Population dynamics of scrapie in a sheep flock.

A detailed analysis of an outbreak of natural scrapie in a flock of Cheviot sheep is described. A total of 137 cases was reported over 13 years among 1307 sheep born into the flock. The epidemiology of scrapie can only be understood with reference to sheep demography, the population genetics of susceptibility to scrapie, pathogenesis during a long incubation period, and the rate of transmission (by both vertical and horizontal routes), all of which interact in complex ways. A mathematical model incorporating these features is described, parameter values and model inputs are derived from available information from the flock and from independent sources, and model outputs are compared with the field data. The model is able to reproduce key features of the outbreak, including its long duration and the ages of cases. The analysis supports earlier work suggesting that many infected sheep do not survive to show clinical signs, that most cases arise through horizontal transmission, and that there is strong selection against susceptible genotypes. However, important aspects of scrapie epidemiology remain poorly understood, including the possible role of carrier genotypes and of an environmental reservoir of infectivity, and the mechanisms maintaining alleles giving susceptibility to scrapie in the sheep population.     

Epidemiology and control of scrapie within a sheep flock.

Mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of scrapie are used to explore the expected course of an outbreak in a sheep flock, and the potential impacts of different control measures. All models incorporate sheep demography, a long and variable scrapie incubation period, horizontal and vertical routes of transmission and genetic variation in susceptibility. Outputs are compared for models which do and do not incorporate an environmental reservoir of infectivity, and which do and do not incorporate carrier genotypes. Numerical analyses using parameter values consistent with available data indicate that, in a closed flock, scrapie outbreaks may have a duration of several decades, reduce the frequency of susceptible genotypes, and may become endemic if carrier genotypes are present. In an open flock, endemic scrapie is possible even in the absence of carriers. Control measures currently or likely to become available may reduce the incidence of cases but may be fully effective only over a period of several years.     

Investigation of a Simple Model for Within-Flock Transmission of Scrapie

Genetic control programs for scrapie in sheep build on solid knowledge of how susceptibility to scrapie is modulated by the prion protein genotype at the level of an individual sheep. In order to satisfactorily analyze the effectivity of control programs at the population level, insight is needed at the flock level, i.e., how the grouping of sheep in flocks affects the population-level transmission risk. In particular, one would like to understand how this risk is affected by between-flock differences in genotype frequency distribution. A first step is to model the scrapie transmission risk within a flock as a function of the flock genotype profile. Here we do so by estimating parameters for a model of within-flock transmission using genotyping data on Dutch flocks affected by scrapie. We show that the data are consistent with a relatively simple transmission model assuming horizontal transmission and homogeneous mixing between animals. The model expresses the basic reproduction number for within-flock scrapie as a weighted average of genotype-specific susceptibilities, multiplied by a single overall transmission parameter. The value of the overall transmission parameter may vary between flocks to account for random between-flock variation in non-genetic determinants such as management practice. Here we provide an estimate of its mean value and variation for Dutch flocks.     

Review: A review on classical and atypical scrapie in caprine: Prion protein gene polymorphisms and their role in the disease

