A quantitative measure of migratory connectivity

The study of the extent of the connection between areas where populations of birds breed and areas where they winter has flourished in recent years mainly thanks to the development of new techniques, but also due to traditional ringing and recovery schemes, which allow tracking of individuals or populations linking wintering and breeding distributions. Currently, studies on migratory connectivity focus on retention of breeding population spatial structure on the non-breeding grounds and vice versa.Here we propose a method to quantify migratory connectivity based on Mantel correlation coefficients and to statistically test for deviations of the observed connectivity from a random mix of individuals. In addition, we propose a procedure, based on clustering algorithms, to identify whether observed connectivity depends on aggregation of individuals or on rigid transference of distribution patterns between areas.We applied this method to a large dataset of ringing recoveries of barn swallows (Hirundo rustica L) migrating from their Western Palearctic breeding areas to sub-Saharan winter quarters. We show that migration of barn swallow populations connects specific breeding and wintering areas, and that the “sub-populations” quantitatively identified by our method are consistent with qualitative patterns of migratory connectivity identified by studies of individual geographical populations based on other methods. Finally, we tested the performance of the method by running simulations under different scenarios. Such simulations showed that the method is robust and able to correctly detect migratory connectivity even with smaller datasets and when a strong geographical pattern is not present in the population. Our method provides a quantitative measure of migratory connectivity and allows for the identification of populations showing high connectivity between the breeding and wintering areas. This method is suitable for a generalized application to diverse animal taxa as well as to large scale analyses of connectivity for conservation purposes.     

Strong migratory connectivity and seasonally shifting isotopic niches in geographically separated populations of a long-distance migrating songbird

Whether migratory animals use similar resources during continental-scale movements that characterize their annual cycles is highly relevant to both individual performances and population dynamics. Direct knowledge of the locations and resources used by migrants during non-breeding is generally scarce. Our goal was to estimate migratory connectivity of a small Palaearctic long-distance migrant, the common nightingale Luscinia megarhynchos, and to compare resources used in non-breeding areas with resources used at the breeding grounds. We tracked individuals of three geographically separated populations and characterised their stable isotope niches during breeding and non-breeding over 2 years. Individuals spent the non-breeding period in population-specific clusters from west to central Africa, indicating strong migratory connectivity at the population level. Irrespective of origin, their isotopic niches were surprisingly similar within a particular period, although sites of residence were distant. However, niche characteristics differed markedly between breeding and non-breeding periods, indicating a consistent seasonal isotopic niche shift in the sampled populations. Although nightingales of distinct breeding populations migrated to different non-breeding areas, they chose similar foraging conditions within specific periods. However, nightingales clearly changed resource use between breeding and non-breeding periods, indicating adaptations to changes in food availability.     

Weak migratory connectivity,loop migration and multiple non-breeding site use in British breeding Whinchats Saxicola rubetra

Determining the links between breeding populations and the pressures, threats and conditions they experience presents a challenge for the conservation of migratory birds which can use multiple sites separated by hundreds to thousands of kilometres. Furthermore, migratory connectivity – the connections made by migrating individuals between networks of breeding and non-breeding sites – has important implications for population dynamics. The Whinchat Saxicola rubetra is declining across its range, and tracking data from a single African non-breeding site implies high migratory spread. We used geolocators to describe the migration routes and non-breeding areas of 20 Whinchats from three British breeding populations. As expected, migratory spread was high, with birds from the three populations overlapping across a wide area of West Africa. On average, in non-breeding areas, British breeding Whinchats were located 652 km apart from one another, with some likely to share non-breeding areas with individuals from breeding populations as far east as Russia. Four males made a direct non-breeding season movement to a second, more westerly, non-breeding location in January. Autumn migration was through Iberia and around the western edge of the Sahara Desert, whereas spring migration was more direct, indicating an anticlockwise loop migration. Weak migratory connectivity implies that Whinchat populations are somewhat buffered against local changes in non-breeding conditions. If non-breeding season processes have played a role in the species’ decline, then large-scale drivers are likely to be the cause, although processes operating on migration, or interactions between breeding and non-breeding processes, cannot be ruled out.     

