Quantitative forecasting of olive yield in Northern Portugal using a bioclimatic model

In this work the objective was to develop a bioclimatic model to forecast olive yield based on airborne pollen, soil water content, and favourable conditions for phytopathological attacks. Olive airborne pollen was sampled from 1998 to 2006 using Cour traps installed in the Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro region, in the provinces of Valença do Douro and Vila Nova de Foz-Côa. Meteorological data from a meteorological station located in Pinhão, near the pollen samplers, was used to calculate other independent variables. According to the bioclimatic model, at the flowering stage 63% of regional olive production can be predicted from the regional pollen index, with an average deviation between observed and predicted production of 10%. The variable soil water content enabled an increase in forecasting accuracy of about 30%, and a reduction in the average deviation between observed and predicted production of 6%. The final regression with all three variables tested showed that the bioclimatic model was able to predict the annual variability of regional olive fruit production with an accuracy of 97%, the average deviation between observed and predicted production being 3% for internal validation and 6% for external validation.     

Improving early-season estimates of olive production using airborne pollen multi-sampling sites

The aim of this study was to improve the accuracy of aeropalynological models to forecast yields in areas with heterogeneous characteristics by applying principal component analysis to integrate the airborne pollen sampled from more than one trap. The sampling was performed during the past seven years (1998–2004) in the main northeast olive regions of Portugal. Annual crop production was forecasted on the basis of airborne pollen concentration measured at flowering, comparing the performance of three different independent variables: total airborne pollen concentration sampled in each trap and a derived variable that was determined by principal component analysis of the total airborne pollen concentration sampled. The best predictive results were obtained using a logarithmic relationship with airborne pollen concentration principal component scores describing about 97% of olive fruit production variability over the last seven years. The use of this technique improved the ability of pollen to explain the production interannual variations by about 13%. The comparison between actual reported and the adjusted production showed an average spread deviation of 5%.     

Aerobiological and meteorological factors’ influence on olive (Olea europaea L.) crop yield in Castilla-La Mancha (Central Spain)

Knowledge of the main biological and climate factors influencing final harvest is becoming increasingly necessary in order to obtain reliable crop estimates and, thus, ensure optimised, effective private crop management. This knowledge is also of great value to public agricultural institutions for the planning of government subsidies. Castilla-La Mancha (Central Spain) is the second largest olive-oil-producing region in Spain, the highest olive-oil-producing country in the world. This study sought to identify the main factors influencing olive fruit production in this region, including atmospheric pollen as an index of flowering intensity, and meteorological data over the flowering and fruiting seasons in two main olive-producing provinces of the region: Ciudad Real and Toledo. Statistical analysis indicated that the annual pollen index (PI) was the variable influencing most the final olive crop in both provinces. The maximum temperature in March was the meteorological variable affecting most the annual olive crop. Also, the rainfall registered in October influences the final fruit production. The integration of aerobiological and meteorological data represents an important step forward in the development of future crop forecasting models in the region of Castilla-La Mancha.     

Does a heavy fruit crop reduce the tree ring increment? Results from a 12-year study in a subalpine zone

Life history theory posits that an increased investment in reproduction should result in decreased vegetative investment. Switching resources from growth to reproduction are also expected in species experiencing selection pressure for high variation of seed crops. In this study, we tested whether the reproductive effort of trees, measured as the number of fruits produced, is related to their radial growth increment. We examined a population of Sorbus aucuparia, a fleshy-fruited tree species with highly variable interannual individual fruit production growing in the subalpine zone and under strong selection pressure from pre-dispersal seed predators. We used 12-year data to test the relationship between fruit crop and radial growth increments in current, previous and subsequent years, and found no trade-off between growth and reproduction. For almost all trees, there was no correlation between fruit crop and radial growth increment in the same year or next year. Only a few trees showed a positive correlation between fruit crop and previous-year growth. In the statistics, we took advantage of the high variability of individual fruit crops in high production years. In four heavy crop years, we compared the radial growth increments of trees with heavy crops with those of trees with low fruit crops. Current and next-year radial growth did not differ between trees with low and high fruit crops. In all those years, however, trees having heavy fruit crops had higher previous-year growth increments. We suggest that the harsh subalpine weather conditions account for the lack of a trade-off between growth and reproduction in the studied population.     

