Current status and future tendency of lake eutrophication in China

Current trophic status and trend of Chinese freshwater lakes were investigated in this study. The results showed that all lakes studied were commonly undergoing the eutrophication process, water quality decreased and lake’s ecosystem is being declined. Most of the urban lakes are facing serious eutrophication. Many medium-sized lakes are in metrophic or eutrophic status, some local water are even approaching the hypertrophic level. The famous five freshwater lakes in China have entered into eutrophication in the condition of higher nutrient load. Lake Taihu, Hongze and Caohu are already in eutrophic state. Eutrophic lakes are mainly distributed in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and Yungui plateau. Lake eutrophication developed rapidly. Among the 34 lakes studied in 1970’s, most of lakes were in the mesotrophic status, mesotrophic water area accounted for 91.8%. With the nine year of 1978–1987 the area percentage of oligotrophic lakes decreased from 3.2% to 0.53%, and that of eutrophic lakes increased from 5.0% to 55.01%. Recent data showed 57.5% lakes were in eutrophic and hypertrophic status of the 40 surveyed lakes.

Eutrophic trend of Lake Taihu, Chaohu and Xuanwu in the region of the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River was predicated using the ecological stress model. The results showed that in 2008 Lake Taihu, Chaohu and Xuanwu might be of eutrophication, eutrophication and hypertrophication, respectively if no control measurement is taken. Provided the pollution water treatment rate is 60% in 2030, approximately 30 billion ton pollution water would still be discharged directly in the lakes. Therefore, in 2030 the urban lakes in China might be eutrophication or hypertrophication, and most of the medium-sized lakes at the urban-rural fringe might be in eutrophication or hypertrophication. The famous five biggest freshwater lakes in China might be eutrophication if control countermeasures are taken as now.

Lake eutrophication has become a serious environmental problem in China. Based on the domestic and foreign experiences of the eutrophic control technologies, both nutrient pollution control and lake ecological restoration should be carried out and this may be the guidance for the eutrophic control of lakes in China.

     

Current status and future tendency of lake eutrophication in China

Current trophic status and trend of Chinese freshwater lakes were investigated in this study. The results showed that all lakes studied were commonly undergoing the eutrophication process, water quality decreased and lake's ecosystem is being declined. Most of the urban lakes are facing serious eutrophication. Many medium-sized lakes are in metrophic or eutrophic status, some local water are even approaching the hypertrophic level. The famous five freshwater lakes in China have entered into eutrophication in the condition of higher nutrient load. Lake Taihu, Hongze and Caohu are already in eutrophic state. Eutrophic lakes are mainly distributed in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and Yungui plateau. Lake eutrophication developed rapidly. Among the 34 lakes studied in 1970's, most of lakes were in the mesotrophic status,mesotrophic water area accounted for 91.8%. With the nine year of 1978-1987 the area percentage of oligotrophic lakes decreased from 3.2% to 0.53%, and that of eutrophic lakes increased from 5.0% to 55.01%. Recent data showed 57.5% lakes were in eutrophic and hypertrophic status of the 40 surveyed lakes.Eutrophic trend of Lake Taihu, Chaohu and Xuanwu in the region of the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River was predicated using the ecological stress model. The results showed that in 2008 Lake Taihu, Chaohu and Xuanwu might be of eutrophication, eutrophication and hypertrophication, respectively if no control measurement is taken. Provided the pollution water treatment rate is 60% in 2030, approximately 30 billion ton pollution water would still be discharged directly in the lakes. Therefore, in 2030 the urban lakes in China might be eutrophication or hypertrophication, and most of the medium-sized lakes at the urban-rural fringe might be in eutrophication or hypertrophication. The famous five biggest freshwater lakes in China might be eutrophication if control countermeasures are taken as now.Lake eutrophication has become a serious environmental problem in China. Based on the domestic and foreign experiences of the eutrophic control technologies, both nutrient pollution control and lake ecological restoration should be carried out and this may be the guidance for the eutrophic control of lakes in China.     

