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1.
    
Species distribution models have great potential to efficiently guide management for threatened species, especially for those that are rare or cryptic. We used MaxEnt to develop a regional‐scale model for the koala Phascolarctos cinereus at a resolution (250 m) that could be used to guide management. To ensure the model was fit for purpose, we placed emphasis on validating the model using independently‐collected field data. We reduced substantial spatial clustering of records in coastal urban areas using a 2‐km spatial filter and by modeling separately two subregions separated by the 500‐m elevational contour. A bias file was prepared that accounted for variable survey effort. Frequency of wildfire, soil type, floristics and elevation had the highest relative contribution to the model, while a number of other variables made minor contributions. The model was effective in discriminating different habitat suitability classes when compared with koala records not used in modeling. We validated the MaxEnt model at 65 ground‐truth sites using independent data on koala occupancy (acoustic sampling) and habitat quality (browse tree availability). Koala bellows (n = 276) were analyzed in an occupancy modeling framework, while site habitat quality was indexed based on browse trees. Field validation demonstrated a linear increase in koala occupancy with higher modeled habitat suitability at ground‐truth sites. Similarly, a site habitat quality index at ground‐truth sites was correlated positively with modeled habitat suitability. The MaxEnt model provided a better fit to estimated koala occupancy than the site‐based habitat quality index, probably because many variables were considered simultaneously by the model rather than just browse species. The positive relationship of the model with both site occupancy and habitat quality indicates that the model is fit for application at relevant management scales. Field‐validated models of similar resolution would assist in guiding management of conservation‐dependent species.  相似文献   

2.
[目的] 明确世界自然保护联盟公布的“世界100种恶性外来入侵物种”在我国大陆发生分布现状,为我国制定外来入侵物种管控对象和分级管理对策提供依据。[方法] 基于在线数据库系统、文献报道以及外来入侵物种本底调查结果,采用分类统计方法,对物种的分类地位、原产地、在我国的入侵状态及其所在的生态系统进行分析。[结果] 世界100种恶性外来入侵物种已有82种在我国发生分布,包括本地种33种、外来入侵种32种、外来非入侵种16种,以及未明确入侵状态1种。其中,32种外来入侵种包括陆生无脊椎动物8种、哺乳动物2种、鱼类2种、两栖动物1种、爬行动物1种、水生无脊椎动物2种、陆生植物9种、水生植物4种、真菌1种、卵菌1种和病毒1种。以上物种主要分布在东南沿海地区和西南地区,而较少分布在西北地区和东北地区;约75%物种分布在农田、城镇、森林和湿地4类生态系统。[结论] 建议外来入侵物种管理部门重点关注尚未在国内发生分布的18种潜在外来入侵物种,并列入国家外来入侵物种相关管理对象,严防其传入与扩散;严密监控国内已发生且具有潜在危险的外来物种,防止其向可能入侵的生态系统边缘扩散;继续对在国内已发生的外来入侵种实施区域性分级控制管理措施。  相似文献   

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Invasive alien plants (IAP) are a threat to biodiversity worldwide. Understanding and anticipating invasions allow for more efficient management. In this regard, predicting potential invasion risks by IAPs is essential to support conservation planning into areas of high conservation value (AHCV) such as sites exhibiting exceptional botanical richness, assemblage of rare, and threatened and/or endemic plant species. Here, we identified AHCV in Georgia, a country showing high plant richness, and assessed the susceptibility of these areas to colonization by IAPs under present and future climatic conditions. We used actual protected areas and areas of high plant endemism (identified using occurrences of 114 Georgian endemic plant species) as proxies for AHCV. Then, we assessed present and future potential distribution of 27 IAPs using species distribution models under four climate change scenarios and stacked single‐species potential distribution into a consensus map representing IAPs richness. We evaluated present and future invasion risks in AHCV using IAPs richness as a metric of susceptibility. We show that the actual protected areas cover only 9.4% of the areas of high plant endemism in Georgia. IAPs are presently located at lower elevations around the large urban centers and in western Georgia. We predict a shift of IAPs toward eastern Georgia and higher altitudes and an increased susceptibility of AHCV to IAPs under future climate change. Our study provides a good baseline for decision makers and stakeholders on where and how resources should be invested in the most efficient way to protect Georgia's high plant richness from IAPs.  相似文献   

