Adult survival and productivity of Hutton's Shearwaters

Accurate estimation of breeding and survival parameters is essential to assess the population viability of the endangered Hutton's Shearwater Puffinus huttoni . This study investigated the accuracy of using field signs, an infrared 'burrowscope' and inspection hatches to monitor burrow occupancy and breeding success. Inspection hatches proved to be the most reliable means of measuring burrow occupancy and breeding success, and Hutton's Shearwaters appear to tolerate disturbance from this method. Data collected from inspection hatches over a 10-year period indicate that breeding success has averaged 46.5%, and that 70.5% of burrows are occupied by an incubating bird at the start of the breeding season. This occupancy figure suggests that the population of Hutton's Shearwaters may be closer to 106 000 breeding pairs than the 134 000 pairs previously estimated. Annual adult survival is estimated to be 93.1%. These values of breeding success and adult survival are very similar to published data on Puffinus species breeding in environments free from introduced predators.     

Optimizing surveys for marsh songbirds: does timing matter?

Analysis of data from point counts, a common method for monitoring bird population trends, has evolved to produce estimates of various population parameters (e.g., density, abundance, and occupancy) while simultaneously estimating detection probability. An important consideration when designing studies using point counts is to maximize detection probability while minimizing variation in detection probability both within and between counts. Our objectives were to estimate detection probabilities for three marsh songbirds, including Marsh Wrens (Cistothorus palustris), Swamp Sparrows (Melospiza georgiana), and Yellow‐headed Blackbirds (Xanthocephalus xanthocephalus), as a function of weather covariates and to evaluate temporal variability in detection probability of these three species. We conducted paired, unlimited radius, 10‐min point counts during consecutive morning and evening survey periods for our three focal species at 56 wetlands in Iowa from 20 April to 10 July 2010. Mean detection probabilities ranged from 0.272 (SE = 0.042) for Marsh Wrens to 0.365 (SE = 0.052) for Swamp Sparrows. Time of season was positively correlated with detection probability for Swamp Sparrows, but was negatively correlated with detection probability for Yellow‐headed Blackbirds, suggesting that detection probability increased during the breeding season for Swamp Sparrows and was highest early in the breeding season for Yellow‐headed Blackbirds. Understanding how detection probabilities of marsh songbirds vary throughout the breeding season allows targeted survey efforts that maximize detection probabilities for these species. Furthermore, consistent detection probabilities of marsh songbirds during morning and evening survey periods mean that investigators have more time to conduct surveys for these birds, allowing greater flexibility to increase spatial and temporal replication of surveys that could provide more precise estimates of desired population parameters.     

A comparison of breeding population estimators using nest and brood monitoring data

For many species, breeding population size is an important metric for assessing population status. A variety of simple methods are often used to estimate this metric for ground‐nesting birds that nest in open habitats (e.g., beaches, riverine sandbars). The error and bias associated with estimates derived using these methods vary in relation to differing monitoring intensities and detection rates. However, these errors and biases are often difficult to obtain, poorly understood, and largely unreported. A method was developed to estimate the number of breeding pairs using counts of nests and broods from monitoring data where multiple surveys were made throughout a single breeding season (breeding pair estimator; BPE). The BPE method was compared to two commonly used estimation methods using simulated data from an individual‐based model that allowed for the comparison of biases and accuracy. The BPE method underestimated the number of breeding pairs, but generally performed better than the other two commonly used methods when detection rates were low and monitoring frequency was high. As detection rates and time between surveys increased, the maximum nest and brood count method performs similar to the BPE. The BPE was compared to four commonly used methods to estimate breeding pairs for empirically derived data sets on the Platte River. Based on our simulated data, we expect our BPE to be closest to the true number of breeding pairs as compared to other methods. The methods tested resulted in substantially different estimates of the numbers of breeding pairs; however, coefficients from trend analyses were not statistically different. When data from multiple nest and brood surveys are available, the BPE appears to result in reasonably precise estimates of numbers of breeding pairs. Regardless of the estimation method, investigators are encouraged to acknowledge whether the method employed is likely to over‐ or underestimate breeding pairs. This study provides a means to recognize the potential biases in breeding pair estimates.     

