Housing arrangement and location determine the likelihood of housing loss due to wildfire

Surging wildfires across the globe are contributing to escalating residential losses and have major social, economic, and ecological consequences. The highest losses in the U.S. occur in southern California, where nearly 1000 homes per year have been destroyed by wildfires since 2000. Wildfire risk reduction efforts focus primarily on fuel reduction and, to a lesser degree, on house characteristics and homeowner responsibility. However, the extent to which land use planning could alleviate wildfire risk has been largely missing from the debate despite large numbers of homes being placed in the most hazardous parts of the landscape. Our goal was to examine how housing location and arrangement affects the likelihood that a home will be lost when a wildfire occurs. We developed an extensive geographic dataset of structure locations, including more than 5500 structures that were destroyed or damaged by wildfire since 2001, and identified the main contributors to property loss in two extensive, fire-prone regions in southern California. The arrangement and location of structures strongly affected their susceptibility to wildfire, with property loss most likely at low to intermediate structure densities and in areas with a history of frequent fire. Rates of structure loss were higher when structures were surrounded by wildland vegetation, but were generally higher in herbaceous fuel types than in higher fuel-volume woody types. Empirically based maps developed using housing pattern and location performed better in distinguishing hazardous from non-hazardous areas than maps based on fuel distribution. The strong importance of housing arrangement and location indicate that land use planning may be a critical tool for reducing fire risk, but it will require reliable delineations of the most hazardous locations.     

全球变化背景下野火研究进展

野火是森林和多种植被生态系统面临的最重要自然干扰,也是一种重要的自然灾害;而人类活动已在全球范围内显著影响了野火的发生与分布,因此野火成为全球变化及其环境影响研究的关键议题之一。本文基于国际野火研究的文献搜索和统计分析,从野火的观测-评估-预警技术、野火时空格局研究、气候变化和人类活动对野火的影响、野火的环境-生态-进化效应等方面入手,综述了自21世纪以来的国际野火研究进展。概括起来,遥感技术的快速发展,推动了野火观测的时空分辨率不断提高,对野火时空格局的刻画从单一因子向多重指标的火烧体系评估转变。气候变化在某些区域已经显著影响了野火的发生频率,预计随着全球变暖野火风险将进一步加大,并且极端大火的发生机制和生态影响越来越受到关注。人类活动一方面通过增加火源提高了野火频率,另一方面又通过提高生态系统管理的强度、扑救火灾以及降低可燃物的连通性抑制了野火的发生。植被在长期演化过程中形成了一系列适应火的功能机制,这些功能属性影响着生态系统对野火的响应,并对火后生态恢复和重建具有科学指导价值。未来野火研究将向跨时空尺度、观测和模拟深度融合、典型机制和大尺度效应相结合的方向发展。     

The effect of wildfire on scattered trees, ‘keystone structures’, in agricultural landscapes

Scattered trees are considered ‘keystone structures’ in many agricultural landscapes worldwide because of the disproportionate effect they have on ecosystem function and biodiversity. Populations of these trees are in decline in many regions. Understanding the processes driving these declines is crucial for better management. Here, we examine the impact of wildfire on populations of this keystone resource. We examined 62 observation plots affected by wildfire and matched with 62 control observation plots where fire was absent. Counts of scattered trees were conducted pre‐fire in 2005 and repeated post‐fire in 2011. Changes in populations were compared between the control and fire‐affected observation plots. Our results show wildfire had a significant local impact, with an average decline of 19.9% in scattered tree populations on burned plots. In contrast, scattered trees increased on average by 5.3% in the control observation plots. The impact of wildfire was amplified (as revealed by greater percentage tree losses) by larger wildfires. Wildfire effects on scattered tree populations are of concern, given a background of other (usually) chronic stressors (often associated with agriculture) and that the frequency and intensity of wildfire are predicted to increase in many landscapes.     

