The Effect of Selection on the Phenotypic Variance

We consider the within-generation changes of phenotypic variance caused by selection w(x) which acts on a quantitative trait x. If before selection the trait has Gaussian distribution, its variance decreases if the second derivative of the logarithm of w(x) is negative for all x, while if it is positive for all x, the variance increases.     

Social and Demographic Influences on Mothering Style in Pigtail Macaques

This study represents the first investigation of variability in mothering styles in pigtail macaques, Macaca nemestrina nemestrina. Fifteen group-living mother-infant pairs were focally observed during the first 12 wk of infant life and several measures of maternal and infant behavior were recorded. Variability in mothering styles occurred along the three dimensions of maternal protectivencss, rejection, and warmth. Maternal parity and aggression received by mothers were the best predictors of variability in protectiveness and warmth, whereas variability in rejection was not predicted by any of the variables considered. This study provides clear evidence that aggression towards mothers and previous maternal experience have an important influence on mothering styles in pigtail macaques.     

Trends in Height and BMI of 6‐Year‐Old Children during the Nutrition Transition in Chile

Objective: We analyzed trends in height and BMI and their interaction in 6‐year‐old Chilean children over the last 15 years. Research Methods and Procedures: We calculated height for age z‐score (HAZ), BMI z‐score, prevalence of obesity, underweight, and stunting from cross‐sectional national school‐based annual population surveys in 1987, 1990, 1993, 1996, 2000, and 2002. Using mixed model analysis, we determined the risk of obesity according to height over time as odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence interval and the potential influence of height and year of study on BMI z‐score. Results: Over the study period, height increased by 2.8 cm in boys and 2.6 cm in girls, whereas stunting declined from 5% to 2% in both. Tallness increased by ～2%, BMI z‐score increased from +0.3 to +0.65 in boys and to +0.62 in girls, and HAZ increased from ?0.47 in boys and ?0.45 in girls to 0 in 2002. Underweight declined from 4% to 3%, whereas obesity rose from 5% to ～14%. The probability of obesity among tall children was significantly greater than that for normal height children (OR, 2.3 to 3.5). The lowest obesity risk was observed between ?2 and ?1 HAZ. The OR for obesity in the stunted relative to normal height children was variable, ranging from 1.23 to 0.65, whereas it was significant and consistently positive (1.1 to 1.7) for boys and girls when it was compared with the lowest obesity risk according to height. Discussion: Tallness is significantly associated with increased obesity risk in children, while stunting is also associated, but to a lesser degree.     

植物生长抽梢期和气候因子对株高生长影响

利用西双版纳热带植物园的热带植物物候观测资料和气候资料,通过对热带植物株高生长偏差、生长抽梢期和气候因子的分析,探讨了三者的关系。结果表明,热带植物生长抽梢期变长不一定影响株高生长,而且与株高生长偏差的关系也小于气候因子与株高生长偏差的关系。同时,热带植物生长抽梢期对气候因子和株高生长偏差之间关系的贡献很小。因此,可以认为热带植物的生长期对植被生产力的促进作用较弱。     

Childbirth Moderates the Genetic and Environmental Influences on BMI in Adult Twins

We report a study of the moderating role that the number of childbirths has on the genetic and environmental influences on BMI variation. We used a classical twin design with a sample of 704 adult female twins (334 monozygotic and 370 dizygotic). A gene–environment interaction (G × E) model was applied to estimate the moderating effects of childbearing. Results show that age and number of children exert a significant positive main effect on BMI. Furthermore, we found significant moderating effects of childbearing, with a larger number of children associated with an increased sensitivity to environmental factors.     

