Thermal Tolerance of the Coffee Berry Borer Hypothenemus hampei: Predictions of Climate Change Impact on a Tropical Insect Pest

Coffee is predicted to be severely affected by climate change. We determined the thermal tolerance of the coffee berry borer , Hypothenemus hampei, the most devastating pest of coffee worldwide, and make inferences on the possible effects of climate change using climatic data from Colombia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Ethiopia. For this, the effect of eight temperature regimes (15, 20, 23, 25, 27, 30, 33 and 35°C) on the bionomics of H. hampei was studied. Successful egg to adult development occurred between 20–30°C. Using linear regression and a modified Logan model, the lower and upper thresholds for development were estimated at 14.9 and 32°C, respectively. In Kenya and Colombia, the number of pest generations per year was considerably and positively correlated with the warming tolerance. Analysing 32 years of climatic data from Jimma (Ethiopia) revealed that before 1984 it was too cold for H. hampei to complete even one generation per year, but thereafter, because of rising temperatures in the area, 1–2 generations per year/coffee season could be completed. Calculated data on warming tolerance and thermal safety margins of H. hampei for the three East African locations showed considerably high variability compared to the Colombian site. The model indicates that for every 1°C rise in thermal optimum (T_opt.), the maximum intrinsic rate of increase (r _max) will increase by an average of 8.5%. The effects of climate change on the further range of H. hampei distribution and possible adaption strategies are discussed. Abstracts in Spanish and French are provided as supplementary material Abstract S1 and Abstract S2.     

Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Chinese Caterpillar Fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in Nepal Himalaya

Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and species and substantial impacts of climate change in the future are expected. Species distribution modeling is widely used to map the current potential distribution of species as well as to model the impact of future climate change on distribution of species. Mapping current distribution is useful for conservation planning and understanding the change in distribution impacted by climate change is important for mitigation of future biodiversity losses. However, the current distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus, a flagship species of the Himalaya with very high economic value, is unknown. Nor do we know the potential changes in suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus caused by future climate change. We used MaxEnt modeling to predict current distribution and changes in the future distributions of Chinese caterpillar fungus in three future climate change trajectories based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 6.0) in three different time periods (2030, 2050, and 2070) using species occurrence points, bioclimatic variables, and altitude. About 6.02% (8,989 km²) area of the Nepal Himalaya is suitable for Chinese caterpillar fungus habitat. Our model showed that across all future climate change trajectories over three different time periods, the area of predicted suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus would expand, with 0.11–4.87% expansion over current suitable habitat. Depending upon the representative concentration pathways, we observed both increase and decrease in average elevation of the suitable habitat range of the species.     

The Impact of Climate Change on Indigenous Arabica Coffee (Coffea arabica): Predicting Future Trends and Identifying Priorities

Precise modelling of the influence of climate change on Arabica coffee is limited; there are no data available for indigenous populations of this species. In this study we model the present and future predicted distribution of indigenous Arabica, and identify priorities in order to facilitate appropriate decision making for conservation, monitoring and future research. Using distribution data we perform bioclimatic modelling and examine future distribution with the HadCM3 climate model for three emission scenarios (A1B, A2A, B2A) over three time intervals (2020, 2050, 2080). The models show a profoundly negative influence on indigenous Arabica. In a locality analysis the most favourable outcome is a c. 65% reduction in the number of pre-existing bioclimatically suitable localities, and at worst an almost 100% reduction, by 2080. In an area analysis the most favourable outcome is a 38% reduction in suitable bioclimatic space, and the least favourable a c. 90% reduction, by 2080. Based on known occurrences and ecological tolerances of Arabica, bioclimatic unsuitability would place populations in peril, leading to severe stress and a high risk of extinction. This study establishes a fundamental baseline for assessing the consequences of climate change on wild populations of Arabica coffee. Specifically, it: (1) identifies and categorizes localities and areas that are predicted to be under threat from climate change now and in the short- to medium-term (2020–2050), representing assessment priorities for ex situ conservation; (2) identifies ‘core localities’ that could have the potential to withstand climate change until at least 2080, and therefore serve as long-term in situ storehouses for coffee genetic resources; (3) provides the location and characterization of target locations (populations) for on-the-ground monitoring of climate change influence. Arabica coffee is confimed as a climate sensitivite species, supporting data and inference that existing plantations will be neagtively impacted by climate change.     

