How much have we learned about seasonality in tropical insect abundance since Wolda (1988)?

Seasonal patterns in climatic conditions affect the life cycles and temporal patterns in the abundance of most temperate insect species. In tropical regions where there is no winter season, the situation may be different. For a better understanding of the evolution of seasonal life cycles, and the dynamics affecting temporal patterns in abundance of tropical insect populations and assemblages, it is important to study the life cycles of tropical insects and the presence or absence of seasonality in relation to climatic conditions. By reviewing studies on temporal patterns of abundance, this article examines the patterns of seasonality in adult tropical forest insects and discusses the variation in such patterns in various forest types. Seasonal and aseasonal patterns were found to be common in tropical dry and wet regions, respectively. In wet regions, which lack a distinctive dry season, there exists a wide variety of temporal patterns in addition to aseasonal patterns: distinctively seasonal and supra‐annual fluctuations in some insect species. Some of the problems of hidden ecological mechanisms underlying seasonal patterns in abundance are discussed, and the definition of seasonality in temporal patterns of insect abundance at a particular stage in the life cycle is considered. Methodological problems are also discussed.     

The climatic drivers of long-term population changes in rainforest montane birds

Climate-driven biodiversity erosion is escalating at an alarming rate. The pressure imposed by climate change is exceptionally high in tropical ecosystems, where species adapted to narrow environmental ranges exhibit strong physiological constraints. Despite the observed detrimental effect of climate change on ecosystems at a global scale, our understanding of the extent to which multiple climatic drivers affect population dynamics is limited. Here, we disentangle the impact of different climatic stressors on 47 rainforest birds inhabiting the mountains of the Australian Wet Tropics using hierarchical population models. We estimate the effect of spatiotemporal changes in temperature, precipitation, heatwaves, droughts and cyclones on the population dynamics of rainforest birds between 2000 and 2016. We find a strong effect of warming and changes in rainfall patterns across the elevational-segregated bird communities, with lowland populations benefiting from increasing temperature and precipitation, while upland species show an inverse strong negative response to the same drivers. Additionally, we find a negative effect of heatwaves on lowland populations, a pattern associated with the observed distribution of these extreme events across elevations. In contrast, cyclones and droughts have a marginal effect on spatiotemporal changes in rainforest bird communities, suggesting a species-specific response unrelated to the elevational gradient. This study demonstrated the importance of unravelling the drivers of climate change impacts on population changes, providing significant insight into the mechanisms accelerating climate-induced biodiversity degradation.     

Weather, not climate, defines distributions of vagile bird species

Background

Accurate predictions of species distributions are essential for climate change impact assessments. However the standard practice of using long-term climate averages to train species distribution models might mute important temporal patterns of species distribution. The benefit of using temporally explicit weather and distribution data has not been assessed. We hypothesized that short-term weather associated with the time a species was recorded should be superior to long-term climate measures for predicting distributions of mobile species.

Methodology

We tested our hypothesis by generating distribution models for 157 bird species found in Australian tropical savannas (ATS) using modelling algorithm Maxent. The variable weather of the ATS supports a bird assemblage with variable movement patterns and a high incidence of nomadism. We developed “weather” models by relating climatic variables (mean temperature, rainfall, rainfall seasonality and temperature seasonality) from the three month, six month and one year period preceding each bird record over a 58 year period (1950–2008). These weather models were compared against models built using long-term (30 year) averages of the same climatic variables.

Conclusions

Weather models consistently achieved higher model scores than climate models, particularly for wide-ranging, nomadic and desert species. Climate models predicted larger range areas for species, whereas weather models quantified fluctuations in habitat suitability across months, seasons and years. Models based on long-term climate averages over-estimate availability of suitable habitat and species'' climatic tolerances, masking species potential vulnerability to climate change. Our results demonstrate that dynamic approaches to distribution modelling, such as incorporating organism-appropriate temporal scales, improves understanding of species distributions.     