Current status and future tendency of lake eutrophication in China

Current trophic status and trend of Chinese freshwater lakes were investigated in this study. The results showed that all lakes studied were commonly undergoing the eutrophica-tion process, water quality decreased and lake's ecosystem is being declined. Most of the urban lakes are facing serious eutrophication. Many medium-sized lakes are in metrophic or eutrophic status, some local water are even approaching the hypertrophic level. The famous five freshwater lakes in China have entered into eutrophication in the condition of higher nutrient load. Lake Taihu, Hongze and Caohu are already in eutrophic state. Eutrophic lakes are mainly distributed in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and Yungui plateau. Lake eutrophication developed rapidly. Among the 34 lakes studied in 1970's, most of lakes were in the mesotrophic status, mesotrophic water area accounted for 91.8%. With the nine year of 1978-1987 the area percentage of oligotrophic lakes decreased from 3.2% to 0.53%, and that of eutrophic lakes increased from 5.0% to 55.01%. Recent data showed 57.5% lakes were in eutrophic and hyper trophic status of the 40 surveyed lakes. Eutrophic trend of Lake Taihu, Chaohu and Xuanwu in the region of the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River was predicated using the ecological stress model. The results showed that in 2008 Lake Taihu, Chaohu and Xuanwu might be of eutrophication, eutrophication and hypertrophication, respectively if no control measurement is taken. Provided the pollution water treatment rate is 60% in 2030, approximately 30 billion ton pollution water would still be discharged directly in the lakes. Therefore, in 2030 the urban lakes in China might be eutrophication or hypertrophication, and most of the medium-sized lakes at the urban-rural fringe might be in eutrophication or hypertrophication. The famous five biggest freshwater lakes in China might be eutrophication if control countermeasures are taken as now. Lake eutrophication has become a serious environmental problem in China. Based on the domestic and foreign experiences of the eutrophic control technologies, both nutrient pollution control and lake ecological restoration should be carried out and this may be the guidance for the eutrophic control of lakes in China.     

Combining limnological and palaeolimnological data to disentangle the effects of nutrient pollution and climate change on lake ecosystems: problems and potential

1. As long‐term observational lake records continue to lengthen, the historical overlap with lake sediment records grows, providing increasing opportunities for placing the contemporary ecological status of lakes in a temporal perspective. 2. Comparisons between long‐term data sets and sediment records, however, require lake sediments to be accurately dated and for sediment accumulation rates to be sufficiently rapid to allow precise matching with observational data. 3. The critical role of the sediment record in this context is its value in tracking the changing impact of human activity on a lake from a pre‐disturbance reference through to the present day. 4. Here, we use data from a range of lakes across Europe presented as case studies in this Special Section. The seven sites considered all possess both long‐term observational records and high‐quality sediment records. Our objective is to assess whether recent climate change is having an impact on their trophic status and in particular whether that impact can be disentangled from the changes associated with nutrient pollution. 5. The palaeo‐data show clear evidence for the beginning of nutrient pollution varying from the mid‐nineteenth century at Loch Leven to the early and middle twentieth century at other sites. The monitoring data show different degrees of recovery when judged against the palaeo‐reference. 6. The reason for limited recovery is attributed to continuing high nutrient concentrations related to an increase in diffuse nutrient loading or to internal P recycling, but there is some evidence that climate change may be playing a role in offsetting recovery at some sites. If this is the case, then lake ecosystems suffering from eutrophication may not necessarily return to their pre‐eutrophication reference status despite the measures that have been taken to reduce external nutrient loading. 7. The extent to which future warming might further limit such recovery can be evaluated only by continued monitoring combined with the use of palaeo‐records that set the pre‐eutrophication reference.     