Proximity to forest edge does not affect crop production despite pollen limitation

A decline in pollination function has been linked to agriculture expansion and intensification. In northwest Argentina, pollinator visits to grapefruit, a self-compatible but pollinator-dependent crop, decline by approximately 50% at 1km from forest edges. We evaluated whether this decrease in visitation also reduces the pollination service in this crop. We analysed the quantity and quality of pollen deposited on stigmas, and associated limitation of fruit production at increasing distances (edge: 10, 100, 500 and 1000m) from the remnants of Yungas forest. We also examined the quantitative and qualitative efficiency of honeybees as pollen vectors. Pollen receipt and pollen tubes in styles decreased with increasing distance from forest edge; however, this decline did not affect fruit production. Supplementation of natural pollen with self- and cross-pollen revealed that both pollen quantity and quality limited fruit production. Despite pollen limitation, honeybees cannot raise fruit production because they often do not deposit sufficient high-quality pollen per visit to elicit fruit development. However, declines in visitation frequency well below seven visits during a flower's lifespan could decrease production beyond current yields. In this context, the preservation of forest remnants, which act as pollinator sources, could contribute to resilience in crop production. Like wild plants, pollen limitation of the yield among animal-pollinated crops may be common and indicative not only of pollinator scarcity, but also of poor pollination quality, whereby pollinator efficiency, rather than just abundance, can play a broader role than previously appreciated.     

Pollen load size, reproductive success, and progeny kinship of naturally pollinated flowers of the tropical dry forest tree Pachira quinata (Bombacaceae)

Several studies have demonstrated, using controlled pollinations, that the number and identity of pollen grains deposited onto a flower's stigma affect the reproductive success of plants. However, few studies have shown this relationship under conditions of natural pollination. Using the tropical dry forest tree Pachira quinata, we evaluated the relationship between the number of microgametophytes per pistil and the number of sires with respect to the production of fruits and seeds in a natural population of Pachira quinata. Our study demonstrates that fruit and seed production are directly related to the number of microgametophytes per pistil in natural populations of P. quinata. Only 6% of the marked flowers developed into mature fruits and 10% of the marked flowers initiated fruits but later aborted them. A mean of 23 pollen grains were required to produce a seed. Flowers with >400 pollen grains on the stigma always developed into mature fruits, whereas flowers that received <200 grains never matured fruits. Half of the pollen grains transferred to a flower stigma germinated and developed pollen tubes to the base of the style. The number of pollen grains on a stigma explained 34% of the variation in seed number per fruit, and the number of seeds produced per fruit is positively correlated with the size of the seeds. The population of P. quinata studied is predominantly outcrossing, and seeds within fruits are sired by one or a few donors. The total seed crop within trees was sired by three to five donors. Our study examined the implications of the variation in size of microgametophyte loads per pistil with respect to the breeding system and the paternity of progeny under natural conditions. The competitive ability of pollen and pollen tube attrition are important factors regulating fruit production in P. quinata.     

Pollination and resource limitation as interacting constraints on almond fruit set

• Pollination and resource availability are factors determining reproductive success of plants, and in agriculture these factors influence yield of fruit‐bearing crops. Our understanding of the importance of crop pollination is fast improving, but less is known about how the interaction between pollination and resources constrains fruit production.
• We conducted an experiment with almond trees (Prunus dulcis) to examine how the number of flowers, light availability and competition for resources affected nut (fruit) production on individual spurs (fruit‐bearing structures) exposed to open‐pollination or hand‐pollination.
• We found a positive relationship between flower number and nut number on spurs with up to four flowers, but no further benefit after four flowers, suggesting a resource threshold expressed by individual spurs. Spurs with few flowers increased the conversion rate of flowers to nuts when supplemented with hand‐pollination, but spurs with more flowers were more likely to achieve the threshold number of nuts even under open‐pollination. Our experiment included a further treatment involving spraying whole trees with pollen. This treatment reduced nut production by spurs with many flowers and high light availability, suggesting competition is experienced by well‐resourced spurs when resources need to be shared among developing nuts across the whole tree.
• Our study supports the hypothesis that excess flower production in fruit trees increases the potential for fruit production when pollinator and resource availability is variable (bet‐hedging). Spurs with more flowers typically produce more nuts (within a limited range), but only if both resources and pollen supply increase with flower number. For almond growers, a focus on maintaining high flower numbers, especially in high light regions of the canopy, is the foundation for high levels of production. Strategies to lift flower number and light are complicated by trade‐offs inherent in tree architecture and orchard design. However, fruit set would be lifted above that achieved by current practice by an increase in the pollination rate of flowers.

