A general ecophysiological framework for modelling the impact of pests and pathogens on forest ecosystems.

Forest insects and pathogens (FIPs) have enormous impacts on community dynamics, carbon storage and ecosystem services, however, ecosystem modelling of FIPs is limited due to their variability in severity and extent. We present a general framework for modelling FIP disturbances through their impacts on tree ecophysiology. Five pathways are identified as the basis for functional groupings: increases in leaf, stem and root turnover, and reductions in phloem and xylem transport. A simple ecophysiological model was used to explore the sensitivity of forest growth, mortality and ecosystem fluxes to varying outbreak severity. Across all pathways, low infection was associated with growth reduction but limited mortality. Moderate infection led to individual tree mortality, whereas high levels led to stand‐level die‐offs delayed over multiple years. Delayed mortality is consistent with observations and critical for capturing biophysical, biogeochemical and successional responses. This framework enables novel predictions under present and future global change scenarios.     

Drought's legacy: multiyear hydraulic deterioration underlies widespread aspen forest die‐off and portends increased future risk

Forest mortality constitutes a major uncertainty in projections of climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and carbon‐cycle feedbacks. Recent drought‐induced, widespread forest die‐offs highlight that climate change could accelerate forest mortality with its diverse and potentially severe consequences for the global carbon cycle, ecosystem services, and biodiversity. How trees die during drought over multiple years remains largely unknown and precludes mechanistic modeling and prediction of forest die‐off with climate change. Here, we examine the physiological basis of a recent multiyear widespread die‐off of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) across much of western North America. Using observations from both native trees while they are dying and a rainfall exclusion experiment on mature trees, we measure hydraulic performance over multiple seasons and years and assess pathways of accumulated hydraulic damage. We test whether accumulated hydraulic damage can predict the probability of tree survival over 2 years. We find that hydraulic damage persisted and increased in dying trees over multiple years and exhibited few signs of repair. This accumulated hydraulic deterioration is largely mediated by increased vulnerability to cavitation, a process known as cavitation fatigue. Furthermore, this hydraulic damage predicts the probability of interyear stem mortality. Contrary to the expectation that surviving trees have weathered severe drought, the hydraulic deterioration demonstrated here reveals that surviving regions of these forests are actually more vulnerable to future droughts due to accumulated xylem damage. As the most widespread tree species in North America, increasing vulnerability to drought in these forests has important ramifications for ecosystem stability, biodiversity, and ecosystem carbon balance. Our results provide a foundation for incorporating accumulated drought impacts into climate–vegetation models. Finally, our findings highlight the critical role of drought stress accumulation and repair of stress‐induced damage for avoiding plant mortality, presenting a dynamic and contingent framework for drought impacts on forest ecosystems.     

Tree species richness affects litter production and decomposition rates in a tropical biodiversity experiment

We report data on leaf litter production and decomposition from a manipulative biodiversity experiment with trees in tropical Panama, which has been designed to explore the relationship between tree diversity and ecosystem functioning. A total of 24 plots (2025 m²) were established in 2001 using six native tree species, with 1‐, 3‐, and 6‐species mixtures. We estimated litter production during the dry season 2005 with litter traps; decomposition was assessed with a litter bag approach during the following wet season. Litter production during the course of the dry season was highly variable among the tree species. Tree diversity significantly affected litter production, and the majority of the intermediate diverse mixtures had higher litter yields than expected based on yields in monoculture. In contrast, high diverse mixtures did not show such overyielding in litter production. Litter decomposition rates were also highly species‐specific, and were related to various measures of litter quality (C/N, lignin/N, fibre content). We found no overall effect of litter diversity if the entire litter mixtures were analyzed, i.e. mixing species resulted in pure additive effects and observed decomposition rates were not different from expected rates. However, the individual species changed their decomposition pattern depending on the diversity of the litter mixture, i.e. there were species‐specific responses to mixing litter. The analysis of temporal C and N dynamics within litter mixtures gave only limited evidence for nutrient transfer among litters of different quality. At this early stage of our tree diversity experiment, there are no coherent and general effects of tree species richness on both litter production and decomposition. Within the scope of the biodiversity‐ecosystem functioning relationship, our results therefore highlight the process‐specific effects diversity may have. Additionally, species‐specific effects on ecosystem processes and their temporal dynamics are important, but such effects may change along the gradient of tree diversity.     