水华爆发的突变模型——以巢湖为例

面对湖泊水库富营养化的严峻形势,水华防治是当务之急,而根据富营养化现状对水华进行准确的判定和预报更是重中之重.从水生态系统的角度出发,综合考虑TP、T、Chla和DO等4个对巢湖富营养化乃至水华影响最为突出的因子,构建了巢湖水华突变的尖点模型,通过模型来模拟巢湖富营养化引发水华的情势.在对巢湖2000～2003年时间序列的监测数据进行数据拟合的基础上,发现南淝河入湖区断面处逐月TP、T、Chla和DO数据的演变规律符合突变理论的尖点模型特征.经检验,模型的相对误差控制在10%左右,具有较好的拟合精度.根据模型的突变判别,巢湖的水生态系统2003年7月在南淝河入湖区断面处发生了突变,这一模拟结论与该断面2003年8月爆发水华的实际情况相一致.研究表明,水华突变模型的建立,准确地反映了巢湖富营养化引发水华的实际情况,系统地勾勒出富营养化状态下水生态系统各要素间的动态响应模式,揭示了水华爆发的突变机理.通过水华突变模型的构建,不仅能够对巢湖水华的发生进行判断和预报,还可以对各项防治措施的实施效果进行预测和模拟,进而为综合整治方案的优化和统筹提供科学依据.水华的爆发是多诱因的综合作用结果,是营养物质长期累积、由量变到质变的演化过程,作为目前唯一的一种研究由渐变引起突变的系统理论,突变理论满足水华研究的数理要求,为水华现象的数值模拟提供了可行的解决方案.     

Combining multivariate statistical techniques and random forests model to assess and diagnose the trophic status of Poyang Lake in China

Floodplain lakes are valuable to humans because of their various functions. An emerging public concern on lake eutrophication has heightened the need to assess and predict the trophic status in floodplain lakes, particularly for those with high spatial heterogeneity. In this study, combined multivariate statistical techniques and random forests model were used to characterize the water quality and trophic status of Poyang Lake. By classifying and characterizing seasonal water samples comprising 11 water quality parameters collected from 13 sampling sites in Poyang Lake between 2008 and 2014, the dataset was divided into the central and northern lake groups, which corresponded to lentic and lotic regions in Poyang Lake, respectively. The spatial water quality variations and underlying patterns were investigated by performing discriminant analysis and principal component analysis (PCA). Lastly, random forests (RF) were used to predict the chlorophyll a (Chl-a) variations of the central and northern lakes. The PCA results indicated that the water quality of the central and northern areas of the lake was controlled by different environmental variables and underlying pollutant sources. The RF model outperformed the artificial neural network and linear regression and was robust with strong predictive capabilities. It was determined that the most important predictors of the Chl-a variations in the northern lake were water temperature (T) and water level, whereas transparency, T, and water level were the most efficient predictors in the central lake. The RF model can also be applied to trophic prediction in other large lakes with considerable spatial variations. This study will have implications on water quality management and eutrophication prevention in floodplain lakes with high spatial heterogeneity.     

考虑气候因子变化的湖泊富营养化模型研究进展

气候因子是影响湖泊营养状态和进程的主要自然因素.在全球气候变化的趋势下,将气候因子的变化纳入湖泊富营养化模型中,可以为湖泊演化趋势分析和环境管理决策提供技术支持.本文首先分析了气温、降水、光照和大气等气候因子对湖泊富营养化的影响,进而对考虑气候因子变化的数理统计与分析模型、生态动力学模型、系统生态学模型及智能算法等的研究进行了综述.在此基础上,对完善气候因子变化下湖泊营养状态变化的模型研究进行了展望：1)加强气候因子作用于湖泊营养状态的机理研究;2)选择合适的气候模拟模型,合理设置气候变化情景,在不同模型嵌套时保证时空尺度的匹配;3)以水动力学模型为基础,耦合生态模型及智能算法等,并结合良好的气候模拟模型,以精确模拟预测气候变化下湖泊富营养化的演化过程和趋势.     

中国典型湖泊富营养化现状与区域性差异分析

为全面科学地综合评估全国富营养化现状, 以全国五大湖区22个典型湖泊为研究对象, 科学评估了其富营养化状态, 分析了全国湖泊富营养化状态的区域性差异, 并探讨了富营养化状态与总磷的定量关系。结果表明, 2010—2011年, 59.1%的调研湖泊处于不同程度的富营养化状态, 其中云贵湖区的富营养化程度最为严重, 蒙新湖区的富营养化呈两极分化状态, 东北山地-平原湖区与东部湖区的湖泊基本均处于中营养-轻度富营养之间, 青藏高原湖区的富营养化程度最低。通过分析日照数、无霜期、气温、水深、海拔、降雨与湖泊营养状态的关系, 揭示了湖泊所处的地理位置是影响湖泊富营养化的基本因素, 具有区域性的分布规律。综合分析结果表明, 全国范围内湖泊中叶绿素a与总磷浓度存在显著相关性, 其中东部平原湖区、东北平原-山地湖区、青藏高原湖区和云贵高原湖区的叶绿素a与总磷浓度符合三次曲线方程, 蒙新湖区的叶绿素a与总磷浓度符合S型曲线方程; 东部平原湖区、东北平原-山地湖区、青藏高原湖区叶绿素浓度随着总磷浓度的增加, 首先出现1个极小值点, 然后出现1个极大值点, 其中3个湖区极小值点对应的总磷浓度分别为: 0.054、0.089和0.072 mg/L, 可为我国对应湖区的湖泊富营养化控制指标提供借鉴。     

