On mathematical theory of selection: continuous time population dynamics

Mathematical theory of selection is developed within the frameworks of general models of inhomogeneous populations with continuous time. Methods that allow us to study the distribution dynamics under natural selection and to construct explicit solutions of the models are developed. All statistical characteristics of interest, such as the mean values of the fitness or any trait can be computed effectively, and the results depend in a crucial way on the initial distribution. The developed theory provides an effective method for solving selection systems; it reduces the initial complex model to a special system of ordinary differential equations (the escort system). Applications of the method to the Price equations are given; the solutions of some particular inhomogeneous Malthusian, Ricker and logistic-like models used but not solved in the literature are derived in explicit form.     

A finite locus effect diffusion model for the evolution of a quantitative trait

A diffusion model is constructed for the joint distribution of absolute locus effect sizes and allele frequencies for loci contributing to an additive quantitative trait under selection in a haploid, panmictic population. The model is designed to approximate a discrete model exactly in the limit as both population size and the number of loci affecting the trait tend to infinity. For the case when all loci have the same absolute effect size, formal multiple-timescale asymptotics are used to predict the long-time response of the population trait mean to selection. For the case where loci can take on either of two distinct effect sizes, not necessarily with equal probability, numerical solutions of the system indicate that response to selection of a quantitative trait is insensitive to the variability of the distribution of effect sizes when mutation is negligible.     

Mutation Rate Evolution in Replicator Dynamics

The mutation rate of an organism is itself evolvable. In stable environments, if faithful replication is costless, theory predicts that mutation rates will evolve to zero. However, positive mutation rates can evolve in novel or fluctuating environments, as analytical and empirical studies have shown. Previous work on this question has focused on environments that fluctuate independently of the evolving population. Here we consider fluctuations that arise from frequency-dependent selection in the evolving population itself. We investigate how the dynamics of competing traits can induce selective pressure on the rates of mutation between these traits. To address this question, we introduce a theoretical framework combining replicator dynamics and adaptive dynamics. We suppose that changes in mutation rates are rare, compared to changes in the traits under direct selection, so that the expected evolutionary trajectories of mutation rates can be obtained from analysis of pairwise competition between strains of different rates. Depending on the nature of frequency-dependent trait dynamics, we demonstrate three possible outcomes of this competition. First, if trait frequencies are at a mutation–selection equilibrium, lower mutation rates can displace higher ones. Second, if trait dynamics converge to a heteroclinic cycle—arising, for example, from “rock-paper-scissors” interactions—mutator strains succeed against non-mutators. Third, in cases where selection alone maintains all traits at positive frequencies, zero and nonzero mutation rates can coexist indefinitely. Our second result suggests that relatively high mutation rates may be observed for traits subject to cyclical frequency-dependent dynamics.     

Invasion and adaptive evolution for individual-based spatially structured populations

The interplay between space and evolution is an important issue in population dynamics, that is particularly crucial in the emergence of polymorphism and spatial patterns. Recently, biological studies suggest that invasion and evolution are closely related. Here, we model the interplay between space and evolution starting with an individual-based approach and show the important role of parameter scalings on clustering and invasion. We consider a stochastic discrete model with birth, death, competition, mutation and spatial diffusion, where all the parameters may depend both on the position and on the phenotypic trait of individuals. The spatial motion is driven by a reflected diffusion in a bounded domain. The interaction is modelled as a trait competition between individuals within a given spatial interaction range. First, we give an algorithmic construction of the process. Next, we obtain large population approximations, as weak solutions of nonlinear reaction–diffusion equations. As the spatial interaction range is fixed, the nonlinearity is nonlocal. Then, we make the interaction range decrease to zero and prove the convergence to spatially localized nonlinear reaction–diffusion equations. Finally, a discussion of three concrete examples is proposed, based on simulations of the microscopic individual-based model. These examples illustrate the strong effects of the spatial interaction range on the emergence of spatial and phenotypic diversity (clustering and polymorphism) and on the interplay between invasion and evolution. The simulations focus on the qualitative differences between local and nonlocal interactions.      

Alternative solution of the simplest model of enzymatic synthesis of nucleic acids by homotopy perturbation method

Development of methods for obtaining approximate analytical solutions of nonlinear differential equations and their systems is a rapidly developing field of mathematical physics. Earlier, an approximate solution of the simplest system of kinetic enzymatic equations for calculating dynamics of complementary strands of nucleic acids was obtained. In this study, we consider an alternative approach to selecting the basic linear approximation of the used method, which makes it possible to obtain more accurate analytical solutions of the set problem.     

