Rabies in urban foxes (Vulpes vulpes) in Britain: the use of a spatial stochastic simulation model to examine the pattern of spread and evaluate the efficacy of different control régimes.

The threat of rabies being reintroduced into Britain is probably greater now than at any time over the last 60 years. This threat is reviewed with particular regard to the problems that would be posed should rabies be introduced to the high-density fox populations found in many cities in southern England. Computer models can provide a valuable means of understanding the pattern of rabies spread in fox populations and the likely problems of control, so the construction of previous rabies models was reviewed. None were found to be suitable for analysing the particular problems posed by high-density, spatially heterogeneous, urban fox populations. Therefore, a new spatial stochastic simulation model was produced, based on demographic and other data collected during a long-term study on the urban fox population in Bristol, and fox density data collected from a number of cities in southern England. The simulation model was used to analyse the effects of spatial heterogeneity in the fox population on the pattern of rabies spread. Simulations were then used to evaluate the effects of: (i) varying levels of fox control; (ii) changing the size of the control zone; (iii) the onset of the rabies epizooty at different times of the year: and (iv) delay before the commencement of control on the chances of containing the disease. These simulations were run for four cities (Bournemouth and Poole, Bristol, Leicester and the West Midlands conurbation) with different mean fox population densities. It was found that the variance in the monthly velocity of the rabies front was greater for heterogeneous fox populations. In cities with high fox densities, low or moderate levels of control were unsuccessful in containing the disease, but these urban areas had the highest rates of success with the highest levels of control. A three-month delay in the commencement of a rabies control campaign on average reduced the chance of successfully controlling the disease by 10-20%, although this was higher in lower-density fox populations. Rabies outbreaks in the dispersal period were on average 10% less likely to be contained. Increasing the size of the control zone increased the chances of successfully containing the disease, although this effect was density dependent, so the effect was less in low-density fox populations. These results are discussed in relation to the current rabies contingency plans for British urban areas.     

Ecology of wildlife rabies in Europe

• 1 The number of wildlife rabies cases has increased in Europe in recent years. We review the epizootiology of wildlife rabies in Europe, paying special attention to recent changes to the situation of two important vector species: the red fox and the raccoon dog. Red fox Vulpes vulpes has been the main vector of rabies since 1945, but the number and proportion of raccoon dog Nyctereutes procyonoides cases has rapidly increased during the past few years, particularly in north‐eastern Europe.
• 2 The transmission rate (average number of susceptible animals infected by each rabid animal) is critical for rabies spread and is partly determined by population density. Both raccoon dogs and foxes live in pairs. Foxes also live in family groups. Pairs and groups share their territories. Home range size usually correlates negatively with population density. Fox home ranges are 50–1500 ha, those of raccoon dogs 150–700 ha. The threshold value for rabies spread among foxes is estimated to be 0.63 individuals/km². Although fox density in eastern and northern Europe may be lower than this, the pooled density of foxes and raccoon dogs exceeds the threshold density.
• 3 Animal movements, especially dispersal of young, pose a risk for rabies spread. Although the likelihood of an epizootic is highest where fox and raccoon dog densities are highest, rabies may spread fastest where population densities are lower, because dispersal distances tend to correlate negatively with population density.
• 4 Oral vaccinations have been more effective in rabies control than culling foxes. Where two vector species exist, vaccination should be conducted twice a year, because most raccoon dogs disperse in autumn but some foxes do not disperse before mid‐ or late winter.
• 5 New rabies models, based on two vector species and their interaction, and which take into account the hibernation period of raccoon dogs, are needed for north‐eastern Europe.

     

Landscape-Genetic Analysis of Population Structure in the Texas Gray Fox Oral Rabies Vaccination Zone