5.
自然保护区在生物多样性保护中起着关键作用,然而也面临外来物种入侵等诸多压力。基于72个已调查国家级自然保护区外来入侵植物数据,重点分析生态环境部发布的四批外来入侵物种名单中已有分布的35种外来入侵植物分布格局及其影响因素。研究发现72个国家级自然保护区平均记录有(7.78±0.47)种外来入侵植物,MaxEnt模型预测结果表明98.69%的国家级自然保护区面临外来植物入侵风险。低纬度地区(8.07±0.73)和中纬度地区(9.64±0.56)国家级自然保护区外来入侵植物数量显著高于高纬度地区(4.53±0.88),且不同类型国家级自然保护区外来入侵植物差异不显著。温度和降雨量是影响外来入侵植物在自然保护区分布的关键因素,且影响不同生活型外来入侵植物分布格局的关键因素不同:温度对一年生草本、藤本和灌木的分布解释量极为显著,保护区建立时间、温度、降雨量和海拔共同影响多年生草本植物在国家级自然保护区的分布。研究结果表明国家级自然保护区外来入侵植物调查与监测还存在很大的空白,未来需要进一步加强自然保护区外来入侵植物研究,并提升外来入侵植物的监管能力。  相似文献   

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AimInvasive alien species (IAS) threaten ecosystems and humans worldwide, and future climate change may accelerate the expansion of IAS. Predicting the suitable areas of IAS can prevent their further expansion. Ageratina adenophora is an invasive weed over 30 countries in tropical and subtropical regions. However, the potential suitable areas of A. adenophora remain unclear along with its response to climate change. This study explored and mapped the current and future potential suitable areas of Ageratina adenophora.LocationGlobal.TaxaAsteraceae A. adenophora (Spreng.) R.M.King & H.Rob. Commonly known as Crofton weed.MethodsBased on A. adenophora occurrence data and climate data, we predicted its suitable areas of this weed under current and future (four RCPs in 2050 and 2070) by MaxEnt model. We used ArcGIS 10.4 to explore the potential suitable area distribution characteristics of this weed and the “ecospat” package in R to analyze its altitudinal distribution changes.ResultsThe area under the curve (AUC) value (>0.9) and true skill statistics (TSS) value (>0.8) indicated excelled model performance. Among environment factors, mean temperature of coldest quarter contributed most to the model. Globally, the suitable areas for A. adenophora invasion decreased under climate change scenarios, although regional increases were observed, including in six biodiversity hotspot regions. The potential suitable areas of A. adenophora under climate change would expand in regions with higher elevation (3,000–3,500 m).Main conclusionsMean temperature of coldest quarter was the most important variable influencing the potential suitable area of A. Adenophora. Under the background of a warming climate, the potential suitable area of A. adenophora will shrink globally but increase in six biodiversity hotspot regions. The potential suitable area of Aadenophora would expand at higher elevation (3,000–3,500 m) under climate change. Mountain ecosystems are of special concern as they are rich in biodiversity and sensitive to climate change, and increasing human activities provide more opportunities for IAS invasion.  相似文献   