Scrapie is a naturally occurring transmissible spongiform encephalopathy in sheep and goat. It has been known for ~250 years and is characterised by the accumulation of an abnormal isoform of a host-encoded prion protein that leads to progressive neurodegeneration and death. Scrapie is recognised in two forms, classical and atypical scrapie. The susceptibility to both types of scrapie is influenced by polymorphisms of the prion protein gene (PRNP). Sheep susceptibility or resistance to classical scrapie is strongly regulated by the polymorphisms at codons 136, 154 and 171 of the PRNP. The genetic role in atypical scrapie in sheep has been defined by polymorphisms at codons 141, 154 and 171, which are associated with different degrees of risk in the occurrence of the ovine disease. Progress has been achieved in the prevention of scrapie in sheep due to efficient genetic breeding programmes based on eradication and control of the disease. In Europe, the success of these programmes has been verified by applying eradication and genetic selection plans. In general terms, the ovine selection plans aim to eliminate and reduce the susceptible allele and to enrich the resistant allele ARR. During outbreaks all susceptible animals are slaughtered, only ARR/ARR resistant rams and sheep and semi-resistant females are preserved. In the occurrence of scrapie positive goats a complete cull of the flock (stamping out) is performed with great economic loss and severe risk of extinction for the endangered breeds. The ability to select scrapie-resistant animals allows to define new breeding strategies aimed to boost genetic progress while reducing costs during scrapie outbreaks. Allelic variants of PRNP can be protective for caprine scrapie, and the knowledge of their distribution in goats has become very important. Over the past few years, the integration of genetic information on goat populations could be used to make selection decisions, commonly referred to as genetic selection. The objective of this review was to summarise the main findings of polymorphisms of the caprine prion protein (PrP) gene and to discuss the possible application of goat breeding schemes integrating genetic selection, with their relative advantages and limitations.     

Prion protein alleles showing a protective effect on the susceptibility of sheep to scrapie and bovine spongiform encephalopathy

The susceptibility of sheep to classical scrapie and bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) is mainly influenced by prion protein (PrP) polymorphisms A136V, R154H, and Q171R, with the ARR allele associated with significantly decreased susceptibility. Here we report the protective effect of the amino acid substitution M137T, I142K, or N176K on the ARQ allele in sheep experimentally challenged with either scrapie or BSE. Such observations suggest the existence of additional PrP alleles that significantly decrease the susceptibility of sheep to transmissible spongiform encephalopathies, which may have important implications for disease eradication strategies.     

Prion protein (PrP) gene polymorphism in Red Maasai and Black Head Persian sheep breeds in Tanzania: Consistent profile regardless of locations

The status of scrapie in Africa is largely unknown. The susceptibility to scrapie and its pathology is determined by amino acid polymorphisms at positions 136 (A/V), 154 (R/H) and 171 (Q/R/H) of the ovine PrP gene (PrP genotype) of the animals. Despite the widely studied PrP gene polymorphisms worldwide, limited data is available on PrP genotypes of sheep from the African continent. Previously, we have reported six PrP genotypes derived from four different alleles in Red Maasai and Black Herd Persian (BHP), the ARQ/ARQ genotype being more frequent in the Red Maasai than in the BHP sheep. The highly susceptible VRQ allele was not found in any of the sheep breeds; the ARR allele was absent in the Red Maasai or occurred at a low frequency in the BHP. The lack of the highly susceptible VRQ alleles among Tanzanian sheep examined, necessitated further examinations on genetic susceptibility in sheep of the same breeds, but originating from an entirely different part of Tanzania. Consistently, ARQ/ARQ genotype was observed in 88% of Red Maasai and 64% of BHP sheep, ARQ/AHQ genotype was present in 12% in Red Maasai and 36% in BHP. Neither the highly resistant (ARR/ARR), nor the highly susceptible (VRQ/VRQ) genotypes were found. The ARQ and AHQ were the only alleles observed. The ARQ allele constituted 94%, 82% and 67% in the Red Maasai, BHP and cross-bred sheep, respectively. The AHQ constituted 6%, 18% and 33%, respectively. Data reported here, provide additional information on genetic susceptibility of the Red Maasai, BHP and their crosses; they may be helpful in policy formulation for future prevention of scrapie.     

