Transmission of influenza reflects seasonality of wild birds across the annual cycle

Influenza A Viruses (IAV) in nature must overcome shifting transmission barriers caused by the mobility of their primary host, migratory wild birds, that change throughout the annual cycle. Using a phylogenetic network of viral sequences from North American wild birds (2008–2011) we demonstrate a shift from intraspecific to interspecific transmission that along with reassortment, allows IAV to achieve viral flow across successive seasons from summer to winter. Our study supports amplification of IAV during summer breeding seeded by overwintering virus persisting locally and virus introduced from a wide range of latitudes. As birds migrate from breeding sites to lower latitudes, they become involved in transmission networks with greater connectivity to other bird species, with interspecies transmission of reassortant viruses peaking during the winter. We propose that switching transmission dynamics may be a critical strategy for pathogens that infect mobile hosts inhabiting regions with strong seasonality.     

Infectious offspring: how birds acquire and transmit an avian polyomavirus in the wild

Detailed patterns of primary virus acquisition and subsequent dispersal in wild vertebrate populations are virtually absent. We show that nestlings of a songbird acquire polyomavirus infections from larval blowflies, common nest ectoparasites of cavity-nesting birds, while breeding adults acquire and renew the same viral infections via cloacal shedding from their offspring. Infections by these DNA viruses, known potential pathogens producing disease in some bird species, therefore follow an 'upwards vertical' route of an environmental nature mimicking horizontal transmission within families, as evidenced by patterns of viral infection in adults and young of experimental, cross-fostered offspring. This previously undescribed route of viral transmission from ectoparasites to offspring to parent hosts may be a common mechanism of virus dispersal in many taxa that display parental care.     

Genotype and sex-based host variation in behaviour and susceptibility drives population disease dynamics

Host heterogeneity in pathogen transmission is widespread and presents a major hurdle to predicting and minimizing disease outbreaks. Using Drosophila melanogaster infected with Drosophila C virus as a model system, we integrated experimental measurements of social aggregation, virus shedding, and disease-induced mortality from different genetic lines and sexes into a disease modelling framework. The experimentally measured host heterogeneity produced substantial differences in simulated disease outbreaks, providing evidence for genetic and sex-specific effects on disease dynamics at a population level. While this was true for homogeneous populations of single sex/genetic line, the genetic background or sex of the index case did not alter outbreak dynamics in simulated, heterogeneous populations. Finally, to explore the relative effects of social aggregation, viral shedding and mortality, we compared simulations where we allowed these traits to vary, as measured experimentally, to simulations where we constrained variation in these traits to the population mean. In this context, variation in infectiousness, followed by social aggregation, was the most influential component of transmission. Overall, we show that host heterogeneity in three host traits dramatically affects population-level transmission, but the relative impact of this variation depends on both the susceptible population diversity and the distribution of population-level variation.     

TLR2 Signaling Decreases Transmission of Streptococcus pneumoniae by Limiting Bacterial Shedding in an Infant Mouse Influenza A Co-infection Model

While the importance of transmission of pathogens is widely accepted, there is currently little mechanistic understanding of this process. Nasal carriage of Streptococcus pneumoniae (the pneumococcus) is common in humans, especially in early childhood, and is a prerequisite for the development of disease and transmission among hosts. In this study, we adapted an infant mouse model to elucidate host determinants of transmission of S. pneumoniae from inoculated index mice to uninfected contact mice. In the context of co-infection with influenza A virus, the pneumococcus was transmitted among wildtype littermates, with approximately half of the contact mice acquiring colonization. Mice deficient for TLR2 were colonized to a similar density but transmitted S. pneumoniae more efficiently (100% transmission) than wildtype animals and showed decreased expression of interferon α and higher viral titers. The greater viral burden in tlr2^−/− mice correlated with heightened inflammation, and was responsible for an increase in bacterial shedding from the mouse nose. The role of TLR2 signaling was confirmed by intranasal treatment of wildtype mice with the agonist Pam3Cys, which decreased inflammation and reduced bacterial shedding and transmission. Taken together, these results suggest that the innate immune response to influenza virus promotes bacterial shedding, allowing the bacteria to transit from host to host. These findings provide insight into the role of host factors in the increased pneumococcal carriage rates seen during flu season and contribute to our overall understanding of pathogen transmission.     

