Evolution of reproductive effort in a metapopulation with local extinctions and ecological succession

Abstract Using a metapopulation model, we study how local extinctions, limited population life span, and local demographic disequilibrium affect the evolution of the reproductive effort in a species with overlapping generations but no senescence. We show that in a metapopulation with saturation of all sites and an infinite deme maximal life span (no succession), local extinctions simply constitute an additional source of extrinsic mortality. When either the hypothesis of an infinite deme maximal life span or the saturation hypothesis is relaxed, nontrivial predictions arise. in particular, we find interactions between the evolutionarily stable reproductive effort strategy and the demographic dynamics in the metapopulation. We predict that larger reproductive effort may be selected for in habitats of poorer productivity, contrary to what would be predicted in a single population. Also, we predict that higher dispersal rates should favor selection for lower reproductive efforts. However, metapopulation parameters that favor high dispersal rates also favor larger reproductive efforts. Conflicting selection pressures in the metapopulation also allow maintaining evolutionarily stable polymorphism between a low and high reproductive effort for particular trade-offs between survival and fecundity.     

Reproductive and post‐reproductive life history of wild‐caught Drosophila melanogaster under laboratory conditions

The life history of the fruit fly (Drosophila melanogaster) is well understood, but fitness components are rarely measured by following single individuals over their lifetime, thereby limiting insights into lifetime reproductive success, reproductive senescence and post‐reproductive lifespan. Moreover, most studies have examined long‐established laboratory strains rather than freshly caught individuals and may thus be confounded by adaptation to laboratory culture, inbreeding or mutation accumulation. Here, we have followed the life histories of individual females from three recently caught, non‐laboratory‐adapted wild populations of D. melanogaster. Populations varied in a number of life‐history traits, including ovariole number, fecundity, hatchability and lifespan. To describe individual patterns of age‐specific fecundity, we developed a new model that allowed us to distinguish four phases during a female's life: a phase of reproductive maturation, followed by a period of linear and then exponential decline in fecundity and, finally, a post‐ovipository period. Individual females exhibited clear‐cut fecundity peaks, which contrasts with previous analyses, and post‐peak levels of fecundity declined independently of how long females lived. Notably, females had a pronounced post‐reproductive lifespan, which on average made up 40% of total lifespan. Post‐reproductive lifespan did not differ among populations and was not correlated with reproductive fitness components, supporting the hypothesis that this period is a highly variable, random ‘add‐on’ at the end of reproductive life rather than a correlate of selection on reproductive fitness. Most life‐history traits were positively correlated, a pattern that might be due to genotype by environment interactions when wild flies are brought into a novel laboratory environment but that is unlikely explained by inbreeding or positive mutational covariance caused by mutation accumulation.     

Post-reproductive life span and demographic stability

Recent field studies suggest that it is common in nature for animals to outlive their reproductive viability. Post-reproductive life span has been observed in a broad range of vertebrate and invertebrate species. But post-reproductive life span poses a paradox for traditional theories of life history evolution. The commonly cited explanation is the “grandmother hypothesis”, which applies only to higher, social mammals. We propose that post-reproductive life span evolves to stabilize predator-prey population dynamics, avoiding local extinctions. In the absence of senescence, juveniles would be the most susceptible age class. If juveniles are the first to disappear when predation pressure is high, this amplifies the population’s risk of extinction. A class of older, senescent individuals can help shield the juveniles from predation, stabilizing demographics and avoiding extinction. If, in addition, the life history is arranged so that the older individuals are no longer fertile, the stabilizing effect is further enhanced.     