Effects of biological invasions on forest carbon sequestration

There has been a rapidly developing literature on the effects of some of the major drivers of global change on carbon (C) sequestration, particularly carbon dioxide (CO₂) enrichment, land use change, nitrogen (N) deposition and climate change. However, remarkably little attention has been given to one major global change driver, namely biological invasions. This is despite growing evidence that invasive species can dramatically alter a range of aboveground and belowground ecosystem processes, including those that affect C sequestration. In this review, we assess the evidence for the impacts of biological invaders on forest C stocks and C sequestration by biological invaders. We first present case studies that highlight a range of invader impacts on C sequestration in forest ecosystems, and draw on examples that involve invasive primary producers, decomposers, herbivores, plant pathogens, mutualists and predators. We then develop a conceptual framework for assessing the effects of invasive species on C sequestration impacts more generally, by identifying the features of biological invaders and invaded ecosystems that are thought to most strongly regulate C in forests. Finally we assess the implications of managing invasive species on C sequestration. An important principle that emerges from this review is that the direct effects of invaders on forest C are often smaller and shorter‐term than their indirect effects caused by altered nutrient availability, primary productivity or species composition, all of which regulate long‐term C pools and fluxes. This review provides a conceptual basis for improving our general understanding of biological invaders on ecosystem C, but also points to a paucity of primary data that are needed to determine the quantitative effects of invaders on ecosystem processes that drive C sequestration.     

A cross-scale framework to support a mechanistic understanding and modelling of marine climate-driven species redistribution,from individuals to communities

Climate-driven species redistribution is pervasive and accelerating, yet the complex mechanisms at play remain poorly understood. The implications of large-scale species redistribution for natural systems and human societies have resulted in a large number of studies exploring the effects on individual species and ecological communities worldwide. Whilst many studies have investigated discrete components of species redistribution, the integration required for a more complete mechanistic understanding is lacking. In this paper, we provide a framework for synthesising approaches to more robustly understand and predict marine species redistributions. We conceptualise the stages and processes involved in climate-driven species redistribution at increasing levels of biological organisation, and synthesize the laboratory, field and modelling approaches used to study redistribution related processes at individual, population and community levels. We then summarise links between scales of biological organisation and methodological approaches in a hierarchical framework that represents an integrated mechanistic assessment of climate-driven species redistributions. In a rapidly expanding field of research, this framework provides direction for: 1) guiding future research, 2) highlighting key knowledge gaps, 3) fostering data exchange and collaboration between disciplines and 4) improving shared capacity to predict and therefore, inform the proactive management of climate impacts on natural systems.     

Tree litter functional diversity and nitrogen concentration enhance litter decomposition via changes in earthworm communities

Biodiversity is a major driver of numerous ecosystem functions. However, consequences of changes in forest biodiversity remain difficult to predict because of limited knowledge about how tree diversity influences ecosystem functions. Litter decomposition is a key process affecting nutrient cycling, productivity, and carbon storage and can be influenced by plant biodiversity. Leaf litter species composition, environmental conditions, and the detritivore community are main components of the decomposition process, but their complex interactions are poorly understood. In this study, we tested the effect of tree functional diversity (FD) on litter decomposition in a field experiment manipulating tree diversity and partitioned the effects of litter physiochemical diversity and the detritivore community. We used litterbags with different mesh sizes to separate the effects of microorganisms and microfauna, mesofauna, and macrofauna and monitored soil fauna using pitfall traps and earthworm extractions. We hypothesized that higher tree litter FD accelerates litter decomposition due to the availability of complementary food components and higher activity of detritivores. Although we did not find direct effects of tree FD on litter decomposition, we identified key litter traits and macrodetritivores that explained part of the process. Litter mass loss was found to decrease with an increase in leaf litter carbon:nitrogen ratio. Moreover, litter mass loss increased with an increasing density of epigeic earthworms, with most pronounced effects in litterbags with a smaller mesh size, indicating indirect effects. Higher litter FD and litter nutrient content were found to increase the density of surface‐dwelling macrofauna and epigeic earthworm biomass. Based on structural equation modeling, we conclude that tree FD has a weak positive effect on soil surface litter decomposition by increasing the density of epigeic earthworms and that litter nitrogen‐related traits play a central role in tree composition effects on soil fauna and decomposition.     

