多卫星降水产品在环渤海地区的精度评价

降水是全球能量和水循环中的重要变量之一,降水资料的精度对洪旱灾害的监测与预报、水资源管理等至关重要.本文利用环渤海地区1998—2014年55个气象站点的逐日降水数据,分别从日、月尺度对TRMM 3B42、CMORPH、PERSIANN 3种卫星降水产品进行精度评价,并对其季节差异进行分析.结果表明: 总体上,TRMM 3B42 V7的精度最高,PERSIANN精度最低,但CMORPH对日降水事件的探测成功率(0.69)最高;3B42略高估算了日降水量,其他两者则对日降水量存在低估.春、夏、秋季各卫星降水产品对降水的成功探测率高于冬季,且相关系数、均方根误差等指标随季节变化明显.3种卫星降水产品的月尺度估算精度优于日尺度,其中对日降水量的估算精度较低,特别是明显低估了暴雨事件的实际降水量.本研究为卫星降水产品在环渤海地区降水估算及其在气候与水文模拟和预测中的应用提供了依据和支持.     

基于卫星降水产品的华北北纬38°带降水氢氧同位素时空特征及水汽来源

降水氢氧同位素的变化程度对反演降水水汽来源和认识蒸发作用的强弱有重要作用;结合高时间分辨率的卫星降水产品能够提高反演水汽来源的准确性,更清晰地说明水汽团的运移路径.本研究以位于华北北纬38°带的中国科学院太行山站(山区)、栾城站(山前平原)和南皮站(滨海低平原)2015-2018年降水氢氧同位素为对象,分析该区域降水水...     

陕北黄土高原柠条灌丛穿透雨特征与影响因素

穿透雨是降雨再分配的主要组分,对干旱半干旱区的土壤水分补给和植被生长具有关键作用。灌丛穿透雨的影响机制特别是植被特征对穿透雨的影响需要进一步的定量研究,且目前对穿透雨空间异质性与聚集效应的研究相对较少。以陕北黄土高原典型灌丛—柠条为研究对象,于2016年对六道沟小流域柠条冠层下8个方位的穿透雨以及降雨和植被因子进行系统观测,分析穿透雨量、穿透雨率、穿透雨空间变异和聚集效应的变化特征,辨识影响穿透雨的主要降雨和植被因子,并建立相应的定量关系。结果表明:次降雨下柠条的穿透雨量、穿透雨率和空间变异系数平均值分别为11.88 mm、75.71%和21.80%。穿透雨量主要由降雨量决定,随降雨量增加而线性增加(R~2=0.99)。穿透雨率和空间变异系数主要受降雨量和降雨强度影响,穿透雨率随降雨量和I_30增加而呈对数增加(R~2=0.71和0.54),渐进值约为95%,而穿透雨空间变异系数则随降雨量和I_30增加而呈幂函数递减(R~2=0.71和0.60),稳定值约为10%。冠层厚度和枝倾角是影响穿透雨的主要植被因子,并分别呈显著的线性负相关和正相关(P0.05)。柠条穿透雨具有一定的聚集效应,平均发生频率为8.53%,且聚集效应在大雨量、高雨强和长历时降雨事件中更加明显。     