Severe wildfires promoted by climate change negatively impact forest amphibian metacommunities

Aim

Changes to the extent and severity of wildfires driven by anthropogenic climate change are predicted to have compounding negative consequences for ecological communities. While there is evidence that severe weather events like drought impact amphibian communities, the effects of wildfire on such communities are not well understood. The impact of wildfire on amphibian communities and species is likely to vary, owing to the diversity of their life-history traits. However, no previous research has identified commonalities among the amphibians at most risk from wildfire, limiting conservation initiatives in the aftermath of severe wildfire. We aimed to investigate the impacts of the unprecedented 2019–2020 black summer bushfires on Australian forest amphibian communities.

Location

Eastern coast of New South Wales, Australia.

Methods

We conducted visual encounter surveys and passive acoustic monitoring across 411 sites within two regions, one in northeast and one in southeast New South Wales. We used fire severity and extent mapping in two multispecies occupancy models to assess the impacts of fire on 35 forest amphibian species.

Results

We demonstrate a negative influence of severe fire extent on metacommunity occupancy and species richness in the south with weaker effects in the north—reflective of the less severe fires that occurred in this region. Both threatened and common species were impacted by severe wildfire extent. Occupancy of burrowing species and rain forest specialists had mostly negative relationships with severe wildfire extent, while arboreal amphibians had neutral relationships.

Main Conclusion

Metacommunity monitoring and adaptive conservation strategies are needed to account for common species after severe climatic events. Ecological, morphological and life-history variation drives the susceptibility of amphibians to wildfires. We document the first evidence of climate change-driven wildfires impacting temperate forest amphibian communities across a broad geographic area, which raises serious concern for the persistence of amphibians under an increasingly fire-prone climate.     

Wildfire refugia in forests: Severe fire weather and drought mute the influence of topography and fuel age

Wildfire refugia (unburnt patches within large wildfires) are important for the persistence of fire‐sensitive species across forested landscapes globally. A key challenge is to identify the factors that determine the distribution of fire refugia across space and time. In particular, determining the relative influence of climatic and landscape factors is important in order to understand likely changes in the distribution of wildfire refugia under future climates. Here, we examine the relative effect of weather (i.e. fire weather, drought severity) and landscape features (i.e. topography, fuel age, vegetation type) on the occurrence of fire refugia across 26 large wildfires in south‐eastern Australia. Fire weather and drought severity were the primary drivers of the occurrence of fire refugia, moderating the effect of landscape attributes. Unburnt patches rarely occurred under ‘severe’ fire weather, irrespective of drought severity, topography, fuels or vegetation community. The influence of drought severity and landscape factors played out most strongly under ‘moderate’ fire weather. In mesic forests, fire refugia were linked to variables that affect fuel moisture, whereby the occurrence of unburnt patches decreased with increasing drought conditions and were associated with more mesic topographic locations (i.e. gullies, pole‐facing aspects) and vegetation communities (i.e. closed‐forest). In dry forest, the occurrence of refugia was responsive to fuel age, being associated with recently burnt areas (<5 years since fire). Overall, these results show that increased severity of fire weather and increased drought conditions, both predicted under future climate scenarios, are likely to lead to a reduction of wildfire refugia across forests of southern Australia. Protection of topographic areas able to provide long‐term fire refugia will be an important step towards maintaining the ecological integrity of forests under future climate change.     

Refining the cheatgrass–fire cycle in the Great Basin: Precipitation timing and fine fuel composition predict wildfire trends

