Estimating infection attack rates and severity in real time during an influenza pandemic: analysis of serial cross-sectional serologic surveillance data

Background

In an emerging influenza pandemic, estimating severity (the probability of a severe outcome, such as hospitalization, if infected) is a public health priority. As many influenza infections are subclinical, sero-surveillance is needed to allow reliable real-time estimates of infection attack rate (IAR) and severity.

Methods and Findings

We tested 14,766 sera collected during the first wave of the 2009 pandemic in Hong Kong using viral microneutralization. We estimated IAR and infection-hospitalization probability (IHP) from the serial cross-sectional serologic data and hospitalization data. Had our serologic data been available weekly in real time, we would have obtained reliable IHP estimates 1 wk after, 1–2 wk before, and 3 wk after epidemic peak for individuals aged 5–14 y, 15–29 y, and 30–59 y. The ratio of IAR to pre-existing seroprevalence, which decreased with age, was a major determinant for the timeliness of reliable estimates. If we began sero-surveillance 3 wk after community transmission was confirmed, with 150, 350, and 500 specimens per week for individuals aged 5–14 y, 15–19 y, and 20–29 y, respectively, we would have obtained reliable IHP estimates for these age groups 4 wk before the peak. For 30–59 y olds, even 800 specimens per week would not have generated reliable estimates until the peak because the ratio of IAR to pre-existing seroprevalence for this age group was low. The performance of serial cross-sectional sero-surveillance substantially deteriorates if test specificity is not near 100% or pre-existing seroprevalence is not near zero. These potential limitations could be mitigated by choosing a higher titer cutoff for seropositivity. If the epidemic doubling time is longer than 6 d, then serial cross-sectional sero-surveillance with 300 specimens per week would yield reliable estimates when IAR reaches around 6%–10%.

Conclusions

Serial cross-sectional serologic data together with clinical surveillance data can allow reliable real-time estimates of IAR and severity in an emerging pandemic. Sero-surveillance for pandemics should be considered. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

A Large Proportion of the Mexican Population Remained Susceptible to A(H1N1)pdm09 Infection One Year after the Emergence of 2009 Influenza Pandemic

Background

The 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic initially affected Mexico from April 2009 to July 2010. By August 2010, a fourth of the population had received the monovalent vaccine against the pandemic virus (A(H1N1)pdm09). To assess the proportion of the Mexican population who remained potentially susceptible to infection throughout the summer of 2010, we estimated the population seroprevalence to A(H1N1)pdm09 in a serosurvey of blood donors.

Methods

We evaluated baseline cross-reactivity to the pandemic strain and set the threshold for seropositivity using pre-pandemic (2005–2008) stored serum samples and sera from confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 infected individuals. Between June and September 2010, a convenience sample serosurvey of adult blood donors, children, and adolescents was conducted in six states of Mexico. Sera were tested by the microneutralization (MN) and hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assays, and regarded seropositive if antibody titers were equal or exceeded 1:40 for MN and 1:20 for HI. Age-standardized seroprevalence were calculated using the 2010 National Census population.

Results

Sera from 1,484 individuals were analyzed; 1,363 (92%) were blood donors, and 121 (8%) children or adolescents aged ≤19 years. Mean age (standard deviation) was 31.4 (11.5) years, and 276 (19%) were women. A total of 516 (35%) participants declared history of influenza vaccination after April 2009. The age-standardized seroprevalence to A(H1N1)pdm09 was 48% by the MN and 41% by the HI assays, respectively. The youngest quintile, aged 1 to 22 years, had the highest the seroprevalence; 61% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 56, 66%) for MN, and 56% (95% CI: 51, 62%) for HI.

Conclusions

Despite high transmission of A(H1N1)pdm09 observed immediately after its emergence and extensive vaccination, over a half of the Mexican population remained potentially susceptible to A(H1N1)pdm09 infection. Subsequent influenza seasons with high transmission of A(H1N1)pdm09, as 2011–2012 and 2013–2014, are compatible with these findings.     

Determinants of Influenza Transmission in South East Asia: Insights from a Household Cohort Study in Vietnam

