Concordance between partners in desired waiting time to birth for newlyweds in India

Examining waiting time to birth among newlywed couples is likely to provide insights into the desire for spacing births among newlywed husbands and wives. Data from the Indian National Family Health Survey of 2005-06 are used to examine the desired waiting time (DWT) to birth among newlywed couples. The dependent variable is spousal concordance on desired waiting times. Overall 65% of couples have concordant desired waiting times. Among discordant couples, wives were more likely to want to wait longer than their husbands. Couples from richer wealth quintiles were more likely than couples from the poorest quintile to have concordant desired waiting times. Muslims were less likely than Hindus to have concordant desires. There is a need for spacing contraceptive methods among newlyweds in India. This may have implications for the Indian Family Planning Programme, which to date has largely focused on sterilization. Programmes need to include newlywed husbands to promote use of spacing methods.     

Reflections on clinical research in sub-Saharan Africa

The urgent need for new, safe and sustainable interventions against diseases that disproportionally affect the poor is finally receiving global attention and the funding landscape for development projects has significantly improved during the past decade. For the development of new drug and vaccine candidates, clinical trials have become the most important tool to assess their safety and efficacy. Recently, there has been a seismic shift in the number of clinical trials conducted in resource-limited settings. We discuss the current framework of clinical research in sub-Saharan Africa, from building product pipelines to the capacities needed for the conduct of trials according the harmonised Good Clinical Practice (GCP) ICH E6 guideline. We place emphasis on clinical research in neglected tropical diseases which still frequently has to be conducted with limited financial, logistical and human resources. Given those short-comings we recommend minimum standards needed at the local, national and sponsor levels to provide GCP-compliant clinical research.     

Population homeostasis in sub-Saharan Africa

Global population growth remains one of the major challenges of the twenty-first century. This is particularly true for African countries which have been undergoing their demographic transitions. To investigate whether predicted increasing population density and urbanization can help to stabilize African population, we construct a database for 84 georeferenced Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) samples including 947,191 individuals in sub-Saharan Africa and match each location with gridded population density from NASA. We apply a proportional hazard model to evaluate the quantitative impact of local population density on the transitions from childlessness to motherhood, and from celibacy to marriage. Moving from the 5th to the 95th percentile of population density increases the median age at first birth by 2.2 years. This roughly decreases completed fertility by half a child. The same increase in population density increases the median age at first marriage by 3.3 years. These findings contribute to the understanding of why fertility has not dropped in Africa as fast as expected. One part of the answer is that population density remains low. Yet the total effect of increased density on fertility remains limited and counting on it to stabilize the population would be unrealistic.     

Ranking the direct threats to biodiversity in sub-Saharan Africa

Biodiversity and Conservation - Sub-Saharan Africa receives large investments in biodiversity conservation, and if these investments can be concentrated on the highest threats to biodiversity, the...     

Melanin and HIV in sub-Saharan Africa

HIV is common in sub-Saharan Africa. Sexually transmitted bacterial and fungal infections increase the chance of HIV infection. Melanin can prevent the penetration of skin and mucus membranes by microorganisms, and soluble melanin can inhibit HIV replication. We suggest that melanin may reduce the incidence of HIV infection through venereally acquired skin lesions, thus reducing the risk of sero-conversion and slow the progress to AIDS. Indigenous sub-Saharan peoples are highly melanized, but there is pigment variation between populations. We show that skin reflectance, a negative correlate of melanin, is positively associated with adult rate of HIV in sub-Saharan countries. There is no such relationship in populations outside sub-Saharan Africa. We suggest that melanin concentration in black people may correlate with resistance to HIV infection.     

Malaria and urbanization in sub-Saharan Africa

There are already 40 cities in Africa with over 1 million inhabitants and the United Nations Environmental Programme estimates that by 2025 over 800 million people will live in urban areas. Recognizing that malaria control can improve the health of the vulnerable and remove a major obstacle to their economic development, the Malaria Knowledge Programme of the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine and the Systemwide Initiative on Malaria and Agriculture convened a multi-sectoral technical consultation on urban malaria in Pretoria, South Africa from 2nd to 4th December, 2004. The aim of the meeting was to identify strategies for the assessment and control of urban malaria. This commentary reflects the discussions held during the meeting and aims to inform researchers and policy makers of the potential for containing and reversing the emerging problem of urban malaria.     

Biotechnology and sustainable development in sub-Saharan Africa

Whether development is defined by the long-standing economic parameter of per capita gross national product (GNP) or by the newly introduced Human Development Index (HDI), which is not based exclusively on per capita GNP, the countries of sub-Saharan Africa rank at or near the bottom of the developing world. Agriculture and agro-based processing are the mainstays of the economies of the majority of these countries. Because of this, and also because many of the diseases endemic in these countries are communicable, the application of modern biotechnology (including genetic engineering, tissue culture and monoclonal antibody technology) and related biotechnologies could play an important part in creating sustainable development in the region. There is, therefore, an urgent need to train more of the region's indigenous citizens, and to equip more laboratories, in modern biotechnology. It is suggested that, in order to accelerate the harnessing of the fruits of biotechnology, more countries in the region should affiliate with the International Centre for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology (ICGEB). It is further suggested that a regional equivalent of the ICGEB be built and the services of non-governmental biotechnology organizations used.The author is with Nnamdi Azikiwe University, P. M. B. 5025, Awka, Nigeria. Address correspondence to P. M. B. 1457, Enugu, Nigeria     

