The early bronze age graveyards of Franzhausen I, lower Austria. 2. Demographic analysis]

In a recent study of 714 graves of the Early Bronze Age cemetery, Franzhausen I, 658 individuals were demographically analysed. The masculinity rate and the mortality rate in the age groups were of similar order compared with estimates derived from other series of this period. On the base of a stationary population model, life tables were calculated showing life expectancy at birth to be 25.8 years and at the age of 20, 17.7 years. Also computed were: the crude death rate (Z = 38.8); and the population size (P = 31 or 65). The lack of infants were estimated by regressions (5q0 = 58%) and the results are discussed.     

The role of sexual and clonal reproduction in maintaining population in Fritillaria camtschatcensis (L.) Ker-Gawl. (Liliaceae)

Fritillaria camtschatcensis can reproduce by means of both sexual reproduction and clonal multiplication. Despite prolific seed production, no seedlings have been found for several years in natural populations on Mt Hakusan. The purposes of this paper are to clarify: (i) whether population size is maintained mainly by clonal multiplication; and (ii) if this is the case, to what extent occasional seedling establishment affects population growth rate and population structure. Two permanent quadrats were placed in subalpine meadows in 1992 on Mt Hakusan. Plant size, location and reproductive states for all ramets in the quadrats were recorded every year. Projection matrices were created based on field census, and computer simulation experiments were performed. Fritillaria camtschatcensis had two types of flower, male flower and cosexual flower, and they were changeable. This is the first report on sex lability in Fritillaria. Clonal growth was more closely correlated with life-history stages, especially with sexual states than with plant size. The population growth rate, , was 1.006 for the Mizuyajiri population and 1.047 for the Nanryu population, respectively. Seedlings were found in 1996 for the first time. These facts indicate that populations of F. camtschatcensis on Mt Hakusan can usually be maintained by clonal multiplication. However, it is not yet certain whether seeds germinate every year or whether a flush of seedling emergence occurs once in every few years in natural populations. Computer simulation revealed that: (i) there was a critical germination rate above which population growth rate suddenly increased; and (ii) occasional seedling establishment could provide almost the same contribution to population growth rate as that of annual seedling establishment. These results suggest that population size can be maintained mainly by clonal multiplication, and the role of sexual reproduction lies beyond maintaining the population size in F. camtschatcensis.     

越冬地气候条件对鄱阳湖自然保护区白琵鹭种群数量的影响

分析了1985—2011年鄱阳湖国家级自然保护区白琵鹭(Platalea leucorodia)越冬种群数量的年际变化趋势,检验了白琵鹭种群年际数量变化与越冬地气候变化的相关性,气候变量包括月平均气温、月平均最高气温、月平均最低气温和月降水量。研究结果表明,1985—2011年鄱阳湖国家级自然保护区白琵鹭种群数量为(4 632±470)只,呈显著的线性增长趋势,但年际波动较大。在越冬地,白琵鹭的种群数量与白琵鹭越冬期当年冬季各月的气温和降水变量相关系数较小,且均没有显著的相关性。同时,发现越冬地的气候条件对白琵鹭种群数量的影响存在显著的时滞效应:越冬期的月值气候变量与1—9a后的白琵鹭种群数量几乎都存在显著正相关性;10月降水量与2a后的白琵鹭种群数量存在显著负相关,12月平均最高气温与8a后的白琵鹭种群数量存在显著负相关。多元线性回归分析结果表明,越冬地2a前的10月平均最高气温、4a前的11月平均最高气温、8a前的11月降水量、4a前的12月平均气温是白琵鹭种群数量变化的显著预测变量,共同解释了白琵鹭种群数量年际变化的78.9%;其中前3个变量可以共同解释白琵鹭种群数量变化的72.1%,这两个月份正是白琵鹭的越冬初期,是结束长距离迁徙的阶段,可能是白琵鹭补充能量的关键时期,这个时期越冬地恶劣的天气可能导致白琵鹭无法获得充足的能量,不利于能量的恢复,从而可能给种群造成不利的影响。     