To guide control policies, it is important that the determinants of influenza transmission are fully characterized. Such assessment is complex because the risk of influenza infection is multifaceted and depends both on immunity acquired naturally or via vaccination and on the individual level of exposure to influenza in the community or in the household. Here, we analyse a large household cohort study conducted in 2007–2010 in Vietnam using innovative statistical methods to ascertain in an integrative framework the relative contribution of variables that influence the transmission of seasonal (H1N1, H3N2, B) and pandemic H1N1pdm09 influenza. Influenza infection was diagnosed by haemagglutination-inhibition (HI) antibody assay of paired serum samples. We used a Bayesian data augmentation Markov chain Monte Carlo strategy based on digraphs to reconstruct unobserved chains of transmission in households and estimate transmission parameters. The probability of transmission from an infected individual to another household member was 8% (95% CI, 6%, 10%) on average, and varied with pre-season titers, age and household size. Within households of size 3, the probability of transmission from an infected member to a child with low pre-season HI antibody titers was 27% (95% CI 21%–35%). High pre-season HI titers were protective against infection, with a reduction in the hazard of infection of 59% (95% CI, 44%–71%) and 87% (95% CI, 70%–96%) for intermediate (1∶20–1∶40) and high (≥1∶80) HI titers, respectively. Even after correcting for pre-season HI titers, adults had half the infection risk of children. Twenty six percent (95% CI: 21%, 30%) of infections may be attributed to household transmission. Our results highlight the importance of integrated analysis by influenza sub-type, age and pre-season HI titers in order to infer influenza transmission risks in and outside of the household.     

Prospective Study of Avian Influenza Virus Infections among Rural Thai Villagers

Background

In 2008, 800 rural Thai adults living within Kamphaeng Phet Province were enrolled in a prospective cohort study of zoonotic influenza transmission. Serological analyses of enrollment sera suggested this cohort had experienced subclinical avian influenza virus (AIV) infections with H9N2 and H5N1 viruses.

Methods

After enrollment, participants were contacted weekly for 24mos for acute influenza-like illnesses (ILI). Cohort members confirmed to have influenza A infections were enrolled with their household contacts in a family transmission study involving paired sera and respiratory swab collections. Cohort members also provided sera at 12 and 24 months after enrollment. Serologic and real-time RT-PCR assays were performed against avian, swine, and human influenza viruses.

Results

Over the 2 yrs of follow-up, 81 ILI investigations in the cohort were conducted; 31 (38%) were identified as influenza A infections by qRT-PCR. Eighty-three household contacts were enrolled; 12 (14%) reported ILIs, and 11 (92%) of those were identified as influenza infections. A number of subjects were found to have slightly elevated antibodies against avian-like A/Hong Kong/1073/1999(H9N2) virus: 21 subjects (2.7%) at 12-months and 40 subjects (5.1%) at 24-months. Among these, two largely asymptomatic acute infections with H9N2 virus were detected by >4-fold increases in annual serologic titers (final titers 1∶80). While controlling for age and influenza vaccine receipt, moderate poultry exposure was significantly associated with elevated H9N2 titers (adjusted OR = 2.3; 95% CI, 1.04–5.2) at the 24-month encounter. One subject had an elevated titer (1∶20) against H5N1 during follow-up.

Conclusions

From 2008–10, evidence for AIV infections was sparse among this rural population. Subclinical H9N2 AIV infections likely occurred, but serological results were confounded by antibody cross-reactions. There is a critical need for improved serological diagnostics to more accurately detect subclinical AIV infections in humans.     

Prevalence of Seropositivity to Pandemic Influenza A/H1N1 Virus in the United States following the 2009 Pandemic

Background

2009 pandemic influenza A/H1N1 (A(H1N1)pdm09) was first detected in the United States in April 2009 and resulted in a global pandemic. We conducted a serologic survey to estimate the cumulative incidence of A(H1N1)pdm09 through the end of 2009 when pandemic activity had waned in the United States.

Methods

We conducted a pair of cross sectional serologic surveys before and after the spring/fall waves of the pandemic for evidence of seropositivity (titer ≥40) using the hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay. We tested a baseline sample of 1,142 serum specimens from the 2007–2008 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), and 2,759 serum specimens submitted for routine screening to clinical diagnostic laboratories from ten representative sites.

Results

The age-adjusted prevalence of seropositivity to A(H1N1)pdm09 by year-end 2009 was 36.9% (95%CI: 31.7–42.2%). After adjusting for baseline cross-reactive antibody, pandemic vaccination coverage and the sensitivity/specificity of the HI assay, we estimate that 20.2% (95%CI: 10.1–28.3%) of the population was infected with A(H1N1)pdm09 by December 2009, including 53.3% (95%CI: 39.0–67.1%) of children aged 5–17 years.

Conclusions

By December 2009, approximately one-fifth of the US population, or 61.9 million persons, may have been infected with A(H1N1)pdm09, including around half of school-aged children.     