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北京地区外来入侵植物分布特征及其影响因素   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4       下载免费PDF全文
为研究北京地区入侵植物扩散与分布规律,探讨影响入侵植物分布的驱动因子,对北京郊区12区县入侵植物分布情况进行了实地调查,分析了北京地区入侵植物的水平分布格局和其随海拔梯度的变化规律,并对影响入侵植物种数和分布的各类因子进行了相关分析。结果表明:北京地区共有外来入侵植物47种,不同区县入侵植物物种数量差别较大,通州、门头沟等外来入侵植物分布较多;并形成3个明显的集中分布区域。入侵植物在不同海拔高度都有分布,其数量随海拔梯度的变化规律表现出线形关系,低海拔区域100—900 m是外来入侵植物分布数量较多的海拔范围。通过对不同影响因子与入侵植物物种多度相关分析表明,进口额、一级公路密度与外来入侵植物数量显著负相关,而与林木覆盖率显著正相关,这些结论与入侵植物分布与扩散一般规律相悖,这与北京地区森林起源与以及人类活动对于植被干扰多样性和不确定性形成的景观破碎化有关,多样性干扰为更多植物入侵提供了可能性。入侵植物分布格局和多样性人为活动的干扰使其防控难度加大。  相似文献   

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Aim The method used to generate hypotheses about species distributions, in addition to spatial scale, may affect the biodiversity patterns that are then observed. We compared the performance of range maps and MaxEnt species distribution models at different spatial resolutions by examining the degree of similarity between predicted species richness and composition against observed values from well‐surveyed cells (WSCs). Location Mexico. Methods We estimated amphibian richness distributions at five spatial resolutions (from 0.083° to 2°) by overlaying 370 individual range maps or MaxEnt predictions, comparing the similarity of the spatial patterns and correlating predicted values with the observed values for WSCs. Additionally, we looked at species composition and assessed commission and omission errors associated with each method. Results MaxEnt predictions reveal greater geographic differences in richness between species rich and species poor regions than the range maps did at the five resolutions assessed. Correlations between species richness values estimated by either of the two procedures and the observed values from the WSCs increased with decreasing resolution. The slopes of the regressions between the predicted and observed values indicate that MaxEnt overpredicts observed species richness at all of the resolutions used, while range maps underpredict them, except at the finest resolution. Prediction errors did not vary significantly between methods at any resolution and tended to decrease with decreasing resolution. The accuracy of both procedures was clearly different when commission and omission errors were examined separately. Main conclusions Despite the congruent increase in the geographic richness patterns obtained from both procedures as resolution decreases, the maps created with these methods cannot be used interchangeably because of notable differences in the species compositions they report.  相似文献   

9.
    
Niche dynamics of invasive alien plants (IAPs) play pivotal roles in biological invasion. Ageratina adenophora—one of the most aggressive IAPs in China and some parts of the world—poses severe ecological and socioeconomic threats. However, the spatiotemporal niche dynamics of A. adenophora in China remain unknown, which we aimed to elucidate in the present study. China, Mexico; using a unifying framework, we reconstructed the climate niche dynamics of A. adenophora and applied the optimal MaxEnt model to predict its potential geographical distribution in China. Furthermore, we compared the heterogeneity of A. adenophora niche between Mexico (native) and China (invasive). We observed a low niche overlap between Mexico (native) and China (invasive). Specifically, the niche of A. adenophora in China has distinctly expanded compared to that in Mexico, enhancing the invasion risk of this IAP in the former country. In fact, the climatic niche of A. adenophora in Mexico is a subset of that in China. The potential geographical distribution of A. adenophora is concentrated in the tropical and subtropical zones of Southwest China, and its geographical distribution pattern in China is shaped by the combination of precipitation and temperature variables. The niche dynamics of A. adenophora follow the hypothesis of niche shift and conservatism. The present work provides a unifying framework for studies on the niche dynamics of other IAPs worldwide.  相似文献   

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美国对入侵种的管理对策   总被引:53,自引:0,他引:53  
外来种入侵是产生当前世界生物多样性危机的重要原因之一。目前外来种入侵问题已经引起人们的普遍关注。1999年2月美国联邦政府发布总统令,号召联邦政府机构执行人员防止外来入侵种所造成的严重环境威胁,指示有关职能部门行使职权阻止引入入侵种并且恢复本地种。总统令指示建立一个入侵物种理事会,并就理事会、联邦机构的职责做了相应界定。美国农业部等部门支持的入侵植物管理国家策略项目,提出了针对入侵种的三项国家目标一入侵种的预防、控制和本地种的恢复。国家管理策略的制定不同层次的人们提供了合作、教育和研究的机遇。美国政府部门以及有关社会团体已经就外来种入侵危害防范积极展开行动,包括制定标准防止入侵种进入,控制、根除入侵种,向民众进行有关外来种入侵的教育,增加财政年度预算等等。  相似文献   

13.
    
