Integrated pest management models and their dynamical behaviour

Two impulsive models of integrated pest management (IPM) strategies are proposed, one with fixed intervention times and the other with these unfixed. The first model allows natural enemies to survive but under some conditions may lead to extinction of the pest. We use a simple prey-dependent consumption model with fixed impulsive effects and show that there exists a globally stable pesteradication periodic solution when the impulsive period is less than certain critical values. The effects of pest resistance to pesticides are also studied. The second model is constructed in the light of IPM practice such that when the pest population reaches the economic injury level (EIL), a combination of biological, cultural, and chemical tactics that reduce pests to tolerable levels is invoked. Using analytical methods, we show that there exists an orbitally asymptotically stable periodic solution with a maximum value no larger than the given Economic Threshold (ET). The complete expression for this periodic solution is given and the ET is evaluated for given parameters.We also show that in some cases control costs can be reduced by replacing IPM interventions at unfixed times with periodic interventions. Further, we show that small perturbations of the system do not affect the existence and stability of the periodic solution. Thus, we provide the first demonstration using mathematical models that an IPM strategy is more effective than classical control methods.     

Pest management through continuous and impulsive control strategies

In this paper, we propose two mathematical models concerning continuous and, respectively, impulsive pest control strategies. In the case in which a continuous control is used, it is shown that the model admits a globally asymptotically stable positive equilibrium under appropriate conditions which involve parameter estimations. As a result, the global asymptotic stability of the unique positive equilibrium is used to establish a procedure to maintain the pests at an acceptably low level in the long term. In the case in which an impulsive control is used, it is observed that there exists a globally asymptotically stable susceptible pest-eradication periodic solution on condition that the amount of infective pests released periodically is larger than some critical value. When the amount of infective pests released is less than this critical value, the system is shown to be permanent, which implies that the trivial susceptible pest-eradication solution loses its stability. Further, the existence of a nontrivial periodic solution is also studied by means of numerical simulation. Finally, the efficiency of continuous and impulsive control policies is compared.     

季节性和综合害虫管理策略实施时间对害虫控制的影响(英文)

通过建立具有季节变化和综合脉冲控制效应的非自治捕食与被捕食模型,我们得到了保证害虫根除的临界条件,即得到了保证害虫根除周期解全局稳定的充分条件.进而我们讨论了季节性变化以及最优的害虫控制策略实施时间对临界条件的影响.结论显示当害虫种群数量具有季节波动时,系统存在使得临界值达到最小的最优控制策略实施时间.     

Optimum timing for integrated pest management: Modelling rates of pesticide application and natural enemy releases

Many factors including pest natural enemy ratios, starting densities, timings of natural enemy releases, dosages and timings of insecticide applications and instantaneous killing rates of pesticides on both pests and natural enemies can affect the success of IPM control programmes. To address how such factors influence successful pest control, hybrid impulsive pest-natural enemy models with different frequencies of pesticide sprays and natural enemy releases were proposed and analyzed. With releasing both more or less frequent than the sprays, a stability threshold condition for a pest eradication periodic solution is provided. Moreover, the effects of times of spraying pesticides (or releasing natural enemies) and control tactics on the threshold condition were investigated with regard to the extent of depression or resurgence resulting from pulses of pesticide applications. Multiple attractors from which the pest population oscillates with different amplitudes can coexist for a wide range of parameters and the switch-like transitions among these attractors showed that varying dosages and frequencies of insecticide applications and the numbers of natural enemies released are crucial. To see how the pesticide applications could be reduced, we developed a model involving periodic releases of natural enemies with chemical control applied only when the densities of the pest reached the given Economic Threshold. The results indicate that the pest outbreak period or frequency largely depends on the initial densities and the control tactics.     

State-dependent impulsive models of integrated pest management (IPM) strategies and their dynamic consequences

A state-dependent impulsive model is proposed for integrated pest management (IPM). IPM involves combining biological, mechanical, and chemical tactics to reduce pest numbers to tolerable levels after a pest population has reached its economic threshold (ET). The complete expression of an orbitally asymptotically stable periodic solution to the model with a maximum value no larger than the given ET is presented, the existence of which implies that pests can be controlled at or below their ET levels. We also prove that there is no periodic solution with order larger than or equal to three, except for one special case, by using the properties of the LambertW function and Poincare map. Moreover, we show that the existence of an order two periodic solution implies the existence of an order one periodic solution. Various positive invariant sets and attractors of this impulsive semi-dynamical system are described and discussed. In particular, several horseshoe-like attractors, whose interiors can simultaneously contain stable order 1 periodic solutions and order 2 periodic solutions, are found and the interior structure of the horseshoe-like attractors is discussed. Finally, the largest invariant set and the sufficient conditions which guarantee the global orbital and asymptotic stability of the order 1 periodic solution in the meaningful domain for the system are given using the Lyapunov function. Our results show that, in theory, a pest can be controlled such that its population size is no larger than its ET by applying effects impulsively once, twice, or at most, a finite number of times, or according to a periodic regime. Moreover, our theoretical work suggests how IPM strategies could be used to alter the levels of the ET in the farmers' favour.     