Data-driven analyses of behavioral strategies to eliminate cysticercosis in sub-Saharan Africa

BackgroundThe multi-host taeniosis/cysticercosis disease system is associated with significant neurological morbidity, as well as economic burden, globally. We investigated whether lower cost behavioral interventions are sufficient for local elimination of human cysticercosis in Boulkiemdé, Sanguié, and Nayala provinces of Burkina Faso.Methodology/Principal findingsProvince-specific data on human behaviors (i.e., latrine use and pork consumption) and serological prevalence of human and pig disease were used to inform a deterministic, compartmental model of the taeniosis/cysticercosis disease system. Parameters estimated via Bayesian melding provided posterior distributions for comparing transmission rates associated with human ingestion of Taenia solium cysticerci due to undercooking and human exposure to T. solium eggs in the environment. Reductions in transmission via these pathways were modeled to determine required effectiveness of a market-focused cooking behavior intervention and a community-led sanitation and hygiene program, independently and in combination, for eliminating human cysticercosis as a public health problem (<1 case per 1000 population). Transmission of cysticerci due to consumption of undercooked pork was found to vary significantly across transmission settings. In Sanguié, the rate of transmission due to undercooking was 6% higher than that in Boulkiemdé (95% CI: 1.03, 1.09; p-value < 0.001) and 35% lower than that in Nayala (95% CI: 0.64, 0.66; p-value < 0.001). We found that 67% and 62% reductions in undercooking of pork consumed in markets were associated with elimination of cysticercosis in Nayala and Sanguié, respectively. Elimination of active cysticercosis in Boulkiemdé required a 73% reduction. Less aggressive reductions of 25% to 30% in human exposure to Taenia solium eggs through sanitation and hygiene programs were associated with elimination in the provinces.Conclusions/SignificanceDespite heterogeneity in effectiveness due to local transmission dynamics and behaviors, education on the importance of proper cooking, in combination with community-led sanitation and hygiene efforts, has implications for reducing morbidity due to cysticercosis and neurocysticercosis.     

Towards control of schistosomiasis in sub-Saharan Africa

Approximately 80% of the 200 million people infected with schistosomiasis inhabit sub-Saharan Africa, and the annual mortality is estimated to be 280,000. Praziquantel is the drug of choice in the treatment of schistosomiasis and pregnant women may now be treated. It was agreed at the World Health Assembly in 2001 that at least 75% of school-aged children in high burden areas should be treated for schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminth infections by 2010 to reduce morbidity. A grant from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation to the Schistosomiasis Control Initiative, Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, London has enabled control programmes to be initiated in Uganda, Tanzania, Zambia, Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali. Additional programmes have recently commenced in Zanzibar with a grant from the Health Foundation to The Natural History Museum, London and in Cameroon. Combination treatment for schistosomiasis, gastrointestinal helminths and filariasis reduces costs of control programmes. The EC Concerted Action Group on 'Praziquantel: its central role in the chemotherapy of schistosome infection' met in Yaoundé Cameroon in 2004 to discuss recent developments in laboratory and field studies. The use of standard operating procedures will enable data on drug action on schistosomes produced in different laboratories to be compared. With the ever increasing use of praziquantel there is a possibility of the development of resistance by schistosomes to the drug, hence the necessity to explore the activities of other compounds. Artemether, unlike praziquantel, is effective against immature schistosomes. The effectiveness of mirazid, an extract of myrrh, is controversial as data from different laboratories are equivocal. It is suggested that an independent body such as the World Health Organization should determine whether mirazid should be used in the treatment of schistosomiasis.     

Prospects for malaria eradication in sub-Saharan Africa

Background

A characteristic of Plasmodium falciparum infections is the gradual acquisition of clinical immunity resulting from repeated exposures to the parasite. While the molecular basis of protection against clinical malaria remains unresolved, its effects on epidemiological patterns are well recognized. Accumulating epidemiological data constitute a valuable resource that must be intensively explored and interpreted as to effectively inform control planning.

Methodology/Principal Finding

Here we apply a mathematical model to clinical data from eight endemic regions in sub-Saharan Africa. The model provides a quantitative framework within which differences in age distribution of clinical disease are assessed in terms of the parameters underlying transmission. The shorter infectious periods estimated for clinical infections induce a regime of bistability of endemic and malaria-free states in regions of mesoendemic transmission. The two epidemiological states are separated by a threshold that provides a convenient measure for intervention design. Scenarios of eradication and resurgence are simulated.

Conclusions/Significance

In regions that support mesoendemic transmission, intervention success depends critically on reducing prevalence below a threshold which separates endemic and malaria-free regimes.     