Landscape-Scale Simulation of Heterogeneous Fire Effects on Pyrogenic Carbon Emissions,Tree Mortality,and Net Ecosystem Production

Fire influences carbon dynamics from local to global scales, but many uncertainties remain regarding the remote detection and simulation of heterogeneous fire effects. This study integrates Landsat-based remote sensing and Biome-BGC process modeling to simulate the effects of high-, moderate-, and low-severity fire on pyrogenic emissions, tree mortality, and net ecosystem production. The simulation area (244,600 ha) encompasses four fires that burned approximately 50,000 ha in 2002–2003 across the Metolius Watershed, Oregon, USA, as well as in situ measurements of postfire carbon pools and fluxes that we use for model evaluation. Simulated total pyrogenic emissions were 0.732 Tg C (2.4% of equivalent statewide anthropogenic carbon emissions over the same 2-year period). The simulated total carbon transfer due to tree mortality was fourfold higher than pyrogenic carbon emissions, but dead wood decomposition will occur over decades. Immediately postfire, burned areas were a simulated carbon source (net C exchange: −0.076 Tg C y⁻¹; mean ± SD: −142 ± 121 g C m⁻² y⁻¹). As expected, high-severity, stand-replacement fire had disproportionate carbon impacts. The per-unit area effects of moderate-severity fire were substantial, however, and the extent of low-severity fire merits its inclusion in landscape-scale analyses. These results demonstrate the potential to reduce uncertainties in landscape to regional carbon budgets by leveraging Landsat-based fire products that account for both stand-replacement and partial disturbance.     

Arctic browning: Impacts of extreme climatic events on heathland ecosystem CO2 fluxes

Extreme climatic events are among the drivers of recent declines in plant biomass and productivity observed across Arctic ecosystems, known as “Arctic browning.” These events can cause landscape‐scale vegetation damage and so are likely to have major impacts on ecosystem CO₂ balance. However, there is little understanding of the impacts on CO₂ fluxes, especially across the growing season. Furthermore, while widespread shoot mortality is commonly observed with browning events, recent observations show that shoot stress responses are also common, and manifest as high levels of persistent anthocyanin pigmentation. Whether or how this response impacts ecosystem CO₂ fluxes is not known. To address these research needs, a growing season assessment of browning impacts following frost drought and extreme winter warming (both extreme climatic events) on the key ecosystem CO₂ fluxes Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE), Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (R_eco) and soil respiration (R_soil) was carried out in widespread sub‐Arctic dwarf shrub heathland, incorporating both mortality and stress responses. Browning (mortality and stress responses combined) caused considerable site‐level reductions in GPP and NEE (of up to 44%), with greatest impacts occurring at early and late season. Furthermore, impacts on CO₂ fluxes associated with stress often equalled or exceeded those resulting from vegetation mortality. This demonstrates that extreme events can have major impacts on ecosystem CO₂ balance, considerably reducing the carbon sink capacity of the ecosystem, even where vegetation is not killed. Structural Equation Modelling and additional measurements, including decomposition rates and leaf respiration, provided further insight into mechanisms underlying impacts of mortality and stress on CO₂ fluxes. The scale of reductions in ecosystem CO₂ uptake highlights the need for a process‐based understanding of Arctic browning in order to predict how vegetation and CO₂ balance will respond to continuing climate change.     