The variability of orchid population size

Orchid population size has long been believed to be highly variable in time and space. Here we present the first quantitative assessment of the variability of orchid population sizes and compare them with plant and animal population data from the literature. Three measures of temporal variation were used (standard deviation of log₁₀ (population size), Hurst exponent and variance in the intrinsic rate of increase). Eight unfertilized plots of Orchis morio in a factorial fertilizer experiment were assessed for variability in population size over a 26 year period. The Hurst exponent across the eight plots gave measures consistent with pink noise well into black noise (0.86 to 1.87). The variation in the intrinsic rate of increase suggested that the expected time to extinction in the plots differed by an order of magnitude. Standard deviation of log₁₀ (population size) across plots was greater than the corresponding temporal variation within plots. Standard deviation of log₁₀ (population size) reached an asymptote between 10 and 20 years. The range of temporal variation between plots in this and other orchid populations was as great as the mean values reported for birds, insects and mammals. These results have highlighted the importance of spatial variation: until we know the relative importance of spatial and temporal variation for more plant species we will be unable to assess whether orchid populations are more variable in size than other species.     

Temporal stability in size distributions and growth rates of three Esox lucius L. populations. A result of cannibalism?

The population total length ( L _T) structures and individual growth trajectories for three stream living pike Esox lucius populations were studied for 7 years. All three populations exhibited small variation in both population L _T structure and individual growth trajectories over time. These dynamics contrasted to the much more variable population L _T structure of perch Perca fluviatilis studied previously. The difference in population dynamics between the two species was related to differences in prey:predator size ratios. The pike populations in the more open and larger streams grew to larger sizes, but this difference in life history did not affect population dynamics of pike. It is concluded that (1) cannibalistic population dynamics may be predicted from individual life-history characteristics such as minimum and maximum victim:cannibal size ratios and (2) the cannibal-driven population dynamics observed in pike seems to be robust to variation in environmental conditions (system openness).     

The identification and characterization of two populations of aggregating proteoglycans of high buoyant density isolated from post-natal human articular cartilages of different ages.

After chromatography on Sepharose CL-2B under associative conditions, high-buoyant-density human articular-cartilage proteoglycans were analysed biochemically and by radioimmunoassay with monoclonal antibodies to a core-protein-related epitope and to keratan sulphate. An examination of proteoglycans from individuals of different ages revealed the presence at 1 year of mainly a single polydisperse population containing chondroitin sulphate (uronic acid) and keratan sulphate. From 4 years onwards a smaller keratan sulphate-rich and chondroitin sulphate-deficient population appears in increasing amounts until 15 years. At the same time the larger population shows a progressive decrease in size from 1 year onward. By 23 years and after the proportion of keratan sulphate in the larger chondroitin sulphate-rich proteoglycan increases. Both adult proteoglycan populations are shown immunologically to aggregate with hyaluronic acid, with the smaller showing a greater degree of interaction. The larger population is richer in serine and glycine, and the smaller population contains more glutamic acid/glutamine, alanine, phenylalanine, lysine and arginine; its protein content is also higher. Whether the larger post-natal population represents a different gene product from the single polydisperse population found in the human fetus, which has a different amino acid composition, remains to be established. The smaller population, which represents approximately one-third the mass of the larger population in the adult, may represent a degradation product of the larger population, in which the hyaluronic acid-binding region and keratan sulphate-rich region are conserved.     

The genetic and demographic status of the Western lowland gorilla (Gorilla g. gorilla) in captivity

There are over 600 gorillas in captivity of which 43% are now captive born. Because the wild population is threatened and trade represents a major threat to its long-term survival, the captive population needs to be managed to be demographicalry stable over the long term, while retaining a substantial amount of genetic variation. Projected trends in population size and structure, based on recent fecundity and survival rates, suggest that the captive population will decline slowly unless infant mortality rates can be reduced. From a genetic standpoint, however, the large number of wild-born animals and large population size suggest that there should be no difficulty in achieving genetic aims to preserve 90% heterozygosity over the next 200 years.     

