Dampening prey cycle overrides the impact of climate change on predator population dynamics: a long‐term demographic study on tawny owls

Predicting the dynamics of animal populations with different life histories requires careful understanding of demographic responses to multifaceted aspects of global changes, such as climate and trophic interactions. Continent‐scale dampening of vole population cycles, keystone herbivores in many ecosystems, has been recently documented across Europe. However, its impact on guilds of vole‐eating predators remains unknown. To quantify this impact, we used a 27‐year study of an avian predator (tawny owl) and its main prey (field vole) collected in Kielder Forest (UK) where vole dynamics shifted from a high‐ to a low‐amplitude fluctuation regime in the mid‐1990s. We measured the functional responses of four demographic rates to changes in prey dynamics and winter climate, characterized by wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (wNAO). First‐year and adult survival were positively affected by vole density in autumn but relatively insensitive to wNAO. The probability of breeding and number of fledglings were higher in years with high spring vole densities and negative wNAO (i.e. colder and drier winters). These functional responses were incorporated into a stochastic population model. The size of the predator population was projected under scenarios combining prey dynamics and winter climate to test whether climate buffers or alternatively magnifies the impact of changes in prey dynamics. We found the observed dampening vole cycles, characterized by low spring densities, drastically reduced the breeding probability of predators. Our results illustrate that (i) change in trophic interactions can override direct climate change effect; and (ii) the demographic resilience entailed by longevity and the occurrence of a floater stage may be insufficient to buffer hypothesized environmental changes. Ultimately, dampened prey cycles would drive our owl local population towards extinction, with winter climate regimes only altering persistence time. These results suggest that other vole‐eating predators are likely to be threatened by dampening vole cycles throughout Europe.     

Gradients in population fluctuations of Tengmalm's owl Aegolius funereus in Europe

Summary I studied the importance of geographical location, snow cover and food to the fluctuations in 30 breeding populations of Tengmalm's owl (Aegolius funereu) in Europe. Cyclicity indices were positively related both to latitude and longitude, but within Fennoscandia they were better correlated with snow cover. Population fluctuations increased northward, while food niche breadth and degree of site tenacity decreased northwards.Microtine fluctuations become more pronounced northwards and are more synchronized, while number of alternative prey increases southwards. These factors promote instability in North European and stability in central European owl populations. Furthermore, snow conditions were more important within Fennoscandia, since this small owl cannot hunt voles protected by deep snow. Environmental predictability and diversity of available food for Tengmalm's owl increase southwards in Europe. Thus, the owl is a resident generalist predator of small mammals and birds in central Europe and adopts a partial migration strategy (males being resident and females nomadic) in South and West Finland, changing its habits to nomadic microtine specialist in areas with pronounced vole cycles (in northern Fennoscandia). These changes fit well with the recent suggestion that gradients in density variations of small rodents are related to sustainable numbers of generalist predators.     

Climate change and perishable food hoards of an avian predator: Is the freezer still working?

Changing climate can modify predator–prey interactions and induce declines or local extinctions of species due to reductions in food availability. Species hoarding perishable food for overwinter survival, like predators, are predicted to be particularly susceptible to increasing temperatures. We analysed the influence of autumn and winter weather, and abundance of main prey (voles), on the food‐hoarding behaviour of a generalist predator, the Eurasian pygmy owl (Glaucidium passerinum), across 16 years in Finland. Fewer freeze–thaw events in early autumn delayed the initiation of food hoarding. Pygmy owls consumed more hoarded food with more frequent freeze–thaw events and deeper snow cover in autumn and in winter, and lower precipitation in winter. In autumn, the rotting of food hoards increased with precipitation. Hoards already present in early autumn were much more likely to rot than the ones initiated in late autumn. Rotten food hoards were used more in years of low food abundance than in years of high food abundance. Having rotten food hoards in autumn resulted in a lower future recapture probability of female owls. These results indicate that pygmy owls might be partly able to adapt to climate change by delaying food hoarding, but changes in the snow cover, precipitation and frequency of freeze–thaw events might impair their foraging and ultimately decrease local overwinter survival. Long‐term trends and future predictions, therefore, suggest that impacts of climate change on wintering food‐hoarding species could be substantial, because their ‘freezers’ may no longer work properly. Altered usability and poorer quality of hoarded food may further modify the foraging needs of food‐hoarding predators and thus their overall predation pressure on prey species. This raises concerns about the impacts of climate change on boreal food webs, in which ecological interactions have evolved under cold winter conditions.     