Ecological sensitivity of marl lakes to nutrient enrichment: evidence from Hawes Water,UK

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A Catastrophe Model for Water Bloom Prediction: A Case Study of China's Lake Chaohu

Using a case study of Lake Chaohu, the fifth largest lake in China, we constructed a cusp model for water bloom prediction that used TP (total phosphorus), T (temperature), Chla (chlorophyll-a), and DO (dissolved oxygen). These four parameters were assumed to be the most important factors in eutrophication and water bloom of the lake. The model was found to be accurate, because its relative error was around 10%. What is more convincing, according to the catastrophe discriminant of the cusp model, it could be judged that a discontinuous jump of the aquatic ecosystem occurred in July 2004, in Lake Chaohu. This conclusion is consistent with the fact that water blooms arose in August 2004. The cusp model also showed satisfactory precision when applied to forecast the eutrophication trend and prediction of water bloom in Lake Chaohu in 2005. The case study found that water bloom brought on by eutrophication can be fit and predicted by a catastrophe model. We suggest that catastrophe models would be a constructive approach to forecast and judge the outbreak of water bloom in lakes. In addition, by constructing and studying such catastrophe models, lake managers would be able to simulate the effects of different protection and mitigation projects and enrich the scientific basis for the optimization of these projects as well.     

Paleolimnologic Evidence for Recent Eutrophication in the Valley of the Great Lakes (Mongolia)

Climate warming and major land-use changes have profoundly affected the Mongolian landscape in the past several decades. Previous studies have recognized the impacts of a warmer, more arid climate and Mongolia’s 1991 transition from a command to a market economy on terrestrial ecosystems, including impaired sustainability of subsistence herding and threats to wild animals. In this study, we examined the combined effects of changing climate and herding practices on lake eutrophication in Western Mongolia. We sampled 65 lakes for modern nutrients and found the majority of lakes were eutrophic to hyper-eutrophic. Sediment cores were taken from five of the lakes to compare current lake status to paleolimnologial measures of lake eutrophication over the past 100–2000 years, including changes in diatom assemblages, diatom-inferred total phosphorus, biogenic silica, organic matter, and sediment accumulation rates. Variance partitioning analysis showed that recent shifts in diatom assemblages were related to changes in both climate and herding practices. The results presented here demonstrate a need for further study and long-term monitoring of water quality in Mongolia to understand the complicated interactions of climate and land use on aquatic resources and to preserve water quality in this remote and ecologically important region.     

Using aquatic macrophyte community indices to define the ecological status of European lakes

Defining the overall ecological status of lakes according to the Water Framework Directive (WFD) is to be partially based on the species composition of the aquatic macrophyte community. We tested three assessment methods to define the ecological status of the macrophyte community in response to a eutrophication pressure as reflected by total phosphorus concentrations in lake water. An absolute species richness, a trophic index (TI) and a lake trophic ranking (LTR) method were tested at Europe-wide, regional and national scales as well as by alkalinity category, using data from 1,147 lakes from 12 European states. Total phosphorus data were used to represent the trophic status of individual samples and were plotted against the calculated TI and LTR values. Additionally, the LTR method was tested in some individual lakes with a relatively long time series of monitoring data. The TI correlated well with total P in the Northern European lake types, whereas the relationship in the Central European lake types was less clear. The relationship between total P and light extinction is often very good in the Northern European lake types compared to the Central European lake types. This can be one of the reasons for a better agreement between the indices and eutrophication pressure in the Northern European lake types. The response of individual lakes to changes in the abiotic environment was sometimes represented incorrectly by the indices used, which is a cause of concern for the use of single indices in status assessments in practice.     