性状遗传力与QTL方差对标记辅助选择效果的影响

在采用动物模型标记辅助最佳线性无偏预测方法对个体育种值进行估计的基础上,模拟了在一个闭锁群体内连续对单个性状选择10个世代的情形,并系统地比较了性状遗传力和QTL方差对标记辅助选择所获得的遗传进展、QTL增效基因频率和群体近交系数变化的影响。结果表明：在对高遗传力和QTL方差较小的性状实施标记辅助选择时,可望获得更大的遗传进展;遗传力越高,QTL方差越大,则QTL增效基因频率的上升速度越快;遗传力较高时,群体近交系数上升的速度较为缓慢,而QTL方差对群体近交系数上升速度的影响则不甚明显。结合前人关于标记辅助选择相对效率的研究结果,可以认为：当选择性状的遗传力和QTL方差为中等水平时,标记辅助选择可望获得理想的效果。     

The Action of Purifying Selection,Mutation and Drift on Fitness Epistatic Systems

For different fitness mutational models, with epistasis introduced, we simulated the consequences of drift (D scenario) or mutation, selection, and drift (MSD scenario) in populations at the MSD balance subsequently subjected to bottlenecks of size N = 2, 10, 50 during 100 generations. No “conversion” of nonadditive into additive variance was observed, all components of the fitness genetic variance initially increasing with the inbreeding coefficient F and subsequently decreasing to zero (D) or to an equilibrium value (MSD). In the D scenario, epistasis had no appreciable effect on inbreeding depression and that on the temporal change of variance components was relevant only for high rates of strong epistatic mutation. In parallel, between-line differentiation in mean fitness accelerated with F and that in additive variance reached a maximum at F ∼ 0.6–0.7, both processes being intensified by strong epistasis. In the MSD scenario, however, the increase in additive variance was smaller, as it was used by selection to purge inbreeding depression (N ≥ 10), and selection prevented between-line differentiation. Epistasis, either synergistic or antagonistic (this leading to multiple adaptive peaks), had no appreciable effect on MSD results nor, therefore, on the evolutionary rate of fitness change.THE roles of genetic drift and natural selection in shaping the genetic variation of fitness due to segregation at epistatic loci have often been discussed since Wright''s (1931) pioneering treatment of the subject. In general, the pertinent analyses have been usually elaborated within an analytical framework where changes in the mean and the components of the genetic variance exclusively due to drift were first considered, this being followed by an examination of the conditions that may subsequently allow for a more rapid selection response and/or facilitate the movement of populations to new adaptive peaks.Theoretically, it is well known that the contribution of neutral additive loci to the additive genetic variance of metric traits in populations decreases linearly as the inbreeding coefficient F increases, until it ultimately vanishes when fixation is attained (Wright 1951). For neutral nonadditive loci, however, that contribution may initially increase until a critical F value is reached and then subsequently decline to zero. This is the case of simple dominant loci (Robertson 1952; Willis and Orr 1993), and it also applies to two-locus models showing either additive × additive epistasis (Cockerham and Tachida 1988; Goodnight 1988) or more complex epistasis involving dominance at the single-locus level (Cheverud and Routman 1996; López-Fanjul et al. 1999, 2000; Goodnight 2000). Furthermore, those models have been extended to cover multiple additive × additive epistatic systems (Barton and Turelli 2004, López-Fanjul et al. 2006).In parallel, laboratory experiments have also studied the impact of population bottlenecks on the additive variance of metric traits (see reviews by López-Fanjul et al. 2003 and Van Buskirk and Willi 2006). For morphological traits not strongly correlated with fitness, a decrease in their additive variance together with little or no inbreeding depression was often observed, both results being compatible with the corresponding additive expectations and suggesting that the standing variation of those traits is mainly controlled by quasi-neutral additive alleles. Using typical estimates of mutational parameters, Zhang et al. (2004) showed that these experimental results can be explained by assuming a model of pleiotropic and real stabilizing selection acting on the pertinent trait. On the other hand, life-history traits closely connected to fitness usually show strong inbreeding depression and a dramatic increase in additive variance after a brief period of inbreeding or bottlenecking, indicating that much of that variance should be due to deleterious recessive