On the parameter estimation for diffusion models of single neuron's activities

 For the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck neuronal model a quantitative method is proposed for the estimation of the two parameters characterizing the unkown input process, namely the neuron’s mean input per unit time μ and the infinitesimal standard deviation per unit time σ. This method is based on the experimentally observed first- and second-order moments of interspike intervals. The dependence of the estimates μ^ and σ^ on the moments of the observed interspike intervals and on the neuronal parameters is clarified, and a comparison is made between the estimates based on the classical Wiener model and those yielded by the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model. Comprehensive tables are included in which the displayed values of μ^ and σ^ have been calculated in terms of physiologically realistic pairs of first- and second-order moments. Our method is finally applied to interspike interval data recorded from neurons in the mesencephalic reticular formation of the cat during hypothetical sleep, slow-wave sleep stage, and wake stage. Received: 10 October 1994/Accepted in revised form: 21 March 1995     

A Bayesian framework for parameter estimation in dynamical models

Mathematical models in biology are powerful tools for the study and exploration of complex dynamics. Nevertheless, bringing theoretical results to an agreement with experimental observations involves acknowledging a great deal of uncertainty intrinsic to our theoretical representation of a real system. Proper handling of such uncertainties is key to the successful usage of models to predict experimental or field observations. This problem has been addressed over the years by many tools for model calibration and parameter estimation. In this article we present a general framework for uncertainty analysis and parameter estimation that is designed to handle uncertainties associated with the modeling of dynamic biological systems while remaining agnostic as to the type of model used. We apply the framework to fit an SIR-like influenza transmission model to 7 years of incidence data in three European countries: Belgium, the Netherlands and Portugal.     

On parameter estimation in population models

We describe methods for estimating the parameters of Markovian population processes in continuous time, thus increasing their utility in modelling real biological systems. A general approach, applicable to any finite-state continuous-time Markovian model, is presented, and this is specialised to a computationally more efficient method applicable to a class of models called density-dependent Markov population processes. We illustrate the versatility of both approaches by estimating the parameters of the stochastic SIS logistic model from simulated data. This model is also fitted to data from a population of Bay checkerspot butterfly (Euphydryas editha bayensis), allowing us to assess the viability of this population.     

A hybrid approach for efficient and robust parameter estimation in biochemical pathways

Developing suitable dynamic models of biochemical pathways is a key issue in Systems Biology. Predictive models for cells or whole organisms could ultimately lead to model-based predictive and/or preventive medicine. Parameter estimation (i.e. model calibration) in these dynamic models is therefore a critical problem. In a recent contribution [Moles, C.G., Mendes, P., Banga, J.R., 2003b. Parameter estimation in biochemical pathways: a comparison of global optimisation methods. Genome Res. 13, 2467-2474], the challenging nature of such inverse problems was highlighted considering a benchmark problem, and concluding that only a certain type of stochastic global optimisation method, Evolution Strategies (ES), was able to solve it successfully, although at a rather large computational cost. In this new contribution, we present a new integrated optimisation methodology with a number of very significant improvements: (i) computation time is reduced by one order of magnitude by means of a hybrid method which increases efficiency while guaranteeing robustness, (ii) measurement noise (errors) and partial observations are handled adequately, (iii) automatic testing of identifiability of the model (both local and practical) is included and (iv) the information content of the experiments is evaluated via the Fisher information matrix, with subsequent application to design of new optimal experiments through dynamic optimisation.     

A variational approach to parameter estimation in ordinary differential equations

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Ordinary differential equations are widely-used in the field of systems biology andchemical engineering to model chemical reaction networks. Numerous techniques havebeen developed to estimate parameters like rate constants, initial conditions or steady stateconcentrations from time-resolved data. In contrast to this countable set of parameters, theestimation of entire courses of network components corresponds to an innumerable set ofparameters. RESULTS: The approach presented in this work is able to deal with course estimation for extrinsicsystem inputs or intrinsic reactants, both not being constrained by the reaction networkitself. Our method is based on variational calculus which is carried out analytically toderive an augmented system of differential equations including the unconstrainedcomponents as ordinary state variables. Finally, conventional parameter estimation isapplied to the augmented system resulting in a combined estimation of courses andparameters. CONCLUSIONS: The combined estimation approach takes the uncertainty in input courses correctly intoaccount. This leads to precise parameter estimates and correct confidence intervals. Inparticular this implies that small motifs of large reaction networks can be analysedindependently of the rest. By the use of variational methods, elements from control theoryand statistics are combined allowing for future transfer of methods between the two fields.     

