A surplus no more? Variation in krill availability impacts reproductive rates of Antarctic baleen whales

The krill surplus hypothesis of unlimited prey resources available for Antarctic predators due to commercial whaling in the 20th century has remained largely untested since the 1970s. Rapid warming of the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) over the past 50 years has resulted in decreased seasonal ice cover and a reduction of krill. The latter is being exacerbated by a commercial krill fishery in the region. Despite this, humpback whale populations have increased but may be at a threshold for growth based on these human-induced changes. Understanding how climate-mediated variation in prey availability influences humpback whale population dynamics is critical for focused management and conservation actions. Using an 8-year dataset (2013–2020), we show that inter-annual humpback whale pregnancy rates, as determined from skin-blubber biopsy samples (n = 616), are positively correlated with krill availability and fluctuations in ice cover in the previous year. Pregnancy rates showed significant inter-annual variability, between 29% and 86%. Our results indicate that krill availability is in fact limiting and affecting reproductive rates, in contrast to the krill surplus hypothesis. This suggests that this population of humpback whales may be at a threshold for population growth due to prey limitations. As a result, continued warming and increased fishing along the WAP, which continue to reduce krill stocks, will likely impact this humpback whale population and other krill predators in the region. Humpback whales are sentinel species of ecosystem health, and changes in pregnancy rates can provide quantifiable signals of the impact of environmental change at the population level. Our findings must be considered paramount in developing new and more restrictive conservation and management plans for the Antarctic marine ecosystem and minimizing the negative impacts of human activities in the region.     

Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets

Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951–1980) exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability) are defined as “extremely hot”. The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, “extremely hot” summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5σ warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, “extremely hot” summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by “extremely hot” summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5σ or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low.     

Penguins, fur seals, and fishing: prey requirements and potential competition in the South Shetland Islands, Antarctica

Antarctic and sub-Antarctic seabirds, marine mammals, and human fisheries concentrate their foraging efforts on a single species, Antarctic krill (Euphausiasuperba). Because these predators may have a significant effect on krill abundance, we estimated the energy and prey requirements of Adelie (Pygoscelisadeliae), chinstrap (Pygoscelisantarctica), and gentoo (Pygoscelispapua) penguins and female Antarctic fur seals (Arctocephalusgazella) breeding on the South Shetland Islands, Antarctica and compared these estimates with catch statistics from the Antarctic krill fishery. Published data on field metabolic rate, population size, diet, prey energy content, and metabolic efficiency were used to estimate prey requirements of these breeding, adult, land-based predators and their dependent offspring. Due to their large population size, chinstrap penguins were the most significant krill predators during the period examined, consuming an estimated 7.8 × 10⁸ kg krill, followed by Adelie penguins (3.1 × 10⁷ kg), gentoo penguins (1.2 × 10⁷ kg), and Antarctic fur seals (3.6 × 10⁶ kg). Total consumption of all land-based predators on the South Shetland Islands was estimated at 8.3 × 10⁸ kg krill. The commercial krill fishery harvest in the South Shetland Island region (1.0 × 10⁸ kg) was approximately 12% of this. Commercial harvest coincides seasonally and spatially with peak penguin and fur seal prey demands, and may affect prey availability to penguins and fur seals. This differs from the conclusions of Ichii et al. who asserted that the potential for competition between South Shetland predators and the commercial krill fishery is low. Received: 26 August 1997 / Accepted: 16 December 1997     

Climatically driven fluctuations in Southern Ocean ecosystems

Determining how climate fluctuations affect ocean ecosystems requires an understanding of how biological and physical processes interact across a wide range of scales. Here we examine the role of physical and biological processes in generating fluctuations in the ecosystem around South Georgia in the South Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. Anomalies in sea surface temperature (SST) in the South Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean have previously been shown to be generated through atmospheric teleconnections with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related processes. These SST anomalies are propagated via the Antarctic Circumpolar Current into the South Atlantic (on time scales of more than 1 year), where ENSO and Southern Annular Mode-related atmospheric processes have a direct influence on short (less than six months) time scales. We find that across the South Atlantic sector, these changes in SST, and related fluctuations in winter sea ice extent, affect the recruitment and dispersal of Antarctic krill. This oceanographically driven variation in krill population dynamics and abundance in turn affects the breeding success of seabird and marine mammal predators that depend on krill as food. Such propagating anomalies, mediated through physical and trophic interactions, are likely to be an important component of variation in ocean ecosystems and affect responses to longer term change. Population models derived on the basis of these oceanic fluctuations indicate that plausible rates of regional warming of 1^oC over the next 100 years could lead to more than a 95% reduction in the biomass and abundance of krill across the Scotia Sea by the end of the century.     

