Outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 in China and the United States

Biomechanics and Modeling in Mechanobiology - On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus disease 2019, COVID-19, a global pandemic. In an unprecedented collective...     

COVID-19 and excess mortality in the United States: A county-level analysis

BackgroundCoronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) excess deaths refer to increases in mortality over what would normally have been expected in the absence of the COVID-19 pandemic. Several prior studies have calculated excess deaths in the United States but were limited to the national or state level, precluding an examination of area-level variation in excess mortality and excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19. In this study, we take advantage of county-level variation in COVID-19 mortality to estimate excess deaths associated with the pandemic and examine how the extent of excess mortality not assigned to COVID-19 varies across subsets of counties defined by sociodemographic and health characteristics.Methods and findingsIn this ecological, cross-sectional study, we made use of provisional National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) data on direct COVID-19 and all-cause mortality occurring in US counties from January 1 to December 31, 2020 and reported before March 12, 2021. We used data with a 10-week time lag between the final day that deaths occurred and the last day that deaths could be reported to improve the completeness of data. Our sample included 2,096 counties with 20 or more COVID-19 deaths. The total number of residents living in these counties was 319.1 million. On average, the counties were 18.7% Hispanic, 12.7% non-Hispanic Black, and 59.6% non-Hispanic White. A total of 15.9% of the population was older than 65 years. We first modeled the relationship between 2020 all-cause mortality and COVID-19 mortality across all counties and then produced fully stratified models to explore differences in this relationship among strata of sociodemographic and health factors. Overall, we found that for every 100 deaths assigned to COVID-19, 120 all-cause deaths occurred (95% CI, 116 to 124), implying that 17% (95% CI, 14% to 19%) of excess deaths were ascribed to causes of death other than COVID-19 itself. Our stratified models revealed that the percentage of excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19 was substantially higher among counties with lower median household incomes and less formal education, counties with poorer health and more diabetes, and counties in the South and West. Counties with more non-Hispanic Black residents, who were already at high risk of COVID-19 death based on direct counts, also reported higher percentages of excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19. Study limitations include the use of provisional data that may be incomplete and the lack of disaggregated data on county-level mortality by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and sociodemographic and health characteristics.ConclusionsIn this study, we found that direct COVID-19 death counts in the US in 2020 substantially underestimated total excess mortality attributable to COVID-19. Racial and socioeconomic inequities in COVID-19 mortality also increased when excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19 were considered. Our results highlight the importance of considering health equity in the policy response to the pandemic.

Andrew Stokes and co-workers report a county-level analysis of excess deaths owing to COVID-19 in the United States.     

Temporal estimates of case-fatality rate for COVID-19 outbreaks in Canada and the United States

BACKGROUND:Estimates of the case-fatality rate (CFR) associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vary widely in different population settings. We sought to estimate and compare the COVID-19 CFR in Canada and the United States while adjusting for 2 potential biases in crude CFR.METHODS:We used the daily incidence of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths in Canada and the US from Jan. 31 to Apr. 22, 2020. We applied a statistical method to minimize bias in the crude CFR by accounting for the survival interval as the lag time between disease onset and death, while considering reporting rates of COVID-19 cases less than 50% (95% confidence interval 10%–50%).RESULTS:Using data for confirmed cases in Canada, we estimated the crude CFR to be 4.9% on Apr. 22, 2020, and the adjusted CFR to be 5.5% (credible interval [CrI] 4.9%–6.4%). After we accounted for various reporting rates less than 50%, the adjusted CFR was estimated at 1.6% (CrI 0.7%–3.1%). The US crude CFR was estimated to be 5.4% on Apr. 20, 2020, with an adjusted CFR of 6.1% (CrI 5.4%–6.9%). With reporting rates of less than 50%, the adjusted CFR for the US was 1.78 (CrI 0.8%–3.6%).INTERPRETATION:Our estimates suggest that, if the reporting rate is less than 50%, the adjusted CFR of COVID-19 in Canada is likely to be less than 2%. The CFR estimates for the US were higher than those for Canada, but the adjusted CFR still remained below 2%. Quantification of case reporting can provide a more accurate measure of the virulence and disease burden of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.

