Climate change affects populations of northern birds in boreal protected areas

Human land-use effects on species populations are minimized in protected areas and population changes can thus be more directly linked with changes in climate. In this study, bird population changes in 96 protected areas in Finland were compared using quantitative bird census data, between two time slices, 1981-1999 and 2000-2009, with the mean time span being 14 years. Bird species were categorized by distribution pattern and migratory strategy. Our results showed that northern bird species had declined by 21 per cent and southern species increased by 29 per cent in boreal protected areas during the study period, alongside a clear rise (0.7-0.8 °C) in mean temperatures. Distribution pattern was the main factor, with migratory strategy interacting in explaining population changes in boreal birds. Migration strategy interacted with distribution pattern so that, among northern birds, densities of both migratory and resident species declined, whereas among southern birds they both increased. The observed decline of northern species and increase in southern species are in line with the predictions of range shifts of these species groups under a warming climate, and suggest that the population dynamics of birds are already changing in natural boreal habitats in association with changing climate.     

Impact of global warming on a group of related species and their hybrids: cherry tree (Rosaceae) flowering at Mt. Takao, Japan

Climate change is affecting plant phenology worldwide. Phenological responses vary among species, but it is not clear how responses differ among closely related species. We examined a 25-yr record (1981-2005) of flowering times for 97 trees, representing 17 species and hybrids of cherry (Cerasus sp. or Prunus sp.) grown at Mt. Takao, in Tokyo, Japan. The cherry trees flowered earlier over time, by an average of 5.5 d over the 25-yr study. Earlier flowering was explained largely by a 1.8°C increase in February-March mean monthly temperatures. Most species and hybrids flowered 3-5 d earlier for each 1°C increase in temperature, but early-flowering taxa flowered as much as 9 d earlier for each 1°C increase in temperature. Flowering durations and differences in flowering times among species were greater in warm years than in cold years. Species and individual trees also flowered longer in warm years. These results show that the flowering times of closely related species may change similarly in response to climate change, but that early-flowering species may diverge from the overall trend in a predictable way. Such changes in flowering may affect gene flow and pollination as the length of the flowering season increases.     

Leaf miner and plant galler species richness on Acacia: relative importance of plant traits and climate

Diversity patterns of herbivores have been related to climate, host plant traits, host plant distribution and evolutionary relationships individually. However, few studies have assessed the relative contributions of a range of variables to explain these diversity patterns across large geographical and host plant species gradients. Here we assess the relative influence that climate and host plant traits have on endophagous species (leaf miners and plant gallers) diversity across a suite of host species from a genus that is widely distributed and morphologically variable. Forty-six species of Acacia were sampled to encapsulate the diversity of species across four taxonomic sections and a range of habitats along a 950 km climatic gradient: from subtropical forest habitats to semi-arid habitats. Plant traits, climatic variables, leaf miner and plant galler diversity were all quantified on each plant species. In total, 97 leaf mining species and 84 plant galling species were recorded from all host plants. Factors that best explained leaf miner richness across the climatic gradient (using AIC model selection) included specific leaf area (SLA), foliage thickness and mean annual rainfall. The factor that best explained plant galler richness across the climatic gradient was C:N ratio. In terms of the influence of plant and climatic traits on species composition, leaf miner assemblages were best explained by SLA, foliage thickness, mean minimum temperature and mean annual rainfall, whilst plant gall assemblages were explained by C:N ratio, %P, foliage thickness, mean minimum temperature and mean annual rainfall. This work is the first to assess diversity and structure across a broad environmental gradient and a wide range of potential key climatic and plant trait determinants simultaneously. Such methods provide key insights into endophage diversity and provide a solid basis for assessing their responses to a changing climate.     