alleles segregating at low frequencies. However, it should be kept in mind that experimental results cannot discern between simple dominance and dominance with additional epistasis as causes of inbreeding-induced changes in the additive variance.In their discussion of the shifting-balance theory (Wright 1931), Wade and Goodnight emphasized the evolutionary importance of the “conversion” of epistatic variance into additive variance, proposing that drift-induced excesses in the additive variance for fitness available to selection could enhance the potential for local adaptation, a phenomenon that was not discussed in the original formulation of Wright''s theory (Wade and Goodnight 1998; Goodnight and Wade 2000; but see Coyne et al. 1997, 2000). However, the additive variance is inflated only under restrictive conditions that often involve low-frequency deleterious recessive alleles (Robertson 1952; López-Fanjul et al. 2002), so that a drift-induced excess in the additive variance of fitness will be associated with inbreeding depression and, therefore, it is unlikely to produce a net increase in the adaptive potential of populations. In addition, previous considerations were based on the theoretical analysis of the behavior of neutral genetic variation after bottlenecks, and the role of selection acting on epistatic systems controlling fitness has not been studied.In this article we used analytical and simulation methods to investigate the contribution of epistatic systems to the change in the mean and the genetic components of variance of fitness during bottlenecking, due to the joint action of mutation, natural selection, and genetic drift (MSD). To develop a biologically reasonable model, we assumed that mutations show a distribution of homozygous and heterozygous effects close to those experimentally observed in Drosophila melanogaster, and we imposed different types of epistasis on this basic system. The pattern and strength of epistatic effects on fitness is largely unknown, but synergism between homozygous deleterious mutations at different loci has often been reported in Drosophila mutation-accumulation experiments (Mukai 1969; Ávila et al. 2006). Therefore, we studied the consequences of synergistic epistasis in pairs of loci by increasing the deleterious effect of the double homozygote above that expected from the deleterious effects of the homozygotes at both loci involved. However, to explore the consequences of bottlenecking in a multiple-peak adaptive surface, we also considered cases of antagonistic epistasis where, at each pair of loci, the fitness of the double homozygote for the deleterious alleles was larger than expected. Of course, other epistatic models could also be considered, including those showing higher-order interaction effects, but the severe shortage of relevant empirical data makes the choice highly subjective and, consequently, we restricted our analysis to the simplest case. On the other hand, our procedure has the practical advantage of allowing the definition of epistasis by the addition of a single parameter to those describing the properties of individual loci.Our aim was to describe and analyze drift-induced changes in the components of the genetic variance of fitness, where neutral predictions will be reliable only during extreme and brief bottlenecks. For moderate bottleneck sizes or long-term inbreeding, it becomes necessary to consider the concurrent effects of natural selection both on the standing variation and on that arisen by new mutation. Moreover, the nature of the genetic variability of fitness in the base population, arisen by mutation and shaped by natural selection and drift, is critical for the assessment of the consequences of subsequent bottlenecks. For nonepistatic models, the genetic properties of the trait can be theoretically inferred from the pertinent mutational parameters and effective population sizes by assuming a balance between mutation, selection, and drift. This can be numerically achieved using diffusion theory, and reliable approximations can be easily calculated by analytical methods (García-Dorado 2007). Notwithstanding, the analytical study of the contribution of epistasis to the genetic properties of fitness at the MSD balance becomes particularly difficult and it must be complemented with computer simulation.     