The rise and fall of the Aldabran giant tortoise population.

At the end of the 19th century, after prolonged and extensive harvesting, indigenous giant tortoises had been eliminated from all islands in the Indian Ocean, except Aldabra atoll, where only a few survived. With greatly reduced levels of exploitation during the 20th century, the population recovered to a revised estimated total of 129,000 in 1973-1974, when the first sample census was conducted. A repeat census in 1997 revealed a highly significant reduction in numbers over the past 24 years to an estimated total of 100,000. The great majority of tortoises are still found at relatively high density in south-eastern Grande Terre, where the number of animals has declined by more than one-third. In contrast, low-density subpopulations on Malabar and Picard have almost doubled in size, but they represent less than 5% of the total population. Corroborative evidence for the crash in the Grande Terre subpopulation comes from two independent observations: a significant increase in tortoise mortality; and a significant decline in tortoise counts on long-term population monitoring transects. These population changes are attributed to natural population regulatory mechanisms, exacerbated by low rainfall years in the period 1980-1997, including two consecutive years of below average rainfall in 1995-1996 and 1996-1997.     

Demography and modelling of clonal fragments in the pseudoannual plant shape Trientalis europaea L.

The clonal growth pattern and demography of clonal fragments (aggregation of ramets derived from a common parent ramet) in the pseudoannual plant Trientalis europaea were studied in field conditions from 1991 to 1993. During this period the population of clonal fragments declined, with a half-life of 7.4 years. Number and size of the clonal progeny and stolon length were positively related to the size of the mother ramet. Survival rates of ramets and tubers increased with size. The rate of clonal growth was low: after three years, about 70% of the clonal fragments had only one ramet. This suggests that the pseudoannual growth habit in T. europaea is more important as mechanism of perennation than of ramet multiplication.Field data were used in a simulation model of architecture and population dynamics of clonal fragments. About 10% of the clonal fragments survived to the end of the simulation (15 years) and the mean survival was 4.7 years. The model predicted a positive correlation between persistence of the clonal fragment and number of ramets produced. Sensitivity analysis showed that the production of a daughter ramet of at least the same size as the parent ramet was the most important pathway for the survival and the number of ramets of the clonal fragment, whereas the production of secondary ramets had a very small effect. This confirms the interpretation of the pseudoannual life-cycle as a mechanism of ramet replacement in this species. Sensitivity analysis also revealed that changes in survival probabilities of the smallest ramets had the largest impact on clonal fragment dynamics. This reflects the important role of the smallest size class of ramets as a source of new vegetative propagules, maintaining a hierarchy in the size structure of the population.     

The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in controlling U.K. butterfly population size and phenology

1. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) exerts considerable control on U.K. weather. This study investigates the impact of the NAO on butterfly abundance and phenology using 34 years of data from the U.K. Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (UKBMS).2. The study uses a multi-species indicator to show that the NAO does not affect overall U.K. butterfly population size. However, the abundance of bivoltine butterfly species, which have longer flight seasons, were found to be more likely to respond positively to the NAO compared with univoltine species, which show little or a negative response.3. A positive winter NAO index is associated with warmer weather and earlier flight dates for Anthocharis cardamines (Lepidoptera: Pieridae), Melanargia galathea (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae), Aphantopus hyperantus (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae), Pyronia tithonus (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae), Lasiommata megera (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) and Polyommatus icarus (Lepidoptera: Lycaenidae). In bivoltine species, the NAO affects the phenology of the first generation, the timing of which indirectly controls the timing of the second generation.4. The NAO influences the timing of U.K. butterfly flight seasons more strongly than it influences population size.     