     

FLOWERING,SEX RATIOS,POLLEN-OVULE RATIOS,FRUIT SET,AND REPRODUCTIVE EFFORT OF A DIOECIOUS TREE,MYRISTICA INSIPIDA (MYRISTICACEAE), IN TWO DIFFERENT RAIN FOREST COMMUNITIES

The flowering of Myristica insipida R. Br. was studied in two rain forest communities in northern Queensland. This dioecious, subcanopy tree had a male-biased sex ratio at both study sites. In the lowland population the male-bias could be attributed to males (trees producing staminate flowers) starting to flower at a smaller average size than females (trees producing pistillate flowers). There were no intersexual differences in spacing or distribution within the study sites. Males trees flowered earlier, flowered longer, and produced over twice as many flowers as females during the study season. Although the onset of flowering was rather variable, 18–22 days following heavy rains, most trees had a synchronous period of maximum flowering. Pollination manipulations determined that there was no fruit development without pollination, and that increasing pollen loads resulted in increased fruit set with diminishing effect. Taking into account the sex-ratios and intersexual differences in flower production, the pollen-ovule ratio was calculated to be 16,000–19,000. Male trees were found to expend more energy on flowering than female trees. Open-pollination resulted in 1.0% of female flowers setting fruit. The much greater cost of fruit production resulted in females expending 421% more energy on reproduction than males. Fruit and seed production were judged to be pollination-limited. Nonetheless, this species exhibited several characteristics that are predicted if dioecy evolved by means of sexual selection.     

Sexual dimorphism and fruit production in a dioecious understory tree,Ilex opaca Ait.

Summary This study suggested that sexual selection is potentially an important factor in the maintenance of dioecy in the American holly, Ilex opaca (Aquifoliaceae). Sexual dimorphisms in flower production and phenology were highly significant in this understory tree. On average, individual males produced 7.4 times as many flowers as did female trees. Staminate flowers lasted only a single day, whereas pistillate flowers lasted 3–4 days, during which they showed no significant decline in their ability to produce fruit after pollination. Individual male trees opened their flower buds asynchronously during the season, maximizing the number of days they were in flower. Individual females opened their buds more synchronously, maximizing their floral display at one point in time. Females produced fruits in numbers that were somewhat less than proportional to their flower production. Fruit development was initiated from only 38.9% and 69.5% of pistillate flowers in 1987 and 1988, respectively. By the time of ripening, an average female had lost 62.3%, 24.3%, and 11.1% of its initial fruit crop in 1986, 1987, and 1988, respectively. The proportion of fruit lost in 1986 was independent of the number of fruit that initially began development. In 1988, artifically supplementing pollen to a large number of flowers failed to increase either fruit or seed production relative to control branches with unsupplemented flowers. This suggested that resource levels were likely more important than pollen availability in limiting female reproductive success. These observations on I. opaca were consistent with the expectations for a population in which male reproductive success continues to benefit from continued pollinator service and female reproductive success does not.     

Fruit production is influenced by tree size and size‐asymmetric crowding in a wet tropical forest

In tropical forest communities, seedling recruitment can be limited by the number of fruit produced by adults. Fruit production tends to be highly unequal among trees of the same species, which may be due to environmental factors. We observed fruit production for ~2,000 trees of 17 species across 3 years in a wet tropical forest in Costa Rica. Fruit production was modeled as a function of tree size, nutrient availability, and neighborhood crowding. Following model selection, tree size and neighborhood crowding predicted both the probability of reproduction and the number of fruit produced. Nutrient availability only predicted only the probability of reproduction. In all species, larger trees were more likely to be reproductive and produce more fruit. In addition, number of fruit was strongly negatively related to presence of larger neighboring trees in 13 species; presence of all neighboring trees had a weak‐to‐moderate negative influence on reproductive status in 16 species. Among various metrics of soil nutrient availability, only sum of base cations was positively associated with reproductive status, and for only four species. Synthesis Overall, these results suggest that direct influences on fruit production tend to be mediated through tree size and crowding from neighboring trees, rather than soil nutrients. However, we found variation in the effects of neighbors and nutrients among species; mechanistic studies of allocation to fruit production are needed to explain these differences.     