Population-specific migratory strategies of Twite Linaria flavirostris in Western Europe

Migratory connectivity describes the extent to which different individuals from specific breeding populations use similar non-breeding sites, with important consequences for the demography and population structure of birds. We used mark-recapture data from the EUring data bank to describe the non-breeding range of Twite Linaria flavirostris within Western Europe. We quantified the strength of migratory connectivity across all European breeding populations, and for the British and continental breeding populations separately. Twite from different parts of the British breeding range used different non-breeding areas from one another, whereas Twite from different parts of the continental breeding range used similar non-breeding areas. There was essentially no overlap during the non-breeding season between British and continental Twite.     

Continent-wide tracking to determine migratory connectivity and tropical habitat associations of a declining aerial insectivore

North American birds that feed on flying insects are experiencing steep population declines, particularly long-distance migratory populations in the northern breeding range. We determine, for the first time, the level of migratory connectivity across the range of a songbird using direct tracking of individuals, and test whether declining northern populations have higher exposure to agricultural landscapes at their non-breeding grounds in South America. We used light-level geolocators to track purple martins, Progne subis, originating from North American breeding populations, coast-to-coast (n = 95 individuals). We show that breeding populations of the eastern subspecies, P. s. subis, that are separated by ca. 2000 km, nevertheless have almost completely overlapping non-breeding ranges in Brazil. Most (76%) P. s. subis overwintered in northern Brazil near the Amazon River, not in the agricultural landscape of southern Brazil. Individual non-breeding sites had an average of 91 per cent forest and only 4 per cent agricultural ground cover within a 50 km radius, and birds originating from declining northern breeding populations were not more exposed to agricultural landscapes than stable southern breeding populations. Our results show that differences in wintering location and habitat do not explain recent trends in breeding population declines in this species, and instead northern populations may be constrained in their ability to respond to climate change.     

Low and annually variable migratory connectivity in a long‐distance migrant: Whinchats Saxicola rubetra may show a bet‐hedging strategy

The spatial scale of non‐breeding areas used by long‐distance migrant animals can vary from specific, relatively small non‐breeding areas for each independent breeding population (high connectivity) to a distribution over a large non‐breeding area with mixing of breeding populations (low connectivity). Measuring variation in the degree of connectivity and how it arises is crucial to predict how migratory animals can respond to global habitat and climate change because low connectivity is likely to be an adaptation to environmental uncertainty. Here, we assess whether use of non‐breeding areas in a long‐distance migrant may be stochastic by measuring the degree of connectivity, and whether it is annually variable. Twenty‐nine wintering Whinchats tagged with geolocators over 2 years within 40 km² in central Nigeria were found to be breeding over 2.55 million km² (26% of the land area of Europe), without an asymptote being approached in the relationship between area and sample size. Ranges differed in size between years by 1.51 million km² and only 15% of the total breeding range across both years overlapped (8% overlap between years when only first‐year birds were considered), well above the range size difference and below the proportion of overlap that would be predicted from two equivalent groups breeding at random locations within the observed range. Mean distance between breeding locations (i.e. migratory spread) differed significantly between years (604 ± 18 km in 2013 and 869 ± 33 km in 2014). The results showed very low and variable connectivity that was reasonably robust to the errors and assumptions inherent in the use of geolocators, but with the caveat of having only ranges of 2 years to compare, and the sensitivity of range to the breeding locations of a small number of individuals. However, if representative, the results suggest the scope for between‐year variation (cohort effects) to determine migrant distribution on a large scale. Furthermore, for species with similarly low connectivity, we would predict breeding population trends to reflect average conditions across large non‐breeding areas: thus, as large areas of Africa become subject to habitat loss, migrant populations throughout Europe will decline.     

