A Bayesian model averaging approach for estimating the relative risk of mortality associated with heat waves in 105 U.S. cities

Estimating the risks heat waves pose to human health is a critical part of assessing the future impact of climate change. In this article, we propose a flexible class of time series models to estimate the relative risk of mortality associated with heat waves and conduct Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to account for the multiplicity of potential models. Applying these methods to data from 105 U.S. cities for the period 1987-2005, we identify those cities having a high posterior probability of increased mortality risk during heat waves, examine the heterogeneity of the posterior distributions of mortality risk across cities, assess sensitivity of the results to the selection of prior distributions, and compare our BMA results to a model selection approach. Our results show that no single model best predicts risk across the majority of cities, and that for some cities heat-wave risk estimation is sensitive to model choice. Although model averaging leads to posterior distributions with increased variance as compared to statistical inference conditional on a model obtained through model selection, we find that the posterior mean of heat wave mortality risk is robust to accounting for model uncertainty over a broad class of models.     

Restoration of the mycobiome of the endangered Hawaiian mint Phyllostegia kaalaensis increases its resistance to a common powdery mildew

Beneficial microbes such as plant mutualistic fungi, hold the promise of ameliorating challenges faced in native plant conservation such as disease management. As an alternative to costly chemical pest control, conservation efforts could potentially harness the benefits of plant mutualistic fungi to aid in defense and disease resistance, but there are few tests of this notion. We set out to test the efficacy of controlling a common foliar pathogen, the powdery mildew Neoerysiphe galeopsidis, by inoculating the endangered Hawaiian plant species Phyllostegia kaalaensis with potentially beneficial members of its wild-type mycobiome. We tested whether inoculating plants with above or belowground fungal mutualists, or both, led to increased disease resistance in the host. We found that while all treatments reduced average disease incidence, colonization by the foliar yeast Moesziomyces aphidis was the only treatment to do so significantly. These results provide an exciting new strategy for plant conservation practices.     

Fractal dimension of birds population sizes time series

Information about fractal dimension is collected so that it can be applied to time series interpreting Hurst coefficient. The population size of a species is modelled as a dynamic system. The Hurst coefficient is calculated for these times series. A computer programme has been elaborated to compute the Hurst exponent of time series using the algorithms of range increment, second order moment increment and local second order moment increment. It has been applied to time series of birds' populations.     

Chemical constituents of the Korean endangered species Rhododendron brachycarpum

1. Download : Download full-size image

     

Genetic assessment of population restorations of the critically endangered Silene hifacensis in the Iberian Peninsula

In order to preserve endangered plant populations and recover their evolutionary potential and ecological behavior, some restoration measures generally involve the reinforcement of the population size in existing natural populations or the reintroduction of new populations. Genetic monitoring of both natural and restored populations can provide an assessment of restoration protocol success in establishing populations that maintain levels of genetic diversity similar to those in natural populations. The highly threatened Spanish species Silene hifacensis (Caryophyllaceae) has only three natural reduced mainland populations in the Iberian Peninsula, following decline and extinction that occurred during the late 20th century. Preterit restoration strategies were essentially based on the implantation of new populations and reinforcement of certain existing populations using transplants mostly cultivated in greenhouses. In the present contribution, levels and patterns of genetic variability within natural and restored populations of Silene hifacensis were assessed using the molecular technique AFLP. Our results pointed out significant genetic diversity differences across the three existing natural populations though their population fragmentation and progressive loss of individuals have not had an impact on the global genetic diversity of this species. For restored populations, their levels of genetic diversity were similar and even higher than in natural populations. As a result, the past restoration protocols were successful in capturing similar and even higher levels of genetic diversity than those observed within natural pools. However, inbreeding processes have been detected for two restored populations. Finally, the main source of plant material for the long-time restored transplants appears to be the natural population of Cova de les Cendres. This study demonstrates, once again, how genetic markers are useful tools to be taken in consideration for endangered plant species conservation plans.     

