The Metabolic Transition in Japan

The notion of a (socio‐) metabolic transition has been used to describe fundamental changes in socioeconomic energy and material use during industrialization. During the last century, Japan developed from a largely agrarian economy to one of the world's leading industrial nations. It is one of the few industrial countries that has experienced prolonged dematerialization and recently has adopted a rigorous resource policy. This article investigates changes in Japan's metabolism during industrialization on the basis of a material flow account for the period from 1878 to 2005. It presents annual data for material extraction, trade, and domestic consumption by major material group and explores the relations among population growth, economic development, and material (and energy) use. During the observed period, the size of Japan's metabolism grew by a factor of 40, and the share of mineral and fossil materials in domestic material consumption (DMC) grew to more than 90%. Much of the growth in the Japanese metabolism was based on imported materials and occurred in only 20 years after World War II (WWII), when Japan rapidly built up large stocks of built infrastructure, developed heavy industry, and adopted patterns of mass production and consumption. The surge in material use came to an abrupt halt with the first oil crisis, however. Material use stabilized, and the economy eventually began to dematerialize. Although gross domestic product (GDP) grew much faster than material use, improvements in material intensity are a relatively recent phenomenon. Japan emerges as a role model for the metabolic transition but is also exceptional in many ways.     

Resource Use in Small Island States

Iceland and Trinidad and Tobago are small open, high‐income island economies with very specific resource‐use patterns. This article presents a material flow analysis (MFA) for the two countries covering a time period of nearly five decades. Both countries have a narrow domestic resource base, their economy being largely based on the exploitation of one or two key resources for export production. In the case of Trinidad and Tobago, the physical economy is dominated by oil and natural gas extraction and petrochemical industries, whereas Iceland's economy for centuries has been based on fisheries. More recently, abundant hydropower and geothermal heat were the basis for the establishment of large export‐oriented metal processing industries, which fully depend on imported raw materials and make use of domestic renewable electricity. Both countries are highly dependent on these natural resources and vulnerable to overexploitation and price developments. We show how the export‐oriented industries lead to high and growing levels of per capita material and energy use and carbon dioxide emissions resulting from large amounts of processing wastes and energy consumption in production processes. The example of small open economies with an industrial production system focused on few, but abundant, key resources and of comparatively low complexity provides interesting insights of how resource endowment paired with availability or absence of infrastructure and specific institutional arrangements drives domestic resource‐use patterns. This also contributes to a better understanding and interpretation of MFA indicators, such as domestic material consumption.     

Global Phosphorus Flows in the Industrial Economy From a Production Perspective

Human activity has quadrupled the mobilization of phosphorus (P), a nonrenewable resource that is not fully recycled biologically or industrially. P is accumulated in both water and solid waste due to fertilizer application and industrial, agricultural, and animal P consumption. This paper characterizes the industrial flows, which, although smaller than the agricultural and animal flows, are an important phosphorus source contributing to the pollution of surface waters. We present the quantification of the network of flows as constrained by mass balances of the global annual metabolism of phosphorus, based on global consumption for 2004, all of which eventually ends up as waste and in the soil and water systems. We find that on a yearly basis, 18.9 million metric tons (MMT) of P is produced, of which close to 75% goes to fertilizer and the rest to industrial and others uses. Phosphoric acid is the precursor for many of the intermediate and end uses of phosphate compounds described in this study and accounts for almost 80% of all P consumed. Eventually, all of the P goes to waste: 18.5 MMT ends up in the soil as solid waste, and 1.32 MMT is emissions to air and water. Besides quantifying P flows through our economy, we also consider some possible measures that could be taken to increase the degree of recovery and optimization of this resource and others that are closely related, such as the recovery of sulfur from gypsum and wastewater (sludge), and fluorine from wet phosphoric acid production.     