Light‐level geolocators reveal migratory connectivity in European populations of pied flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca

Understanding what drives or prevents long‐distance migrants to respond to environmental change requires basic knowledge about the wintering and breeding grounds, and the timing of movements between them. Both strong and weak migratory connectivity have been reported for Palearctic passerines wintering in Africa, but this remains unknown for most species. We investigated whether pied flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca from different breeding populations also differ in wintering locations in west‐Africa. Light‐level geolocator data revealed that flycatchers from different breeding populations travelled to different wintering sites, despite similarity in routes during most of the autumn migration. We found support for strong migratory connectivity showing an unexpected pattern: individuals breeding in Fennoscandia (S‐Finland and S‐Norway) wintered further west compared to individuals breeding at more southern latitudes in the Netherlands and SW‐United Kingdom. The same pattern was found in ring recovery data from sub‐Saharan Africa of individuals with confirmed breeding origin. Furthermore, population‐specific migratory connectivity was associated with geographical variation in breeding and migration phenology: birds from populations which breed and migrate earlier wintered further east than birds from ‘late’ populations. There was no indication that wintering locations were affected by geolocation deployment, as we found high repeatability and consistency in δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N stable isotope ratios of winter grown feathers of individuals with and without a geolocator. We discuss the potential ecological factors causing such an unexpected pattern of migratory connectivity. We hypothesise that population differences in wintering longitudes of pied flycatchers result from geographical variation in breeding phenology and the timing of fuelling for spring migration at the wintering grounds. Future research should aim at describing how temporal dynamics in food availability across the wintering range affects migration, wintering distribution and populations’ capacity to respond to environmental changes.     

Investigating connectivity and seasonal differences in wind assistance in the migration of Common Sandpipers

Many migratory bird species have undergone recent population declines, but there is considerable variation in trends between species and between populations employing different migratory routes. Understanding species-specific migratory behaviours is therefore of critical importance for their conservation. The Common Sandpiper Actitis hypoleucos is an Afro-Palaearctic migratory bird species whose European populations are in decline. We fitted geolocators to individuals breeding in England or wintering in Senegal to determine their migration routes and breeding or non-breeding locations. We used these geolocator data in combination with previously published data from Scottish breeding birds to determine the distributions and migratory connectivity of breeding (English and Scottish) and wintering (Senegalese) populations of the Common Sandpiper, and used simulated random migrations to investigate wind assistance during autumn and spring migration. We revealed that the Common Sandpipers tagged in England spent the winter in West Africa, and that at least some birds wintering in Senegal bred in Scandinavia; this provides insights into the links between European breeding populations and their wintering grounds. Furthermore, birds tagged in England, Scotland and Senegal overlapped considerably in their migration routes and wintering locations, meaning that local breeding populations could be buffered against habitat change, but susceptible to large-scale environmental changes. These findings also suggest that contrasting population trends in England and Scotland are unlikely to be the result of population-specific migration routes and wintering regions. Finally, we found that birds used wind to facilitate their migration in autumn, but less so in spring, when the wind costs associated with their migrations were higher than expected at random. This was despite the wind costs of simulated migrations being significantly lower in spring than in autumn. Indeed, theory suggests that individuals are under greater time pressures in spring than in autumn because of the time constraints associated with reproduction.     

Cross‐continental migratory connectivity and spatiotemporal migratory patterns in the great reed warbler

Migratory connectivity describes to which degree different breeding populations have distinct (non‐overlapping) non‐breeding sites. Uncovering the level of migratory connectivity is crucial for effective conservation actions and for understanding of the evolution of local adaptations and migratory routes. Here we investigate migration patterns in a passerine bird, the great reed warbler Acrocephalus arundinaceus, over its wide Western Palearctic breeding range using geolocators from Spain, Sweden, Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Turkey. We found moderate migratory connectivity: a highly significant spatial structure in the connections between breeding and sub‐Saharan non‐breeding grounds, but at the same time a partial overlap between individual populations, particularly along the Gulf of Guinea where the majority of birds from the Spanish, Swedish and Czech populations spent their non‐breeding period. The post‐breeding migration routes were similar in direction and rather parallel for the five populations. Birds from Turkey showed the most distinctive migratory routes and sub‐Saharan non‐breeding range, with a post‐breeding migration to east Africa and, together with birds from Bulgaria, a previously unknown pre‐breeding migration over the Arabian Peninsula indicating counter‐clockwise loop migration. The distances between breeding and sub‐Saharan non‐breeding sites, as well as between first and final sub‐Saharan non‐breeding sites, differed among populations. However, the total speed of migration did not differ significantly between populations; neither during post‐breeding migration in autumn, nor pre‐breeding migration in spring. There was also no significant relationship between the total speed of migration and distance between breeding and non‐breeding sites (neither post‐ nor pre‐breeding) and, surprisingly, the total speed of migration generally did not differ significantly between post‐breeding and pre‐breeding migration. Future challenges include understanding whether non‐breeding environmental conditions may have influenced the differences in migratory patterns that we observed between populations, and to which extent non‐breeding habitat fluctuations and loss may affect population sizes of migrants.     

