Improving genetic risk prediction by leveraging pleiotropy

An important task of human genetics studies is to predict accurately disease risks in individuals based on genetic markers, which allows for identifying individuals at high disease risks, and facilitating their disease treatment and prevention. Although hundreds of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have been conducted on many complex human traits in recent years, there has been only limited success in translating these GWAS data into clinically useful risk prediction models. The predictive capability of GWAS data is largely bottlenecked by the available training sample size due to the presence of numerous variants carrying only small to modest effects. Recent studies have shown that different human traits may share common genetic bases. Therefore, an attractive strategy to increase the training sample size and hence improve the prediction accuracy is to integrate data from genetically correlated phenotypes. Yet, the utility of genetic correlation in risk prediction has not been explored in the literature. In this paper, we analyzed GWAS data for bipolar and related disorders and schizophrenia with a bivariate ridge regression method, and found that jointly predicting the two phenotypes could substantially increase prediction accuracy as measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. We also found similar prediction accuracy improvements when we jointly analyzed GWAS data for Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis. The empirical observations were substantiated through our comprehensive simulation studies, suggesting that a gain in prediction accuracy can be obtained by combining phenotypes with relatively high genetic correlations. Through both real data and simulation studies, we demonstrated pleiotropy can be leveraged as a valuable asset that opens up a new opportunity to improve genetic risk prediction in the future.     

Relevance of genetic relationship in GWAS and genomic prediction

The objective of this study was to analyze the relevance of relationship information on the identification of low heritability quantitative trait loci (QTLs) from a genome-wide association study (GWAS) and on the genomic prediction of complex traits in human, animal and cross-pollinating populations. The simulation-based data sets included 50 samples of 1000 individuals of seven populations derived from a common population with linkage disequilibrium. The populations had non-inbred and inbred progeny structure (50 to 200) with varying number of members (5 to 20). The individuals were genotyped for 10,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and phenotyped for a quantitative trait controlled by 10 QTLs and 90 minor genes showing dominance. The SNP density was 0.1 cM and the narrow sense heritability was 25%. The QTL heritabilities ranged from 1.1 to 2.9%. We applied mixed model approaches for both GWAS and genomic prediction using pedigree-based and genomic relationship matrices. For GWAS, the observed false discovery rate was kept below the significance level of 5%, the power of detection for the low heritability QTLs ranged from 14 to 50%, and the average bias between significant SNPs and a QTL ranged from less than 0.01 to 0.23 cM. The QTL detection power was consistently higher using genomic relationship matrix. Regardless of population and training set size, genomic prediction provided higher prediction accuracy of complex trait when compared to pedigree-based prediction. The accuracy of genomic prediction when there is relatedness between individuals in the training set and the reference population is much higher than the value for unrelated individuals.     

Cross-trait prediction accuracy of summary statistics in genome-wide association studies

In the era of big data, univariate models have widely been used as a workhorse tool for quickly producing marginal estimators; and this is true even when in a high-dimensional dense setting, in which many features are “true,” but weak signals. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) epitomize this type of setting. Although the GWAS marginal estimator is popular, it has long been criticized for ignoring the correlation structure of genetic variants (i.e., the linkage disequilibrium [LD] pattern). In this paper, we study the effects of LD pattern on the GWAS marginal estimator and investigate whether or not additionally accounting for the LD can improve the prediction accuracy of complex traits. We consider a general high-dimensional dense setting for GWAS and study a class of ridge-type estimators, including the popular marginal estimator and the best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) estimator as two special cases. We show that the performance of GWAS marginal estimator depends on the LD pattern through the first three moments of its eigenvalue distribution. Furthermore, we uncover that the relative performance of GWAS marginal and BLUP estimators highly depends on the ratio of GWAS sample size over the number of genetic variants. Particularly, our finding reveals that the marginal estimator can easily become near-optimal within this class when the sample size is relatively small, even though it ignores the LD pattern. On the other hand, BLUP estimator has substantially better performance than the marginal estimator as the sample size increases toward the number of genetic variants, which is typically in millions. Therefore, adjusting for the LD (such as in the BLUP) is most needed when GWAS sample size is large. We illustrate the importance of our results by using the simulated data and real GWAS.     