ABSTRACT In west-central Texas, USA, abatement efforts for the gray fox (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) rabies epizootic illustrate the difficulties inherent in large-scale management of wildlife disease. The rabies epizootic has been managed through a cooperative oral rabies vaccination program (ORV) since 1996. Millions of edible baits containing a rabies vaccine have been distributed annually in a 16-km to 24-km zone around the perimeter of the epizootic, which encompasses a geographic area >4 × 10⁵ km². The ORV program successfully halted expansion of the epizootic into metropolitan areas but has not achieved the ultimate goal of eradication. Rabies activity in gray fox continues to occur periodically outside the ORV zone, preventing ORV zone contraction and dissipation of the epizootic. We employed a landscape-genetic approach to assess gray fox population structure and dispersal in the affected area, with the aim of assisting rabies management efforts. No unique genetic clusters or population boundaries were detected. Instead, foxes were weakly structured over the entire region in an isolation by distance pattern. Local subpopulations appeared to be genetically non-independent over distances >30 km, implying that long-distance movements or dispersal may have been common in the region. We concluded that gray foxes in west-central Texas have a high potential for long-distance rabies virus trafficking. Thus, a 16-km to 24-km ORV zone may be too narrow to contain the fox rabies epizootic. Continued expansion of the ORV zone, although costly, may be critical to the long-term goal of eliminating the Texas fox rabies virus variant from the United States.     

Modeling control of rabies outbreaks in red fox populations to evaluate culling,vaccination, and vaccination combined with fertility control

A predictive model of spread and control of rabies in red fox (Vulpes vulpes) populations was used to evaluate efficacy of culling, oral vaccination, and oral vaccination and fertility control (V + FC) as rabies control strategies. In addition, effects of season, fox population density, and a delay in starting control were modeled. At fox densities of 0.5 fox families/km2 or greater, a single oral vaccination campaign with bait uptake rates of less than 50% resulted in ineffective rabies control. An uptake rate of at least 80% was required to give a better than 80% chance of eliminating rabies. Vaccination was least effective at controlling rabies if applied 1 or 2 mo before the foxes gave birth. Seasonal timing of poison or V + FC had little effect on efficacy, which was always more successful than the oral vaccination alone. The longer the delay between the simulated start of the rabies infection and the application of a single vaccination campaign, the less successful was the control, particularly at the higher fox densities tested. At a fox density of 0.25 families/km2, all the strategies were equally successful at eliminating rabies. At higher fox densities V + FC was slightly less successful than culling, whereas vaccination-only was considerably less successful. The sole use of vaccination is not considered a viable control method for areas with high fox densities. The model suggests that an area of culling centered on the disease focus, plus an outer ring of vaccine or V + FC, could be the best strategy to control a point-source wildlife rabies outbreak.     

Raccoons (Procyon lotor) in Germany as potential reservoir species for Lyssaviruses

Raccoons can be found almost everywhere in Germany since their first successful introduction in 1934. Although the animal is a well-known reservoir species for rabies in the USA, during the last European fox rabies epizootic, only a few rabid raccoons were reported from Germany. In recent years, the raccoon population density has increased tremendously, especially in (semi) urban settings. Presently, Germany is free of terrestrial wildlife rabies. To assess the potential risk that the raccoon population in Germany could act as a reservoir species upon reemergence of rabies, the susceptibility of the local raccoon population was investigated. Wild-caught animals were inoculated with the most likely lyssavirus variants to infect the local population. It was shown that the raccoons were fully susceptible for a dog and raccoon rabies virus isolate. Also, five of six raccoons inoculated with a fox rabies virus isolate showed clinical signs. However, none of the raccoons infected with European Bat Lyssavirus type 1 succumbed to rabies; meanwhile, all these raccoons seroconverted. It is concluded that the highest risk for the raccoon population in Germany to become infected with lyssaviruses is through the importation of rabies infected dogs.     

Experience with antirabies vaccination of foxes using the oral route coordinated among several European countries and perspectives on the use of recombinant vaccinia-rabies virus

Campaigns of fox vaccination against rabies were carried out in Belgium, grand-duchy of Luxembourg and France in September 1986, June and September 1987. The SAD B19 attenuated strain of rabies virus, contained in baits (Tübingen baits) was used as vaccine. Baits were distributed at a range density of 11 to 15 baits per km2. First results are very encouraging. A recombinant vaccinia virus harbouring the rabies virus glycoprotein gene has been developed. This recombinant virus can be given to the fox by the oral route and protects it against rabies virus challenge; it is also innocuous for the fox and other non-target European species. A first trial of fox vaccination against rabies using this recombinant vaccinia-rabies virus has been carried out in Belgium, on a military domain, in October 1987.     

A modelling approach to vaccination and contraception programmes for rabies control in fox populations

In a previous study, three of the authors designed a one-dimensional model to simulate the propagation of rabies within a growing fox population; the influence of various parameters on the epidemic model was studied, including oral-vaccination programmes. In this work, a two-dimensional model of a fox population having either an exponential or a logistic growth pattern was considered. Using numerical simulations, the efficiencies of two prophylactic methods (fox contraception and vaccination against rabies) were assessed, used either separately or jointly. It was concluded that far lower rates of administration are necessary to eradicate rabies, and that the undesirable side-effects of each programme disappear, when both are used together.     

