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1.
Species across the planet are shifting their ranges to track suitable climate conditions in response to climate change. Given that protected areas have higher quality habitat and often harbor higher levels of biodiversity compared to unprotected lands, it is often assumed that protected areas can serve as steppingstones for species undergoing climate-induced range shifts. However, there are several factors that may impede successful range shifts among protected areas, including the distance that must be traveled, unfavorable human land uses and climate conditions along potential movement routes, and lack of analogous climates. Through a species-agnostic lens, we evaluate these factors across the global terrestrial protected area network as measures of climate connectivity, which is defined as the ability of a landscape to facilitate or impede climate-induced movement. We found that over half of protected land area and two-thirds of the number of protected units across the globe are at risk of climate connectivity failure, casting doubt on whether many species can successfully undergo climate-induced range shifts among protected areas. Consequently, protected areas are unlikely to serve as steppingstones for a large number of species under a warming climate. As species disappear from protected areas without commensurate immigration of species suited to the emerging climate (due to climate connectivity failure), many protected areas may be left with a depauperate suite of species under climate change. Our findings are highly relevant given recent pledges to conserve 30% of the planet by 2030 (30 × 30), underscore the need for innovative land management strategies that allow for species range shifts, and suggest that assisted colonization may be necessary to promote species that are adapted to the emerging climate.  相似文献   

2.
Incorporating connectivity into the design of marine protected areas (MPAs) has met with conceptual, theoretical, and practical challenges, which include: 1) the need to consider connectivity for multiple species with different dispersal abilities, and 2) the role played by variable habitat quality in determining the spatial patterns of connectivity. We propose an innovative approach, combining biophysical modeling with a routinely‐used tool for marine‐reserve design (Marxan), to address both challenges by using ecologically‐informed connectivity parameters. We showed how functional demographic connectivity for four candidate reef‐associated species with varying dispersal abilities and a suite of connectivity metrics weighted by habitat quality can be used to set conservation objectives and inform MPA placement. Overall, the strength of dispersal barriers varied across modeled species and, also across species, we found a lack of spatial concordance of reefs that were high‐quality sources, self‐persistent, and stepping‐stones. Including spatially‐heterogeneous habitat quality made a considerable difference to connectivity patterns, significantly reducing the potential reproductive output from many reefs. We also found that caution is needed in combining connectivity data from modeled species into multi‐species matrices, which do not perform reliably as surrogates for all connectivity metrics of individual species. We then showed that restricting the habitat available for conservation has an inequitable impact on different connectivity objectives and species, with greatest impact on betweenness centrality and long‐distance dispersers. We used Brazilian coral reefs as a case study but our approach is applicable to both marine and terrestrial conservation planning, and offers a holistic way to design functionally‐connected reserves to tackle the complex issues relevant to planning for persistence.  相似文献   

3.
Climate change is likely to alter population connectivity, particularly for species associated with higher elevation environments. The goal of this study is to predict the potential effects of future climate change on population connectivity and genetic diversity of American marten populations across a 30.2 million hectare region of the in the US northern Rocky Mountains. We use a landscape resistance model validated from empirical landscape genetics modeling to predict the current and expected future extent and fragmentation of American marten dispersal habitat under five climate change scenarios, corresponding to climatic warming of between 0.7 and 3.3 °C, consistent with expected climate change by year 2080. We predict the regions of the current and future landscapes where gene flow is expected to be governed by isolation by distance and the regions where population fragmentation is expected to limit gene flow. Finally, we predict changes in the strength and location of predicted movement corridors, fracture zones and the location of dispersal barriers across the study area in each scenario. We found that under the current climate, gene flow is predicted to be limited primarily by distance (isolation), and landscape structure does not significantly limit gene flow, resulting in very high genetic diversity over most of the study area. Projected climatic warming substantially reduces the extent and increases the fragmentation of marten populations in the western and northwestern parts of the study area. In contrast, climate change is not predicted to fragment the extensive higher elevation mountain massifs in central Idaho, the northern U.S. continental divide, and Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. In addition, we show locations in the study area that are important corridors in the current landscape that remain intact across the climate change scenarios.  相似文献   