Joint prediction of multiple quantitative traits using a Bayesian multivariate antedependence model

Predicting organismal phenotypes from genotype data is important for preventive and personalized medicine as well as plant and animal breeding. Although genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for complex traits have discovered a large number of trait- and disease-associated variants, phenotype prediction based on associated variants is usually in low accuracy even for a high-heritability trait because these variants can typically account for a limited fraction of total genetic variance. In comparison with GWAS, the whole-genome prediction (WGP) methods can increase prediction accuracy by making use of a huge number of variants simultaneously. Among various statistical methods for WGP, multiple-trait model and antedependence model show their respective advantages. To take advantage of both strategies within a unified framework, we proposed a novel multivariate antedependence-based method for joint prediction of multiple quantitative traits using a Bayesian algorithm via modeling a linear relationship of effect vector between each pair of adjacent markers. Through both simulation and real-data analyses, our studies demonstrated that the proposed antedependence-based multiple-trait WGP method is more accurate and robust than corresponding traditional counterparts (Bayes A and multi-trait Bayes A) under various scenarios. Our method can be readily extended to deal with missing phenotypes and resequence data with rare variants, offering a feasible way to jointly predict phenotypes for multiple complex traits in human genetic epidemiology as well as plant and livestock breeding.     

Genome-Wide Prediction Methods in Highly Diverse and Heterozygous Species: Proof-of-Concept through Simulation in Grapevine

Nowadays, genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and genomic selection (GS) methods which use genome-wide marker data for phenotype prediction are of much potential interest in plant breeding. However, to our knowledge, no studies have been performed yet on the predictive ability of these methods for structured traits when using training populations with high levels of genetic diversity. Such an example of a highly heterozygous, perennial species is grapevine. The present study compares the accuracy of models based on GWAS or GS alone, or in combination, for predicting simple or complex traits, linked or not with population structure. In order to explore the relevance of these methods in this context, we performed simulations using approx 90,000 SNPs on a population of 3,000 individuals structured into three groups and corresponding to published diversity grapevine data. To estimate the parameters of the prediction models, we defined four training populations of 1,000 individuals, corresponding to these three groups and a core collection. Finally, to estimate the accuracy of the models, we also simulated four breeding populations of 200 individuals. Although prediction accuracy was low when breeding populations were too distant from the training populations, high accuracy levels were obtained using the sole core-collection as training population. The highest prediction accuracy was obtained (up to 0.9) using the combined GWAS-GS model. We thus recommend using the combined prediction model and a core-collection as training population for grapevine breeding or for other important economic crops with the same characteristics.     

Using Genetic Prediction from Known Complex Disease Loci to Guide the Design of Next-Generation Sequencing Experiments

A central focus of complex disease genetics after genome-wide association studies (GWAS) is to identify low frequency and rare risk variants, which may account for an important fraction of disease heritability unexplained by GWAS. A profusion of studies using next-generation sequencing are seeking such risk alleles. We describe how already-known complex trait loci (largely from GWAS) can be used to guide the design of these new studies by selecting cases, controls, or families who are most likely to harbor undiscovered risk alleles. We show that genetic risk prediction can select unrelated cases from large cohorts who are enriched for unknown risk factors, or multiply-affected families that are more likely to harbor high-penetrance risk alleles. We derive the frequency of an undiscovered risk allele in selected cases and controls, and show how this relates to the variance explained by the risk score, the disease prevalence and the population frequency of the risk allele. We also describe a new method for informing the design of sequencing studies using genetic risk prediction in large partially-genotyped families using an extension of the Inside-Outside algorithm for inference on trees. We explore several study design scenarios using both simulated and real data, and show that in many cases genetic risk prediction can provide significant increases in power to detect low-frequency and rare risk alleles. The same approach can also be used to aid discovery of non-genetic risk factors, suggesting possible future utility of genetic risk prediction in conventional epidemiology. Software implementing the methods in this paper is available in the R package Mangrove.     

Optimising the identification of causal variants across varying genetic architectures in crops

Association studies use statistical links between genetic markers and the phenotype variation across many individuals to identify genes controlling variation in the target phenotype. However, this approach, particularly conducted on a genome‐wide scale (GWAS), has limited power to identify the genes responsible for variation in traits controlled by complex genetic architectures. In this study, we employ real‐world genotype datasets from four crop species with distinct minor allele frequency distributions, population structures and linkage disequilibrium patterns. We demonstrate that different GWAS statistical approaches provide favourable trade‐offs between power and accuracy for traits controlled by different types of genetic architectures. FarmCPU provides the most favourable outcomes for moderately complex traits while a Bayesian approach adopted from genomic prediction provides the most favourable outcomes for extremely complex traits. We assert that by estimating the complexity of genetic architectures for target traits and selecting an appropriate statistical approach for the degree of complexity detected, researchers can substantially improve the ability to dissect the genetic factors controlling complex traits such as flowering time, plant height and yield component.     