Quantifying selection acting on a complex trait using allele frequency time series data

When selection is acting on a large genetically diverse population, beneficial alleles increase in frequency. This fact can be used to map quantitative trait loci by sequencing the pooled DNA from the population at consecutive time points and observing allele frequency changes. Here, we present a population genetic method to analyze time series data of allele frequencies from such an experiment. Beginning with a range of proposed evolutionary scenarios, the method measures the consistency of each with the observed frequency changes. Evolutionary theory is utilized to formulate equations of motion for the allele frequencies, following which likelihoods for having observed the sequencing data under each scenario are derived. Comparison of these likelihoods gives an insight into the prevailing dynamics of the system under study. We illustrate the method by quantifying selective effects from an experiment, in which two phenotypically different yeast strains were first crossed and then propagated under heat stress (Parts L, Cubillos FA, Warringer J, et al. [14 co-authors]. 2011. Revealing the genetic structure of a trait by sequencing a population under selection. Genome Res). From these data, we discover that about 6% of polymorphic sites evolve nonneutrally under heat stress conditions, either because of their linkage to beneficial (driver) alleles or because they are drivers themselves. We further identify 44 genomic regions containing one or more candidate driver alleles, quantify their apparent selective advantage, obtain estimates of recombination rates within the regions, and show that the dynamics of the drivers display a strong signature of selection going beyond additive models. Our approach is applicable to study adaptation in a range of systems under different evolutionary pressures.     

Lévy flights in evolutionary ecology

We are interested in modeling Darwinian evolution resulting from the interplay of phenotypic variation and natural selection through ecological interactions. The population is modeled as a stochastic point process whose generator captures the probabilistic dynamics over continuous time of birth, mutation, and death, as influenced by each individual's trait values, and interactions between individuals. An offspring usually inherits the trait values of her progenitor, except when a random mutation causes the offspring to take an instantaneous mutation step at birth to new trait values. In the case we are interested in, the probability distribution of mutations has a heavy tail and belongs to the domain of attraction of a stable law and the corresponding diffusion admits jumps. This could be seen as an alternative to Gould and Eldredge's model of evolutionary punctuated equilibria. We investigate the large-population limit with allometric demographies: larger populations made up of smaller individuals which reproduce and die faster, as is typical for micro-organisms. We show that depending on the allometry coefficient the limit behavior of the population process can be approximated by nonlinear Lévy flights of different nature: either deterministic, in the form of non-local fractional reaction-diffusion equations, or stochastic, as nonlinear super-processes with the underlying reaction and a fractional diffusion operator. These approximation results demonstrate the existence of such non-trivial fractional objects; their uniqueness is also proved.     

Analytical results on the neutral non-equilibrium allele frequency spectrum based on diffusion theory

The allele frequency spectrum has attracted considerable interest for the simultaneous inference of the demographic and adaptive history of populations. In a recent study, Evans et al. (2007) developed a forward diffusion equation describing the allele frequency spectrum, when the population is subject to size changes, selection and mutation. From the diffusion equation, the authors derived a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) for the moments in a Wright–Fisher diffusion with varying population size and constant selection. Here, we present an explicit solution for this system of ODEs with variable population size, but without selection, and apply this result to derive the expected spectrum of a sample for time-varying population size. We use this forward-in-time-solution of the allele frequency spectrum to obtain the backward-in-time-solution previously derived via coalescent theory by Griffiths and Tavaré (1998). Finally, we discuss the applicability of the theoretical results to the analysis of nucleotide polymorphism data.     