4.
Quantifying the effects of landscape change on population connectivity is compounded by uncertainties about population size and distribution and a limited understanding of dispersal ability for most species. In addition, the effects of anthropogenic landscape change and sensitivity to regional climatic conditions interact to strongly affect habitat fragmentation and loss. To further develop conservation theory and to understand the interplay between all of these factors, we simulated habitat fragmentation and loss across the Western United States for several hypothetical species associated with four biome types, and a range of habitat requirements and dispersal abilities. We found dispersal ability and population size of the focal species to be equally sensitive to habitat extent, while dispersal ability is more sensitive to habitat fragmentation. There were also strong critical threshold effects where habitat connectivity decreased disproportionately to decreases in life-history traits making these species near these thresholds more sensitive to changes in habitat loss and fragmentation. Overall, grassland and forest associated species are also most at risk from habitat loss and fragmentation driven by human related land-use. These two largest biome types were most sensitive at large contiguous patch sizes which is often considered most important for metapopulation viability and biodiversity conservation. Hypothetical simulation studies such as this can be of great value to scientists in further conceptualizing and developing conservation theory, and evaluating spatially-explicit scenarios of habitat connectivity. Our results are available for download in a web-based interactive mapping prototype useful for accessing the results of this study.  相似文献   

5.
Habitat loss and fragmentation are widely acknowledged as the main driver of the decline of giant panda populations. The Chinese government has made great efforts to protect this charming species and has made remarkable achievements, such as population growth and habitat expansion. However, habitat fragmentation has not been reversed. Protecting giant pandas in a large spatial extent needs to identify core habitat patches and corridors connecting them. This study used an equal‐sampling multiscale random forest habitat model to predict a habitat suitability map for the giant panda. Then, we applied the resistant kernel method and factorial least‐cost path analysis to identify core habitats connected by panda dispersal and corridors among panda occurrences, respectively. Finally, we evaluated the effectiveness of current protected areas in representing core habitats and corridors. Our results showed high scale dependence of giant panda habitat selection. Giant pandas strongly respond to bamboo percentage and elevation at a relatively fine scale (1 km), whereas they respond to anthropogenic factors at a coarse scale (≥2 km). Dispersal ability has significant effects on core habitats extent and population fragmentation evaluation. Under medium and high dispersal ability scenarios (12,000 and 20,000 cost units), most giant panda habitats in the Qionglai mountain are predicted to be well connected by dispersal. The proportion of core habitats covered by protected areas varied between 38% and 43% under different dispersal ability scenarios, highlighting significant gaps in the protected area network. Similarly, only 43% of corridors that connect giant panda occurrences were protected. Our results can provide crucial information for conservation managers to develop wise strategies to safeguard the long‐term viability of the giant panda population.  相似文献   

6.
Global efforts to halt biodiversity loss mandate the establishment of protected areas. In the face of habitat loss and climate uncertainty, large-scale networks of protected areas connected by corridors are needed to increase the dispersal and persistence potential of biota. For example, the recent European Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 defines clear targets for identifying, establishing and integrating ecological corridors, as part of a Trans-European Nature Network. Here, we examined whether rivers could serve as such corridors, facilitating landscape connectivity (i.e. extent to which landscape facilitates or impedes species movement, exchange of genes, natal dispersal and metapopulation dynamics) among protected areas hosted within different countries in the Balkan Peninsula, southeastern Europe. To quantitatively address this question, we calculated the proportion of the river network enclosed within a protected area per country to detect patterns of protection coverage and explored the degree to which spatial connections between 1878 protected areas are supported by the river network. Acknowledging that dams hinder instream continuity, we further quantified potential loss of connections between protected areas caused by the existence of already implemented or planned dam projects upon critical river habitats of endangered fish species. Our results highlight that Balkan rivers have great potential in providing the spatial connections needed to establish landscape connectivity between most of protected areas in the region. Still, heedless hydropower growth and dissimilarities in river protection between neighboring countries remain key challenges for the evolution of a relative framework. Transnational cooperation and systematic planning of infrastructure development could be the only efficient steps towards supporting the establishment of a river-based network to reconstruct connectivity between protected areas and meet biodiversity goals.  相似文献   

