The effect of the meteorological factors on the Alnus pollen season in Lublin (Poland)

Alder pollen seasons and the effect of meteorological conditions on daily average pollen counts in the air of Lublin (Poland) were analysed. Alnus pollen grains reach very high concentrations in the atmosphere of this city during the early spring period and the parameters of pollen seasons were very different in the particular years studied. The pollen season lasted on average one month. The highest variation was observed for the peak value and the Seasonal Pollen Index (SPI). The pollen seasons, which started later, had shorter duration. Peak daily average pollen counts and SPI value were higher during the shorter seasons. Similarities in the stages of pollen seasons designated by the percentage method depended on the start date of the pollen season. Season parameters were mainly correlated with thermal conditions at the beginning of the year. Regression analysis was used to predict certain characteristics of the alder pollen season. The highest level of explanation of the variation in Alnus pollen season start and peak dates was obtained in the model using mean temperature in February. The obtained regression models may predict 82% of the variation in the pollen season start date, 73% of the variation in the duration, and 62% in the peak date.     

Thirty-four years of pollen monitoring: an evaluation of the temporal variation of pollen seasons in Belgium

For the first time in Belgium, fluctuations in airborne pollen quantities over a 34 years period have been analyzed. Seven pollen types have been selected comprising the most clinically relevant in Belgium nowadays (birch, alder, hazel and grasses) and others that are known to be allergenic in other European countries and frequently found in Belgium (plane, ash and mugwort). Pollen monitoring was performed with a seven-day recording volumetric spore trap placed in Brussels. We measured increasing airborne pollen for four trees, namely alder, hazel, ash and plane. Although the total pollen index for birch has not increased significantly, an increasing trend in the annual amount of days above the concentration threshold of 80 pollen grains/m³ was clearly observed. Concerning temporal variations, the pollen season has tended to end earlier for birch, ash and plane and the peak concentration of the pollen of plane has been appearing earlier in the year. In the investigated period, the pollen seasons of grasses and mugwort have tended to become less severe. Furthermore, we reported a temporal shift of the grass pollen season, beginning and ending earlier, together with an advance of the annual peak date.     

Pollen season and climate: Is the timing of birch pollen release in the UK approaching its limit?

In light of heightened interest in the response of pollen phenology to temperature, we investigated recent changes to the onset of Betula (birch) pollen seasons in central and southern England, including a test of predicted advancement of the Betula pollen season for London. We calculated onset of birch pollen seasons using daily airborne pollen data obtained at London, Plymouth and Worcester, determined trends in the start of the pollen season and compared timing of the birch pollen season with observed temperature patterns for the period 1995–2010. We found no overall change in the onset of birch pollen in the study period although there was evidence that the response to temperature was nonlinear and that a lower asymptotic start of the pollen season may exist. The start of the birch pollen season was strongly correlated with March mean temperature. These results reinforce previous findings showing that the timing of the birch pollen season in the UK is particularly sensitive to spring temperatures. The climate relationship shown here persists over both longer decadal-scale trends and shorter, seasonal trends as well as during periods of ‘sign-switching’ when cooler spring temperatures result in later start dates. These attributes, combined with the wide geographical coverage of airborne pollen monitoring sites, some with records extending back several decades, provide a powerful tool for the detection of climate change impacts, although local site factors and the requirement for winter chilling may be confounding factors.     

Prediction of the birch pollen season characteristics in Cracow, Poland using an 18-year data series

The aim of the study was to construct the model forecasting the birch pollen season characteristics in Cracow on the basis of an 18-year data series. The study was performed using the volumetric method (Lanzoni/Burkard trap). The 98/95 % method was used to calculate the pollen season. The Spearman’s correlation test was applied to find the relationship between the meteorological parameters and pollen season characteristics. To construct the predictive model, the backward stepwise multiple regression analysis was used including the multi-collinearity of variables. The predictive models best fitted the pollen season start and end, especially models containing two independent variables. The peak concentration value was predicted with the higher prediction error. Also the accuracy of the models predicting the pollen season characteristics in 2009 was higher in comparison with 2010. Both, the multi-variable model and one-variable model for the beginning of the pollen season included air temperature during the last 10 days of February, while the multi-variable model also included humidity at the beginning of April. The models forecasting the end of the pollen season were based on temperature in March–April, while the peak day was predicted using the temperature during the last 10 days of March.     