Habitat‐dependent occupancy and movement in a migrant songbird highlights the importance of mangroves and forested lagoons in Panama and Colombia

Climate change is predicted to impact tropical mangrove forests due to decreased rainfall, sea‐level rise, and increased seasonality of flooding. Such changes are likely to influence habitat quality for migratory songbirds occupying mangrove wetlands during the tropical dry season. Overwintering habitat quality is known to be associated with fitness in migratory songbirds, yet studies have focused primarily on territorial species. Little is known about the ecology of nonterritorial species that may display more complex movement patterns within and among habitats of differing quality. In this study, we assess within‐season survival and movement at two spatio‐temporal scales of a nonterritorial overwintering bird, the prothonotary warbler (Protonotaria citrea), that depends on mangroves and tropical lowland forests. Specifically, we (a) estimated within‐patch survival and persistence over a six‐week period using radio‐tagged birds in central Panama and (b) modeled abundance and occupancy dynamics at survey points throughout eastern Panama and northern Colombia as the dry season progressed. We found that site persistence was highest in mangroves; however, the probability of survival did not differ among habitats. The probability of warbler occupancy increased with canopy cover, and wet habitats were least likely to experience local extinction as the dry season progressed. We also found that warbler abundance is highest in forests with the tallest canopies. This study is one of the first to demonstrate habitat‐dependent occupancy and movement in a nonterritorial overwintering migrant songbird, and our findings highlight the need to conserve intact, mature mangrove, and lowland forests.     

Pattern of changes in species diversity,structure and dynamics of forest ecosystems along latitudinal gradients in East Asia

We examined effects of seasonality of climate and dominant life form (evergreen/deciduous, broad-leaf/coniferous) together with energy condition on species diversity, forest structure, forest dynamics, and productivity of forest ecosystems by comparing the patterns of changes in these ecosystem attributes along altitudinal gradients in tropical regions without seasonality and along a latitudinal gradient from tropical to temperate regions in humid East Asia. We used warmth index (temperature sum during growing season, WI) as an index of energy condition common to both altitudinal and latitudinal gradients. There were apparent differences in patterns of changes in the ecosystem attributes in relation to WI among four forest formations that were classified according to dominant life form and climatic zone (tropical/temperate). Many of the ecosystem attributes—Fishers alpha of species-diversity indices, maximum tree height and stem density, productivity [increment rate of aboveground biomass (AGB)], and population and biomass turnover rates—changed sharply with WI in tropical and temperate evergreen broad-leaved forests, but did not change linearly or changed only loosely with WI in temperate deciduous broad-leaved and evergreen coniferous forests. Values of these ecosystem attributes in temperate deciduous broad-leaved and evergreen coniferous forests were higher (stem density was lower) than those in tropical and temperate evergreen broad-leaved forests under colder conditions (WI below 100°C). Present results indicate that seasonality of climate and resultant change in dominant life form work to buffer the effects of energy reduction on ecosystem attributes along latitudinal gradients.     

Space-for-time substitution reveals a hump-shaped distribution of dung beetles

Unraveling how climate change impacts the diversity and distribution patterns of organisms is a major concern in ecology, especially with climate-sensitive species, such as dung beetles. Often found in warmer weather conditions, beetles are used as bio-indicators of environmental conditions. By using an altitudinal gradient as a proxy for climate change (i.e., space-for-time substitution), we assessed how changes in climatic variables, such as temperature and precipitation, impact patterns of dung beetle diversity and distribution in the Peruvian Andes. We recorded dung beetle diversity using three different types of baits, feces, carrion, and fruits, distributed in 18 pitfall traps in five different altitudinal sites (from 900 to 2500 m, 400 m apart from each other) in the rainy and dry season. We found that (i) dung beetle richness and abundance were influenced by the climate gradient, (ii) seasonality influenced beetle richness, which was high in the wet season, but did not influence abundance, (iii) dung beetle richness and abundance fit to a hump-shaped distribution pattern along the altitudinal gradient, and (iv) species richness is the beta-diversity component that best describes the composition of dung beetle species along the altitudinal gradient. Our data show that the distribution and diversity of dung beetles are different at larger scales, with different patterns resulting from the response of species to both abiotic and biotic factors.     

Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?

Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum), an introduced mosquito‐borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird–mosquito–malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline in bird abundance. Different temperature and precipitation patterns produce divergent trajectories where native birds persist with low malaria infection under a warmer and dryer projection (RCP4.5), but suffer high malaria infection and severe reductions under hot and dry (RCP8.5) or warm and wet (A1B) futures. We conclude that future global climate change will cause significant decreases in the abundance and diversity of remaining Hawaiian bird communities. Because these effects appear unlikely before mid‐century, natural resource managers have time to implement conservation strategies to protect this unique avifauna from further decimation. Similar climatic drivers for avian and human malaria suggest that mitigation strategies for Hawai'i have broad application to human health.     

Impacts of climate change on national biodiversity population trends

Climate change has had well‐documented impacts on the distribution and phenology of species across many taxa, but impacts on species’ abundance, which relates closely to extinction risk and ecosystem function, have not been assessed across taxa. In the most comprehensive multi‐taxa comparison to date, we modelled variation in national population indices of 501 mammal, bird, aphid, butterfly and moth species as a function of annual variation in weather variables, which through time allowed us to identify a component of species’ population growth that can be associated with post‐1970s climate trends. We found evidence that these climate trends have significantly affected population trends of 15.8% of species, including eight with extreme (> 30% decline per decade) negative trends consistent with detrimental impacts of climate change. The modelled effect of climate change could explain 48% of the significant across‐species population decline in moths and 63% of the population increase in winged aphids. The other taxa did not have significant across‐species population trends or consistent climate change responses. Population declines in species of conservation concern were linked to both climatic and non‐climatic factors respectively accounting for 42 and 58% of the decline. Evident differential impacts of climate change between trophic levels may signal the potential for future ecosystem disruption. Climate change has therefore already driven large‐scale population changes of some species, had significant impacts on the overall abundance of some key invertebrate groups and may already have altered biological communities and ecosystems in Great Britain.     

Hydrological seasonality dictates fish fauna of the lower Araguaia River,Tocantins-Araguaia basin

Hydrological seasonality of flow dictates diversity in tropical aquatic ecosystems. Large tropical rivers and tributaries are typically more depth and shows increased flow velocity and area in flood than in dry season. A thorough analysis of seasonality effect on fish community structure can provide valuable information of major forces driving tropical communities. However, these types of analyses have been limited by poor knowledge of tropical diversity, human impacts on environment, and biased sampling methods. We used a pristine large tropical river (and tributaries) and five types (12 gill nets, beach seine nets, longlines, branch baited hooks, and cast nets) of fishing gears to present an evaluation of flow seasonality effect on fish community. We sampled fourteen sites in river channel and tributaries in the lower Araguaia River. Sampling was conducted in flood (March and May 2009) and dry (July and September 2009) seasons of a typical seasonal year. Species richness, Shannon Diversity and Evenness, mean similarity of binary data, and abundance (CPUE) were analyzed by PERMANOVA and PCoA. We also analyzed the species most correlated (by Spearman correlation rank) with flood and dry season. Features differed significantly between flood and dry seasons, but not between channel and tributaries. The composition and abundance of community, and the representative species of flood and dry changed quite along the year. Flood showed lotic-related species, and dry presented lentic-related species. Thus, we achieved an alternation of fish community between season, both for channel and tributaries.     

Forecasting the Effects of Land Use Scenarios on Farmland Birds Reveal a Potential Mitigation of Climate Change Impacts

