生态系统模拟模型的研究进展

从四个方面概述了生态系统模拟模型的发展现状：1)个体及种群,种群动态模型主要模拟在一个生境中单个种的动、植物个体出生或发芽、成长及其死亡过程,还有种内竞争和种间相互作用,主要分析生境中生物之间的相互作用。主要概述了林窗模型和土壤一植物一大气系统模型。2)群落与生态系统,概述了生态系统生产力模型、生物地球化学循环模型及演替模型。主要模拟植物种类在整个生态系统发展过程中的变化,以及植被类型的转变和相关的生物地球化学循环过程的改变,从而反映生物群落对气候变化的响应。3)景观生态系统,景观动态研究包含了时空两个方面的动态变化,一般可分为随机景观模型和基于过程的景观模型。随机模型用于模拟群落格局在演替过程中的动态变化等,基于过程的景观模型深入研究组成景观的各生态系统的空间结构。4)生物圈与地球生态系统,基于过程的陆地生物地球化学模式被用来研究自然生态系统中碳和其它矿物营养物质的潜在通量和蓄积量,较为流行的模式有陆地生态系统模式TEM、CENTURY、法兰克福生物圈模式FBM、Biome-BGC、卡内基-埃姆斯-斯坦福方法CASA等。这些模式己被用于估算自然生态系统对大气CO2加倍及相关气候变化在区域和全球尺度的平衡响应。最后,结合实际工作展望了生态系统模拟模型在各方面的发展方向。     

城市生态系统的模拟方法：灵敏度模型及其改进

评估城市生态系统的持续发展能力,探讨其持续发展对策是一个复杂的动态问题,需要运用动态的模拟方法进行。由德国著名生态控制论专家Ｆ．Ｖｅｓｔｅｒ和Ａ．Ｖ．Ｈｅｓｌｅｒ教授提出的“灵敏度模型”方法,将系统科学思想、生态控制论方法及城市规划融为一体,解释、模拟、评价和规划城市复杂的系统关系,是模拟城市生态系统很好的方法。本文对该方法进行了改进。改进后的“灵敏度模型”为评价城市持续发展能力、探讨其持续发展对策提供了新的思路。     

毛竹林生态系统能量动态分室新模型

根据福建省建瓯市40块毛竹[Phyllostachys heterocycla(Carr.)Mitford cv.Pubescens]林标准地的能量测定资料,提出毛竹林生态系统能量动态分室新模型,进而对毛竹林各分室的能量进行模拟。结果表明：所建立的新的分室模型更能反映毛竹林生态系统能量动态规律,从而为毛竹林的丰产与稳产提供理论依据。     

云南湿地生态系统鱼类物种濒危机制初探

湿地生态系统是鱼类生存、繁衍之地。由于云南地理位置特殊,鱼类多样性的研究及保护状况不仅在国内具有重要地位,对下游地区或国家也影响极大。因此,应引起国内、外生物学界和保护组织的高度重视。云南鱼类多样性的特点是：种类丰富、特有类群多;区民分复杂物种类型多样;种群小、数量少。对云南钱的种生存构成威胁的外在因素包括;围湖力沼泽化造成的栖息环境破坏,引种产生的物种生存空间及食物的竞争污染引起的生存环境质量下     

长江三峡地区退化生态系统植物群落物种多样性特征

以三峡地区退化生态系统植物群落样地资料为基础,研究了不同退化类型,不同退化程度植物群落的物种多样性特征,分析了植物群落物种多样性与人为干扰和演替的关系,结果表明,受干扰较轻的退化类型,群落物多种多样性比自然生态系统高,受干扰较严重的退化类型,群落物种多样性比自然生态系统低,随着生态系统的退化,群落物种丰富度升高后又逐渐降低,从不同层次来看,乔木层物种多样性逐步减低,灌木层和草本层物种多样性则表现出     

生态系统的天气环境模拟模型

无论对于自然的还是人为管理的生态系统,天气都是最重要的一种环境条件。用系统分析方法对生态系统进行的研究使天气模拟越来越成为非常必要的了。本文首先介绍了一个美国天气模拟模型(WGEN)的数学原理。它用马尔柯夫链和Γ-分布组成降水量子模型,产生逐日降水量。用弱平稳过程和调和分析为工具建立另一个子模型,产生逐日最高温度、最低温度和太阳辐射量。通过常规的统计学方法或灰靶白化方法可以估计模型参数。于是,就可由WGEN生出Alabama州天气模型ALWGEN和北京天气模型BJWGEN。考虑到篇幅有限,本文没有具体介绍上述估计方法,也只是扼要介绍了用Monte Carlo Bootstrap方法进行模型校验和验证的问题。最后,简单地讨论了天气模拟模型的应用。如IPM研究中的风险分析,生态系统管理决策,农业生态区域规划等课题,对天气模型都有现实的或潜在的需要。     