Birds of a feather winter together: migratory connectivity in the Reed Warbler Acrocephalus scirpaceus

To investigate migratory connectivity in the Reed Warbler Acrocephalus scirpaceus, we analysed (1) all available sub-Saharan ringing recoveries and (2) stable isotopes in feathers grown in Africa sampled at 17 European breeding sites across a migratory divide. A cluster analysis of ringing recoveries showed remarkable connectivity between breeding and non-breeding grounds. Two main clusters represented populations taking the two main migratory routes [southwesterly (SW) and southeasterly (SE)]. Stable isotope analysis confirmed the separation of wintering areas of SW- and SE-migrating populations. Higher δ¹⁵N values in feathers of SE-migrating birds indicated that they occupied more xeric biome types. Values of δ¹³C that did not differ significantly among populations were higher than those from feathers of known European origin and indicated a C4 biome. Three populations with an unknown migratory direction were assigned to the SE-migrating populations on the basis of δ¹⁵N values.     

Transcontinental migratory connectivity predicts parasite prevalence in breeding populations of the European barn swallow

Parasites exert a major impact on the eco‐evolutionary dynamics of their hosts and the associated biotic environment. Migration constitutes an effective means for long‐distance invasions of vector‐borne parasites and promotes their rapid spread. Yet, ecological and spatial information on population‐specific host–parasite connectivity is essentially lacking. Here, we address this question in a system consisting of a transcontinental migrant species, the European barn swallow (Hirundo rustica) which serves as a vector for avian endoparasites in the genera Plasmodium, Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon. Using feather stable isotope ratios as geographically informative markers, we first assessed migratory connectivity in the host: Northern European breeding populations predominantly overwintered in dry, savannah‐like habitats in Southern Africa, whereas Southern European populations were associated with wetland habitats in Western Central Africa. Wintering areas of swallows breeding in Central Europe indicated a migratory divide with both migratory programmes occurring within the same breeding population. Subsequent genetic screens of parasites in the breeding populations revealed a link between the host's migratory programme and its parasitic repertoire: controlling for effects of local breeding location, prevalence of Africa‐transmitted Plasmodium lineages was significantly higher in individuals overwintering in the moist habitats of Western Central Africa, even among sympatrically breeding individuals with different overwintering locations. For the rarer Haemoproteus parasites, prevalence was best explained by breeding location alone, whereas no clear pattern emerged for the least abundant parasite Leucocytozoon. These results have implications for our understanding of spatio‐temporal host–parasite dynamics in migratory species and the spread of avian borne diseases.     

Dichotomous strategies? The migration of Whimbrels breeding in the eastern Canadian sub‐Arctic

The conservation of migratory birds requires internationally coordinated efforts that, in turn, demand an understanding of population dynamics and connectivity throughout a species' range. Whimbrels (Numenius phaeopus) are a widespread long‐distance migratory shorebird with two disparate North American breeding populations. Monitoring efforts suggest that at least one of these populations is declining, but the level of migratory connectivity linking the two populations to specific non‐breeding sites or identifiable conservation threats remains unclear. We deployed light‐level geolocators in 2012 to track the migration of Whimbrels breeding near Churchill, Manitoba, Canada. In 2013, we recovered 11 of these geolocators, yielding complete migration tracks for nine individuals. During southbound migration, six of the nine Whimbrels stopped at two staging sites on the mid‐Atlantic seaboard of the United States for an average of 22 days, whereas three individuals made nonstop flights of ~8000 km from Churchill to South America. All individuals subsequently spent the entire non‐breeding season along the northern coasts of Brazil and Suriname. On their way north, all birds stopped at the same two staging sites used during southbound migration. Individuals staged at these sites for an average of 34 days, significantly longer than during southbound migration, and all departed within a 5‐day period to undertake nonstop flights ranging from 2600 to 3100 km to the breeding grounds. These extended spring stopovers suggest that female Whimbrels likely employ a mixed breeding strategy, drawing on both endogenous and exogenous reserves to produce their eggs. Our results also demonstrate that this breeding population exhibits a high degree of connectivity among breeding, staging, and wintering sites. As with other long‐distance migratory shorebirds, conservation efforts for this population of Whimbrels must therefore focus on a small, but widely spaced, suite of sites that support a large proportion of the population.     

