Epidemic human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection among intravenous drug users (IVDU)

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is epidemic among intravenous drug users (IVDU), particularly in the northeastern United States. IVDU are playing a critical role in the spread of HIV by infecting their heterosexual partners and children, as well as their needle-sharing partners. The epidemiology of HIV infection among IVDU is reviewed here, including a compilation of seroprevalence data. Relevant determinants of the future spread of HIV among IVDU are discussed, including the major risk factors for HIV seropositivity, the modes of HIV transmission, and aspects of the natural history of HIV infection in IVDU. The public health policy implications of these issues include the need for education of adolescents and the general public about the risks of drug injection and heterosexual intercourse with IVDU, as well as motivation of IVDU to stop injecting, never share injection paraphernalia, or, at least, clean needles effectively.     

The effect of delayed death in HIV/AIDS models

HIV-infected patients who receive treatment survive for some years after they have acquired the disease. The received treatment causes sustained reduction of viral reproduction by improving the immune function, leading to prolonged progression period to AIDS development. This prolonged progression period has created variability in survival times that affects estimates produced using mathematical models that do not include delay in disease related mortality. This paper investigates the effect of including delay in AIDS death occurrence in HIV/AIDS transmission models. A simple mathematical model with two stages of HIV progression is developed and extended to include time delay in the occurrence of AIDS deaths. Numerical simulations indicate that time delay changes the mortality curves considerably but has less effect on the proportion of infectives. The study highlights the importance of incorporating delay in models of HIV/AIDS for the production of accurate HIV/AIDS estimates.     

Age and Sex Structured Model for Assessing the Demographic Impact of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV/AIDS

Age and sex structured HIV/AIDS model with explicit incubation period is proposed as a system of delay differential equations. The model consists of two age groups that are children (0–14 years) and adults (15–49 years). Thus, the model considers both mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) and heterosexual transmission of HIV in a community. MTCT can occur prenatally, at labour and delivery or postnatally through breastfeeding. In the model, we consider the children age group as a one-sex formulation and divide the adult age group into a two-sex structure consisting of females and males. The important mathematical features of the model are analysed. The disease-free and endemic equilibria are found and their stabilities investigated. We use the Lyapunov functional approach to show the local stability of the endemic equilibrium. Qualitative analysis of the model including positivity and boundedness of solutions, and persistence are also presented. The basic reproductive number (ℛ₀) for the model shows that the adult population is responsible for the spread HIV/AIDS epidemic, thus up-to-date developed HIV/AIDS models to assess intervention strategies have focused much on heterosexual transmission by the adult population and the children population has received little attention. We numerically analyse the HIV/AIDS model to assess the community benefits of using antiretroviral drugs in reducing MTCT and the effects of breastfeeding in settings with high HIV/AIDS prevalence ratio using demographic and epidemiological parameters for Zimbabwe.     

Effects of public health educational campaigns and the role of sex workers on the spread of HIV/AIDS among heterosexuals

This paper presents a sex-structured model for heterosexual transmission of HIV/AIDS in which the population is divided into three subgroups: susceptibles, infectives and AIDS cases. The subgroups are further divided into two classes, consisting of individuals involved in high-risk sexual activities and individuals involved in low-risk sexual activities. The model considers the movement of individuals from high to low sexual activity groups as a result of public health educational campaigns. Thus, in this case public health educational campaigns are resulting in the split of the population into risk groups. The equilibrium and epidemic threshold, which is known as the basic reproductive number (R0), are obtained, and stability (local and global) of the disease-free equilibrium is investigated. The model is extended to incorporate sex workers, and their role in the spread of HIV/AIDS in settings with heterosexual transmission is explored. Comprehensive analytic and numerical techniques are employed in assessing the possible community benefits of public health educational campaigns in controlling HIV/AIDS. From the study, we conclude that the presence of sex workers enlarges the epidemic threshold R0, thus fuels the epidemic among the heterosexuals, and that public health educational campaigns among the high-risk heterosexual population reduces R0, thus can help slow or eradicate the epidemic.     