The risk of death associated with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is fundamental to the disease burden imposed by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Quantification of this risk can provide critical information on the health and socioeconomic impact of the pandemic and identify population subgroups at highest risk for severe outcomes. The risk of death from a diagnosed infection, often referred to as the case-fatality rate (CFR), is the proportion of people who die from a disease among all those diagnosed with the disease over a certain period.Estimates of the COVID-19 CFR vary in different populations and at different stages of the outbreak, ranging from 0.4% in China¹ to 31.4% in the northwest region of Italy.² From individual-level data for patients in Hubei Province, Mainland China,³ an adjusted CFR of 3.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.6%–3.8%) was estimated. For the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, the age-adjusted CFR was estimated at 2.6% (95% CI 0.9%–6.7%) in all age groups but was substantially higher (13.0%, 95% CI 5.2%–26.0%) among those aged 70 years or older.⁴For ongoing outbreaks and especially during the exponential growth phase, the delay between onset of disease and knowledge of the final outcome may result in biased estimates of the CFR.⁵ Furthermore, underestimation of the number of COVID-19 cases will inflate the CFR. Limited ability to test or recognize mildly or moderately symptomatic people in both the United States and Canada has likely led to substantial underestimation of the rate of infection in affected communities.^6,7Given the importance of the CFR in public health planning, we sought to estimate the CFR for ongoing COVID-19 outbreaks in the US and Canada while accounting for preferential ascertainment of severe cases (leading to underestimation) and the lag time between disease onset and death.     

Cardiac electrophysiology consultative experience at the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has greatly altered the practice of cardiac electrophysiology around the world for the foreseeable future. Professional organizations have provided guidance for practitioners, but real-world examples of the consults and responsibilities cardiac electrophysiologists face during a surge of COVID-19 patients is lacking.MethodsIn this observational case series we report on 29 consecutive inpatient electrophysiology consultations at a major academic medical center in New York City, the epicenter of the pandemic in the United States, during a 2 week period from March 30-April 12, 2020, when 80% of hospital beds were occupied by COVID-19 patients, and the New York City metropolitan area accounted for 10% of COVID-19 cases worldwide.ResultsReasons for consultation included: Atrial tachyarrhythmia (31%), cardiac implantable electronic device management (28%), bradycardia (14%), QTc prolongation (10%), ventricular arrhythmia (7%), post-transcatheter aortic valve replacement conduction abnormality (3.5%), ventricular pre-excitation (3.5%), and paroxysmal supraventricular tachycardia (3.5%). Twenty-four patients (86%) were positive for COVID-19 by nasopharyngeal swab. All elective procedures were canceled, and only one urgent device implantation was performed. Thirteen patients (45%) required in-person evaluation and the remainder were managed remotely.ConclusionOur experience shows that the application of a massive alteration in workflow and personnel forced by the pandemic allowed our team to efficiently address the intersection of COVID-19 with a range of electrophysiology issues. This experience will prove useful as guidance for emerging hot spots or areas affected by future waves of the pandemic.     

Roadblocks in Chagas disease care in endemic and nonendemic countries: Argentina,Colombia, Spain,and the United States. The NET-Heart project

BackgroundChagas disease (CD) is endemic in Latin America; however, its spread to nontropical areas has raised global interest in this condition. Barriers in access to early diagnosis and treatment of both acute and chronic infection and their complications have led to an increasing disease burden outside of Latin America. Our goal was to identify those barriers and to perform an additional analysis of them based on the Inter American Society of Cardiology (SIAC) and the World Heart Federation (WHF) Chagas Roadmap, at a country level in Argentina, Colombia, Spain, and the United States, which serve as representatives of endemic and nonendemic countries.Methodology and principal findingsThis is a nonsystematic review of articles published in indexed journals from 1955 to 2021 and of gray literature (local health organizations guidelines, local policies, blogs, and media). We classified barriers to access care as (i) existing difficulties limiting healthcare access; (ii) lack of awareness about CD and its complications; (iii) poor transmission control (vectorial and nonvectorial); (iv) scarce availability of antitrypanosomal drugs; and (v) cultural beliefs and stigma. Region-specific barriers may limit the implementation of roadmaps and require the application of tailored strategies to improve access to appropriate care.ConclusionsMultiple barriers negatively impact the prognosis of CD. Identification of these roadblocks both nationally and globally is important to guide development of appropriate policies and public health programs to reduce the global burden of this disease.     