Proteinase K-resistant material in ARR/VRQ sheep brain affected with classical scrapie is composed mainly of VRQ prion protein

Classical scrapie is a prion disease in sheep and goats. In sheep, susceptibility to disease is genetically influenced by single amino acid substitutions. Genetic breeding programs aimed at enrichment of arginine-171 (171R) prion protein (PrP), the so-called ARR allele, in the sheep population have been demonstrated to be effective in reducing the occurrence of classical scrapie in the field. Understanding the molecular basis for this reduced prevalence would serve the assessment of ARR adaptation. The prion formation mechanism and conversion of PrP from the normal form (PrP(C)) to the scrapie-associated form (PrP(Sc)) could play a key role in this process. Therefore, we investigated whether the ARR allele substantially contributes to scrapie prion formation in naturally infected heterozygous 171Q/R animals. Two methods were applied to brain tissue of 171Q/R heterozygous sheep with natural scrapie to determine the relative amount of the 171R PrP fraction in PrP(res), the proteinase K-resistant PrP(Sc) core. An antibody test differentiating between 171Q and 171R PrP fragments showed that PrP(res) was mostly composed of the 171Q allelotype. Furthermore, using a novel tool for prion research, endoproteinase Lys-C-digested PrP(res) yielded substantial amounts of a nonglycosylated and a monoglycosylated PrP fragment comprising codons 114 to 188. Following two-dimensional gel electrophoresis, only marginal amounts (<9%) of 171R PrP(res) were detected. Enhanced 171R(res) proteolytic susceptibility could be excluded. Thus, these data support a nearly zero contribution of 171R PrP in PrP(res) of 171R/Q field scrapie-infected animals. This is suggestive of a poor adaptation of classical scrapie to this resistance allele under these natural conditions.     

Comparative Susceptibility of Sheep of Different Origins,Breeds and PRNP Genotypes to Challenge with Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy and Scrapie

Sheep are natural hosts of the prion disease, scrapie. They are also susceptible to experimental challenge with various scrapie strains and with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), which affects cattle and has been accidentally transmitted to a range of other species, including man. Incidence and incubation period of clinical disease in sheep following inoculation is controlled by the PRNP gene, which has different alleles defined on the basis of polymorphisms, particularly at codons 136, 154 and 171, although other codons are associated with survival time, and the exact responses of the sheep may be influenced by other breed-related differences. Here we report the results of a long term single study of experimental scrapie and BSE susceptibility of sheep of Cheviot, Poll Dorset and Suffolk breeds, originating from New Zealand and of a wide range of susceptible and resistant PRNP genotypes. Responses were compared with those of sheep from a closed Cheviot flock of UK origin (Roslin Cheviot flock). The unusually long observation period (6–8 years for most, but up to 12 years for others) allows us to draw robust conclusions about rates of survival of animals previously regarded as resistant to infection, particularly PRNP heterozygotes, and is the most comprehensive such study reported to date. BSE inoculation by an intracerebral route produced disease in all genotype groups with differing incubation periods, although M112T and L141F polymorphisms seemed to give some protection. Scrapie isolate SSBP/1, which has the shortest incubation period in sheep with at least one VRQ PRNP allele, also produced disease following sub-cutaneous inoculation in ARQ/ARQ animals of New Zealand origin, but ARQ/ARQ sheep from the Roslin flock survived the challenge. Our results demonstrate that the links between PRNP genotype and clinical prion disease in sheep are much less secure than previously thought, and may break down when, for example, a different breed of sheep is moved into a new flock.     

Prion Protein Polymorphisms and Estimation of Risk of Scrapie in East Asian Sheep

Allele and genotype frequency distributions of prion protein (PrP) polymorphisms at three codons, 136, 154, and 171, in East Asian sheep were determined by PCR–RFLP analysis using 553 animals from nine local breeds of the northern group and four local breeds of the southern group. Based on the genotype distribution, the risk score for scrapie was estimated. Among the local breeds, ARQ appeared predominantly (0.7701–1), followed by ARH and ARR. From such a biased allele distribution, it was difficult to ascertain the prevalent genetic relationships. A marked difference in allele frequencies between the northern and southern groups was seen (P < 0.0001). The East Asian sheep had ARQ at the highest frequency (0.8834); in European sheep it was 0.5317. According to an assessment of scrapie risk in the PrP genotype classes, the predominant ARQ/ARQ in East Asian sheep corresponded to the risk score of R4. This finding suggests that East Asian sheep have a high level of genetic susceptibility to scrapie.     