Bounded random walks as a null model for evaluating population trends

Management of wildlife and protection of endangered species depend on determination of population trends. Because population changes are stochastic and autoregressive, there is reason to believe that population trends might not be properly determined by simple regression over short time periods. A bounded random walk (BRW) model is introduced as a null model for evaluating population trends. The BRW model shows long-term stability but rising and falling sequences of up to many decades. For a given variability and survey length, there will be an expected probability of finding a greater than X% slope simply by chance. This false positive probability needs to be considered when evaluating trends. Breeding Bird Survey data for 128 species over 46 years for two states were analyzed for trends for different series lengths. Trends estimated from short series were likely to not agree with the 46-year trends. Very short series (e.g., 5 years) tended to indicate no trend due to loss of statistical power. A 101-year series for sandwich term (Sterna sandvicensis) revealed that even for 40 year-long series, 33% of subset series had a negative trend compared to the strong 101 year full series positive trend. The BRW model simulations and both data sets pointed to 20 years as a minimum time period for estimating trends reliably, though this can be longer for species that tend to cycle. Proper inference should thus consider the implications of inherent time series variability.     

Management implications for the reintroduction of the endangered Hawaiian state flower Hibiscus brackenridgei

Dry forests of Hawai'i are one of the most endangered forest types worldwide with 45% of all native tree and shrub species listed as federally threatened or endangered. Supplementation and reintroduction of endangered dry forest species are necessary to maintain viable population sizes. The goal of this research was to reintroduce Hibiscus brackenridgei mokuleianus, the state flower of Hawai'i and a federally endangered species, into its historical range on O'ahu. We determined the environmental variables contributing to plant survival and growth, assessed the effectiveness of a reintroduction program with minimal management, and evaluated the potential for habitat suitability models to assist in selection of optimal sites for reintroduction. Forty‐five individuals were grown from cuttings and transplanted in two regions: Ka'ena Point (2 sites, 10 individuals each site) and along Kealia Trail (5 sites, 5 individuals each site). Survival and height measurements were taken four times over the course of 25 months. There was 35% survival at Ka'ena Point and 76% survival at Kealia Trail and an average plant growth of 70.5 cm (±30.1 cm) and 121.6 cm (±61.7 cm), respectively. Ka'ena Point had significantly lower survival (p > 0.001) and growth rates (p > 0.001) than Kealia Trail. Plants survived best at sites with steep slopes and high soil moisture and grew the most in sites with steeper slopes, higher soil moisture, and lower soil bulk density. These findings provide insight into environmental variables which should be considered prior to planting as well as the intensity of site management.     

Genetic differentiation in a captive population of the endangered Siberian crane (Grus leucogeranus Pall.)

DNA fingerprinting, followed by multivariate analysis of data, was used to characterize genetic heterogeneity in captive populations of the endangered Siberian and sandhill cranes. The genetic structure revealed reflected the natural population and species distributions. The relevant groups differed not only from each other, but also from interspecies and inter-population hybrids bred in captivity. In this study we have tested an approach to the analysis of population structure based on individual genotypes. Interpretation of fingerprinting data by means of the analytical system applied here is a useful and reliable procedure for the estimation of genetic relationships between individuals.     

Genetic diversity of two endemic and endangered Plantago species

Plantago algarbiensis and Plantago almogravensis are two endangered and endemic species from Portugal. Due to the rarity and endangered nature of these species as well as the lack of molecular data, their genetic variation was evaluated using ISSR and RAPD markers. P. algarbiensis species showed higher genetic variability (73.9% of polymorphism) than P. almogravensis (61.2%). The two species revealed a high level of genetic diversity, with a Nei's genetic diversity of 0.1965 and 0.2309 and a Shannon's diversity index of 0.2975 and 0.3520, for P. almogravensis and P. algarbiensis, respectively. A low level of genetic differentiation was observed (Gst = 0.1873) among the species. However, the cluster and PCA analyses, based on genetic similarity, revealed two main, clearly separate clusters, which directly corresponded to the plants isolated from each species. In situ and ex situ measures should be applied in order to preserve both species but, based on these results, P. almogravensis population should be a priority for conservation.     

How do dams affect freshwater fish distributions in Japan? Statistical analysis of native and nonnative species with various life histories

We examined the effects of dams on freshwater fish species based on data collected during 1990–2004 from 200 drainage systems in Japan. Of the 76 fish species examined, the occurrence of 20 species within Petromyzontidae, Cyprinidae, Cobitididae, Salmonidae, Cottidae, and Gobiidae was negatively affected by the presence of dams located in the downstream reaches of fish survey sites, whereas the occurrence of 12 species within Cyprinidae, Adrianichthyidae, Centrarchidae, and Gobiidae was positively associated with the presence of dams. A significantly higher proportion of the fishes with a negative damming effect were diadromous species as compared to the fishes with a positive damming effect. Conversely, the latter group had a significantly higher proportion of nonnative species than the former. A significant interaction existed between the effects of damming and the effects of elevation on family-specific species richness. Families dominated by native migratory species showed a greater reduction in the number of species above dams at lower elevations, whereas families represented primarily by nonnative species had higher species richness above dams at higher elevations, except for Centrarchidae, which was always higher in species richness above dams regardless of elevation. Based on our findings, dams in Japan have adversely affected native freshwater fishes by blocking their migration routes, favoring nonnative fishes, or altering existing habitats.     

