Integrating ecophysiological models into species distribution projections of European reptile range shifts in response to climate change

Uncertainty in projections of global change impacts on biodiversity over the 21st century is high. Improved predictive accuracy is needed, highlighting the importance of using different types of models when predicting species range shifts. However, this is still rarely done. Our approach integrates the outputs of a spatially‐explicit physiologically inspired model of extinction and correlative species distribution models to assess climate‐change induced range shifts of three European reptile species (Lacerta lepida, Iberolacerta monticola, and Hemidactylus turcicus) in the coming decades. We integrated the two types of models by mapping and quantifying agreement and disagreement between their projections. We analyzed the relationships between climate change and projected range shifts. Agreement between model projections varied greatly between species and depended on whether or not they consider dispersal ability. Under our approach, the reliability of predictions is greatest where the predictions of these different types of models converge, and in this way uncertainty is reduced; sites where this convergence occurs are characterized by both current high temperatures and significant future temperature increase, suggesting they may become hotspots of local extinctions. Moreover, this approach can be readily implemented with other types of models.     

Freakish patterns – species and species concepts in apomicts

Apomict groups keep challenging taxonomists, in classifications as well as in more fundamental question about the nature of apomictic species. The latter question is not just an academic one, because the outcome influences practical decisions on biodiversity and conservation. A historical overview over the species problem shows that a period of confusion and proliferation of species concepts between 1940 and 1990 was followed by an increasing consensus at the end of the 20th century that the species category is heterogeneous. Species come in kinds, which is understandable in light of their different evolutional histories. Recently, Wilkins stated that we do not need a generally applicable species concept, because species are not an a priori category into which all biological organisms must fit, but salient phenomena that are to be explained. Not only biparental, but also asexual organisms often form such species‐as‐phenomena, explained as some combination of adaptation to an ecological niche and reproductive compatibility. The above is illustrated by historical and current studies in three well‐studied apomict groups, viz. Ranunculus cassubicus agg., Rubus subgen. Rubus and Hieracium (subgen. Hieracium and Pilosella). Species in the Ranunculus cassubicus aggregate are the few existing sexuals, which are surrounded by a hybrid swarm of only partial apomictic forms, whereas in Rubus subgen. Rubus and Hieracium s.s. sexuals as well as numerous apomicts form well defined species. How species should be circumscribed in Pilosella is yet to be clarified. Largely, the differences between these groups can be contributed to their different modes of apomixis and the associated retained sexuality. From this review it is clear that the question is not so much ‘What is a species?‘, but ‘What is a species in this particular group?‘ To answer this question a thorough knowledge and understanding of the biology of the genus in question is required.     

Ombrohydrochory: Rain-operated seed dispersal in plants – With special regard to jet-action dispersal in Aizoaceae

The present review describes the ombrohydrochoric dispersal syndrome in plants, i.e. seed expulsion by raindrops. There are two different ombrohydrochoric dispersal modes – dispersal by rain wash and by ballistic forces. Both have been reported from the understory of tropical and temperate forests, from wetlands and from deserts, and from numerous families and genera. A special form of ombrohydrochoric dispersal is the jet-action rain-operated seed dispersal mechanism which is restricted to the semi-desert ice plants, Aizoaceae, one of the major families of the angiosperms. Within this family, 98% of the species possess hygrochastic capsules with an ombrohydrochoric seed dispersal mechanism which in part are also responsible for the remarkable speciation burst and radiation. The highly complex capsules open when wet, and the seeds are expelled by a ‘jet action’ with the kinetic energy of raindrops. The halves of the covering membranes of a locule form a nozzle near the centre of the capsule which serves as a jet. Drops of water falling on the distal opening (after the locule has been filled with water) result in an explosive expulsion of water droplets and seeds through that jet. More seeds are dispersed further away from the capsule than in those capsule types without such a jet mechanism.     

The importance of xylem constraints in the distribution of conifer species

Vulnerability of stem xylem to cavitation was measured in 10 species of conifers using high pressure air to induce xylem embolism. Mean values of air pressure required to induce a 50% loss in hydraulic conductivity (φ₅₀) varied enormously between species, ranging from a maximum of 14.2±0.6 MPa (corresponding to a xylem water potential of −14.2 MPa) in the semi-arid species Actinostrobus acuminatus to a minimum of 2.3±0.2 MPa in the rainforest species Dacrycarpus dacrydioides . Mean φ₅₀ was significantly correlated with the mean rainfall of the driest quarter within the distribution of each species. The value of φ₅₀ was also compared with leaf drought tolerance data for these species in order to determine whether xylem dysfunction during drought dictated drought response at the leaf level. Previous data describing the maximum depletion of internal CO₂ concentration (c_i) in the leaves of these species during artificial drought was strongly correlated with φ₅₀ suggesting a primary role of xylem in effecting leaf drought response. The possibility of a trade-off between xylem conductivity and xylem vulnerability was tested in a sub-sample of four species, but no evidence of an inverse relationship between φ₅₀ and either stem-area specific (K_a) or leaf-area specific conductivity (K₁) was found.     

demoniche – an R‐package for simulating spatially‐explicit population dynamics

demoniche is a freely available R‐package which simulates stochastic population dynamics in multiple populations of a species. A demographic model projects population sizes utilizing several transition matrices that can represent impacts on species growth. The demoniche model offers options for setting demographic stochasticity, carrying capacity, and dispersal. The demographic projection in each population is linked to spatially‐explicit niche values, which affect the species growth. With the demoniche package it is possible to compare the influence of scenarios of environmental changes on future population sizes, extinction probabilities, and range shifts of species.     