Robust parameter estimation techniques for stochastic within-host macroparasite models

We present a stochastic model of the within-host population dynamics of lymphatic filariasis, and use a simulated goodness-of-fit (GOF) method to estimate immunological parameters and their confidence intervals from experimental data. A variety of deterministic moment closure approximations to the stochastic system are explored and compared with simulation results. For the maximum GOF parameter estimates, none of the methods of closure accurately reproduce the behaviour of the stochastic model. However, direct analysis of the stochastic model demonstrates that the high levels of variation observed in the data can be reproduced without requiring parameters to vary between hosts. This indicates that the observed aggregation of parasite load may be dynamically generated by random variation in the development of an effective immune response against parasite larvae.     

CADLIVE optimizer: web-based parameter estimation for dynamic models

ABSTRACT: Computer simulation has been an important technique to capture the dynamics of biochemical networks. In most networks, however, few kinetic parameters have been measured in vivo because of experimental complexity. We develop a kinetic parameter estimation system, named the CADLIVE Optimizer, which comprises genetic algorithms-based solvers with a graphical user interface. This optimizer is integrated into the CADLIVE Dynamic Simulator to attain efficient simulation for dynamic models.     

Optimal experiment selection for parameter estimation in biological differential equation models

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Parameter estimation in biological models is a common yet challenging problem. In this work we explore the problem for gene regulatory networks modeled by differential equations with unknown parameters, such as decay rates, reaction rates, Michaelis-Menten constants, and Hill coefficients. We explore the question to what extent parameters can be efficiently estimated by appropriate experimental selection. RESULTS: A minimization formulation is used to find the parameter values that best fit the experiment data. When the data is insufficient, the minimization problem often has many local minima that fit the data reasonably well. We show that selecting a new experiment based on the local Fisher Information of one local minimum generates additional data that allows one to successfully discriminate among the many local minima. The parameters can be estimated to high accuracy by iteratively performing minimization and experiment selection. We show that the experiment choices are roughly independent of which local minima is used to calculate the local Fisher Information. CONCLUSIONS: We show that by an appropriate choice of experiments, one can, in principle, efficiently and accurately estimate all the parameters of gene regulatory network. In addition, we demonstrate that appropriate experiment selection can also allow one to restrict model predictions without constraining the parameters using many fewer experiments. We suggest that predicting model behaviors and inferring parameters represent two different approaches to model calibration with different requirements on data and experimental cost.     

Efficient parameter estimation in multiresponse models measuring radioactivity retention

Radiation and Environmental Biophysics - After incorporation of radioactive substances, workers are routinely checked by bioassays (isotopic activity excreted via urine, measurements of...     

Determination of parameter identifiability in nonlinear biophysical models: A Bayesian approach

A major goal of biophysics is to understand the physical mechanisms of biological molecules and systems. Mechanistic models are evaluated based on their ability to explain carefully controlled experiments. By fitting models to data, biophysical parameters that cannot be measured directly can be estimated from experimentation. However, it might be the case that many different combinations of model parameters can explain the observations equally well. In these cases, the model parameters are not identifiable: the experimentation has not provided sufficient constraining power to enable unique estimation of their true values. We demonstrate that this pitfall is present even in simple biophysical models. We investigate the underlying causes of parameter non-identifiability and discuss straightforward methods for determining when parameters of simple models can be inferred accurately. However, for models of even modest complexity, more general tools are required to diagnose parameter non-identifiability. We present a method based in Bayesian inference that can be used to establish the reliability of parameter estimates, as well as yield accurate quantification of parameter confidence.     