水生模型生态系统研究

本文阐述了水生模型生态系统的基本概念、类型、发展概况及存在问题。着重介绍各种不同类型水生模型生态系统的基本结构、研究方法及其在评价整体生态效应中的应用意义并就目前水生模型生态系统研究中存在的主要问题及今后努力方向作了简要的评述。     

湖泊生态系统动力学模型研究进展

从系统分析在湖泊生态系统动力学研究中的作用出发,对湖泊生态系统的动力学建模过程、方法和软件等进行了总结.在此基础上,综述了国内外湖泊生态系统动力学模型的发展.从1960年代至今,湖泊生态系统动力学模型从简单的零维模型发展到复杂的水质水动力学生态综合模型和生态结构动力学模型,如LakeWeb模型.中国的湖泊生态系统动力学模型研究始于20世纪80年代,主要集中在滇池、太湖、东湖和巢湖等富营养化严重的湖泊以及其他水体.目前,已经开发一些软件用于湖泊生态系统动力学模拟,主要有CEQUALICM、WASP、AQUATOX、PAMOLARE、CAEDYM等,以及用来模拟湖泊能流的软件ECOPATH.湖泊生态系统动力学模型还在监测、数据共享和模型结构、参数选取和不确定性分析等方面存在不足,需在今后的研究中加以改进.     

三个耐旱树种木质部栓塞化的脆弱性及其恢复能力

植物在长期适应赖以生存的自然环境中 ,形成了一套最适宜自身生长发育的生理生态行为 ,采取各种方式来抵御或忍耐水分胁迫的影响。如通过具有深广而茂密的根系格局来保持水分吸收 ,通过气孔调节、角质层障碍作用和小的叶蒸发表面来减少水分散失 ,通过渗透调节和增加组织弹性来保持膨压 ,通过增强原生质耐脱水能力来免受伤害或少受伤害等等。植物遭受干旱危害时 ,首先出现表型反应的多是植物的叶片 ,因此 ,研究植物的耐旱机理多从叶入手 ,对根系类型、分布及根茎比在植物耐旱性方面也有不少报道[1,2 ],而对木质部在干旱适应性反应方面的研究…     

Maximum Likelihood Implementation of an Isolation-with-Migration Model with Three Species for Testing Speciation with Gene Flow

We implement an isolation with migration model for three species, with migration occurring between two closely related species while an out-group species is used to provide further information concerning gene trees and model parameters. The model is implemented in the likelihood framework for analyzing multilocus genomic sequence alignments, with one sequence sampled from each of the three species. The prior distribution of gene tree topology and branch lengths at every locus is calculated using a Markov chain characterization of the genealogical process of coalescent and migration, which integrates over the histories of migration events analytically. The likelihood function is calculated by integrating over branch lengths in the gene trees (coalescent times) numerically. We analyze the model to study the gene tree-species tree mismatch probability and the time to the most recent common ancestor at a locus. The model is used to construct a likelihood ratio test (LRT) of speciation with gene flow. We conduct computer simulations to evaluate the LRT and found that the test is in general conservative, with the false positive rate well below the significance level. For the test to have substantial power, hundreds of loci are needed. Application of the test to a human-chimpanzee-gorilla genomic data set suggests gene flow around the time of speciation of the human and the chimpanzee.     

An Experimental Investigation of Bioconvection in Three Species of Microorganisms*

SYNOPSIS. A series of experiments was carried out on bioconvection using cultures of Polytomella agilis, Tetrahymena pyriformis and Chlamydomonas moewusii. During convection these microorganisms disperse into more and less dense regions causing visible patterns. These patterns, called the cell plan forms, were found to change with increasing Rayleigh numbers above Rc, the lowest concentration gradient at which bioconvection occurs. Hexagonal convection cells were observed near the critical Rayleigh number, Rc. As the Rayleigh number was increased the cell plan form changed from hexagons to 2-dimensional rolls and then to square convection cells. The size of the observed convection cells was less than expected for such a physical phenomenon. This appears to result from an increasing tendency of the microorganisms to circulate near the upper surface at higher Rayleigh numbers. The square convection cells appear to be unique to bioconvection. The inhibition of bioconvection is directly linked to an increased mortality rate. Observations on the nature of negative geotaxis were made which tend to support the statocyst hypothesis.     

多时滞三种群捕食模型的持久性和全局渐近性

研究了一类多时滞非自治三种群捕食模型的持久性和全局渐近稳定性,分别利用比较原理和构造Lyapunov函数方法得到了模型持久生存与全局渐近稳定性的充分条件,并举例说明定理的可行性且利用Matlab绘出图像.     