Climate and land use changes are key drivers of current biodiversity trends, but interactions between these drivers are poorly modeled, even though they could amplify or mitigate negative impacts of climate change. Here, we attempt to predict the impacts of different agricultural change scenarios on common breeding birds within farmland included in the potential future climatic suitable areas for these species. We used the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) to integrate likely changes in species climatic suitability, based on species distribution models, and changes in area of farmland, based on the IMAGE model, inside future climatic suitable areas. We also developed six farmland cover scenarios, based on expert opinion, which cover a wide spectrum of potential changes in livestock farming and cropping patterns by 2050. We ran generalized linear mixed models to calibrate the effects of farmland cover and climate change on bird specific abundance within 386 small agricultural regions. We used model outputs to predict potential changes in bird populations on the basis of predicted changes in regional farmland cover, in area of farmland and in species climatic suitability. We then examined the species sensitivity according to their habitat requirements. A scenario based on extensification of agricultural systems (i.e., low-intensity agriculture) showed the greatest potential to reduce reverse current declines in breeding birds. To meet ecological requirements of a larger number of species, agricultural policies accounting for regional disparities and landscape structure appear more efficient than global policies uniformly implemented at national scale. Interestingly, we also found evidence that farmland cover changes can mitigate the negative effect of climate change. Here, we confirm that there is a potential for countering negative effects of climate change by adaptive management of landscape. We argue that such studies will help inform sustainable agricultural policies for the future.     

Sea turtle species vary in their susceptibility to tropical cyclones

Severe climatic events affect all species, but there is little quantitative knowledge of how sympatric species react to such situations. We compared the reproductive seasonality of sea turtles that nest sympatrically with their vulnerability to tropical cyclones (in this study, “tropical cyclone” refers to tropical storms and hurricanes), which are increasing in severity due to changes in global climate. Storm surges significantly decreased reproductive output by lowering the number of nests that hatched and the number of hatchlings that emerged from nests, but the severity of this effect varied by species. Leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) began nesting earliest and most offspring hatched before the tropical cyclone season arrived, resulting in little negative effect. Loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) nested intermediately, and only nests laid late in the season were inundated with seawater during storm surges. Green turtles (Chelonia mydas) nested last, and their entire nesting season occurred during the tropical cyclone season; this resulted in a majority (79%) of green turtle nests incubating in September, when tropical cyclones are most likely to occur. Since this timing overlaps considerably with the tropical cyclone season, the developing eggs and nests are extremely vulnerable to storm surges. Increases in the severity of tropical cyclones may cause green turtle nesting success to worsen in the future. However, published literature suggests that loggerhead turtles are nesting earlier in the season and shortening their nesting seasons in response to increasing sea surface temperatures caused by global climate change. This may cause loggerhead reproductive success to improve in the future because more nests will hatch before the onset of tropical cyclones. Our data clearly indicate that sympatric species using the same resources are affected differently by tropical cyclones due to slight variations in the seasonal timing of nesting, a key life history process.     

Warm temperatures during cold season can negatively affect adult survival in an alpine bird

Climate seasonality is a predominant constraint on the lifecycles of species in alpine and polar biomes. Assessing the response of these species to climate change thus requires taking into account seasonal constraints on populations. However, interactions between seasonality, weather fluctuations, and population parameters remain poorly explored as they require long‐term studies with high sampling frequency. This study investigated the influence of environmental covariates on the demography of a corvid species, the alpine chough Pyrrhocorax graculus, in the highly seasonal environment of the Mont Blanc region. In two steps, we estimated: (1) the seasonal survival of categories of individuals based on their age, sex, etc., (2) the effect of environmental covariates on seasonal survival. We hypothesized that the cold season—and more specifically, the end of the cold season (spring)—would be a critical period for individuals, and we expected that weather and individual covariates would influence survival variation during critical periods. We found that while spring was a critical season for adult female survival, it was not for males. This is likely because females are dominated by males at feeding sites during snowy seasons (winter and spring), and additionally must invest energy in egg production. When conditions were not favorable, which seemed to happen when the cold season was warmer than usual, females probably reached their physiological limits. Surprisingly, adult survival was higher at the beginning of the cold season than in summer, which may result from adaptation to harsh weather in alpine and polar vertebrates. This hypothesis could be confirmed by testing it with larger sets of populations. This first seasonal analysis of individual survival over the full life cycle in a sedentary alpine bird shows that including seasonality in demographic investigations is crucial to better understand the potential impacts of climate change on cold ecosystems.     