Using test positivity and reported case rates to estimate state-level COVID-19 prevalence and seroprevalence in the United States

Accurate estimates of infection prevalence and seroprevalence are essential for evaluating and informing public health responses and vaccination coverage needed to address the ongoing spread of COVID-19 in each United States (U.S.) state. However, reliable, timely data based on representative population sampling are unavailable, and reported case and test positivity rates are highly biased. A simple data-driven Bayesian semi-empirical modeling framework was developed and used to evaluate state-level prevalence and seroprevalence of COVID-19 using daily reported cases and test positivity ratios. The model was calibrated to and validated using published state-wide seroprevalence data, and further compared against two independent data-driven mathematical models. The prevalence of undiagnosed COVID-19 infections is found to be well-approximated by a geometrically weighted average of the positivity rate and the reported case rate. Our model accurately fits state-level seroprevalence data from across the U.S. Prevalence estimates of our semi-empirical model compare favorably to those from two data-driven epidemiological models. As of December 31, 2020, we estimate nation-wide a prevalence of 1.4% [Credible Interval (CrI): 1.0%-1.9%] and a seroprevalence of 13.2% [CrI: 12.3%-14.2%], with state-level prevalence ranging from 0.2% [CrI: 0.1%-0.3%] in Hawaii to 2.8% [CrI: 1.8%-4.1%] in Tennessee, and seroprevalence from 1.5% [CrI: 1.2%-2.0%] in Vermont to 23% [CrI: 20%-28%] in New York. Cumulatively, reported cases correspond to only one third of actual infections. The use of this simple and easy-to-communicate approach to estimating COVID-19 prevalence and seroprevalence will improve the ability to make public health decisions that effectively respond to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.     

Interferons and other cytokines,genetics and beyond in COVID-19 and autoimmunity

Interferons are the best antiviral agents in vitro against SARS-CoV-2 so far and genetic defects in their signaling cascade or neutralization of alfa-interferons by autoantibodies come with more severe COVID-19. However, there is more, as the SARS-CoV-2 dysregulates not only innate immune mechanisms but also T and B cell repertoires. Most genetic, hematological and immunological studies in COVID-19 are at present phenomenological. However, these and antecedent studies contain the seed grains to resolve many unanswered questions and a whole range of testable hypotheses. What are the links, if existing, between genetics and the occurrence of interferon-neutralizing antibodies? Are NAGGED (neutralizing and generated by gene defect) antibodies involved or not? Is the autoimmune process cause or consequence of virus infection? What are the roles played by cytokine posttranslational modifications, such as proteolysis, glycosylation, citrullination and others? How is systemic autoimmunity linked with type 1 interferons? These questions place cytokines and growth factors at pole positions as keys to unlock basic mechanisms of infection and (auto)immunity. Related to cytokine research, (1) COVID-19 patients develop neutralizing autoantibodies, mainly against alpha interferons and it is not yet established whether this is the consequence or cause of virus replication. (2) The glycosylation of recombinant interferon-beta protects against breaking tolerance and the development of neutralizing antibodies. (3) SARS-CoV-2 induces severe inflammation and release of extracellular proteases leading to remnant epitopes, e.g. of cytokines. (4) In the rare event of homozygous cytokine gene segment deletions, observed neutralizing antibodies may be named NAGGED antibodies. (5) Severe cytolysis releases intracellular content into the extracellular milieu and leads to regulated degradation of intracellular proteins and selection of antibody repertoires, similar to those observed in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus. (6) Systematic studies of novel autoimmune diseases on single cytokines will complement the present picture about interferons. (7) Interferon neutralization in COVID-19 constitutes a preamble of more studies about cytokine-regulated proteolysis in the control of autoimmunity. Here we reformulate these seven conjectures into testable questions for future research.     

Characteristics of grass pollen seasons in areas of southern Spain and the United Kingdom

Spatial and temporal variations in daily grasspollen counts and weather variables aredescribed for two regions with differentbio-geographical and climatic regimes, southernSpain and the United Kingdom. Daily averagegrass pollen counts are considered from sixpollen-monitoring sites, three in southernSpain (Ciudad Real, Córdoba and Priego) andthree in the United Kingdom (Edinburgh,Worcester and Cambridge). Analysis shows thatrainfall and maximum temperatures are importantfactors controlling the magnitude of the grasspollen season in both southern Spain and theUnited Kingdom, and that the strength anddirection of the influence exerted by thesevariables varies with geographical location andtime.     