Responses in the start of Betula (birch) pollen seasons to recent changes in spring temperatures across Europe

A shift in the timing of birch pollen seasons is important because it is well known to be a significant aeroallergen, especially in NW Europe where it is a notable cause of hay fever and pollen-related asthma. The research reported in this paper aims to investigate temporal patterns in the start dates of Betula (birch) pollen seasons at selected sites across Europe. In particular it investigates relationships between the changes in start dates and changes in spring temperatures over approximately the last 20 years. Daily birch pollen counts were used from Kevo, Turku, London, Brussels, Zurich and Vienna, for the core period from 1982 to 1999 and, in some cases, from 1970 to 2000. The sites represent a range of biogeographical situations from just within the Arctic Circle through to North West Maritime and Continental Europe. Pollen samples were taken with Hirst-type volumetric spore traps. Weather data were obtained from the sites nearest to the pollen traps. The timing of birch pollen seasons is known to depend mostly on a non-linear balance between the winter chilling required to break dormancy, and spring temperatures. Pollen start dates and monthly mean temperatures for January through to May were compiled to 5-year running means to examine trends. The start dates for the next 10 years were calculated from regression equations for each site, on the speculative basis that the current trends would continue. The analyses show regional contrasts. Kevo shows a marked trend towards cooler springs and later starts. If this continues the mean start date will become about 6 days later over the next 10 years. Turku exhibits cyclic patterns in start dates. A current trend towards earlier starts is expected to continue until 2007, followed by another fluctuation. London, Brussels, Zurich and Vienna show very similar patterns in the trends towards earlier start dates. If the trend continues the mean start dates at these sites will advance by about 6 days over the next 10 years. Following this work, amendments will be needed to pollen calendars and local predictive models. It will also be important to assess the implications of earlier seasons for allergy sufferers.     

Comparison of airborne herb pollen types in Córdoba (Southwestern Spain) and Poznan (Western Poland)

This study sought to compare airborne pollen counts for a number of common herbaceous species (Plantago, Chenopodiaceae–Amaranthaceae, Rumex, and Urticaceae) in two cities with differing weather conditions, Córdoba (Southwestern Spain) and Poznan (Western Poland). Pollen seasons for these species were studied from 1995 to 2005. Aerobiological sampling was performed using a Hirst type 7-day spore trap, in accordance with the procedure developed by the European Aerobiology Network. A Spearman correlation test was used to test for correlations between meteorological parameters and daily airborne pollen counts. The Spearman correlation test and the Wilcoxon signed ranks test were also used to compare mean daily pollen counts for the two study sites. In Córdoba, the pollen season generally started around two months earlier than in Poznan, and also lasted longer. These findings were attributed to the presence of a larger number of species in Córdoba, with overlapping pollen seasons, and also to more favorable weather conditions. Trends in pollen season start dates were fairly stable over the study period, with a slight tendency to delayed onset in Córdoba and a modest advance in start date in Poznan. The pollen season end date also remained reasonably stable over the study, with only a slight tendency for the season to end earlier in Córdoba and later in Poznan. A clear trend towards declining annual pollen counts was recorded over the study period for all pollen types in both cities.     

Exploring the spatio-temporal relationship between two key aeroallergens and meteorological variables in the United Kingdom