The importance and potential of artificial insemination in CANDES (companion animals, non-domestic, endangered species)

Artificial insemination (AI) is the least invasive assisted reproductive technology, and is therefore of great interest to breeders of companion animals, non-domestic, and endangered species (CANDES). This most fundamental artificial breeding technique circumvents physical or behavioral impediments to natural mating and provides the means for genetic exchange between populations without transfer of live animals. In addition, because oocytes grow, mature and are fertilized in vivo and embryos are not subjected to in vitro culture conditions, AI eliminates the epigenetic effects on the female gamete that are inherent in more invasive assisted reproductive technologies. Although the management of CANDES differs significantly from current livestock husbandry practices, the cattle industry is a powerful example of the potential for AI to enhance the genetic health and sustainability of animal populations. Ultimately, successful AI requires sperm of adequate quality and quantity, oocytes that have attained nuclear maturation and cytoplasmic competence, operational gamete transport systems, accurate timing, and proper placement of sperm in the female reproductive tract. Increased understanding of semen collection, evaluation and preservation techniques, estrus synchronization and superovulation, estrus and ovulation detection, and insemination instrumentation is needed for each CANDES before AI success rates will approach those of the livestock industry. Concentrated, collaborative research in these areas must be encouraged among private breeders, universities and zoological institutions to realize the full potential of AI in the management of CANDES.     

Characterization of male reproductive anatomy of the endangered Arabian oryx (Oryx leucoryx)

Reproductive tracts of four male Arabian oryx (Oryx leucoryx) from Shaumari Nature Reserve in Jordan were examined to characterize their reproductive anatomy. Animals were allocated into two groups based on their age: Group 1 (n = 2, males were 12 and 14 mo old) and Group 2 (n = 2, males were 7 and 9 yrs old). Observations regarding the morphology, position and orientation of different reproductive organs were made. The external and internal genital organs of male oryx were similar to other domestic ruminant species with minor differences.     

Conservation genetics of the endangered endemic Hawaiian genus Brighamia (Campanulaceae)

The endemic Hawaiian genus Brighamia (Campanulaceae) comprises two federally endangered, morphologically similar species, B. insignis from Kaua`i and Ni`ihau and B. rockii from Moloka`i. To assist the design of conservation management programs for these taxa, isozyme analyses were performed to assess the levels of genetic diversity at the population and species levels, including comparisons within and among seven natural populations and one ex situ collection each of B. insignis and B. rockii. Our sampling (N = 80) represents ~41% of all known individuals in the wild. Isozyme analyses revealed levels of genetic variation comparable to those reported for other Hawaiian flowering plant taxa but low levels of genetic variation at the population and species levels when compared to flowering plants in general. Ex situ individuals (N = 61) were genetically representative of natural populations and hence may appropriately serve as stock for population augmentations. The two morphologically similar Brighamia species were highly distinct genetically. The combination of morphological and ecological similarity with allozymic dissimilarity observed in Brighamia is unique among the Hawaiian taxa studied to date.     

Modeling baseline conditions of ecological indicators: Marine renewable energy environmental monitoring

Ecological indicators are often collected to detect and monitor environmental change. Statistical models are used to estimate natural variability, pre-existing trends, and environmental predictors of baseline indicator conditions. Establishing standard models for baseline characterization is critical to the effective design and implementation of environmental monitoring programs. An anthropogenic activity that requires monitoring is the development of Marine Renewable Energy sites. Currently, there are no standards for the analysis of environmental monitoring data for these development sites. Marine Renewable Energy monitoring data are used as a case study to develop and apply a model evaluation to establish best practices for characterizing baseline ecological indicator data. We examined a range of models, including six generalized regression models, four time series models, and three nonparametric models. Because monitoring data are not always normally distributed, we evaluated model ability to characterize normal and non-normal data using hydroacoustic metrics that serve as proxies for ecological indicator data. The nonparametric support vector regression and random forest models, and parametric state-space time series models generally were the most accurate in interpolating the normal metric data. Support vector regression and state-space models best interpolated the non-normally distributed data. If parametric results are preferred, then state-space models are the most robust for baseline characterization. Evaluation of a wide range of models provides a comprehensive characterization of the case study data, and highlights advantages of models rarely used in Marine Renewable Energy environmental monitoring. Our model findings are relevant for any ecological indicator data with similar properties, and the evaluation approach is applicable to any monitoring program.     