Copepods as environmental indicator in lakes: special focus on changes in the proportion of calanoids along nutrient and pH gradients

Copepods are important contributors to the zooplankton community in lakes. Being “sandwiched” between predators and resources, they are sensitive to changes in the environment. It has been proposed that the proportion of calanoids of total copepod abundance or biomass could be a valuable indicator of eutrophication. We investigated relationships between environmental factors and the abundance, biomass and size of calanoid and cyclopoid copepods as well as their proportions in summer in 68 Danish freshwater lakes (587 lake years) with contrasting nutrient levels and pH. When lake pH was?<?6.0, mean lake depth and trophic state were the most important factors and calanoids completely dominated the copepod community. In shallow lakes with a mean depth?<?2.5 m and with pH?>?6.0, the proportion of calanoids in terms of biomass decreased substantially with increasing phosphorus and chlorophyll a concentrations but stayed around 50% at?>?2.5 m depth irrespective of nutrient level. Time series of the lakes, recovering from eutrophication, confirmed this multi-lake pattern although the trajectory varied from lake to lake. We conclude that the proportion of calanoids in terms of biomass might be a valuable indicator of trophic state in shallow but not deep lakes and only when pH?>?6.

     

Ecological threshold responses in European lakes and their applicability for the Water Framework Directive (WFD) implementation: synthesis of lakes results from the REBECCA project

The objective of this synthesis is to present the key messages and draw the main conclusions from the work on lakes in the REBECCA project, pointing out their links to theoretical ecology and their applicability for the WFD implementation. Type-specific results were obtained from analyses of large pan-European datasets for phytoplankton, macrophytes, macroinvertebrates and fish, and indicators and relationships showing the impact of eutrophication or acidification on these biological elements were constructed. The thresholds identified in many of the response curves are well suited for setting ecological status class boundaries and can be applied in the intercalibration of classification systems. Good indicators for phytoplankton (chrysophytes, cyanobacteria) and macrophytes (isoetids and charaphytes) responses to eutrophication were identified, and the level of eutrophication pressure needed to reach the thresholds for these indicators was quantified. Several existing metrics developed for macrophytes had low comparability and need further harmonisation to be useful for intercalibration of classification systems. For macroinvertebrates, a number of metrics developed for rivers turned out to be less useful to describe lake responses to eutrophication and acidification, whereas other species based indicators were more promising. All the biological elements showed different responses in different lake types according to alkalinity and humic substances, and also partly according to depth. Better harmonisation of monitoring methods is needed to achieve better precision in the dose–response curves. Future research should include impacts of hydromorphological pressures and climate change, as well as predictions of timelags involved in responses to reduction of pressures.     

Analyzing the mutual feedbacks between lake pollution and human behaviour in a mathematical social-ecological model

Does the adoption of environment-oriented actions by individuals necessarily improve the state of an ecosystem in the most effective way? We address this question with the example of eutrophication in shallow lakes. When exposed to fertilizers, such lakes can undergo a critical transition called eutrophication, resulting in a loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services. We couple a generic model of eutrophication with a best-response model of human behaviour, where agents can choose to pollute the lake at a high level (defection) or at a low level (cooperation). It is known that feedbacks between the interacting lake pollution and human behaviour can give rise to complex dynamics with multiple stable states and oscillations. Here, we analyze the impact of all model parameters on the shape of the nullclines. S-shaped nullclines are a condition for complex dynamics to occur. Moreover, we find that agents decreasing their pollution discharge into the lake is not necessarily the most effective way to reduce the pollution level in the lake. This is due to coexisting counterintuitive stable equilibria where the lake is in a clear state despite a high level of pollution discharge. We analyze the complex dynamics of the system and describe in detail Hopf, saddle-node, homoclinic and Bogdanov-Takens bifurcations. The complex dynamics with potential multistability and counterintuitive equilibria suggests that generic management recommendations holding for every level of pollution and of cooperation are impossible. Apart from the direct perturbation of an ecological variable, we identify three ways a management strategy can influence the social-ecological system: it can change the location, the resilience and the existence of stable equilibria.     