Can Camera Traps Monitor Komodo Dragons a Large Ectothermic Predator?

Camera trapping has greatly enhanced population monitoring of often cryptic and low abundance apex carnivores. Effectiveness of passive infrared camera trapping, and ultimately population monitoring, relies on temperature mediated differences between the animal and its ambient environment to ensure good camera detection. In ectothermic predators such as large varanid lizards, this criterion is presumed less certain. Here we evaluated the effectiveness of camera trapping to potentially monitor the population status of the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis), an apex predator, using site occupancy approaches. We compared site-specific estimates of site occupancy and detection derived using camera traps and cage traps at 181 trapping locations established across six sites on four islands within Komodo National Park, Eastern Indonesia. Detection and site occupancy at each site were estimated using eight competing models that considered site-specific variation in occupancy (ψ)and varied detection probabilities (p) according to detection method, site and survey number using a single season site occupancy modelling approach. The most parsimonious model [ψ (site), p (site*survey); ω = 0.74] suggested that site occupancy estimates differed among sites. Detection probability varied as an interaction between site and survey number. Our results indicate that overall camera traps produced similar estimates of detection and site occupancy to cage traps, irrespective of being paired, or unpaired, with cage traps. Whilst one site showed some evidence detection was affected by trapping method detection was too low to produce an accurate occupancy estimate. Overall, as camera trapping is logistically more feasible it may provide, with further validation, an alternative method for evaluating long-term site occupancy patterns in Komodo dragons, and potentially other large reptiles, aiding conservation of this species.     

Trends in numbers of petrels attracted to artificial lights suggest population declines in Tenerife,Canary Islands

The secretive breeding behaviour of petrels makes monitoring their breeding populations challenging. To assess population trends of Cory’s Shearwater Calonectris diomedea, Bulwer’s Petrel Bulweria bulwerii and Macaronesian Shearwater Puffinus baroli in Tenerife from 1990 to 2010, we used data from rescue campaigns that aim to reduce the mortality of fledgling petrels attracted to artificial lights as proxies for trends in breeding population size. Despite increases in human population size and light pollution, the number of rescued fledglings of Cory’s Shearwater and Bulwer’s Petrel increased and remained stable, respectively, whereas numbers of rescued Macaronesian Shearwaters sharply declined. In the absence of more accurate population estimates, these results suggest a worrying decline in the Macaronesian Shearwater’s breeding population.     

Distribution, abundance and breeding cycle of the Australian sea lion Neophoca cinerea (Mammalia: Pinnipedia)

Surveys of the Australian sea lion Neophoca cinerea were conducted throughout its range in Western and South Australia between December 1987 and February 1992. Almost every island was visited between Houtman Abrolhos and The Pages ( n = 255), many of them more than once.
Sea lions breed on at least 50 islands, 27 in Western Australia and 23 in South Australia. Of the 50 breeding sites, 31 have not been reported previously. A further 19 islands may also support breeding colonies. A total of 1,941 pups was counted and pup production was estimated at 2,432. Only five colonies produced more than 100 pups each and they accounted for almost half of the pup production. Most of these colonies are near Kangaroo Island, South Australia. A breeding cycle of 17–18 months has been reported for N. cinerea at Kangaroo Island and on the west coast of Western Australia; this was also noted at another 11 islands where repeated visits coincided with breeding. No evidence was found for breeding seasons shorter or longer than 17–18 months. The breeding season was not synchronized between islands, as it is in other pinnipeds. A predictive model is developed to estimate the population size from pup production figures. It indicates that pup numbers should be multiplied by between 3.81 and 4.81 to estimate the total population size just before the pupping season begins. This leads to estimates of 9,300–11,700 for the total population, considerably greater than earlier estimates.
Causes of the unique reproductive cycle of N. cinerea are unknown, but we hypothesize that it results from living in a temperate climate in some of the most biologically depauperate waters of the world. It is also clear that day length and water temperature cannot act as exogenous cues for implantation of the blastocyst; the physiological events of gestation must, rather, be cued endogenously.     