Climate Change Influences on the Global Potential Distribution of Bluetongue Virus

The geographic distribution of arboviruses has received considerable attention after several dramatic emergence events around the world. Bluetongue virus (BTV) is classified among category “A” diseases notifiable to the World Organization of Animal Health (OIE), and is transmitted among ruminants by biting midges of the genus Culicoides. Here, we developed a comprehensive occurrence data set to map the current distribution, estimate the ecological niche, and explore the future potential distribution of BTV globally using ecological niche modeling and based on diverse future climate scenarios from general circulation models (GCMs) for four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The broad ecological niche and potential geographic distribution of BTV under present-day conditions reflected the disease’s current distribution across the world in tropical, subtropical, and temperate regions. All model predictions were significantly better than random expectations. As a further evaluation of model robustness, we compared our model predictions to 331 independent records from most recent outbreaks from the Food and Agriculture Organization Emergency Prevention System for Transboundary Animal and Plant Pests and Diseases Information System (EMPRES-i); all were successfully anticipated by the BTV model. Finally, we tested ecological niche similarity among possible vectors and BTV, and could not reject hypotheses of niche similarity. Under future-climate conditions, the potential distribution of BTV was predicted to broaden, especially in central Africa, United States, and western Russia.     

The Potential Impact of Agricultural Management and Climate Change on Soil Organic Carbon of the North Central Region of the United States

Soil organic carbon (SOC) represents a significant pool of carbon within the biosphere. Climatic shifts in temperature and precipitation have a major influence on the decomposition and amount of SOC stored within an ecosystem. We have linked net primary production algorithms, which include the impact of enhanced atmospheric CO₂ on plant growth, to the Soil Organic Carbon Resources And Transformations in EcoSystems (SOCRATES) model to develop a SOC map for the North Central Region of the United States between the years 1850 and 2100 in response to agricultural activity and climate conditions generated by the CSIRO Mk2 Global Circulation Model (GCM) and based on the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) IS92a emission scenario. We estimate that the current day (1990) stocks of SOC in the top 10 cm of the North Central Region to be 4692 Mt, and 8090 Mt in the top 20 cm of soil. This is 19% lower than the pre-settlement steady state value predicted by the SOCRATES model. By the year 2100, with temperature and precipitation increasing across the North Central Region by an average of 3.9°C and 8.1 cm, respectively, SOCRATES predicts SOC stores of the North Central Region to decline by 11.5 and 2% (in relation to 1990 values) for conventional and conservation tillage scenarios, respectively.     

气候变化对6种荒漠植物分布的潜在影响

分析气候变化对植物分布的影响,对保护生物多样性具有重要意义。利用CART（分类和回归树）模型及A2和B2情景,分析了气候变化对短叶假木贼（Anabasis brevifolia）、裸果木（Gymnocarpos przewalskii）、梭梭（Haloxylon ammoden-dron）、膜果麻黄（Ephedra przewalskii）、驼绒藜（Ceratoides latens）和喀什膜果麻黄（Ephedra przewalskii var.kaschgarica）分布范围及空间格局的影响。结果表明：气候变化下,这些植物目前适宜分布范围减小;从新适宜及总适宜分布范围而言,短叶假木贼和梭梭从1991-2020年到2051-2080年时段增加,之后减小,其它植物从1991-2020年到2081-2100年时段减小;喀什膜果麻黄和驼绒藜适宜分布范围减小并破碎化,其它植物向目前适宜分布的西部、西北部（或青海西南部）、昆仑山、阿尔金山和祁连山区扩展;除驼绒藜和喀什膜果麻黄与年均气温变化具显著相关性外,其它植物分布范围与年均气温和降水量变化的相关性较弱（P〉0.05）,除驼绒藜、喀什膜果麻黄和裸果木目前分布范围与年均气温和降水量变化的回归关系较强外,其它植物分布范围与年均气温和年降水量变化多元线性回归关系较弱。上述研究结果表明,气候变化下,这些植物空间分布格局改变,目前分布范围减少,新适宜及总适宜分布范围近期增加,随着气候变化程度的增强,又逐渐减小。     