内蒙古西鄂尔多斯荒漠区降水入渗氘同位素特征

探讨我国干旱半干旱地区大气降水在土壤剖面中的时空分布特征将为西鄂尔多斯荒漠退化生态系统恢复和维持提供科学依据.本研究利用氘同位素技术研究了内蒙古西鄂尔多斯荒漠的大气降水、土壤水、地下水中的氘同位素值(δD),运用二元线性混合模型计算降水对各层土壤水的贡献率,并结合土壤含水量分析了不同降水条件下土壤剖面各层土壤水δD的时空分布特征.结果表明: 雨后9 d内,小雨(0～10 mm)影响0～10 cm土壤含水量和土壤水δD值,对表层土壤(0～10 cm)的贡献率在30.3%～87.9%;中雨(10～20 mm)影响0～40 cm土壤含水量和土壤水δD值,对0～40 cm土壤水的贡献率为28.2%～80.8%;大雨(20～30 mm)和特大暴雨(＞30 mm)影响0～100 cm土壤含水量和土壤水δD值.降水对100～150 cm深层土壤水δD值影响不显著.西鄂尔多斯荒漠土壤水δD介于大气降水δD与地下水δD之间,表明西鄂尔多斯荒漠土壤水主要来源于大气降水与地下水.在同一降水强度下,表层土壤水(0～10 cm)受降水的直接影响显著,随着土壤深度的增加,土壤水δD变化幅度降低,100～150 cm深层土壤水δD基本趋于稳定.降水强度越大,对土壤水δD影响的时间越长,影响的土壤深度也越深.     

Top-down response to spatial variation in productivity and bottom-up response to temporal variation in productivity in a long-term study of desert ants

Under the Ecosystem Exploitation Hypothesis ecosystem productivity predicts trophic complexity, but it is unclear if spatial and temporal drivers of productivity have similar impacts. Long-term studies are necessary to capture temporal impacts on trophic structure in variable ecosystems such as deserts. We sampled ants and measured plant resources in the Simpson Desert, central Australia over a 22-year period, during which rainfall varied 10-fold. We sampled dune swales (higher nutrient) and crests (lower nutrient) to account for spatial variation in productivity. We asked how temporal and spatial variation in productivity affects the abundance of ant trophic guilds. Precipitation increased vegetation cover, with the difference more pronounced on dune crests; seeding and flowering also increased with precipitation. Generalist activity increased over time, irrespective of productivity. Predators were more active in more productive (swale) habitat, i.e. spatial impacts of productivity were greatest at the highest trophic level. By contrast, herbivores (seed harvesters and sugar feeders) increased with long-term rainfall; seed harvesters also increased as seeding increased. Temporal impacts of productivity were therefore greatest for low trophic levels. Whether productivity variation leads to top-down or bottom-up structured ecosystems thus depends on the scale and dimension (spatial or temporal) of productivity.     

Biological and Statistical Errors Make Inferences Circumspect: Response to Bender and Weisenberger

ABSTRACT Bender and Weisenberger (2005) reported that desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) on San Andres National Wildlife Refuge (SANWR), New Mexico, USA, were primarily limited by rainfall. However, they failed to mention, or were unaware, that persistent long-term predator control was used to enhance population growth at SANWR. Additionally, lamb:female ratios were collected throughout the year, rather than dates typically associated with assessing recruitment, and therefore influence of precipitation on lamb recruitment was unknown. Finally, model predictions forwarded by Bender and Weisenberger (2005), that carrying capacity of SANWR is zero when annual rainfall is <28.2 cm, were not supported by data, nor were their model results properly interpreted. The coefficient of determination value of 88.9% for the relationship between population size and current year's precipitation was primarily a function of serial correlation between successive years in population data, with current year's precipitation accounting for only 3.8% of this value. This suggests that precipitation was a weak predictor of population increase. These errors in concert make biological inferences reported in Bender and Weisenberger (2005) of limited value.     

Shifts in the dynamics of productivity signal ecosystem state transitions at the biome‐scale

Understanding ecosystem dynamics and predicting directional changes in ecosystem in response to global changes are ongoing challenges in ecology. Here we present a framework that links productivity dynamics and ecosystem state transitions based on a spatially continuous dataset of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) from the temperate grassland of China. Across a regional precipitation gradient, we quantified spatial patterns in ANPP dynamics (variability, asymmetry and sensitivity to rainfall) and related these to transitions from desert to semi‐arid to mesic steppe. We show that these three indices of ANPP dynamics displayed distinct spatial patterns, with peaks signalling transitions between grassland types. Thus, monitoring shifts in ANPP dynamics has the potential for predicting ecosystem state transitions in the future. Current ecosystem models fail to capture these dynamics, highlighting the need to incorporate more nuanced ecological controls of productivity in models to forecast future ecosystem shifts.     