Echinococcus multilocularis: secondary poisoning of fox population during a vole outbreak reduces environmental contamination in a high endemicity area

This paper describes the role of fox population level on Echinococcus multilocularis infection in foxes in a highly endemic area in eastern France. Fox population level was monitored by spotlight survey at Le Souillot from 1989 to 2000, and from 1992 to 2000 at Chemin, a control site located in a low endemic area. The infection level of the fox population was estimated at Le Souillot from winter 1995 to winter 1999 using a coproantigen ELISA performed on faeces collected in the field. Population biomass of intermediate hosts (Microtus arvalis and Arvicola terrestris) was monitored using index methods from 1995 to 1999. At Le Souillot, a significant decline in the fox population level was recorded after spring 1997 (P<0.001), and the population level remained low until 2000. The decline occurred when 31% of the grassland area was treated with bromadiolone, an anticoagulant used at a large scale for the control of A. terrestris population outbreaks. No decline of population was recorded at Chemin, where bromadiolone was not used for rodent control. Significant differences among ELISA OD distributions in fox faeces were recorded for the five winters under study at Le Souillot (P=0.0004). The median of ELISA OD distribution was 0.209 and 0.207 before the population decline (winter 1995 and 1996, respectively), significantly increased to 0.306 just after the decline (winter 1997), and then significantly decreased to 0.099 and 0.104 afterwards (winter 1998 and 1999, respectively). Therefore, the decrease in infection level occurred during winter 1998, 1 year after the population decline, when the intermediate host biomass in the field was at its highest. These results suggest a complex dependence between the fox population level and E. multilocularis infection in a high endemicity area. Alternative ways to control fox population as a way to reduce E. multilocularis transmission in a given area are discussed.     

Elimination of rabies from red foxes in eastern Ontario

The province of Ontario (Canada) reported more laboratory confirmed rabid animals than any other state or province in Canada or the USA from 1958-91, with the exception of 1960-62. More than 95% of those cases occurred in the southern 10% of Ontario (approximately 100,000 km2), the region with the highest human population density and greatest agricultural activity. Rabies posed an expensive threat to human health and significant costs to the agricultural economy. The rabies variant originated in arctic foxes: the main vector in southern Ontario was the red fox (Vulpes vulpes), with lesser involvement of the striped skunk (Mephitis mephitis). The Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources began a 5 yr experiment in 1989 to eliminate terrestrial rabies from a approximately 30,000 km2 study area in the eastern end of southern Ontario. Baits containing oral rabies vaccine were dropped annually in the study area at a density of 20 baits/km2 from 1989-95. That continued 2 yr beyond the original 5 yr plan. The experiment was successful in eliminating the arctic fox variant of rabies from the whole area. In the 1980's, an average of 235 rabid foxes per year were reported in the study area. None have been reported since 1993. Cases of fox rabies in other species also disappeared. In 1995, the last bovine and companion animal cases were reported and in 1996 the last rabid skunk occurred. Only bat variants of rabies were present until 1999, when the raccoon variant entered from New York (USA). The success of this experiment led to an expansion of the program to all of southern Ontario in 1994. Persistence of terrestrial rabies, and ease of elimination, appeared to vary geographically, and probably over time. Ecological factors which enhance or reduce the long term survival of rabies in wild foxes are poorly understood.     

Rabies and canine distemper in an arctic fox population in Alaska

Two oil field workers were attacked by a rabid arctic fox (Alopex lagopus) in the Prudhoe Bay oil field (Alaska, USA) prompting officials to reduce the local fox population. Ninety-nine foxes were killed during winter 1994. We tested foxes for prevalence of rabies and canine distemper. Exposure to rabies was detected in five of 99 foxes. Of the five, only one fox had rabies virus in neural tissue as determined by the direct fluorescent antibody test. The other four foxes had been exposed to rabies, but had apparently produced antibodies and did not have an active infection. No evidence of canine distemper was detected as determined by the absence of distemper antibodies in serum and distemper virus in neural tissue.     