Identifying Pelagic Habitat Hotspots of Neon Flying Squid in the Temperate Waters of the Central North Pacific

We identified the pelagic habitat hotspots of the neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) in the central North Pacific from May to July and characterized the spatial patterns of squid aggregations in relation to oceanographic features such as mesoscale oceanic eddies and the Transition Zone Chlorophyll-a Front (TZCF). The data used for the habitat model construction and analyses were squid fishery information, remotely-sensed and numerical model-derived environmental data from May to July 1999–2010. Squid habitat hotspots were deduced from the monthly Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) models and were identified as regions of persistent high suitable habitat across the 12-year period. The distribution of predicted squid habitat hotspots in central North Pacific revealed interesting spatial and temporal patterns likely linked with the presence and dynamics of oceanographic features in squid’s putative foraging grounds from late spring to summer. From May to June, the inferred patches of squid habitat hotspots developed within the Kuroshio-Oyashio transition zone (KOTZ; 37–40°N) and further expanded north towards the subarctic frontal zone (SAFZ; 40–44°N) in July. The squid habitat hotspots within the KOTZ and areas west of the dateline (160°W-180°) were likely influenced and associated with the highly dynamic and transient oceanic eddies and could possibly account for lower squid suitable habitat persistence obtained from these regions. However, predicted squid habitat hotspots located in regions east of the dateline (180°-160°W) from June to July, showed predominantly higher squid habitat persistence presumably due to their proximity to the mean position of the seasonally-shifting TZCF and consequent utilization of the highly productive waters of the SAFZ.     

基于精细尺度的冬季南乔治亚岛南极磷虾渔获率时空与环境效应

南乔治亚岛水域不仅是南极磷虾渔业的主要渔场之一,同时该水域的南极磷虾也是许多以该岛为栖息地的捕食者(如海豹、鲸鱼等)的饵料,因此对该岛南极磷虾资源丰度的研究对于深入理解南极生态系统有着非常重要的作用.本研究基于精细尺度渔业数据,利用广义可加模型(GAM)对2013年冬季南极磷虾渔获率与环境因子之间的关系进行研究.结果表明: 该模型对渔获率总偏差解释率为32.0%,其中贡献最大的为旬别,贡献率为21.4%;其次为纬度,但贡献率显著降低,仅为4.4%.7月上旬至9月上旬,渔获率总体上呈下降趋势.渔场东侧渔获率较高,尤其是中东部海域,而北侧的渔获率相对偏低.随着地形变化程度的增大,平均渔获率呈下降趋势.风力处于4级以下的情况不仅适宜捕捞作业,且渔获率也处于较高的水平.风向并不会对渔获率产生显著的影响.在表温0.5~2.0 ℃范围内,随着表温的增加,平均渔获率呈上升趋势.     

Effects of Whaling on the Structure of the Southern Ocean Food Web: Insights on the “Krill Surplus” from Ecosystem Modelling

The aim of this study was to examine the ecological plausibility of the “krill surplus” hypothesis and the effects of whaling on the Southern Ocean food web using mass-balance ecosystem modelling. The depletion trajectory and unexploited biomass of each rorqual population in the Antarctic was reconstructed using yearly catch records and a set of species-specific surplus production models. The resulting estimates of the unexploited biomass of Antarctic rorquals were used to construct an Ecopath model of the Southern Ocean food web existing in 1900. The rorqual depletion trajectory was then used in an Ecosim scenario to drive rorqual biomasses and examine the “krill surplus” phenomenon and whaling effects on the food web in the years 1900–2008. An additional suite of Ecosim scenarios reflecting several hypothetical trends in Southern Ocean primary productivity were employed to examine the effect of bottom-up forcing on the documented krill biomass trend. The output of the Ecosim scenarios indicated that while the “krill surplus” hypothesis is a plausible explanation of the biomass trends observed in some penguin and pinniped species in the mid-20^th century, the excess krill biomass was most likely eliminated by a rapid decline in primary productivity in the years 1975–1995. Our findings suggest that changes in physical conditions in the Southern Ocean during this time period could have eliminated the ecological effects of rorqual depletion, although the mechanism responsible is currently unknown. Furthermore, a decline in iron bioavailability due to rorqual depletion may have contributed to the rapid decline in overall Southern Ocean productivity during the last quarter of the 20^th century. The results of this study underscore the need for further research on historical changes in the roles of top-down and bottom-up forcing in structuring the Southern Ocean food web.     