Effects of Water and Nitrogen Addition on Ecosystem Carbon Exchange in a Meadow Steppe

A changing precipitation regime and increasing nitrogen deposition are likely to have profound impacts on arid and semiarid ecosystem C cycling, which is often constrained by the timing and availability of water and nitrogen. However, little is known about the effects of altered precipitation and nitrogen addition on grassland ecosystem C exchange. We conducted a 3-year field experiment to assess the responses of vegetation composition, ecosystem productivity, and ecosystem C exchange to manipulative water and nitrogen addition in a meadow steppe. Nitrogen addition significantly stimulated aboveground biomass and net ecosystem CO₂ exchange (NEE), which suggests that nitrogen availability is a primary limiting factor for ecosystem C cycling in the meadow steppe. Water addition had no significant impacts on either ecosystem C exchange or plant biomass, but ecosystem C fluxes showed a strong correlation with early growing season precipitation, rather than whole growing season precipitation, across the 3 experimental years. After we incorporated water addition into the calculation of precipitation regimes, we found that monthly average ecosystem C fluxes correlated more strongly with precipitation frequency than with precipitation amount. These results highlight the importance of precipitation distribution in regulating ecosystem C cycling. Overall, ecosystem C fluxes in the studied ecosystem are highly sensitive to nitrogen deposition, but less sensitive to increased precipitation.     

Lessons Learned While Integrating Habitat,Dispersal, Disturbance,and Life-History Traits into Species Habitat Models Under Climate Change

We present an approach to modeling potential climate-driven changes in habitat for tree and bird species in the eastern United States. First, we took an empirical-statistical modeling approach, using randomForest, with species abundance data from national inventories combined with soil, climate, and landscape variables, to build abundance-based habitat models for 134 tree and 147 bird species. We produced lists of species for which suitable habitat tends to increase, decrease, or stay the same for any region. Independent assessments of trends of large trees versus seedlings across the eastern U.S. show that 37 of 40 species in common under both studies are currently trending as modeled. We developed a framework, ModFacs, in which we used the literature to assign default modification factor scores for species characteristics that cannot be readily assessed in such models, including 12 disturbance factors (for example, drought, fire, insect pests), nine biological factors (for example, dispersal, shade tolerance), and assessment scores of novel climates, long-distance extrapolations, and output variability by climate model and emission scenario. We also used a spatially explicit cellular model, SHIFT, to calculate colonization potentials for some species, based on their abundance, historic dispersal distances, and the fragmented nature of the landscape. By combining results from the three efforts, we can create projections of potential climate change impacts over the next 100 years or so. Here we emphasize some of the lessons we have learned over 16 years in hopes that they may help guide future experiments, modeling efforts, and management.     

Biogeochemical Contributions of Tree Islands to Everglades Wetland Landscape Nitrogen Cycling During Seasonal Inundation

In the Florida Everglades, tree islands are conspicuous heterogeneous elements in the herbaceous wetland landscape. We characterized the biogeochemical role of a seasonally flooded tree island during wet season inundation, specifically examining hydrologically mediated flows of nitrogen (N) and N retention by the tree island. We estimated ecosystem N standing stocks and fluxes, soil and litter N transformation rates, and hydrologic fluxes of N to quantify the net ecosystem N mass flux. Results showed that hydrologic sources of N were dominated by surface water loads of nitrate (NO₃) and ammonium (NH₄). Nitrate immobilization by soils and surficial leaf litter was an important sink for surface water dissolved inorganic N (DIN). We estimated that the net annual DIN retention by a seasonally flooded tree island was 20.5 ± 5.0 g m⁻² during wet season inundation. Based on the estimated tree island surface water DIN loading rate, a seasonally flooded tree island retained 76% of imported DIN. As such, seasonally flooded tree islands have the potential to retain 55% of DIN entering the marsh landscape via upstream canal overland flow in the wet season. By increasing reactive surface area and DOC availability, we suggest that tree islands promote convergence of elements that enhance DIN retention. Tree islands of this region are thus important components of landscape-scale restoration efforts that seek to reduce sources of anthropogenic DIN to downstream estuaries.     