Functional genomics complements quantitative genetics in identifying disease-gene associations

An ultimate goal of genetic research is to understand the connection between genotype and phenotype in order to improve the diagnosis and treatment of diseases. The quantitative genetics field has developed a suite of statistical methods to associate genetic loci with diseases and phenotypes, including quantitative trait loci (QTL) linkage mapping and genome-wide association studies (GWAS). However, each of these approaches have technical and biological shortcomings. For example, the amount of heritable variation explained by GWAS is often surprisingly small and the resolution of many QTL linkage mapping studies is poor. The predictive power and interpretation of QTL and GWAS results are consequently limited. In this study, we propose a complementary approach to quantitative genetics by interrogating the vast amount of high-throughput genomic data in model organisms to functionally associate genes with phenotypes and diseases. Our algorithm combines the genome-wide functional relationship network for the laboratory mouse and a state-of-the-art machine learning method. We demonstrate the superior accuracy of this algorithm through predicting genes associated with each of 1157 diverse phenotype ontology terms. Comparison between our prediction results and a meta-analysis of quantitative genetic studies reveals both overlapping candidates and distinct, accurate predictions uniquely identified by our approach. Focusing on bone mineral density (BMD), a phenotype related to osteoporotic fracture, we experimentally validated two of our novel predictions (not observed in any previous GWAS/QTL studies) and found significant bone density defects for both Timp2 and Abcg8 deficient mice. Our results suggest that the integration of functional genomics data into networks, which itself is informative of protein function and interactions, can successfully be utilized as a complementary approach to quantitative genetics to predict disease risks. All supplementary material is available at http://cbfg.jax.org/phenotype.     

Candidate Causal Regulatory Effects by Integration of Expression QTLs with Complex Trait Genetic Associations

The recent success of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) is now followed by the challenge to determine how the reported susceptibility variants mediate complex traits and diseases. Expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) have been implicated in disease associations through overlaps between eQTLs and GWAS signals. However, the abundance of eQTLs and the strong correlation structure (LD) in the genome make it likely that some of these overlaps are coincidental and not driven by the same functional variants. In the present study, we propose an empirical methodology, which we call Regulatory Trait Concordance (RTC) that accounts for local LD structure and integrates eQTLs and GWAS results in order to reveal the subset of association signals that are due to cis eQTLs. We simulate genomic regions of various LD patterns with both a single or two causal variants and show that our score outperforms SNP correlation metrics, be they statistical (r²) or historical (D''). Following the observation of a significant abundance of regulatory signals among currently published GWAS loci, we apply our method with the goal to prioritize relevant genes for each of the respective complex traits. We detect several potential disease-causing regulatory effects, with a strong enrichment for immunity-related conditions, consistent with the nature of the cell line tested (LCLs). Furthermore, we present an extension of the method in trans, where interrogating the whole genome for downstream effects of the disease variant can be informative regarding its unknown primary biological effect. We conclude that integrating cellular phenotype associations with organismal complex traits will facilitate the biological interpretation of the genetic effects on these traits.     

A Comparison of Multivariate Genome-Wide Association Methods

Joint association analysis of multiple traits in a genome-wide association study (GWAS), i.e. a multivariate GWAS, offers several advantages over analyzing each trait in a separate GWAS. In this study we directly compared a number of multivariate GWAS methods using simulated data. We focused on six methods that are implemented in the software packages PLINK, SNPTEST, MultiPhen, BIMBAM, PCHAT and TATES, and also compared them to standard univariate GWAS, analysis of the first principal component of the traits, and meta-analysis of univariate results. We simulated data (N = 1000) for three quantitative traits and one bi-allelic quantitative trait locus (QTL), and varied the number of traits associated with the QTL (explained variance 0.1%), minor allele frequency of the QTL, residual correlation between the traits, and the sign of the correlation induced by the QTL relative to the residual correlation. We compared the power of the methods using empirically fixed significance thresholds (α = 0.05). Our results showed that the multivariate methods implemented in PLINK, SNPTEST, MultiPhen and BIMBAM performed best for the majority of the tested scenarios, with a notable increase in power for scenarios with an opposite sign of genetic and residual correlation. All multivariate analyses resulted in a higher power than univariate analyses, even when only one of the traits was associated with the QTL. Hence, use of multivariate GWAS methods can be recommended, even when genetic correlations between traits are weak.     