Antarctic Crabs: Invasion or Endurance?

Recent scientific interest following the “discovery” of lithodid crabs around Antarctica has centred on a hypothesis that these crabs might be poised to invade the Antarctic shelf if the recent warming trend continues, potentially decimating its native fauna. This “invasion hypothesis” suggests that decapod crabs were driven out of Antarctica 40–15 million years ago and are only now returning as “warm” enough habitats become available. The hypothesis is based on a geographically and spatially poor fossil record of a different group of crabs (Brachyura), and examination of relatively few Recent lithodid samples from the Antarctic slope. In this paper, we examine the existing lithodid fossil record and present the distribution and biogeographic patterns derived from over 16,000 records of Recent Southern Hemisphere crabs and lobsters. Globally, the lithodid fossil record consists of only two known specimens, neither of which comes from the Antarctic. Recent records show that 22 species of crabs and lobsters have been reported from the Southern Ocean, with 12 species found south of 60°S. All are restricted to waters warmer than 0°C, with their Antarctic distribution limited to the areas of seafloor dominated by Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW). Currently, CDW extends further and shallower onto the West Antarctic shelf than the known distribution ranges of most lithodid species examined. Geological evidence suggests that West Antarctic shelf could have been available for colonisation during the last 9,000 years. Distribution patterns, species richness, and levels of endemism all suggest that, rather than becoming extinct and recently re-invading from outside Antarctica, the lithodid crabs have likely persisted, and even radiated, on or near to Antarctic slope. We conclude there is no evidence for a modern-day “crab invasion”. We recommend a repeated targeted lithodid sampling program along the West Antarctic shelf to fully test the validity of the “invasion hypothesis”.     

Will krill fare well under Southern Ocean acidification?

Antarctic krill embryos and larvae were experimentally exposed to 380 (control), 1000 and 2000 µatm pCO₂ in order to assess the possible impact of ocean acidification on early development of krill. No significant effects were detected on embryonic development or larval behaviour at 1000 µatm pCO₂; however, at 2000 µatm pCO₂ development was disrupted before gastrulation in 90 per cent of embryos, and no larvae hatched successfully. Our model projections demonstrated that Southern Ocean sea water pCO₂ could rise up to 1400 µatm in krill''s depth range under the IPCC IS92a scenario by the year 2100 (atmospheric pCO₂ 788 µatm). These results point out the urgent need for understanding the pCO₂-response relationship for krill developmental and later stages, in order to predict the possible fate of this key species in the Southern Ocean.     

Three‐liquid‐phase salting‐out extraction of eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA)‐rich oils from Euphausia superba

The TLPSOES parameters were optimized by response surface methodology using Box–Behnken design, which were 16.5% w/w of ammonium citrate, 17.5% w/w of ethanol, and 46% w/w of n‐hexane at 70 min of stirring time. Under optimized conditions the extraction efficiency attained was 90.91 ± 0.97% of EPA, 90.02 ± 1.04% of DHA, and 91.85 ± 1.11% of KO in the top n‐hexane phase. The highest extraction efficiency of proteins and flavonoids, i.e. 88.34 ± 1.35% and 79.67 ± 1.13%, was recorded in the solid interface and ethanol phase, respectively. The KO extracted by TLPSOES system consisted of lowest fluoride level compared to the conventional method and whole wet krill biomass. The TLPSOES is a potential candidate for nutraceutical industry of KO extraction from wet krill biomass.     

Intra‐season variations in distribution and abundance of humpback whales in the West Antarctic Peninsula using cruise vessels as opportunistic platforms