Development,Calibration and Performance of an HIV Transmission Model Incorporating Natural History and Behavioral Patterns: Application in South Africa

Understanding HIV transmission dynamics is critical to estimating the potential population-wide impact of HIV prevention and treatment interventions. We developed an individual-based simulation model of the heterosexual HIV epidemic in South Africa and linked it to the previously published Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC) International Model, which simulates the natural history and treatment of HIV. In this new model, the CEPAC Dynamic Model (CDM), the probability of HIV transmission per sexual encounter between short-term, long-term and commercial sex worker partners depends upon the HIV RNA and disease stage of the infected partner, condom use, and the circumcision status of the uninfected male partner. We included behavioral, demographic and biological values in the CDM and calibrated to HIV prevalence in South Africa pre-antiretroviral therapy. Using a multi-step fitting procedure based on Bayesian melding methodology, we performed 264,225 simulations of the HIV epidemic in South Africa and identified 3,750 parameter sets that created an epidemic and had behavioral characteristics representative of a South African population pre-ART. Of these parameter sets, 564 contributed 90% of the likelihood weight to the fit, and closely reproduced the UNAIDS HIV prevalence curve in South Africa from 1990–2002. The calibration was sensitive to changes in the rate of formation of short-duration partnerships and to the partnership acquisition rate among high-risk individuals, both of which impacted concurrency. Runs that closely fit to historical HIV prevalence reflect diverse ranges for individual parameter values and predict a wide range of possible steady-state prevalence in the absence of interventions, illustrating the value of the calibration procedure and utility of the model for evaluating interventions. This model, which includes detailed behavioral patterns and HIV natural history, closely fits HIV prevalence estimates.     

Sex-structured HIV/AIDS model to analyse the effects of condom use with application to Zimbabwe

We present a sex-structured model for heterosexual transmission of HIV/AIDS in a community. The model is formulated using integro-differential equations, which are shown to be equivalent to delay differential equations with a time delay due to incubation period. The sex-structured HIV/AIDS model divides the population into a two sex-structure consisting of females and males. The threshold and equilibria for the model are determined and stabilities are examined. We extend the model to focus on the effects of condom use as a single-strategy approach in HIV prevention in the absence of any treatment. Initially we model the use of male condoms and further extend the model to incorporate the use of both female and male condoms. The model includes two primary factors in condom use to control HIV that are condom efficacy and compliance. The exposure risk of infection after each intervention is obtained. Basic reproductive numbers for these models are computed and compared to assess the effectiveness of male and female condom use in a community. The models are numerically analysed to assess the effectiveness of condom use on the transmission dynamics of HIV/AIDS using demographic and epidemiological parameters for Zimbabwe. The study demonstrates the use of sex-structured HIV/AIDS models in assessing the effectiveness of female and male condom use as a preventative strategy in a heterosexually active population. Z. Mukandavire would like to acknowledge financial support given by the National University of Science and Technology through a Staff Development Scholarship. The authors are grateful to Eagle Insurance Company of Zimbabwe for financial support.     

Modeling the AIDS epidemic in Mexico City

To study the future course of the AIDS epidemic in Mexico City, we use an open compartmental model to forecast new AIDS cases among homosexual and bisexual males and among heterosexual males and females. For each group three compartments are defined: uninfected persons, infected but asymptomatic persons, and persons diagnosed with AIDS. It is assumed that the AIDS epidemic will follow the propagation of infectious disease model, where spread of infection is proportional to the product of the number of healthy persons and the number of infected ones. The compartmental model is represented by a system of nonlinear differential equations describing the rate of change in the number of persons in each compartment. The impact of preventive measures is explored by decreasing the probability of HIV transmission, which is one of the model parameters representing behavioral patterns. By April 1989, 491 AIDS cases had been reported in Mexico City and classified as sexually related. Our model predicts that the AIDS incidence will continue to rise in Mexico City for the foreseeable future and will spread among the heterosexual population. Decreasing the transmission probability by 10% in all groups (through education programs) will result in a decrease of 18.1% in the number of accumulated cases over a 5-year period. A 20% decrease would prevent more than 31% of the cases. We conclude that mathematical models can be valuable in predicting the spread of the AIDS epidemic and the impact of behavioral change on its spread.     

A stochastic model for the development of an AIDS epidemic in a heterosexual population.

A non-age-dependent model, describing the evolution of a bisexual population, is developed in this paper and applied to projecting an AIDS epidemic in a heterosexual population. Included in the formulation are frequency- and non-frequency-dependent rules of partnership formation as well as five states of HIV disease, affecting the probability of infection per sexual contact. Results from computer experiments, designed to study the development of an AIDS epidemic in a heterosexual population fed by single males with a 50% prevalence of HIV infection prior to becoming active in heterosexual partnerships, are reported. In these experiments, the only source of HIV infection for females was sexual contacts with infected males within partnerships. Data on the probability of infection per sexual contact with an infected partner and the number of sexual contacts per month were incorporated into the model. However, the numbers used for the initial population of singles, couples, and those becoming sexually active per month were hypothetical. Even though the prevalence of HIV infection among males entering heterosexual partnerships was high, after 30 years the projected prevalence of HIV infection among females ranged from about 10 to 15% depending in part on the expected duration of partnerships and on whether the frequency- or non-frequency-dependent model was used. In these experiments, solutions of the embedded, nonlinear, deterministic equations for the incidence of HIV infection and the cumulative number of deaths due to AIDS proved to be good measures of central tendency for the sample functions of the stochastic population process.     