Modeling the Potential Distribution of Bacillus anthracis under Multiple Climate Change Scenarios for Kazakhstan

Anthrax, caused by the bacterium Bacillus anthracis, is a zoonotic disease that persists throughout much of the world in livestock, wildlife, and secondarily infects humans. This is true across much of Central Asia, and particularly the Steppe region, including Kazakhstan. This study employed the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) to model the current and future geographic distribution of Bacillus anthracis in Kazakhstan based on the A2 and B2 IPCC SRES climate change scenarios using a 5-variable data set at 55 km² and 8 km² and a 6-variable BioClim data set at 8 km². Future models suggest large areas predicted under current conditions may be reduced by 2050 with the A2 model predicting ∼14–16% loss across the three spatial resolutions. There was greater variability in the B2 models across scenarios predicting ∼15% loss at 55 km², ∼34% loss at 8 km², and ∼30% loss with the BioClim variables. Only very small areas of habitat expansion into new areas were predicted by either A2 or B2 in any models. Greater areas of habitat loss are predicted in the southern regions of Kazakhstan by A2 and B2 models, while moderate habitat loss is also predicted in the northern regions by either B2 model at 8 km². Anthrax disease control relies mainly on livestock vaccination and proper carcass disposal, both of which require adequate surveillance. In many situations, including that of Kazakhstan, vaccine resources are limited, and understanding the geographic distribution of the organism, in tandem with current data on livestock population dynamics, can aid in properly allocating doses. While speculative, contemplating future changes in livestock distributions and B. anthracis spore promoting environments can be useful for establishing future surveillance priorities. This study may also have broader applications to global public health surveillance relating to other diseases in addition to B. anthracis.     

Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Cold-Tolerant Evergreen Broadleaved Woody Plants in the Korean Peninsula

Climate change has caused shifts in species’ ranges and extinctions of high-latitude and altitude species. Most cold-tolerant evergreen broadleaved woody plants (shortened to cold-evergreens below) are rare species occurring in a few sites in the alpine and subalpine zones in the Korean Peninsula. The aim of this research is to 1) identify climate factors controlling the range of cold-evergreens in the Korean Peninsula; and 2) predict the climate change effects on the range of cold-evergreens. We used multimodel inference based on combinations of climate variables to develop distribution models of cold-evergreens at a physiognomic-level. Presence/absence data of 12 species at 204 sites and 6 climatic factors, selected from among 23 candidate variables, were used for modeling. Model uncertainty was estimated by mapping a total variance calculated by adding the weighted average of within-model variation to the between-model variation. The range of cold-evergreens and model performance were validated by true skill statistics, the receiver operating characteristic curve and the kappa statistic. Climate change effects on the cold-evergreens were predicted according to the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Multimodel inference approach excellently projected the spatial distribution of cold-evergreens (AUC = 0.95, kappa = 0.62 and TSS = 0.77). Temperature was a dominant factor in model-average estimates, while precipitation was minor. The climatic suitability increased from the southwest, lowland areas, to the northeast, high mountains. The range of cold-evergreens declined under climate change. Mountain-tops in the south and most of the area in the north remained suitable in 2050 and 2070 under the RCP 4.5 projection and 2050 under the RCP 8.5 projection. Only high-elevations in the northeastern Peninsula remained suitable under the RCP 8.5 projection. A northward and upper-elevational range shift indicates change in species composition at the alpine and subalpine ecosystems in the Korean Peninsula.     

全球气候变化对沈阳地区春玉米生长的可能影响

利用玉米（Ｚｅａ ｍａｙｓ Ｌ．）生长生理生态学模拟模型（ＭＰＥＳＭ）,分别模拟了未来气候变化的１２种气候条件下（ＣＯ２浓度倍增,平均气温上升１．５℃、３．０℃和４．５℃,降水量增加２０％、减少２０％、减少４０％和降水量不变）,沈阳地区土壤湿度、玉米发育和玉米生长的变化,并与当前条件下进行了比较,以评价玉米生长对各气候因子变化的敏感性和全球气候变化下沈阳地区春玉米的生长趋势。研究表明：土壤湿度对降     