Explaining annual fluctuations in breeding density of fieldfares Turdus pilaris– combined influences of factors operating during breeding, migration and wintering

In a subalpine birch forest in Central Norway, the breeding population of fieldfare Turdus pilaris varied from 3 to 63 pairs per km² during 1966–2000. For the period 1971–1995, the breeding density was negatively related to the number of days with >75% snow covered ground in April, presumably because snow cover reduce the availability of earthworms. In a multiple regression model for the period 1974–1995, snow cover in spring, the number of migrating fieldfares observed at two ornithological stations at the southern coast of Norway in April, the mean temperature in November in the preceding year, winter temperatures, rowanberry production in the previous autumn, and the interaction effect of the two latter variables (high value of one of these variables reduced the negative effect of a low value of the other) explained 80% of the variation in fieldfare breeding density. Autumn and winter temperatures, as well as rowanberry production, contributed through a positive effect, probably because these factors affected the number of fieldfare present in Norway throughout winter, which in some years may constitute a significant proportion of the overall fieldfare population.     

High nest failure but better nestling quality for early breeders in an alpine population of Northern Wheatear (Oenanthe oenanthe)

Climate change is leading to the advancement of spring conditions, resulting in an earlier snowmelt and green-up, with highest rates of change in highly seasonal environments, including alpine habitats. Migratory birds breeding at high elevations need to time their arrival and lay dates accurately with this advancement, but also with the annually variable spring conditions at their breeding sites, to maximize nest survival probabilities and reproductive output. Nest survival probability and mean nestling mass were analysed in relation to lay date and habitat conditions in an alpine population of the migratory Northern Wheatear Oenanthe oenanthe collected over six consecutive breeding seasons in the Western Italian Alps. This open grassland species showed the lowest nest survival probability in years with an early onset of spring conditions. Within-season, nest survival was highest when breeding late, at lower elevations, and when grass cover and grass height were higher. Both across- and within-season, severe weather conditions may indirectly lead to higher early season nest failure rates by increasing predation risk. By contrast, mean nestling mass, and thus the quality of the fledglings, was lower when breeding late. This might be driven by a mismatch with the peak in food abundance. Breeding early is thus generally advantageous in terms of chick quality in our high-elevation population, but reproductive success is limited by the risk of nest failure that is higher in early springs and early in the season. This trade-off between breeding early and late may thus allow Northern Wheatears to maximize fitness under highly variable spring conditions. However, climate change may cause disruption to this trade-off, and shifts in phenology could become a threat for migratory alpine birds that might not be able to keep track of advancing spring conditions.     

Low temperature-wheat-fungal interactions: A carbohydrate connection

Winter annual and perennial crop species grown in the northern boreal ecosystem must survive periods of protracted snow cover and low temperatures during the winter. In deep snow regions, plants are susceptible to winter stresses caused by both snow molds and low temperatures. Therefore, high levels of tolerance to freezing and snow molds are requisite for crops adapted to these regions. Accumulation of soluble carbohydrates in winter wheat during the autumn is linked to both hardening and resistance to attack by snow molds. Snow mold-resistant cultivars accumulate higher levels of carbohydrate and metabolize them at slower rates than susceptible cultivars. The quantity and quality of carbohydrates, particularly fructans, remaining in the spring after snow mold attack appear important for survival of winter wheat. However, the total accumulation of carbohydrates is dependent on the stage of development of the winter cereal plant at the beginning of the winter. Recent research findings have shown that sugars are pivotal metabolic activators of the sugar-sensing enzyme, hexokinase, which initiates signal transduction and activation of numerous metabolic genes including host defense genes. Thus, an understanding of the metabolism of soluble carbohydrates, particularly fructans, during plant growth, hardening, and snow mold infection, is essential to the elucidation of survival mechanisms in plants subjected to these winter stresses.     