Investigating associations between COVID-19 mortality and population-level health and socioeconomic indicators in the United States: A modeling study

BackgroundWith the availability of multiple Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines and the predicted shortages in supply for the near future, it is necessary to allocate vaccines in a manner that minimizes severe outcomes, particularly deaths. To date, vaccination strategies in the United States have focused on individual characteristics such as age and occupation. Here, we assess the utility of population-level health and socioeconomic indicators as additional criteria for geographical allocation of vaccines.Methods and findingsCounty-level estimates of 14 indicators associated with COVID-19 mortality were extracted from public data sources. Effect estimates of the individual indicators were calculated with univariate models. Presence of spatial autocorrelation was established using Moran’s I statistic. Spatial simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) models that account for spatial autocorrelation in response and predictors were used to assess (i) the proportion of variance in county-level COVID-19 mortality that can explained by identified health/socioeconomic indicators (R²); and (ii) effect estimates of each predictor.Adjusting for case rates, the selected indicators individually explain 24%–29% of the variability in mortality. Prevalence of chronic kidney disease and proportion of population residing in nursing homes have the highest R². Mortality is estimated to increase by 43 per thousand residents (95% CI: 37–49; p < 0.001) with a 1% increase in the prevalence of chronic kidney disease and by 39 deaths per thousand (95% CI: 34–44; p < 0.001) with 1% increase in population living in nursing homes. SAR models using multiple health/socioeconomic indicators explain 43% of the variability in COVID-19 mortality in US counties, adjusting for case rates. R² was found to be not sensitive to the choice of SAR model form. Study limitations include the use of mortality rates that are not age standardized, a spatial adjacency matrix that does not capture human flows among counties, and insufficient accounting for interaction among predictors.ConclusionsSignificant spatial autocorrelation exists in COVID-19 mortality in the US, and population health/socioeconomic indicators account for a considerable variability in county-level mortality. In the context of vaccine rollout in the US and globally, national and subnational estimates of burden of disease could inform optimal geographical allocation of vaccines.

Sasikiran Kandula and Jeffrey Shaman study population health and COVID-19 mortality in the United States.     

Estimating the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 in the United States using influenza surveillance,virologic testing,and mortality data: Four complementary approaches

Effectively designing and evaluating public health responses to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic requires accurate estimation of the prevalence of COVID-19 across the United States (US). Equipment shortages and varying testing capabilities have however hindered the usefulness of the official reported positive COVID-19 case counts. We introduce four complementary approaches to estimate the cumulative incidence of symptomatic COVID-19 in each state in the US as well as Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia, using a combination of excess influenza-like illness reports, COVID-19 test statistics, COVID-19 mortality reports, and a spatially structured epidemic model. Instead of relying on the estimate from a single data source or method that may be biased, we provide multiple estimates, each relying on different assumptions and data sources. Across our four approaches emerges the consistent conclusion that on April 4, 2020, the estimated case count was 5 to 50 times higher than the official positive test counts across the different states. Nationally, our estimates of COVID-19 symptomatic cases as of April 4 have a likely range of 2.3 to 4.8 million, with possibly as many as 7.6 million cases, up to 25 times greater than the cumulative confirmed cases of about 311,000. Extending our methods to May 16, 2020, we estimate that cumulative symptomatic incidence ranges from 4.9 to 10.1 million, as opposed to 1.5 million positive test counts. The proposed combination of approaches may prove useful in assessing the burden of COVID-19 during resurgences in the US and other countries with comparable surveillance systems.     

Intergenerational coresidence and the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States

This paper investigates the relation between intergenerational coresidence and mortality from Covid-19 in 2020. Using a cross-section of U.S. counties, we show that this association is positive, sizeable, significant, and robust to the inclusion of several demographic and socio-economic controls. Furthermore, using evidence from past, pre-pandemic years, we argue that this positive, sizeable and significant association is somewhat specific to the Covid-19 pandemic.     