  1. Invasive species are one of the most severe threats to biodiversity, and an ability to predict the extent of potential invasions can help conservation strategies. Species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely used to project the potential range of invasive species. These models assume that species retain their niche properties during invasion (niche conservatism), although this assumption is seldom verified.
  2. We gathered occurrence records for the crayfish Procambarus clarkii from the U.S.A. and Mexico (native + invasive ranges) and from the Iberian Peninsula (invasive) to test for niche conservatism across continents using niche overlap metrics (Schoener's D). To test for differences in the climate space occupied by the species on the different continents, we performed two principal component analyses (PCAs) on the environmental data extracted from occurrence records: first, separately for each occurrence data set (i.e. each continent) and secondly, using the pooled data. Subsequently, we projected the model to South America, where this species has the potential to become invasive.
  3. Schoener's D showed high overlap (0.68) between the two regions (the Americas and Iberia), and there was no difference between the regions in both PCAs. The crayfish has conserved its niche across continents, and therefore, our model projection to South America may accurately demonstrate where invasion is most likely to occur.
  4. Large parts of South America are apparently suitable, mainly Argentina, Chile, Paraguay, Uruguay and southern Brazil. This result is of great concern since this invasive species can spread quickly in suitable areas. Stronger laws and regulations should be made to protect native biodiversity and agricultural land. Our approach could be replicated for the study of invasions by other species where extensive data on the potentially invaded areas are available.
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14.
    
Prioritizing potential invasive alien species, introduction pathways, and likely places susceptible to biological invasions is collectively critical for developing the targeting of management strategies at pre-border, border, and post-border. A framework for prioritizing the invasion management that considered all these elements in combination is lacking, particularly in the context of potential coinvasion scenarios of multispecies. Here, for the first time, we have constructed a coupling framework of biological invasions to evaluate and prioritize multiple invasion risks of 35 invasive alien mealybugs (IAMs) that posed a significant threat to the agri-horticultural crops in China. We found that the imported tropical fruits from free trade areas of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to entry ports of southern China were the primary introduction pathway for IAMs, vectored on various fruit commodities. There was also a high probability for cointroductions of potential multi-IAMs with a single imported tropical fruit. The potential distribution of such IAMs with dissimilar net relatedness were mainly located in southern China. These distributions, however, are likely to expand to the higher latitudes of northern China under future climate and land use/land cover changes. Temperature and anthropogenic factors were both independently and collectively determining factors for the diversity and distribution patterns of imported IAMs under near-current climate conditions. Our findings highlight that these multiple components of global change have and will continue to facilitate the introduction and establishment risks of IAMs in southern China, as well as the spread risk into northern China. Additionally, our findings, for the first time, demonstrated management prioritization across the continuous invasion stages of 35 IAMs in China, and provide additional insights into the development of targeting of their biosecurity and management decisions.  相似文献   