Beauveria bassiana -A Potential Mycopesticide for the Efficient Control of Coffee Berry Borer, Hypothenemus hampei (Ferrari) in India

The Coffee Berry Borer (CBB), Hypothenemus hampei (Ferrari) (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) has been a serious insect pest of coffee cultivars C. robusta and C. catimor in India since 1991, causing 40-80% coffee bean loss. To combat this important pest, an indigenous entomopathogenic fungus Beauveria bassiana (Balsamo) Vuillemin was isolated from dead and moribund coffee berry borers from the wild. The fungus was cultured on yeast extractpeptone supplemented liquid medium. The mycelial mat was harvested from 12-day old cultures and lyophilized. A suspension of the most virulent isolate (Bb2) was prepared in sterile water and used as a mycopesticide. The laboratory studies were conducted on coffee berry borers by applying conidial suspensions at a dosage rate of 1 ×10 6 conidia ml -1 . Pest mortality with the Bb2 isolate increased from 69.3% to 95.3% with an increase in relative humidity (RH) at 25 ±2°C. Field experiments were conducted in a coffee plantation area in the Kodagu district of Karnataka, and the results showed that, under favourable environmental conditions (27- 29°C; 82-91% RH; 10-15 inches rainfall per year), the fungus required only eight days to colonize and kill the target pest. A maximum of 75.6% insect mortality was recorded 24 days after spraying. Large-scale field trials conducted in five plantation plots between September 1995 and September 1998 showed significant insect mortality both in C. robusta and C. catimor cultivars of coffee. The potential use of this indigenous fungal strain of B. bassiana as a mycopesticide for management of CBB in India is discussed.     

气候变化对7种乔木植物分布的潜在影响

利用CART（classification and regression tree,分类和回归树）生态位模型,采用A2和B2气候情景,分析了气候变化对秦岭冷杉、祁连圆柏、楠木、麦吊云杉、马尾树、领春木和连香树分布范围及空间格局的影响。结果显示：气候变化下,这些植物目前适宜分布范围呈现缩小趋势;新适宜及总适宜分布范围,连香树、马尾树、楠木和祁连圆柏呈现减少趋势,秦岭冷杉在1991-2020年及2021-2050年时段呈现减少趋势,之后增加,其它植物呈现增加趋势。气候变化下,马尾树目前适宜分布的东南部一些区域将不再适宜,新适宜分布区将向西南、北部、西部和东北部一些区域扩展;秦岭冷杉目前适宜分布的东南部和东部一些区域将不再适宜,新适宜分布区将向西南部、西北部和西部一些区域扩展;其它植物目前适宜分布的东部、东南部、南部及东北部一些区域将不再适宜,新适宜分布区将向西部和西南部一些区域扩展。气候变化下,这些植物适宜分布范围与年均气温和降水量变化相关性并不一致,一些植物适宜分布范围与年均气温和降水量变化相关系数不显著。另外,一些植物适宜范围与年降水量和年均气温变化多元线性回归关系决定系数较小。结果说明,气候变化下,目前适宜范围缩小,新适宜范围主要向高海拔扩展,不同植物适宜分布范围与年均气温和年降水量变化的关系不同。     

Uncertainties in Predicting Species Distributions under Climate Change: A Case Study Using Tetranychus evansi (Acari: Tetranychidae), a Widespread Agricultural Pest

Many species are shifting their distributions due to climate change and to increasing international trade that allows dispersal of individuals across the globe. In the case of agricultural pests, such range shifts may heavily impact agriculture. Species distribution modelling may help to predict potential changes in pest distributions. However, these modelling strategies are subject to large uncertainties coming from different sources. Here we used the case of the tomato red spider mite (Tetranychus evansi), an invasive pest that affects some of the most important agricultural crops worldwide, to show how uncertainty may affect forecasts of the potential range of the species. We explored three aspects of uncertainty: (1) species prevalence; (2) modelling method; and (3) variability in environmental responses between mites belonging to two invasive clades of T. evansi. Consensus techniques were used to forecast the potential range of the species under current and two different climate change scenarios for 2080, and variance between model projections were mapped to identify regions of high uncertainty. We revealed large predictive variations linked to all factors, although prevalence had a greater influence than the statistical model once the best modelling strategies were selected. The major areas threatened under current conditions include tropical countries in South America and Africa, and temperate regions in North America, the Mediterranean basin and Australia. Under future scenarios, the threat shifts towards northern Europe and some other temperate regions in the Americas, whereas tropical regions in Africa present a reduced risk. Analysis of niche overlap suggests that the current differential distribution of mites of the two clades of T. evansi can be partially attributed to environmental niche differentiation. Overall this study shows how consensus strategies and analysis of niche overlap can be used jointly to draw conclusions on invasive threat considering different sources of uncertainty in species distribution modelling.     