Constructing accurate predictive models for grass and birch pollen in the air, the two most important aeroallergens, for areas with variable climate conditions such as the United Kingdom, require better understanding of the relationships between pollen count in the air and meteorological variables. Variations in daily birch and grass pollen counts and their relationship with daily meteorological variables were investigated for nine pollen monitoring sites for the period 2000–2010 in the United Kingdom. An active pollen count sampling method was employed at each of the monitoring stations to sample pollen from the atmosphere. The mechanism of this method is based on the volumetric spore traps of Hirst design (Hirst in Ann Appl Biol 39(2):257–265, 1952). The pollen season (start date, finish date) for grass and birch were determined using a first derivative method. Meteorological variables such as daily rainfall; maximum, minimum and average temperatures; cumulative sum of Sunshine duration; wind speed; and relative humidity were related to the grass and birch pollen counts for the pre-peak, post peak and the entire pollen season. The meteorological variables were correlated with the pollen count data for the following temporal supports: same-day, 1-day prior, 1-day mean prior, 3-day mean prior, 7-day mean prior. The direction of influence (positive/negative) of meteorological variables on pollen count varied for birch and grass, and also varied when the pollen season was treated as a whole season, or was segmented into the pre-peak and post-peak seasons. Maximum temperature, sunshine duration and rainfall were the most important variables influencing the count of grass pollen in the atmosphere. Both maximum temperature (pre-peak) and sunshine produced a strong positive correlation, and rain produced a strong negative correlation with grass pollen count in the air. Similarly, average temperature, wind speed and rainfall were the most important variables influencing the count of birch pollen in the air. Both wind speed and rain produced a negative correlation with birch pollen count in the air and average temperature produced a positive correlation.     

On impact of transport conditions on variability of the seasonal pollen index

This discussion paper reveals the contribution of pollen transport conditions to the inter-annual variability of the seasonal pollen index (SPI). This contribution is quantified as a sensitivity of the pollen model predictions to meteorological variability and is shown to be a noticeable addition to the SPI variability caused by plant reproduction cycles. A specially designed SILAM model re-analysis of pollen seasons 1980–2014 was performed, resulting in the 35 years of the SPI predictions over Europe, which was used to compute the SPI inter-annual variability. The current paper presents the results for birch and grass. Throughout the re-analysis, the source term formulations and habitation maps were kept constant, which allowed attributing the obtained variability exclusively to the pollen release and transport conditions during the flowering seasons. It is shown that the effect is substantial: it amounts to 10–20% (grass) and 20–40% (birch) of the observed SPI year-to-year changes reported in the literature. The phenomenon has well-pronounced spatial- and species-specific patterns. The findings were compared with observation-based statistical models for the SPI prediction, showing that such models highlight the same processes as the analysis with the SILAM model.     

Climate change effect on Betula (birch) and Quercus (oak) pollen seasons in the United States

Climatic change is expected to affect the spatiotemporal patterns of airborne allergenic pollen, which has been found to act synergistically with common air pollutants, such as ozone, to cause allergic airway disease (AAD). Observed airborne pollen data from six stations from 1994 to 2011 at Fargo (North Dakota), College Station (Texas), Omaha (Nebraska), Pleasanton (California), Cherry Hill and Newark (New Jersey) in the US were studied to examine climate change effects on trends of annual mean and peak value of daily concentrations, annual production, season start, and season length of Betula (birch) and Quercus (oak) pollen. The growing degree hour (GDH) model was used to establish a relationship between start/end dates and differential temperature sums using observed hourly temperatures from surrounding meteorology stations. Optimum GDH models were then combined with meteorological information from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and land use land coverage data from the Biogenic Emissions Land use Database, version 3.1 (BELD3.1), to simulate start dates and season lengths of birch and oak pollen for both past and future years across the contiguous US (CONUS). For most of the studied stations, comparison of mean pollen indices between the periods of 1994–2000 and 2001–2011 showed that birch and oak trees were observed to flower 1–2 weeks earlier; annual mean and peak value of daily pollen concentrations tended to increase by 13.6 %–248 %. The observed pollen season lengths varied for birch and for oak across the different monitoring stations. Optimum initial date, base temperature, and threshold GDH for start date was found to be 1 March, 8 °C, and 1,879 h, respectively, for birch; 1 March, 5 °C, and 4,760 h, respectively, for oak. Simulation results indicated that responses of birch and oak pollen seasons to climate change are expected to vary for different regions.     

Trends in grass pollen season in southern Spain

The main characteristics of Poaceae pollen season at 8 sites in Andalusia were studied. Special attention was paid in the trends of grass pollen-season start and peak dates. Moreover, we analyse the intensity of the grass pollen season over the study period as well as potential temporal and spatial patterns in these data. Statistical analysis was performed to determine the possible influence of weather-related parameters on variations in the grass pollen season. Main results show an advance in the start and peak of grass pollen season and an increase in the annual Pollen Index and in the severity of the season (days > 25 pollen grains/m³). The future consequences of these changes in grass phenology could be related with changes in land use and also in pollinosis symptoms due to the higher concentrations recorded but also to the variations on pollen season dates.     