Tree Size Inequality Reduces Forest Productivity: An Analysis Combining Inventory Data for Ten European Species and a Light Competition Model

Plant structural diversity is usually considered as beneficial for ecosystem functioning. For instance, numerous studies have reported positive species diversity-productivity relationships in plant communities. However, other aspects of structural diversity such as individual size inequality have been far less investigated. In forests, tree size inequality impacts directly tree growth and asymmetric competition, but consequences on forest productivity are still indeterminate. In addition, the effect of tree size inequality on productivity is likely to vary with species shade-tolerance, a key ecological characteristic controlling asymmetric competition and light resource acquisition. Using plot data from the French National Geographic Agency, we studied the response of stand productivity to size inequality for ten forest species differing in shade tolerance. We fitted a basal area stand production model that included abiotic factors, stand density, stand development stage and a tree size inequality index. Then, using a forest dynamics model we explored whether mechanisms of light interception and light use efficiency could explain the tree size inequality effect observed for three of the ten species studied. Size inequality negatively affected basal area increment for seven out of the ten species investigated. However, this effect was not related to the shade tolerance of these species. According to the model simulations, the negative tree size inequality effect could result both from reduced total stand light interception and reduced light use efficiency. Our results demonstrate that negative relationships between size inequality and productivity may be the rule in tree populations. The lack of effect of shade tolerance indicates compensatory mechanisms between effect on light availability and response to light availability. Such a pattern deserves further investigations for mixed forests where complementarity effects between species are involved. When studying the effect of structural diversity on ecosystem productivity, tree size inequality is a major facet that should be taken into account.     

Conflicting values: ecosystem services and invasive tree management

Tree species have been planted widely beyond their native ranges to provide or enhance ecosystem services such as timber and fibre production, erosion control, and aesthetic or amenity benefits. At the same time, non-native tree species can have strongly negative impacts on ecosystem services when they naturalize and subsequently become invasive and disrupt or transform communities and ecosystems. The dichotomy between positive and negative effects on ecosystem services has led to significant conflicts over the removal of non-native invasive tree species worldwide. These conflicts are often viewed in only a local context but we suggest that a global synthesis sheds important light on the dimensions of the phenomenon. We collated examples of conflict surrounding the control or management of tree invasions where conflict has caused delay, increased cost, or cessation of projects aimed at invasive tree removal. We found that conflicts span a diverse range of taxa, systems and countries, and that most conflicts emerge around three areas: urban and near-urban trees; trees that provide direct economic benefits; and invasive trees that are used by native species for habitat or food. We suggest that such conflict should be seen as a normal occurrence in invasive tree removal. Assessing both positive and negative effects of invasive species on multiple ecosystem services may provide a useful framework for the resolution of conflicts.     

Intertwined effects of defaunation,increased tree mortality and density compensation on seed dispersal

Contemporary defaunation has profound ecological consequences ranging from local or even global co-extinctions of interacting species to the loss of ecosystem functions and services critical for humanity. Other components of global change (climate change, introduced pests, land use changes) are also harming ecosystem functioning by augmenting tree mortality worldwide. Defaunation and increased tree mortality often coincide in many human-altered ecosystems but whether they interact, leading to non-additive effects on ecosystem functioning, remains largely unknown. However, under some ecological circumstances, the decline or extirpation of one species due to defaunation can be neutralized by increases in the abundance of some functionally similar species (i.e. ‘density compensation’). We combined long-term field data with individual-based modelling to investigate the potential interactive effects of seed disperser loss, increased tree mortality and density compensation on seed dispersal in a heterogeneous landscape. Our simulation experiments showed that both stressors markedly limit not only the quantity of seed dispersal but also its quality since the impact on seed dispersal strongly varied among habitat types that differ strikingly in suitability for tree establishment. Density compensation had a marked positive effect on seed dispersal which, however, was largely limited under increased tree mortality. The combined negative effects of defaunation and increased tree mortality on seed dispersal were lower than the expected additive effect. This highlights the need to account for the joint operation of multiple stressors to accurately predict the impacts of global change on the link between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning.     