Larger, more frequent wildfires in arid and semi‐arid ecosystems have been associated with invasion by non‐native annual grasses, yet a complete understanding of fine fuel development and subsequent wildfire trends is lacking. We investigated the complex relationships among weather, fine fuels, and fire in the Great Basin, USA. We first modeled the annual and time‐lagged effects of precipitation and temperature on herbaceous vegetation cover and litter accumulation over a 26‐year period in the northern Great Basin. We then modeled how these fine fuels and weather patterns influence subsequent wildfires. We found that cheatgrass cover increased in years with higher precipitation and especially when one of the previous 3 years also was particularly wet. Cover of non‐native forbs and native herbs also increased in wet years, but only after several dry years. The area burned by wildfire in a given year was mostly associated with native herb and non‐native forb cover, whereas cheatgrass mainly influenced area burned in the form of litter derived from previous years’ growth. Consequently, multiyear weather patterns, including precipitation in the previous 1–3 years, was a strong predictor of wildfire in a given year because of the time needed to develop these fine fuel loads. The strong relationship between precipitation and wildfire allowed us to expand our inference to 10,162 wildfires across the entire Great Basin over a 35‐year period from 1980 to 2014. Our results suggest that the region's precipitation pattern of consecutive wet years followed by consecutive dry years results in a cycle of fuel accumulation followed by weather conditions that increase the probability of wildfire events in the year when the cycle transitions from wet to dry. These patterns varied regionally but were strong enough to allow us to model annual wildfire risk across the Great Basin based on precipitation alone.     

Agrometeorology in Croatia

Meteorological and Hydrological Service was established 70 years ago and agrometeorological activities (soil temperature measurements and phenological observations) started in 1951. Scientific research is divided into an agricultural meteorology, forest meteorology and plant phenology. The basic purpose of research is the impact of regional climate change on the crop production, on the phenological stages of different plants as forest trees and shrubs, fruit-trees, olive-trees, grapevine and maize, and on the potential wildfire risk. In the operational tasks short-range and medium-range forecasts have been produced for TV and internet since 2004, radio since 1990 and specialized journals since 1988. For further development of Croatian agrometeorology, future plans are using monthly and seasonal forecasts for prediction of the development of yield of major agricultural crops, for irrigation purposes, as well as for potential risk of wildfires and applying satellite data and nowcasting for warning purposes in agriculture and in forest protection against fire.     

The effects of wildfire on mortality and resources for an arboreal marsupial: resilience to fire events but susceptibility to fire regime change

Background

Big environmental disturbances have big ecological effects, yet these are not always what we might expect. Understanding the proximate effects of major disturbances, such as severe wildfires, on individuals, populations and habitats will be essential for understanding how predicted future increases in the frequency of such disturbances will affect ecosystems. However, researchers rarely have access to data from immediately before and after such events. Here we report on the effects of a severe and extensive forest wildfire on mortality, reproductive output and availability of key shelter resources for an arboreal marsupial. We also investigated the behavioural response of individuals to changed shelter resource availability in the post-fire environment.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We fitted proximity-logging radiotransmitters to mountain brushtail possums (Trichosurus cunninghami) before, during and after the 2009 wildfires in Victoria, Australia. Surprisingly, we detected no mortality associated with the fire, and despite a significant post-fire decrease in the proportion of females carrying pouch young in the burnt area, there was no short-term post-fire population decline. The major consequence of this fire for mountain brushtail possums was the loss of over 80% of hollow-bearing trees. The types of trees preferred as shelter sites (highly decayed dead standing trees) were those most likely to collapse after fire. Individuals adapted to resource decline by being more flexible in resource selection after the fire, but not by increased resource sharing.

Conclusions/Significance

Despite short-term demographic resilience and behavioural adaptation following this fire, the major loss of decayed hollow trees suggests the increased frequency of stand-replacing wildfires predicted under climate change will pose major challenges for shelter resource availability for hollow-dependent fauna. Hollow-bearing trees are typically biological legacies of previous forest generations in post-fire regrowth forests but will cease to be recruited to future regrowth forests if the interval between severe fires becomes too rapid for hollow formation.     