Liana abundance and diversity increase with rainfall seasonality along a precipitation gradient in Panama

In tropical regions, rainfall gradients often explain the abundance and distribution of plant species. For example, many tree and liana species adapted to seasonal drought are more abundant and diverse in seasonally-dry forests, characterized by long periods of seasonal water deficit. Mean annual precipitation (MAP) is commonly used to explain plant distributions across climate gradients. However, the relationship between MAP and plant distribution is often weak, raising the question of whether other seasonal precipitation patterns better explain plant distributions in seasonally-dry forests. In this study, we examine the relationship between liana abundance and multiple metrics of seasonal and annual rainfall distribution to test the hypothesis that liana density and diversity increase with increasing seasonal drought along a rainfall gradient across the isthmus of Panama. We found that a normalized seasonality index, which combines MAP and the variability of monthly rainfall throughout the year, was a significant predictor of both liana density and species richness, whereas MAP, rainfall seasonality and the mean dry season precipitation (MDP) were far weaker predictors. The strong response of lianas to the normalized seasonality index indicates that, in addition to the total annual amount of rainfall, how rainfall is distributed throughout the year is an important determinant of the hydrological conditions that favor liana proliferation. Our findings imply that changes in annual rainfall and rainfall seasonality will determine the future distribution and abundance of lianas. Models that aim to predict future plant diversity, distribution, and abundance may need to move beyond MAP to a more detailed understanding of rainfall variability at sub-annual timescales.     

Influence of climate change on the abundance, distribution and phenology of woodland bird species in temperate regions

There is now overwhelming evidence that an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere has caused global temperatures to increase by 0.6 °C since 1900 and further increases of between 1.4 and 5.8 °C are predicted over the next century. Changes in climatic conditions have already influenced the demography, phenology and distribution of a wide range of plant and animal taxa. This review focuses on the impacts, both observed and potential, of climate change on birds breeding in temperate woodlands of the Western Palaearctic, a significant proportion of which are currently declining. Changes in ambient temperatures and patterns of precipitation may have direct and indirect effects on the survival rates and productivity of bird species, thus influencing population sizes. For some species or populations, the timing of events such as egg-laying and return from the wintering grounds is also changing in relation to shifts in the peak of food availability during the breeding season. The degree to which different individuals are able to track these temporal changes will have a significant bearing on population sizes and distributions in the future. Unless active management steps are taken, the relatively low dispersal rates of tree species may lead to a decrease in the total area of some woodland habitat types as losses at the southern edge of the range are likely to occur much more quickly than expansion at the northern edge. In addition, the dispersal rates of many woodland birds are themselves low, which could affect their ability to move to new habitat patches if currently occupied areas become unsuitable. Thus, woodland birds may be particularly susceptible to the impacts of climate change.     

Environmental filtering increases in intensity at both ends of climatic gradients,though driven by different factors,across woody vegetation types of the southwest USA

Species distributions are theorized to be more intensively constrained by abiotic factors in severe than in benign environments. A similar concept can be applied to assemblages of species: environmental filtering is expected to increase in intensity in colder and drier environments. To assess the filtering effects of climate on vegetation at a regional scale, climate niche values were estimated for 338 woody species across 93 vegetation types from arid sub‐tropical to alpine ecosystems of the southwest USA. The standardized range and spacing of climatic niche values in each vegetation type – used as estimates of the intensity of climatic and micro‐environmental filtering, respectively – were correlated with the mean niche values of those vegetation types – used as surrogates for climatic gradients – in order to assess how filtering of vegetation composition varies along broad climatic gradients. The range of climatic niche values was narrower than expected in most vegetation types, indicating significant climatic filtering, with frost having the strongest average effect. Niche spacing differed little from null expectations. Variation in the intensity of climatic filtering along gradients of the same climate variable was primarily asymmetrical, and provided support for the hypothesis that abiotic filtering is most intense in cold and growing season dry environments. However, filtering patterns of at least one climatic factor along gradients of other climatic factors ran counter to the trend of increasing filter intensity in cold or dry environments. In other words, climatic factors exhibited interactive effects on vegetation filtering, often in antagonistic ways. The majority of these interactions were compatible with interspecific niche relationships that correspond with anatomical and physiological tradeoffs among drought, frost and heat tolerances. Filtering patterns and interspecific tradeoffs are likely to vary across taxa and biomes, and application of the methods presented here could help to explain such variation.     