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  1. The eastern grey squirrel (hereafter ‘grey squirrel’) is considered one of the most damaging invasive alien species in Europe, with negative effects on native ecosystems. Despite it being widely perceived as a significant predator of bird eggs and chicks and as a competitor for nest sites, evaluation of the grey squirrel’s impact on European bird populations has been hindered by limited empirical data.
  2. The aim was to review the incidence of grey squirrels as nest predators of and nest-site competitors with European birds, and to use this information to identify species at potential risk of negative effects from within the grey squirrel’s expanding range in continental Europe.
  3. A comprehensive literature review was conducted, and the data were used alongside additional new data, to assess nest predation and competition by grey squirrels in their current European range. Bird species were grouped by nest-site type, which was used to predict the impact on similar species groups in regions of continental Europe predicted to be colonised by grey squirrels in the current century.
  4. Camera-monitoring and field evidence for 12 bird species and 12420 nests in Britain showed that grey squirrels rarely depredated eggs or chicks, affecting just 0.5% of nests. Nest-site competition was also minor, with grey squirrels occupying 0.8% of 122 small tree cavities and 14% of 57 larger cavities. At least 69 bird species in continental Europe could be exposed to potential nest predation or competition from expanding grey squirrel populations within the current century, but population-level effects currently appear to be unlikely.
  5. Current evidence shows that grey squirrels are unlikely to be significant predators of or competitors with nesting birds in their present or projected range in Europe. However, further studies of more species in different regions would be valuable, particularly in urban and suburban habitats.
  相似文献   

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  1. Rising human activity in Antarctica, combined with continued warming of the polar climate, means the risk of non‐native terrestrial species colonising and establishing in its biodiversity‐ and nutrient‐poor ecosystems is increasing.
  2. Of the five non‐native invertebrate species currently in terrestrial Antarctica, the flightless midge Eretmoptera murphyi (Schaeffer, The Museum of the Brooklyn Institute of Arts and Sciences 2:90–94, 1914) is perhaps the most persistent insect invader. Accidentally introduced to Signy Island (60°S) in the 1960s from sub‐Antarctic South Georgia (54°S), E. murphyi has steadily increased its distribution, however, its status has not been reassessed for a decade.
  3. Here, we update the distribution of E. murphyi on Signy, specifically assessing whether footpaths to regularly visited research sites represent dispersal corridors.
  4. Our findings show that both the abundance and range of E. murphyi have increased significantly since 2009, particularly along paths leading away from the original introduction site, and that the species is now on the cusp of moving into new valley systems.
  5. We identify a moderate association with soil/substrate and vegetation types and build Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) models to predict areas of the island that may be at highest risk of future colonisation.
  6. As a detritivore with no competitors or predators, E. murphyi may have a major impact. For example, accelerating nutrient cycling which may have wider impacts on all levels of biodiversity.
  7. This study highlights the need for an assessment of current biosecurity protocols applied within the Antarctic Treaty system, as well as the need for systematic regular monitoring of introduced and invasive species in Antarctica.
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17.
    
The continuous decline of biodiversity is determined by the complex and joint effects of multiple environmental drivers. Still, a large part of past global change studies reporting and explaining biodiversity trends have focused on a single driver. Therefore, we are often unable to attribute biodiversity changes to different drivers, since a multivariable design is required to disentangle joint effects and interactions. In this work, we used a meta‐regression within a Bayesian framework to analyze 843 time series of population abundance from 17 European amphibian and reptile species over the last 45 years. We investigated the relative effects of climate change, alien species, habitat availability, and habitat change in driving trends of population abundance over time, and evaluated how the importance of these factors differs across species. A large number of populations (54%) declined, but differences between species were strong, with some species showing positive trends. Populations declined more often in areas with a high number of alien species, and in areas where climate change has caused loss of suitability. Habitat features showed small variation over the last 25 years, with an average loss of suitable habitat of 0.1%/year per population. Still, a strong interaction between habitat availability and the richness of alien species indicated that the negative impact of alien species was particularly strong for populations living in landscapes with less suitable habitat. Furthermore, when excluding the two commonest species, habitat loss was the main correlate of negative population trends for the remaining species. By analyzing trends for multiple species across a broad spatial scale, we identify alien species, climate change, and habitat changes as the major drivers of European amphibian and reptile decline.  相似文献   