Deposition of pathogenic Mycoplasma gallisepticum onto bird feeders: host pathology is more important than temperature-driven increases in food intake

Although ambient temperature has diverse effects on disease dynamics, few studies have examined how temperature alters pathogen transmission by changing host physiology or behaviour. Here, we test whether reducing ambient temperature alters host foraging, pathology and the potential for fomite transmission of the bacterial pathogen Mycoplasma gallisepticum (MG), which causes seasonal outbreaks of severe conjunctivitis in house finches (Haemorhous mexicanus). We housed finches at temperatures within or below the thermoneutral zone to manipulate food intake by altering energetic requirements of thermoregulation. We predicted that pathogen deposition on bird feeders would increase with temperature-driven increases in food intake and with conjunctival pathology. As expected, housing birds below the thermoneutral zone increased food consumption. Despite this difference, pathogen deposition on feeders did not vary across temperature treatments. However, pathogen deposition increased with conjunctival pathology, independently of temperature and pathogen load, suggesting that MG could enhance its transmission by increasing virulence. Our results suggest that in this system, host physiological responses are more important for transmission potential than temperature-dependent alterations in feeding. Understanding such behavioural and physiological contributions to disease transmission is critical to linking individual responses to climate with population-level disease dynamics.     

The role of breeding phenology and aggregation of waterfowl on avian influenza dynamics in southern Africa

Recent outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (AIV) in birds, humans and other mammalian species calls for a better understanding of virus dynamics in wild bird species and populations that act as maintenance hosts. Host ecology influences the transmission of pathogens and can be used to explore and infer pathogen dynamics. Most of the ecological processes proposed to explain AIV transmission in wild birds have been derived from studies conducted in the temperate and boreal regions of the northern hemisphere. We evaluate the role of two key drivers of AIV dynamics in a waterfowl community in Zimbabwe (southern Africa): (1) the recruitment of young birds and (2) the seasonal aggregation of birds. We analyse the seasonal variation of AIV prevalence in waterfowl and overlay these data with the phenology of reproduction and the seasonal variation in the local abundance of these species. We find that the breeding period of southern Afrotropical waterfowl species is more extended and somewhat less synchronized among species in the community than is the case in temperate and boreal waterfowl communities. Young birds are recorded at most times of the year, and these immunologically naïve individuals can therefore act as new hosts for AIV throughout the year within the wild bird population. Although host aggregation peaks in the cold‐dry to hot‐dry season, birds still aggregate throughout the year and this potentially spreads the opportunities for first infection of juveniles and other naïve birds temporally. We did not find a relationship between season, AIV prevalence in waterfowl, the influx of juveniles or the gradual aggregation of birds during the dry season. Therefore, the main drivers of AIV dynamics (juvenile influx and host abundance/aggregation), although present in Afrotropical regions, could not explain the AIV seasonal patterns in our study in contrast to results reported from temperate and boreal regions. These differences imply variation in the risk of AIV circulation in waterfowl and in the risk of spread to poultry, other animals or humans.     

我国野生鸟类疫病传播风险及防范措施

众多疫病病毒来源于野生动物,具有向人类传播的风险,尤其是具有飞翔能力的鸟类不易控制,所携带的病毒传播广泛,威胁人畜安全。因此,充分了解鸟类携带疫病情况以及鸟类迁徙路线中重点区域的疫病风险,对疫病防控非常重要。本文总结了鸟类主要携带的病原类型,如冠状病毒、流感病毒、寄生虫和新城疫病毒等。着重探讨鸟类携带病原对生物安全防范重点区域的人员和动物的疫病风险,包括自然保护区、机场和禽类养殖场等,并从加强候鸟迁徙的动态监测、加强栖息地检疫和保护、家禽定期疫苗接种等方面提出疫病防范措施。     

Are we overestimating risk of enteric pathogen spillover from wild birds to humans?