Modelling changes in species’ abundance in response to projected climate change

Aim Existing climate envelope models give an indication of broad scale shifts in distribution, but do not specifically provide information on likely future population changes useful for conservation prioritization and planning. We demonstrate how these techniques can be developed to model likely future changes in absolute density and population size as a result of climate change. Location Great Britain. Methods Generalized linear models were used to model breeding densities of two northerly‐ and two southerly‐distributed bird species as a function of climate and land use. Models were built using count data from extensive national bird monitoring data and incorporated detectability to estimate absolute abundance. Projections of likely future changes in the distribution and abundance of these species were made by applying these models to projections of future climate change under two emissions scenarios. Results Models described current spatial variation in abundance for three of the four species and produced modelled current estimates of national populations that were similar to previously published estimates for all species. Climate change was projected to result in national population declines in the two northerly‐distributed species, with declines for Eurasian curlew Numenius arquata projected to be particularly severe. Conversely, the abundances of the two southerly distributed species were projected to increase nationally. Projected maps of future abundance may be used to identify priority areas for the future conservation of each species. Main conclusions The analytical methods provide a framework to make projections of impacts of climate change on species abundance, rather than simply projected range changes. Outputs may be summarized at any spatial scale, providing information to inform future conservation planning at national, regional and local scales. Results suggest that as a consequence of climate change, northerly distributed bird species in Great Britain are likely to become an increasingly high conservation priority within the UK.     

Differential response to abiotic stress controls species distributions at biogeographic transition zones

Understanding range limits is critical to predicting species responses to climate change. Subtropical environments, where many species overlap at their range margins, are cooler, more light‐limited and variable than tropical environments. It is thus likely that species respond variably to these multi‐stressor regimes and that factors other than mean climatic conditions drive biodiversity patterns. Here, we tested these hypotheses for scleractinian corals at their high‐latitude range limits in eastern Australia and investigated the role of mean climatic conditions and of parameters linked to abiotic stress in explaining the distribution and abundance of different groups of species. We found that environmental drivers varied among taxa and were predominantly linked to abiotic stress. The distribution and abundance of tropical species and gradients in species richness (alpha diversity) and turnover (beta diversity) were best explained by light limitation, whereas minimum temperatures and temperature fluctuations best explained gradients in subtropical species, species nestedness and functional diversity. Variation in community structure (considering species composition and abundance) was most closely linked to the combined thermal and light regime. Our study demonstrates the role of abiotic stress in controlling the distribution of species towards their high‐latitude range limits and suggests that, at biogeographic transition zones, robust predictions of the impacts of climate change require approaches that account for various aspects of physiological stress and for species abundances and characteristics. These findings support the hypothesis that abiotic stress controls high‐latitude range limits and caution that projections solely based on mean temperature could underestimate species’ vulnerabilities to climate change.     

Habitat conversion and global avian biodiversity loss

The magnitude of the impacts of human activities on global biodiversity has been documented at several organizational levels. However, although there have been numerous studies of the effects of local-scale changes in land use (e.g. logging) on the abundance of groups of organisms, broader continental or global-scale analyses addressing the same basic issues remain largely wanting. None the less, changing patterns of land use, associated with the appropriation of increasing proportions of net primary productivity by the human population, seem likely not simply to have reduced the diversity of life, but also to have reduced the carrying capacity of the environment in terms of the numbers of other organisms that it can sustain. Here, we estimate the size of the existing global breeding bird population, and then make a first approximation as to how much this has been modified as a consequence of land-use changes wrought by human activities. Summing numbers across different land-use classes gives a best current estimate of a global population of less than 100 billion breeding bird individuals. Applying the same methodology to estimates of original land-use distributions suggests that conservatively this may represent a loss of between a fifth and a quarter of pre-agricultural bird numbers. This loss is shared across a range of temperate and tropical land-use types.