Habitat selection,reproduction and predation of wintering lemmings in the Arctic

Snow cover has dramatic effects on the structure and functioning of Arctic ecosystems in winter. In the tundra, the subnivean space is the primary habitat of wintering small mammals and may be critical for their survival and reproduction. We have investigated the effects of snow cover and habitat features on the distributions of collared lemming (Dicrostonyx groenlandicus) and brown lemming (Lemmus trimucronatus) winter nests, as well as on their probabilities of reproduction and predation by stoats (Mustela erminea) and arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus). We sampled 193 lemming winter nests and measured habitat features at all of these nests and at random sites at two spatial scales. We also monitored overwinter ground temperature at a subsample of nest and random sites. Our results demonstrate that nests were primarily located in areas with high micro-topography heterogeneity, steep slopes, deep snow cover providing thermal protection (reduced daily temperature fluctuations) and a high abundance of mosses. The probability of reproduction increased in collared lemming nests at low elevation and in brown lemming nests with high availability of some graminoid species. The probability of predation by stoats was density dependent and was higher in nests used by collared lemmings. Snow cover did not affect the probability of predation of lemming nests by stoats, but deep snow cover limited predation attempts by arctic foxes. We conclude that snow cover plays a key role in the spatial structure of wintering lemming populations and potentially in their population dynamics in the Arctic.     

Reproduction in the European hare in southern Sweden

Reproduction in the European hare Lepus europaeus Pallas populations was studied in three study areas in South Sweden during 1974–1976; two on the mainland and the third on the Island of Ven in Öresund. The monthly birth rates was calculated on the basis of the age of juvenile hares shot in autumn. The first births always occurred in February, indicating that the onset of the breeding season was governed by day length rather than by climate. Later, the reproduction rate was determined by temperature, snow cover, and precipitation. Low temperatures in spring delayed the reproduction; high temperatures in autumn favoured a prolongation of the breeding season. Low precipitation in May-July caused a decline in reproduction in July in a sandy pasture area, mainly because water amount was low in the green forage. Annual fertility, estimated on the basis of placental scars, varied between 6.8 and 8.9 young per female. There was a significant negative correlation between fertility and population density. The largest variations were recorded in one-year-old females, and on average the values were significantly higher in three-year-old females. 68% of all females examined had three litters annually; four litters were found in only 13% of all females. The mean litter size for the whole period was about 2.9 in all areas. The size of the first litter was significantly higher in females producing one or two litters than in females with three or four litters. The postnatal losses were on average 30–35% lower in the island population than in the mainland populations (73–84%), probably due to lack of predators, sparse road traffic, and inhibited juvenile dispersal.     

Vole population cycles in northern and southern Europe: is there a need for different explanations for single pattern?