HIV+/AIDS related bioethical issues in Japan

Annual and cumulative incidences of HIV+ and AIDS in patients reported by the AIDS Surveillance Committee of the Ministry of Health and Welfare are cited to illustrate some characteristics in Japan: nearly 59% of either HIV+ or AIDS patients were infected through injection of blood products or by blood transfusion. A number of plaintiffs have sued the Japanese government and pharmaceutical companies since 1989, but no judicial decisions have yet been made. The incidence of HIV decreases for each of the following routes of infection: the second highest route of transmission being heterosexual, followed by bisexual and unconfirmed or unknown cases, and less frequently homosexual, drug use and lastly via vertical transmission. The most serious bioethical problems with HIV+ and AIDS patients in Japan is the social segregation of these patients. There are many emotional fears among the general public and medical personnel about AIDS because of their inadequate scientific knowledge of this disease. The Japan Hospital Association is doing The Stop AIDS Campaign and made several surveys. Japan has become increasingly aware of the importance of AIDS education and a great deal of effort is being made to enhance bioethical consideration.     

Transitions from injection-drug-use-concentrated to self-sustaining heterosexual HIV epidemics: patterns in the international data

Background

Injecting drug use continues to be a primary driver of HIV epidemics in many parts of the world. Many people who inject drugs (PWID) are sexually active, so it is possible that high-seroprevalence HIV epidemics among PWID may initiate self-sustaining heterosexual transmission epidemics.

Methods

Fourteen countries that had experienced high seroprevalence (<20%) HIV epidemics among PWID and had reliable data for injection drug use (IDU) and heterosexual cases of HIV or AIDS were identified. Graphs of newly reported HIV or AIDS cases among PWID and heterosexuals were constructed to identify temporal relationships between the two types of epidemics. The year in which newly reported cases among heterosexuals surpassed newly reported cases among PWID, aspects of the epidemic curves, and epidemic case histories were analyzed to assess whether it was “plausible” or “highly unlikely” that the HIV epidemic among PWID might have initiated the heterosexual epidemic in each country.

Results

Transitions have occurred in 11 of the 14 countries. Two types of temporal relationships between IDU and heterosexual HIV epidemics were identified, rapid high incidence transitions vs. delayed, low incidence transitions. In six countries it appears “plausible” that the IDU epidemic initiated a heterosexual epidemic, and in five countries it appears “highly unlikely” that the IDU epidemic initiated a heterosexual epidemic. A rapid decline in incidence among PWID after the peak year of new cases and national income were the best predictors of the “highly unlikely” initiation of a heterosexual epidemic.

Discussion

Transitions from IDU concentrated epidemics to heterosexual epidemics are common in countries with high seroprevalence among PWID though there are distinct types of transitions. Interventions to immediately reduce HIV incidence among PWID may reduce the likelihood that an IDU epidemic may initiate a heterosexual epidemic.     

Kunyenga, "real sex," and survival: assessing the risk of HIV infection among urban street boys in Tanzania

This article examines possible avenues of HIV infection among urban street boys in Tanzania. In doing so, it questions the ways that AIDS researchers have defined and approached the phenomenon of "survival sex" in East and Central Africa. The article specifically examines the boys' sexual networks, sexual practices, and attitudes regarding their own sexual behavior, including their perceived risk of HIV/AIDS infection. Seventy-five street boys aged eight to 20 from the city of Mwanza were interviewed. Results suggest that almost all street boys are involved in a sexual network in which homosexual and heterosexual behavior occurs. Homosexual practices are rooted in a complex set of behaviors and ideologies known as kunyenga, which is a situated aspect of life on the streets and helps maintain the boys' strong dependence on one another. A key aspect of the boys' sexual careers involves a decrease in kunyenga activity as they approach the age of 18 and an increase in heterosexual encounters after the age of 11. There appears to be a critical period between these ages in which heterosexual and kunyenga activities overlap. It is suggested that boys between these ages represent a potential bridge for HIV/AIDS infection between the general population and the relatively enclosed sexual network of street boys.     