Migration and Agricultural Change: The Case of Smallholder Agriculture in Highland Ecuador

A large and growing number of agricultural households in less developed countries are also engaged in international migration. Thousands of farmers from the highland provinces of Cañar and Azuay, Ecuador, have immigrated to metropolitan New York, where they work in menial jobs and remit, as a group, millions of dollars annually. This paper examines the effects of international migration on agricultural production and land-use in two regions of Cañar Province. An agricultural survey was administered in two communities to determine land-use and agricultural production of migrant and nonmigrant households. Contrary to most reports on the subject, migration has neither led to agricultural abandonment nor have remittances been dedicated to agricultural improvements. Semisubsistence agriculture remains an important riskaverse economic and cultural activity, but cultivation is a poor investment. A large investment in housing and land has converted much of the region into a peri-urban landscape of cultivated real estate.     

Incorporating Field Studies into Species Distribution and Climate Change Modelling: A Case Study of the Koomal Trichosurus vulpecula hypoleucus (Phalangeridae)

Species distribution models (SDMs) are an effective way of predicting the potential distribution of species and their response to environmental change. Most SDMs apply presence data to a relatively generic set of predictive variables such as climate. However, this weakens the modelling process by overlooking the responses to more cryptic predictive variables. In this paper we demonstrate a means by which data gathered from an intensive animal trapping study can be used to enhance SDMs by combining field data with bioclimatic modelling techniques to determine the future potential distribution for the koomal (Trichosurus vulpecula hypoleucus). The koomal is a geographically isolated subspecies of the common brushtail possum, endemic to south-western Australia. Since European settlement this taxon has undergone a significant reduction in distribution due to its vulnerability to habitat fragmentation, introduced predators and tree/shrub dieback caused by a virulent group of plant pathogens of the genus Phytophthora. An intensive field study found: 1) the home range for the koomal rarely exceeded 1 km in in length at its widest point; 2) areas heavily infested with dieback were not occupied; 3) gap crossing between patches (>400 m) was common behaviour; 4) koomal presence was linked to the extent of suitable vegetation; and 5) where the needs of koomal were met, populations in fragments were demographically similar to those found in contiguous landscapes. We used this information to resolve a more accurate SDM for the koomal than that created from bioclimatic data alone. Specifically, we refined spatial coverages of remnant vegetation and dieback, to develop a set of variables that we combined with selected bioclimatic variables to construct models. We conclude that the utility value of an SDM can be enhanced and given greater resolution by identifying variables that reflect observed, species-specific responses to landscape parameters and incorporating these responses into the model.     

Mating Behavior of the Coffee Berry Borer, Hypothenemus hampei (Ferrari) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae)

The mating behavior of the coffee berry borer, Hypothenemus hampei (Ferrari), was observed under laboratory conditions. Pairs of adult virgin male and female beetles were placed in the wells of a polystyrene microtiter plate, one pair per well. The mating activity of each pair was recorded for 24?h. The mating behavior of the coffee berry borer was similar to that of other Scolytinae and was clearly divided into precopulatory, copulatory and postcopulatory phases. The beetles started to mate within a few hours of emergence. Repeated mating occurred during the 24-hour period and increased in frequency with age. However, we cannot address multiple matings in H. hampei, since we did not simulate the female-biased sex ratio of this species and the experimental design did not allow females to avoid additional mating attempts by males. In addition, further studies are necessary that focus on the effectiveness of sperm transmission and direct and indirect effects of multiple matings on the H. hampei females and their offspring.     