1. Students of population cycles in small rodents in Fennoscandia have accumulated support for the predation hypothesis, which states that the gradient in cycle length and amplitude running from southern to northern Fennoscandia reflects the relative influence of specialist and generalist predators on vole dynamics, itself modulated by the presence of snow cover. The hypothesized role of snow cover is to isolate linked specialist predators, primarily the least weasel, Mustela n. nivalis L. and their prey, primarily field voles Microtus agrestis L., from the stabilizing influence of generalist predators. 2. The predation hypothesis does not readily account for the high amplitude and regular 3-year cycles of common voles documented in agricultural areas of western, central and eastern Europe. Such cycles are rarely mentioned in the literature pertaining to Fennoscandian cycles. 3. We consider new data on population cycles and demographic patterns of common voles Microtus arvalis Pallas in south-west France. We show that the patterns are wholly consistent with five of six patterns that characterize rodent cycles in Fennoscandia and that are satisfactorily explained by the predation hypothesis. They include the: (a) existence of cycle; (b) the occurrence of long-term changes in relative abundance and type of dynamics; (c) geographical synchrony over large areas; (d) interspecific synchrony; and (e) voles are large in the increase and peak phase and small in decline and low phase, namely. There is a striking similarity between the patterns shown by common vole populations in south-west France and those from Fennoscandian cyclic rodent populations, although the former are not consistent with a geographical extension of the latitudinal gradient south of Fennoscandia. 4. It is possible that the dominant interaction leading to multiannual rodent oscillations is different in different regions. We argue, however, that advocates of the predation hypothesis should embrace the challenge of developing a widely applicable explanation to population cycles, including justifying any limits to its applicability on ecological and not geographical grounds.     

The dilemma of where to nest: influence of spring snow cover,food proximity and predator abundance on reproductive success of an arctic-breeding migratory herbivore is dependent on nesting habitat choice

Pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus nest in two contrasting but commonly found habitats: steep cliffs and open tundra slopes. In Svalbard, we compared nest densities and nesting success in these two environments over ten breeding seasons to assess the impact of spring snow cover, food availability to nesting adults and arctic fox Vulpes lagopus (main terrestrial predator) abundance. In years with extensive spring snow cover, fewer geese at both colonies attempted to breed, possibly because snow cover limited pre-nesting feeding opportunities, leaving adults in poor breeding condition. Nesting success at the steep cliff colony was lower with extensive spring snow cover; such conditions force birds to commit to repeated and prolonged recess periods at far distant feeding areas, leaving nests open to predation. By contrast, nesting success at the open tundra slope was not affected by spring snow cover; even if birds were apparently in poor condition they could feed immediately adjacent to their nests and defend them from predators. Foxes were the main nest predator in the open tundra slopes but avian predators likely had a larger impact at the steep cliffs colony. Thus, the relative inaccessibility of the cliffs habitat may bring protection from foxes but also deprives geese from readily accessing feeding areas, with the best prospects for successful nesting in low spring snow cover years. Our findings indicate that spring snow cover, predator abundance and food proximity did not uniformly influence nesting success of this herbivore, and their effects were dependent on nesting habitat choice.     

Snow evens fragmentation effects and food determines overwintering success in ground-dwelling voles

Climate instability strongly affects overwintering conditions in organisms living in a strongly seasonal environment and consequently their survival and population dynamics. Food, predation and density effects are also strong during winter, but the effect of fragmentation of ground vegetation on ground-dwelling small mammals is unknown. Here, we report the results of a winter experiment on the effects of habitat fragmentation and food on experimental overwintering populations of bank voles Myodes glareolus. The study was conducted in large outdoor enclosures containing one large, two medium-sized or four small habitat patches or the total enclosure area covered with protective tall-grass habitat. During the stable snow cover of midwinter, only food affected the overwintering success, body condition, trappability and earlier onset of breeding in bank voles. However, after the snow thaw in spring, habitat fragmentation gained importance again, and breeding activities increased the movements of voles in the most fragmented habitat. The use of an open, risky matrix area increased along the habitat fragmentation. Our experiment showed that long-lasting stable snow cover protects overwintering individuals in otherwise exposed and risky ground habitats. We conclude that a stable winter climate and snow cover should even out habitat fragmentation effects on small mammals. However, along prolonged snow-free early winter and in an earlier spring thaw, this means loss of protection by snow cover both in terms of thermoregulation and predation. Thus, habitat cover is important for the survival of small ground-dwelling boreal mammals also during the non-breeding season.     