Rabies emergence among foxes in Turkey

Sixteen rabies isolates recently collected from mainland Turkey and two isolates held within a British archive were used to form a representative cohort from a range of vectors, and were analyzed to identify potential causes for an increase of rabies within the fox (Vulpes vulpes) population in Turkey. Each isolate was characterized by sequence analysis of the nucleoprotein gene and compared phylogenetically to the cohort, to isolates from neighboring countries and to isolates from continental Europe and Russia. From this analysis the isolates could be divided into three groups associated with geographic location. This included a western group, an eastern group, and one isolate that did not group with any other Turkish isolate. This observation was also found using the heteroduplex mobility assay as an alternative method for typing rabies virus isolates. Further comparison with isolates from neighboring countries suggests that this isolate was related to viruses present in Georgia and could represent a recent import to Turkey from that country. Within the two larger groups, sequence data were obtained from both infected dogs and foxes suggesting that there has been transmission of virus between these two species. The direction of transmission could not be identified by the phylogenetic analysis, although absence of rabies within the fox population in previous years suggests that this could represent a recent spillover from the domestic dog to the fox.     

Effects of long‐term fox baiting on species composition and abundance in an Australian lizard community

Abstract We report on the effects of almost a decade of 1080‐fox baiting on a lizard community in a mosaic Australian habitat. Replicated comparisons of baited versus non‐baited control areas with near‐identical histories of bush fires, grazing and climate showed a higher density of red fox tracks (Canis vulpes) in the non‐baited areas. Furthermore, the fox‐baited areas showed a more than five times higher density of sand goannas (Varanus gouldii), a species that strongly overlaps the red fox in food niche breadth and is itself a direct target of fox predation, in particular its eggs and young. Exclusion of predators from a natural habitat led to significant increases in the density of small lizards, suggesting that predation can drive lizard population dynamics in this ecosystem. Replicated pitfall‐trapping in three habitats in the control areas (with high fox and low goanna density) versus the baited areas (with low fox and high goanna density) showed that fox baiting had positive effects on the density of diurnal scincid lizards in open grassland, whereas the control areas showed higher density of nocturnal gecko lizards. Our interpretation is that fox removal may result in a shift in the top predator towards the sand goanna. Historically, this indigenous, endemic species was the natural top predator. It has co‐evolved with its prey and that may have moulded it into a more efficient lizard predator per encounter than the introduced fox.     

Mathematical model study of the dynamics of an exploited population of the common fox (Vulpes vulpes L.)

The observed dependence of intensity of hunting intensity and the share of reproducing females on fox population density was shown to cause the existence of several stable equilibrium values of fox numbers and incompatibility of requirements for both maximal prey and prey stability. Organization of forbid forests is an acceptable way to regulate hunting in this situation.     

Animal rabies in Poland: epidemiological situation and methods of control

The epidemiological situation and methods of control of animal rabies in Poland are presented. Registered data on rabies cases for the period from 1948 up to 1986 are discussed. Two species of animals, namely dogs and foxes, have played the major role in the epidemics of rabies. The undertaken measures have proved satisfactory to control rabies due to dogs as a vector but were found inadequate to control wild-life rabies. Since 1967 the fox has been the main vector of the epizootics of rabies.     

Prediction of the activity of rabies foci based on biotic and climatic factors

Investigations carried out in Voronezh Province have shown that the activity of the foci of rabies is poorly related to the changes in the fox population. For the prognostication of the situation to be expected, good promise is held in the use of such data as the size of the population of murine rodents and the climatic conditions of the autumn and winter period. Rises in rabies morbidity are observed following an increase in the number of murine rodents (26% and higher) in autumn and a sharp decrease in their number by the spring of the epizootic year, and also if in the preceding year autumn began early and temperatures in winter and spring were above the average level, flood came quickly and water levels were low. It is expedient to use these regularities for the short-term prognosis of the epidemiological situation.     

Trap-vaccinate-release and oral vaccination for rabies control in urban skunks, raccoons and foxes.