泾河流域植被覆盖时空演变及其与降水的关系

在当前全球变化和人类活动剧烈影响下, 研究黄土高原植被覆盖的发展趋势及其与主要限制因子的关系, 对黄土高原退化生态系统的恢复和区域生态环境评价有着重要意义。我们利用GIMMS-NDVI数据和长期降雨数据, 对黄土高原中部泾河流域22 a的植被覆盖时空演变及其与降水的关系进行了研究。结果表明, 1)1982~2003年, 泾河流域植被覆盖整体呈微弱的增加趋势, 并在空间上表现出一定差异。植被覆盖增加的地区约69.62%, 其中显著增加的地区16.61%, 主要分布在泾河流域的中西部和下游小流域, 显著下降的地区约1.65%, 主要分布在泾河流域上游及周边地区; 2) NDVI与降水极显著相关。年NDVI随年降水服从对数分布, 生长季(4~11月)NDVI比降水滞后1个月; 3) 泾河流域降水利用效率不稳定变化, 土地退化状况未见有效改善, 并且泾河流域降水利用效率随降水量的增加而降低, 值得探索。     

Modelling rainfall and canopy controls on net-precipitation beneath selectively-logged tropical forest

Understanding spatio-temporal patterns in rainfall received beneath tropical forest is required for eco- hydrological modelling of soil-water status, river behaviour, soil erosion, nutrient loss and wet-canopy evaporation. As selective-logging of tropical forest leaves a very complex mosaic of canopy types, it is likely to add to the spatio-temporal complexity of this sub-canopy or net precipitation. As a precursor to addressing this problem, the analysis presented here will examine the two dominant biophysical controls on sub-canopy precipitation. These controls are: (a) the spatial and temporal patterns in above-canopy or gross rainfall, and (b) the rate of wet-canopy evaporation associated with each type of canopy structure created by selective-forestry. For this study, over 400 raingauges were installed within a 10 km² area of lowland dipterocarp forest affected by selective-forestry some 9-years prior to this work. Gauges were located beneath various canopy types and within large openings. The spatial distribution of gross rainfall (monitored within the openings) was modelled using variography, while the effects of different canopy types on sub-canopy preciptation was analysed by comparing 6-month totals. The temporal distribution of gross rainfall over an 11-year record collected at the same site (Danum Valley Field Centre) was modelled with Data-Based-Mechanistic (DBM) approaches. These DBM approaches were also applied to the rainfall time-series of the two adjacent meteorological stations; all three gauges being contained within a 5000 km² region of Eastern Sabah in Malaysian Borneo.Strong diurnal modulation was apparent within gross rainfall for the inland rainforest site, with a distribution consistent with a dominance of local convective rain cells. A similarly strong cycle coincident with the periodicity of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was present within all of the region's rainfall records, though marked differences in annual and intra-annual seasonality were apparent. The preliminary variogram modelling indicated that a deterministic drift was present within the local-scale gross rainfall data, probably related to local topographic effects. Notwithstanding the need to remove this drift, the work indicated that spatial models of gross rainfall could be identified and used to interpret similar models of net-precipitation. During the ENSO drought-period monitored, the lowland dipterocarp forest allowed 91% of the gross rainfall to reach the ground as throughfall. These rates were, however, reduced to between 80%–86% beneath representative plots of moderately impacted to creeper-covered, highly damaged patches of forest.     