Cytotoxic T Lymphocytes Established by Seasonal Human Influenza Cross-React against 2009 Pandemic H1N1 Influenza Virus

While few children and young adults have cross-protective antibodies to the pandemic H1N1 2009 (pdmH1N1) virus, the illness remains mild. The biological reasons for these epidemiological observations are unclear. In this study, we demonstrate that the bulk memory cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs) established by seasonal influenza viruses from healthy individuals who have not been exposed to pdmH1N1 can directly lyse pdmH1N1-infected target cells and produce gamma interferon (IFN-γ) and tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α). Using influenza A virus matrix protein 1 (M1_58-66) epitope-specific CTLs isolated from healthy HLA-A2⁺ individuals, we further found that M1_58-66 epitope-specific CTLs efficiently killed both M1_58-66 peptide-pulsed and pdmH1N1-infected target cells ex vivo. These M1_58-66-specific CTLs showed an effector memory phenotype and expressed CXCR3 and CCR5 chemokine receptors. Of 94 influenza A virus CD8 T-cell epitopes obtained from the Immune Epitope Database (IEDB), 17 epitopes are conserved in pdmH1N1, and more than half of these conserved epitopes are derived from M1 protein. In addition, 65% (11/17) of these epitopes were 100% conserved in seasonal influenza vaccine H1N1 strains during the last 20 years. Importantly, seasonal influenza vaccination could expand the functional M1_58-66 epitope-specific CTLs in 20% (4/20) of HLA-A2⁺ individuals. Our results indicated that memory CTLs established by seasonal influenza A viruses or vaccines had cross-reactivity against pdmH1N1. These might explain, at least in part, the unexpected mild pdmH1N1 illness in the community and also might provide some valuable insights for the future design of broadly protective vaccines to prevent influenza, especially pandemic influenza.Since its first identification in North America in April 2009, the novel pandemic H1N1 2009 (pdmH1N1) virus has been spreading in humans worldwide, giving rise to the first pandemic in the 21st century (13, 18). The pdmH1N1 virus contains a unique gene constellation, with its NA and M gene segments being derived from the Eurasian swine lineage while the other gene segments originated from the swine triple-reassortant H1N1 lineage. The triple-reassortant swine viruses have in turn derived the HA, NP, and NS gene segments from the classical swine lineage (20). The 1918 pandemic virus gave rise to both the seasonal influenza H1N1 and the classical swine H1N1 virus lineages (41). Evolution in different hosts during the subsequent 90 years has led to increasing antigenic differences between recent seasonal H1N1 viruses and swine H1 viruses (42). Thus, younger individuals have no antibodies that cross neutralize pdmH1N1, while those over 65 years of age are increasingly likely to have cross-neutralizing antibodies to pdmH1N1 (10, 25).Currently available seasonal influenza vaccines do not induce cross-reactive antibodies against this novel virus in any age group (10, 25). In animal models, it has been shown that pdmH1N1 replicated more efficiently and caused more severe pathological lesions than the current seasonal influenza virus (28). However, most patients with pdmH1N1 virus infection show a mild illness comparable to seasonal influenza (9, 42). The incidence of severe cases caused by pdmH1N1 was not significantly higher than that caused by human seasonal influenza viruses (43). These findings imply that seasonal influenza A virus-specific memory T cells preexisting in previously infected individuals may have cross-protection to this novel pdmH1N1.Cross-reactivity of influenza A virus-specific T-cell immunity against heterosubtypic strains which are serologically distinct has been demonstrated (5, 29, 33, 47). Humans who have not been exposed to avian influenza A (H5N1) virus do have cross-reactive memory CD4 and CD8 T cells to a wide range of H5N1 peptides (33, 47). More recently, one study also showed that some seasonal influenza A virus-specific memory T cells in individuals without exposure to prior pdmH1N1 infection can recognize pdmH1N1 (24). However, the results in most of these studies were determined by the gamma interferon (IFN-γ) responses to influenza virus peptides. Although the recalled IFN-γ response is commonly used to detect memory CD4 and CD8 T cells, the activated T cells that bind major histocompatibility complex (MHC)-presented peptide are not necessarily capable of lysing the target cells (6). In addition, the peptides, but not the whole virus, may not be able to fully represent the human cross-response against the virus as a whole. Therefore, in addition to cytokine production, the demonstration of direct antigen-specific cytotoxicity of cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs) against both peptide-pulsed and virus-infected target cells is needed for better understanding of human CTL responses against pdmH1N1 virus.In this study, using bulk memory CTLs and epitope-specific CTLs established by seasonal influenza A viruses and epitope-specific peptide from healthy individuals, respectively, we evaluated their cross-cytotoxicity and cytokine responses to pdmH1N1. We also examined the expression of chemokine receptors CXCR3 and CCR5, which could help CTLs to migrate to the site of infection. In addition, to understand whether the seasonal influenza vaccines have benefit for people who have not been exposed to pdmH1N1, we further examined the ability of seasonal influenza vaccines to induce the conserved M1_58-66 epitope-specific CTLs in HLA-A2-seropositive healthy individuals.     