Mechanisms inducing spatially extended synchrony in mast seeding: The role of pollen coupling and environmental fluctuation

Trees in mature forests often show intermittent reproduction. Intensive flowering and seed production occur only once in several years (mast seeding), often synchronized over a long distance. Recently, coupled map models for the dynamics of individual energy reserves have been adopted to explain the phenomena. Even in a constant environment, the trees show a large between-year fluctuation in seed crops and the reproduction can be synchronized over the whole forest if the fruit production is limited by the availability of outcross pollen (pollen coupling). The model with local coupling in which trees are coupled by pollen exchange only with the neighbors shows that a strong synchronization of tree reproduction can develop over the whole forest that may be orders of magnitude larger than the distance of direct pollen exchange between trees. However, their fluctuation is close to the period-two oscillation, and is unable to explain observed intermittent reproduction of a longer interval between mast years. Finally the effect of common environmental fluctuation experienced by different individuals is studied, when the annual productivity and the reproductive threshold of trees fluctuate between years. In the absence of pollen limitation, environmental fluctuation correlated strongly between individuals (Moran effect) failed to produce a high positive correlation in seed production between individuals. If both pollen limitation and correlated environmental fluctuation are at work, a significantly large correlation was maintained. Hence, both pollen coupling and common environmental fluctuation are needed to explain synchronized reproduction with intervals longer than 2years.     

Gene flow in pollen in commercial almond orchards

 Honeybee-assisted gene flow by pollen is of enormous benefit to world food production. Molecular genetic markers were used to detect the pollen-contributing parent in embryos of seeds after fruit set and, subsequently, to deduce the direction and distance of gene flow by pollen as assisted by bees in an almond orchard. It was shown that gene flow by pollen resulting in nut set takes place most strongly between neighbouring sides of adjacent cross-compatible pairs of trees. Examination of pellets extracted from pollen traps fitted to hives for the isozyme markers showed that most of the pellets were composed of pollen from only one cultivar or another, in accord with the hypothesis that the honeybee predominantly visits only one cultivar, either single trees or along rows of one cultivar, and that cross-pollination results from accidental or rare visits involving two cultivars. The results suggest that orchards should be designed to bring cross-compatible pairs of cultivars as close together as possible. Received: 26 April 1996 / Revision accepted: 16 August 1996     

Prediction of the birch pollen season characteristics in Cracow, Poland using an 18-year data series

The aim of the study was to construct the model forecasting the birch pollen season characteristics in Cracow on the basis of an 18-year data series. The study was performed using the volumetric method (Lanzoni/Burkard trap). The 98/95 % method was used to calculate the pollen season. The Spearman’s correlation test was applied to find the relationship between the meteorological parameters and pollen season characteristics. To construct the predictive model, the backward stepwise multiple regression analysis was used including the multi-collinearity of variables. The predictive models best fitted the pollen season start and end, especially models containing two independent variables. The peak concentration value was predicted with the higher prediction error. Also the accuracy of the models predicting the pollen season characteristics in 2009 was higher in comparison with 2010. Both, the multi-variable model and one-variable model for the beginning of the pollen season included air temperature during the last 10 days of February, while the multi-variable model also included humidity at the beginning of April. The models forecasting the end of the pollen season were based on temperature in March–April, while the peak day was predicted using the temperature during the last 10 days of March.     