Physiological dynamics,reproduction‐maintenance allocations,and life history evolution

Allocation of resources to competing processes of growth, maintenance, or reproduction is arguably a key process driving the physiology of life history trade‐offs and has been shown to affect immune defenses, the evolution of aging, and the evolutionary ecology of offspring quality. Here, we develop a framework to investigate the evolutionary consequences of physiological dynamics by developing theory linking reproductive cell dynamics and components of fitness associated with costly resource allocation decisions to broader life history consequences. We scale these reproductive cell allocation decisions to population‐level survival and fecundity using a life history approach and explore the effects of investment in reproduction or tissue‐specific repair (somatic or reproductive) on the force of selection, reproductive effort, and resource allocation decisions. At the cellular level, we show that investment in protecting reproductive cells increases fitness when reproductive cell maturation rate is high or reproductive cell death is high. At the population level, life history fitness measures show that cellular protection increases reproductive value by differential investment in somatic or reproductive cells and the optimal allocation of resources to reproduction is moulded by this level of investment. Our model provides a framework to understand the evolutionary consequences of physiological processes underlying trade‐offs and highlights the insights to be gained from considering fitness at multiple levels, from cell dynamics through to population growth.     

Interactive life‐history traits predict sensitivity of plants and animals to temporal autocorrelation

Temporal autocorrelation in demographic processes is an important aspect of population dynamics, but a comprehensive examination of its effects on different life‐history strategies is lacking. We use matrix population models from 454 plant and animal populations to simulate stochastic population growth rates (log λ_s) under different temporal autocorrelations in demographic rates , using simulated and observed covariation among rates. We then test for differences in sensitivities, or changes of log λ_s to changes in autocorrelation among two major axes of life‐history strategies, obtained from phylogenetically informed principal component analysis: the fast‐slow and reproductive‐strategy continua. Fast life histories exhibit highest sensitivities to simulated autocorrelation in demographic rates across reproductive strategies. Slow life histories are less sensitive to temporal autocorrelation, but their sensitivities increase among highly iteroparous species. We provide cross‐taxonomic evidence that changes in the autocorrelation of environmental variation may affect a wide range of species, depending on complex interactions of life‐history strategies.     

Fitness,reproduction and longevity among European aristocratic and rural Finnish families in the 1700s and 1800s

The life histories of two socio-economically different groups of humans comprising birth cohorts from the 1700s and 1800s were investigated. It was discovered that fertility selection was greater among European aristocrats and mortality selection greater among rural Finns. The life history of the rural Finns involved shorter female life spans, a considerably longer period of reproduction, higher juvenile mortality, a greater total production of offspring and slightly higher individual fitness. In a comparison of parental cohorts, it was discovered that longevity and progeny survival improved significantly from the 1700s to the 1800s. Out of the three factors investigated, longevity was found to influence reproduction and fitness more than socio-economic group or birth cohort. The reproductive efficacy and fitness of women increased along with their life span. However, reproductive success and fitness were lower among women with the longest life span (over 80 years). Among men, reproductive success improved consistently along with the increase in longevity. When birth intervals were examined, it was discovered that the sex of previous offspring did not influence the interval between births.     

Life‐history evolution under fluctuating density‐dependent selection and the adaptive alignment of pace‐of‐life syndromes

We present a novel perspective on life‐history evolution that combines recent theoretical advances in fluctuating density‐dependent selection with the notion of pace‐of‐life syndromes (POLSs) in behavioural ecology. These ideas posit phenotypic co‐variation in life‐history, physiological, morphological and behavioural traits as a continuum from the highly fecund, short‐lived, bold, aggressive and highly dispersive ‘fast’ types at one end of the POLS to the less fecund, long‐lived, cautious, shy, plastic and socially responsive ‘slow’ types at the other. We propose that such variation in life histories and the associated individual differences in behaviour can be explained through their eco‐evolutionary dynamics with population density – a single and ubiquitous selective factor that is present in all biological systems. Contrasting regimes of environmental stochasticity are expected to affect population density in time and space and create differing patterns of fluctuating density‐dependent selection, which generates variation in fast versus slow life histories within and among populations. We therefore predict that a major axis of phenotypic co‐variation in life‐history, physiological, morphological and behavioural traits (i.e. the POLS) should align with these stochastic fluctuations in the multivariate fitness landscape created by variation in density‐dependent selection. Phenotypic plasticity and/or genetic (co‐)variation oriented along this major POLS axis are thus expected to facilitate rapid and adaptively integrated changes in various aspects of life histories within and among populations and/or species. The fluctuating density‐dependent selection POLS framework presented here therefore provides a series of clear testable predictions, the investigation of which should further our fundamental understanding of life‐history evolution and thus our ability to predict natural population dynamics.     