Metabolic Profile of the Colombian Economy from 1970 to 2007

This article characterizes the societal metabolism of the Colombian economy, identifying the main factors of natural resources use, overuse, or exhaustion. The environmental sustainability of a country depends to a large extent on the size of the economy compared to the available resource base. Material flow indicators provide an assessment of size or scale of economies. Direct material flow indicators are used to analyze the ecological dimension of economic activity in the period 1970–2007. Some resource extraction conflicts are briefly described in the light of material flow analysis. Foreign and domestic demand promotes increasing extraction and export of domestic natural resources. This is sometimes related to an irreversible deterioration of the local environment. The concept of “ecologically unequal exchange” with the rest of the world is analyzed in this context. Colombia has a large and growing negative physical trade balance, whereas per capita use of materials is still about half of the industrial countries’ average.     

Recycling Rates of Aluminum in the United States

Recycling rates of aluminum are defined in different (sometimes inconsistent) ways and poorly quantified. To address this situation, the definitions and calculation methods of four groups of indicators are specified for the United States: (1) indicators used to measure recycling efficiencies of old aluminum scrap at the end‐of‐life (EOL) stage, including EOL collection rate (CR), EOL processing rate, EOL recycling rate, and EOL domestic recycling rate; (2) indicators used to compare generation or use of new with old scrap, including new to old scrap ratio, new scrap ratio (NSR), and old scrap ratio; (3) indicators used to compare production or use of primary aluminum with secondary aluminum, including four recycling input rates (RIRs); and (4) indicators used to track the sinks of aluminum metal in the U.S. anthroposphere. I find that the central estimate of EOL CR varies between 38% and 65% in the United States from 1980 to 2009 and shares a relatively similar historical trend with the primary aluminum price. The RIR is shown to be significantly reduced if excluding secondary aluminum produced from new scrap resulting from the relatively high NSR. In 2003, a time when approximately 73% of all of the aluminum produced globally since 1950 was considered to still be “in service,” approximately 68% to 69% of all metallic aluminum that had entered the U.S. anthroposphere since 1900 was still in use: 67% in domestic in‐use stock and 1% to 2% exported as scrap. Only 6% to 7% was definitely lost to the environment, although the destination of 25% of the aluminum was unknown. It was either exported as EOL products, was currently hibernating, or was lost during collection.     

Methodology and Indicators of Economy‐wide Material Flow Accounting

This contribution presents the state of the art of economy‐wide material flow accounting. Starting from a brief recollection of the intellectual and policy history of this approach, we outline system definition, key methodological assumptions, and derived indicators. The next section makes an effort to establish data reliability and uncertainty for a number of existing multinational (European and global) material flow accounting (MFA) data compilations and discusses sources of inconsistencies and variations for some indicators and trends. The results show that the methodology has reached a certain maturity: Coefficients of variation between databases lie in the range of 10% to 20%, and correlations between databases across countries amount to an average R² of 0.95. After discussing some of the research frontiers for further methodological development, we conclude that the material flow accounting framework and the data generated have reached a maturity that warrants material flow indicators to complement traditional economic and demographic information in providing a sound basis for discussing national and international policies for sustainable resource use.     

Dynamic Modeling of In‐Use Cement Stocks in the United States

A dynamic substance‐flow model is developed to characterize the stocks and flows of cement utilized during the 20th century in the United States, using the generic cement life cycle as a systems boundary. The motivation for estimating historical inventories of cement stocks and flows is to provide accurate estimates of contemporary cement in‐use stocks in U.S. infrastructure and future discards to relevant stakeholders in U.S. infrastructure, such as the federal and state highway administrators, departments of transportation, public and private utilities, and the construction and cement industries. Such information will assist in planning future rehabilitation projects and better life cycle management of infrastructure systems. In the present policy environment of climate negotiations, estimates of in‐use cement infrastructure can provide insights about to what extent built environment can act as a carbon sink over its lifetime. The rate of addition of new stock, its composition, and the repair of existing stock are key determinants of infrastructure sustainability. Based upon a probability of failure approach, a dynamic stock and flow model was developed utilizing three statistical lifetime distributions—Weibull, gamma, and lognormal—for each cement end‐use. The model‐derived estimate of the “in‐use” cement stocks in the United States is in the range of 4.2 to 4.4 billion metric tons (gigatonnes, Gt). This indicates that 82% to 87% of cement utilized during the last century is still in use. On a per capita basis, this is equivalent to 14.3 to 15.0 tonnes of in‐use cement stock per person. The in‐use cement stock per capita has doubled over the last 50 years, although the rate of growth has slowed.     