Molecular evidence on the species status and phylogenetic relationships of Spiranthes parksii, an endangered orchid from Texas

New genetic information on the taxonomic status of an endangered species may have strong implications for its continued protection and that of other listed taxa with questionable species status. While analyzing a more comprehensive project on the molecular phylogeny of North American Spiranthes (Orchidaceae), lack of genetic differentiation between endangered S. parksii, endemic only to Texas, and a common local congener, S. cernua, was discovered. To confirm these results in a comparative context, we focused parsimony analyses on a subset of data from local Spiranthes and the same congeners found elsewhere, expanded by additional local samples of the two focal species. Four DNA sequence segments (two chloroplast, one mitochondrial, one nuclear ribosomal) totaling 3191 base pairs were used separately and together to verify that S. parksii is nested within the same clade as S. cernua, and thus likely to be the same species. Our results concur with another recent investigation using AFLP and microsatellite data that also suggests S. parksii is not unique genetically. Therefore, based on empirical data and the phylogenetic species concept, endangered S. parksii is merely an aberrant local phenotype of and a synonym for S. cernua sensu lato. Our results should be considered during the current review of this orchid’s listing status, despite some recent policy changes on consideration of genetic data after listing.     

Roles of succession,light, nutrients and disturbance on population vigor and maintenance of the rare plant Solidago shortii (Asteraceae)

Results of field and glasshouse experiments on Solidago shortii, and our observations on this species over many years, were used to construct a conceptual model of the roles of succession, light, soil nutrients and disturbance on population vigor and maintenance of this federal-endangered species. As cover of woody vegetation increased at a population site between 1986 and 1992, number of flowering ramets of S. shortii significantly decreased but number of vegetative ramets remained nearly constant. Adult plants transplanted into a redcedar thicket and those shaded in a glasshouse produced many fewer flowering ramets and capitula per flowering ramet and less biomass and had higher mortality than those in the open. Seedlings/juveniles shaded in a glasshouse had significantly less dry biomass; lower RGR, NAR, leaf area and root/shoot ratio and higher LAR, SLA and LWR than nonshaded ones. In a field site and glasshouse, fertilized plants (NPK) consistently had more flowering ramets and capitula per flowering ramet than nonfertilized ones. Hierarchy of dry weight of plants grown in a glasshouse in soils derived from five types of bedrock was phosphatic limestone > calcareous shale > sandstone > black shale = dolomite. Flowering and biomass production in the field-fertilizer and soil-type experiments were associated closely with levels of P. Number of flowering ramets significantly increased in plants transferred from shaded to nonshaded glasshouse conditions, but no such increase occurred after opening the canopy above plants in a thicket. Both high light and high nutrient levels apparently are necessary to maintain high vigor of S. shortii. In areas subject to invasion by woody plants, periodic high intensity disturbance may be required to prevent population extirpation.     

Implementing artificial insemination as an effective tool for ex situ conservation of endangered avian species

Approximately 503 of the known species of birds are classified as ‘endangered’ or ‘critical’. Captive propagation programs have proven useful in maintaining genetic diversity and restoring wild populations of certain species, including the Peregrine falcon, California condor and Whooping crane. Artificial insemination (AI) has the potential of solving problems inherent to reproductive management of small, closed populations of endangered birds, including dealing with demographic instability, physical and behavioral disabilities, sexual incompatibility, lack of synchrony, and need to maintain gene diversity. In this review, we address the necessary methods and factors that allow AI to be applied effectively to manage rare bird populations. It is clear that semen availability and quality are the greatest limiting factors to implementing consistently successful AI for birds. Behavioral sensitivity to animal handling and the ability to minimize stress in individual birds also are keys to success. Multiple, deep vaginal inseminations can improve fertility, particularly when semen quality is marginal. Laparoscopic methods of semen transfer also have produced fertile eggs. All of these practices leading to successful AI remain dependent on having adequate basic knowledge on female reproductive status, copulatory behavior, endocrine profiles and duration of fertility, especially as related to oviposition. The overall greatest challenge and highest priority is defining these normative traits, which are highly species-specific.