Current opportunities and challenges: genome-wide association studies on pigmentation and skin cancer

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have become a widely used approach for genetic association studies of various human traits. A few GWAS have been conducted with the goal of identifying novel loci for pigmentation traits, melanoma, and non-melanoma skin cancer. Nevertheless, the phenotype variation explained by the genetic markers identified so far is limited. In this review, we discuss the GWAS study design and its application in pigmentation and skin cancer research. Furthermore, we summarize recent developments in post-GWAS activities such as meta-analysis, pathway analysis, and risk prediction.     

Estimating the total number of susceptibility variants underlying complex diseases from genome-wide association studies

Recently genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified numerous susceptibility variants for complex diseases. In this study we proposed several approaches to estimate the total number of variants underlying these diseases. We assume that the variance explained by genetic markers (Vg) follow an exponential distribution, which is justified by previous studies on theories of adaptation. Our aim is to fit the observed distribution of Vg from GWAS to its theoretical distribution. The number of variants is obtained by the heritability divided by the estimated mean of the exponential distribution. In practice, due to limited sample sizes, there is insufficient power to detect variants with small effects. Therefore the power was taken into account in fitting. Besides considering the most significant variants, we also tried to relax the significance threshold, allowing more markers to be fitted. The effects of false positive variants were removed by considering the local false discovery rates. In addition, we developed an alternative approach by directly fitting the z-statistics from GWAS to its theoretical distribution. In all cases, the "winner's curse" effect was corrected analytically. Confidence intervals were also derived. Simulations were performed to compare and verify the performance of different estimators (which incorporates various means of winner's curse correction) and the coverage of the proposed analytic confidence intervals. Our methodology only requires summary statistics and is able to handle both binary and continuous traits. Finally we applied the methods to a few real disease examples (lipid traits, type 2 diabetes and Crohn's disease) and estimated that hundreds to nearly a thousand variants underlie these traits.     

Predicting unobserved phenotypes for complex traits from whole-genome SNP data

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for quantitative traits and disease in humans and other species have shown that there are many loci that contribute to the observed resemblance between relatives. GWAS to date have mostly focussed on discovery of genes or regulatory regions habouring causative polymorphisms, using single SNP analyses and setting stringent type-I error rates. Genome-wide marker data can also be used to predict genetic values and therefore predict phenotypes. Here, we propose a Bayesian method that utilises all marker data simultaneously to predict phenotypes. We apply the method to three traits: coat colour, %CD8 cells, and mean cell haemoglobin, measured in a heterogeneous stock mouse population. We find that a model that contains both additive and dominance effects, estimated from genome-wide marker data, is successful in predicting unobserved phenotypes and is significantly better than a prediction based upon the phenotypes of close relatives. Correlations between predicted and actual phenotypes were in the range of 0.4 to 0.9 when half of the number of families was used to estimate effects and the other half for prediction. Posterior probabilities of SNPs being associated with coat colour were high for regions that are known to contain loci for this trait. The prediction of phenotypes using large samples, high-density SNP data, and appropriate statistical methodology is feasible and can be applied in human medicine, forensics, or artificial selection programs.     

Genome-wide association mapping of agronomic and morphologic traits in highly structured populations of barley cultivars

Genome-wide association study (GWAS) has become an obvious general approach for studying traits of agricultural importance in higher plants, especially crops. Here, we present a GWAS of 32 morphologic and 10 agronomic traits in a collection of 615 barley cultivars genotyped by genome-wide polymorphisms from a recently developed barley oligonucleotide pool assay. Strong population structure effect related to mixed sampling based on seasonal growth habit and ear row number is present in this barley collection. Comparison of seven statistical approaches in a genome-wide scan for significant associations with or without correction for confounding by population structure, revealed that in reducing false positive rates while maintaining statistical power, a mixed linear model solution outperforms genomic control, structured association, stepwise regression control and principal components adjustment. The present study reports significant associations for sixteen morphologic and nine agronomic traits and demonstrates the power and feasibility of applying GWAS to explore complex traits in highly structured plant samples.     