HIV +/AIDS RELATED BIOETHICAL ISSUES IN JAPAN

Annual and cumulative incidences of HIV + and AIDS in patients reported by the AIDS Surveillance Committee of the Ministry of Health and Welfare are cited to illustrate some characteristics in Japan: nearly 59% of either HIV + or AIDS patients were infected through injection of blood products or by blood transfusion. A number of plaintiffs have sued the Japanese government and pharmaceutical companies since 1989, but no judicial decisions have yet been made. The incidence of HIV decreases for each of the following routes of infection: the second highest route of transmission being heterosexual, followed by bisexual and unconfirmed or unknown cases, and less frequently homosexual, drug use and lastly via vertical transmission. The most serious bioethical problems with HIV + and AIDs patients in Japan is the social segregation of these patients. There are many emotional fears among the general public and medical personnel about AIDS because of their inadequate scientific knowledge of this disease. The Japan Hospital Association is doing The Stop AIDS Campaign and made several surveys. Japan has become increasingly aware of the importance of AIDS education and a great deal of effort is being made to enhance bioethical considerations.     

A policy to control the spread of HIV infection

Prevention of transmission of HIV infection is the most important public health concern of the AIDS epidemic. To date, unfortunately, we have failed to contain the epidemic. The increasingly rapid spread of HIV into the IV drug-abusing population and subsequent heterosexual transmission represent a further failure of the public health system. Current organization of the public health programs, especially the lack of independence and adequate financial and personnel support, is an extremely serious problem. More funding may not be the answer, unless there is better organization. Identification of infected individuals and a vigorous education program must be implemented. HIV antibody-positive individuals should be followed carefully in order to evaluate the risk factors for AIDS and efficacy of specific interventions.     

Assessing the variability of stochastic epidemics.

In predicting the course of individual realizations of an epidemic it is important to know the magnitude of the variability of such realizations about their mean. In this paper and in the context of the general stochastic epidemic, some methods of obtaining approximate estimates of this variability are investigated; one is a multivariate normal approximation based on an asymptotic Gaussian diffusion process, and another uses an approximating linear stochastic process. The extension of these methods to the more detailed models used to describe the transmission dynamics of HIV infection and AIDS is discussed.     

Transient Antibody-Mucin Interactions Produce a Dynamic Molecular Shield against Viral Invasion

Given the difficulty in finding a cure for HIV/AIDS, a promising prevention strategy to reduce HIV transmission is to directly block infection at the portal of entry. The recent Thai RV144 trial offered the first evidence that an antibody-based vaccine may block heterosexual HIV transmission. Unfortunately, the underlying mechanism(s) for protection remain unclear. Here we theoretically examine a hypothesis that builds on our recent laboratory observation: virus-specific antibodies (Ab) can trap individual virions in cervicovaginal mucus (CVM), thereby reducing infection in vivo. Ab are known to have a weak—previously considered inconsequential—binding affinity with the mucin fibers that constitute CVM. However, multiple Ab can bind to the same virion at the same time, which markedly increases the overall Ab-mucin binding avidity, and creates an inheritable virion-mucin affinity. Our model takes into account biologically relevant length and timescales, while incorporating known HIV-Ab affinity and the respective diffusivities of viruses and Ab in semen and CVM. The model predicts that HIV-specific Ab in CVM leads to rapid formation and persistence of an HIV concentration front near the semen/CVM interface, far from the vaginal epithelium. Such an HIV concentration front minimizes the flux of HIV virions reaching target cells, and maximizes their elimination upon drainage of genital secretions. The robustness of the result implies that even exceedingly weak Ab-mucin affinity can markedly reduce the flux of virions reaching target cells. Beyond this specific application, the model developed here is adaptable to other pathogens, mucosal barriers, and geometries, as well as kinetic and diffusional effects, providing a tool for hypothesis testing and producing quantitative insights into the dynamics of immune-mediated protection.     

Transient Antibody-Mucin Interactions Produce a Dynamic Molecular Shield against Viral Invasion

Given the difficulty in finding a cure for HIV/AIDS, a promising prevention strategy to reduce HIV transmission is to directly block infection at the portal of entry. The recent Thai RV144 trial offered the first evidence that an antibody-based vaccine may block heterosexual HIV transmission. Unfortunately, the underlying mechanism(s) for protection remain unclear. Here we theoretically examine a hypothesis that builds on our recent laboratory observation: virus-specific antibodies (Ab) can trap individual virions in cervicovaginal mucus (CVM), thereby reducing infection in vivo. Ab are known to have a weak—previously considered inconsequential—binding affinity with the mucin fibers that constitute CVM. However, multiple Ab can bind to the same virion at the same time, which markedly increases the overall Ab-mucin binding avidity, and creates an inheritable virion-mucin affinity. Our model takes into account biologically relevant length and timescales, while incorporating known HIV-Ab affinity and the respective diffusivities of viruses and Ab in semen and CVM. The model predicts that HIV-specific Ab in CVM leads to rapid formation and persistence of an HIV concentration front near the semen/CVM interface, far from the vaginal epithelium. Such an HIV concentration front minimizes the flux of HIV virions reaching target cells, and maximizes their elimination upon drainage of genital secretions. The robustness of the result implies that even exceedingly weak Ab-mucin affinity can markedly reduce the flux of virions reaching target cells. Beyond this specific application, the model developed here is adaptable to other pathogens, mucosal barriers, and geometries, as well as kinetic and diffusional effects, providing a tool for hypothesis testing and producing quantitative insights into the dynamics of immune-mediated protection.     