Computational models of epileptiform activity in single neurons

A series of original computational models written in NEURON of increasing physiological and morphological complexity were developed to determine the dominant causes of epileptiform behavior. Current injections to a model hippocampal pyramidal neuron consisting of three compartments produced the sustained depolarizations (SD) and simple paroxysmal depolarizing shifts (PDS) characteristic of ictal and interictal behavior in a cell, respectively. Our results indicate that SDs are the result of the semi-saturation of Na+, Ca2+ and K+ active channels, particularly the CaN, with regular Na+/K+ spikes riding atop a saturated depolarization; PDS rides on a similar semi-saturated depolarization whose shape depends more heavily on interactions between low-threshold voltage-gated Ca2+ channels (CaT) and Ca(2+)-dependent K+ channels. Our results reflect and predict recent physiological data, and we report here a cellular basis of epilepsy whose mechanisms reside mainly in the membrane channels, and not in specific morphology or network interactions, advancing a possible resolution to the cellular/network debate over the etiology of epileptiform activity.     

A general method for biological parameter estimation

Summary A general observer-based estimator method is developed and applied for process modelling and monitoring. This parameter estimation technique was successfully applied to a L-lysine fermentation process. It was a useful tool to detect the effect of major culture conditions on cell growth and product synthesis. It can also be used for the development of adaptive optimal control schemes.     

A methodology for parameter estimation in seaweed productivity modelling

This paper presents a combined approach for parameter estimation in models of primary production. The focus is on gross primary production and nutrient assimilation by seaweeds.A database of productivity determinations, biomass and mortality measurements and nutrient uptake rates obtained over one year for Gelidium sesquipedale in the Atlantic Ocean off Portugal has been used. Annual productivity was estimated by harvesting methods, and empirical relationships using mortality/wave energy and respiration rates have been derived to correct for losses and to convert the estimates to gross production. In situ determinations of productivity have been combined with data on the light climate (radiation periods, intensity, mean turbidity) to give daily and annual productivity estimates. The theoretical nutrient uptake calculated using a Redfield ratio approach and determinations of in situ N and P consumption by the algae during incubation periods have also been compared.The results of the biomass difference and incubation approaches are discussed in order to assess the utility of coefficients determined in situ for parameter estimation in seaweed production models.     

An evolutionary computing approach for parameter estimation investigation of a model for cholera

We consider the problem of using time-series data to inform a corresponding deterministic model and introduce the concept of genetic algorithms (GA) as a tool for parameter estimation, providing instructions for an implementation of the method that does not require access to special toolboxes or software. We give as an example a model for cholera, a disease for which there is much mechanistic uncertainty in the literature. We use GA to find parameter sets using available time-series data from the introduction of cholera in Haiti and we discuss the value of comparing multiple parameter sets with similar performances in describing the data.     

A practical approach to parameter estimation applied to model predicting heart rate regulation

Mathematical models have long been used for prediction of dynamics in biological systems. Recently, several efforts have been made to render these models patient specific. One way to do so is to employ techniques to estimate parameters that enable model based prediction of observed quantities. Knowledge of variation in parameters within and between groups of subjects have potential to provide insight into biological function. Often it is not possible to estimate all parameters in a given model, in particular if the model is complex and the data is sparse. However, it may be possible to estimate a subset of model parameters reducing the complexity of the problem. In this study, we compare three methods that allow identification of parameter subsets that can be estimated given a model and a set of data. These methods will be used to estimate patient specific parameters in a model predicting baroreceptor feedback regulation of heart rate during head-up tilt. The three methods include: structured analysis of the correlation matrix, analysis via singular value decomposition followed by QR factorization, and identification of the subspace closest to the one spanned by eigenvectors of the model Hessian. Results showed that all three methods facilitate identification of a parameter subset. The “best” subset was obtained using the structured correlation method, though this method was also the most computationally intensive. Subsets obtained using the other two methods were easier to compute, but analysis revealed that the final subsets contained correlated parameters. In conclusion, to avoid lengthy computations, these three methods may be combined for efficient identification of parameter subsets.