The effect of snow cover on lemming population cycles in the Canadian High Arctic

Rising temperatures and changes in the precipitation regime will have a strong impact on the quality of the snow cover in the Arctic. A snow cover of good quality protecting lemmings from cold temperatures and predators is thought to be an important factor for maintaining the cyclic dynamic of their populations in the tundra. We examined if the characteristics of annual fluctuations (amplitude and shape of phases) in brown lemming (Lemmus trimucronatus) density could be determined by snow depth, snow density, sub-nivean temperature and persistence of snow. Using an 18-year time series of brown lemming abundance on Bylot Island in the Canadian Arctic, we tested if snow variables could explain the residual variation between the observed lemming density and the one predicted by models where cyclicity had been accounted for. Our analysis provides support for the hypothesis that snow cover can affect the amplitude and possibly also the periodicity of lemming population cycles in the High Arctic. Summer abundance of brown lemmings was higher following winters with a deep snow cover and a low-density snow pack near the ground but was unaffected by the date of establishment or melting and duration of the snow cover. Two snow variables showed a temporal trend; mean winter snow depth tended to increase and date of establishment of the hiemal threshold occurred earlier over time. These temporal trends, which should be favourable to lemmings, may explain why healthy population cycles have apparently been maintained at our study site contrary to other Arctic sites.     

Population vulnerability to climate change linked to timing of breeding in boreal ducks

Identifying and understanding why traits make species vulnerable to changing climatic conditions remain central problems in evolutionary and applied ecology. We used spring snow cover duration as a proxy for phenological timing of wetland ecosystems, and examined how snow cover duration during spring and during the entire snow season affected population dynamics of duck species breeding in the western boreal forest of North America, 1973–2007. We predicted that population level responses would differ among duck species, such that late‐nesting species with reduced flexibility in their timing of breeding, i.e. scaup (Aythya spp.) and scoter (Melanitta spp.), would be more strongly affected by changing snow cover conditions relative to species better able to adjust timing of breeding to seasonal phenology, i.e. mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) and American wigeon (Anas americana). Population growth rates of scaup and scoter were positively linked to spring snow cover duration; after accounting for effects of density dependence, larger populations resulted after springs with long snow cover duration than after springs with short snow cover duration. In contrast, population growth rates of mallard and wigeon were either negatively or only weakly associated with snow cover duration. Duck population models were then incorporated with snow cover duration derived from climate model simulations under the A2 emission scenario, and these predictions suggested that late‐nesting duck species will experience the most severe population declines. Results are consistent with a hypothesis that the gradual climatic warming observed in the western boreal forest of North America has contributed to and may continue to exacerbate population declines of scaup and scoter.     

Some population dynamics of the Bank vole, Clethrionomys glareolus and the Wood mouse, Apodemus sylvaticus in mixed woodland

The population dynamics of Clethrionomys glareolus Schr.and Apodemus sylvaticus (L.) in mixed woodland in County Durham, were studied from March 1963 to January 1965. Two areas of 0.9 ha (2.25 acres) each were trapped monthly and information was obtained on population size, reproduction, survival and growth from marked animals.
Clethrionomys populations increased from June to an autumn peak; then declined, at first rapidly, but then more slowly in winter, before reaching a spring trough. The breeding season of Clethrionomys was from May to December; juveniles were caught from mid-June to December. Survival was in general poor during the breeding season but good at other times. Survival of young born early in the summer was particularly good on one of the areas and some individuals lived long enough to breed in two successive years. On both areas young born early in the year matured rapidly and bred in the year of their birth. Young born in late summer and early autumn ceased growing at a weight of about 14.5 g, remained immature, and formed the bulk of the overwintering population. Growth was completed at the time of sexual maturation the following spring.
Trapping failed to provide adequate samples of juvenile Apodemus in summer to account for subsequent recruitment. The possibility that a substantial proportion of the adult population of this species was also either trap shy or had emigrated temporarily is discussed. Breeding occurred from April until the following January, but the numbers trapped remained very low throughout the early months of the breeding season. Large scale recruitment of young fecund animals into the trap-revealed population occurred during the autumn. Apodemus males continued to grow rapidly during the winter.     