DISTRIBUTION AND POPULATION SIZE OF THE SOUTHERN SEA LION (OTARIA FLAVESCENS) IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CHUBUT,PATAGONIA, ARGENTINA

Population size and distribution of Otaria flavescens in central and southern Chubut, Patagonia were determined by aerial censuses conducted during the breeding season in 1989 and 1995 and outside the season. Pup numbers were corrected by means of a linear regression between pup and adult male (AM) numbers obtained from terrestrial censuses carried out in 1994 and 1996. During the 1989 breeding season, 10,557 sea lions occurred at 29 locations; 2,800 (26.3%) were pups. During the 1995 breeding season, 14,887 animals were censused at 32 sites; 3,311 (22.2%) were pups. The corrected pup number increased to 4,852, indicating that around 32% is lost when counting from photographs. The corrected total number increased to 16,483; this fell to less than one half between breeding seasons (November 1990 and 1995). The 1995 breeding season census represents the highest number since 1972 (8,800) and the widest historical dispersion (37 sites year round contrasting with 13 in the late 1940s and 1972). However, the present number is about one half of the 33,000 censused about 50 yr ago. Using a correction factor developed for the north Paragonian population (1.8 × censused number) the present population size in the area can be estimated at around 29,669 individuals.     

Estimating breeding season abundance of golden-cheeked warblers in Texas,USA

Population abundance estimates using predictive models are important for describing habitat use and responses to population-level impacts, evaluating conservation status of a species, and for establishing monitoring programs. The golden-cheeked warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia) is a neotropical migratory bird that was listed as federally endangered in 1990 because of threats related to loss and fragmentation of its woodland habitat. Since listing, abundance estimates for the species have mainly relied on localized population studies on public lands and qualitative-based methods. Our goal was to estimate breeding population size of male warblers using a predictive model based on metrics for patches of woodland habitat throughout the species' breeding range. We first conducted occupancy surveys to determine range-wide distribution. We then conducted standard point-count surveys on a subset of the initial sampling locations to estimate density of males. Mean observed patch-specific density was 0.23 males/ha (95% CI = 0.197–0.252, n = 301). We modeled the relationship between patch-specific density of males and woodland patch characteristics (size and landscape composition) and predicted patch occupancy. The probability of patch occupancy, derived from a model that used patch size and landscape composition as predictor variables while addressing effects of spatial relatedness, best predicted patch-specific density. We predicted patch-specific densities as a function of occupancy probability and estimated abundance of male warblers across 63,616 woodland patches accounting for 1.678 million ha of potential warbler habitat. Using a Monte Carlo simulation, our approach yielded a range-wide male warbler population estimate of 263,339 (95% CI: 223,927–302,620). Our results provide the first abundance estimate using habitat and count data from a sampling design focused on range-wide inference. Managers can use the resulting model as a tool to support conservation planning and guide recovery efforts. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Estimating population size and density of a low-density population of black bears in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado

Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP) is home to a low-density black bear (Ursus americanus) population that exists at >2,400?m with a very limited growing season. A previous study (1984–1991) found bear densities among the lowest reported (1.37–1.52 bears/100?km²). Because of concerns of viability of this small population, we assessed population size and density of black bears from 2003 to 2006 to determine the current status of RMNP’s bear population. We used three approaches to estimate population size and density: (1) minimum number known, (2) occupancy modeling, and (3) catch per unit effort (CPUE). We used information from capture and remote-triggered cameras, as well as visitor information, to derive a minimum known population estimate of 20–24 individuals and a median density estimate of 1.35 bears/100?km². Bear occupancy was estimated at 0.46 (SE?=?0.11), with occupancy positively influenced by lodgepole pine stands, non-vegetated areas, and patch density but negatively influenced by mixed conifer stands. We combined the occupancy estimate with mean home-range size and overlap for bears in RMNP to derive a density estimate of 1.44 bears/100?km². We also related CPUE to density estimates for eight low-density black bear populations to estimate density in RMNP; this estimate (1.03 bears/100?km²) was comparable to the occupancy estimate and suggests that this approach may be useful for future population monitoring. The use of corroborative techniques for assessing population size of a low-density black bear population was effective and should be considered for similar low-density wildlife populations.     