Advances in linking wintering migrant birds to their breeding-ground origins using combined analyses of genetic and stable isotope markers

An enduring problem in avian ecology and conservation is linking breeding and wintering grounds of migratory species. As migratory species and populations vary in the degree to which individuals from distinct breeding locales mix on stop-over sites and wintering grounds, establishing migratory connectivity informs our understanding of population demography and species management. We present a new Bayesian approach for inferring breeding grounds of wintering birds of unknown origins in North America. We incorporate prior information from analysis of genetic markers into geographic origin assignment based upon stable-hydrogen isotope analysis of feathers (δ(2)H(f)), using the Loggerhead Shrike (Lanius ludovicianus). Likely geographic origins derived from analyses of DNA microsatellites were used as priors for Bayesian analyses in which birds were assigned to a breeding-ground origin using their δ(2)H(f) values. As with most applications of Bayesian methods, our approach greatly improved the results (i.e. decreased the size of the potential area of origin). Area of origin decreased by 3 to 5-fold on average, but ranged up to a 10-fold improvement. We recommend this approach in future studies of migratory connectivity and suggest that our methodology could be applied more broadly to the study of dispersal, sources of productivity of migratory populations, and a range of evolutionary phenomena.     

Migratory connectivity and population-specific migration routes in a long-distance migratory bird

Knowledge about migratory connectivity, the degree to which individuals from the same breeding site migrate to the same wintering site, is essential to understand processes affecting populations of migrants throughout the annual cycle. Here, we study the migration system of a long-distance migratory bird, the Montagu''s harrier Circus pygargus, by tracking individuals from different breeding populations throughout northern Europe. We identified three main migration routes towards wintering areas in sub-Saharan Africa. Wintering areas and migration routes of different breeding populations overlapped, a pattern best described by ‘weak (diffuse) connectivity’. Migratory performance, i.e. timing, duration, distance and speed of migration, was surprisingly similar for the three routes despite differences in habitat characteristics. This study provides, to our knowledge, a first comprehensive overview of the migration system of a Palaearctic-African long-distance migrant. We emphasize the importance of spatial scale (e.g. distances between breeding populations) in defining patterns of connectivity and suggest that knowledge about fundamental aspects determining distribution patterns, such as the among-individual variation in mean migration directions, is required to ultimately understand migratory connectivity. Furthermore, we stress that for conservation purposes it is pivotal to consider wintering areas as well as migration routes and in particular stopover sites.     

Winter rainfall predicts phenology in widely separated populations of a migrant songbird

Climate change is affecting behaviour and phenology in many animals. In migratory birds, weather patterns both at breeding and at non-breeding sites can influence the timing of spring migration and breeding. However, variation in responses to weather across a species range has rarely been studied, particularly among populations that may winter in different locations. We used prior knowledge of migratory connectivity to test the influence of weather from predicted non-breeding sites on bird phenology in two breeding populations of a long-distance migratory bird species separated by 3,000 km. We found that winter rainfall showed similar associations with arrival and egg-laying dates in separate breeding populations on an east–west axis: greater rainfall in Jamaica and eastern Mexico was generally associated with advanced American redstart (Setophaga ruticilla) phenology in Ontario and Alberta, respectively. In Ontario, these patterns of response could largely be explained by changes in the behaviour of individual birds, i.e., phenotypic plasticity. By explicitly incorporating migratory connectivity into responses to climate, our data suggest that widely separated breeding populations can show independent and geographically specific associations with changing weather conditions. The tendency of individuals to delay migration and breeding following dry winters could result in population declines due to predicted drying trends in tropical areas and the tight linkage between early arrival/breeding and reproductive success in long-distance migrants.     