北京山区干旱胁迫下侧柏叶片水分吸收策略

干旱与半干旱地区,水分是限制树木生长的重要影响因子。由于降水稀缺且分配不均,叶片吸收水分是此地区树木吸收和利用小量级降水和凝结水的主要方式。北京山区处于易旱少雨的生态脆弱地带,森林植被经常遭受干旱胁迫,所以对该地区的森林系统而言,叶片直接吸收利用截留的降雨是干旱时期树木获得水分的重要途径。基于野外对比控制试验和室内盆栽模拟试验,选取北京山区的主要造林树种侧柏为研究对象,进行利用天然降雨与模拟降雨试验,研究降雨前后侧柏叶片吸水特征,探究侧柏在干旱环境下如何通过叶片吸水缓解干旱胁迫。结果表明：当侧柏长期处于干旱胁迫状态时,叶片可以利用降雨,从中获益用来缓解树木的干旱胁迫状态;叶片的吸水能力与降雨强度呈正相关关系,与土壤含水率呈负相关关系;重度干旱下侧柏植株在降雨强度为15 mm/h时叶片吸水现象最明显,叶水势变化最大为(1.18±0.17) MPa,叶片含水率变化最大为(8.47±1.00)mg/cm~2;当土壤水率高于20.8%时,基本不发生叶片吸水现象。试验结果说明在干旱地区叶片吸水是树木除根系吸水外的重要水分来源方式,并且对干旱地区有效利用短缺水资源,减轻植物水分亏缺具有重要意义。     

Functional differences between summer and winter season rain assessed with MODIS‐derived phenology in a semi‐arid region

Questions: We asked several linked questions about phenology and precipitation relationships at local, landscape, and regional spatial scales within individual seasons, between seasons, and between year temporal scales. (1) How do winter and summer phenological patterns vary in response to total seasonal rainfall? (2) How are phenological rates affected by the previous season rainfall? (3) How does phenological variability differ at landscape and regional spatial scales and at season and inter‐annual temporal scales? Location: Southern Arizona, USA. Methods: We compared satellite‐derived phenological variation between 38 distinct 625‐km² landscapes distributed in the northern Sonoran Desert region from 2000 to 2007. Regression analyses were used to identify relationships between landscape phenology dynamics in response to precipitation variability across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Results: While both summer and winter seasons show increases of peak greenness and peak growth with more precipitation, the timing of peak growth was advanced with more precipitation in winter, while the timing of peak greenness was advanced with more precipitation in summer. Surprisingly, summer maximum growth was negatively affected by winter precipitation. The spatial variations between summer and winter phenology were similar in magnitude and response. Larger‐scale spatial and temporal variation showed strong differences in precipitation patterns; however the magnitudes of phenological spatial variability in these two seasons were similar. Conclusions: Vegetation patterns were clearly coupled to precipitation variability, with distinct responses at alternative spatial and temporal scales. Disaggregating vegetation into phenological variation, spanning value, timing, and integrated components revealed substantial complexity in precipitation‐phenological relationships.     

Impact of Seasonality on Artificial Drainage Discharge under Temperate Climate Conditions

Artificial drainage systems affect all components of the water and matter balance. For the proper simulation of water and solute fluxes, information is needed about artificial drainage discharge rates and their response times. However, there is relatively little information available about the response of artificial drainage systems to precipitation. To address this need, we analysed 11 datasets from artificial drainage study sites (daily or hourly resolution), one daily dataset from an open ditch system, and three datasets from rainfall simulations on tile‐drained fields. When we considered all 11 artificial drainage study sites, we found that artificial drainage discharge responded to 70% of all rainfall events during the year, and that the response rate differed significantly between 56% summer and 84% in winter. A median of 23% of the yearly precipitation rate is discharged by artificial drainage systems, varying from 9% of the precipitation in summer to 54% of the precipitation in winter. The artificial drainage systems usually started to respond within the first hour under rain fed conditions, and the response time increased at lower rainfall intensities (< 1 mm h^–1). The peak outflow normally occurred within the first two days. The influence of soil texture and land use on artificial drainage discharge rates could not be reproduced properly, due to the spatial high variability caused by other site‐specific properties. (© 2011 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Trap‐shyness subsidence is a threshold function of mark–recapture interval in brown mudfish Neochanna apoda populations