The effect of dispersal on single-species nonautonomous dispersal models with delays

In this paper, single-species nonautonomous dispersal models with delays are considered. An interesting result on the effect of dispersal for persistence and extinction is obtained. That is, if the species is persistent in a patch then it is also persistent in all other patches; if the species is permanent in a patch then it is also permanent in all other patches; if the species is extinct in a patch then it is also extinct in all other patches. Furthermore, some new sufficient conditions for the permanence and extinction of the species in a patch are established. The existence of positive periodic solutions is obtained in the periodic case by employing Teng and Chen's results on the existence of positive periodic solutions for functional differential equations. Received: 26 June 2000 / Revised version: 6 October 2000 / Published online: 10 April 2001     

Incorporating patterns of disperser behaviour into models of seed dispersal and its effects on estimated dispersal curves

The processes determining where seeds fall relative to their parent plant influence the spatial structure and dynamics of plant populations and communities. For animal dispersed species the factors influencing seed shadows are poorly understood. In this paper we test the hypothesis that the daily temporal distribution of disperser behaviours, for example, foraging and movement, influences dispersal outcomes, in particular the shape and scale of dispersal curves. To do this, we describe frugivory and the dispersal curves produced by the southern cassowary, Casuarius casuarius, the only large-bodied disperser in Australia’s rainforests. We found C. casuarius consumed fruits of 238 species and of all fleshy-fruit types. In feeding trials, seeds of 11 species were retained on average for 309 min (±256 SD). Sampling radio-telemetry data randomly, that is, assuming foraging occurs at random times during the day, gives an estimated average dispersal distance of 239 m (±207 SD) for seeds consumed by C. casuarius. Approximately 4% of seeds were dispersed further than 1,000 m. However, observation of wild birds indicated that foraging and movement occur more frequently early and late in the day. Seeds consumed early in the day were estimated to receive dispersal distances 1.4 times the ‘random’ average estimate, while afternoon consumed seeds received estimated mean dispersal distances of 0.46 times the ‘random’ estimate. Sampling movement data according to the daily distribution of C. casuarius foraging gives an estimated mean dispersal distance of 337 m (±194 SD). Most animals’ behaviour has a non-random temporal distribution. Consequently such effects should be common and need to be incorporated into seed shadow estimation. Our results point to dispersal curves being an emergent property of the plant–disperser interaction rather than being a property of a plant or species.     

Using species distribution models for IUCN Red Lists of threatened species

Red Lists have been used for years globally and regionally in many countries to highlight species that need special attention because of the rarity or rapid decline of their populations. To ensure homogenized classification at the global and regional level, the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) defined categories of threat, and criteria to attribute the taxa to these categories. Nevertheless, the strict application of the criteria is not always straightforward, especially for invertebrates, because of the difficulties associated with precise estimates of the size and viability of their populations. This paper presents a method for the estimation of extent of occurrence (EOO) and area of occupancy (AOO) based on species distribution models using multivariate adaptive regression splines. To achieve this, presence data have been modeled against topographical and climatic explanatory variables. Predictions from the statistical distribution models have then been cut using the minimal convex hull around (EOO) or the watersheds in which (AOO) the species have really been observed in recent years. This allows us to delimit the EOO and AOO according to the IUCN criteria, and better take into account the ecological requirements of the species. Furthermore, the method allows for the use of historical data (e.g. from museum’s collections) and the direct comparison of historical and recent distributions of species. The method has been tested on six species of butterflies. The results show the possibility of using species distribution models to define the Red Lists status according to the IUCN guidelines, and shows that the results are consistent with previous Red Lists assessments.     

Evolution of the distribution of dispersal distance under distance‐dependent cost of dispersal

Abstract We analyse the evolution of the distribution of dispersal distances in a stable and homogeneous environment in one‐ and two‐dimensional habitats. In this model, dispersal evolves to avoid the competition between relatives although some cost might be associated with this behaviour. The evolutionarily stable dispersal distribution is characterized by an equilibration of the fitness gains among all the different dispersal distances. This cost‐benefit argument has heuristic value and facilitates the comprehension of results obtained numerically. In particular, it explains why some minimal or maximal probability of dispersal may evolve at intermediate distances when the cost of dispersal function is an increasing function of distance. We also show that kin selection may favour long range dispersal even if the survival cost of dispersal is very high, provided the survival probability does not vanish at long distances.