根表面养分吸收通量和根围溶质浓度的近似解析解

该文用Nye-Tinker-Barber模型来研究植物根系表面的养分吸收通量和根围溶质浓度的近似解析解。将根围区域分为远场区域和近场区域, 在远场用相似变量, 在近场用尺度变换, 将远场解在根表面展开并与近场解进行待定函数的匹配, 从而获得对流扩散方程根表面通量和浓度的一阶近似解析解, 该解能够简化到扩散方程的解的形式。对氮、钾、硫、磷、镁、钙的养分吸收通量和氮、钾的浓度分别进行数值模拟, 比较模型的数值解、Roose的近似解析解和该文的近似解析解。结果表明: 在扩散方程中, 6种元素通量的解析解与Roose解析解相近, 但均高于数值解, 钾和磷的通量在短时间内迅速衰减; 钾和氮浓度的全局近似解析解与Roose解析解接近, 并与数值解的变化趋势一致。在对流扩散方程中, 除氮外的5种元素通量的近似解较Roose的解析解更接近于数值解, 且没有奇性。     

Analytical solutions for distributions of chemotactic bacteria

This paper reports general and specialized results on analytical solutions to the governing phenomenological equations for chemotactic redistribution and population growth of motile bacteria. It is shown that the number of bacteria cells per unit volume,b, is proportional to a certain prescribed function ofs, the concentration of the critical substrate chemotactic agent, for steady-state solutions through an arbitrary spatial region with a boundary that is impermeable to bacteria cell transport. Moreover, it is demonstrated that the steady-state solution forb ands is unique for a prescribed total number of bacteria cells in the spatial region and a generic Robin boundary condition ons. The latter solution can be approximated to desired accuracy in terms of the Poisson-Green's function associated with the spatial region. Also, as shown by example, closed-form exact steady-state solutions are obtainable for certain consumption rate functions and geometrically symmetric spatial regions. A solutional procedure is formulated for the initialvalue problem in cases for which significant population growth is present and bacteria cell redistribution due to motility and chemotactic flow proceeds slowly relative to the diffusion of the chemoattractant substrate. Finally, a remarkably simple exact analytical solution is reported for a stradily propagating plane-wave which features motility, chemotactic motion and bacteria population growth regulated by substrate diffusion.     

Analysis of a stochastic predator–prey model with applications to intrahost HIV genetic diversity

During an infection, HIV experiences strong selection by immune system T cells. Recent experimental work has shown that MHC escape mutations form an important pathway for HIV to avoid such selection. In this paper, we study a model of MHC escape mutation. The model is a predator–prey model with two prey, composed of two HIV variants, and one predator, the immune system CD8 cells. We assume that one HIV variant is visible to CD8 cells and one is not. The model takes the form of a system of stochastic differential equations. Motivated by well-known results concerning the short life-cycle of HIV intrahost, we assume that HIV population dynamics occur on a faster time scale then CD8 population dynamics. This separation of time scales allows us to analyze our model using an asymptotic approach. Using this model we study the impact of an MHC escape mutation on the population dynamics and genetic evolution of the intrahost HIV population. From the perspective of population dynamics, we show that the competition between the visible and invisible HIV variants can reach steady states in which either a single variant exists or in which coexistence occurs depending on the parameter regime. We show that in some parameter regimes the end state of the system is stochastic. From a genetics perspective, we study the impact of the population dynamics on the lineages of an HIV sample taken after an escape mutation occurs. We show that the lineages go through severe bottlenecks and that in certain parameter regimes the lineage distribution can be characterized by a Kingman coalescent. Our results depend on methods from diffusion theory and coalescent theory.     

Genetic and Statistical Analyses of Strong Selection on Polygenic Traits: What,Me Normal?

We develop a general population genetic framework for analyzing selection on many loci, and apply it to strong truncation and disruptive selection on an additive polygenic trait. We first present statistical methods for analyzing the infinitesimal model, in which offspring breeding values are normally distributed around the mean of the parents, with fixed variance. These show that the usual assumption of a Gaussian distribution of breeding values in the population gives remarkably accurate predictions for the mean and the variance, even when disruptive selection generates substantial deviations from normality. We then set out a general genetic analysis of selection and recombination. The population is represented by multilocus cumulants describing the distribution of haploid genotypes, and selection is described by the relation between mean fitness and these cumulants. We provide exact recursions in terms of generating functions for the effects of selection on non-central moments. The effects of recombination are simply calculated as a weighted sum over all the permutations produced by meiosis. Finally, the new cumulants that describe the next generation are computed from the non-central moments. Although this scheme is applied here in detail only to selection on an additive trait, it is quite general. For arbitrary epistasis and linkage, we describe a consistent infinitesimal limit in which the short-term selection response is dominated by infinitesimal allele frequency changes and linkage disequilibria. Numerical multilocus results show that the standard Gaussian approximation gives accurate predictions for the dynamics of the mean and genetic variance in this limit. Even with intense truncation selection, linkage disequilibria of order three and higher never cause much deviation from normality. Thus, the empirical deviations frequently found between predicted and observed responses to artificial selection are not caused by linkage-disequilibrium-induced departures from normality. Disruptive selection can generate substantial four-way disequilibria, and hence kurtosis; but even then, the Gaussian assumption predicts the variance accurately. In contrast to the apparent simplicity of the infinitesimal limit, data suggest that changes in genetic variance after 10 or more generations of selection are likely to be dominated by allele frequency dynamics that depend on genetic details.     