SEASONALITY MAINTAINS ALTERNATIVE LIFE‐HISTORY PHENOTYPES

Many organisms express discrete alternative phenotypes (polyphenisms) in relation to predictable environmental variation. However, the evolution of alternative life‐history phenotypes remains poorly understood. Here, we analyze the evolution of alternative life histories in seasonal environments by using temperate insects as a model system. Temperate insects express alternative developmental pathways of diapause and direct development, the induction of a certain pathway affecting fitness through its life‐history correlates. We develop a methodologically novel and holistic simulation model and optimize development time, growth rate, body size, reproductive effort, and adult life span simultaneously in both developmental pathways. The model predicts that direct development should be associated with shorter development time (duration of growth) and adult life span, higher growth rate and reproductive effort, smaller body size as well as lower fecundity compared to the diapause pathway, because the two generations divide the available time unequally. These predictions are consistent with many empirical data. Our analysis shows that seasonality alone can explain the evolution of alternative life histories.     

The influence of size-dependent life-history traits on the structure and dynamics of populations and communities

Individual organisms often show pronounced changes in body size throughout life with concomitant changes in ecological performance. We synthesize recent insight into the relationship between size dependence in individual life history and population dynamics. Most studies have focused on size‐dependent life‐history traits and population size‐structure in the highest trophic level, which generally leads to population cycles with a period equal to the juvenile delay. These cycles are driven by differences in competitiveness of differently sized individuals. In multi‐trophic systems, size dependence in life‐history traits at lower trophic levels may have consequences for both the dynamics and structure of communities, as size‐selective predation may lead to the occurrence of emergent Allee effects and the stabilization of predator–prey cycles. These consequences are linked to that individual development is density dependent. We conjecture that especially this population feedback on individual development may lead to new theoretical insight compared to theory based on unstructured or age‐dependent models. Density‐dependent individual development may also cause individuals to realize radically different life histories, dependent on the state and dynamics of the population during their life and may therefore have consequences for individual behaviour or the evolution of life‐history traits as well.     

Estimation of fitness from energetics and life‐history data: An example using mussels

Changing environments have the potential to alter the fitness of organisms through effects on components of fitness such as energy acquisition, metabolic cost, growth rate, survivorship, and reproductive output. Organisms, on the other hand, can alter aspects of their physiology and life histories through phenotypic plasticity as well as through genetic change in populations (selection). Researchers examining the effects of environmental variables frequently concentrate on individual components of fitness, although methods exist to combine these into a population level estimate of average fitness, as the per capita rate of population growth for a set of identical individuals with a particular set of traits. Recent advances in energetic modeling have provided excellent data on energy intake and costs leading to growth, reproduction, and other life‐history parameters; these in turn have consequences for survivorship at all life‐history stages, and thus for fitness. Components of fitness alone (performance measures) are useful in determining organism response to changing conditions, but are often not good predictors of fitness; they can differ in both form and magnitude, as demonstrated in our model. Here, we combine an energetics model for growth and allocation with a matrix model that calculates population growth rate for a group of individuals with a particular set of traits. We use intertidal mussels as an example, because data exist for some of the important energetic and life‐history parameters, and because there is a hypothesized energetic trade‐off between byssus production (affecting survivorship), and energy used for growth and reproduction. The model shows exactly how strong this trade‐off is in terms of overall fitness, and it illustrates conditions where fitness components are good predictors of actual fitness, and cases where they are not. In addition, the model is used to examine the effects of environmental change on this trade‐off and on both fitness and on individual fitness components.     