Population trends in a substantial colony of Little Penguins: three independent measures over three decades

Estimating long-term population trends is vital for the conservation and management of species, yet few trends exist and fewer still are verified with independent measures. We compared three independent measures of change in population size over 27 years (1984–2011) for a significant Little Penguin Eudyptula minor colony in south-eastern Australia: (1) a series of 13 colony-wide surveys conducted in eight separate years, (2) mean nightly counts of penguins returning to breeding sites (365 counts × 27 years) and (3) population growth rates from a demographic model based on survival and recruitment rates measured at three sites each year. Colony-wide surveys of burrows were used as a benchmark of change in population size in the 8 years they were conducted as they were a robust measure of population size corrected for intra-annual variation in burrow occupancy using mark-recapture modelling at six reference sites. However, the demographic model matched the trend from colony-wide surveys with greater resolution in years and with less effort. Beach counts were unreliable for monitoring trends for the entire population due to its singular and peripheral location in the colony. Trends indicate a doubling of the population from 1984 to 2011 despite a marked population contraction linked to a mass mortality of a key prey species. The colony appears secure but remains subject to changes in the marine and terrestrial environments in the longer term.     

An assessment of the breeding range,colony sizes and population of the Westland petrel (Procellaria westlandica)

Abstract

The Westland petrel (Procellaria westlandica) is an endemic New Zealand species and one of the very few burrowing seabird species still breeding on mainland New Zealand. It nests only on a series of coastal ridgelines near to Punakaiki on the West Coast of the South Island. Between 2002 and 2005, surveys were undertaken at 28 of the 29 known colonies. The area occupied by the colonies was 73 ha; most colonies had fewer than 50 burrows, but six colonies had 201–500 burrows and four colonies had more than 1000 burrows. We find that the current breeding range of Westland petrel and the location of individual colonies are similar to those reported in both the 1950s and 1970s. Based on total burrow counts at 28 colonies and burrow occupancy rates determined by annual monitoring, the annual breeding population is estimated to be between 2954 and 5137 breeding pairs.     

Territory occupancy and breeding success of Peregrine Falcons Falco peregrinus at various stages of population recovery

Organochlorine pesticides disrupted reproduction and killed many raptorial birds, and contributed to population declines during the 1940s to 1970s. We sought to discern whether and to what extent territory occupancy and breeding success changed from the pesticide era to recent years in a resident population of Peregrine Falcons Falco peregrinus in southern Scotland using long‐term (1964–2015) field data and multi‐state, multi‐season occupancy models. Peregrine territories that were occupied with successful reproduction in one year were much more likely to be occupied and experience reproductive success in the following year, compared with those that were unoccupied or occupied by unsuccessful breeders in the previous year. Probability of territory occupancy differed between territories in the eastern and western parts of the study area, and varied over time. The probability of occupancy of territories that were unoccupied and those that were occupied with successful reproduction during the previous breeding season generally increased over time, whereas the probability of occupancy of territories that were occupied after failed reproduction decreased. The probability of reproductive success (conditional on occupancy) in territories that were occupied during the previous breeding season increased over time. Specifically, for territories that had been successful in the previous year, the probability of occupancy as well as reproductive success increased steadily over time; these probabilities were substantially higher in recent years than earlier, when the population was still exposed to direct or residual effects of organochlorine pesticides. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that progressive reduction, followed by a complete ban, in the use of organochlorine pesticides improved reproductive success of Peregrines in southern Scotland. Differences in the temporal pattern of probability of reproductive success between south‐eastern and south‐western Scotland suggest that the effect of organochlorine pesticides on Peregrine reproductive success and/or the recovery from pesticide effects varied geographically and was possibly affected by other factors such as persecution.     