The Modern Demographic Transition: An Analysis of Subsistence Choices and Reproductive Consequences

This paper argues that fertility transition comes about when personal material well-being is determined less by personal relationships than by formal education and skill training. This transformation occurs when changes in opportunity structure and the labor market increasingly reward educationally acquired skills and perspectives, for these changes have the effect of sharply limiting or eliminating the expected intergenerational income flows from or through children. This modification and extension of Caldwell's wealth flows model permits us to account for historical-, regional-, and social-class-specific differences in the onset and pace of fertility transition, and points to new, macro-level socioeconomic indicators whose ability to account for historical variation infertility is validated by a preliminary test.     

Monogamy Has a Fixation Advantage Based on Fitness Variance in an Ideal Promiscuity Group

We consider an ideal promiscuity group of females, which implies that all males have the same average mating success. If females have concealed ovulation, then the males’ paternity chances are equal. We find that male-based monogamy will be fixed in females’ promiscuity group when the stochastic Darwinian selection is described by a Markov chain. We point out that in huge populations the relative advantage (difference between average fitness of different strategies) determines primarily the end of evolution; in the case of neutrality (means are equal) the smallest variance guarantees fixation (absorption) advantage; when the means and variances are the same, then the higher third moment determines which types will be fixed in the Markov chains.     

The Role of Life Cycle and Migration in Selection for Variance in Offspring Number

For two genotypes that have the same mean number of offspring but differ in the variance in offspring number, naturalselection will favor the genotype with lower variance. In such cases, the average growth rate is not sufficient as a measure of fitness or as a predictor of fixation probability. However, the effect of variance in offspring number on the fixationprobability of mutant strategies has been calculated under several scenarios with the general conclusion that variance in offspring number reduces fitness in proportion to the inverse of the population size [Gillespie, J., Genetics 76:601–606, 1974; Proulx, S.R., Theor. Popul. Biol. 58:33–47, 2000]. This relationship becomes more complicated under a metapopulation scenario where the “effective” population size depends on migration rate, population structure, and lifecycle. It is shown that in a life cycle where reproduction and migration (the birth-migration-regulation life cycle, or BMR)occur prior to density regulation within every deme, the fitness of a strategy depends on migration rate. When migration rates are near zero, the fitness of the strategy is determined by the size of individual demes, so that the strategy favoredin small populations tends to be fixed. As migration rate increases and approaches panmixis between demes, the fitness ofa reproductive strategy approaches what its value would be in a single, panmictic deme with a population size correspondingtothe census size of the metapopulation. Interestingly, when the life cycle is characterized by having density regulation in each deme prior to migration (the BRM life cycle) the fixation probability of a strategy is independent of migration rate. These results are found to be qualitatively consistent with the individual-based simulation results in Shpak [Theor. Biosci.124:65–85, 2005]. An erratum to this article can be found at     

The Neolithic Demographic Transition in the Central Balkans: population dynamics reconstruction based on new radiocarbon evidence

In this paper, we test the hypothesis of the Neolithic Demographic Transition in the Central Balkan Early Neolithic (6250–5300 BC) by applying the method of summed calibrated probability distributions to the set of more than 200 new radiocarbon dates from Serbia. The results suggest that there was an increase in population size after the first farmers arrived to the study area around 6250 BC. This increase lasted for approximately 250 years and was followed by a decrease in the population size proxy after 6000 BC, reaching its minimum around 5800 BC. This was followed by another episode of growth until 5600 BC when population size proxy rapidly declined, reaching the minimum again around 5500 BC. The reconstructed intrinsic growth rate value indicates that the first episode of growth might have been fuelled both by high fertility and migrations, potentially related to the effects of the 8.2 ky event. The second episode of population growth after 5800 BC was probably owing to the high fertility alone. It remains unclear what caused the episodes of population decrease.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Cross-disciplinary approaches to prehistoric demography''.     

The Impact of the Demographic Transition on Dengue in Thailand: Insights from a Statistical Analysis and Mathematical Modeling

Background

An increase in the average age of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases has been reported in Thailand. The cause of this increase is not known. Possible explanations include a reduction in transmission due to declining mosquito populations, declining contact between human and mosquito, and changes in reporting. We propose that a demographic shift toward lower birth and death rates has reduced dengue transmission and lengthened the interval between large epidemics.