7.
Losses of both habitat area and connectivity have been identified as important drivers of species richness declines, but little theoretical and empirical work exists that addresses the effect of fragmentation on relative commonness of highly mobile species such as pollinating insects. With a large dataset of wild bee and butterfly abundances collected across Europe, we first tested the effect of habitat area and connectivity on evenness in pollinator communities using a large array of indexes that give different weight to dominance and rarity. Second, we tested if traits related to mobility and diet breadth could explain the observed evenness patterns. We found a clear negative effect of area and a weaker, but positive effect of connectivity on evenness. Communities in small habitat fragments were mainly composed of mobile and generalist species. The higher evenness in small fragments could thereby be generated by highly mobile species that maintain local populations with frequent inter‐fragment movements. Trait analysis suggested an increasing importance of dispersal over local recruitment, as we move from large to small fragments and from less to more connected fragments. Species richness and evenness were negatively correlated indicating that the two variables responded differently to habitat area and connectivity, although the mechanisms underlying the observed patterns are difficult to isolate. Even though habitat area and connectivity often decrease simultaneously due to habitat fragmentation, an interesting practical implication of the contrasting effect of the two variables is that the resulting community composition will depend on the relative strength of these two processes.  相似文献   

8.
基于生境斑块的滇金丝猴景观连接度分析   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
基于生境斑块,结合最小费用距离并运用图论法对滇金丝猴分布区进行栖息地连接度分析,研究利用猴群的现实分布结合Logistic回归模型确定了景观功能连接的最佳距离阈值,对于功能畅通的组分,以景观指数BC定量识别出作为"踏脚石"的优先保护区域;对于功能不连接的组分,绘制出最小费用路径,确定了该路径中优先恢复区域。结果表明:最佳的最小费用距离阈值为1400,该阈值下猴群主要存在于5个组分中,所有组分中猴群间的连接度优劣排序为组分3组分1组分5组分4,龙马山猴群(G15)没有"踏脚石"斑块使其与同一组分内的其他猴群相连接,应考虑优先恢复该区域的植被,研究成果对于该物种的保护和其他濒危物种的类似研究具有较强的参考价值和借鉴意义。  相似文献   

9.

Aim

Rarity and geographic aspects of species distributions mediate their vulnerability to global change. We explore the relationships between species rarity and geography and their exposure to climate and land use change in a biodiversity hotspot.

Location

California, USA.

Taxa

One hundred and six terrestrial plants.

Methods

We estimated four rarity traits: range size, niche breadth, number of habitat patches, and patch isolation; and three geographic traits: mean elevation, topographic heterogeneity, and distance to coast. We used species distribution models to measure species exposure—predicted change in continuous habitat suitability within currently occupied habitat—under climate and land use change scenarios. Using regression models, decision-tree models and variance partitioning, we assessed the relationships between species rarity, geography, and exposure to climate and land use change.

Results

Rarity, geography and greenhouse gas emissions scenario explained >35% of variance in climate change exposure and >61% for land use change exposure. While rarity traits (range size and number of habitat patches) were most important for explaining species exposure to climate change, geographic traits (elevation and topographic heterogeneity) were more strongly associated with species' exposure to land use change.

Main conclusions

Species with restricted range sizes and low topographic heterogeneity across their distributions were predicted to be the most exposed to climate change, while species at low elevations were the most exposed to habitat loss via land use change. However, even some broadly distributed species were projected to lose >70% of their currently suitable habitat due to climate and land use change if they are in geographically vulnerable areas, emphasizing the need to consider both species rarity traits and geography in vulnerability assessments.  相似文献   

10.
Genetic diversity is crucial for species’ maintenance and persistence, yet is often overlooked in conservation studies. Species diversity is more often reported due to practical constraints, but it is unknown if these measures of diversity are correlated. In marine invertebrates, adults are often sessile or sedentary and populations exchange genes via dispersal of gametes and larvae. Species with a larval period are expected to have more connected populations than those without larval dispersal. We assessed the relationship between measures of species and genetic diversity, and between dispersal ability and connectivity. We compiled data on genetic patterns and life history traits in nine species across five phyla. Sampling sites spanned 600 km in the northwest Mediterranean Sea and focused on a 50‐km area near Marseilles, France. Comparative population genetic approaches yielded three main results. (i) Species without larvae showed higher levels of genetic structure than species with free‐living larvae, but the role of larval type (lecithotrophic or planktotrophic) was negligible. (ii) A narrow area around Marseilles, subject to offshore advection, limited genetic connectivity in most species. (iii) We identified sites with significant positive contributions to overall genetic diversity across all species, corresponding with areas near low human population densities. In contrast, high levels of human activity corresponded with a negative contribution to overall genetic diversity. Genetic diversity within species was positively and significantly linearly related to local species diversity. Our study suggests that local contribution to overall genetic diversity should be taken into account for future conservation strategies.  相似文献   