Observations and modeling of aboveground tree carbon stocks and fluxes following a bark beetle outbreak in the western United States

Bark beetle epidemics result in tree mortality across millions of hectares in North America. However, few studies have quantified impacts on carbon (C) cycling. In this study, we quantified the immediate response and subsequent trajectories of stand‐level aboveground tree C stocks and fluxes using field measurements and modeling for a location in central Idaho, USA that experienced an outbreak of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins). We measured tree characteristics in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) plots spanning a range of structure and mortality conditions. We then initialized the forest vegetation simulator, an individual tree‐based model, with these measurements and simulated the response of aboveground production of C fluxes as well as trajectories of C stocks and fluxes in the coming decades. Mountain pine beetles killed up to 52% of the trees within plots, with more larger trees killed. C stocks in lodgepole pine were reduced by 31–83% following the outbreak, and plot‐level C fluxes decreased 28–73%. Modeled C stocks increased nearly continuously following the infestation, recovering to preoutbreak levels in 25 years or less. Simulated aboveground tree C fluxes increased following the immediate postoutbreak decrease, then subsequently declined. Substantial variability of C stocks and fluxes among plots resulted from the number and size of killed and surviving trees. Our study illustrates that bark beetle epidemics alter forest C cycling unlike stand‐replacement wildfires or clear‐cut harvests, due in part to incomplete mortality coupled with the preference by beetles for larger trees. The dependency of postoutbreak C stocks and fluxes on stand structure suggests that C budget models and studies in areas experiencing mountain pine beetle disturbances need to include size distribution of trees for the most accurate results.     

Accentuating the positive while eliminating the negative of alien tree invasions: a multiple ecosystem services approach to prioritising control efforts

Invasive plants can have both positive and negative impacts on ecosystem services (ES), with decisions on control often being characterised by conflicts over loss of their perceived positive impacts on individual ES following removal. We present an analytical framework to aid in reducing such conflicts by allocating control effort to both minimise negative impacts and to maximise positive impacts on multiple ES. We used spatial models to map the negative impacts of invasive conifers on biodiversity, perceived landscape quality, and water yield and their positive impacts on erosion protection and carbon storage across a major catchment in the South Island of New Zealand. We tested the effect of distribution type (i.e. hotspot vs Gaussian) on trade-offs among these ES. We also tested whether using a non-linear function optimisation algorithm to fit variable weights to individual ES significantly reduced trade-offs. We show that an optimised multiple-ES approach could considerably reduce conflicts around invasive tree management arising from their contrasting impacts on different ecosystem services (i.e. by reducing trade-offs between ES), but cannot remove such conflict altogether. Our results are consistent with studies showing that ES with a hot-spot type distribution are the most vulnerable to trade-offs in multi-ES prioritisation, and hence will be the most likely to cause conflict in invasive tree control decisions. Our approach also shows that giving higher priority to ES with hot-spot distributions could reduce conflicts (by reducing tradeoffs). We argue that, when ES data are available, including estimates of ES impacts should be among the “due diligence” requirements for developing invasive tree control strategies.     

A joint individual‐based model coupling growth and mortality reveals that tree vigor is a key component of tropical forest dynamics

Tree vigor is often used as a covariate when tree mortality is predicted from tree growth in tropical forest dynamic models, but it is rarely explicitly accounted for in a coherent modeling framework. We quantify tree vigor at the individual tree level, based on the difference between expected and observed growth. The available methods to join nonlinear tree growth and mortality processes are not commonly used by forest ecologists so that we develop an inference methodology based on an MCMC approach, allowing us to sample the parameters of the growth and mortality model according to their posterior distribution using the joint model likelihood. We apply our framework to a set of data on the 20‐year dynamics of a forest in Paracou, French Guiana, taking advantage of functional trait‐based growth and mortality models already developed independently. Our results showed that growth and mortality are intimately linked and that the vigor estimator is an essential predictor of mortality, highlighting that trees growing more than expected have a far lower probability of dying. Our joint model methodology is sufficiently generic to be used to join two longitudinal and punctual linked processes and thus may be applied to a wide range of growth and mortality models. In the context of global changes, such joint models are urgently needed in tropical forests to analyze, and then predict, the effects of the ongoing changes on the tree dynamics in hyperdiverse tropical forests.     