The Role of Social Contacts and Original Antigenic Sin in Shaping the Age Pattern of Immunity to Seasonal Influenza

Recent serological studies of seasonal influenza A in humans suggest a striking characteristic profile of immunity against age, which holds across different countries and against different subtypes of influenza. For both H1N1 and H3N2, the proportion of the population seropositive to recently circulated strains peaks in school-age children, reaches a minimum between ages 35–65, then rises again in the older ages. This pattern is little understood. Variable mixing between different age classes can have a profound effect on disease dynamics, and is hence the obvious candidate explanation for the profile, but using a mathematical model of multiple influenza strains, we see that age dependent transmission based on mixing data from social contact surveys cannot on its own explain the observed pattern. Instead, the number of seropositive individuals in a population may be a consequence of ‘original antigenic sin’; if the first infection of a lifetime dominates subsequent immune responses, we demonstrate that it is possible to reproduce the observed relationship between age and seroprevalence. We propose a candidate mechanism for this relationship, by which original antigenic sin, along with antigenic drift and vaccination, results in the age profile of immunity seen in empirical studies.     

Incidence of H1N1 2009 virus infection through the analysis of paired plasma specimens among blood donors, France

Background

Knowledge of the age-specific prevalence of seroprotection and incidence of seroconversion infection is necessary to complement clinical surveillance data and statistical models. It provides the basis for estimating the future impact of influenza A (H1N1pdm09) and implementing appropriate prevention and response strategies.

Methods

Using a cross-sectional design, two-stage stratified sampling and paired plasma samples, we estimated the age-specific prevalence of a protective level of H1N1pdm09 antibodies in the French adult population before and after the 2009/10 pandemic, and the proportion of those susceptible that seroconverted due to infection, from a single sample of 1,936 blood donors aged 20–70 years in mainland France in June 2010. Samples with a haemagglutination inhibition (HI) titre ≥1∶40 were considered seropositive, and seroconversion due to infection was defined as a 4-fold increase in titre in the absence of H1N1pdm09 vaccination or pre-pandemic seropositivity.

Results

Out of the 1,936 donors, 1,708 were included in the analysis. Seroprevalence before the pandemic was 6.7% (95% CI 5.0, 8.9) with no significant differences by age-group (p = 0.3). Seroprevalence afterwards was 23.0% (95% CI 17.7, 29.3) with 20–29 year olds having a higher level than older groups (p<0.001). Seroconversion due to infection was 12.2% (95% CI 6.9, 20.5). Younger age-group, vaccination against H1N1 and being seropositive before the pandemic were strongly associated with post-pandemic seropositivity.

Conclusions

Before the 2009/2010 winter influenza season, only 6.7% of the French mainland population aged 20–70 had a level of antibodies usually considered protective. During the first pandemic wave, 12.2% of the population seroconverted due to infection and the seroprevalence after the wave rose to 23%, either due to prepandemic seropositivity, infection or vaccination. This relatively low latter figure contributed to an extension of target groups for influenza vaccination for the 2010/2011 season.     

Seroprevalence of Herpes Simplex Virus Type 1 and 2 in Taiwan and Risk Factor Analysis, 2007

Background

Herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) and 2 (HSV-2) are common human pathogens and might cause severe illness. Following primary infection, the viruses establish lifelong latent infection and are transmitted by close contact, both sexual and nonsexual. However, the information about the seroprevalence of HSV-1 and HSV-2 across all age groups is limited.

Methods

Residual sera collected during the nationwide serosurvey in 2007 in Taiwan were selected for the study. The enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay was used to detect anti-HSV-1 and anti-HSV-2 type-specific glycoprotein IgG. Demographics and personal health data were used for risk analysis.

Results

A total of 1411 and 1072 serum samples were included for anti-HSV-1 and anti-HSV-2 seroprevalence analysis, respectively. The weighted overall seroprevalence was 63.2% for HSV-1, and 7.7% for HSV-2, respectively. The HSV-1 seropositive rate was 19.2% for those less than 5 years old, increased to 46.4% for those aged 5–13 years, 60.9% for those aged 14–29 years, and reached as much as 95.0% for those aged over 30 years. In contrast, the HSV-2 seropositve rate was 1.6% for those less than 30 years old, rose to 10.1% for those age 30–39 years, and was up to 31.2% for those aged over 60 years. A significantly higher HSV-2 seropositive rate was noted in females than males aged over 40 years (26.3% v.s. 16.8%), and the overall HSV-2 seropositive rate was almost twice higher in females than males. Smoking history, drinking habit, and educational level were associated with the HSV-1 seropositivity. Female gender and rural residence were independent factors for the HSV-2 seropositivity.

Conclusions

An obvious increase of primary HSV-1 infection occurred in late adolescents and young adults, joined by the rise of HSV-2 infection in middle-aged adults, especially females. The acquistion and transmission of HSV warrant further studies in the susceptible population.     