Evolution of alternative insect life histories in stochastic seasonal environments

Deterministic seasonality can explain the evolution of alternative life history phenotypes (i.e., life history polyphenism) expressed in different generations emerging within the same year. However, the influence of stochastic variation on the expression of such life history polyphenisms in seasonal environments is insufficiently understood. Here, we use insects as a model and explore (1) the effects of stochastic variation in seasonality and (2) the life cycle on the degree of life history differentiation among the alternative developmental pathways of direct development and diapause (overwintering), and (3) the evolution of phenology. With numerical simulation, we determine the values of development (growth) time, growth rate, body size, reproductive effort, adult life span, and fecundity in both the overwintering and directly developing generations that maximize geometric mean fitness. The results suggest that natural selection favors the expression of alternative life histories in the alternative developmental pathways even when there is stochastic variation in seasonality, but that trait differentiation is affected by the developmental stage that overwinters. Increasing environmental unpredictability induced a switch to a bet‐hedging type of life history strategy, which is consistent with general life history theory. Bet‐hedging appeared in our study system as reduced expression of the direct development phenotype, with associated changes in life history phenotypes, because the fitness value of direct development is highly variable in uncertain environments. Our main result is that seasonality itself is a key factor promoting the evolution of seasonally polyphenic life histories but that environmental stochasticity may modulate the expression of life history phenotypes.     

FIXATION OF SLIGHTLY BENEFICIAL MUTATIONS: EFFECTS OF LIFE HISTORY

Recent studies of rates of evolution have revealed large systematic differences among organisms with different life histories, both within and among taxa. Here, we consider how life history may affect the rate of evolution via its influence on the fixation probability of slightly beneficial mutations. Our approach is based on diffusion modeling for a finite, stage‐structured population with stochastic population dynamics. The results, which are verified by computer simulations, demonstrate that even with complex population structure just two demographic parameters are sufficient to give an accurate approximation of the fixation probability of a slightly beneficial mutation. These are the reproductive value of the stage in which the mutation first occurs and the demographic variance of the population. The demographic variance also determines what influence population size has on the fixation probability. This model represents a substantial generalization of earlier models, covering a large range of life histories.     

The force of selection on the human life cycle

In this article, I present evidence for a robust and quite general force of selection on the human life cycle. The force of selection acts in remarkably invariant ways on human life histories, despite a great abundance of demographic diversity. Human life histories are highly structured, with mortality and fertility changing substantially through the life cycle. This structure necessitates the use of structured population models to understand human life history evolution. Using such structured models, I find that the vital rates to which fitness is most sensitive are prereproductive survival probabilities, particularly the survival of children ages 0 to 4 years. The fact that the preponderance of selection falls on transitions related to recruitment combined with the late age at first reproduction characteristic of the human life cycle creates a fitness bottleneck out of recruitment. Because of this, antagonistic pleiotropy with any trait that detracts from the constituent transitions to recruitment is expected. I explore the predictors of variation in the force of selection on early survival. High fertility increases the selective premium placed on early survivorship, whereas high life expectancy at birth decreases it.     

Wolf in sheep's clothing: Model misspecification undermines tests of the neutral theory for life histories

Understanding the processes behind change in reproductive state along life‐history trajectories is a salient research program in evolutionary ecology. Two processes, state dependence and heterogeneity, can drive the dynamics of change among states. Both processes can operate simultaneously, begging the difficult question of how to tease them apart in practice. The Neutral Theory for Life Histories (NTLH) holds that the bulk of variations in life‐history trajectories is due to state dependence and is hence neutral: Once previous (breeding) state is taken into account, variations are mostly random. Lifetime reproductive success (LRS), the number of descendants produced over an individual's reproductive life span, has been used to infer support for NTLH in natura. Support stemmed from accurate prediction of the population‐level distribution of LRS with parameters estimated from a state dependence model. We show with Monte Carlo simulations that the current reliance of NTLH on LRS prediction in a null hypothesis framework easily leads to selecting a misspecified model, biased estimates and flawed inferences. Support for the NTLH can be spurious because of a systematic positive bias in estimated state dependence when heterogeneity is present in the data but ignored in the analysis. This bias can lead to spurious positive covariance between fitness components when there is in fact an underlying trade‐off. Furthermore, neutrality implied by NTLH needs a clarification because of a probable disjunction between its common understanding by evolutionary ecologists and its translation into statistical models of life‐history trajectories. Irrespective of what neutrality entails, testing hypotheses about the dynamics of change among states in life histories requires a multimodel framework because state dependence and heterogeneity can easily be mistaken for each other.     