Long distance pollen transport cause problems for determining the timing of birch pollen season in Fennoscandia by using phenological observations

The male flowering and leaf bud burst of birch take place almost simultaneously, suggesting that the observations of leaf bud burst could be used to determine the timing of birch pollen release. However, long‐distance transport of birch pollen before the onset of local flowering may complicate the utilization of phenological observations in pollen forecasting.

We compared the timing of leaf bud burst of silver birch with the timing of the stages of birch pollen season during an eight year period (1997–2004) at five sites in Finland. The stages of the birch pollen season were defined using four different thresholds: 1) the first date of the earliest three‐day period with airborne birch pollen counts exceeding 10 grains m^?3 air; and the dates when the accumulated pollen sum reaches 2) 5%; 3) 50% and 4) 95% of the annual total. Atmospheric modelling was used to determine the source areas for the observed long‐distance transported pollen, and the exploitability of phenological observations in pollen forecasting was evaluated.

Pair‐wise comparisons of means indicate that the timing of leaf bud burst fell closest to the date when the accumulated pollen sum reached 5% of the annual total, and did not differ significantly from it at any site (p<0.05; Student‐Newman‐Keuls test). It was found that the timing of leaf bud burst of silver birch overlaps with the first half of the main birch pollen season. However, phenological observations alone do not suffice to determine the timing of the main birch pollen season because of long‐distance transport of birch pollen.     

Statistical modeling,forecasting and time series analysis of birch phenology in Montreal,Canada

The aim of this study was to analyse birch pollen time series observed in Montreal (Canada) in order to understand the link between inter-annual variability of phenology and environmental factors and to build predictive models for the upcoming pollen season. Modeling phenology is challenging, especially in Canada, where phenological observations are rare. Nevertheless, understanding phenology is required for scientific applications (e.g. inputs to numerical models of pollen dispersion) but also to help allergy sufferers to better prepare their medication and avoidance strategies before the start of the pollen season. We used multivariate statistical regression to analyse and predict phenology. The predictors were drawn from a large basin (over 60) of potential environmental predictors including meteorological data and global climatic indices such NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation index) and ENSO/MEI (Multivariate Enso Index). Results of this paper are summarized as follows: (1) an accurate forecast for the upcoming season starting date of the birch pollen season was obtained (showing low bias and total forecast error of about 4 days in Montreal), (2) NAO and ENSO/MEI indices were found to be well correlated (i.e. 44% of the variance explained) with birch phenology, (3) a long-term trend of 2.6 days per decade (p < 0.1) towards longer season duration was found for the length of the birch pollen season in Montreal. Finally, perturbations of the quasi-biennial cycle of birch were observed in the pollen data during the pollen season following the Great Ice Storm of 1998 which affected south-eastern Canada.     

Airborne pollen characteristics and the influence of temperature and precipitation in Raleigh,North Carolina,USA (1999–2012)

The incidence of allergic diseases has been increasing in recent decades, in part due to increased exposure to aeroallergens, particularly pollen. Allergic diseases have a major burden on the health care system, with annual costs in the USA alone exceeding $30 billion. There is evidence that the production of aeroallergens, including pollen, is increasing in response to environmental and climatic change, which has important implications for the treatment of allergy sufferers. In this study, pollen data from a Rotorod sampler in Raleigh, North Carolina, was used to characterize and examine trends in the atmospheric pollen seasons for trees, grasses, and weeds over the period 1999–2012. The influence of mean monthly antecedent and concurrent temperature and precipitation on the timing, duration, and severity of the pollen seasons was assessed using Pearson’s product-moment correlation coefficients and multiple linear regression models. An increasing trend was noted in seasonal tree pollen concentrations, while seasonal and peak weed pollen concentrations declined over time. The atmospheric pollen seasons for grasses and weeds trended toward earlier start dates and longer durations, while the tree pollen season trended toward an earlier end date. Peak daily tree pollen concentrations were strongly associated with antecedent temperature and precipitation, while peak daily grass pollen concentrations were strongly associated with concurrent precipitation. The strongest relationships between climate and weed pollen were associated with the timing and duration of the pollen season, with drier antecedent and warmer concurrent conditions tied to longer weed pollen seasons.     