Considerations for monitoring population trends of colonial waterbirds using the effective number of breeders and census estimates

Detecting trends in population size fluctuations is a major focus in ecology, evolution, and conservation biology. Populations of colonial waterbirds have been monitored using demographic approaches to determine annual census size (N_a). We propose the addition of genetic estimates of the effective number of breeders (N_b) as indirect measures of the risk of loss of genetic diversity to improve the evaluation of demographics and increase the accuracy of trend estimates in breeding colonies. Here, we investigated which methods of the estimation of N_b are more precise under conditions of moderate genetic diversity, limited sample sizes and few microsatellite loci, as often occurs with natural populations. We used the wood stork as a model species and we offered a workflow that researchers can follow for monitoring bird breeding colonies. Our approach started with simulations using five estimators of N_b and the theoretical results were validated with empirical data collected from breeding colonies settled in the Brazilian Pantanal wetland. In parallel, we estimated census size using a corrected method based on counting active nests. Both in simulations and in natural populations, the approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and sibship assignment (SA) methods yielded more precise estimates than the linkage disequilibrium, heterozygosity excess, and molecular coancestry methods. In particular, the ABC method performed best with few loci and small sample sizes, while the other estimators required larger sample sizes and at least 13 loci to not underestimate N_b. Moreover, according to our N_b/N_a estimates (values were often ≤0.1), the wood stork colonies evaluated could be facing the loss of genetic diversity. We demonstrate that the combination of genetic and census estimates is a useful approach for monitoring natural breeding bird populations. This methodology has been recommended for populations of rare species or with a known history of population decline to support conservation efforts.     

THE HOUSE SPARROW PASSER DOMESTICUS: POPULATION PROBLEMS

Two problems of House Sparrow populations are examined: the influence of habitat on numbers and the variation in a population of House Sparrows throughout the year. Available data on censuses in Great Britain enable the population to be estimated as 10 millions; censuses from several parts of the bird's range suggest that House Sparrow numbers are correlated with the human population, the ratio being 1: 5. The seasonal variation in composition of a population is estimated from observations over five years on House Sparrows breeding on a group of seventeen houses together with breeding and mortality data obtained from British Trust for Ornithology records. The population reaches a maximum at the end of July when it is slightly less than double that at the beginning of the breeding season. It is considered that numbers are controlled by food supply and the colonial behaviour of the bird.     

An improved survey method for monitoring population trends of Golden‐winged Warblers and other patchily distributed birds

Conventional surveys designed to monitor common and widespread species may fail to adequately track population changes of rare or patchily distributed species that are often of high conservation concern. We evaluated the performance of a new monitoring approach that employs both a spatially balanced sampling design and a targeted survey protocol designed to estimate population trends of one such patchily distributed species, the Golden‐winged Warbler (Vermivora chrysoptera), in the Appalachian Mountains Bird Conservation Region (BCR 28), USA. Our spatially balanced survey consisted of 105 sample quads (one‐quarter Delorme Atlas pages) across the current range of Golden‐winged Warblers within BCR 28, each with five sample points located in early successional habitat. From 2009 to 2013, collaborators visited each sample point once per year during the peak breeding season and conducted a 17‐min survey consisting of passive observation and playback of conspecific songs and mobbing vocalizations. We used multi‐season, single‐species occupancy models to estimate probability of quad occupancy, detection probability, and occupancy dynamics for Golden‐winged Warblers and closely related Blue‐winged Warblers (Vermivora cyanoptera). Our survey protocol resulted in high estimates of detection probability for Golden‐winged (92%) and Blue‐winged (79%) warblers, with 47% and 56% of quads estimated to be initially occupied, respectively. Derived population trend estimates (λ) indicated an average decline in population of 6% for Golden‐winged Warblers and 7% for Blue‐winged Warblers, resulting in estimated 21% and 22% declines, respectively, in quad occupancy after 5 yr. Our results demonstrate that coupling a spatially balanced survey design in appropriate habitat with a playback protocol to increase detection rates is a viable strategy for tracking populations of Golden‐winged Warblers in the Appalachian Mountains BCR. Similar survey methods should be considered for other rare, declining, or patchily distributed bird species that require targeted monitoring.     