Global Material Flows and Resource Productivity: Forty Years of Evidence

The international industrial ecology (IE) research community and United Nations (UN) Environment have, for the first time, agreed on an authoritative and comprehensive data set for global material extraction and trade covering 40 years of global economic activity and natural resource use. This new data set is becoming the standard information source for decision making at the UN in the context of the post‐2015 development agenda, which acknowledges the strong links between sustainable natural resource management, economic prosperity, and human well‐being. Only if economic growth and human development can become substantially decoupled from accelerating material use, waste, and emissions can the tensions inherent in the Sustainable Development Goals be resolved and inclusive human development be achieved. In this paper, we summarize the key findings of the assessment study to make the IE research community aware of this new global research resource. The global results show a massive increase in materials extraction from 22 billion tonnes (Bt) in 1970 to 70 Bt in 2010, and an acceleration in material extraction since 2000. This acceleration has occurred at a time when global population growth has slowed and global economic growth has stalled. The global surge in material extraction has been driven by growing wealth and consumption and accelerating trade. A material footprint perspective shows that demand for materials has grown even in the wealthiest parts of the world. Low‐income countries have benefited least from growing global resource availability and have continued to deliver primary materials to high‐income countries while experiencing few improvements in their domestic material living standards. Material efficiency, the amount of primary materials required per unit of economic activity, has declined since around 2000 because of a shift of global production from very material‐efficient economies to less‐efficient ones. This global trend of recoupling economic activity with material use, driven by industrialization and urbanization in the global South, most notably Asia, has negative impacts on a suite of environmental and social issues, including natural resource depletion, climate change, loss of biodiversity, and uneven economic development. This research is a good example of the IE research community providing information for evidence‐based policy making on the global stage and testament to the growing importance of IE research in achieving global sustainable development.     

Investigating Reasons for Differences in the Results of Environmental,Physical, and Hybrid Input‐Output Models

It is vital to find reasons for differences in the results of environmental input‐output (EIO), physical input‐output (PIO), and hybrid input‐output (HIO) models for industrial and environmental policy analysis. Using EIO, PIO, and HIO models, China's industrial metabolism is calculated. Four reasons were found to account for differences in the results of analysis using EIO, PIO, and HIO models: the manner in which they deal with residential consumption, service sectors, and waste recycling, and the assumption of unique sector prices. The HIO model, which treats residential consumption as sectors of the intermediate delivery matrix, is preferred to the EIO and PIO models for analyzing industrial and environmental policies. Moreover, waste recycling in five sectors—agriculture; the manufacture of paper, printing, and articles for culture, education, and sports activities; the manufacture of nonmetallic mineral products; smelting and pressing of metals; and construction—should be comprehensively considered when using the HIO model to study problems related to these five sectors. Improvements in the EIO, PIO, and HIO models and future work are also discussed.     

A review of methods to trace material flows into final products in dynamic material flow analysis: Comparative application of six methods to the United States and EXIOBASE3 regions,Part 2

Modeling pathways toward sustainable production and consumption requires improved spatio-temporal and material coverage of end-use product stocks. Momentarily, studies on inflow-driven, dynamic material flow analysis (dMFA) extrapolate scarce information on material end-use shares (i.e., ratios that split economy-wide material consumption to different end-use products) for single countries and years across longer time periods and global regions. Therefore, in part 1 of this work, we reviewed five methods to derive material end-use shares which use industry shipment data in physical units and monetary input–output tables (MIOTs). Herein, we comparatively apply these methods to the United States, drawing on detailed national data, as well as the multi-regional input–output model EXIOBASE3. To better match MIOT and dMFA system definitions, we propose the end-use transfer method, which re-routes specific intermediate outputs to final demand in MIOTs. In closing, we conclude on 12 points for improved end-use shares. We find mixed results regarding the fit between end-use shares derived from industry shipments and MIOTs: for detailed national data, we find good fit for some materials (e.g., aluminum), while others deviate strongly (e.g., steel). In many cases, the temporal trend of MIOT-derived end-use shares roughly agrees with industry shipments. For EXIOBASE3, we find good fit for some countries and materials, but substantial mismatches for others. Despite mixed results, combining MIOT-based end-use shares with industry shipments and auxiliary country-level data could enable improved temporal, geographical, and end-use resolution. However, the scarcity, documentation, and quality of input data are key limitations for more accurate and detailed end-use shares. This article met the requirements for a gold-gold data openness badge described at http://jie.click/badges .      