H3N2v and Other Influenza Epidemic Risk Based on Age-Specific Estimates of Sero-Protection and Contact Network Interactions

Cases of a novel swine-origin influenza A(H3N2) variant (H3N2v) have recently been identified in the US, primarily among children. We estimated potential epidemic attack rates (ARs) based on age-specific estimates of sero-susceptibility and social interactions. A contact network model previously established for the Greater Vancouver Area (GVA), Canada was used to estimate average epidemic (infection) ARs for the emerging H3N2v and comparator viruses (H1N1pdm09 and an extinguished H3N2 seasonal strain) based on typical influenza characteristics, basic reproduction number (R₀), and effective contacts taking into account age-specific sero-protection rates (SPRs). SPRs were assessed in sera collected from the GVA in 2009 or earlier (pre-H1N1pdm09) and fall 2010 (post-H1N1pdm09, seasonal A/Brisbane/10/2007(H3N2), and H3N2v) by hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay. SPR was assigned per convention based on proportion with HI antibody titre ≥40 (SPR40). Recognizing that the HI titre ≥40 was established as the 50%sero-protective threshold we also explored for ½SPR40, SPR80 and a blended gradient defined as: ¼SPR20, ½SPR40, ¾SPR80, SPR160. Base case analysis assumed R₀ = 1.40, but we also explored R₀ as high as 1.80. With R₀ = 1.40 and SPR40, simulated ARs were well aligned with field observations for H1N1pdm09 incidence (AR: 32%), sporadic detections without a third epidemic wave post-H1N1pdm09 (negligible AR<0.1%) as well as A/Brisbane/10/2007(H3N2) seasonal strain extinction and antigenic drift replacement (negligible AR<0.1%). Simulated AR for the novel swine-origin H3N2v was 6%, highest in children 6–11years (16%). However, with modification to SPR thresholds per above, H3N2v AR ≥20% became possible. At SPR40, H3N2v AR ≥10%, ≥15% or ≥30%, occur if R₀≥1.48, ≥1.56 or ≥1.86, respectively. Based on conventional assumptions, the novel swine-origin H3N2v does not currently pose a substantial pandemic threat. If H3N2v epidemics do occur, overall community ARs are unlikely to exceed typical seasonal influenza experience. However risk assessment may change with time and depends crucially upon the validation of epidemiological features of influenza, notably the serologic correlate of protection and R₀.     

Sex- and age-related differences in morbidity rates of 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 virus of swine origin in Japan

Background

The objective of the present study was to determine whether the morbidity rates of the 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 virus (pdmH1N1) varied by age and/or sex.

Methods and Findings

Retrospective analysis of 2,024,367 cases of pdmH1N1 was performed using the national surveillance data from influenza sentinel points in Japan. The male-to-female morbidity ratios (M/F ratios) in nineteen age groups were estimated as the primary outcome. The M/F ratios for pdmH1N1 influenza were: >1 in age groups <20 years and ≥80 years (p<0.001); <1 in age groups 20–79 years (p<0.001). This data suggests that males <20 years of age may be more likely to suffer from pdmH1N1 influenza than females in the same age categories. When the infection pattern for pdmH1N1was compared with that of seasonal influenza outbreaks between 2000 and 2008, the M/F ratio for pdmH1N1 influenza was higher in ages 3–29 years and lower in ages 40–79 years. Because the present study was based on the national surveillance, it was impossible to estimate the morbidity rate for the Japanese population. It is also likely that the data did not capture asymptomatic or mild infections.

Conclusions

Although exposure to the pdmH1N1 virus is assumed to be similar in both boys and girls, M/F ratios were >1 in those younger than 20 years. The subsequent reversal of the M/F ratio in the adult generation could be due to several possibilities, including: greater immunity among adult males, more asymptomatic infections among males, less reporting of illness by males, or differences in exposure to the virus and probability of visiting a clinic. These results suggest that the infection and virulence patterns of pdmH1N1 are more complex than previously considered.     

Risk factors and immunity in a nationally representative population following the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic

Background

Understanding immunity, incidence and risk factors of the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic (2009 H1N1) through a national seroprevalence study is necessary for informing public health interventions and disease modelling.

Methods and Findings

We collected 1687 serum samples and individual risk factor data between November-2009 to March-2010, three months after the end of the 2009 H1N1 wave in New Zealand. Participants were randomly sampled from selected general practices countrywide and hospitals in the Auckland region. Baseline immunity was measured from 521 sera collected during 2004 to April-2009. Haemagglutination inhibition (HI) antibody titres of ≥1∶40 against 2009 H1N1 were considered seroprotective as well as seropositive. The overall community seroprevalence was 26.7% (CI:22.6–29.4). The seroprevalence varied across age and ethnicity. Children aged 5–19 years had the highest seroprevalence (46.7%;CI:38.3–55.0), a significant increase from the baseline (14%;CI:7.2–20.8). Older adults aged ≥60 had no significant difference in seroprevalence between the serosurvey (24.8%;CI:18.7–30.9) and baseline (22.6%;CI:15.3–30.0). Pacific peoples had the highest seroprevalence (49.5%;CI:35.1–64.0). There was no significant difference in seroprevalence between both primary (29.6%;CI:22.6–36.5) and secondary healthcare workers (25.3%;CI:20.8–29.8) and community participants. No significant regional variation was observed. Multivariate analysis indicated age as the most important risk factor followed by ethnicity. Previous seasonal influenza vaccination was associated with higher HI titres. Approximately 45.2% of seropositive individuals reported no symptoms.