Modeling the Impact of White-Plague Coral Disease in Climate Change Scenarios

Coral reefs are in global decline, with coral diseases increasing both in prevalence and in space, a situation that is expected only to worsen as future thermal stressors increase. Through intense surveillance, we have collected a unique and highly resolved dataset from the coral reef of Eilat (Israel, Red Sea), that documents the spatiotemporal dynamics of a White Plague Disease (WPD) outbreak over the course of a full season. Based on modern statistical methodologies, we develop a novel spatial epidemiological model that uses a maximum-likelihood procedure to fit the data and assess the transmission pattern of WPD. We link the model to sea surface temperature (SST) and test the possible effect of increasing temperatures on disease dynamics. Our results reveal that the likelihood of a susceptible coral to become infected is governed both by SST and by its spatial location relative to nearby infected corals. The model shows that the magnitude of WPD epidemics strongly depends on demographic circumstances; under one extreme, when recruitment is free-space regulated and coral density remains relatively constant, even an increase of only 0.5°C in SST can cause epidemics to double in magnitude. In reality, however, the spatial nature of transmission can effectively protect the community, restricting the magnitude of annual epidemics. This is because the probability of susceptible corals to become infected is negatively associated with coral density. Based on our findings, we expect that infectious diseases having a significant spatial component, such as Red-Sea WPD, will never lead to a complete destruction of the coral community under increased thermal stress. However, this also implies that signs of recovery of local coral communities may be misleading; indicative more of spatial dynamics than true rehabilitation of these communities. In contrast to earlier generic models, our approach captures dynamics of WPD both in space and time, accounting for the highly seasonal nature of annual WPD outbreaks.     

Impact of the Uremic Milieu on the Osteogenic Potential of Mesenchymal Stem Cells

Human mesenchymal stem cells (hMSCs), the precursors of osteoblasts during osteogenesis, play a role in the balance of bone formation and resorption, but their functioning in uremia has not been well defined. To study the effects of the uremic milieu on osteogenic properties, we applied an in vitro assay culturing hMSCs in osteogenic medium supplemented with serum from healthy donors and from uremic patients on hemodialysis. Compared to control, serum from uremic patients induces, in hMSC cultures, a modification of several key regulators of bone remodeling, in particular a reduction of the ratio Receptor Activator of Nuclear factor Kappa B Receptor (RANKL) over osteoprotegerin, indicating an adaptive response of the system to favor osteogenesis over osteoclastosis. However, the levels of osteopontin, osteocalcin, and collagen type I, are increased in cell medium, while BMP-2, and alizarin red staining were decreased, pointing to a reduction of bone formation favoring resorption. Selected uremic toxins, such as p-cresylsulfate, p-cresylglucuronide, parathyroid hormone, indoxyl sulfate, asymmetric dimethylarginine, homocysteine, were able to mimic some of the effects of whole serum from uremic patients. Serum from cinacalcet-treated patients antagonizes these effects. Hydrogen sulfide (H2S) donors as well as hemodialysis treatment are able to induce beneficial effects. In conclusion, bone modifications in uremia are influenced by the capability of the uremic milieu to alter hMSC osteogenic differentiation. Cinacalcet, H2S donors and a hemodialysis session can ameliorate the hampered calcium deposition.     

Distribution Changes of Chinese Skink(Eumeces chinensis) in China: the Impacts of Global Climate Change

Repaid global climate changes in temperature and rainfall influence the species distribution and diversity patterns. Chinse skink is a common species with large population and widely distribution in China. To access potential effect of climate changes on the unendangered species, we used the maximum-entropy modeling(MaxEnt) method to estimate the current and future potential distributions of Chinese Skink. Predictions were based on two periods(2050 and 2070), three general circulation models(GCMs: BCC-CSM1-1, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5),four representative concentration pathways(RCP:2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.0) and 28 environmental variables including topography, human impact, bio-climate and habitat. We found that the model were better fit with high values in AUC, KAPPA and TSS. The jackknife tests showed that variables of BIO9, BIO14, BIO15, HFI and GDP were relatively higher contributions to the model. Although the size of suitable areas for skink have less effect by future climate change under full and mull dispersal hypothesis, we should still focuse on the effect of human impact and climate changes on the protection and management for Chinese skink due to the variables uncertainty.