Forecasting the onset of the grass pollen season in Melbourne (Australia)

In Melbourne, a southern hemisphere city with a cool temperate climate, the grass pollen season has been monitored using a Burkard spore trap for 12 years (11 pollen seasons, which extend from October through January). The onset of the grass pollen season (OGPS) has been defined in various ways using both arbitrary cumulative scores (Sum 75, Sum 100) and percentages (10% Pollen Fly). OGPS, based on the forecast model of pollen season devised by Lejoly-Gabriel (Acta Geogr. Lovan., 13 (1978) 1–260) has been most widely used in efforts to forecast the beginning of the pollen season. OGPS occurred in Melbourne between 20 October to 24 November (average 6 November), a difference of 35 days. Duration of the pollen season ranged from 46 to 81 days, with a mean of 55 days, one of the longest reported. The relationships between onset and various weather parameters for July have enabled us to modify a model, using linear regression analysis, to predict onset. The prediction model is based on a negative correlation between date of onset and the sum of rainfall for July (a winter month). The error of prediction (Ep) is 24% and predicted day of OGPS was precisely predicted on 2 occasions, and on others with a range of accuracy of 3 to 14 days.     

Variations and trends of birch pollen seasons during 15 years (1996–2010) in relation to weather conditions in Poznań (western Poland)

Birch (Betula) pollen seasons were examined in relation to meteorological conditions in Poznań (1996–2010). Birch pollen grains were collected using a volumetric spore trap. An alternate biennial cycle of birch pollen season intensity was noticed in Poznań. The main factors influencing birch pollen season intensity were average daily minimum temperatures during the second fortnight of May and the month of June one year before pollination as well as the intensity of the pollen season of the previous year. Most of the pollen grains are recorded during the first week of the season; the number of pollen grains recorded at this time is positively correlated with mean maximum temperature and negatively correlated with daily rainfall. The significant effect of rainfall in reducing the season pollen index was noticed only during weak pollen seasons (season pollen index <?mean). In addition, mean daily maximum temperature during the first two weeks of the birch pollen season markedly influences its duration. No significant trends in duration and intensity of the pollen season were recorded, however, a slight tendency towards early pollination was observed (?0.4 days/year, p?=?0.310).     

Differences in atmospheric trees pollen seasons in winter, spring and summer in two European geographic areas, Spain and Italy

The global climate change reported over recent years may prompt changes in the atmospheric pollen season (APS). The aim of this study is to evaluate the possible impact provoked by meteorological conditions variations at different seasons of the year or different geographical areas on APS. Alnus, Betula and Castanea atmospheric pollen seasons and trends during the last 17 years at Ourense and Vigo (Galicia—NW Spain) and Perugia (Italy) were analysed. Possible incidence of the meteorological trends observed in the different cities on the atmospheric pollen seasons and the chill and heat requirements were evaluated. Pollen data from Ourense, Vigo and Perugia (1995–2011) were used. Pollen sampling was performed using LANZONI VPPS 2000 volumetric traps (Hirst in Ann Appl Biol 36:257–265, 1952), placed on top of different buildings at a similar height from the ground. Several methods, dates and threshold temperatures for determining the chill and heat requirements needed to trigger flowering were tested. Different temporary order in the pollination sequence was observed between the three pollen types studied in the three sites. Alnus flowers few days in advance in Ourense respecting to Vigo and 1 month earlier than Perugia. The Betula flowering start date in Ourense and Vigo is almost simultaneous, taking place only 5 days in advance with respect to Perugia. Finally, scarce differences in the APS onset of Castanea were detected between the three cities. The variations observed among the two areas (Umbria, Italy and Galicia, Spain) in the onset of pollen season in the winter or spring flowering trees could be explained by differences in the thermal requirements needed for flowering as consequence of the climatic conditions recorded during the previous period to flowering. The length of the chilling and heat period as well as the thermal requirements obtained showed differences between geographical areas. The chill requirements accumulated were higher in Perugia than Ourense and Vigo. By contrary, the lowest heat accumulation was achieved in Perugia. The observed trends in the APS characteristics and the weather-related parameters were not homogeneous both in the pollen types and sites. The pollen index of Betula and Castanea pollen in Ourense shows a significant trend to increase.     