树木花期预报的花芽形态测量法研究——以大山樱花期预报为例

树木花期预报在林果、养蜂、园林和旅游业等方面有很大的实用价值。该文以大山樱(Prunus sargentii)为例,探讨通过花芽形态测量进行花期预报的新方法。通过1998~2000年对北京玉渊潭公园大山樱进行的数据采集和处理,建立了线性和指数两种预报模型。2002年的试报检验表明,采用3株的观测数据,并利用3日滑动平均的方法,对观测数据进行处理后所作的预报,误差在3 d以内的预报达80%以上;2003年连续测报的平均误差,模型1为1.6 d,模型2为2.1 d。这一树木花期预报的物候学新方法,简便易行、建模周期短、预报精度高,在春季芽膨大后,直至露瓣期之前,可以逐日连续发布预报。     

Seed germination patterns of Salvia mellifera in fire-prone environments

Summary I examined the effects of pollen loads containing pollen from one, three and five donors on fruit production and fruit quality in Campsis radicans. Number of pollen donors had no significant effect on % fruit production, seed number, seed weight or seed germination. In singledonor pollinations the identity of the donor did have a strong effect on the above parameters. Furthermore, the best single donor sired fruits with more seeds and heavier seeds than any mixture containing this donor. This pattern indicates interference of pollens or preemption of some ovules by the inferior pollen. In Campsis, therefore, the number of pollen donors contributing to a pollen load is less important than the identity of these donors in determining fruit production and fruit quality. Seeds from fruits resulting from mixed pollination were slightly more variable than seeds from fruits resulting from single-donor pollinations.     

Population and individual level of masting in a fleshy-fruited tree

Masting is usually considered as a population phenomenon but it results from individuals?? reproductive patterns. Studies of individual patterns of seed production and their synchrony are essential to an understanding of the mechanisms of masting. The aim of this study was to find the relationship between population and individual levels of masting. We examined individuals?? contribution to masting, considering their endogenous cycles, interannual variability and associated weather cues, as well as inter-individual synchrony of fruit production. We studied masting of Sorbus aucuparia L., which in Europe is one of the most common trees bearing fleshy fruits and is strongly affected by a specialized seed predator. The data are 11-year measurements of fruit production of 250 individuals distributed on a 27-ha area of subalpine forest in the Western Carpathians (Poland). Population- and individual-level interannual variability of fruit production was moderate. Synchrony among individuals was relatively high for all years, but the trees were much less synchronized in heavy crop years than in years of low fruit production. Weak synchrony among trees for heavy production years suggests that the predator satiation hypothesis does not explain the observed masting behavior. Fruit production, both at individual and at population level, was highly correlated with weather conditions. However, the presence of masting cannot be fully explained by the resource-matching hypothesis either. We suggest that adverse weather conditions effectively limit fruit production, causing high inter-individual synchrony in low crop years, whereas the unsynchronized heavy crop years seem to have been affected by individually available resources.     

Influences of Cross Pollination on Pollen Tube Growth and Fruit Set in Zuili Plums （Prunus salicina）

Zuili plum （Prunus salicina L.） trees usually set fruit poorly, although they produce high quality fruit. To elucidate the causes of the poor fruit set, pollen tube growth into pistils and fruit set percentage were investigated after cross-, self- and open-pollination. Ovule development in Zuili pistils was also investigated. Pollen tube penetration into the ovules via the obturator and micropyle was best when Zuili pistils were pollinated by cv. Black Amber （P. domestica） pollen grains, although cross-pollinations with Hongxinli and Miili （P. salicina） pollen were more effective than self- and open-pollination. The fruit set percentage was also highest in pistils pollinated with Black Amber pollen grains. Morphological observation of Zuili pistils revealed that the trees produce ＂double pistils＂, developing two ovaries from a basal pistil, at a rate as high as 28%. In such abnormal pistils, most ovules were lacking an embryo sac or were entirely degenerated. The percentage of normally developed ovules was 24.3% and 8.9% in normal and double pistils, respectively. From these results, we conclude that the main causes of poor fruit set of Zuili plums are a lack of effective cross-pollination and the production of high percentages of double pistils in which normally developed ovules are scarcely formed.     