Conclusions

Based on age and ethnicity standardisation to the New Zealand Population, about 29.5% of New Zealanders had antibody titers at a level consistent with immunity to 2009 H1N1. Around 18.3% of New Zealanders were infected with the virus during the first wave including about one child in every three. Older people were protected due to pre-existing immunity. Age was the most important factor associated with infection followed by ethnicity. Healthcare workers did not appear to have an increased risk of infection compared with the general population.     

Seroepidemiology of Crimean-Congo Haemorrhagic Fever among cattle in Cameroon: Implications from a One Health perspective

BackgroundCrimean-Congo Haemorrhagic Fever (CCHF) is a tick-borne viral zoonotic disease distributed across several continents and recognized as an ongoing health threat. In humans, the infection can progress to a severe disease with high fatality, raising public health concerns due to the limited prophylactic and therapeutic options available. Animal species, clinically unaffected by the virus, serve as viral reservoirs and amplifier hosts, and can be a valuable tool for surveillance. Little is known about the occurrence and prevalence of Crimean-Congo Haemorrhagic Fever Virus (CCHFV) in Cameroon. Knowledge on CCHFV exposure and the factors associated with its presence in sentinel species are a valuable resource to better understand transmission dynamics and assess local risks for zoonotic disease emergence.Methods and findingsWe conducted a CCHFV serological survey and risk factor analysis for animal level seropositivity in pastoral and dairy cattle in the North West Region (NWR) and the Vina Division (VD) of the Adamawa Region in Cameroon. Seroprevalence estimates were adjusted for sampling design-effects and test performance. In addition, explanatory multivariable logistic regression mixed-effects models were fit to estimate the effect of animal characteristics, husbandry practices, risk contacts and ecological features on the serological status of pastoral cattle. The overall seroprevalence was 56.0% (95% CI 53.5–58.6) and 6.7% (95% CI 2.6–16.1) among pastoral and dairy cattle, respectively. Animals going on transhumance had twice the odds of being seropositive (OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.1–3.8), indicating that animal movements could be implicated in disease expansion. From an ecological perspective, absolute humidity (OR 0.6, 95% CI 0.4–0.9) and shrub density (OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.4–3.2) were associated with seropositivity, which suggests an underlying viral dynamic connecting vertebrate host and ticks in a complex transmission network.ConclusionsThis study demonstrated high seroprevalence levels of CCHFV antibodies in cattle in Cameroon indicating a potential risk to human populations. However, current understanding of the underlying dynamics of CCHFV locally and the real risk for human populations is incomplete. Further studies designed using a One Health approach are required to improve local knowledge of the disease, host interactions and environmental risk factors. This information is crucial to better project the risks for human populations located in CCHFV-suitable ecological niches.     

Toxocara Infection in Psychiatric Inpatients: A Case Control Seroprevalence Study

Background

There is poor knowledge about the epidemiology of toxocariasis in psychiatric patients.

Aims

Determine the seroepidemiology of Toxocara infection in psychiatric patients.

Methods

Through a case-control seroprevalence study, 128 psychiatric inpatients and 276 control subjects were compared for the presence of anti-Toxocara IgG antibodies in Durango, Mexico. Socio-demographic, clinical, and behavioral characteristics of inpatients associated with toxocariasis were also investigated.

Results

Six of the 128 (4.7%) psychiatric inpatients, and 3 (1.1%) of the 276 controls were positive for anti-Toxocara IgG antibodies (P = 0.03). Stratification by age showed that Toxocara seroprevalence was significantly (P = 0.02) higher in patients aged ≤50 years old (6/90∶6.7%) than controls of the same age (2/163∶1.2%). While Toxocara seroprevalence was similar in patients and controls aged >50 years old. Stratification by gender showed that Toxocara seroprevalence was significantly (P = 0.03) higher in female patients (2/37∶5.4%) than in female controls (0/166∶0%). No statistically significant associations between Toxocara seropositivity and clinical characteristics were found. In contrast, Toxocara seropositivity was associated with consumption of goat meat and raw sea snail.

Conclusions

This is the first report of toxocariasis in psychiatric inpatients in Mexico. Further studies with larger sample sizes are needed to elucidate the association of toxocariasis with psychiatric diseases. The role of the consumption of goat meat and raw sea snail in the transmission of Toxocara deserve further investigation.     