Approaches for Quantifying the Metabolism of Physical Economies: Part I: Methodological Overview

This article is the first of a two-part series that describes and compares the essential features of nine existing "physical economy" approaches for quantifying the material demands of the human economy upon the natural environment. A range of material flow analysis (MFA) and related techniques is assessed and compared in terms of several major dimensions. These include the system boundary identification for material flow sources, extents, and the key socioinstitutional entities containing relevant driving forces, as well as the nature and detailing of system components and flow interconnections, and the comprehensiveness and types of flows and materials covered.
Shared conceptual themes of a new wave of physical economy approaches are described with a brief overview of the potential applications of this broad family of methodologies. The evolving and somewhat controversial nature of the characteristics and role that define MFA is examined. This review suggests the need to specify whether MFA is a general metabolic flow measurement procedure that can be applied from micro to macrolevels of economic activity, or a more specific methodology aimed primarily at economy-wide analyses that "map" the material relations between society and nature. Some alternative options for classifying MFA are introduced for discussion before a more detailed comparative summary of the key methodological features of each approach in the second part of this two-part article.
The review is presented (1) as a reference and resource for the increasing number of policy makers and practitioners involved in industrial ecology and the evaluation of the material basis of economies and the formulation of eco-efficiency strategies, and (2) to provoke discussion and ongoing dialogue to clarify the many existing areas of discordance in environmental accounting related to material flows, and help consolidate the methodological basis and application of MFA.     

Regional material flow accounts for China: Examining China's natural resource use at the provincial and national level

Over the last three decades, China has experienced the most dynamic economic development lifting living standards and resulting in fast‐growing use of natural resources. In the past, the focus has been on national MFA accounts which do not do justice to the second largest economy, home to 19% of the world population and having 30% of global material use. In this research, we calculate material extraction for China at the regional level during 1995–2015 using the most recent available statistical data and applying the most up‐to‐date international calculation methods. In particular, we combine a bottom‐up and top‐down approach for constructing the dataset of China's economically used Domestic Extraction (DEU) in an integrated way. This approach also improves the Chinese national material flow accounts and allows us to present a reliable database of DE of materials for China to date. Our new dataset provides the basis for calculating material footprints and environmental impacts of China's regions. The dataset enables us to evaluate regional resource efficiency trends in China. We find that during the past two decades, China's material use has grown strongly from 11.7 billion tonnes in 1995 to 35.4 billion tonnes in 2015. Material use has accelerated between 2000 and 2010 but slowed down between 2010 and 2015 reflecting the economic contraction caused by the Global Financial Crisis which reduced the global demand for China's manufacturing and a reorientation of China's economic policy settings toward quality of growth. Unsurprisingly, different regions play different roles in the supply chain of materials, achieving different economic performances resulting in very diverse material efficiency outcomes. This information is important to allow for a targeted policy approach to increase resource efficiency, reduce environmental impacts of resource use, and grow wellbeing in China with large positive implications for global sustainability. This study provides the basis for the development of relevant resource management policies for different regions in the future.     

Lifespan of Commodities,Part I

Lifespan is an essential parameter for the accounting and analysis of material stocks and flows, one of the main research topics in industrial ecology. Lifespan is also important as a parameter that portrays the current and historical situation of industrial metabolism, which is an area of interest to industrial ecologists. In the present article, the available information from various reports on product lifespan was reviewed. Although we found a large number of data for many durables, the definition of lifespan in published articles varied, which limited our ability to compare reported values. We therefore first defined lifespan and then compared the international and historical data. We compiled more than 1,300 data sets from various sources and identified some differences among the types of goods and among regions. With the reviewed data noted in this article, we established a database, named LiVES (Lifespan Database for Vehicles, Equipment, and Structures), and will disclose it on the Internet to share the information.     