The genetics of scrapie in sheep and goats

Scrapie, an invariably fatal disease of sheep and goats, is a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE). The putative infectious agent is the host-encoded prion protein, PrP. The development of scrapie is closely linked to polymorphisms in the host PrP gene. The pathogenesis of most TSEs involves conversion of normal, cellular PrP into a protease-resistant, pathogenic isoform called PrPSc. The conversion to PrPSc involves change in secondary structure; it is impacts on these structural changes that may link polymorphisms to disease. Within the structured C-terminal part of PrP polymorphisms have been reported at 15 and 10 codons of the sheep and goat PrP genes respectively. Three polymorphisms in sheep are acutely linked to the occurrence of scrapie: A136V, R154H and Q171R/H. These generate five commonly observed alleles: ARQ, ARR, AHQ, ARH and VRQ. ARR and AHQ are associated with resistance; ARQ, ARH and VRQ are associated with susceptibility. There are subtle effects of specific allele pairings (genotypes). Generally, more susceptible genotypes have younger ages at death from scrapie. Different strains of scrapie occur which may attack genotypes differently. Different sheep breeds vary in the assortment of the five alleles that they predominantly encode. The reason for this variation is not known. Furthermore, certain genotypes may be susceptible to scrapie in some breeds and resistant in others. The explanation is not known, but may relate to different scrapie strains circulating in different breeds, or there may be effects of other genes which modulate the effect of PrP.     

Allelic frequencies of an ovine scrapie susceptibility gene

Abstract

The allelic frequencies of an ovine gene associated with susceptibility to scrapie was analyzed in a sample of 30 scrapie affected sheep and 545 clinically normal sheep from 12 flocks. The allele encoding glutamine at codon 171 occurred at a frequency of 0.76 in the overall population. All 30 scrapie affected sheep were homozygous for glutamine at codon 171. This genotype was observed in 56.5% of the clinically normal sheep. None of the 30 scrapie affected sheep carried the allele encoding Valine at codon 136 although this allele was observed in 2/12 flocks sampled.     

Scrapie resistance in ARQ sheep

Variation in the ovine prion protein amino acid sequence influences scrapie progression, with sheep homozygous for A(136)R(154)Q(171) considered susceptible. This study examined the association of survival time of scrapie-exposed ARQ sheep with variation elsewhere in the ovine prion gene. Four single nucleotide polymorphism alleles were associated with prolonged survival. One nonsynonymous allele (T112) was associated with an additional 687 days of survival for scrapie-exposed sheep compared to M112 sheep (odds ratio, 42.5; P = 0.00014). The only two sheep homozygous for T112 (TARQ) did not develop scrapie, suggesting that the allelic effect may be additive. These results provide evidence that TARQ sheep are genetically resistant to development of classical scrapie.     

Implications of Conflicting Associations of the Prion Protein (PrP) Gene with Scrapie Susceptibility and Fitness on the Persistence of Scrapie

Background

Existing mathematical models for scrapie dynamics in sheep populations assume that the PrP gene is only associated with scrapie susceptibility and with no other fitness related traits. This assumption contrasts recent findings of PrP gene associations with post-natal lamb survival in scrapie free Scottish Blackface populations. Lambs with scrapie resistant genotypes were found to have significantly lower survival rates than those with susceptible genotypes. The present study aimed to investigate how these conflicting PrP gene associations may affect the dynamic patterns of PrP haplotype frequencies and disease prevalence.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A deterministic mathematical model was developed to explore how the associations between PrP genotype and both scrapie susceptibility and postnatal lamb mortality affect the prevalence of scrapie and the associated change in PrP gene frequencies in a closed flock of sheep. The model incorporates empirical evidence on epidemiological and biological characteristics of scrapie and on mortality rates induced by causes other than scrapie. The model results indicate that unfavorable associations of the scrapie resistant PrP haplotypes with post-natal lamb mortality, if sufficiently strong, can increase scrapie prevalence during an epidemic, and result in scrapie persisting in the population. The range of model parameters, for which such effects were observed, is realistic but relatively narrow.