Twelve fundamental life histories evolving through allocation‐dependent fecundity and survival

An organism's life history is closely interlinked with its allocation of energy between growth and reproduction at different life stages. Theoretical models have established that diminishing returns from reproductive investment promote strategies with simultaneous investment into growth and reproduction (indeterminate growth) over strategies with distinct phases of growth and reproduction (determinate growth). We extend this traditional, binary classification by showing that allocation‐dependent fecundity and mortality rates allow for a large diversity of optimal allocation schedules. By analyzing a model of organisms that allocate energy between growth and reproduction, we find twelve types of optimal allocation schedules, differing qualitatively in how reproductive allocation increases with body mass. These twelve optimal allocation schedules include types with different combinations of continuous and discontinuous increase in reproduction allocation, in which phases of continuous increase can be decelerating or accelerating. We furthermore investigate how this variation influences growth curves and the expected maximum life span and body size. Our study thus reveals new links between eco‐physiological constraints and life‐history evolution and underscores how allocation‐dependent fitness components may underlie biological diversity.     

From stochastic environments to life histories and back

Environmental stochasticity is known to play an important role in life-history evolution, but most general theory assumes a constant environment. In this paper, we examine life-history evolution in a variable environment, by decomposing average individual fitness (measured by the long-run stochastic growth rate) into contributions from average vital rates and their temporal variation. We examine how generation time, demographic dispersion (measured by the dispersion of reproductive events across the lifespan), demographic resilience (measured by damping time), within-year variances in vital rates, within-year correlations between vital rates and between-year correlations in vital rates combine to determine average individual fitness of stylized life histories. In a fluctuating environment, we show that there is often a range of cohort generation times at which the fitness is at a maximum. Thus, we expect ‘optimal’ phenotypes in fluctuating environments to differ from optimal phenotypes in constant environments. We show that stochastic growth rates are strongly affected by demographic dispersion, even when deterministic growth rates are not, and that demographic dispersion also determines the response of life-history-specific average fitness to within- and between-year correlations. Serial correlations can have a strong effect on fitness, and, depending on the structure of the life history, may act to increase or decrease fitness. The approach we outline takes a useful first step in developing general life-history theory for non-constant environments.     

STRONG SELECTION GENOME‐WIDE ENHANCES FITNESS TRADE‐OFFS ACROSS ENVIRONMENTS AND EPISODES OF SELECTION

Fitness trade‐offs across episodes of selection and environments influence life‐history evolution and adaptive population divergence. Documenting these trade‐offs remains challenging as selection can vary in magnitude and direction through time and space. Here, we evaluate fitness trade‐offs at the levels of the whole organism and the quantitative trait locus (QTL) in a multiyear field study of Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae), a genetically tractable mustard native to the Rocky Mountains. Reciprocal local adaptation was pronounced for viability, but not for reproductive components of fitness. Instead, local genomes had a fecundity advantage only in the high latitude garden. By estimating realized selection coefficients from individual‐level data on viability and reproductive success and permuting the data to infer significance, we examined the genetic basis of fitness trade‐offs. This analytical approach (Conditional Neutrality‐Antagonistic Pleiotropy, CNAP) identified genetic trade‐offs at a flowering phenology QTL (costs of adaptation) and revealed genetic trade‐offs across fitness components (costs of reproduction). These patterns would not have emerged from traditional ANOVA‐based QTL mapping. Our analytical framework can be applied to other systems to investigate fitness trade‐offs. This task is becoming increasingly important as climate change may alter fitness landscapes, potentially disrupting fitness trade‐offs that took many generations to evolve.     