Enteric illnesses remain the second largest source of communicable diseases worldwide, and wild birds are suspected sources for human infection. This has led to efforts to reduce pathogen spillover through deterrence of wildlife and removal of wildlife habitat, particularly within farming systems, which can compromise conservation efforts and the ecosystem services wild birds provide. Further, Salmonella spp. are a significant cause of avian mortality, leading to additional conservation concerns. Despite numerous studies of enteric bacteria in wild birds and policies to discourage birds from food systems, we lack a comprehensive understanding of wild bird involvement in transmission of enteric bacteria to humans. Here, we propose a framework for understanding spillover of enteric pathogens from wild birds to humans, which includes pathogen acquisition, reservoir competence and bacterial shedding, contact with people and food, and pathogen survival in the environment. We place the literature into this framework to identify important knowledge gaps. Second, we conduct a meta‐analysis of prevalence data for three human enteric pathogens, Campylobacter spp., E. coli, and Salmonella spp., in 431 North American breeding bird species. Our literature review revealed that only 3% of studies addressed the complete system of pathogen transmission. In our meta‐analysis, we found a Campylobacter spp. prevalence of 27% across wild birds, while prevalence estimates of pathogenic E. coli (20%) and Salmonella spp. (6.4%) were lower. There was significant bias in which bird species have been tested, with most studies focusing on a small number of taxa that are common near people (e.g. European starlings Sturnus vulgaris and rock pigeons Columba livia) or commonly in contact with human waste (e.g. gulls). No pathogen prevalence data were available for 65% of North American breeding bird species, including many commonly in contact with humans (e.g. black‐billed magpie Pica hudsonia and great blue heron Ardea herodias), and our metadata suggest that some under‐studied species, taxonomic groups, and guilds may represent equivalent or greater risk to human infection than heavily studied species. We conclude that current data do not provide sufficient information to determine the likelihood of enteric pathogen spillover from wild birds to humans and thus preclude management solutions. The primary focus in the literature on pathogen prevalence likely overestimates the probability of enteric pathogen spillover from wild birds to humans because a pathogen must survive long enough at an infectious dose and be a strain that is able to colonize humans to cause infection. We propose that future research should focus on the large number of under‐studied species commonly in contact with people and food production and demonstrate shedding of bacterial strains pathogenic to humans into the environment where people may contact them. Finally, studies assessing the duration and intensity of bacterial shedding and survival of bacteria in the environment in bird faeces will help provide crucial missing information necessary to calculate spillover probability. Addressing these essential knowledge gaps will support policy to reduce enteric pathogen spillover to humans and enhance bird conservation efforts that are currently undermined by unsupported fears of pathogen spillover from wild birds.     

Influenza virus transmission is dependent on relative humidity and temperature

Using the guinea pig as a model host, we show that aerosol spread of influenza virus is dependent upon both ambient relative humidity and temperature. Twenty experiments performed at relative humidities from 20% to 80% and 5 degrees C, 20 degrees C, or 30 degrees C indicated that both cold and dry conditions favor transmission. The relationship between transmission via aerosols and relative humidity at 20 degrees C is similar to that previously reported for the stability of influenza viruses (except at high relative humidity, 80%), implying that the effects of humidity act largely at the level of the virus particle. For infected guinea pigs housed at 5 degrees C, the duration of peak shedding was approximately 40 h longer than that of animals housed at 20 degrees C; this increased shedding likely accounts for the enhanced transmission seen at 5 degrees C. To investigate the mechanism permitting prolonged viral growth, expression levels in the upper respiratory tract of several innate immune mediators were determined. Innate responses proved to be comparable between animals housed at 5 degrees C and 20 degrees C, suggesting that cold temperature (5 degrees C) does not impair the innate immune response in this system. Although the seasonal epidemiology of influenza is well characterized, the underlying reasons for predominant wintertime spread are not clear. We provide direct, experimental evidence to support the role of weather conditions in the dynamics of influenza and thereby address a long-standing question fundamental to the understanding of influenza epidemiology and evolution.     

Avian influenza shedding patterns in waterfowl: implications for surveillance, environmental transmission, and disease spread