Wildfire risk for main vegetation units in a biodiversity hotspot: modeling approach in New Caledonia,South Pacific

Wildfire has been recognized as one of the most ubiquitous disturbance agents to impact on natural environments. In this study, our main objective was to propose a modeling approach to investigate the potential impact of wildfire on biodiversity. The method is illustrated with an application example in New Caledonia where conservation and sustainable biodiversity management represent an important challenge. Firstly, a biodiversity loss index, including the diversity and the vulnerability indexes, was calculated for every vegetation unit in New Caledonia and mapped according to its distribution over the New Caledonian mainland. Then, based on spatially explicit fire behavior simulations (using the FLAMMAP software) and fire ignition probabilities, two original fire risk assessment approaches were proposed: a one‐off event model and a multi‐event burn probability model. The spatial distribution of fire risk across New Caledonia was similar for both indices with very small localized spots having high risk. The patterns relating to highest risk are all located around the remaining sclerophyll forest fragments and are representing 0.012% of the mainland surface. A small part of maquis and areas adjacent to dense humid forest on ultramafic substrates should also be monitored. Vegetation interfaces between secondary and primary units displayed high risk and should represent priority zones for fire effects mitigation. Low fire ignition probability in anthropogenic‐free areas decreases drastically the risk. A one‐off event associated risk allowed localizing of the most likely ignition areas with potential for extensive damage. Emergency actions could aim limiting specific fire spread known to have high impact or consist of on targeting high risk areas to limit one‐off fire ignitions. Spatially explicit information on burning probability is necessary for setting strategic fire and fuel management planning. Both risk indices provide clues to preserve New Caledonia hot spot of biodiversity facing wildfires.     

Macroscopic fossil charcoals as proxy of a local fire linked to conifer-rich forest from the late Pliocene of northwestern Yunnan,Southwest China

Yunnan at southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau is subject to frequent wildfires each year, while its wildfire history remains poorly known due to the lack of studies on palaeofire in the region. In this study, we report a local fire from the late Pliocene of northwestern Yunnan, based on macroscopic fossil charcoals recovered from the Sanying Formation of Lanping Basin. These sedimentary charcoals exhibit silky lustre in the light and complete homogenization of adjacent xylem cell walls, characterizing the result of incomplete combustion during the late Pliocene. Our preliminary taxonomic analysis indicates that the studied charcoals are dominated by conifers, suggesting higher importance of coniferous elements as fuel sources in the fire. We assert a conifer-rich source forest for the fire event by also considering plant remains of other types, i.e., needle fragments, small shoots, fruits and seeds, from the same sampling layer. Since conifers are commonly prone to wildfires, this type of forest might have a close link with the fire by serving highly flammable fuels. We consider that the regionally seasonal drought during the late Pliocene might also take responsibility, because in the dry season forest fuels such as ground litter would become ignitable after intensive desiccation. As modern wildfires in northwestern Yunnan are closely coupled with conifer-dominant forests and seasonally dry climate, we assume this correlation might have been established by the late Pliocene. Our study may bring attention to potential roles of wildfire on local and/or regional flora and vegetation evolution in this region.     

Broadleaf tree phenology and springtime wildfire occurrence in boreal Canada

Although broadleaf tree species of the boreal biome have a lower flammability compared to conifers, there is a period following snow melt and prior to leaf flush (i.e., greenup), termed the “spring window” by fire managers, when these forests are relatively conducive to wildfire ignition and spread. The goal of this study was to characterize the duration, timing, and fire proneness of the spring window across boreal Canada and assess the link between these phenological variables and the incidence of springtime wildfires. We used remotely sensed snow cover and greenup data to identify the annual spring window for five boreal ecozones from 2001 to 2021 and then compared seasonality of wildfire starts (by cause) and fire-conducive weather in relation to this window, averaged over the 21-year period. We conducted a path analysis to concomitantly evaluate the influence of the spring window's duration, the timing of greenup, and fire-conducive weather on the annual number and the seasonality of spring wildfires. Results show that the characteristics of spring windows vary substantially from year to year and among geographic zones, with the interior west of Canada having the longest and most fire-conducive spread window and, accordingly, the greatest springtime wildfire activity. We also provide support for the belief that springtime weather generally promotes wind-driven, rather than drought-driven wildfires. The path analyses show idiosyncratic behavior among ecozones, but, in general, the seasonality of the wildfire season is mainly driven by the timing of the greenup, whereas the number of spring wildfires mostly responds to the duration of the spring window and the frequency of fire-conducive weather. The results of this study allows us to better understand and anticipate the biome-wide changes projected for the northern forests of North America.     