An Analytical Model of Gene Evolution with 9 Mutation Parameters: An Application to the Amino Acids Coded by the Common Circular Code

We develop here an analytical evolutionary model based on a trinucleotide mutation matrix 64× 64 with nine substitution parameters associated with the three types of substitutions in the three trinucleotide sites. It generalizes the previous models based on the nucleotide mutation matrices 4× 4 and the trinucleotide mutation matrix 64× 64 with three and six parameters. It determines at some time t the exact occurrence probabilities of trinucleotides mutating randomly according to these nine substitution parameters. An application of this model allows an evolutionary study of the common circular code of eukaryotes and prokaryotes and its 12 coded amino acids. The main property of this code is the retrieval of the reading frames in genes, both locally, i.e. anywhere in genes and in particular without a start codon, and automatically with a window of a few nucleotides. However, since its identification in 1996, amino acid information coded by has never been studied. Very unexpectedly, this evolutionary model demonstrates that random substitutions in this code and with particular values for the nine substitutions parameters retrieve after a certain time of evolution a frequency distribution of these 12 amino acids very close to the one coded by the actual genes.     

Optimal Investment in Multi-species Protection: Interacting Species and Ecosystem Health

This article uses an ecological-economic approach to study optimal investment in multi-species protection when species interact in an ecosystem. The analysis is based on a model of stochastic species extinction in which survival probabilities are interdependent. Individual species protection plans can increase a species survival probability within certain limits and contingent upon the existence or absence of other species. Protection plans are costly and the conservation budget is fixed. It is assumed that human well-being depends solely on the services provided by one particular species, but other species contribute to overall ecosystem functioning and thus influence the first species survival probability. One result is that it may be optimal to invest in the protection of those species that do not directly contribute to human well-being, even if biological conservation decisions are exclusively derived from such a utilitarian framework. Another result is that the rank ordering of spending priorities among different species protection plans, as obtained under the assumption of independent species, may be completely reversed by taking species interaction into account. The conclusion is that effective species protection should go beyond targeting individual species, and consider species relations within whole ecosystems as well as overall ecosystem functioning. Ecosystem health is identified as a necessary prerequisite for successful species protection in situ.     

种群Lotka-Volterra捕食系统多个极限环的存在性

通过降维把高维系统平衡点的稳定必及根限环的构造用低维系统来判定和实现,给出了一个三种群Lotka-Volterra捕食系统具有两个小扰动极限环的例子。     

具有共生作用两种群离散耦合Logistic模型混沌控制

针对具有共生作用的离散耦合Logistic模型,首先采用Lyapunov指数方法验证了混沌现象的存在.然后详细地分析了系统随参数变化的分岔图,发现了系统中存在更复杂的现象.最后应用混沌跟踪控制方法控制系统的混沌现象,使得种群稳定到正不动点轨道上,消除了种群中存在的混沌现象.仿真结果验证了控制方法的有效性.     

具有三个年龄阶段的单种群自食模型

建立并研究了两个具有三个年龄阶段的单种群自食模型．这篇文章的主要目的是研究时滞对种群生长的作用,对于没有时滞的的模型,我们利用Liapunov函数,得到了系统平衡点全局渐近稳定的充分条件;而具有时滞的的模型,我们得到,随着时滞T增加,当系数满足一定条件时,正平衡点的稳定性可以改变有限次,最后变成不稳定;否则,时滞模型的正平衡点的稳定性不改变。     

An Ecosystem Model for Exploring Lake Restoration Effects on Fish Communities and Fisheries in Florida

Developing quantitative ecosystem–scale expectations of habitat restoration projects and examining trade‐offs associated with alternative approaches has been a challenge for restoration ecology. Many of the largest freshwater lake restoration projects have occurred in Florida to remediate degradation to vegetated littoral habitats resulting from stabilized water levels, but effects across lake food‐webs have not been assessed. We developed an ecosystem model using Ecopath with Ecosim and Ecospace for a generalized large, eutrophic Florida Lake to explore how simulated restoration activities could influence fish communities with emphasis on sport fish abundance. We modeled three habitat restoration scenarios: (1) “no control,” (2) a “10‐year control” that restored littoral habitat every 10 years, and (3) a “combined control” scenario that restored littoral habitat every 10 years with maintenance controls between 10‐year periods. Our “combined control” scenario provided the largest long‐term habitat restoration benefits for sport fish abundance and the fisheries they support. In Ecospace, we simulated a littoral habitat restoration project that reduced lake‐wide tussock coverage from 30 to 15%. Ecospace predicted positive benefits to sport fish and fisheries following the restoration simulation and highlighted the importance of habitat edge effects, spatial design of habitat restoration projects, and sampling designs for evaluating restoration projects.