The epidemic of human immunodeficiency virus-caused infection among users of psychotropic preparations in Russia

The development of the epidemic of HIV infection among the intravenous injecting users of psychotropic substances in Russia in 1994-1999 is described on the basis of the data provided by territorial centers for the prevention and control of AIDS. In addition, the results of the screening in individual groups of the population of Russia for antibodies to HIV, carried out at the period of 1994 to the first half of 1999, are presented. In 1999 a considerable rise in the number of newly detected cases of HIV infection, mainly among persons injecting psychotropic drugs intravenously for non-medical purposes, was noted. The conclusion was made that the spread of HIV among drug addicts led to its passage to other groups of the population, mainly by heterosexual transmission.     

Resurgence of HIV Infection among Men Who Have Sex with Men in Switzerland: Mathematical Modelling Study

Background

New HIV infections in men who have sex with men (MSM) have increased in Switzerland since 2000 despite combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). The objectives of this mathematical modelling study were: to describe the dynamics of the HIV epidemic in MSM in Switzerland using national data; to explore the effects of hypothetical prevention scenarios; and to conduct a multivariate sensitivity analysis.

Methodology/Principal Findings

The model describes HIV transmission, progression and the effects of cART using differential equations. The model was fitted to Swiss HIV and AIDS surveillance data and twelve unknown parameters were estimated. Predicted numbers of diagnosed HIV infections and AIDS cases fitted the observed data well. By the end of 2010, an estimated 13.5% (95% CI 12.5, 14.6%) of all HIV-infected MSM were undiagnosed and accounted for 81.8% (95% CI 81.1, 82.4%) of new HIV infections. The transmission rate was at its lowest from 1995–1999, with a nadir of 46 incident HIV infections in 1999, but increased from 2000. The estimated number of new infections continued to increase to more than 250 in 2010, although the reproduction number was still below the epidemic threshold. Prevention scenarios included temporary reductions in risk behaviour, annual test and treat, and reduction in risk behaviour to levels observed earlier in the epidemic. These led to predicted reductions in new infections from 2 to 26% by 2020. Parameters related to disease progression and relative infectiousness at different HIV stages had the greatest influence on estimates of the net transmission rate.

Conclusions/Significance

The model outputs suggest that the increase in HIV transmission amongst MSM in Switzerland is the result of continuing risky sexual behaviour, particularly by those unaware of their infection status. Long term reductions in the incidence of HIV infection in MSM in Switzerland will require increased and sustained uptake of effective interventions.     

Characterisation of AIDS presenters and their response to antiretroviral therapy at legnano general hospital (Italy) during the period 2000-2008

The aim of this study was to characterise the AIDS presenters diagnosed between 2000 and 2008 in Legnano (Italy), and describe their initial response to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) and trends over time. Seventy-six (48.7%) of 156 patients diagnosed as having AIDS in the period 2000-2008 were AIDS presenters. The proportion of AIDS presenters increased from 23.8% in 2000 to 70.6% in 2008 (p = 0.009). The major risk factors were heterosexual transmission and a foreign place of birth, and did not significantly change over time. The median CD4+ cell count at diagnosis was 30 cells/microl and the median level of HIV RNA was 5.38 log copies/ml, with no differences between the transmission risk groups. Fifteen AIDS presenters died of AIDS-defining diseases; the others started HAART (72% with 2 NRTIs + boosted PI), and 40% after a drug resistance test. The median duration of the initial HAART was 107 days. After three months, 34% of the patients had undetectable HIV-RNA levels and the median CD4+ cell count was 140 cells/microl; the corresponding figures after 12, 24 and 48 months were respectively 84%, 82.3% and 94.1%, and 310, 370 and 380 cells/microl. In conclusion, the AIDS presenters were mainly heterosexual men and immigrants. Their proportion increased significantly over time, and a substantial proportion maintained an immunovirological response to HAART.