18.
We use observed patterns of species richness and composition of ant communities along a 1000 mm rainfall gradient in northern Australian savanna to assess the accuracy of species richness and turnover predictions derived from stacked species distribution models (S‐SDMs) and constrained by macroecological models (MEMs). We systematically sampled ants at 15 sites at 50 km intervals along the rainfall gradient in 2012 and 2013. Using the observed data, we created MEMs of species richness, composition and turnover. We built distribution models for 135 of the observed species using data from museum collections and online databases. We compared two approaches of stacking SDMs and three modelling algorithms to identify the most accurate way of predicting richness and composition. We then applied the same beta diversity metrics to compare the observed versus predicted patterns. Stacked SDMs consistently over‐predicted local species richness, and there was a mismatch between the observed pattern of richness estimated from the MEM, and the pattern predicted by S‐SDMs. The most accurate richness and turnover predictions occurred when the stacked models were rank‐ordered by their habitat suitability and constrained by the observed MEM richness predictions. In contrast with species richness, the predictions obtained by the MEM of community similarity, composition and turnover matched those predicted by the S‐SDMs. S‐SDMs regulated by MEMs may therefore be a useful tool in predicting compositional patterns despite being unreliable estimators of species richness. Our results highlight that the choice of species distribution model, the stacking method used, and underlying macroecological patterns all influence the accuracy of community assembly predictions derived from S‐SDMS.  相似文献   

19.
A large amount of data for inconspicuous taxa is stored in natural history collections; however, this information is often neglected for biodiversity patterns studies. Here, we evaluate the performance of direct interpolation of museum collections data, equivalent to the traditional approach used in bryophyte conservation planning, and stacked species distribution models (S‐SDMs) to produce reliable reconstructions of species richness patterns, given that differences between these methods have been insufficiently evaluated for inconspicuous taxa. Our objective was to contrast if species distribution models produce better inferences of diversity richness than simply selecting areas with the higher species numbers. As model species, we selected Iberian species of the genus Grimmia (Bryophyta), and we used four well‐collected areas to compare and validate the following models: 1) four Maxent richness models, each generated without the data from one of the four areas, and a reference model created using all of the data and 2) four richness models obtained through direct spatial interpolation, each generated without the data from one area, and a reference model created with all of the data. The correlations between the partial and reference Maxent models were higher in all cases (0.45 to 0.99), whereas the correlations between the spatial interpolation models were negative and weak (−0.3 to −0.06). Our results demonstrate for the first time that S‐SDMs offer a useful tool for identifying detailed richness patterns for inconspicuous taxa such as bryophytes and improving incomplete distributions by assessing the potential richness of under‐surveyed areas, filling major gaps in the available data. In addition, the proposed strategy would enhance the value of the vast number of specimens housed in biological collections.  相似文献   

20.
苏州地区外来入侵植物组成及分布   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
为了解苏州外来入侵植物的种类组成及分布概况,对苏州地区6个县市(包括常熟、昆山、苏州、太仓、吴江和张家港)26个样点内不同生境中的外来入侵植物进行了调查分析.调查结果显示:每个样点有外来人侵植物7~25种,平均每个样点有17.9种.在26个样点中观察到外来入侵植物57种,隶属于19科45属;其中菊科(Compositae)种类最多(23种),占总种数的40.4%;豆科(Leguminosae)、玄参科(Scrophulariaceae)、禾本科(Poaceae)、伞形科(Apiaceae)、苋科(Amaranthaceae)和旋花科(Convolvulaceae)种类也较多.原产于北美洲和欧洲的种类分别有20和12种,分别占总种数的35.1%和21.0%;还有17种原产于美洲的其他区域,少数种类原产于非洲、西亚和地中海地区.在57种外来入侵植物中,草本植物有55种,非多年生植物有44种,分别占总种数的96.5%和77.2%.有18种的频度超过50%,其中加拿大一枝黄花(Solidago canadensis L.)和一年蓬[Erigeron annuus (L.) Pers.]的频度最高,分别达到96.15%和92.31%,且多度等级均属于极多级(Soc);空心莲子草[ Ahernanthera philoxeroides( Mart.) Griseb.]和白车轴草(Trifolium repens L.)的频度也均在80%以上,且多度等级也属于极多级(Soc).调查结果表明:苏州地区外来植物入侵现象比较严重.  相似文献   

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