Occupancy Patterns of Breeding American Black Ducks

Occupancy patterns can assist with the determination of habitat limitation during breeding or wintering periods and can help guide population and habitat management efforts. American black ducks (Anas rubripes; black ducks) are thought to be limited by habitat and food availability during the winter, but breeding sites may also limit the size or growth potential of the population. The Canadian Wildlife Service conducts an annual breeding waterfowl survey that we used to explore the hypothesis that black duck carrying capacity is limited by wetlands available for breeding in Québec, Canada. We applied single-visit, multi-species occupancy models to the 1990–2015 population survey data to determine if there was evidence the black duck population was limited by breeding habitat. Using a dynamic (multi-season) occupancy modeling approach, we estimated latent occupancy (occupancy accounting for imperfect detection) of black ducks and then used latent occupancy estimates to derive occupancy, colonization, and extirpation rates. We jointly modeled the occupancy dynamics of black ducks and other duck species in wetlands where both species were present. Throughout the duration of the survey, 44% of wetlands were never observed to be occupied by black ducks. Occupancy models showed wetland size was positively associated with occupancy at the first time step (initial occupancy) and colonization. All 2-species models indicated initial black duck occupancy, persistence (continued occupancy), and colonization were positively associated with the presence of a second species. Colonization rate over the 26-year period ranged from 7% to 27% across all models. Extirpation rates were similar and were constant through time within each model. Low occupancy rates, combined with approximately equal colonization and extirpation rates, suggest there are available wetlands for breeding black ducks in their core breeding area. If breeding habitats are not saturated, this suggests migration or wintering areas may be more limiting to black duck population abundance. © 2019 The Wildlife Society.     

The use of acoustics to monitor burrow-nesting white-chinned petrels Procellaria aequinoctialis at Bird Island, South Georgia

Tape recordings of two types of vocalisations were used to assess burrow occupancy by white-chinned petrels (Procellaria aequinoctialis) at South Georgia. Birds responded to the rattle call on 74% of occasions and a wheezy call on 85%, with only 10% failing to respond to both calls played one after the other. Occupancy was determined throughout the pre-egg and incubation period and results confirmed what is known about patterns of occupancy by white-chinned petrels. Adults in burrows known to hatch a chick responded on average to 69% of recordings during incubation and less than 10% in only 4% of burrows. Significant inter-site and inter-annual variations in occupancy were recorded, suggesting that this method is sensitive to changes in the number of petrels returning to breed. A sampling protocol for providing population indices for monitoring purposes is recommended. Accepted: 6 March 2000     

Estimating the abundance of burrow‐nesting species through the statistical analysis of combined playback and visual surveys

The conservation of elusive species relies on our ability to obtain unbiased estimates of their abundance trends. Many species live or breed in cavities, making it easy to define the search units (the cavity) yet hard to ascertain their occupancy. One such example is that of certain colonial seabirds like petrels and shearwaters, which occupy burrows to breed. In order to increase the chances of detection for these types of species, their sampling can be done using two independent methods to check for cavity occupancy: visual inspection, and acoustic response to a playback call. This double‐detection process allows us to estimate the probability of burrow occupancy by accounting for the probability of detection associated with each method. Here we provide a statistical framework to estimate the occupancy and population size of burrow‐dwelling species. We show how to implement the method using both maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches, and test its precision and bias using simulated datasets. We subsequently illustrate how to extend the method to situations where two different species may occupy the burrows, and apply it to a dataset on wedge‐tailed shearwaters Puffinus pacificus and tropical shearwaters P. bailloni on Aride Island, Seychelles. The simulations showed that the single‐species model performed well in terms of error and bias except when detection probabilities and occupancies were very low. The two‐species model applied to shearwaters showed that detection probabilities were highly heterogeneous. The population sizes of wedge‐tailed and tropical shearwaters were estimated at 13 716 (95% CI: 12 909–15 874) and 25 550 (23 667–28 777) pairs respectively. The advantages of formulating the call‐playback sampling method statistically is that it provides a framework to calculate uncertainty in the estimates and model assumptions. This method is applicable to a variety of cavity‐dwelling species where two methods can be used to detect cavity occupancy.     