生物信息学分析方法I: 全基因组关联分析概述

全基因组关联分析(GWAS)是动植物复杂性状相关基因定位的常用手段。高通量基因分型技术的应用极大地推动了GWAS的发展。在植物中, 利用GWAS不仅能够以较高的分辨率在全基因组水平鉴定出各种自然群体特定性状相关的基因或区间, 而且可揭示表型变异的遗传架构全景图。目前, 人们利用GWAS分析方法已在拟南芥(Arabidopsis thaliana)、水稻(Oryza sativa)、小麦(Triticum aestivum)、玉米(Zea mays)和大豆(Glycine max)等模式植物和重要农作物品系中发掘出与各种性状显著相关的数量性状座位(QTL)及其候选基因位点, 阐明了这些性状的遗传基础, 并为揭示这些性状背后的分子机理提供候选基因, 也为作物高产优质品种的选育提供了理论依据。该文对GWAS的方法、影响因素及数据分析流程进行了详细描述, 以期为相关研究提供参考。     

银川番茄斑萎病毒的分子鉴定

为明确银川番茄(Lycopersicon esculentum)是否遭受了番茄斑萎病毒(TSWV)的危害, 采用国家标准TSWV RT- PCR检测技术对银川番茄上采集的14份疑似感染TSWV病叶样本进行分子鉴定, 对克隆得到的核衣壳蛋白基因N (Nucleocapsid)序列进行多序列比对和系统进化树分析, 随后对PCR阳性样本进行蛋白检测。结果表明, 14份病叶样本中有8份扩增出长度为394 bp的TSWV N基因序列, 且8条序列完全一致; 获得的银川番茄TSWV分离物与云南番茄、中国莴苣(Lactuca sativa)、中国鸢尾(Iris tectorum)和重庆辣椒(Capsicum annuum) TSWV分离物相对近缘, 与山东、黑龙江和北京等地及国外TSWV分离物相对远缘; 利用TSWV的抗体通过Western blot对8个PCR阳性样本进一步检测, 结果也证实8个阳性样本中存在TSWV感染。该研究首次通过分子鉴定及蛋白检测证明银川番茄上存在TSWV感染, 需要加快抗TSWV番茄品种的选育工作。     

SMetABF: A rapid algorithm for Bayesian GWAS meta-analysis with a large number of studies included

Bayesian methods are widely used in the GWAS meta-analysis. But the considerable consumption in both computing time and memory space poses great challenges for large-scale meta-analyses. In this research, we propose an algorithm named SMetABF to rapidly obtain the optimal ABF in the GWAS meta-analysis, where shotgun stochastic search (SSS) is introduced to improve the Bayesian GWAS meta-analysis framework, MetABF. Simulation studies confirm that SMetABF performs well in both speed and accuracy, compared to exhaustive methods and MCMC. SMetABF is applied to real GWAS datasets to find several essential loci related to Parkinson’s disease (PD) and the results support the underlying relationship between PD and other autoimmune disorders. Developed as an R package and a web tool, SMetABF will become a useful tool to integrate different studies and identify more variants associated with complex traits.     

The construction of a haplotype reference panel using extremely low coverage whole genome sequences and its application in genome-wide association studies and genomic prediction in Duroc pigs

Extremely low coverage whole genome sequencing (lcWGS) is an economical technique to obtain high-density single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Here, we explored the feasibility of constructing a haplotype reference panel (lcHRP) using lcWGS and evaluated the effects of lcHRP through a genome-wide association study (GWAS) and genomic prediction in pigs. A total of 297 and 974 Duroc pigs were genotyped using lcWGS and a 50 K SNP array, respectively. We obtained 19,306,498 SNPs using lcWGS with an accuracy of 0.984. With the help of lcHRP, the accuracy of imputation from the SNP array to lcWGS was 0.922. Compared to the SNP array findings, those from the imputation-based GWAS identified more signals across four traits. With the integration of the top 1% imputation-based GWAS findings as genomic features, the accuracies of genomic prediction was improved by 6.0% to 13.2%. This study showed the great potential of lcWGS in pigs' molecular breeding.     

Integrating comprehensive functional annotations to boost power and accuracy in gene-based association analysis

Gene-based association tests aggregate genotypes across multiple variants for each gene, providing an interpretable gene-level analysis framework for genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Early gene-based test applications often focused on rare coding variants; a more recent wave of gene-based methods, e.g. TWAS, use eQTLs to interrogate regulatory associations. Regulatory variants are expected to be particularly valuable for gene-based analysis, since most GWAS associations to date are non-coding. However, identifying causal genes from regulatory associations remains challenging and contentious. Here, we present a statistical framework and computational tool to integrate heterogeneous annotations with GWAS summary statistics for gene-based analysis, applied with comprehensive coding and tissue-specific regulatory annotations. We compare power and accuracy identifying causal genes across single-annotation, omnibus, and annotation-agnostic gene-based tests in simulation studies and an analysis of 128 traits from the UK Biobank, and find that incorporating heterogeneous annotations in gene-based association analysis increases power and performance identifying causal genes.