Conclusions/Significance

The results of the present model suggest that for most parameter combinations an unfavourable association between PrP genotype and post-natal lamb mortality does not greatly alter the dynamics of scrapie and, hence, would not have an adverse impact on a breeding programme. There were, however, a range of scenarios, narrow, but realistic, in which such an unfavourable association resulted in an increased prevalence and in the persistence of infection. Consequently, associations between PrP genotypes and fitness traits should be taken into account when designing future models and breeding programmes.     

Epidemiological Characteristics of Classical Scrapie Outbreaks in 30 Sheep Flocks in the United Kingdom

Background

Most previous analyses of scrapie outbreaks have focused on flocks run by research institutes, which may not reflect the field situation. Within this study, we attempt to rectify this deficit by describing the epidemiological characteristics of 30 sheep flocks naturally-infected with classical scrapie, and by exploring possible underlying causes of variation in the characteristics between flocks, including flock-level prion protein (PrP) genotype profile. In total, the study involved PrP genotype data for nearly 8600 animals and over 400 scrapie cases.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We found that most scrapie cases were restricted to just two PrP genotypes (ARQ/VRQ and VRQ/VRQ), though two flocks had markedly different affected genotypes, despite having similar underlying genotype profiles to other flocks of the same breed; we identified differences amongst flocks in the age of cases of certain PrP genotypes; we found that the age-at-onset of clinical signs depended on peak incidence and flock type; we found evidence that purchasing infected animals is an important means of introducing scrapie to a flock; we found some evidence that flock-level PrP genotype profile and flock size account for variation in outbreak characteristics; identified seasonality in cases associated with lambing time in certain flocks; and we identified one case that was homozygous for phenylalanine at codon 141, a polymorphism associated with a very high risk of atypical scrapie, and 28 cases that were heterozygous at this codon.

Conclusions/Significance

This paper presents the largest study to date on commercially-run sheep flocks naturally-infected with classical scrapie, involving 30 study flocks, more than 400 scrapie cases and over 8500 PrP genotypes. We show that some of the observed variation in epidemiological characteristics between farms is related to differences in their PrP genotype profile; although much remains unexplained and may instead be attributed to the stochastic nature of scrapie dynamics.     

新疆地区绵羊品种朊蛋白基因136、154和171位点的多态性

绵羊痒病是一种渐进性和致死性中枢神经系统疾病,绵羊朊蛋白基因(Prion protein gene,PRNP)多态性与痒病的易感或抗性有关,其中PRNP136位(V/A)、154位(H/R)和171位(H/Q/R)的基因多态性与该病发生最相关。为评价新疆地区主要绵羊品种对痒病的易感性,文章对新疆地区10个绵羊品种(阿勒泰、巴士拜、巴音布鲁克、多浪、和田、策勒黑、中国美利奴、德国肉用美利奴、特克赛尔和萨福克羊)共746只个体PRNP基因的136位(V/A)、154位(H/R)和171位(H/Q/R)的遗传多态性进行分析,检测到了ARQ、ARR、ARH、ARK、VRQ、AHR、AHQ、AHH8种等位基因,其中ARQ和ARR等位基因存在于所有品种中,且ARQ在所有品种中的基因频率最高。ARH存在于除萨福克和德国肉用美利奴羊外的8个绵羊品种中。仅在新疆地方品种阿勒泰、巴音布鲁克、巴士拜和多浪羊中检测到ARK等位基因。而VRQ、AHR、AHQ和AHH4种等位基因只在中国美利奴羊上存在,且频率极低。在10个品种中共检测到了ARQ/ARQ、ARQ/ARK、ARR/ARR、ARH/ARH、ARQ/ARR、ARH/ARQ、ARH/ARR、ARK/ARK、ARH/ARK、ARQ/VRQ、ARQ/AHQ、ARQ/AHR和ARH/AHH13种基因型,其中中度易感的ARQ/ARQ基因型频率最高,而抗性最强的ARR/ARR基因型仅存在于巴音布鲁克、策勒黑、中国美利奴、特克赛尔和德国肉用美利奴羊,且频率较低。文章首次在中国美利奴羊上发现了易感性很强的VRQ/ARQ基因型。上述结果提示新疆的主要绵羊品种对痒病的抗性较弱。     