Moments,cumulants, and polygenic dynamics

A new approach for describing the evolution of polygenic traits subject to selection and mutation is presented. Differential equations for the change of cumulants of the allelic frequency distribution at a particular locus and for the cumulants of the distributions of genotypic and phenotypic values are derived. The derivation is based on the assumptions of random mating, no sex differences, absence of random drift, additive gene action, linkage equilibrium, and Hardy-Weinberg proportions. Cumulants are a set of parameters that, like moments, describe the shape of a probability density. Compared with moments, however, they have properties that make them a much more convenient tool for investigating polygenic traits. Applications to directional and stabilizing selection are given.     

Approximate analytical solutions of root surface nutrient uptake flux and rhizosphere solute concentrations

该文用Nye-Tinker-Barber模型来研究植物根系表面的养分吸收通量和根围溶质浓度的近似解析解。将根围区域分为远场区域和近场区域, 在远场用相似变量, 在近场用尺度变换, 将远场解在根表面展开并与近场解进行待定函数的匹配, 从而获得对流扩散方程根表面通量和浓度的一阶近似解析解, 该解能够简化到扩散方程的解的形式。对氮、钾、硫、磷、镁、钙的养分吸收通量和氮、钾的浓度分别进行数值模拟, 比较模型的数值解、Roose的近似解析解和该文的近似解析解。结果表明: 在扩散方程中, 6种元素通量的解析解与Roose解析解相近, 但均高于数值解, 钾和磷的通量在短时间内迅速衰减; 钾和氮浓度的全局近似解析解与Roose解析解接近, 并与数值解的变化趋势一致。在对流扩散方程中, 除氮外的5种元素通量的近似解较Roose的解析解更接近于数值解, 且没有奇性。     

Analytical solution of the evolution dynamics on a multiplicative-fitness landscape

In an infinite population the frequency distribution of individuals carrying a given number of mutations obeys a set of recursion equations, the equilibrium solution of which describes the mutation-selection balance. Although this solution is well-known in the case of a multiplicative-fitness landscape, where it is assumed that all mutations are deleterious and that each new mutation reduces the fitness of the individual by the same fraction, we are not aware of the existence of an analytical solution for the full dynamics. Using the generating function approach, we present here an explicit analytical solution for the frequency distribution recursion equations valid for all generations and initial conditions.This research was supported by Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP), Proj. No. 99/09644-9. The work of J.F.F. was supported in part by Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq).     

Analytical solution to the initial-value problem for traveling bands of chemotactic bacteria

The governing parabolic partial differential equations for the diffusion and chemotactic transport of a distribution of bacteria and for the diffusion and bacterial degradation of a distribution of chemotactic agent are supplemented with boundary and initial conditions that model the recent capillary tube experiments on the formation and propagation of traveling bands of chemotactic bacteria. An iteration procedure that takes the exact solution to the “diffusionless” problem as a first approximation is applied to solve the equations of the complete theoretical model. It is shown that satisfactory agreement with experiment obtains for the analytical results of the first approximation which relate the velocity of propagation and total number of bacteria cells per unit cross-sectional area in a traveling band to the constant parameters in the governing equations and supplementary conditions. The second approximation is shown to yield approximate analytical expressions for the solution functions which are in close correspondence with previously derived traveling band solutions for values of time after the initial period of formation.     

Further characterization of the long-run population distribution of a deleterious gene

In a population of constant size, there is an equilibrium distribution for every deleterious autosomal dominant gene. This equilibrium represents the balance between selection and mutation. The purpose of this paper is to describe an approximate method of computing the equilibrium distribution and an exact method of computing its cumulants. If the surrounding population has experienced prolonged growth or decline, then an equilibrium does not develop. However, one can show that the variance of the number of carriers divided by the current population size does stabilize; this quantity is an increasing function of the growth rate.