioning to maximize direct fitness.     

What changed the demography of an introduced population of an herbivorous lady beetle?

1. The population dynamics of an introduced population of Epilachna niponica (Lewis) (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) was investigated for a 7-year period following its introduction to a site outside of its natural range. A population from Asiu Experimental Forest was introduced to Kyoto University Botanical Garden, 10 km south of its natural distribution.
2. Arthropod predation was much lower in the introduced than in the source population. As a result of the lower predation in the Botanical Garden, larvae reached densities five times higher than in the Asiu Forest and host plants were frequently defoliated. Food shortage caused larval deaths from starvation and increased dispersal.
3. The density of the introduced population was much more variable than that of the source population. The variation in population density in both the introduced and source populations is limited by density-dependent reduction in fecundity and female survival. However, variation in the introduced population's density was increased due to host plant defoliation that resulted in overcompensating density-dependent mortality. In years with high larval density plants were defoliated and this increased adult mortality during the prehibernation period. Besides, the density-dependent regulatory mechanisms that produce population stability were weaker in the introduced population than in the source population.     

Experimental manipulation of breeding density and litter size: effects on reproductive success in the bank vole

1. Reproductive success of individual females may be determined by density-dependent effects, especially in species where territory provides the resources for a reproducing female and territory size is inversely density-dependent.
2. We manipulated simultaneously the reproductive effort (litter size manipulation: ± 0 and + 2 pups) and breeding density (low and high) of nursing female bank voles Clethrionomys glareolus in outdoor enclosures. We studied whether the reproductive success (number and quality of offspring) of individual females is density-dependent, and whether females can compensate for increased reproductive effort when not limited by saturated breeding density.
3. The females nursing their young in the low density weaned significantly more offspring than females in the high density, independent of litter manipulation.
4. Litter enlargements did not increase the number of weanlings per female, but offspring from enlarged litters had lower weight than control litters.
5. In the reduced density females increased the size of their home range, but litter manipulation had no significant effect on spacing behaviour of females. Increased home range size did not result in heavier weanlings.
6. Mother's failure to successfully wean any offspring was more common in the high density treatment, whereas litter manipulation or mother's weight did not affect weaning success.
7. We conclude that reproductive success of bank vole females is negatively density-dependent in terms of number, but not in the quality of weanlings.
8. The nursing effort of females (i.e. the ability to provide enough food for pups) seems not to be limited by density-dependent factors.     

On harvesting a structured ungulate population

Variation in demographic rates within a spatially structured population could have important consequences for management decisions, harvesting strategies and offtake rates. Although there is a growing body of evidence suggesting that demographic rates vary within populations over a range of spatial scales, there has been little research investigating the consequences of this variation for population management. In this paper, data on the dynamics of two female red deer sub-populations on Rum are analysed, and evidence is presented for differences between the fecundity and mortality rates of the two sub-populations. A simple harvesting model is developed to represent the dynamics of the two sub-populations, including density-independent migration between sub-populations and spatially correlated environmental variability. The highest monetary yield in the model is obtained by harvesting the more resilient sub-population at a higher rate. Surprisingly the losses involved in harvesting both sub-populations at the same rate are insignificant. However, if migration were density-dependent, the size of one sub-population would be more relevant to harvesting policy for the other sub-population. The results of this empirical study are compared to theoretical work on spatially structured populations; it is shown that when a species has complex age- and sex-structured population dynamics, previous theoretical results may not hold.     

Effects of wolf pack size and winter conditions on elk mortality

Elk (Cervus canadensis) are high-profile game animals for many states in the western United States, yet over the past several decades some populations have experienced a persistent and broad-scale decline in recruitment. Over this same period, gray wolves (Canis lupus) have become an integral component of many western landscapes and agencies are increasingly challenged to maximize hunting opportunities of ungulates via predator management while simultaneously ensuring wolf conservation. To better understand the implications of predator management on elk populations, we monitored survival of 1,244 adult female elk and 806 6-month-old calves from 29 populations distributed throughout Idaho, USA, from 2004 to 2016. We developed predictive models of mortality that related mortality risk to wolf pack size, winter conditions, and individual-level characteristics. Annual mortality rates (excluding harvest) for adult females and calves were 0.09 and 0.40, respectively. Calf mortality was predicted best with a model that included additive effects of chest girth at time of capture, mean size of surrounding wolf packs, and snow depth. Adult female mortality was predicted best with a model that included female age, mean size of surrounding wolf packs, and snow depth. Based on a sensitivity analysis, chest girth had the largest effect on risk of mortality for calves followed by pack size and snow depth. Other than the effect of senescence in the oldest (>15 yr) individuals, pack size and snow depth had the largest effect on risk of mortality for adult females. We estimated cause-specific mortality and predation was the dominant cause of known-fate mortalities for adult females (35% mountain lion [Puma concolor] and 32% wolf) and calves (45% mountain lion and 28% wolf), whereas malnutrition accounted for 9% and 10% of adult female and calf mortalities, respectively. Wolves preferentially selected smaller calves and older adult females, whereas mountain lions showed little preference for calf size or age class of adult females. Our study indicates managers can increase elk survival by reducing wolf pack sizes on surrounding winter ranges, especially in areas where, or during years when, snow is deep. Additionally, managers interested in improving over-winter calf survival can implement actions to increase the size of calves entering winter by increasing the nutritional quality of summer and early fall forage resources. Although our study was prompted by management questions related to wolves, mountain lions killed more elk than wolves and differences in selection of individual elk indicate mountain lions may have comparably more of an effect on elk population dynamics. Although we were unable to relate changes in mountain lion populations to elk survival in our study, future research should seek a better understanding of multi-predator systems, including how management of one predator affect others and ultimately how these interactions affect elk survival. © 2019 The Wildlife Society     