Transferrin polymorphism in Herdwick sheep

The transferrin system in Herdwick sheep, bred at Compton, was investigated with special reference to the susceptibility of the flock to experimentally produced scrapie. No significant correlations were observed between susceptibility and transferrin phenotypes.     

Transferrin polymorphism in Herdwick sheep.

The transferrin system in Herdwick sheep, bred at Compton, was investigated with special reference to the susceptibility of the flock to experimentally produced scrapie. No significant correlations were observed between susceptibility and transferrin phenotypes.     

Allelic variants of ovine prion protein gene (PRNP) in Oklahoma sheep

1,144 sheep belonging to 21 breeds and known crosses were sequence analyzed for polymorphisms in the ovine PRNP gene. Genotype and allele frequencies of polymorphisms in PRNP known to confer resistance to scrapie, a fatal neurodegenerative disease of sheep, are reported. Known polymorphisms at codons 136 (A/V), 154 (H/R) and 171 (Q/R/H/K) were identified. The frequency of the 171R allele known to confer resistance to type C scrapie was 53.8% and the frequency of the 136A allele known to influence the resistance to type A scrapie was 96.01%. In addition, we report the identification of five new polymorphisms at codons 143 (H/R), 167 (R/S), 180 (H/Y), 195 (T/S) and 196 (T/S). We also report the identification of a novel allele (S/R) at codon 138.     

The transmission dynamics of the aetiological agent of scrapie in a sheep flock

We formulate and investigate the properties of a model framework to mimic the transmission dynamics of the aetiological agent of scrapie in a sheep flock. We derive expressions for summary parameters that characterize transmission scenarios, notably the basic reproduction number R(0) and the mean generation time T(g). The timescale of epidemic outbreaks is expressed in terms of R(0) and cumulants of the generation time distribution. We discuss the relative contributions to the overall rate of transmission of horizontal and vertical routes during invasion and in endemicity. Simplified models are used to obtain analytical insight into the characteristics of the endemic state.     

Prevalence of scrapie infection in Great Britain: interpreting the results of the 1997-1998 abattoir survey

An accurate estimate of the prevalence of scrapie infection in the Great Britain (GB) sheep flock is essential when assessing any potential risk to human health through exposure to sheep transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs). One method for assessing the prevalence is to sample sheep intended for human consumption using a diagnostic test capable of detecting infected animals prior to the onset of clinical signs. An abattoir survey conducted in Great Britain in 1997-1998 tested brain samples from 2809 apparently healthy sheep of which none was found to be positive for scrapie by histopathology or immunohistochemistry (IHC) although 10 were positive for scrapie-associated fibrils (SAF). Subsequently, the tonsils from a subset of the animals sampled were examined using IHC, one of which tested positive. To interpret these results we use a likelihood-based approach, which accounts for the variation in the prevalence of infection with age and test sensitivity and specificity with stage of infection. Combining the results for all of the diagnostic tests yields an estimate of the prevalence of scrapie infection in the GB sheep flock of 0.22% (95% confidence interval: 0.01-0.97%). Moreover, our analysis suggests that all of the diagnostic tests used are very specific (greater than 99%). Indeed, only SAF detection yields a specificity estimate of less than 100%, which helps to account for the high number of samples found to be positive for SAF.