Dispersal: a central and independent trait in life history

The study of tradeoffs among major life history components (age at maturity, lifespan and reproduction) allowed the development of a quantitative framework to understand how environmental variation shapes patterns of biodiversity among and within species. Because every environment is inherently spatially structured, and in most cases temporally variable, individuals need to move within and among habitats to maximize fitness. Dispersal is often assumed to be tightly integrated into life histories through genetic correlations with other vital traits. This assumption is particularly strong within the context of a fast‐slow continuum of life‐history variation. Such a framework is to date used to explain many aspects of population and community dynamics. Evidence for a consistent and context‐independent integration of dispersal in life histories is, however, weak. We therefore advocate the explicit integration of dispersal into life history theory as a principal axis of variation influencing fitness, that is free to evolve, independently of other life history traits. We synthesize theoretical and empirical evidence on the central role of dispersal and its evolutionary dynamics on the spatial distribution of ecological strategies and its impact on population spread, invasions and coexistence. By applying an optimality framework we show that the inclusion of dispersal as an independent dimension of life histories might substantially change our view on evolutionary trajectories in spatially structured environments. Because changes in the spatial configuration of habitats affect the costs of movement and dispersal, adaptations to reduce these costs will increase phenotypic divergence among and within populations. We outline how this phenotypic heterogeneity is anticipated to further impact population and community dynamics.     

Survival to independence in relation to pre‐fledging development and latitude in songbirds across the globe

Species differ strongly in their life histories, including the probability of survival. Annual adult survival was investigated extensively in the past, whereas juvenile survival, and especially survival to independence, received much less attention. Yet, they are critical for our understanding of population demography and life‐history evolution. We investigated post‐fledging survival to independence (i.e. survival upon leaving the nest until nutritional independence) in 74 species of passerine birds worldwide based on 100 population level estimates extracted from published literature. Our comparative analyses revealed that survival to independence increased with the length of nestling period and relative fledging mass (ratio of fledging mass to adult body mass). At the same time, species with higher nest predation rates had shorter nestling periods and lower relative fledging mass. Thus, we identify an important trade‐off in life history strategies: staying longer in the nest may improve post‐fledging survival due to enhanced flight ability and sensory functions, but at the cost of a longer exposure to nest predators and increased mortality due to nest predation. Additionally, post‐fledging survival to independence did not differ between species from the northern temperate zone vs species from the tropics and southern hemisphere. However, analyses of post‐fledging survival curves suggest that 1) daily survival rates are not constant and improve quickly upon leaving the nest, and 2) species in the tropics and southern hemisphere have higher daily post‐fledging survival rates than northern temperate species. Nevertheless, due to the accumulation of mortality risk during their much longer periods of post‐fledging care, overall survival until independence is comparable across latitudes. Obtaining high‐quality demographic data across latitudes to evaluate the generality of these findings and mechanisms underlying them should be a research priority.     

Contrasting heterozygosity‐fitness correlations across life in a long‐lived seabird

Selection is a central force underlying evolutionary change and can vary in strength and direction, for example across time and space. The fitness consequences of individual genetic diversity have often been investigated by testing for multilocus heterozygosity‐fitness correlations (HFCs), but few studies have been able to assess HFCs across life stages and in both sexes. Here, we test for HFCs using a 26‐year longitudinal individual‐based data set from a large population of a long‐lived seabird (the common tern, Sterna hirundo), where 7,974 chicks and breeders of known age were genotyped at 15 microsatellite loci and sampled for life‐history traits over the complete life cycle. Heterozygosity was not correlated with fledging or post‐fledging prospecting probabilities, but was positively correlated with recruitment probability. For breeders, annual survival was not correlated with heterozygosity, but annual fledgling production was negatively correlated with heterozygosity in males and highest in intermediately heterozygous females. The contrasting HFCs among life stages and sexes indicate differential selective processes and emphasize the importance of assessing fitness consequences of traits over complete life histories.