The Raw Material Equivalents of International Trade

This article aims at estimating the raw material equivalents (RMEs)—the upstream used material flows required along the production chain—of imports and exports for some Latin American countries: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, and Mexico. Furthermore, the United States is included in the analysis as a reference for a high‐income economy. The RME concept and the empirical evidence are articulated by use of an input?output methodology. Results are set out for the year 2003 for each of the countries and in time series for the years 1977, 1986, 1996, and 2003 in the case of Chile. The findings show not only the physical dimensions behind direct material traded but also how the previous exporter (importer) position of a country (based on standard material flow analysis indicators) deteriorates, alleviates, or changes. Implications for material consumption indicators, such as direct material consumption (DMC) and raw material consumption (RMC), are also drawn. The results suggest basing the discussion of material flows on a broader set of indicators to obtain a more comprehensive picture of the implications of international trade and its impacts on the environment.     

Material Flow Indicators in the Czech Republic in Light of the Accession to the European Union

This article deals with the economy‐wide material flows in the Czech Republic in 1990–2006. It presents in brief the overall trends of the material flow indicators in 1990–2002. The major part of the article is focused on the years 2002–2006, which immediately preceded and followed the accession of the Czech Republic to the European Union in 2004. It is shown that this accession had quite a significant impact on the volume and character of the material flows of the Czech Republic. The accession was beneficial from an economic point of view, as it allowed for an increased supply of materials needed for economic growth. Furthermore, it was accompanied by an improvement in the efficiency of material transformation into economic output. From an environmental and broader sustainability point of view, however, this accession brought about some controversial outcomes. There was a significant increase in the net export of environmental pressure, on one hand, and an increase in net additions to the physical stock of the economy, on the other. Although the former is controversial from the viewpoint of equity in sharing area and resources, the latter places an additional burden on future generations because all physical stocks will turn into waste and emissions at some point, when their life span expires.     

The Dematerialization Potential of the Australian Economy

In this article we test the long‐term dematerialization potential for Australia in terms of materials, energy, and water use as well as CO₂ emissions by introducing concrete targets for major sectors. Major improvements in the construction and housing, transport and mobility, and food and nutrition sectors in the Australian economy, if coupled with significant reductions in the resource export sectors, would substantially improve the current material, energy, and emission intensive pattern of Australia's production and consumption system. Using the Australian Stocks and Flows Framework we model all system interactions to understand the contributions of large‐scale changes in technology, infrastructure, and lifestyle to decoupling the economy from the environment. The modeling shows a considerable reduction in natural resource use, while energy and water use decrease to a much lesser extent because a reduction in natural resource consumption creates a trade‐off in energy use. It also shows that trade and economic growth may continue, but at a reduced rate compared with a business‐as‐usual scenario. The findings of our modeling are discussed in light of the large body of literature on dematerialization, eco‐efficiency, and rebound effects that may occur when efficiency is increased. We argue that Australia cannot rely on incremental efficiency gains but has to undergo a sustainability transition to achieve a low carbon future to keep in line with the international effort to avoid climate change and resource use conflicts. We touch upon the institutional changes that would be required to guide a sustainability transition in the Australian economy, such as an emission trading scheme.     

Data Acquisition for Applying Physical Input‐Output Tables in Chinese Cities

The physical input‐output table (PIOT) is a useful tool for analyzing the environmental sustainability of cities. Taking Chinese statistical sources as an example in this study, we discuss data acquisition methods for applying the PIOT to cities. We propose several methods and present a case study of Suzhou City to illustrate the proposed methods. These methods can provide foundations for constructing the PIOT of cities in other countries.     