Pollen production,microsporangium dehiscence and pollen flow in Himalayan cedar (Cedrus deodara Roxb. ex d. Don)

Microsporangium dehiscence, pollen production and dispersal were studied in Himalayan cedar (Cedrus deodara) during 1998 and 1999. Microsporangium dehiscence showed diurnal periodicity and was found to be related to air temperature and relative air humidity, with a strobilus taking 2 d to dehisce completely in warmer conditions and 3 d in cooler ones. The frequency of flowering in C. deodara was highly variable during the two successive years; however, cyclical production of pollen grains was observed in 50% of the trees. The maximum concentration of pollen grains in the air was found between 1200 and 1600 h, and this period was also noted to be the best time for pollination. Studying migration of pollen grains from isolated single trees in three directions showed that migration was not uniform in all directions. Long-distance transport of pollen grains was observed in the downhill direction. However, in the uphill and horizontal directions grains could travel only up to 97.5 and l95.1 m, respectively, and the frequency of pollen grains to the source frequency at these distances was only 1.9 and 2-5%, respectively. The results suggest that an isolation barrier of 190 m may be considered as a minimum for the management of deodar seed orchards.     

Pollinator‐mediated interactions between cultivated papaya and co‐flowering plant species

Many modern crop varieties rely on animal pollination to set fruit and seeds. Intensive crop plantations usually do not provide suitable habitats for pollinators so crop yield may depend on the surrounding vegetation to maintain pollination services. However, little is known about the effect of pollinator‐mediated interactions among co‐flowering plants on crop yield or the underlying mechanisms. Plant reproductive success is complex, involving several pre‐ and post‐pollination events; however, the current literature has mainly focused on pre‐pollination events in natural plant communities. We assessed pollinator sharing and the contribution to pollinator diet in a community of wild and cultivated plants that co‐flower with a focal papaya plantation. In addition, we assessed heterospecific pollen transfer to the stigmatic loads of papaya and its effect on fruit and seed production. We found that papaya shared at least one pollinator species with the majority of the co‐flowering plants. Despite this, heterospecific pollen transfer in cultivated papaya was low in open‐pollinated flowers. Hand‐pollination experiments suggest that heterospecific pollen transfer has no negative effect on fruit production or weight, but does reduce seed production. These results suggest that co‐flowering plants offer valuable floral resources to pollinators that are shared with cultivated papaya with little or no cost in terms of heterospecific pollen transfer. Although HP reduced seed production, a reduced number of seeds per se are not negative, given that from an agronomic perspective the number of seeds does not affect the monetary value of the papaya fruit.     

Pollen-limited reproduction in blue oak: implications for wind pollination in fragmented populations

Human activities are fragmenting forests and woodlands worldwide, but the impact of reduced tree population densities on pollen transfer in wind-pollinated trees is poorly understood. In a 4-year study, we evaluated relationships among stand density, pollen availability, and seed production in a thinned and fragmented population of blue oak (Quercus douglasii). Geographic coordinates were established and flowering interval determined for 100 contiguous trees. The number of neighboring trees within 60 m that released pollen during each tree's flowering period was calculated and relationships with acorn production explored using multiple regression. We evaluated the effects of female flower production, average temperature, and relative humidity during the pollination period, and number of pollen-producing neighbors on individual trees' acorn production. All factors except temperature were significant in at least one of the years of our study, but the combination of factors influencing acorn production varied among years. In 1996, a year of large acorn crop size, acorn production was significantly positively associated with number of neighboring pollen producers and density of female flowers. In 1997, 1998, and 1999, many trees produced few or no acorns, and significant associations between number of pollen-producing neighbors and acorn production were only apparent among moderately to highly reproductive trees. Acorn production by these reproductive trees in 1997 was significantly positively associated with number of neighboring pollen producers and significantly negatively associated with average relative humidity during the pollination period. In 1998, no analysis was possible, because too few trees produced a moderate to large acorn crop. Only density of female flowers was significantly associated with acorn production of moderately to highly reproductive trees in 1999. The effect of spatial scale was also investigated by conducting analyses with pollen producers counted in radii ranging from 30 m to 80 m. The association between number of pollen-producing neighbors and acorn production was strongest when neighborhood sizes of 60 m or larger were considered. Our results suggest that fragmentation and thinning of blue oak woodlands may reduce pollen availability and limit reproduction in this wind-pollinated species.