The influence of capture interval on trap shyness, and temperature, rainfall and drought on capture probability (p) in 827 brown mudfish Neochanna apoda was quantified using mark–recapture models. In particular, it was hypothesized that the loss of trapping memory in marked N. apoda would lead to a capture‐interval threshold required to minimize trap shyness. Neochanna apoda trap shyness approximated a threshold response to capture interval, declining rapidly with increasing capture intervals up to 16·5 days, after which p remained constant. Tests for detecting trap‐dependent capture probability in Cormack–Jolly–Seber models failed to detect trap shyness in N. apoda capture histories with capture intervals averaging 16 days. This confirmed the applicability of the 16 day capture‐interval threshold for mark–recapture studies. Instead, N. apoda p was positively influenced by water temperature and rainfall during capture. These results imply that a threshold capture interval is required to minimize the trade‐off between the competing assumptions of population closure and p homogeneity between capture occasions in closed mark–recapture models. Moreover, environmental factors that influence behaviour could potentially confound abundance indices, and consequently abundance trends should be interpreted with caution in the face of long‐term climate change, such as with global warming.     

Contrasting relationships between precipitation and species richness in space and time

Future changes in precipitation regimes are likely to impact species richness in water-limited plant communities. Regional, spatial relationships between precipitation and richness could offer information about how altered rainfall will impact local communities, assuming that processes driving the regional relationship are also dominant at fine spatial and short temporal scales. To test this assumption, we compared spatial and temporal relationships between precipitation and both species richness and species turnover in central North American grasslands. Across a broad geographic gradient, mean plant species richness in 1-m² plots increased significantly with mean annual precipitation. In contrast, over a 36-yr period at one mixed-grass prairie in the center of the regional gradient, single-year precipitation and richness were poorly correlated, and consecutive wet years had little effect on richness. Instead, richness increased most in wet years that followed dry years. Geographically dispersed sites receiving different levels of mean annual precipitation displayed strong differences in species composition, whereas temporal variation in precipitation at one site was not related to compositional dissimilarity, indicating that species turnover plays a key role in generating the regional relationship. Analyses of individual species' presence-absence suggest that the lagged temporal responses reflect environmental germination cues more than resource competition. These complex cues may dampen the initial impact of altered precipitation on diversity, but over the long term, turnover in species composition should lead to changes in richness, as in the regional, spatial relationship. How quickly this long-term response develops may depend on the colonization rates of species better adapted to the altered rainfall regime.     

广东省2004—2016年植被冠层降雨截留模拟及时空变化特征

评价植被冠层降雨截留能力,是生态系统水循环的重要研究内容。以广东省中小流域为例,结合地面监测站点的降雨量数据和MODIS叶面积指数遥感数据,利用植被冠层降雨截留模型,定量模拟和分析了广东省流域尺度2004—2016年的地表植被冠层降雨截留能力及其时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)2004—2012年广东省年均植被冠层降雨截留率持续下降,2016年略有上升,并且随着时间的推移,流域之间的植被冠层降雨截留率差异越来越小。(2)广东省植被冠层降雨截留能力呈现山区东西两翼高,山区中部以及沿海地区低的显著空间差异格局,这种空间格局与植被覆盖LAI主要呈现由珠三角向外围递增的圈层空间格局特征密切相关,而与由南向北逐渐递减的降雨空间格局特征相关性不大。(3)森林覆盖对流域植被冠层降雨截留能力有着一定的影响,其中流域内阔叶林占森林面积的比例对这种影响的程度起着最为关键的作用。     

Decreased precipitation exacerbates the effects of sea level on coastal dune ecosystems in open ocean islands