11.
Deforestation causes habitat loss, fragmentation, degradation, and can ultimately cause extinction of the remnant species. Tropical montane birds face these threats with the added natural vulnerability of narrower elevational ranges and higher specialization than lowland species. Recent studies assess the impact of present and future global climate change on species’ ranges, but only a few of these evaluate the potentially confounding effect of lowland deforestation on species elevational distributions. In the Western Andes of Colombia, an important biodiversity hotspot, we evaluated the effects of deforestation on the elevational ranges of montane birds along altitudinal transects. Using point counts and mist-nets, we surveyed six altitudinal transects spanning 2200 to 2800m. Three transects were forested from 2200 to 2800m, and three were partially deforested with forest cover only above 2400m. We compared abundance-weighted mean elevation, minimum elevation, and elevational range width. In addition to analysing the effect of deforestation on 134 species, we tested its impact within trophic guilds and habitat preference groups. Abundance-weighted mean and minimum elevations were not significantly different between forested and partially deforested transects. Range width was marginally different: as expected, ranges were larger in forested transects. Species in different trophic guilds and habitat preference categories showed different trends. These results suggest that deforestation may affect species’ elevational ranges, even within the forest that remains. Climate change will likely exacerbate harmful impacts of deforestation on species’ elevational distributions. Future conservation strategies need to account for this by protecting connected forest tracts across a wide range of elevations.  相似文献   

12.
Genetic, demographic, and environmental processes affect natural populations synergistically, and understanding their interplay is crucial for the conservation of biodiversity. Stream fishes in metapopulations are particularly sensitive to habitat fragmentation because persistence depends on dispersal and colonization of new habitat but dispersal is constrained to stream networks. Great Plains streams are increasingly fragmented by water diversion and climate change, threatening connectivity of fish populations in this ecosystem. We used seven microsatellite loci to describe population and landscape genetic patterns across 614 individuals from 12 remaining populations of Arkansas darter (Etheostoma cragini) in Colorado, a candidate species for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. We found small effective population sizes, low levels of genetic diversity within populations, and high levels of genetic structure, especially among basins. Both at- and between-site landscape features were associated with genetic diversity and connectivity, respectively. Available stream habitat and amount of continuous wetted area were positively associated with genetic diversity within a site, while stream distance and intermittency were the best predictors of genetic divergence among sites. We found little genetic contribution from historic supplementation efforts, and we provide a set of management recommendations for this species that incorporate a conservation genetics perspective.  相似文献   

13.
Species distribution patterns have been explained by Hutchinson's niche theory, metapopulation theory and source-sink theory. Empirical verification of this framework, however, remains surprisingly scant. In this paper, we test the hypothesis that landscape characteristics (patch size and connectivity), aerial dispersal ability and niche breadth interact in explaining distribution patterns of 29 spider species inhabiting fragmented grey dunes. Distribution patterns only depended on aerial dispersal potential, and the interaction between patch connectivity and area. Niche breadth, measured as the degree of habitat specialisation in the total coastal dune system, did not contribute to the observed distribution patterns. Additional variation in patch occupancy frequency was strongly species-dependent and was determined by different responses to the degree of patch connectivity for ballooning dispersal. Results from this study suggest that dispersal ability largely affects our perception of a species "fundamental niche", and that source-sink and metapopulation dynamics may have a major impact on the distribution of species. From a conservation point of view, specialised (and hence intrinsically rare) species can be predicted to become rarer if fragmentation increases and connectivity decreases. This study is, to our knowledge, one of the few linking species distribution (and not patch occupancy, species diversity or richness) to landscape ecological (patch connectivity and area) and auto-ecological (niche breadth, dispersal potential) features.  相似文献   