Despite the recognized importance of fecal/oral transmission of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) via contaminated wetlands, little is known about the length, quantity, or route of AI virus shed by wild waterfowl. We used published laboratory challenge studies to evaluate the length and quantity of low pathogenic (LP) and highly pathogenic (HP) virus shed via oral and cloacal routes by AI-infected ducks and geese, and how these factors might influence AI epidemiology and virus detection. We used survival analysis to estimate the duration of infection (from virus inoculation to the last day virus was shed) and nonlinear models to evaluate temporal patterns in virus shedding. We found higher mean virus titer and longer median infectious period for LPAI-infected ducks (10-11.5 days in oral and cloacal swabs) than HPAI-infected ducks (5 days) and geese (7.5 days). Based on the median bird infectious dose, we found that environmental contamination is two times higher for LPAI- than HPAI-infectious ducks, which implies that susceptible birds may have a higher probability of infection during LPAI than HPAI outbreaks. Less environmental contamination during the course of infection and previously documented shorter environmental persistence for HPAI than LPAI suggest that the environment is a less favorable reservoir for HPAI. The longer infectious period, higher virus titers, and subclinical infections with LPAI viruses favor the spread of these viruses by migratory birds in comparison to HPAI. Given the lack of detection of HPAI viruses through worldwide surveillance, we suggest monitoring for AI should aim at improving our understanding of AI dynamics (in particular, the role of the environment and immunity) using long-term comprehensive live bird, serologic, and environmental sampling at targeted areas. Our findings on LPAI and HPAI shedding patterns over time provide essential information to parameterize environmental transmission and virus spread in predictive epizootiologic models of disease risks.     

Model-Based Evaluation of Highly and Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza Dynamics in Wild Birds

There is growing interest in avian influenza (AI) epidemiology to predict disease risk in wild and domestic birds, and prevent transmission to humans. However, understanding the epidemic dynamics of highly pathogenic (HPAI) viruses remains challenging because they have rarely been detected in wild birds. We used modeling to integrate available scientific information from laboratory and field studies, evaluate AI dynamics in individual hosts and waterfowl populations, and identify key areas for future research. We developed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model and used published laboratory challenge studies to estimate epidemiological parameters (rate of infection, latency period, recovery and mortality rates), considering the importance of age classes, and virus pathogenicity. Infectious contact leads to infection and virus shedding within 1–2 days, followed by relatively slower period for recovery or mortality. We found a shorter infectious period for HPAI than low pathogenic (LP) AI, which may explain that HPAI has been much harder to detect than LPAI during surveillance programs. Our model predicted a rapid LPAI epidemic curve, with a median duration of infection of 50–60 days and no fatalities. In contrast, HPAI dynamics had lower prevalence and higher mortality, especially in young birds. Based on field data from LPAI studies, our model suggests to increase surveillance for HPAI in post-breeding areas, because the presence of immunologically naïve young birds is predicted to cause higher HPAI prevalence and bird losses during this season. Our results indicate a better understanding of the transmission, infection, and immunity-related processes is required to refine predictions of AI risk and spread, improve surveillance for HPAI in wild birds, and develop disease control strategies to reduce potential transmission to domestic birds and/or humans.     

Virulence and pathogenesis

Why do viruses cause disease? As intracellular parasites they grow at the expense of the host, yet many infections are non-virulent. We tend to focus on unusual outcomes of infection that are important to the individual but trivial for host-parasite evolution, for example, paralytic polio or viral cancer. The assumption that the features of disease help onward transmission of the virus is true for, say, rabies, but not for AIDS or neurodegenerative diseases. Moreover, minor host differences can result in major changes in pathogen virulence. Although viral burden relates to disease severity, pathogenesis is not necessarily coupled with transmission dynamics.     

Protection Patterns in Duck and Chicken after Homo- or Hetero-Subtypic Reinfections with H5 and H7 Low Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Viruses: A Comparative Study

Avian influenza viruses are circulating continuously in ducks, inducing a mostly asymptomatic infection, while chickens are accidental hosts highly susceptible to respiratory disease. This discrepancy might be due to a different host response to the virus between these two bird species and in particular to a different susceptibility to reinfection. In an attempt to address this question, we analyzed, in ducks and in chickens, the viral load in infected tissues and the humoral immune response after experimental primary and secondary challenge infections with either homologous or heterologous low pathogenicity avian influenza viruses (LPAIV). Following homologous reinfection, ducks were only partially protected against viral shedding in the lower intestine in conjunction with a moderate antibody response, whereas chickens were totally protected against viral shedding in the upper respiratory airways and developed a stronger antibody response. On the contrary, heterologous reinfection was not followed by a reduced viral excretion in the upper airways of chickens, while ducks were still partially protected from intestinal excretion of the virus, with no correlation to the antibody response. Our comparative study provides a comprehensive demonstration of the variation of viral tropism and control of the host humoral response to LPAIV between two different bird species with different degrees of susceptibility to avian influenza.     