Time required for approval of new drugs in Canada,Australia, Sweden,the United Kingdom and the United States in 1996-1998

BACKGROUND: The timeliness with which national regulatory agencies approve new drugs for marketing affects health care professionals and patients. An unnecessarily long approval process delays access to new medications that may improve patients'' health status. The author compared drug approval times in Canada, Australia, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States. METHODS: Application and approval dates of new chemical or biological substances (excluding diagnostic products, and new salts, esters, dosage forms and combinations of previously approved substances) approved for marketing in the 5 countries from January 1996 to December 1998 were requested from the relevant pharmaceutical companies. Data on new drug approvals during the study period were also obtained from the national drug regulatory agencies in Canada, Australia and Sweden and from publications of the US Food and Drug Administration. RESULTS: A total of 219 new drugs were identified as being approved in at least one of the countries during the study period: 23 (10.5%) in all 5 countries, 23 (10.5%) in 4, 27 (12.3%) in 3, 42 (19.2%) in 2, and 104 (47.5%) in 1 country. By individual nation, 97 drugs were identified as being approved in Canada, 94 in Australia, 107 in Sweden, 55 in the UK and 123 in the US. Approval times in Canada and Australia were similar (medians 518 and 526 days respectively), but both countries had significantly longer approval times than Sweden (median 371 days), the UK (median 308 days) and the US (median 369 days). This pattern was consistent across all 3 years and for the 23 new drugs approved in all 5 countries during the 3-year period. Median approval times in Canada were similar in all of the reviewing divisions of Health Canada''s Therapeutic Product Program (539-574 days) except the Central Nervous System Division (428 days) and the Bureau of Biologics and Radiopharmaceuticals (698 days). INTERPRETATION: Median drug approval times during 1996-1998 decreased by varying amounts from the 1995 values in all 5 countries. However, the median approval time in Canada continues to be significantly longer than the times achieved in Sweden, the UK and the US, and it remains considerably longer than Canada''s own target of 355 days for all new drugs.     

Intake assessment of L-ergothioneine in some European countries and in the United States

L-ergothioneine is an amino acid synthetized by fungi and mycobacteria that cannot be synthesized by other species. It has been detected in plants, animals, and the human body. In the last few years, it has been recognized as a good antioxidant and, recently, it has also been related to other properties besides antioxidant properties. Even though few studies on the toxicity of L-ergothioneine have been carried out, evidence suggests that L-ergothioneine is not harmful to health. Considering that L-ergothioneine has increasingly been linked to positive effects on human health, coupled with the fact that it seems to be safe for human consumption, this molecule may be suitable for use as an ingredient in foods. On the other hand, despite the positive effects reported for this molecule, no estimate of L-ergothioneine intake has been carried out until now. Thus, the aim of this work is to estimate the intake of L-ergothioneine through food consumption of several European countries and the United States. Values were estimated by using the deterministic and probabilistic approach. Results show that the populations with the highest intake of L-ergothioneine correspond to Italian population, both for children and adults.     

Risk Factors for Death in 632 Patients with Sickle Cell Disease in the United States and United Kingdom

Background

The role of pulmonary hypertension as a cause of mortality in sickle cell disease (SCD) is controversial.

Methods and Results

We evaluated the relationship between an elevated estimated pulmonary artery systolic pressure and mortality in patients with SCD. We followed patients from the walk-PHaSST screening cohort for a median of 29 months. A tricuspid regurgitation velocity (TRV)≥3.0 m/s cuttof, which has a 67–75% positive predictive value for mean pulmonary artery pressure ≥25 mm Hg was used. Among 572 subjects, 11.2% had TRV≥3.0 m/sec. Among 582 with a measured NT-proBNP, 24.1% had values ≥160 pg/mL. Of 22 deaths during follow-up, 50% had a TRV≥3.0 m/sec. At 24 months the cumulative survival was 83% with TRV≥3.0 m/sec and 98% with TRV<3.0 m/sec (p<0.0001). The hazard ratios for death were 11.1 (95% CI 4.1–30.1; p<0.0001) for TRV≥3.0 m/sec, 4.6 (1.8–11.3; p = 0.001) for NT-proBNP≥160 pg/mL, and 14.9 (5.5–39.9; p<0.0001) for both TRV≥3.0 m/sec and NT-proBNP≥160 pg/mL. Age >47 years, male gender, chronic transfusions, WHO class III–IV, increased hemolytic markers, ferritin and creatinine were also associated with increased risk of death.