How much do local factors matter for predicting transient ecosystem dynamics? Suggestions from permafrost formation in boreal peatlands

With rapid climate warming, ecosystems will probably exhibit complex dynamics because local factors and life history attributes of species mediate the effects of regional climate change. To assess the relative importance of local vs. regional processes on permafrost formation in boreal peatlands, I sampled for permafrost and factors affecting its formation in 38 collapse scars across a 4 °C mean annual temperature (MAT) gradient in the discontinuous permafrost zone of northern Manitoba, Canada. Three complimentary approaches were used to model factors important to permafrost formation at both local and regional scales. In the first analysis, a mechanistic, spatial model of permafrost formation was developed as a function of Picea mariana size and proximity. In the second approach, permafrost formation was modelled as a function of two local factors, diameter of Picea mariana trees and emergent organic matter depth, and the regional factor, mean annual temperature (MAT). Finally, published aerial photography data were used to determine whether the proportion of bogs with permafrost changes across a MAT gradient. Results show that permafrost formation in boreal permafrost peatlands is best described as a locally driven process within regional climatic constraints. At local scales of 1–2 meters, the spatial and size distributions of trees controlled the spatial distribution of permafrost. At regional scales, tree size was a significantly better predictor than emergent organic matter or MAT. These results suggest that transient models of discontinuous permafrost based only on climate may poorly predict changes in vegetation and permafrost.     

Some like it hot! Rapid climate change promotes changes in distribution ranges of Nezara viridula and Nezara antennata in Japan

We compared past and current limits of the distribution range of the southern green stink bug, Nezara viridula (L.) (Heteroptera: Pentatomidae), in central Japan. In the early 1960s, the northern limit of the range was in Wakayama Prefecture and was limited by a +5 °C isothermal line for the mean January temperature. In 2006–2007, a new survey demonstrated that this northern limit had shifted northwards by 85 km (i.e., at a mean rate of 19.0 km per decade). The shift was most likely promoted by milder winter conditions. The mean January to February temperature in the region was 1.03–1.91 °C higher in 1998–2007 than in 1960–1969. The number of cold days (with the mean temperature below +5 °C) also significantly decreased, while the annual lowest temperature significantly increased. Nezara viridula was found mostly close to those locations where (i) the mean January temperature exceeded +5 °C, (ii) the mean number of cold days did not exceed 26 in January to February, and (iii) where the mean annual lowest temperature did not drop below –3.0 °C. The general linear model shows that the mean January temperature and number of cold days are the most important factors controlling the northern limit of distribution of N. viridula. All the climatic data suggest that over the last 45 years, environmental conditions have become more favourable for overwintering of N. viridula at many locations in central Japan. This has probably promoted the northward spread of the species, representing a direct response to climate warming. A sympatrically distributed congeneric, Nezara antennata Scott, seems to respond to the warming by a retreat from the ocean coast towards cooler elevated habitats, which might be a complex response to elevated temperature and interspecific mating with N. viridula. It is suggested that the range changes in both species will continue in response to further climate change.     

Predicted effects of climate warming on the distribution of 50 stream fishes in Wisconsin, USA

Summer air and stream water temperatures are expected to rise in the state of Wisconsin, U.S.A., over the next 50 years. To assess potential climate warming effects on stream fishes, predictive models were developed for 50 common fish species using classification-tree analysis of 69 environmental variables in a geographic information system. Model accuracy was 56·0-93·5% in validation tests. Models were applied to all 86 898 km of stream in the state under four different climate scenarios: current conditions, limited climate warming (summer air temperatures increase 1° C and water 0·8° C), moderate warming (air 3° C and water 2·4° C) and major warming (air 5° C and water 4° C). With climate warming, 23 fishes were predicted to decline in distribution (three to extirpation under the major warming scenario), 23 to increase and four to have no change. Overall, declining species lost substantially more stream length than increasing species gained. All three cold-water and 16 cool-water fishes and four of 31 warm-water fishes were predicted to decline, four warm-water fishes to remain the same and 23 warm-water fishes to increase in distribution. Species changes were predicted to be most dramatic in small streams in northern Wisconsin that currently have cold to cool summer water temperatures and are dominated by cold-water and cool-water fishes, and least in larger and warmer streams and rivers in southern Wisconsin that are currently dominated by warm-water fishes. Results of this study suggest that even small increases in summer air and water temperatures owing to climate warming will have major effects on the distribution of stream fishes in Wisconsin.     