Maintenance and Expansion: Modeling Material Stocks and Flows for Residential Buildings and Transportation Networks in the EU25

Material stocks are an important part of the social metabolism. Owing to long service lifetimes of stocks, they not only shape resource flows during construction, but also during use, maintenance, and at the end of their useful lifetime. This makes them an important topic for sustainable development. In this work, a model of stocks and flows for nonmetallic minerals in residential buildings, roads, and railways in the EU25, from 2004 to 2009 is presented. The changing material composition of the stock is modeled using a typology of 72 residential buildings, four road and two railway types, throughout the EU25. This allows for estimating the amounts of materials in in‐use stocks of residential buildings and transportation networks, as well as input and output flows. We compare the magnitude of material demands for expansion versus those for maintenance of existing stock. Then, recycling potentials are quantitatively explored by comparing the magnitude of estimated input, waste, and recycling flows from 2004 to 2009 and in a business‐as‐usual scenario for 2020. Thereby, we assess the potential impacts of the European Waste Framework Directive, which strives for a significant increase in recycling. We find that in the EU25, consisting of highly industrialized countries, a large share of material inputs are directed at maintaining existing stocks. Proper management of existing transportation networks and residential buildings is therefore crucial for the future size of flows of nonmetallic minerals.     

A review of methods to trace material flows into final products in dynamic material flow analysis: From industry shipments in physical units to monetary input–output tables,Part 1

Dynamic material flow analysis (dMFA) is widely used to model stock-flow dynamics. To appropriately represent material lifetimes, recycling potentials, and service provision, dMFA requires data about the allocation of economy-wide material consumption to different end-use products or sectors, that is, the different product stocks, in which material consumption accumulates. Previous estimates of this allocation only cover few years, countries, and product groups. Recently, several new methods for estimating end-use product allocation in dMFA were proposed, which so far lack systematic comparison. We review and systematize five methods for tracing material consumption into end-use products in inflow-driven dMFA and discuss their strengths and limitations. Widely used data on industry shipments in physical units have low spatio-temporal coverage, which limits their applicability across countries and years. Monetary input–output tables (MIOTs) are widely available and their economy-wide coverage makes them a valuable source to approximate material end-uses. We find four distinct MIOT-based methods: consumption-based, waste input–output MFA (WIO-MFA), Ghosh absorbing Markov chain, and partial Ghosh. We show that when applied to a given MIOT, the methods’ underlying input–output models yield the same results, with the exception of the partial Ghosh method, which involves simplifications. For practical applications, the MIOT system boundary must be aligned to those of dMFA, which involves the removal of service flows, sector (dis)aggregation, and re-defining specific intermediate outputs as final demand. Theoretically, WIO-MFA, applied to a modified MIOT, produces the most accurate results as it excludes massless and waste transactions. In part 2 of this work, we compare methods empirically and suggest improvements for aligning MIOT-dMFA system boundaries.     

Materials Metabolism Analysis of China's Highway Traffic System (HTS) for Promoting Circular Economy

With the rapid growth of highway mileage and vehicles, the Chinese highway traffic system (HTS) has become one of the great resource consumers. This article attempts to evaluate the material metabolism of China's HTS during 2001–2005 using the approach of material flow analysis (MFA) and to explore possible measures to promote circular economy throughout HTS. We measured a set of indicators to illustrate the whole material metabolism of China's HTS. The results indicated that the direct material input (DMI) of China's HTS increased from 1181.26 million tonnes (Mt) in 2001 to 1,874.57 Mt in 2005, and about 80% of DMI was accumulated in the system as infrastructure and vehicles. The domestic processed output (DPO) increased by 59.0% from 2001 to 2005. Carbon dioxide and solid waste accounted for 80.5% and 10.4% of DPO, respectively. The increase of resource consumption and pollutant emissions kept pace with the growth of transportation turnover. All these suggest that China's HTS still followed an extensive linear developing pattern with large resource consumption and heavy pollution emissions during the study period, which brought great challenges to the resources and the environment. Therefore, it's high time for China to implement a circular economy throughout the HTS by instituting resource and energy savings, by reducing emissions in the field of infrastructure construction and maintenance, by reducing vehicles’ energy and materials consumption, and by recycling waste materials.