14.
Assessments of species vulnerability to climate change should increase the effectiveness of interventions in the current decline in biodiversity. Species vulnerability to climate change is a consequence of their sensitivity and adaptive capacity, in combination with their exposure to climate change. We apply a vulnerability assessment framework to 243 bird species inhabiting the tropical savannas of northern Australia. We build on previous vulnerability studies by including detailed data for variables relating to species sensitivity to change (relative abundance, clutch size, sensitivity to fire and distribution area), species adaptive capacity (movement behaviour and dietary breadth) and proportional changes predicted for their geographic range (i.e. exposure to climate change). These are integrated to provide a ranking of vulnerability. Our analysis found that birds of Australian tropical savannas cluster together with high sensitivity, with a few wide‐ranging increasing species with very low sensitivity. Australian tropical savanna birds have a range of adaptive capacities, and the impact of climate change on these species is predicted to be substantial. Two already endangered species are among the most vulnerable. Species largely restricted to Cape York Peninsula (a geographically distinct region) had the greatest overall vulnerability; these species were, in general, sensitive due to small distributions, sensitivity to fire frequency and had a lower capacity for dispersal. It will be important for the future of Australian tropical savanna birds to mitigate ecological threats and maintain extensive areas of suitable habitat to facilitate species dispersal.  相似文献   

15.
Species monitoring plays an important role in determining whether conservation targets are being met. However, monitoring programs can be costly and logistically demanding. When site characteristics are strongly linked to species’ status, managers may instead choose to monitor the site characteristics themselves as a surrogate of species status. In this study, we modelled the occupancy status and abundance of pond-breeding amphibians in a network of protected areas across Switzerland. We incorporated remotely-sensed data describing habitat within breeding sites in order to identify any characteristics which could act as monitoring surrogates for amphibian species’ status. We found that connectivity between amphibian breeding sites was an important predictor of occupancy patterns for all species, but that abundance patterns were poorly predicted. Despite expectations that the habitat characteristics assessed from aerial images were important for the species studied, we found that these variables were rarely strong predictors of occupancy patterns. These results highlight the importance of caution in identifying species monitoring surrogates, and the need to explicitly demonstrate strong relationships between surrogates and state variables of interest before surrogates are used.  相似文献   

16.
Ecological communities are comprised of species that interact with each other and those interactions ultimately generate community structure. Network theory provides a useful framework to study communities, by simultaneously considering species composition and the interactions among species. In this study, I use mixed-species flocks as model systems to gain insights on community and network structure. Specifically, I use co-occurrence network analyses to explore if avian mixed-species flocks change in richness and composition and/or in network structure and pair-wise associations, across elevations in the tropical Andes of Bolivia. Networks of flocking species changed both in composition and in the frequency and realization of pair-wise interactions across elevations, but changes in pair-wise associations explained most of network turnover along elevation. Pair-wise interactions changed rapidly, with shared species changing in position and importance within the network. Network dissimilarity was mostly explained by changes in the nature of associations rather than by differences in composition. Altogether, results show that montane mixed-species flocks are composed of loosely connected species and that most species have the potential of switching associations, often increasing in association strength at high elevations (up to 3150 m). Networks increased in connectivity and cohesion with elevation; flocks in lower elevations had more connections and these were less even. Above 3150 m a.s.l., there was rapid decay suggesting that flocks above this critical point are less connected and cohesive. This study exemplifies how combining community, network and pair-wise analyses can provide a more holistic view on the responses of species and assemblages to environmental gradients.  相似文献   

17.
Mountain ecosystems will likely be affected by global warming during the 21st century, with substantial biodiversity loss predicted by species distribution models (SDMs). Depending on the geographic extent, elevation range, and spatial resolution of data used in making these models, different rates of habitat loss have been predicted, with associated risk of species extinction. Few coordinated across-scale comparisons have been made using data of different resolutions and geographic extents. Here, we assess whether climate change-induced habitat losses predicted at the European scale (10 × 10' grid cells) are also predicted from local-scale data and modeling (25 m × 25 m grid cells) in two regions of the Swiss Alps. We show that local-scale models predict persistence of suitable habitats in up to 100% of species that were predicted by a European-scale model to lose all their suitable habitats in the area. Proportion of habitat loss depends on climate change scenario and study area. We find good agreement between the mismatch in predictions between scales and the fine-grain elevation range within 10 × 10' cells. The greatest prediction discrepancy for alpine species occurs in the area with the largest nival zone. Our results suggest elevation range as the main driver for the observed prediction discrepancies. Local-scale projections may better reflect the possibility for species to track their climatic requirement toward higher elevations.  相似文献   