Fine‐scale knowledge of spatiotemporal dynamics in cetacean distribution and abundance throughout the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is sparse yet essential for effective ecosystem‐based management (EBM). Cruise vessels were used as platforms of opportunity to collect data on the distribution and abundance of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) during the austral summer of 2019/2020 in a region that is also important for the Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) fishery, to assess potential spatiotemporal interactions for future use in EBM. Data were analyzed using traditional design‐based line transect methodology and spatial density surface hurdle models fitted using a set of physical environmental covariates to estimate the abundance and distribution of whales in the area, and to describe their temporal dynamics. Our results indicate a rapid increase in humpback whale abundance in the Bransfield and Gerlache Straits through December, reaching a stable abundance by mid‐January. The distribution of humpback whales appeared to change from a patchier distribution in the northern Gerlache Strait to a significantly concentrated presence in the central Gerlache and southern Bransfield Straits, followed by a subsequent dispersion throughout the area. Abundance estimates agreed well with previous literature, increasing from approximately 7000 individuals in 2000 to a peak of 19,107 in 2020. Based on these estimates, we project a total krill consumption of between 1.4 and 3.7 million tons based on traditional and contemporary literature on per capita krill consumption of whales, respectively. When taken in the context of krill fishery catch data in the study area, we conclude that there is minimal spatiotemporal overlap between humpback whales and fishery activity during our study period of November–January. However, there is potential for significant interaction between the two later in the feeding season, but cetacean survey efforts need to be extended into late season in order to fully characterize this potential overlap.     

A photographic documentation of the development of Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) from egg to early juvenile

Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) is a key species in Antarctic marine ecosystems, as well as an important species in the Southern Ocean fishery. Here, we provide the first detailed photographic documentation of embryonic and larval development of Antarctic krill over a 5-month developmental period under controlled laboratory conditions. Developing embryos and larvae were photographed every 3 h and every 5 days, respectively. Our results indicated a developmental time of approximately 6 days for embryos and 138 days for larvae (0.5 °C). This study provided baseline biometry information for future investigations of Antarctic krill development under changing environmental conditions.     

Potential Impacts of Climate Warming on Water Supply Reliability in the Tuolumne and Merced River Basins,California

We present an integrated hydrology/water operations simulation model of the Tuolumne and Merced River Basins, California, using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) platform. The model represents hydrology as well as water operations, which together influence water supplied for agricultural, urban, and environmental uses. The model is developed for impacts assessment using scenarios for climate change and other drivers of water system behavior. In this paper, we describe the model structure, its representation of historical streamflow, agricultural and urban water demands, and water operations. We describe projected impacts of climate change on hydrology and water supply to the major irrigation districts in the area, using uniform 2°C, 4°C, and 6°C increases applied to climate inputs from the calibration period. Consistent with other studies, we find that the timing of hydrology shifts earlier in the water year in response to temperature warming (5–21 days). The integrated agricultural model responds with increased water demands 2°C (1.4–2.0%), 4°C (2.8–3.9%), and 6°C (4.2–5.8%). In this sensitivity analysis, the combination of altered hydrology and increased demands results in decreased reliability of surface water supplied for agricultural purposes, with modeled quantity-based reliability metrics decreasing from a range of 0.84–0.90 under historical conditions to 0.75–0.79 under 6°C warming scenario.     

Shifts in soil microorganisms in response to warming are consistent across a range of Antarctic environments

Because of severe abiotic limitations, Antarctic soils represent simplified systems, where microorganisms are the principal drivers of nutrient cycling. This relative simplicity makes these ecosystems particularly vulnerable to perturbations, like global warming, and the Antarctic Peninsula is among the most rapidly warming regions on the planet. However, the consequences of the ongoing warming of Antarctica on microorganisms and the processes they mediate are unknown. Here, using 16S rRNA gene pyrosequencing and qPCR, we report highly consistent responses in microbial communities across disparate sub-Antarctic and Antarctic environments in response to 3 years of experimental field warming (+0.5 to 2 °C). Specifically, we found significant increases in the abundance of fungi and bacteria and in the Alphaproteobacteria-to-Acidobacteria ratio, which could result in an increase in soil respiration. Furthermore, shifts toward generalist bacterial communities following warming weakened the linkage between the bacterial taxonomic and functional richness. GeoChip microarray analyses also revealed significant warming effects on functional communities, specifically in the N-cycling microorganisms. Our results demonstrate that soil microorganisms across a range of sub-Antarctic and Antarctic environments can respond consistently and rapidly to increasing temperatures.     

Length–weight relationships of five fish species associated with krill fishery in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean

Length–weight relationships (LWRs) of five fish species commonly associated with Antarctic krill fishery, were determined. Samples were collected with Chinese krill trawler (codend mesh size 2 cm) in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean from January to August 2016. Data on LWRs and the relationships between weight and standard length as well as weight and total length of those species were updated for the database of FishBase. Those data on fish species derived from Antarctic krill fishery will be very helpful in understanding the interaction between krill fishery and the associated fish community.     