Estimation and management of genetic diversity in small populations of plains zebra (Equus quagga) in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Plains zebras (Equus quagga antiquorum) occur in few large, but many small, isolated populations in KwaZulu-Natal. Problems identified in small populations include reduced striping patterns on hind quarters, smaller size, elevated mortality rates and high number of still-births. Inbreeding may be implicated. Population viability analysis (PVA) was conducted with a computer model (VORTEX), and DNA and allozyme analyses were conducted to test the findings of the model. Using standard methods, DNA (PCR-RAPD) and allozyme diversity was assessed in blood samples from 72 plains zebra from four KwaZulu-Natal Nature Conservation Services (KZN-NCS) protected areas: Umfolozi Game Reserve (UGR), Albert Falls (AFNR), Vernon Crookes (VCNR) and Harold Johnson (HJNR) Nature Reserves. Populations of the latter three, small-sized (9-110 individuals) populations were seeded from the same source population (UGR: current population of 2000) during the past 25 years. Information from PCR-RAPD and allozyme analyses were compared with each other as well as to that predicted by population genetic modelling (using VORTEX). Allozyme heterozygosities were consistently high in all populations (12.1-12.9%), with no observable losses associated with reduced population size. On the other hand, percentage loss of polymorphism (20-39%) calculated from the PCR-RAPD study appeared to be positively correlated with the loss of heterozygosity predicted by population viability analysis (PVA), and negatively correlated with population size. On the basis of the above results, a policy of translocation was advocated for small, intensely managed populations of zebras, whereby a harem should be translocated every five years for a population size of nine (HJNR), while for a population size of 110 (VCNR) translocations should take place every 15 years if heterozygosity is to be maintained at more than 90% within each population over 100 years.     

The role of population size in molecular evolution.

The results of a computer simulation study of the role of population size in population genetical models of molecular evolution are presented. If the mutation rate and strength of selection are held fixed and the population size increased, the eight models examined fall into three domains based on their rates of substitution. In the Ohta domain, the rate of substitution decreases with increasing population size; in the Kimura domain, the rate of substitution remains close to the mutation rate; in the Darwin domain, the rate of substitution increases without bound. In the Kimura and Darwin domains, the rate of substitution is much less sensitive to the population size than suggested by two-allele theories. Remarkably, the overdominance model converges to the neutral model with increasing N. The variation at a neutral locus linked to a selected locus is found to be insensitive to the population size for certain models of selection. A selected locus can actually cause the rate of substitution of deleterious alleles at a linked locus to increase with increasing population size. These unexpected results illustrate that intuition based on two-allele theory is often misleading.     

The effective size of fluctuating populations

We consider a Wright-Fisher model whose population size is an autocorrelated stochastic process. Our interest is in the effects of autocorrelated fluctuations of the population size on the effective size. We define the inbreeding effective size and the variance effective size and show that these effective sizes are the same for this model. In the literature, it is said that the effective size is equal to the harmonic mean of population size when the size fluctuates. We will show, however, that the effective size is not the same as the harmonic mean of population size unless the fluctuations of population size are uncorrelated. The effective size is larger (resp. smaller) than the harmonic mean when the fluctuations of population size are positively (resp. negatively) autocorrelated. Further, we obtain some asymptotic expressions for effective size when the population size is very large and/or the autocorrelation of the fluctuation is very strong.     