The alteration of fresh and marine water cycling is likely to occur in coastal ecosystems as climate change causes the global redistribution of precipitation while simultaneously driving sea‐level rise at a rate of 2–3 mm yr^?1. Here, we examined how precipitation alters the ecological effects of ocean water intrusion to coastal dunes on two oceanic carbonate islands in the Bahamas. The approach was to compare sites that receive high and low annual rainfall and are also characterized by seasonal distribution (wet and dry season) of precipitation. The spatial and temporal variations in precipitation serve as a proxy for conditions of altered precipitation which may occur via climate change. We used the natural abundances of stable isotopes to identify water sources (e.g., precipitation, groundwater and ocean water) in the soil–plant continuum and modeled the depth of plant water uptake. Results indicated that decreased rainfall caused the shallow freshwater table on the dune ecosystem to sink and contract towards the inland, the lower freshwater head allowed ocean water to penetrate into the deeper soils, while shallow soils became exceedingly dry. Plants at the drier site that lived nearest to the ocean responded by taking up water from the deeper and consistently moist soil layers where ocean water intruded. Towards the inland, decreased rainfall caused the water table to sink to a depth that precluded both recharge to the upper soil layers and access by plants. Consequently, plants captured water in more shallow soils recharged by infrequent rainfall events. The results demonstrate dune ecosystems on oceanic islands are more susceptible to ocean water intrusion when annual precipitation decreases. Periods of diminished precipitation caused drought conditions, increased exposure to saline marine water and altered water‐harvesting strategies. Quantifying species tolerances to ocean water intrusion and drought are necessary to determine a threshold of community sustainability.     

Rainfall and population dynamics of Grey Pileated Finch <Emphasis Type="Italic">Coryphospingus pileatus</Emphasis> (Aves: Passeriformes) in a Neotropical dry forest

In tropical dry environments rainfall periodicity may affect demographic parameters, resulting in fluctuations in bird abundance. We used capture–recapture data for the Grey Pileated Finch from a Neotropical dry forest to evaluate the hypothesis that intra- and inter-annual survival, individuals entrance and population abundance, are related to local rainfall. Sampling occurred across 3 years, with individuals captured, tagged and evaluated for age and presence of brood patch every 14 days. Using the POPAN formulation, we generated demographic models to evaluate study population temporal dynamics. Best-fit models indicated a low apparent annual survival in the first year (16%) compared to other years (between 47 and 62%), with this low value associated with an extreme drought. The abundance of juveniles at each capture occasion was significantly dependent on the accumulated precipitation in the previous 14 days, and the juvenile covariate was a strong predictor of the intra-annual entrance probability (natality). Individuals entrance during the reproductive period corresponded to 53, 52 and 75% of total ingress for each year, respectively. The trend in sampled population size indicated positive exponential growth (N_initial = 50, N_last = 600), with intra-annual fluctuations becoming progressively more intense. Low survival was relevant during population decline at study onset, while at study end intense Individuals entrance promoted rapid population growth. Thus, the indirect effects of rainfall and the combined effect of two demographic rates operated synergistically on the immediate population abundance of Grey Pileated Finch, an abundant bird in a Neotropical dry forest.     

极端降水条件下延河水沙特征对比分析及其影响因素

为探究延河流域在开展水土保持工程前后极端降水条件下水沙特征变化情况,采用统计学方法对比分析了延河流域1977年和2013年7月两次极端降水条件下的水沙特征变化情况。结果表明:1977年7月极端暴雨具有降雨强度大和降雨量峰值大、降雨强度空间分布极不均匀的特征;2013年7月极端暴雨具有降雨总量和时段降雨量大、暴雨频率高、降雨强度空间分布较均匀的特征。2013年7月洪水洪峰流量、洪水总径流量、洪峰含沙量等特征值较1977年7月显著减小,输沙量随径流量的减小而显著减小。1977年7月洪水表现为陡涨陡落,洪水历时较短;2013年7月洪水表现为缓涨缓落,洪水历时明显延长。与1977年相比,2013年泥沙颗粒明显细化。该研究表明1990年代以来水土保持高水平的规模化治理改变了流域产、汇流的下垫面条件,是导致1977年和2013年7月极端降水条件下的水沙特征表现迥异的主要原因。该研究为应对极端降水引发的洪灾和防治水土流失提供可靠的科学理论依据。     