Reconstructing an annual cycle of interaction: natural infection and antibody dynamics to avian influenza along a migratory flyway

Migratory animals may play an important role in connecting disparate ecosystems, including the introduction of various pathogens. The incidence of these pathogens may vary over time and space, such that events along the entire migratory flyway are likely to be important in the interaction between pathogens and their migratory hosts. On this premise, the annual cycle of a naturally occurring host–pathogen system was reconstructed by examining infection with and antibodies to avian influenza virus along the flyway of a long‐distance Arctic migrant, the Svalbard‐breeding pink‐footed goose Anser brachyrhynchus. A highly‐localized transmission period was identified in winter, in contrast to the north–south decline expected from dabbling ducks, indicating the dynamics of infection may differ among host species. In spring, 63% (95% CI: 57.1, 68.9) of adults had detectable antibodies to the nucleoprotein of avian influenza virus, compared to just 15% (95% CI: 8.7, 23.4) of juveniles, suggesting inter‐annual antibody maintenance. Nevertheless, adult seroprevalence declined by approximately 30% from spring to late summer, indicating significant seroreversion in the population. Integrating these findings in an epidemiological model, detectable antibodies to nucleoprotein were estimated to persist for just 343 days (95% CI: 221, 607); considerably shorter than for other wildlife diseases in long‐lived bird species. The investigation of wildlife diseases in migratory populations is an inherently complex task, yet, by integrating disease incidence and seroprevalence along a migratory flyway, our findings suggest that the ecological interactions and life history of the host, as well as the life‐history of the pathogen, can influence the dynamics of infection and host immune response.     

Ecological correlates of risk and incidence of West Nile virus in the United States

West Nile virus, which was recently introduced to North America, is a mosquito-borne pathogen that infects a wide range of vertebrate hosts, including humans. Several species of birds appear to be the primary reservoir hosts, whereas other bird species, as well as other vertebrate species, can be infected but are less competent reservoirs. One hypothesis regarding the transmission dynamics of West Nile virus suggests that high bird diversity reduces West Nile virus transmission because mosquito blood-meals are distributed across a wide range of bird species, many of which have low reservoir competence. One mechanism by which this hypothesis can operate is that high-diversity bird communities might have lower community-competence, defined as the sum of the product of each species’ abundance and its reservoir competence index value. Additional hypotheses posit that West Nile virus transmission will be reduced when either: (1) abundance of mosquito vectors is low; or (2) human population density is low. We assessed these hypotheses at two spatial scales: a regional scale near Saint Louis, MO, and a national scale (continental USA). We found that prevalence of West Nile virus infection in mosquito vectors and in humans increased with decreasing bird diversity and with increasing reservoir competence of the bird community. Our results suggest that conservation of avian diversity might help ameliorate the current West Nile virus epidemic in the USA     

Flying with diverse passengers: greater richness of parasitic nematodes in migratory birds

Environmental changes are simultaneously affecting parasitic diseases and animal migrations, making it important to understand the disease dynamics of migratory species, including their range of infections and investment into defences. There is an urgent need for such knowledge because migratory animals, especially birds, are important for pathogen transmission and also particularly sensitive to environmental changes. Here we compare the nematode species richness and relative immune investment (via relative spleen size) of almost 200 migratory and non‐migratory species within three diverse groups of birds (Anseriformes, Accipitriformes and Turdidae) with worldwide distributions and varied ecology. Our results provide the first large‐scale demonstration that migratory birds face greater challenge from macroparasites as they have significantly dissimilar nematode fauna and higher nematode species richness compared to non‐migratory species. Even though birds with relatively large spleens had more nematode species, there was no difference in relative spleen size between migratory and non‐migratory bird species. The physiological stress of migration can be exacerbated by the potential range of pathologies induced by their richer nematode communities, particularly in combination with environmental perturbations. Altered migration stemming from global changes can also have important consequences for nematode transmission. Synthesis Most studies on parasites of migratory birds versus non‐migratory birds focus upon blood parasites; here we compared the diversity of another important parasite group – nematodes (roundworms) in three orders of birds. We found for any given order, migratory species and species with proportionally larger spleens generally have a wider range of nematodes. It is unclear why migratory species harbour more nematode species. Global climate change is expected to influence both bird migration patterns and infectious diseases, which may increase host susceptibility to parasitism and also introduce diverse nematodes to new areas and potential hosts.     