Impulsive control strategies in biological control of pesticide

By presenting and analyzing the pest-predator model under insecticides used impulsively, two impulsive strategies in biological control are put forward. The first strategy: the pulse period is fixed, but the proportional constant E(1) changes, which represents the fraction of pests killed by applying insecticide. For this scheme, two thresholds, E(1)(**) and E(1)(*) for E(1) are obtained. If E(1)>or=E(1)(*), both the pest and predator (natural enemies) populations go to extinction. If E(1)(**)相似文献   

害虫生物防治的数学模型

文章讨论一类捕食者（天敌）具脉冲放养与食饵（害虫）具阶段结构时滞的捕食-食饵模型,得到了害虫灭绝周期解全局吸引的充分条件和害虫的密度可以控制在经济危害水平E（EIL）之下的脉冲存放周期．为现实的害虫管理提供一定的理论依据．     

一类具有两次脉冲和非线性传染率的害虫管理SI模型的灭绝性与持久性

讨论了一类在两个不同固定时刻分别释放染病害虫和喷洒农药且具有HollingⅡ类传染率的SI模型.通过脉冲微分方程的Floquet理论和小幅扰动技巧,证明了当释放的染病害虫数量超过某个临界值时,系统存在一个渐进稳定的易感害虫根除周期解,否则系统是持续生存的.通过数值模拟,验证了所得结论的正确性及系统动力学行为的复杂性,分析说明了所提出的脉冲控制策略的有效性.     

基于脉冲扰动作用下的一个捕食者-食饵模型的动力学性质

基于害虫的生物控制和化学控制策略,考虑到化学杀虫剂对天敌的影响,利用脉冲微分方程建立了在不同的固定时刻分别喷洒杀虫剂和释放天敌的具有依氏(Ivlev)功能性反应的捕食者-食饵脉冲动力系统．证明了当脉冲周期小于某个临界值时,系统存在一个渐近稳定的害虫根除周期解,否则系统是持续生存的．通过分析表明如果采取有效的化学控制策略,那么这种综害虫合控制策略更有效．     

Multiple attractors of host-parasitoid models with integrated pest management strategies: eradication, persistence and outbreak

Host-parasitoid models including integrated pest management (IPM) interventions with impulsive effects at both fixed and unfixed times were analyzed with regard to host-eradication, host-parasitoid persistence and host-outbreak solutions. The host-eradication periodic solution with fixed moments is globally stable if the host’s intrinsic growth rate is less than the summation of the mean host-killing rate and the mean parasitization rate during the impulsive period. Solutions for all three categories can coexist, with switch-like transitions among their attractors showing that varying dosages and frequencies of insecticide applications and the numbers of parasitoids released are crucial. Periodic solutions also exist for models with unfixed moments for which the maximum amplitude of the host is less than the economic threshold. The dosages and frequencies of IPM interventions for these solutions are much reduced in comparison with the pest-eradication periodic solution. Our results, which are robust to inclusion of stochastic effects and with a wide range of parameter values, confirm that IPM is more effective than any single control tactic.     

具有脉冲投放捕食者阶段结构时滞的捕食-食饵模型

讨论了具有阶段结构脉冲时滞的HollinglI功能反应的捕食模型,其中天敌（益虫）进行人工脉冲周期投放,害虫具有阶段结构及成熟期的时滞现象,并进行了系统的数学及生物方面的研究．利用脉冲及时滞微分方程的基本知识证明了该害虫根除周期解的唯一性和全局吸引性．进一步证明了当天敌的投放量或者投放周期在一定的范围内,能够控制害虫在作物的经济危害水平（EIL）运行的情况下使天敌与害虫可以共存．得出的结论为害虫治理提供了策略基础．     

Two models of interfering predators in impulsive biological control

In this paper, we study the effects of Beddington-DeAngelis interference and squabbling, respectively, on the minimal rate of predator release required to drive a pest population to zero. A two-dimensional system of coupled ordinary differential equations is considered, augmented by an impulsive component depicting the periodic release of predators into the system. This periodic release takes place independently of the detection of the pests in the field. We establish the existence of a pest-free solution driven by the periodic releases, and express the global stability conditions for this solution in terms of the minimal predator rate required to bring an outbreak of pests to nil. In particular, we show that with the interference effects, the minimal rate will only guarantee eradication if the releases are carried out frequently enough. When Beddington-DeAngelis behaviour is considered, an additional constraint for the existence itself of a successful release rate is that the pest growth rate should be less than the predation pressure, the latter explicitly formulated in terms of the predation function and the interference parameters.     

Extinction and permanence of one-prey multi-predators of Holling type II function response system with impulsive biological control

In this paper, one investigates the dynamic behaviors of one-prey multi-predator model with Holling type II functional response by introducing impulsive biological control strategy (periodic releasing natural enemies at different fixed time). By using Floquet theorem and small amplitude perturbation method, it is proved that there exists an asymptotically stable pest-eradication periodic solution when the impulsive period is less than some critical value and permanence condition is established via the method of comparison involving multiple Liapunov functions. It is shown that multi-predator impulsive control strategy is more effective than the classical and single one.     