Conclusions

A TRV≥3.0 m/sec occurs in approximately 10% of individuals and has the highest risk for death of any measured variable.

The study is registered in ClinicalTrials.gov with identifier

{"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00492531","term_id":"NCT00492531"}}NCT00492531     

Distribution of human virus contamination in shellfish from different growing areas in Greece,Spain, Sweden,and the United Kingdom

Viral pollution in shellfish has been analyzed simultaneously across a wide range of geographical regions, with emphasis on the concomitant variations in physicochemical characteristics and social features. The methods for sample treatment and for the detection of human enteric viruses were optimized by the participating laboratories. The second part of this study involves the selection of a protocol for virus detection, which was validated by analyzing the distribution and concentration of human viral pathogens under diverse conditions during an 18-month period in four European countries. Shellfish-growing areas from diverse countries in the north and south of Europe were defined and studied, and the microbiological quality of the shellfish was analyzed. Human adenovirus, Norwalk-like virus, and enterovirus were identified as contaminants of shellfish in all the participating countries. Hepatitis A virus was also isolated in all areas except Sweden. The seasonal distribution of viral contamination was also described. Norwalk-like virus appeared to be the only group of viruses that demonstrated seasonal variation, with lower concentrations occurring during warm months. The depuration treatments currently applied were shown to be adequate for reducing Escherichia coli levels but ineffective for the elimination of viral particles. The human adenoviruses detected by PCR correlate with the presence of other human viruses and could be useful as a molecular index of viral contamination in shellfish.     

Access to and safety of COVID-19 convalescent plasma in the United States Expanded Access Program: A national registry study

BackgroundThe United States (US) Expanded Access Program (EAP) to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) convalescent plasma was initiated in response to the rapid spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative agent of COVID-19. While randomized clinical trials were in various stages of development and enrollment, there was an urgent need for widespread access to potential therapeutic agents. The objective of this study is to report on the demographic, geographical, and chronological characteristics of patients in the EAP, and key safety metrics following transfusion of COVID-19 convalescent plasma.Methods and findingsMayo Clinic served as the central institutional review board for all participating facilities, and any US physician could participate as a local physician–principal investigator. Eligible patients were hospitalized, were aged 18 years or older, and had—or were at risk of progression to—severe or life-threatening COVID-19; eligible patients were enrolled through the EAP central website. Blood collection facilities rapidly implemented programs to collect convalescent plasma for hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Demographic and clinical characteristics of all enrolled patients in the EAP were summarized. Temporal patterns in access to COVID-19 convalescent plasma were investigated by comparing daily and weekly changes in EAP enrollment in response to changes in infection rate at the state level. Geographical analyses on access to convalescent plasma included assessing EAP enrollment in all national hospital referral regions, as well as assessing enrollment in metropolitan areas and less populated areas that did not have access to COVID-19 clinical trials. From April 3 to August 23, 2020, 105,717 hospitalized patients with severe or life-threatening COVID-19 were enrolled in the EAP. The majority of patients were 60 years of age or older (57.8%), were male (58.4%), and had overweight or obesity (83.8%). There was substantial inclusion of minorities and underserved populations: 46.4% of patients were of a race other than white, and 37.2% of patients were of Hispanic ethnicity. Chronologically and geographically, increases in the number of both enrollments and transfusions in the EAP closely followed confirmed infections across all 50 states. Nearly all national hospital referral regions enrolled and transfused patients in the EAP, including both in metropolitan and in less populated areas. The incidence of serious adverse events was objectively low (<1%), and the overall crude 30-day mortality rate was 25.2% (95% CI, 25.0% to 25.5%). This registry study was limited by the observational and pragmatic study design that did not include a control or comparator group; thus, the data should not be used to infer definitive treatment effects.ConclusionsThese results suggest that the EAP provided widespread access to COVID-19 convalescent plasma in all 50 states, including for underserved racial and ethnic minority populations. The study design of the EAP may serve as a model for future efforts when broad access to a treatment is needed in response to an emerging infectious disease.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT#: {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT04338360","term_id":"NCT04338360"}}NCT04338360.

In an observational study of registry data, Jonathon Senefeld and colleagues study factors related to patient enrollment in the Expanded Access Program for use of COVID-19 convalescent plasma in the United States.