Experimental evidence for the effect of habitat loss on the dynamics of migratory networks

Migratory animals present a unique challenge for understanding the consequences of habitat loss on population dynamics because individuals are typically distributed over a series of interconnected breeding and non‐breeding sites (termed migratory network). Using replicated breeding and non‐breeding populations of Drosophila melanogaster and a mathematical model, we investigated three hypotheses to explain how habitat loss influenced the dynamics of populations in networks with different degrees of connectivity between breeding and non‐breeding seasons. We found that habitat loss increased the degree of connectivity in the network and influenced population size at sites that were not directly connected to the site where habitat loss occurred. However, connected networks only buffered global population declines at high levels of habitat loss. Our results demonstrate why knowledge of the patterns of connectivity across a species range is critical for predicting the effects of environmental change and provide empirical evidence for why connected migratory networks are commonly found in nature.     

Connecting breeding and wintering grounds of Neotropical migrant songbirds using stable hydrogen isotopes: a call for an isotopic atlas of migratory connectivity

There is an overdue and urgent need to establish patterns of migratory connectivity linking breeding grounds, stopover sites, and wintering grounds of migratory birds. Such information allows more effective application of conservation efforts by applying focused actions along movement trajectories at the population level. Stable isotope methods, especially those using stable hydrogen isotope abundance in feathers (δ²H_f) combined with Bayesian assignment techniques incorporating prior information such as relative abundance of breeding birds, now provide a fast and reliable means of establishing migratory connectivity, especially for Neotropical migrants that breed in North America and molt prior to fall migration. Here we demonstrate how opportunistic sampling of feathers of 30 species of wintering birds in Cuba, Venezuela, Guatemala, Puerto Rico, and Mexico, regions that have typically been poorly sampled for estimating migratory connectivity, can be assigned to breeding areas in North America through both advanced spatial assignment to probability surfaces and through simpler map lookup approaches. Incorporating relative abundance information from the North American Breeding Bird Survey in our Bayesian assignment models generally resulted in a reduction in potential assignment areas on breeding grounds. However, additional tools to constrain longitude such as DNA markers or other isotopes would be desirable for establishing breeding or molt origins of species with broad longitudinal distributions. The isotope approach could act as a rapid means of establishing basic patterns of migratory connectivity across numerous species and populations. We propose a large‐scale coordinated sampling effort on the wintering grounds to establish an isotopic atlas of migratory connectivity for North American Neotropical migrants and suggest that isotopic variance be considered as a valuable metric to quantify migratory connectivity. This initiative could then act as a strategic template to guide further efforts involving stable isotopes, light‐sensitive geolocators, and other technologies.     

Range-wide migration corridors and non-breeding areas of a northward expanding Afro-Palaearctic migrant,the European Bee-eater Merops apiaster

Across their ranges, different populations of migratory species often use separate routes to migrate between breeding and non-breeding grounds. Recent changes in climate and land-use have led to breeding range expansions in many species but it is unclear whether these populations also establish new migratory routes, non-breeding sites and migration phenology. Thus, we compared the migration patterns of European Bee-eaters Merops apiaster from two established western (n = 5) and eastern (n = 6) breeding populations in Europe, with those from a newly founded northern population (n = 19). We aimed to relate the breeding populations to the two known non-breeding clusters in Africa, and to test for similarities of migration routes and timing between the old and new populations. Western Bee-eaters used the western flyway to destinations in West Africa; the eastern birds uniformly headed south to southern African non-breeding sites, confirming a complete separation in time and space between these long-established populations. The recently founded northern population, however, also used a western corridor, but crossed the Mediterranean further east than the western population and overwintered mainly in a new non-breeding area in southern Congo/northern Angola. The migration routes and the new non-breeding range overlapped only slightly with the western, but not with the eastern, population. In contrast, migration phenology appeared to differ between the western and both the northern and the eastern populations, with tracked birds from the western population migrating 2–4 weeks earlier. The northern population thus shares some spatial traits with western Bee-eaters, but similar phenology only with eastern population. This divergence highlights the adjustments in the timing of migration to local environmental conditions in newly founded populations, and a parallel establishment of new breeding and non-breeding sites.     