Population trends in a substantial colony of Little Penguins: three independent measures over three decades

Estimating long-term population trends is vital for the conservation and management of species, yet few trends exist and fewer still are verified with independent measures. We compared three independent measures of change in population size over 27 years (1984–2011) for a significant Little Penguin Eudyptula minor colony in south-eastern Australia: (1) a series of 13 colony-wide surveys conducted in eight separate years, (2) mean nightly counts of penguins returning to breeding sites (365 counts × 27 years) and (3) population growth rates from a demographic model based on survival and recruitment rates measured at three sites each year. Colony-wide surveys of burrows were used as a benchmark of change in population size in the 8 years they were conducted as they were a robust measure of population size corrected for intra-annual variation in burrow occupancy using mark-recapture modelling at six reference sites. However, the demographic model matched the trend from colony-wide surveys with greater resolution in years and with less effort. Beach counts were unreliable for monitoring trends for the entire population due to its singular and peripheral location in the colony. Trends indicate a doubling of the population from 1984 to 2011 despite a marked population contraction linked to a mass mortality of a key prey species. The colony appears secure but remains subject to changes in the marine and terrestrial environments in the longer term.     

Prediction vs. reality: Can a PVA model predict population persistence 13 years later?

The challenge of conservation biology is to make models that predict population dynamics and have a high probability of accurately tracking population change (increase, decrease, constancy). In this study we tested whether the transition model is accurate enough to predict population persistence and size 13 years down and whether after 13 years populations had achieved a stable stage distribution. We modeled 6 small populations of an epiphytic orchid using a Lefkovitch type analysis to predict population growth pattern based on monthly surveys for approximately 1.5 years. In addition, sensitivity and elasticity analyses were used to identify life stages with high sensitivity or elasticity that have the largest influence on population growth rate. We re-censused the populations 13 years after the first study and compared the structure of the populations to predictions based on the earlier census data. Effective population growth rates were similar to those expected except for one where the population went extinct. The prediction slightly (but not significantly) overestimated the actual population growth rates of some populations. Elasticity analysis revealed that the adult stage is critical in the life cycle. The observed stage distributions of the populations were not stable at the beginning of the survey and neither were they after 13 years. We suggest that this might be caused by external perturbations that result in unequal mortality between life stages and stochastic recruitment events. The ability of the matrices to predict population size approximately eight generations in the future is encouraging and warrants the continued use of these approaches for PVA.     

Extinction risk assessment of declining wild populations: The case of the southern Bluefin Tuna

We estimate the extinction probability of a large and decreasing population, the southern bluefin tuna. This tuna was listed as critically endangered by the World Conservation Union (IUCN) in 1996. However, the absolute population size is still large and the extinction probability within the next half century is negligible if the recent population decline rate does not increase in the future. IUCN’s criterion with respect to the population decline rate should be linked to the absolute population size, if this is estimated. Several methods estimating the probability of extinction conclude that the southern bluefin tuna population will be below 500 mature individuals within the next 100 years and may be listed as vulnerable. These analyses suggest that extinction risk assessment is useful for management action for taxa that still have large population and are rapidly decreasing.     

The distribution of nuclear genetic variation and historical demography of sea otters

The amount and distribution of population genetic variation is crucial information for the design of effective conservation strategies for endangered species and can also be used to provide inference about demographic processes and patterns of migration. Here, we describe variation at a large number of nuclear genes in sea otters Enhydra lutris ssp. We surveyed 14 variable microsatellite loci and two genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) in up to 350 California sea otters Enhydra lutris nereis , which represents ∼10% of the subspecies' population, and 46 otters from two Alaskan sites. We utilized methods for detecting past reductions in effective population size to examine the effects of near extinction from the fur trade. Summary statistic tests largely failed to find a signal of a recent population size reduction (within the past 200 years), but a Bayesian method found a signal of a strong reduction over a longer time scale (up to 500 years ago). These results indicate that the reduction in size began long enough ago that much genetic variation was lost before the 19th century fur trade. A comparison of geographic distance and pairwise relatedness for individual otters found no evidence of kin-based spatial clustering for either gender. This indicates that there is no population structure, due to extended family groups, within the California population. A survey of population genetic variation found that two of the MHC genes, DQB and DRB, had two alleles present and one of the genes, DRA, was monomorphic in otters. This contrasts with other mammals, where they are often the most variable coding genes known. Genetic variation in the sea otter is among the lowest observed for a mammal and raises concerns about the long-term viability of the species, particularly in the face of future environmental changes.     