Demographic response of tundra small mammals to a snow fencing experiment

Snow cover is a key environmental component for tundra wildlife that will be affected by climate change. Change to the snow cover may affect the population dynamics of high‐latitude small mammals, which are active throughout the winter and reproduce under the snow. We experimentally tested the hypotheses that a deeper snow cover would enhance the densities and winter reproductive rates of small mammals, but that predation by mustelids could be higher in areas of increased small mammal density. We enhanced snow cover by setting out snow fences at three sites in the Canadian Arctic (Bylot Island, Nunavut, and Herschel Island and Komakuk Beach, Yukon) over periods ranging from one to four years. Densities of winter nests were higher where snow depth was increased but spring lemming densities did not increase on the experimental areas. Lemmings probably moved from areas of deep snow, their preferred winter habitat, to summer habitat during snow melt once the advantages associated with deep snow were gone. Our treatment had no effect on signs of reproduction in winter nests, proportion of lactating females in spring, or the proportion of juveniles caught in spring, which suggests that deep snow did not enhance reproduction. Results on predation were inconsistent across sites as predation by weasels was higher on the experimental area at one site but lower at two others and was not higher in areas of winter nest aggregations. Although this experiment provided us with several new insights about the impact of snow cover on the population dynamics of tundra small mammals, it also illustrates the challenges and difficulties associated with large‐scale experiments aimed at manipulating a critical climatic factor.     

Surviving north of the natural range: the importance of density independence in determining population size

The relative importance of density-dependent and -independent processes in determining population density has been predicted to vary according to whether the population concerned is located near the centre or the periphery of the species' range. Thus, density-independent processes should be more pronounced near the periphery. The long-tailed wood mouse Apodemus sylvaticus in Iceland is at the northern and western edge of its geographical range. We estimated the autumn population density in an open habitat in south-western Iceland in 9 years out of 10 during 1996–2005 in order to monitor the annual maximum population size. Furthermore, we estimated population density and survival at c . 5-week intervals from September 2001 to October 2003 and from September 2004 to November 2005 in order to reveal the causes of variation in maximum population size. The estimated autumn population density was low, ranging from 2.7 to 8.9 mice ha⁻¹ while spring densities ranged from 0.4 to 0.8 mice ha⁻¹. Apparent monthly survival probabilities ranged from 0.4 to 0.7 per month in autumn and 0.7 to 0.9 in winter. Our results suggest that low temperature in early winter (October–December) is the major determinant of population density in the following autumn, explaining 74% of the variation in autumn population density. No significant correlation was found between either the NAO index or the NAO winter index and variation in wood mouse population density in autumn. Differential mortality in early winter results in variation in spring population size. This study shows clear evidence of density-independent control of a mammal population at the edge of its geographical range as opposed to the mostly density-dependent control previously recorded near its centre of distribution.     

Snow conditions as an estimator of the breeding output in high-Arctic pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus

The Svalbard-breeding population of pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus has increased during the last decades and is giving rise to agricultural conflicts along their migration route, as well as causing grazing impacts on tundra vegetation. An adaptive flyway management plan has been implemented, which will be based on predictive population models including environmental variables expected to affect goose population development, such as weather conditions on the breeding grounds. A local study in Svalbard showed that snow cover prior to egg laying is a crucial factor for the reproductive output of pink-footed geese, and MODIS satellite images provided a useful estimator of snow cover. In this study, we up-scaled the analysis to the population level by examining various measures of snow conditions and compared them with the overall breeding success of the population as indexed by the proportion of juveniles in the autumn population. As explanatory variables, we explored MODIS images, satellite-based radar measures of onset of snow melt, winter NAO index, and the May temperature sum and May thaw days. To test for the presence of density dependence, we included the number of adults in the population. For 2000–2011, MODIS-derived snow cover (available since 2000) was the strongest indicator of breeding conditions. For 1981–2011, winter NAO and May thaw days had equal weight. Interestingly, there appears to have been a phase shift from density-dependent to density-independent reproduction, which is consistent with a hypothesis of released breeding potential due to the recent advancement of spring in Svalbard.     