The association of Antarctic krill Euphausia superba with the under-ice habitat

The association of Antarctic krill Euphausia superba with the under-ice habitat was investigated in the Lazarev Sea (Southern Ocean) during austral summer, autumn and winter. Data were obtained using novel Surface and Under Ice Trawls (SUIT), which sampled the 0-2 m surface layer both under sea ice and in open water. Average surface layer densities ranged between 0.8 individuals m(-2) in summer and autumn, and 2.7 individuals m(-2) in winter. In summer, under-ice densities of Antarctic krill were significantly higher than in open waters. In autumn, the opposite pattern was observed. Under winter sea ice, densities were often low, but repeatedly far exceeded summer and autumn maxima. Statistical models showed that during summer high densities of Antarctic krill in the 0-2 m layer were associated with high ice coverage and shallow mixed layer depths, among other factors. In autumn and winter, density was related to hydrographical parameters. Average under-ice densities from the 0-2 m layer were higher than corresponding values from the 0-200 m layer collected with Rectangular Midwater Trawls (RMT) in summer. In winter, under-ice densities far surpassed maximum 0-200 m densities on several occasions. This indicates that the importance of the ice-water interface layer may be under-estimated by the pelagic nets and sonars commonly used to estimate the population size of Antarctic krill for management purposes, due to their limited ability to sample this habitat. Our results provide evidence for an almost year-round association of Antarctic krill with the under-ice habitat, hundreds of kilometres into the ice-covered area of the Lazarev Sea. Local concentrations of postlarval Antarctic krill under winter sea ice suggest that sea ice biota are important for their winter survival. These findings emphasise the susceptibility of an ecological key species to changing sea ice habitats, suggesting potential ramifications on Antarctic ecosystems induced by climate change.     

Climate Warming May Facilitate Invasion of the Exotic Shrub Lantana camara

Plant species show different responses to the elevated temperatures that are resulting from global climate change, depending on their ecological and physiological characteristics. The highly invasive shrub Lantana camara occurs between the latitudes of 35°N and 35°S. According to current and future climate scenarios predicted by the CLIMEX model, climatically suitable areas for L. camara are projected to contract globally, despite expansions in some areas. The objective of this study was to test those predictions, using a pot experiment in which branch cuttings were grown at three different temperatures (22°C, 26°C and 30°C). We hypothesized that warming would facilitate the invasiveness of L. camara. In response to rising temperatures, the total biomass of L. camara did increase. Plants allocated more biomass to stems and enlarged their leaves more at 26°C and 30°C, which promoted light capture and assimilation. They did not appear to be stressed by higher temperatures, in fact photosynthesis and assimilation were enhanced. Using lettuce (Lactuca sativa) as a receptor plant in a bioassay experiment, we also tested the phytotoxicity of L. camara leachate at different temperatures. All aqueous extracts from fresh leaves significantly inhibited the germination and seedling growth of lettuce, and the allelopathic effects became stronger with increasing temperature. Our results provide key evidence that elevated temperature led to significant increases in growth along with physiological and allelopathic effects, which together indicate that global warming facilitates the invasion of L. camara.     

Early-life exposure to climate change impairs tropical shark survival

Sharks are one of the most threatened groups of marine animals worldwide, mostly owing to overfishing and habitat degradation/loss. Although these cartilaginous fish have evolved to fill many ecological niches across a wide range of habitats, they have limited capability to rapidly adapt to human-induced changes in their environments. Contrary to global warming, ocean acidification was not considered as a direct climate-related threat to sharks. Here we show, for the first time, that an early ontogenetic acclimation process of a tropical shark (Chiloscyllium punctatum) to the projected scenarios of ocean acidification (ΔpH = 0.5) and warming (+4°C; 30°C) for 2100 elicited significant impairments on juvenile shark condition and survival. The mortality of shark embryos at the present-day thermal scenarios was 0% both at normocapnic and hypercapnic conditions. Yet routine metabolic rates (RMRs) were significantly affected by temperature, pH and embryonic stage. Immediately after hatching, the Fulton condition of juvenile bamboo sharks was significantly different in individuals that experienced future warming and hypercapnia; 30 days after hatching, survival rapidly declined in individuals experiencing both ocean warming and acidification (up to 44%). The RMR of juvenile sharks was also significantly affected by temperature and pH. The impact of low pH on ventilation rates was significant only under the higher thermal scenario. This study highlights the need of experimental-based risk assessments of sharks to climate change. In other words, it is critical to directly assess risk and vulnerability of sharks to ocean acidification and warming, and such effort can ultimately help managers and policy-makers to take proactive measures targeting most endangered species.