Directly transmitted viral diseases: modeling the dynamics of transmission

A key hurdle in understanding the spread and control of infectious diseases is to capture appropriately the dynamics of pathogen transmission. As people and goods travel increasingly rapidly around the world, so do pathogens; we must be prepared to understand their spread, in terms of the contact network between hosts, viral life history and within-host dynamics. This will require collaborative work that takes into account viral life history, strategy and evolution, and host genetics, demographics and immunodynamics. Mathematical models are a useful tool for integrating the data and analyses from diverse fields that contribute to our understanding of viral transmission dynamics in heterogeneous host populations.     

禽流感病毒感染鸽的流行病学与致病机理研究进展

禽流感病毒(Avian influenza virus,AIV)不仅严重危害禽类,而且对人类生命健康造成严重威胁。鸽作为留鸟,具有作为AIV从野生鸟类传播至人类中间宿主的潜能。鸽对AIV的易感性以及在病毒传播中的作用却存在争议。通过分析AIV自然感染、人工感染鸽的流行病学以及实验研究数据,同时回顾了禽流感病毒感染鸽的机制,发现随着病毒的进化和时间的推移,鸽群AIV的感染率也在递增;尤其随着近年具有双受体结合特性的高致病性禽流感病毒(highly pathogenic avian influenza virus,HPAIV)clade2.3.4.4分支H5Nx毒株的出现,其感染鸽后排毒量上升以及鸽体间直接接触传播能力增强。为了有效防控AIV的跨种间传播,有必要加强对鸽感染AIV的流行病学监测和传播特性的研究,特别需要密切关注具双受体结合特性的H5Nx和H7N9 HPAIV对鸽易感性的发展趋势。     

An Integrative Eco-Epidemiological Analysis of West Nile Virus Transmission

West Nile disease, caused by the West Nile virus (WNV), is a mosquito-borne zoonotic disease affecting humans and horses that involves wild birds as amplifying hosts. The mechanisms of WNV transmission remain unclear in Europe where the occurrence of outbreaks has dramatically increased in recent years. We used a dataset on the competence, distribution, abundance, diversity and dispersal of wild bird hosts and mosquito vectors to test alternative hypotheses concerning the transmission of WNV in Southern France. We modelled the successive processes of introduction, amplification, dispersal and spillover of WNV to incidental hosts based on host–vector contact rates on various land cover types and over four seasons. We evaluated the relative importance of the mechanisms tested using two independent serological datasets of WNV antibodies collected in wild birds and horses. We found that the same transmission processes (seasonal virus introduction by migratory birds, Culex modestus mosquitoes as amplifying vectors, heterogeneity in avian host competence, absence of ‘dilution effect’) best explain the spatial variations in WNV seroprevalence in the two serological datasets. Our results provide new insights on the pathways of WNV introduction, amplification and spillover and the contribution of bird and mosquito species to WNV transmission in Southern France.     

The Ecology of Influenza A Viruses in Wild Birds in Southern Africa

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) are pathogens of global concern, but there has been little previous research on avian influenza in southern Africa and almost nothing is known about the dynamics of AIVs in the region. We counted, captured and sampled birds regularly at five sites, two in South Africa (Barberspan and Strandfontein) and one in each of Botswana (Lake Ngami), Mozambique (Lake Chuali) and Zimbabwe (Lakes Manyame and Chivero) between March 2007 and May 2009. The South African and Zimbabwean sites were visited every 2 months and the sites in Botswana and Mozambique every 4 months. During each visit we undertook 5-7?days of standardised bird counts followed by 5-10?days of capturing and sampling water-associated birds. We sampled 4,977 birds of 165 different species and completed 2,503 half-hour point counts. We found 125 positive rRT-PCR cases of avian influenza across all sites. Two viruses (H1N8 and H3N8) were isolated and additional H5, H6 and H7 strains were identified. We did not positively identify any highly pathogenic H5N1. Overall viral prevalence (2.51%) was similar to the lower range of European values, considerable spatial and temporal variation occurred in viral prevalence, and there was no detectable influence of the annual influx of Palearctic migrants. Although waterbirds appear to be the primary viral carriers, passerines may link wild birds and poultry. While influenza cycles are probably driven by the bird movements that result from rainfall patterns, the epidemiology of avian influenza in wild birds in the subregion is complex and there appears to be the possibility for viral transmission throughout the year.