Wildfire potential evaluation during a drought event with a regional climate model and NDVI

Regional climate modeling is a technique for simulating high-resolution physical processes in the atmosphere, soil and vegetation. It can be used to evaluate wildfire potential by either providing meteorological conditions for computation of fire indices or predicting soil moisture as a direct measure of fire potential. This study examines these roles using a regional climate model (RCM) for the drought and wildfire events in 1988 in the northern United States. The National Center for Atmospheric Research regional climate model (RegCM) was used to conduct simulations of a summer month in each year from 1988 to 1995. The simulated precipitation and maximum surface air temperature were used to calculate the Keetch–Byram Drought Index (KBDI), which is a popular fire potential index. We found that the KBDI increased significantly under the simulated drought condition. The corresponding fire potential was upgraded from moderate for a normal year to high level for the drought year. High fire potential is often an indicator for occurrence of intense and extensive wildfires. Fire potential changed in the opposite direction for the 1993 flood event, indicating little possibility of severe wildfires. The soil moisture and KBDI evaluations under the drought and flood conditions are in agreement with satellite remotely sensed vegetation conditions and the actual wildfire activity. The precipitation anomaly was a more important contributor to the KBDI changes than temperature anomaly. The small magnitude of the simulated soil moisture anomalies during the drought event did not provide sufficient evidence for the role of simulated soil moisture as a direct measure of wildfire potential.     

Wildfire–vegetation dynamics affect predictions of climate change impact on bird communities

Community‐level climate change indicators have been proposed to appraise the impact of global warming on community composition. However, non‐climate factors may also critically influence species distribution and biological community assembly. The aim of this paper was to study how fire–vegetation dynamics can modify our ability to predict the impact of climate change on bird communities, as described through a widely‐used climate change indicator: the community thermal index (CTI). Potential changes in bird species assemblage were predicted using the spatially‐explicit species assemblage modelling framework – SESAM – that applies successive filters to constrained predictions of richness and composition obtained by stacking species distribution models that hierarchically integrate climate change and wildfire–vegetation dynamics. We forecasted future values of CTI between current conditions and 2050, across a wide range of fire–vegetation and climate change scenarios. Fire–vegetation dynamics were simulated for Catalonia (Mediterranean basin) using a process‐based model that reproduces the spatial interaction between wildfire, vegetation dynamics and wildfire management under two IPCC climate scenarios. Net increases in CTI caused by the concomitant impact of climate warming and an increasingly severe wildfire regime were predicted. However, the overall increase in the CTI could be partially counterbalanced by forest expansion via land abandonment and efficient wildfire suppression policies. CTI is thus strongly dependent on complex interactions between climate change and fire–vegetation dynamics. The potential impacts on bird communities may be underestimated if an overestimation of richness is predicted but not constrained. Our findings highlight the need to explicitly incorporate these interactions when using indicators to interpret and forecast climate change impact in dynamic ecosystems. In fire‐prone systems, wildfire management and land‐use policies can potentially offset or heighten the effects of climate change on biological communities, offering an opportunity to address the impact of global climate change proactively.     

Increasing western US forest wildfire activity: sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring

Prior work shows western US forest wildfire activity increased abruptly in the mid-1980s. Large forest wildfires and areas burned in them have continued to increase over recent decades, with most of the increase in lightning-ignited fires. Northern US Rockies forests dominated early increases in wildfire activity, and still contributed 50% of the increase in large fires over the last decade. However, the percentage growth in wildfire activity in Pacific northwestern and southwestern US forests has rapidly increased over the last two decades. Wildfire numbers and burned area are also increasing in non-forest vegetation types. Wildfire activity appears strongly associated with warming and earlier spring snowmelt. Analysis of the drivers of forest wildfire sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring demonstrates that forests at elevations where the historical mean snow-free season ranged between two and four months, with relatively high cumulative warm-season actual evapotranspiration, have been most affected. Increases in large wildfires associated with earlier spring snowmelt scale exponentially with changes in moisture deficit, and moisture deficit changes can explain most of the spatial variability in forest wildfire regime response to the timing of spring.This article is part of the themed issue ‘The interaction of fire and mankind’.     