Effective size of harvested ungulate populations

The harvest of ungulate populations is often directed against certain sex or age classes to maximize the yield in terms of biomass, number of shot animals or number of trophies. Here we examine how such directional harvest affects the effective size of the population. We parameterize an age-specific model assumed to describe the dynamics of Fennoscandian moose. Based on expressions for the demographic variance     for a small subpopulation of heterozygotes Aa bearing a rare neutral allele a , we use this model to calculate how different harvest strategies influence the effective size of the population, given that the population remains stable after harvest. We show that the annual genetic drift, determined by     , increases with decreasing harvest rate of calves and increasing sex bias in the harvest towards bulls 1 year or older. The effective population size per generation decreased with reduced harvest of calves and increased harvest of bulls 1 year or older. The magnitude of these effects depends on the age-specific pattern of variation in reproductive success, which influences the demographic variance. This shows that the choice of harvest strategy strongly affects the genetic dynamics of harvested ungulate populations.     

Determinants of age at first reproduction and lifetime breeding success revealed by full paternity assignment in a male ungulate

Age at first reproduction is an important determinant of individual variation in reproductive success in ungulates, but few studies have examined its relationship with later fitness‐related traits in males. We used a long‐term individual based study of a harvested moose population to quantify the individual reproductive performance and survival of males, as well as to examine the determinants of age at first reproduction and consequences of age at first reproduction on lifetime breeding success. The probability that a male successfully reproduced at the age of two was negatively related to the mean age of adult males in the population, but the relationship weakened with increasing population size. Large antlers and large body mass relative to other males in the population increased the number of calves sired at their first successful mating season. In addition, those that successfully reproduced as two year‐olds were more likely to sire calves the next year, making them more productive at a given age compared to those that first reproduced at the age of three or older. We emphasize the importance for males to start reproducing as soon as possible in a harvested population to gain lifetime fitness benefits, as surviving the hunt is a major determinant of reproductive success in this population. We found no costs of early reproduction in males, hence leading to high individual heterogeneity in male reproductive performance. The apparent lack of reproductive costs could partly be explained by the age distribution in the population, individual variation in early‐life body mass and antler size, and differences in probabilities of being hunted of successful and unsuccessful males.     

Influence of weather and phenotypic characteristics on pregnancy rates of female roe deer in central Italy

In many ungulates, female fecundity is influenced by weather, population density and body condition. Based on a six-year survey of the reproductive tracts of adult female roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) harvested in the province of Pisa (Tuscany, central Italy), we evaluated the influence of weather, population density and individual characteristics on pregnancy rates. Eighty-five percent of females were pregnant, with a median litter size of two (range one—three). We found that pregnancy rate was positively correlated with summer rainfall and body mass of females, whereas early-winter conditions, spring rainfall, the age of females and density-dependent factors did not appear to influence pregnancy rate. These results reflect the particular seasonal variation in the abundance and quality of resources in Mediterranean habitats and show that heavier females (high-quality mothers) are more productive than lighter females.     

Effects of predator treatments,individual traits,and environment on moose survival in Alaska

We studied moose (Alces alces) survival, physical condition, and abundance in a 3-predator system in western Interior Alaska, USA, during 2001–2007. Our objective was to quantify the effects of predator treatments on moose population dynamics by investigating changes in survival while evaluating the contribution of potentially confounding covariates. In May 2003 and 2004, we reduced black bear (Ursus americanus) and brown bear (U. arctos) numbers by translocating bears ≥240 km from the study area. Aircraft-assisted take reduced wolf (Canis lupus) numbers markedly in the study area during 2004–2007. We estimated black bears were reduced by approximately 96% by June 2004 and recovered to within 27% of untreated numbers by May 2007. Brown bears were reduced approximately 50% by June 2004. Late-winter wolf numbers were reduced by 75% by 2005 and likely remained at these levels through 2007. In addition to predator treatments, moose hunting closures during 2004–2007 reduced harvests of male moose by 60% in the study area. Predator treatments resulted in increased calf survival rates during summer (primarily from reduced black bear predation) and autumn (primarily from reduced wolf predation). Predator treatments had little influence on survival of moose calves during winter; instead, calf survival was influenced by snow depth and possibly temperature. Increased survival of moose calves during summer and autumn combined with relatively constant winter survival in most years led to a corresponding increase in annual survival of calves following predator treatments. Nonpredation mortalities of calves increased following predator treatments; however, this increase provided little compensation to the decrease in predation mortalities resulting from treatments. Thus, predator-induced calf mortality was primarily additive. Summer survival of moose calves was positively related to calf mass (β > 0.07, SE = 0.073) during treated years and lower (β = −0.82, SE = 0.247) for twins than singletons during all years. Following predator treatments, survival of yearling moose increased 8.7% for females and 21.4% for males during summer and 2.2% for females and 15.6% for males during autumn. Annual survival of adult (≥2 yr old) female moose also increased in treated years and was negatively (β = −0.21, SE = 0.078) related to age. Moose density increased 45%, from 0.38 moose/km² in 2001 to 0.55 moose/km² in 2007, which resulted from annual increases in overall survival of moose, not increases in reproductive rates. Indices of nutritional status remained constant throughout our study despite increased moose density. This information can be used by wildlife managers and policymakers to better understand the outcomes of predator treatments in Alaska and similar environments. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.