Modelling and analysis of impulsive releases of sterile mosquitoes

To study the impact of releasing sterile mosquitoes on mosquito-borne disease transmissions, we propose two mathematical models with impulsive releases of sterile mosquitoes. We consider periodic impulsive releases in the first model and obtain the existence, uniqueness, and globally stability of a wild-mosquito-eradication periodic solution. We also establish thresholds for the control of the wild mosquito population by selecting the release rate and the release period. In the second model, the impulsive releases are determined by the closely monitored wild mosquito density, or the state feedback. We prove the existence of an order one periodic solution and find a relatively small attraction region, which ensures the wild mosquito population is under control. We provide numerical analysis which shows that a smaller release rate and more frequent releases are more efficient in controlling the wild mosquito population for the periodic releases, but an early release of sterile mosquitoes is more effective for the state feedback releases.     

The dynamics of a Lotka–Volterra predator–prey model with state dependent impulsive harvest for predator

According to the economic and biological aspects of renewable resources management, we propose a Lotka–Volterra predator–prey model with state dependent impulsive harvest. By using the Poincaré map, some conditions for the existence and stability of positive periodic solution are obtained. Moreover, we show that there is no periodic solution with order larger than or equal to three under some conditions. Numerical results are carried out to illustrate the feasibility of our main results. The bifurcation diagrams of periodic solutions are obtained by using the numerical simulations, and it is shown that a chaotic solution is generated via a cascade of period-doubling bifurcations, which implies that the presence of pulses makes the dynamic behavior more complex.     

Self-sustained oscillations in epidemic models with infective immigrants

A relevant issue related to eco-epidemiological studies concerns the demographic mechanisms that can lead to self-sustained oscillations in the composition of a host population subject to infection. In particular, why does the prevalence of some contagious diseases oscillate over time? Here, we address this question by using susceptible-infective-recovered-empty models including migration of infective foreigners and variable population size. These models are described in terms of ordinary differential equations (ODE) and also in terms of probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA), in which each cell is connected to others either by a regular lattice or by a random graph favoring local contacts. Each cell in the PCA model can be either empty or occupied by a single individual. The amount of neighbors per cell affects the value of the basic reproduction number R₀, which is, in fact, a bifurcation parameter. We show that, by varying the amount of neighbors per cell (and consequently R₀), the number of infective individuals can start to exhibit periodic behavior, which corresponds to a Hopf bifurcation in the ODE model. This bifurcation gives rise to a self-sustained oscillation and it can only occur if the immigration rate of infective individuals is above a critical value. We also investigate how the sum of new infections, within the considered time window, depends on the number of neighbors per cell.     

具有阶段结构和群体防卫的脉冲捕食系统

讨论了食饵具有群体防卫和捕食者具有阶段结构的脉冲控制捕食系统,根据Floquet乘子理论和脉冲比较定理,获得了食饵（害虫）灭绝周期解局部稳定与系统持续生存的充分条件．利用Matlab软件对害虫灭绝周期解和害虫周期爆发现象进行了数值模拟,并揭示了诸如高倍周期振荡,混沌,吸引子突变等复杂的动力学现象．得出的结论为害虫治理提供了可靠的策略依据．     

Separable models in age-dependent population dynamics

A class of population models is considered in which the parameters such as fecundity, mortality and interaction coefficients are assumed to be age-dependent. Conditions for the existence, stability and global attractivity of steady-state and periodic solutions are derived. The dependence of these solutions on the maturation periods is analyzed. These results are applied to specific single and multiple population models. It is shown that periodic solutions cannot occur in a general class of single population age-dependent models. Conditions are derived that determine whether increasing the maturation period has a stabilizing effect. In specific cases, it is shown that any number of switches in stability can occur as the maturation period is increased. An example is given of predator-prey model where each one of these stability switches corresponds to a stable steady state losing its stability via a Hopf bifurcation to a periodic solution and regaining its stability upon further increase of the maturation period.     

A juvenile-adult model with periodic vital rates

A global branch of positive cycles is shown to exist for a general discrete time, juvenile-adult model with periodically varying coefficients. The branch bifurcates from the extinction state at a critical value of the mean, inherent fertility rate. In comparison to the autonomous system with the same mean fertility rate, the critical bifurcation value can either increase or decrease with the introduction of periodicities. Thus, periodic oscillations in vital parameter can be either advantageous or deleterious. A determining factor is the phase relationship among the oscillations in the inherent fertility and survival rates.Research supported by NSF grant DMS-0414212.     

一个污染环境中的单种群模型的动力学性质

以脉冲微分方程为基础建立了一个污染环境中在固定时刻对污染净化处理的单种群模型,详细研究了此模型的动力学性质,给出了种群灭绝和持续生存的充分条件.结果表明,当脉冲作用的周期小于某个阈值时,种群将持续生存;否则,种群将趋于灭绝.