Methods and Findings

Using data from each of the 72 provinces of Thailand, we looked for associations between force of infection (a measure of hazard, defined as the rate per capita at which susceptible individuals become infected) and demographic and climactic variables. We estimated the force of infection from the age distribution of cases from 1985 to 2005. We find that the force of infection has declined by 2% each year since a peak in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Contrary to recent findings suggesting that the incidence of DHF has increased in Thailand, we find a small but statistically significant decline in DHF incidence since 1985 in a majority of provinces. The strongest predictor of the change in force of infection and the mean force of infection is the median age of the population. Using mathematical simulations of dengue transmission we show that a reduced birth rate and a shift in the population''s age structure can explain the shift in the age distribution of cases, reduction of the force of infection, and increase in the periodicity of multiannual oscillations of DHF incidence in the absence of other changes.

Conclusions

Lower birth and death rates decrease the flow of susceptible individuals into the population and increase the longevity of immune individuals. The increase in the proportion of the population that is immune increases the likelihood that an infectious mosquito will feed on an immune individual, reducing the force of infection. Though the force of infection has decreased by half, we find that the critical vaccination fraction has not changed significantly, declining from an average of 85% to 80%. Clinical guidelines should consider the impact of continued increases in the age of dengue cases in Thailand. Countries in the region lagging behind Thailand in the demographic transition may experience the same increase as their population ages. The impact of demographic changes on the force of infection has been hypothesized for other diseases, but, to our knowledge, this is the first observation of this phenomenon. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Population, Gender and Politics: Demographic Change in Rural North India

Population, Gender and Politics: Demographic Change in Rural North India. Roger Jeffery and Patricia Jeffery. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1997. 278 pp.     

Demographic Parameters of Rural and Urban Adult Resident Canada Geese in Georgia

ABSTRACT In many urban metropolitan areas, resident Canada goose (Branta canadensis) populations have grown to nuisance levels in spite of increasing harvest opportunity. To document differences in demographic parameters between urban and rural geese, I estimated probabilities of survival, recapture, recovery, and fidelity for adult resident Canada geese between 2001 and 2006 using banding, live recapture, and dead recovery data from 2 distinct banding locations in Georgia, USA. Adult survival rates were higher for urban geese (0.958, SE = 0.020) than for rural geese (0.682, SE = 0.049). Using estimated recovery probabilities of 0.505 (SE = 0.107) for urban and 0.463 (SE = 0.045) for rural geese, along with current estimates of crippling loss and reporting rate, the estimated mean harvest rate for urban geese was 0.029 (SE = 0.006) and for rural geese was 0.202 (SE = 0.020). Fidelity rates were similar between urban (0.730, SE = 0.033) and rural geese (0.713, SE = 0.069). This information suggests that urban segments of the Canada goose population have substantially higher survival than rural geese and are harvested at a very low rate, and that liberalizing hunting regulations may have little impact on Georgia's urban goose population. Wildlife managers may need to consider options other than sport hunting to control nuisance goose populations in urban areas.     

鹅掌楸配子选择与雄性繁殖适合度

在多父本等量花粉混合授粉的交配实验设计基础上, 利用SSR分子标记对其子代进行父本分析, 研究鹅掌楸的配子选择与雄性繁殖适合度。参试亲本为鹅掌楸2个种的5个单株(鹅掌楸(Liriodendron chinense)2株, 即FY和LS; 北美鹅掌楸(L. tulipifera)3株, 即LYS、MSL和NK)。结果表明: 鹅掌楸的配子选择个体间差异较大。作为母本, NK和LYS倾向于选择异种雄配子, 而MSL和LS则倾向于选择同种雄配子; 在同种雄配子的选择中, NK、LYS和LS倾向于自交, 而MSL则倾向于异交。以北美鹅掌楸为母本时, 北美鹅掌楸与鹅掌楸的雄性繁殖贡献率分别为45.5%和54.5%, 北美鹅掌楸的雄性繁殖适合度为鹅掌楸的0.556倍。以鹅掌楸为母本时, 二者的繁殖贡献率分别为15.6%和84.4%, 北美鹅掌楸的雄性繁殖适合度为鹅掌楸的0.123倍。总体上看, 鹅掌楸的雄性繁殖适合度高于北美鹅掌楸, 鹅掌楸与北美鹅掌楸均表现为自交亲和。