Site‐specific risk assessment enables trade‐off analysis of non‐native tree species in European forests

Non‐native tree species (NNT) are used in European forestry for many purposes including their growth performance, valuable timber, and resistance to drought and pest or pathogen damage. Yet, cultivating NNT may pose risks to biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, and the provisioning of ecosystem services, and several NNT have been classified as invasive in Europe. Typically, such classifications are based on risk assessments, which do not adequately consider site‐specific variations in impacts of the NNT or the extent of affected areas. Here, we present a new methodological framework that facilitates both mitigating risks associated with NNT and taking advantage of their ecosystem services. The framework is based on a stratified assessment of risks posed by NNT which distinguishes between different sites and considers effectiveness of available management strategies to control negative effects. The method can be applied to NNT that already occur in a given area or those NNT that may establish in future. The framework consists of eight steps and is partly based on existing knowledge. If adequate site‐specific knowledge on NNT does not yet exist, new evidence on the risks should be obtained, for example, by collecting and analyzing monitoring data or modeling the potential distribution of NNT. However, limitations remain in the application of this method, and we propose several policy and management recommendations which are required to improve the responsible use of NNT.     

A network approach for inferring species associations from co‐occurrence data

Positive and negative associations between species are a key outcome of community assembly from regional species pools. These associations are difficult to detect and can be caused by a range of processes such as species interactions, local environmental constraints and dispersal. We integrate new ideas around species distribution modeling, covariance matrix estimation, and network analysis to provide an approach to inferring non‐random species associations from local‐ and regional‐scale occurrence data. Specifically, we provide a novel framework for identifying species associations that overcomes three challenges: 1) correcting for indirect effects from other species, 2) avoiding spurious associations driven by regional‐scale distributions, and 3) describing these associations in a multi‐species context. We highlight a range of research questions and analyses that this framework is able to address. We show that the approach is statistically robust using simulated data. In addition, we present an empirical analysis of > 1000 North American tree communities that gives evidence for weak positive associations among small groups of species. Finally, we discuss several possible extensions for identifying drivers of associations, predicting community assembly, and better linking biogeography and community ecology.     

Climate‐driven uncertainties in modeling terrestrial gross primary production: a site level to global‐scale analysis

We used a land surface model to quantify the causes and extents of biases in terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) due to the use of meteorological reanalysis datasets. We first calibrated the model using meteorology and eddy covariance data from 25 flux tower sites ranging from the tropics to the northern high latitudes and subsequently repeated the site simulations using two reanalysis datasets: NCEP/NCAR and CRUNCEP. The results show that at most sites, the reanalysis‐driven GPP bias was significantly positive with respect to the observed meteorology‐driven simulations. Notably, the absolute GPP bias was highest at the tropical evergreen tree sites, averaging up to ca. 0.45 kg C m^?2 yr^?1 across sites (ca. 15% of site level GPP). At the northern mid‐/high‐latitude broadleaf deciduous and the needleleaf evergreen tree sites, the corresponding annual GPP biases were up to 20%. For the nontree sites, average annual biases of up to ca. 20–30% were simulated within savanna, grassland, and shrubland vegetation types. At the tree sites, the biases in short‐wave radiation and humidity strongly influenced the GPP biases, while the nontree sites were more affected by biases in factors controlling water stress (precipitation, humidity, and air temperature). In this study, we also discuss the influence of seasonal patterns of meteorological biases on GPP. Finally, using model simulations for the global land surface, we discuss the potential impacts of site‐level reanalysis‐driven biases on the global estimates of GPP. In a broader context, our results can have important consequences on other terrestrial ecosystem fluxes (e.g., net primary production, net ecosystem production, energy/water fluxes) and reservoirs (e.g., soil carbon stocks). In a complementary study (Barman et al., 2013 ), we extend the present analysis for latent and sensible heat fluxes, thus consistently integrating the analysis of climate‐driven uncertainties in carbon, energy, and water fluxes using a single modeling framework.