Quantitative prediction of the distribution and abundance of Vaccinium myrtillus with climatic and edaphic factors

Question: Can the distribution and abundance of Vaccinium myrtillus be reasonably predicted with soil nutritional and climatic factors? Location: Forests of France. Methods: We used Braun‐Blanquet abundance/dominance information for Vaccinium myrtillus on 2905 forest sites extracted from the phyto‐ecological database EcoPlant, to characterize the species ecological response to climatic and edaphic factors and to predict its cover/abundance at the national scale. The link between cover/abundance of the species and climatic (65 monthly and annual predictors concerning temperature, precipitation, radiation, potential evapotranspiration, water balance) and edaphic (two predictors: soil pH and C:N ratio) factors was investigated with proportional odds models. We evaluated the quality of our model with 9830 independent relevés extracted from Sophy, a large phytosociological database for France. Results: In France, Vaccinium myrtillus is at the southern limit of its European geographic range and three environmental factors (mean annual temperature, soil pH and C:N ratio) allow prediction of its distribution and abundance in forests with high success rates. The species reveals a preference for colder sites (especially mountains) and nutritionally poor soils (low pH and high C:N ratio). A predictive map of its geographic range reveals that the main potential habitats are mountains and northwestern France. The potential habitats with maximal expected abundance are the Vosges and the Massif central mountains, which are both acidic mountains. Conclusions: Complete niche models including climate and soil nutritional conditions allow an improvement of the spatial prediction of plant species abundance at a broad scale. The use of soil nutritional variables in distribution models further leads to an improvement in the prediction of plant species habitats within their geographical range.     

Forecasting changes in population genetic structure of alpine plants in response to global warming

Species range shifts in response to climate and land use change are commonly forecasted with species distribution models based on species occurrence or abundance data. Although appealing, these models ignore the genetic structure of species, and the fact that different populations might respond in different ways because of adaptation to their environment. Here, we introduced ancestry distribution models, that is, statistical models of the spatial distribution of ancestry proportions, for forecasting intra-specific changes based on genetic admixture instead of species occurrence data. Using multi-locus genotypes and extensive geographic coverage of distribution data across the European Alps, we applied this approach to 20 alpine plant species considering a global increase in temperature from 0.25 to 4 °C. We forecasted the magnitudes of displacement of contact zones between plant populations potentially adapted to warmer environments and other populations. While a global trend of movement in a north-east direction was predicted, the magnitude of displacement was species-specific. For a temperature increase of 2 °C, contact zones were predicted to move by 92 km on average (minimum of 5 km, maximum of 212 km) and by 188 km for an increase of 4 °C (minimum of 11 km, maximum of 393 km). Intra-specific turnover-measuring the extent of change in global population genetic structure-was generally found to be moderate for 2 °C of temperature warming. For 4 °C of warming, however, the models indicated substantial intra-specific turnover for ten species. These results illustrate that, in spite of unavoidable simplifications, ancestry distribution models open new perspectives to forecast population genetic changes within species and complement more traditional distribution-based approaches.     

The mean and variance of environmental temperature interact to determine physiological tolerance and fitness

Global climate change poses one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. Most analyses of the potential biological impacts have focused on changes in mean temperature, but changes in thermal variance will also impact organisms and populations. We assessed the combined effects of the mean and variance of temperature on thermal tolerances, organismal survival, and population growth in Drosophila melanogaster. Because the performance of ectotherms relates nonlinearly to temperature, we predicted that responses to thermal variation (±0° or ±5°C) would depend on the mean temperature (17° or 24°C). Consistent with our prediction, thermal variation enhanced the rate of population growth (r(max)) at a low mean temperature but depressed this rate at a high mean temperature. The interactive effect on fitness occurred despite the fact that flies improved their heat and cold tolerances through acclimation to thermal conditions. Flies exposed to a high mean and a high variance of temperature recovered from heat coma faster and survived heat exposure better than did flies that developed at other conditions. Relatively high survival following heat exposure was associated with low survival following cold exposure. Recovery from chill coma was affected primarily by the mean temperature; flies acclimated to a low mean temperature recovered much faster than did flies acclimated to a high mean temperature. To develop more realistic predictions about the biological impacts of climate change, one must consider the interactions between the mean environmental temperature and the variance of environmental temperature.     