Development of a symptom load index: enabling temporal and regional pollen season comparisons and pointing out the need for personalized pollen information

This study describes the development of an index, the symptom load index, to compare the severity of pollen seasons for pollen allergy sufferers during different seasons in different geographical regions. This is done by comparing symptom data with pollen data. This study is based on symptom data of the Patients’ Hayfever Diary (PHD) and on pollen data from the European Aeroallergen Network (EAN). The PHD allows objective assessment of the season severity. Season length calculated on the basis of pollen data from the EAN and all records of users in a specific region are included in calculation of the symptom load index. It is thus not influenced by pollen counts during the season. Its application to pollen seasons of the three important pollen types birch, grass and ragweed in Austria and Germany from 2009 to 2013 proved that the impact of a pollen season on allergy sufferers is not correlated with total pollen loads. The possibility to calculate the pollen season in the allergy sufferers’ point of view is a novelty that inaugurates new pathways for the future of pollen information. Furthermore, such an index will be of value for the establishment of personalized pollen information and for calculations of pollen thresholds.     

A comparative study of airborne pollen concentrations of three allergenic types

Airborne concentrations of pollen from Betula (birch), Poaceae (grasses) and Artemisia (mugwort) are compared during a seven year period (90–96) with respect to both quantitative and seasonal aspects, at three different sampling sites, one in Estonia (Tartu) and two in Sweden (Stockholm and Roma on the island of Gotland). All three taxa occur in the region and are well‐known causes of allergic sensitisation. The annual total and peak values of birch, grass and mugwort pollen were found to be much higher in Tartu than in Stockholm and Roma. Both the birch and the grass pollen seasons ended later in Stockholm than in Roma and Tartu. The mugwort flowering season always began earlier in Stockholm than at the other sites, and more days elapsed between start day and peak day in Stockholm than in Tartu.     

A satellite-based map of onset of birch (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Betula</Emphasis>) flowering in Norway

Birch (Betula pubescens L.) is by far the most common deciduous tree in Norway and birch forests define the forest line both northwards and upwards. Because of its mountainous topography, long fjords, and long length from north to south, Norway is climatically and ecologically very diverse. Therefore, developing pollen forecasts in Norway is a challenging task. In this study we use MODIS-NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) satellite data with 250 m spatial resolution and 16-days time resolution for the period 2000–2007, and birch pollen counts from ten Burkad traps distributed throughout Norway, to characterize the onset of birch flowering in Norway. Four of the seven trap stations with long-term series show significant values at the 5% level or better between the MODIS-NDVI defined onset and the date when the annual accumulated birch pollen sum reaches 2.5% of the annual total. A map of Norway that shows the eight-year mean (2000–2007) onset of birch flowering was produced. It reveals large differences in the timing of the onset of birch flowering along the north–south and altitude gradients. The map provides useful general information that can be utilized by the Norwegian pollen forecast service. This study shows that remote sensing is a useful tool for not only characterizing the onset of the birch pollen season but also revealing regional differences not easily detected by pollen stations alone.     

The role of Late Holocene climate variability in the expansion of yellow birch in the western Great Lakes region

Abstract. Pollen records from the western Great Lakes region of North America show substantial increases in birch pollen percentages during the late Holocene. The vegetational and population dynamics underlying the birch increase have received little attention, in part because of the inability to discriminate among species of birch based on pollen morphology. We used analyses of pollen and plant macrofossils from four lakes in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan to document that the birch pollen increase represents a regional expansion of yellow birch ( Betula alleghaniensis ) populations, which was initiated c . 4500 years ago. Whether yellow birch invaded the region at this time or simply expanded from small, previously established populations is not clear, although it probably did not grow near our study sites before the expansion. The initial expansion occurred during an independently documented period of high moisture and high water levels in Lake Michigan. A subsequent expansion in yellow birch abundance and distribution occurred c . 3000 years ago, coinciding with a second period of increased moisture and high lake-levels. The yellow birch expansion may have been modulated by millennial-scale climate variability, with most rapid expansion occurring during relatively wet periods.