Increased nutrient loading and rapid changes in phytoplankton expected with climate change in stratified South European lakes: sensitivity of lakes with different trophic state and catchment properties

We hypothesised that increasing winter affluence and summer temperatures, anticipated in southern Europe with climate change, will deteriorate the ecological status of lakes, especially in those with shorter retention time. We tested these hypotheses analysing weekly phytoplankton and chemistry data collected over 2 years of contrasting weather from two adjacent stratified lakes in North Italy, differing from each other by trophic state and water retention time. Dissolved oxygen concentrations were higher in colder hypolimnia of both lakes in the second year following the cold winter, despite the second summer was warmer and the lakes more strongly stratified. Higher loading during the rainy winter and spring increased nutrient (N, P, Si) concentrations, and a phytoplankton based trophic state index, whilst the N/P ratio decreased in both lakes. The weakened Si limitation in the second year enabled an increase of diatom biovolumes in spring in both lakes. Chlorophyll a concentration increased in the oligo-mesotrophic lake, but dropped markedly in the eutrophic lake where the series of commonly occurring cyanobacteria blooms was interrupted. The projected increase of winter precipitation in southern Europe is likely to increase the nutrient loadings to lakes and contribute to their eutrophication. The impact is proportional to the runoff/in-lake concentration ratio of nutrients rather than to the retention time, and is more pronounced in lakes with lower trophy.     

Chemical and Microbiological Processes as Regulators of the Exchange of Substances between Sediments and Water in Shallow Eutrophic Lakes

It is generally believed that excessive P release from lake sediments, i. e. internal P load, is only a problem in deep lakes with stagnant anaerobic bottom waters. However, substantial amounts of P can also be released from sediments in shallow, well-mixed lakes. The dynamics and magnitude of P release from sediments in these types of lakes are affected primarily by physical factors, such as seasonal variations in water temperature and year-to-year differences in water renewal. These factors, in turn, induce chemical and microbiological processes which regulate the exchange of substances between sediments and water. The fractional distribution of sedimentary P and the chelating capacity of the water are also important factors that can provide insights to the processes involved and their quantitative impact on the P status in shallow, eutrophic lakes.     

A Model to Predict Lake Water Colour

This study is an attempt to quantitatively determine variables of significance for predicting colour in small glacial lakes. Lake colour is an important variable in many lake ecological contexts. The data emanate from two extensive data-sets from Sweden, one of which concerns 1456 lakes, and the other 91 more well-suited lakes. Four year average values of lake colour were compared to catchment and morphometric parameters to help identify the processes which influence variability in colour between lakes. Various hypotheses concerning the factors regulating colour in lakes were formulated and tested. Various statistical tests were used to separate random influences from causal influences. Those “map parameters” with the most significant influence on colour were the theoretical lake water retention time, the percent of rocks, lakes and mires of the drainage area, the ratio between lake area and drainage area and the lake mean depth. Each model parameter provides only a limited explanation (statistical) of the variability in colour between lakes. The predictability of colour by these models can not be markedly improved by accounting for the distribution of the characteristics in the drainage area. The stability of the final model, which gives an r²-value of 0.74, has been tested with positive results. The model allows lake colour to be estimated from knowledge of “geological” characteristics of the lake and its drainage area. The variability between lakes from other factors, such as temperature, precipitation and/or contamination of acidifying substances and nutrients, may then be quantitatively differentiated from the impact of these “geological” factors.     

基于生态水文学原理的湖泊最小生态需水量计算

近几十年来,由于人类活动的加剧以及全球气候的变化,湖泊普遍出现了萎缩、水位下降、水量锐减、湖水盐化、水质污染、富营养化、甚至干涸消亡等状况。确保湖泊生态系统必需的最小水量是解决可能出现的湖泊严重水资源和生态系统危机的区域问题之一。从生态水文学原理出发,对湖泊最小生态需水量的概念进行了探讨,并提出了计算最小生态需水量的3种方法:1曲线相关法;2功能法;3最低生态水位法。在最低生态水位法中,其方法有最低年平均水位法和年保证率设定法。一旦湖泊最小生态需水量得以确定,将为水资源管理部门的水资源合理配置和湖泊管理提供综合性、权威性及可操作性决策依据,为退化湖泊生态系统的恢复与重建提供科学基础。