Millennial-scale vegetation dynamics in an estuary at the onset of the Miocene Climate Optimum

Pollen analyses have been proven to possess the possibility to decipher rapid vegetational and climate shifts in Neogene sedimentary records. Herein, a c. 21-kyr-long transgression-regression cycle from the Lower Austrian locality Stetten is analysed in detail to evaluate climatic benchmarks for the early phase of the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum and to estimate the pace of environmental change.Based on the Coexistence Approach, a very clear signal of seasonality can be reconstructed. A warm and wet summer season with c. 204-236 mm precipitation during the wettest month was opposed by a rather dry winter season with precipitation of c. 9-24 mm during the driest month. The mean annual temperature ranged between 15.7 and 20.8 °C, with about 9.6-13.3 °C during the cold season and 24.7-27.9 °C during the warmest month. In contrast, today's climate of this area, with an annual temperature of 9.8 °C and 660 mm rainfall, is characterized by the winter season (mean temperature: -1.4 °C, mean precipitation: 39 mm) and a summer mean temperature of 19.9 °C (mean precipitation: 84 mm).Different modes of environmental shifts shaped the composition of the vegetation. Within few millennia, marshes and salt marshes with abundant Cyperaceae rapidly graded into Taxodiaceae swamps. This quick but gradual process was interrupted by swift marine ingressions which took place on a decadal to centennial scale. The transgression is accompanied by blooms of dinoflagellates and of the green alga Prasinophyta and an increase in Abies and Picea. Afterwards, the retreat of the sea and the progradation of estuarine and wetland settings were a gradual progress again.Despite a clear sedimentological cyclicity, which is related to the 21-kyr precessional forcing, the climate data show little variation. This missing pattern might be due to the buffering of the precessional-related climate signal by the subtropical vegetation. Another explanation could be the method-inherent broad range of climate-parameter estimates that could cover small scale climatic changes.     

Impacts of simulated climate change and fungal symbionts on survival and growth of a foundation species in sand dunes

For many ecosystems, one of the primary avenues of climate impact may be through changes to foundation species, which create habitats and sustain ecosystem services. For plants, microbial symbionts can often act as mutualists under abiotic stress and may mediate foundational plant responses to climate change. We manipulated the presence of endophytes in Ammophila breviligulata, a foundational sand dune species, to evaluate their potential to influence plant responses to climate change. We simulated projected climate change scenarios for temperature and precipitation using a growth chamber experiment. A 5 °C increase in temperature relative to current climate in northern Michigan reduced A. breviligulata survival by 45 %. Root biomass of A. breviligulata, which is critical to dune stabilization, was also strongly reduced by temperature. Plants inoculated with the endophyte had 14 % higher survival than endophyte-free plants. Contrary to our prediction, endophyte symbiosis did not alter the magnitude or direction of the effects of climate manipulations on A. breviligulata survival. However, in the absence of the endophyte, an increase in temperature increased the number of sand grains bound by roots by 80 %, while in symbiotic plants sand adherence did not significantly respond to temperature. Thus, plant–endophyte symbiosis actually negated the benefits in ecosystem function gained under a warmer climate. This study suggests that heat stress related to climate change in the Great Lakes may compromise the ability of A. breviligulata to stabilize dune ecosystems and reduce carbon storage and organic matter build-up in these early-successional systems due to reduced plant survival and root growth.     

中国东北多年冻土区植被生长季NDVI时空变化及其对气候变化的响应

多年冻土对气候变化十分敏感,尤其是多年冻土上的植被,易受气候变化影响.东北多年冻土区位于北半球中、高纬度地区,是我国第二大多年冻土区,同时也是欧亚大陆多年冻土带的南缘.本文基于1981—2014年LTDR和MODIS 两种数据集对东北多年冻土区植被生长季归一化植被指数(NDVI)时空变化特征进行分析,同时结合气象数据,分析植被对气候变化的响应.结果表明: 研究期间,东北多年冻土区植被生长季平均NDVI呈显著增加趋势,年增加0.0036.空间逐像元NDVI变化趋势具有明显的空间异质性. 研究区80.6%区域的植被NDVI具有显著增加趋势(P<0.05),7.7%的区域呈显著减少趋势(P<0.05).不同类型多年冻土区的植被NDVI增加强度不同,依次为连续多年冻土区>不连续多年冻土区>稀疏岛状多年冻土区>季节冻土区,NDVI增加趋势最大值(>0.004)所占的面积比例依次为连续多年冻土区>不连续多年冻土区>稀疏岛状多年冻土区>季节冻土区.多年冻土全区尺度下,植被生长季NDVI与平均气温呈显著正相关关系(r=0.79,P<0.01),与降水呈较弱的负相关,表明气温是东北多年冻土区植被生长的主控因子.研究区的多年冻土退化对植被生长起到积极的促进作用,尤其是在连续多年冻土区和不连续多年冻土区,植被NDVI增加强度更为剧烈.尽管增加的地表温度可以加快植被生长、增加植被覆盖,但长期来看,多年冻土退化甚至消失会阻碍植被生长.     