苏南丘陵区毛竹林冠截留降雨分布格局

降雨穿过林冠层时,由于林冠的拦截作用,改变了降雨分布格局。林冠截留是一个复杂的水文过程,受降水特征及林分特性的影响较大。本文以北亚热带苏南丘陵地区人工毛竹林(Phyllostachys edulis)为研究对象,利用2007年度各场次降雨观测数据,分析了降雨量和降雨强度与林冠截留降雨的关系,研究了林冠截留过程的特点。结果表明：（1） 研究期间共观测到102次降水事件,降水总量为1110.8mm,单次最大降雨量为110.0㎜,最小为0.55㎜,事件平均降水量为10.89mm,且绝大部分降雨为低雨强、中雨量级的降雨事件。（2） 研究期间林冠截留总量为171.72mm,占同期降雨总量的15.46%。单次林冠截留量变幅为0.21—4.55mm,截留率变幅为1.3%—100%,且随林外降雨量的递增,林冠截留率呈现递减的变化趋势,二者的关系用幂函数（I0=117.34P-0.9106）拟合效果较好。（3）在林外次降雨量小于5㎜的条件下,事件降雨量占年降雨总量的5.0%,相应的降雨事件频率为9.8%,此时林冠截留量随降雨量的增大而增加,其变幅为0.55—1.9㎜,截留量与降雨量的关系用对数函数（I=0.4931Ln(P) 0.9493）进行拟合效果较好;在单场降雨量大于5㎜时,林冠截留量随各场次降雨量的增加,其变动幅度和频率均大大增强,变化范围在0.21—4.55㎜之间,二者相关性较差。（4）降雨在7—10mm雨量级范围内时,林外降雨量和林冠截留量分别为245.14mm和47.9㎜,占其全年总量的比例均为最大,分别为22.07%和27.9%;各雨量级林冠平均截留量与平均降雨量的关系表现为对数函数关系（R2=0.7287）,而截留率与平均降雨量的关系表现为极显著的幂函数关系（R2=0.9817）,且林冠对降雨的截留作用在雨量级较小时,表现十分显著。（5）全年单场降雨强度小于0.06mm/min时,降雨事件频数为73.53%,降雨量占其总量的57.93%,林冠截留量占其总量的89.34%,降雨事件平均截留率（23.84%）远高于雨强大于0.06mm/min时的降雨事件平均截留率（3.92%）。本研究结果为长江中下游丘陵山区水土保持林和水源涵养林体系建设提供了理论依据。     

Sensitivity of tropical forests to climate change in the humid tropics of north Queensland

An analysis using an artificial neural network model suggests that the tropical forests of north Queensland are highly sensitive to climate change within the range that is likely to occur in the next 50–100 years. The distribution and extent of environments suitable for 15 structural forest types were estimated, using the model, in 10 climate scenarios that include warming up to 1°C and altered precipitation from –10% to +20%. Large changes in the distribution of forest environments are predicted with even minor climate change. Increased precipitation favours some rainforest types, whereas decreased rainfall increases the area suitable for forests dominated by sclerophyllous genera such as Eucalyptus and Allocasuarina. Rainforest environments respond differentially to increased temperature. The area of lowland mesophyll vine forest environments increases with warming, whereas upland complex notophyll vine forest environments respond either positively or negatively to temperature, depending on precipitation. Highland rainforest environments (simple notophyll and simple microphyll vine fern forests and thickets), the habitat for many of the region’s endemic vertebrates, decrease by 50% with only a 1°C warming. Estimates of the stress to present forests resulting from spatial shifts of forest environments (assuming no change in the present forest distributions) indicate that several forest types would be highly stressed by a 1°C warming and most are sensitive to any change in rainfall. Most forests will experience climates in the near future that are more appropriate to some other structural forest type. Thus, the propensity for ecological change in the region is high and, in the long term, significant shifts in the extent and spatial distribution of forests are likely. A detailed spatial analysis of the sensitivity to climate change indicates that the strongest effects of climate change will be experienced at boundaries between forest classes and in ecotonal communities between rainforest and open woodland.