When and where to count? Implications of migratory connectivity and nonbreeding distribution to population censuses in a migratory bird population

Migratory connectivity is a metric of the co-occurrence of migratory animals originating from different breeding sites, and like their spatial dispersion, can vary substantially during the annual cycle. Together, both these properties affect the optimal times and sites of population censusing. We tracked taiga bean geese (Anser fabalis fabalis) during 2014–2021 to study their migratory connectivity and nonbreeding movements and determine optimal periods to assess the size of their main flyway population. We also compared available census data with tracking data, to examine how well two existing censuses covered the population. Daily Mantel's correlation between breeding and nonbreeding sites lay between 0 and 0.5 during most of the nonbreeding season, implying birds from different breeding areas were not strongly separated at other times in the annual cycle. However, the connectivity was higher among birds from the westernmost breeding areas compared to the birds breeding elsewhere. Daily Minimum Convex Polygons showed tracked birds were highly aggregated at census times, confirming their utility. The number of tracked birds absent at count sites during the censuses however exceeded numbers double-counted at several sites, indicating that censuses might have underestimated the true population size. Our results show that connectivity can vary in different times during the nonbreeding period, and should be studied throughout the annual cycle. Our results also confirm previous studies, which have found that estimates using marked individuals usually produce higher population size estimates than total counts. This should be considered when using total counts to assess population sizes in the future.     

Breeding Ecology of Mottled Ducks: A Review

Mottled ducks (Anas fulvigula) are endemic to the Gulf Coast of North America, and their range stretches from Alabama to the Laguna Madre of Mexico, with a distinct population in peninsular Florida and an introduced population in South Carolina. As one of the few non-migratory ducks in North America, mottled ducks depend on a variety of locally available habitat throughout the annual cycle, and threats to these landscapes may affect mottled ducks more acutely than migratory species. Annual population monitoring has revealed declines in mottled duck populations in Texas and Louisiana since 2008, and the genetic integrity of the Florida population has been muddled by the presence of large numbers of feral mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) resulting in hybridization. Similar to other closely related dabbling ducks, mottled duck populations are influenced by recruitment and breeding season survival, so changes in these factors may contribute to population decline. Accordingly, researchers have attempted to address various aspects of mottled duck breeding season ecology and population dynamics since the 1950s. We conducted a literature review on this topic by searching a combination of key terms using Google Scholar, including mottled duck, nesting ecology, habitat use, breeding incidence, nest success, brood, and breeding season survival, and followed citation trees to eventually aggregate information from nearly 50 publications on mottled duck breeding ecology. Our review concluded that mottled ducks use brackish and intermediate coastal marsh, including managed impoundments, and agricultural land during the breeding season. Their nests can be found in pastures, levees, dry cordgrass marsh, cutgrass marsh, spoil banks, and small islands. Nesting propensity and nest success estimates are often lower than other waterfowl species that are characterized by stable or increasing populations. Broods use wetlands composed of a mix of open water with submerged and emergent vegetation. Breeding season survival is higher for the Florida population than the western Gulf Coast population, but adult survival in both geographies is comparable to (or higher than) that of other dabbling duck species. Breeding habitat use, breeding season survival, and nest-site selection and success have been studied extensively in mottled ducks, whereas information on nesting propensity, renesting intensity, and post-hatch ecology is lacking. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.