Distribution of clonal growth traits among wetland habitats

Clonality resulting from the growth of specialized organs is common among plants in wetland habitats. We hypothesize that different wetland habitats select for different attributes of clonal traits. This hypothesis is based on studies of individual species but has not been previously tested at the level of habitat. We compared the functional diversity of clonal growth traits of plants in bogs, fens, wet heathlands, floodplains, river beds, open fresh water habitats, salt marshes, and open marine habitats. Clonal traits (including number of offspring, lateral spread, persistence of connections between ramets, and shoot life span) were analysed with multivariate techniques using species frequency data and with permutation tests using presence/absence data. Based on species frequencies, clonal plants in aquatic habitats (open fresh water habitats, open marine habitats, and river beds) were characterized by the abundant production of freely dispersible propagules, annual shoots, and splitting clones. Species of daily flooded salt marshes were characterized by bi-annual connections between ramets and medium dispersability. In contrast, plants in permanently wet bogs were characterized by polycyclic shoots and low offspring production. The specificity of river beds and open freshwater habitats was also confirmed by permutation tests, which gave equal weight to rare and abundant species. However, species in all other wetland habitats were characterized by the entire range of clonal traits, suggesting weak environmental filtering of analyzed traits by habitat at the present scale.     

Embryonic developmental rates of northern grasshoppers (Orthoptera: Acrididae): implications for climate change and habitat management

Accurate models of temperature-dependent embryonic developmental rates are important to assess the effects of a changing climate on insect life cycles and to suggest methods of population management by habitat manipulation. Embryonic development determines the life cycle of many species of grasshoppers, which, in cold climates, spend two winters in the egg stage. Increasing temperatures associated with climate change in the subarctic could potentiate a switch to a univoltine life cycle. However, egg hatch could be delayed by maintaining a closed vegetative canopy, which would lower soil temperatures by shading the soil surface. Prediapause and postdiapause embryonic developmental rates were measured in the laboratory over a wide range of temperatures for Melanoplus borealis Fieber and Melanoplus sanguinipes F. (Orthoptera: Acrididae) A model was fit to the data and used to predict dates of egg hatch in the spring and prediapause development in the fall under different temperature regimens. Actual soil temperatures were recorded at several locations over 5 yr. To simulate climate warming, 2, 3, or 4°C was added to each hourly recorded temperature. Results suggest that a 2, 3, or 4°C increase in soil temperatures will result in eggs hatching ≈ 3, 5, or 7 d earlier, respectively. An increase of 3°C would be required to advance prediapause development enough to allow for a portion of the population to be univoltine in warmer years. To simulate shading, 2 and 4°C were subtracted from observed temperatures. A 4°C decrease in temperatures could potentially delay hatch by 8 d.     

Indicator plant species selection for monitoring the impact of climate change based on prediction uncertainty