The strength of migratory connectivity for birds en route to breeding through the Gulf of Mexico

The strength of migratory connectivity is a measure of the cohesion of populations among phases of the annual cycle, including breeding, migration, and wintering. Many Nearctic‐Neotropical species have strong migratory connectivity between breeding and wintering phases of the annual cycle. It is less clear if this strength persists during migration when multiple endogenous and exogenous factors may decrease the cohesion of populations among routes or through time along the same routes. We sampled three bird species, American redstart Setophaga ruticilla, ovenbird Seiurus aurocapilla, and wood thrush Hylocichla mustelina, during spring migration through the Gulf of Mexico region to test if breeding populations differentiate spatially among migration routes or temporally along the same migration routes and the extent to which within‐population timing is a function of sex, age, and carry‐over from winter habitat, as measured by stable carbon isotope values in claws (δ¹³C). To make quantitative comparisons of migratory connectivity possible, we developed and used new methodology to estimate the strength of migratory connectivity (MC) from probabilistic origin assignments identified using stable hydrogen isotopes in feathers (δ²H). We found support for spatial differentiation among routes by American redstarts and ovenbirds and temporal differentiation along routes by American redstarts. After controlling for breeding origin, the timing of American redstart migration differed among ages and sexes and ovenbird migration timing was influenced by carry‐over from winter habitat. The strength of migratory connectivity did not differ among the three species, with each showing weak breeding‐to‐spring migration MC relative to prior assessments of breeding‐wintering connectivity. Our work begins to fill an essential gap in methodology and understanding of the extent to which populations remain together during migration, information critical for a full annual cycle perspective on the population dynamics and conservation of migratory animals.     

Migratory connectivity of Palaearctic–African migratory birds and their responses to environmental change: the serial residency hypothesis

In most long‐distance migratory birds, juveniles migrate without their parents and so are likely to lack detailed knowledge of where to go. This suggests the potential for stochasticity to affect their choice of wintering area at a large scale (> 1000 km). Adults, in contrast, may re‐use non‐breeding sites that promote their survival, so removing uncertainty from their subsequent migrations. I review the evidence for large‐scale stochastic juvenile site selection followed by adult site fidelity, and then develop a ‘serial‐residency’ hypothesis based on these two traits as a framework to explain both the migratory connectivity and the population dynamics of migrant birds and how these are affected by environmental change. Juvenile stochasticity is apparent in the age‐dependent effects of weather or experimental displacement on the outcome of migration and in the very wide variation in the destinations of individuals originating from the same area. Adults have been shown to be very faithful to their wintering grounds and even to staging sites. The serial residency hypothesis predicts that migrants that show these two traits will rely on an individually unique but fixed series of temporally and spatially linked sites to complete their annual cycle. As a consequence, migratory connectivity will be apparent at a very small scale for individuals, but only at a large scale for a population, and juveniles are predicted to occur more often at less suitable sites than adults, so that survival will be lower for juveniles. Migratory connectivity will arise only through spatial and temporal autocorrelation with local environmental constraints, particularly on passage, and the distribution and age structure of the population may reflect past environmental constraints. At least some juveniles will discover suitable habitat that they may re‐use as adults, thus promoting overall population‐level resilience to environmental change, and suggesting value in site‐based conservation. However, because migratory connectivity only acts on a large scale, any population of migrants will contain individuals that encounter a change in suitability somewhere in their non‐breeding range, so affecting average survival. Differences in population trends will therefore reflect variation in local breeding output added to average survival from wintering and staging areas. The latter is likely to be declining given increasing levels of environmental degradation throughout Africa. Large‐scale migratory connectivity also has implications for the evolutionary ecology of migrants, generally because this is likely to lead to selection for generalist traits.