Prevalence of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus antibodies, Tampa Bay Florida--November-December, 2009

Background

In 2009, a novel influenza virus (2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus (pH1N1)) caused significant disease in the United States. Most states, including Florida, experienced a large fall wave of disease from September through November, after which disease activity decreased substantially. We determined the prevalence of antibodies due to the pH1N1 virus in Florida after influenza activity had peaked and estimated the proportion of the population infected with pH1N1 virus during the pandemic.

Methods

During November-December 2009, we collected leftover serum from a blood bank, a pediatric children''s hospital and a pediatric outpatient clinic in Tampa Bay Florida. Serum was tested for pH1N1 virus antibodies using the hemagglutination-inhibition (HI) assay. HI titers ≥40 were considered seropositive. We adjusted seroprevalence results to account for previously established HI assay specificity and sensitivity and employed a simple statistical model to estimate the proportion of seropositivity due to pH1N1 virus infection and vaccination.

Results

During the study time period, the overall seroprevalence in Tampa Bay, Florida was 25%, increasing to 30% after adjusting for HI assay sensitivity and specificity. We estimated that 5.9% of the population had vaccine-induced seropositivity while 25% had seropositivity secondary to pH1N1 virus infection. The highest cumulative incidence of pH1N1 virus infection was among children aged 5–17 years (53%) and young adults aged 18–24 years (47%), while adults aged ≥50 years had the lowest cumulative incidence (11–13%) of pH1N1 virus infection.

Conclusions

After the peak of the fall wave of the pandemic, an estimated one quarter of the Tampa Bay population had been infected with the pH1N1 virus. Consistent with epidemiologic trends observed during the pandemic, the highest burdens of disease were among school-aged children and young adults.     

A Serological Survey of Antibodies to H5, H7 and H9 Avian Influenza Viruses amongst the Duck-Related Workers in Beijing,China

The continued spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses of H5 and H7 subtypes and low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses of H5, H7 and H9 subtypes in birds and the subsequent infections in humans pose an ongoing pandemic threat. It has been proposed that poultry workers are at higher risk of exposure to HPAI or LPAI viruses and subsequently infection due to their repeated exposure to chickens or domestic waterfowl. The aim of this study was to examine the seroprevalence of antibodies against H5, H7 and H9 viruses amongst duck-related workers in Beijing, China and the risk factors associated with seropositivity. In March, 2011, 1741 participants were recruited from (1) commercial duck-breeding farms; (2) private duck-breeding farms; and (3) duck-slaughtering farms. Local villagers who bred ducks in their backyards were also recruited. A survey was administered by face-to-face interview, and blood samples were collected from subjects for antibody testing against H5, H7 and H9 viruses. We found that none of the subjects were seropositive for either H5 or H7 viruses, and only 0.7% (12/1741) had antibody against H9. A statistically significant difference in H9 antibody seroprevalence existed between the various categories of workers (P = 0.005), with the highest figures recorded amongst the villagers (1.7%). Independent risk factors associated with seropositivity toinfection with H9 virus included less frequent disinfection of worksite (OR, 5.13 [95% CI, 1.07–24.58]; P = 0.041; ≤ twice monthly versus>twice monthly) and handling ducks with wounds on hands (OR, 4.13 [95% CI, 1.26–13.57]; P = 0.019). Whilst the risk of infection with H5, H7 and H9 viruses appears to be low among duck-related workers in Beijing, China, ongoing monitoring of infection with the H9 virus is still warranted, especially amongst villagers who breed backyard ducks to monitor for any changes.     

Serological Response to Influenza Vaccination among Children Vaccinated for Multiple Influenza Seasons

Background

To evaluate if, among children aged 3 to 15 years, influenza vaccination for multiple seasons affects the proportion sero-protected.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Participants were 131 healthy children aged 3–15 years. Participants were vaccinated with trivalent inactivated seasonal influenza vaccine (TIV) over the 2005–06, 2006–07 and 2007–8 seasons. Number of seasons vaccinated were categorized as one (2007–08); two (2007–08 and 2006–07 or 2007–08 and 2005–06) or three (2005–06, 2006–07, and 2007–08). Pre- and post-vaccination sera were collected four weeks apart. Antibody titres were determined by hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) assay using antigens to A/Solomon Islands/03/06 (H1N1), A/Wisconsin/67/05 (H3N2) and B/Malaysia/2506/04. The proportions sero-protected were compared by number of seasons vaccinated using cut-points for seroprotection of 1∶40 vs. 1∶320. The proportions of children sero-protected against H1N1 and H3N2 was high (>85%) regardless of number of seasons vaccinated and regardless of cut-point for seroprotection. For B Malaysia there was no change in proportions sero-protected by number of seasons vaccinated; however the proportions protected were lower than for H1N1 and H3N2, and there was a lower proportion sero-protected when the higher, compared to lower, cut-point was used for sero-protection.