To develop a long-term volunteer-based system for monitoring the impacts of climate change on plant distributions, potential indicator plants and monitoring sites were assessed considering habitat prediction uncertainty. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to project potential habitats for 19 popular edible wild plants in Japan. Prediction uncertainties of SDMs were assessed using three high-performance modeling algorithms and 19 simulated future climate data. SDMs were developed using presence/absence records, four climatic variables, and five non-climatic variables. The results showed that prediction uncertainties for future climate simulations were greater than those from the three different modeling algorithms. Among the 19 edible wild plant species, six had highly accurate SDMs and greater changes in occurrence probabilities between current and future climate conditions. The potential habitats of these six plants under future climate simulations tended to shift northward and upward, with predicted losses in potential southern habitats. These results suggest that these six plants are candidate indicators for long-term biological monitoring of the impacts of climate change. If temperature continuously increases as predicted, natural populations of these plants will decline in Kyushu, Chugoku and Shikoku districts, and in low altitudes of Chubu and Tohoku districts. These results also indicate the importance of occurrence probability and prediction uncertainty of SDMs for selecting target species and site locations for monitoring programs. Sasa kurilensis, a very popular and widespread dominant scrub bamboo in the cool-temperate regions of Japan, was found to be the most effective plant for monitoring.     

Effect of temperature on the progamic phase in high-mountain plants

Progamic processes are particularly temperature-sensitive and, in lowland plants, are usually drastically reduced below 10 °C and above 30 °C. Little is known about how effectively sexual processes of mountain plants function under the large temperature fluctuations at higher altitudes. The present study examines duration and thermal thresholds for progamic processes in six common plant species (Cerastium uniflorum, Gentianella germanica, Ranunculus alpestris, R. glacialis, Saxifraga bryoides, S. caesia) from different altitudinal zones in the European Alps. Whole plants were collected from natural sites shortly before anthesis and kept in a climate chamber until further processing. Flowers with receptive stigmas were hand-pollinated with allopollen and exposed to controlled temperatures between -2 and 40 °C. Pollen performance (adhesion to the stigma, germination, tube growth, fertilisation) was quantitatively analysed, using the aniline blue fluorescence method. Pollen adhesion was possible from -2 to 40 °C. Pollen germination and tube growth occurred from around 0 to 35 °C in most species. Fertilisation was observed from 5 to 30-32 °C (0-35 °C in G. germanica). The progamic phase was shortest in G. germanica (2 h at 30 °C, 12 h at 5 °C, 24 h at 0 °C), followed by R. glacialis (first fertilisation after 2 h at 30 °C, 18 h at 5 °C). In the remaining species, first fertilisation usually occurred after 4-6 h at 30 °C and after 24-30 h at 5 °C. Thus, mountain plants show remarkably flexible pollen performance over a wide temperature range and a short progamic phase, which may be essential for successful reproduction in the stochastic high-mountain climate.     

Temperature requirements of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar, brown trout Salmo trutta and Arctic charr Salvelinus alpinus: predicting the effects of climate change

Atlantic salmon Salmo salar, brown trout Salmo trutta (including the anadromous form, sea trout) and Arctic charr Salvelinus alpinus (including anadromous fish) provide important commercial and sports fisheries in Western Europe. As water temperature increases as a result of climate change, quantitative information on the thermal requirements of these three species is essential so that potential problems can be anticipated by those responsible for the conservation and sustainable management of the fisheries and the maintenance of biodiversity in freshwater ecosystems. Part I compares the temperature limits for survival, feeding and growth. Salmo salar has the highest temperature tolerance, followed by S. trutta and finally S. alpinus. For all three species, the temperature tolerance for alevins is slightly lower than that for parr and smolts, and the eggs have the lowest tolerance; this being the most vulnerable life stage to any temperature increase, especially for eggs of S. alpinus in shallow water. There was little evidence to support local thermal adaptation, except in very cold rivers (mean annual temperature <6·5° C). Part II illustrates the importance of developing predictive models, using data from a long-term study (1967-2000) of a juvenile anadromous S. trutta population. Individual-based models predicted the emergence period for the fry. Mean values over 34 years revealed a large variation in the timing of emergence with c. 2 months between extreme values. The emergence time correlated significantly with the North Atlantic Oscillation Index, indicating that interannual variations in emergence were linked to more general changes in climate. Mean stream temperatures increased significantly in winter and spring at a rate of 0·37° C per decade, but not in summer and autumn, and led to an increase in the mean mass of pre-smolts. A growth model for S. trutta was validated by growth data from the long-term study and predicted growth under possible future conditions. Small increases (<2·5° C) in winter and spring would be beneficial for growth with 1 year-old smolts being more common. Water temperatures would have to increase by c. 4° C in winter and spring, and 3° C in summer and autumn before they had a marked negative effect on trout growth.     