Stand-replacing wildfires alter the community structure of wood-inhabiting fungi in southwestern ponderosa pine forests of the USA

Increases in stand-replacing wildfires in the western USA have widespread implications for ecosystem carbon (C) cycling, in part because the decomposition of trees killed by fire can be a long-term source of CO₂ to the atmosphere. Knowledge of the composition and function of decay fungi communities may be important to understanding how wildfire alters C cycles. We assessed the effects of stand-replacing wildfires on the community structure of wood-inhabiting fungi along a 32-yr wildfire chronosequence. Fire was associated with low species richness for up to 4 yr and altered species composition relative to unburned forest for the length of the chronosequence. A laboratory incubation demonstrated that species varied in their capacity to decompose wood; Hypocrea lixii, an indicator of the most recent burn, caused the lowest decomposition rate. Our results show that stand-replacing wildfires have long-term effects on fungal communities, which may have consequences for wood decomposition and C cycling.     

A Bayesian modeling of wildfire probability in the Zagros Mountains,Iran

The preparation of probability distribution maps is the first important step in risk assessment and wildfire management. Here we employed Weights-of-Evidence (WOE) Bayesian modeling to investigate the spatial relationship between historical fire events in the Chaharmahal-Bakhtiari Province of Iran, using a wide range of binary predictor variables (i.e., presence or absence of a variable characteristic or condition) that represent topography, climate, and human activities. Model results were used to produce distribution maps of wildfire probability. Our modeling approach is based on the assumption that the probabilities reflect the observed proportions of the total landscape area occupied by the corresponding events (i.e., fire incident or no fire) and conditions (i.e., classes) of predictor variables. To assess the effect of each predictor variable on model outputs, we excluded each variable in turn during calculations. The results were validated and compared by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) using both success rate and prediction rate curves. Seventy percent of fire events were used for the former, while the remainder was used for the latter. The validation results showed that the area under the curves (AUC) for success and prediction rates of the model that included all thirteen predictor variables that represent topography, climate, and human influences were 84.6 and 80.4%, respectively. The highest AUC for success and prediction rates (86.8 and 84.6%) were achieved when the altitude variable was excluded from the analysis. We found slightly decreased AUC values when the slope-aspect and proximity to settlements variables were excluded. These findings clearly demonstrate that the probability of a fire is strongly dependent upon the topographic characteristics of landscapes and, perhaps more importantly, human infrastructure and associated human activities. The results from this study may be useful for land use planning, decision-making for wildfire management, and the allocation of fire resources prior to the start of the main fire season.     

Adapting to global environmental change in Patagonia: What role for disturbance ecology?

Research from the Patagonian‐Andean region is used to explore challenges and opportunities related to the integration of research on wildfire activity into a broader earth‐system science framework that views the biosphere and atmosphere as a coupled interacting system for understanding the causes and consequences of future wildfire activity. We examine how research in disturbance ecology can inform land‐use and other policy decisions in the context of probable future increases in wildfire activity driven by climate forcing. Climate research has related recent warming and drying trends in much of Patagonia to an upward trend in the Southern Annular Mode which is the leading pattern of extratropical climate variability in the southern hemisphere. Although still limited in spatial extent, tree‐ring fire history studies are beginning to reveal regional patterns of the top‐down climate influences on temporal and spatial pattern of wildfire occurrence in Patagonia. Knowledge of relationships of fire activity to climate variability in the context of predicted future warming leads to the hypothesis that wildfire activity in Patagonia will increase substantially during the first half of the 21st century. In addition to this anticipated increase in extreme fire events due to climate forcing, we further hypothesize that current land‐use trends will increase the extent and/or severity of fire events through bottom‐up (i.e. land surface) influences on wildfire potential. In particular, policy discussions of how to mitigate impacts of climate warming on fire potential need to consider research results from disturbance ecology on the implications of continued planting of flammable non‐native trees and the role of introduced herbivores in favouring vegetation changes that may enhance landscape flammability.     