Two rabies control tactics, trap-vaccinate-release (T-V-R) and oral vaccination were used for the control of rabies in skunks (Mephitis mephitis), raccoons (Procyon lotor), and foxes (Vulpes vulpes) in metropolitan Toronto, Canada. Using T-V-R, a mean of 45% to 72% (95% confidence limits of 40% to 81%) of the skunks and a mean of 17% to 68% (95% confidence limits of 14% to 76%) of the raccoons in a 60 km2 area of Toronto were vaccinated against rabies between 1987 and 1991. The area has been free of skunk rabies from May 1989 to April 1992. Forty-five rabies cases were diagnosed during 1980 to 1986. In contrast, only three skunk cases have been reported since the vaccination program began in July 1987. The T-V-R area also remained rabies free during an epizootic of skunk rabies in metropolitan Toronto during 1991. Following distribution of rabies vaccine-baits throughout the ravines of metropolitan Toronto, June 1989 to December 1991, 46% to 80% of the Toronto fox population was immunized during 1989, 1990 and 1991. Only one case of fox rabies was reported in metropolitan Toronto since vaccination began, compared to 80 cases reported between 1982 and 1988. The area has been free of reported fox rabies from October 1990 to April 1992.     

Population structure of two rabies hosts relative to the known distribution of rabies virus variants in Alaska

For pathogens that infect multiple species, the distinction between reservoir hosts and spillover hosts is often difficult. In Alaska, three variants of the arctic rabies virus exist with distinct spatial distributions. We tested the hypothesis that rabies virus variant distribution corresponds to the population structure of the primary rabies hosts in Alaska, arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus) and red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) to possibly distinguish reservoir and spillover hosts. We used mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequence and nine microsatellites to assess population structure in those two species. mtDNA structure did not correspond to rabies virus variant structure in either species. Microsatellite analyses gave varying results. Bayesian clustering found two groups of arctic foxes in the coastal tundra region, but for red foxes it identified tundra and boreal types. Spatial Bayesian clustering and spatial principal components analysis identified 3 and 4 groups of arctic foxes, respectively, closely matching the distribution of rabies virus variants in the state. Red foxes, conversely, showed eight clusters comprising two regions (boreal and tundra) with much admixture. These results run contrary to previous beliefs that arctic fox show no fine‐scale spatial population structure. While we cannot rule out that the red fox is part of the maintenance host community for rabies in Alaska, the distribution of virus variants appears to be driven primarily by the arctic fox. Therefore, we show that host population genetics can be utilized to distinguish between maintenance and spillover hosts when used in conjunction with other approaches.     

On the spatial spread of rabies among foxes

We present a simple model for the spatial spread of rabies among foxes and use it to quantify its progress in England if rabies were introduced. The model is based on the known ecology of fox behaviour and on the assumption that the main vector for the spread of the disease is the rabid fox. Known data and facts are used to determine real parameter values involved in the model. We calculate the speed of propagation of the epizootic front, the threshold for the existence of an epidemic, the period and distance apart of the subsequent cyclical epidemics which follow the main front, and finally we quantify a means for control of the spatial spread of the disease. By way of illustration we use the model to determine the progress of rabies up through the southern part of England if it were introduced near Southampton. Estimates for the current fox density in England were used in the simulations. These suggest that the disease would reach Manchester within about 3.5 years, moving at speeds as high as 100 km per year in the central region. The model further indicates that although it might seem that the disease had disappeared after the wave had passed it would reappear in the south of England after just over 6 years and at periodic times after that. We consider the possibility of stopping the spread of the disease by creating a rabies 'break' ahead of the front through vaccination to reduce the population to a level below the threshold for an epidemic to exist. Based on parameter values relevant to England, we estimate its minimum width to be about 15 km. The model suggests that vaccination has considerable advantages over severe culling.     

Possible contemporary evolution in an endangered species, the Santa Cruz Island fox

An ability to mount rapid evolutionary responses to environmental change may be necessary for species persistence in a human-dominated world. We present evidence of the possibility of such contemporary evolution in the anti-predator behaviour of the critically endangered Santa Cruz Island fox Urocyon littoralis . In 1994, golden eagles colonized Santa Cruz Island, CA and devastated the predator-naïve, endemic island fox population by 95% within 10 years. In 1992, just before the arrival of golden eagles, foxes showed substantial diurnal activity, but diurnal activity was 37.0% lower in 2003–2007, after golden eagle colonization; concurrently, overall activity declined and nocturnal activity increased. Moreover, on nearby Santa Catalina Island, where golden eagles were absent but where the fox population recently crashed due to a disease epidemic, remaining foxes were significantly more diurnally active than were those on Santa Cruz Island. The weight of evidence suggests that the change in activity pattern was a response to predation, not to low population density, and that this was probably a heritable rather than a learned behavioural trait. This behavioural change may allow for prolonged island fox persistence, but also potentially represents a loss of behavioural diversity in fox populations.