Daily average temperature and mortality among the elderly: a meta-analysis and systematic review of epidemiological evidence

The impact of climate change on the health of vulnerable groups such as the elderly has been of increasing concern. However, to date there has been no meta-analysis of current literature relating to the effects of temperature fluctuations upon mortality amongst the elderly. We synthesised risk estimates of the overall impact of daily mean temperature on elderly mortality across different continents. A comprehensive literature search was conducted using MEDLINE and PubMed to identify papers published up to December 2010. Selection criteria including suitable temperature indicators, endpoints, study-designs and identification of threshold were used. A two-stage Bayesian hierarchical model was performed to summarise the percent increase in mortality with a 1°C temperature increase (or decrease) with 95% confidence intervals in hot (or cold) days, with lagged effects also measured. Fifteen studies met the eligibility criteria and almost 13 million elderly deaths were included in this meta-analysis. In total, there was a 2-5% increase for a 1°C increment during hot temperature intervals, and a 1-2 % increase in all-cause mortality for a 1°C decrease during cold temperature intervals. Lags of up to 9 days in exposure to cold temperature intervals were substantially associated with all-cause mortality, but no substantial lagged effects were observed for hot intervals. Thus, both hot and cold temperatures substantially increased mortality among the elderly, but the magnitude of heat-related effects seemed to be larger than that of cold effects within a global context.     

Native and alien floras in urban habitats: a comparison across 32 cities of central Europe

Aim To determine relative effects of habitat type, climate and spatial pattern on species richness and composition of native and alien plant assemblages in central European cities. Location Central Europe, Belgium and the Netherlands. Methods The diversity of native and alien flora was analysed in 32 cities. In each city, plant species were recorded in seven 1‐ha plots that represented seven urban habitat types with specific disturbance regimes. Plants were classified into native species, archaeophytes (introduced before ad 1500) and neophytes (introduced later). Two sets of explanatory variables were obtained for each city: climatic data and all‐scale spatial variables generated by analysis of principal coordinates of neighbour matrices. For each group of species, the effect of habitat type, climate and spatial variables on variation in species composition was determined by variation partitioning. Responses of individual plant species to climatic variables were tested using a set of binomial regression models. Effects of climatic variables on the proportion of alien species were determined by linear regression. Results In all cities, 562 native plant species, 188 archaeophytes and 386 neophytes were recorded. Proportions of alien species varied among urban habitats. The proportion of native species decreased with increasing range and mean annual temperature, and increased with increasing precipitation. In contrast, proportions of archaeophytes and neophytes increased with mean annual temperature. However, spatial pattern explained a larger proportion of variation in species composition of the urban flora than climate. Archaeophytes were more uniformly distributed across the studied cities than the native species and neophytes. Urban habitats rich in native species also tended to be rich in archaeophytes and neophytes. Main conclusions Species richness and composition of central European urban floras are significantly affected by urban habitat types, climate and spatial pattern. Native species, archaeophytes and neophytes differ in their response to these factors.     

Methanogenic activity and biomass in Holocene permafrost deposits of the Lena Delta, Siberian Arctic and its implication for the global methane budget

Permafrost environments within the Siberian Arctic are natural sources of the climate relevant trace gas methane. In order to improve our understanding of the present and future carbon dynamics in high latitudes, we studied the methane concentration, the quantity and quality of organic matter, and the activity and biomass of the methanogenic community in permafrost deposits. For these investigations a permafrost core of Holocene age was drilled in the Lena Delta (72°22′N, 126°28′E). The organic carbon of the permafrost sediments varied between 0.6% and 4.9% and was characterized by an increasing humification index with permafrost depth. A high CH₄ concentration was found in the upper 4 m of the deposits, which correlates well with the methanogenic activity and archaeal biomass (expressed as PLEL concentration). Even the incubation of core material at −3 and −6°C with and without substrates showed a significant CH₄ production (range: 0.04–0.78 nmol CH₄ h⁻¹ g⁻¹). The results indicated that the methane in Holocene permafrost deposits of the Lena Delta originated from modern methanogenesis by cold‐adapted methanogenic archaea. Microbial generated methane in permafrost sediments is so far an underestimated factor for the future climate development.