Conclusion/Significance

The proportion of children sero-protected is not affected by number of seasons vaccinated.     

Seroprevalence Following the Second Wave of Pandemic 2009 H1N1 Influenza in Pittsburgh,PA, USA

Background

In April 2009, a new pandemic strain of influenza infected thousands of persons in Mexico and the United States and spread rapidly worldwide. During the ensuing summer months, cases ebbed in the Northern Hemisphere while the Southern Hemisphere experienced a typical influenza season dominated by the novel strain. In the fall, a second wave of pandemic H1N1 swept through the United States, peaking in most parts of the country by mid October and returning to baseline levels by early December. The objective was to determine the seroprevalence of antibodies against the pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza strain by decade of birth among Pittsburgh-area residents.

Methods and Findings

Anonymous blood samples were obtained from clinical laboratories and categorized by decade of birth from 1920–2009. Using hemagglutination-inhibition assays, approximately 100 samples per decade (n = 846) were tested from blood samples drawn on hospital and clinic patients in mid-November and early December 2009. Age specific seroprevalences against pandemic H1N1 (A/California/7/2009) were measured and compared to seroprevalences against H1N1 strains that had previously circulated in the population in 2007, 1957, and 1918. (A/Brisbane/59/2007, A/Denver/1/1957, and A/South Carolina/1/1918). Stored serum samples from healthy, young adults from 2008 were used as a control group (n = 100). Seroprevalences against pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza varied by age group, with children age 10–19 years having the highest seroprevalence (45%), and persons age 70–79 years having the lowest (5%). The baseline seroprevalence among control samples from 18–24 year-olds was 6%. Overall seroprevalence against pandemic H1N1 across all age groups was approximately 21%.

Conclusions

After the peak of the second wave of 2009 H1N1, HAI seroprevalence results suggest that 21% of persons in the Pittsburgh area had become infected and developed immunity. Extrapolating to the entire US population, we estimate that at least 63 million persons became infected in 2009. As was observed among clinical cases, this sero-epidemiological study revealed highest infection rates among school-age children.     

Estimation of Transmission Parameters of H5N1 Avian Influenza Virus in Chickens

Despite considerable research efforts, little is yet known about key epidemiological parameters of H5N1 highly pathogenic influenza viruses in their avian hosts. Here we show how these parameters can be estimated using a limited number of birds in experimental transmission studies. Our quantitative estimates, based on Bayesian methods of inference, reveal that (i) the period of latency of H5N1 influenza virus in unvaccinated chickens is short (mean: 0.24 days; 95% credible interval: 0.099–0.48 days); (ii) the infectious period of H5N1 virus in unvaccinated chickens is approximately 2 days (mean: 2.1 days; 95%CI: 1.8–2.3 days); (iii) the reproduction number of H5N1 virus in unvaccinated chickens need not be high (mean: 1.6; 95%CI: 0.90–2.5), although the virus is expected to spread rapidly because it has a short generation interval in unvaccinated chickens (mean: 1.3 days; 95%CI: 1.0–1.5 days); and (iv) vaccination with genetically and antigenically distant H5N2 vaccines can effectively halt transmission. Simulations based on the estimated parameters indicate that herd immunity may be obtained if at least 80% of chickens in a flock are vaccinated. We discuss the implications for the control of H5N1 avian influenza virus in areas where it is endemic.     

Seroprevalence of Merkel Cell Polyomavirus in the General Rural Population of Anyang,China

Background

Despite the probably causal link between Merkel cell polyomavirus (MCPyV) infection and Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC), a rare but aggressive skin malignancy, little is known about the seroepidemiology of MCPyV among healthy adults in China.

Methods

Serum antibodies against MCPyV were evaluated by multiplex serology in a population-based study of 5548 adults (including 1587 heterosexual couples) aged 25–65 years who were enrolled from rural Anyang, China in 2007–2009. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the risk factors for the seropositivity of MCPyV.

Results

The seroprevalence for MCPyV was 61.0%. MCPyV seropositivity was significantly higher in males than in females (64.5% vs. 57.7%, P<0.001), and for both genders, showed a trend of increase with age (Male: P _trend<0.001; Female: P _trend<0.001). Furthermore, among antibody positives, antibody levels of MCPyV increased with advancing age (P _trend = 0.017). MCPyV seropositivity of one spouse was significantly associated with that of the other partner (Adjusted OR = 1.32, 95% CI: 1.07–1.62). However, there was no association between sexual behaviors and the seropositivity of MCPyV.

Conclusions

High seroprevalence of MCPyV was observed in healthy Chinese individuals. Serological evidence suggests that nonsexual horizontal spread of MCPyV can occur among family members, and further research in this regard is needed.