Anti-malarial market and policy surveys in sub-Saharan Africa

At a recent meeting (Sept 18, 2009) in which reasons for the limited access to artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) in sub-Saharan Africa were discussed, policy and market surveys on anti-malarial drug availability and accessibility in Burundi and Sierra Leone were presented in a highly interactive brainstorming session among key stakeholders across private, public, and not-for-profit sectors. The surveys, the conduct of which directly involved the national malaria control programme managers of the two countries, provides the groundwork for evidence-based policy implementation. The results of the surveys could be extrapolated to other countries with similar socio-demographic and malaria profiles. The meeting resulted in recommendations on key actions to be taken at the global, national, and community level for better ACT accessibility.At the global level, both public and private sectors have actions to take to strengthen policies that lead to the replacement of loose blister packs with fixed-dose ACT products, develop strategies to ban inappropriate anti-malarials and regulate those bans, and facilitate technology and knowledge transfer to scale up production of fixed-dose ACT products, which should be readily available and affordable to those patients who are in the greatest need of these medicines.At the national level, policies that regulate the anti-malarial medicines market should be enacted and enforced. The public sector, including funding donors, should participate in ensuring that the private sector is engaged in the ACT implementation process. Research similar to the surveys discussed is important for other countries to develop and evaluate the right incentives at a local level.At the community level, community outreach and education about appropriate preventive and treatment measures must continue and be strengthened, with service delivery systems developed within both public and private sectors, among other measures, to decrease access to ineffective and inappropriate anti-malarial medicines.What was clear during the meeting is that continuing commitment, strengthened interaction and transparency among various stakeholders, with focus on communities, national governments, and evidence-based policy and action are the only way to sustainably address the control of malaria, a disease which continues to have a significant health and socio-economic impact worldwide, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa.Details on the methodology employed in carrying out the studies discussed at this meeting, as well as more detailed results, data analysis and discussion of the studies are soon to be published.     

The HIV/AIDS epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa

Knowledge useful to the fight against HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa cannot be extrapolated to those coming from industrialized countries. The aim of this article is to review specificities of the African epidemy, in terms of epidiomolgy, natural history, validated therapeutic interventions, and unexplored questions. Far from being without effective tools and research tracks to fight against this plague which decimates a continent, one is above all confronted with a deficit of both mobilization and means.     

Genetic progression and the waiting time to cancer

Cancer results from genetic alterations that disturb the normal cooperative behavior of cells. Recent high-throughput genomic studies of cancer cells have shown that the mutational landscape of cancer is complex and that individual cancers may evolve through mutations in as many as 20 different cancer-associated genes. We use data published by Sjöblom et al. (2006) to develop a new mathematical model for the somatic evolution of colorectal cancers. We employ the Wright-Fisher process for exploring the basic parameters of this evolutionary process and derive an analytical approximation for the expected waiting time to the cancer phenotype. Our results highlight the relative importance of selection over both the size of the cell population at risk and the mutation rate. The model predicts that the observed genetic diversity of cancer genomes can arise under a normal mutation rate if the average selective advantage per mutation is on the order of 1%. Increased mutation rates due to genetic instability would allow even smaller selective advantages during tumorigenesis. The complexity of cancer progression can be understood as the result of multiple sequential mutations, each of which has a relatively small but positive effect on net cell growth.     

The national determinants of deforestation in sub-Saharan Africa

For decades, the dynamics of tropical deforestation in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have defied easy explanation. The rates of deforestation have been lower than elsewhere in the tropics, and the driving forces evident in other places, government new land settlement schemes and industrialized agriculture, have largely been absent in SSA. The context and causes for African deforestation become clearer through an analysis of new, national-level data on forest cover change for SSA countries for the 2000–2005 period. The recent dynamic in SSA varies from dry to wet biomes. Deforestation occurred at faster rates in nations with predominantly dry forests. The wetter Congo basin countries had lower rates of deforestation, in part because tax receipts from oil and mineral industries in this region spurred rural to urban migration, declines in agriculture and increased imports of cereals from abroad. In this respect, the Congo basin countries may be experiencing an oil and mineral fuelled forest transition. Small farmers play a more important role in African deforestation than they do in southeast Asia and Latin America, in part because small-scale agriculture remains one of the few livelihoods open to rural peoples.     

Phylogenetic relationships of human populations in sub-Saharan Africa

This study utilizes the GM/KM immunoglobulin allotype system to elucidate the phylogenetic relationships of sub-Saharan Africans. The importance of understanding the relatedness of these peoples stems from the sub-Saharan region being the possible birthplace of humans. Haplotype distributions were determined for 19 populations and compared using chi-square analysis. Published data of other sub-Saharan Africans and representative populations worldwide were also added for comparison. Genetic distances between populations were calculated based on haplotype frequencies, and genetic relationships were observed through principal components analysis. Data from the GM/KM system showed a genetic homogeneity of the Bantu populations, with some exceptions, supporting the possibility of a common origin of these peoples. The Malagasy appeared as a divergent population, most likely due to Southeast Asian/Austronesian admixture, as indicated by the presence of the GM*AF B haplotype. The Cape Coloured also showed a divergence, with their genetic structures containing Caucasoid and Khoisan contributions. Finally, the Mbuti Pygmies appeared genetically isolated and had the highest frequency of the GM*A B haplotype out of all studied populations.