Importance of fire in influencing the occurrence of snakes in an upland region of arid Australia

In arid Australia, changes to historic fire regimes may now produce more large‐scale wildfire events. The impacts of these fires on fauna communities are poorly known. We sought to test the impacts of fire on the occurrence of two arid‐zone snake species, the desert death adder (Acanthophis pyrrhus) and monk snake (Parasuta monachus), specialist inhabitants of hummock grassland and mulga shrubland, respectively. We also examined the influence of fire on the occurrence of a habitat generalist, the sympatric Stimson's python (Antaresia stimsoni). Under an Information‐Theoretic framework we modelled the occurrence of each species with a range of habitat variables, including fire history, using logistic regression. As predicted, the two habitat specialists were more likely to be encountered at locations that had a lower percentage of surrounding area burnt in the most recent wildfires (2002), while fire variables failed to predict the occurrence of the habitat generalist. Acanthophis pyrrhus, already predisposed to endangerment through a suite of life‐history characteristics, may be at increased risk through accidental and deliberate burning and fragmentation of old‐growth hummock grasslands. We stress the importance of prescribed burning and natural fire breaks in maintaining areas of old‐growth hummock grassland across the landscape.     

Assessing wildfire vulnerability of vegetated serpentine soils in the Balkan peninsula

The endemic vegetation on serpentine soils is remarkably diverse and usually of low productivity and recovers slowly after major disturbances like wildfires and subsequent runoff, erosion, and landslides. Climate change and anthropogenic factors may increase the vulnerability of these ecosystems to disturbances with social and ecological consequences. The assessment of wildfire risks of these habitats is crucial for a targeted management to protect ecological, agricultural, and urban systems. The major goal of this study is to highlight the importance and utility of wildfire risk assessment for sustainable management of serpentine soils and the related vegetation cover. In this paper we present an example from Albania where the coverage of serpentine soils (11.2%) is about four times higher than the global average (3%). We used the wildfire ignition probability index (WIPI) and wildfire spreading capacity index (WSCI) as wildfire risk indicators. WIPI values were more evenly distributed while higher WSCI values were mostly concentrated in remote, high-elevation areas. The inner areas within serpentine soils were at lower risk regarding wildfire ignition, while higher values were found at the borders of serpentine soils that are closer to urban and residential areas. The distribution of normalized wildfire risk indices by vegetation type showed that overall habitats covered by sclerophyllous vegetation had the highest risk for wildfire ignition, followed by forested areas, while moors and heathland had the lowest risk. On the other hand, the WSCI was higher for forested areas, especially broad-leaved, coniferous, and mixed forests. Higher WIPI and WSCI values were associated with municipalities with less resources to mitigate the consequences for wildlife and implement preventive measures. According to our study, considerable surfaces of vegetation covering the serpentine soils in Albania are exposed to significant wildfire ignition and spreading risks. We argue that these areas need to be considered for a special protection status. This would facilitate a proper management of this unique soil type and improve the conservation of these fragile ecosystems.     

Local forest structure variability increases resilience to wildfire in dry western U.S. coniferous forests

A ‘resilient’ forest endures disturbance and is likely to persist. Resilience to wildfire may arise from feedback between fire behaviour and forest structure in dry forest systems. Frequent fire creates fine‐scale variability in forest structure, which may then interrupt fuel continuity and prevent future fires from killing overstorey trees. Testing the generality and scale of this phenomenon is challenging for vast, long‐lived forest ecosystems. We quantify forest structural variability and fire severity across >30 years and >1000 wildfires in California's Sierra Nevada. We find that greater variability in forest structure increases resilience by reducing rates of fire‐induced tree mortality and that the scale of this effect is local, manifesting at the smallest spatial extent of forest structure tested (90 × 90 m). Resilience of these forests is likely compromised by structural homogenisation from a century of fire suppression, but could be restored with management that increases forest structural variability.