The effective number of a population that varies cyclically in size. II. Overlapping generations

We consider haploid and dioecious age-structured populations that vary over time in cycles of length k. Results are obtained for both autosomal and sex-linked loci if the population is dioecious. It is assumed that k is small in comparison with numbers of haploid individuals (or of numbers of males and females) in any generation of a cycle. The inbreeding effective population size N(e) is then approximately given by the expression [T summation operator (k-1)(j=0)1/[N(e)(j)T(j)]](-1), where N(e)(j) and T(j) are, respectively, the effective population size and generation interval that would hold if the population was at all times generated in the same way as at time j. The constant T, which is the effective overall generation interval, is defined to be k times the harmonic mean of the quantities T(j). Our expressions for T and N(e), in terms of N(e)(j) and T(j), are general, but the N(e)(j)s are derived under the assumption that offspring are produced according to Poisson distributions.     

Inbreeding levels and prey abundance interact to determine fecundity in natural populations of two species of wolf spider

Long-term effective population size is expected, and has been shown, to correlate positively with various measures of population fitness. Here we examine the interacting effects of population size (as a surrogate for genetic factors) and prey consumption rates (as a surrogate for environmental quality) on fecundity in two sympatric species of wolf spider, Rabidosa punctulata and Rabidosa rabida. Population size was estimated in each of seven genetically isolated populations in each of 3 years using mark-recapture methods. Fecundity was estimated as the mean number of live offspring produced by ∼15 females sampled from each population of each species each year for 3 years. Prey consumption rates were estimated by sampling ∼300 spiders per population per year and assaying the proportion of spiders with prey. Larger populations have higher fecundity and more genetic diversity than smaller populations. Variation among populations in fecundity for a given year could be attributed most strongly to differences in population size, with variation in prey consumption rates and the interaction between population size and prey consumption playing smaller but still important roles. During the most stressful environmental conditions, the smallest populations of both species experienced disproportionately low-fecundity rates, more than doubling the estimated number of lethal equivalents during those years. The evidence presented in this paper for inbreeding-environment interactions at the population level and further evidence for a log-linear relationship between population size and fitness have important implications for conservation.     

气候变化对鄱阳湖白鹤越冬种群数量变化的影响

分析了1983—2011年鄱阳湖国家级自然保护区越冬白鹤种群数量的年际变化趋势,检验了白鹤种群动态与繁殖地和越冬地气候变化的相关性,气候变量包括月平均气温、月平均最高气温、月平均最低气温和月降水量。研究结果表明,鄱阳湖国家级自然保护区内的白鹤年最大数量平均为(2 130±153)只,呈显著地线性增长趋势(R2=0.454,F=22.441,df=28,P=0.000),但年际波动较大。在越冬地,越冬当年10月、11月、12月的气候变量与白鹤种群数量没有显著的相关性,但越冬初期10月份和越冬后期翌年3月份的气温变量与第4年、第5年、第6年及第7年的白鹤种群数量存在显著的正相关,表明越冬地气候对白鹤种群大小的影响存在时滞效应。越冬初期和末期可能是白鹤补充能量的关键阶段,而且越冬初期的气候可能也与冬季食物的数量或质量相关,因此这两个阶段的适宜气温可能有利于个体尤其是幼鹤的存活,使更多的个体参加繁殖,由于白鹤的性成熟年龄在3—5a,因此其对白鹤种群增长的有利影响会在3a以后表现出来。白鹤种群数量变化与繁殖地繁殖期的降水量没有显著的相关性,而与7月份的气温变量存在显著的正相关。多元线性回归分析结果表明,6a前的10月份平均最低温度、2a前的10月最高温度及5a前的10月平均气温是白鹤种群数量变化的显著预测因子,共同解释了鄱阳湖国家级自然保护区白鹤种群数量变化的74.8%(F=23.807,df=27,P=0.000)。