18.
The South African grassland biome is one of the most threatened biomes in South Africa. Approximately 45% of the grassland biome area is transformed, degraded or severely invaded by alien plants and the remaining natural areas are highly fragmented. In this fragmented landscape, the connectivity between habitat patches is very important to maintain viable populations. In this study we aimed to quantify connectivity of the grassland biome in Mpumalanga using graph theory in order to identify conservation priorities and to direct conservation efforts. Graph theory‐based connectivity indices have the ability to combine spatially explicit habitat data with species specific dispersal data and can quantify structural and functional connectivity over large landscapes. We used these indices to quantify the overall connectivity of the study area, to determine the influence of abandoned croplands on overall connectivity, and to identify the habitat patches and vegetation types most in need of maintaining overall connectivity. Natural areas were identified using 2008 land cover data for Mpumalanga. Connectivity within the grassland biome of Mpumalanga was analysed for grassland species with dispersal distances ranging from 50 to 1000 m. The grassland habitat patches were mostly well connected, with 99.6% of the total habitat area connected in a single component at a threshold distance of 1000 m. The inclusion of abandoned croplands resulted in a 33% increase in connectivity at a threshold distance of 500 m. The habitat patches most important for maintaining overall connectivity were the large patches of continuous habitat in the upper and lower centres of the study area and the most important vegetation types were the Wakkerstroom Montane Grassland and the Eastern Temperate Freshwater Wetlands. These results can be used to inform management decisions and reserve design to improve and maintain connectivity in this biome.  相似文献   

19.
Identifying drivers of dispersal limitation and genetic differentiation is a key goal in biogeography. We examine patterns of population connectivity and genetic diversity using restriction site‐associated DNA sequencing (RADseq) in two bumble bee species, Bombus vosnesenskii and Bombus bifarius, across latitude and altitude in mountain ranges from California, Oregon and Washington, U.S.A. Bombus vosnesenskii, which occurs across a broader elevational range at most latitudes, exhibits little population structure while B. bifarius, which occupies a relatively narrow higher elevation niche across most latitudes, exhibits much stronger population differentiation, although gene flow in both species is best explained by isolation with environmental niche resistance. A relationship between elevational habitat breadth and genetic diversity is also apparent, with B. vosnesenskii exhibiting relatively consistent levels of genetic diversity across its range, while B. bifarius has reduced genetic diversity at low latitudes, where it is restricted to high‐elevation habitat. The results of this study highlight the importance of the intersect between elevational range and habitat suitability in influencing population connectivity and suggest that future climate warming will have a fragmenting effect even on populations that are presently well connected, as they track their thermal niches upward in montane systems.  相似文献   

20.
Evaluating the cumulative effects of the human footprint on landscape connectivity is crucial for implementing policies for the appropriate management and conservation of landscapes. We present an adjusted multidimensional spatial human footprint index (SHFI) to analyze the effects of landscape transformation on the remnant habitat connectivity for 40 terrestrial mammal species representative of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic System in Michoacán (TMVSMich), in western central Mexico. We adjusted the SHFI by adding fragmentation and habitat loss to its original three components: land use intensity, time of human landscape intervention, and biophysical vulnerability. The adjusted SHFI was applied to four scenarios: one grouping all species and three grouping several species by habitat spatial requirements. Using the SHFI as a dispersal resistance surface and applying a circuit theory based approach, we analyzed the effects of cumulative human impact on habitat connectivity in the different scenarios. For evaluating the relationship between habitat loss and connectivity, we applied graph theory-based equivalent connected area (ECA) index. Results show over 60% of the TMVSMich has high SHFI values, considerably lowering current flow for all species. Nevertheless, the effect on connectivity of human impact is higher for species with limited dispersal capacity (100–500 m). Our approach provides a new form of evaluating human impact on habitat connectivity that can be applied to different scales and landscapes. Furthermore, the approach is useful for guiding discussions and implementing future biodiversity conservation initiatives that promote landscape connectivity as an adaptive strategy for climate change.  相似文献   

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