Regulation, cycles and stability in northern carnivore-herbivore systems: back to first principles

In studies on dynamics of northern predator‐prey systems, two assumptions are often made. First, the bifurcation from stable to cyclic dynamics is seen as a consequence of changing generalist‐specialist ratio, ultimately due to reduced prey diversity at high latitudes and the negative impact of snow on the efficiency of generalists as predators of small, folivorous mammals. Supposedly, the primary mechanism is the qualitative difference between the functional response of specialist and generalist predators. Second, the interaction between large predators and ungulates is supposed to be prone to lead to two alternative equilibria, one where predation regulates ungulates at a relatively low equilibrium and another, where ungulate densities are close to carrying capacity. In the first‐mentioned issue, our analysis corroborates the general idea of snow favoring specialists and leading to cycles. However, differences in functional response appear to be of secondary importance only, and rather special conditions are required for generalists to have a stabilizing type III functional response. A destabilizing type II functional response or a slight modification of it should be common in generalists, too, as also indicated by the classical experiments. Stability of generalist dominated systems seems primarily to derive from their relative inefficiency, allowing prey's density‐dependent mechanisms to play a bigger role in the neighborhood of the equilibrium. Moreover, the main destabilizing impact of deep, long‐lasting snow cover appears to lie in the protection it offers to the efficient but vulnerable specialists, which are eliminated or marginalized by intraguild predation in areas with snow‐free winters, unless the habitat offers some other form of efficient protection. As for the conjecture of multiple equilibria in northern wolf‐ungulate systems, it seems to be derived from an erroneous operational definition of numerical response and has little if any empirical support. Available data suggest that predation limitation of folivorous mammals prevails along the entire gradient from relatively productive low arctic habitats to the humid parts of the temperate zone, provided that the numbers of predators are not controlled by man.     

The influence of spatio-temporal resource fluctuations on insular rat population dynamics

Local spatio-temporal resource variations can strongly influence the population dynamics of small mammals. This is particularly true on islands which are bottom-up driven systems, lacking higher order predators and with high variability in resource subsidies. The influence of resource fluctuations on animal survival may be mediated by individual movement among habitat patches, but simultaneously analysing survival, resource availability and habitat selection requires sophisticated analytical methods. We use a Bayesian multi-state capture-recapture model to estimate survival and movement probabilities of non-native black rats (Rattus rattus) across three habitats seasonally varying in resource availability. We find that survival varies most strongly with temporal rainfall patterns, overwhelming minor spatial variation among habitats. Surprisingly for a generalist forager, movement between habitats was rare, suggesting individuals do not opportunistically respond to spatial resource subsidy variations. Climate is probably the main driver of rodent population dynamics on islands, and even substantial habitat and seasonal spatial subsidies are overwhelmed in magnitude by predictable annual patterns in resource pulses. Marked variation in survival and capture has important implications for the timing of rat control.     

An empirically based model for latitudinal gradient in vole population dynamics

Vole dynamics in northern Europe exhibit a well-defined geographical gradient, with oscillatory populations being confined to high latitudes. It has been proposed that oscillations in northern vole populations are driven by their interaction with specialist predators (weasels), while the more southern rodent populations are relatively stable because of regulation by generalist predators. We tested this generalist/specialist predation hypothesis by constructing an empirically based model for vole population dynamics, estimating its parameters, and making predictions about the quantitative pattern of the latitudinal shift in vole dynamics. Our results indicated that the model accurately predicted the latitudinal shift in the amplitude and periodicity of population fluctuations. Moreover, the model predicted that vole dynamics should shift from stable to chaotic as latitude is increased, a result in agreement with nonlinear time-series analysis of the data. The striking success of the model at predicting the shifts in amplitude and stability along the geographical gradient in northern Europe provides strong support for the key role of specialist and generalist predators in vole population dynamics.