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1.
The spatial distribution of human activities in forest frontier regions is strongly influenced by transportation infrastructure. With the planned paving of 6000 km of highway in the Amazon Basin, agricultural frontier expansion will follow, triggering potentially large changes in the location and rate of deforestation. We developed a land‐cover change simulation model that is responsive to road paving and policy intervention scenarios for the BR‐163 highway in central Amazonia. This corridor links the cities of Cuiabá, in central Brazil, and Santarém, on the southern margin of the Amazon River. It connects important soybean production regions and burgeoning population centers in Mato Grosso State with the international port of Santarém, but 1000 km of this road are still not paved. It is within this context that the Brazilian government has prioritized the paving of this road to turn it into a major soybean exportation facility. The model assesses the impacts of this road paving within four scenarios: two population scenarios (high and moderate growth) and two policy intervention scenarios. In the ‘business‐as‐usual’ policy scenario, the responses of deforestation and land abandonment to road paving are estimated based on historical rates of Amazon regions that had a major road paved. In the ‘governance’ scenario, several plausible improvements in the enforcement of environmental regulations, support for sustainable land‐use systems, and local institutional capacity are invoked to modify the historical rates. Model inputs include data collected during expeditions and through participatory mapping exercises conducted with agents from four major frontier types along the road. The model has two components. A scenario‐generating submodel is coupled to a landscape dynamics simulator, ‘DINAMICA’, which spatially allocates the land‐cover transitions using a GIS database. The model was run for 30 years, divided into annual time steps. It predicted more than twice as much deforestation along the corridor in business‐as‐usual vs. governance scenarios. The model demonstrates how field data gathered along a 1000 km corridor can be used to develop plausible scenarios of future land‐cover change trajectories that are relevant to both global change science and the decision‐making process of governments and civil society in an important rainforest region.  相似文献   

2.
Walker & Syers (1976) proposed a conceptual model that describesthe pattern and regulation of soil nutrient pools and availability during long-term soil and ecosystem development. Their model implies that plantproduction generally should be limited by N on young soils and by P on oldsoils; N and P supply should more or less equilibrate onintermediate-aged soils. We tested the application of this model to nutrientlimitation, using a well characterized substrate age sequence in Hawaiianmontane rain forest. Earlier experiments had evaluated nutrient limitationin forests on a young (300 y) and an old (4,100,000 y) substrate on the samedevelopmental sequence; N alone limited tree growth on the youngsubstrate, while P alone did so on the old one. An additional fertilizerexperiment based on replicated treatments with N, P, and all othernutrients combined, applied in individually and in all factorialcombinations, was established in an intermediate-aged site in theLaupahoehoe Forest Reserve, Hawaii. Here, diameter increments of thedominant tree Metrosideros polymorpha increased slightly with Nadditions, and nearly doubled when N and P were added together.Additions of elements other than N and P had no significant effecton growth. These results show that N and P had equilibrated (relativeto plant requirements) in the intermediate aged site. Together withthe earlier experiments, these results suggest that the Walker and Syersmodel provides a useful starting point for explaining the nature anddistribution of nutrient limitation in forest ecosystems.  相似文献   

3.
In the subtropical Atlantic rain forest of southern Brazil, reproduction of the catfish Pimelodella pappenheimi was studied over a two years period in a small coastal stream representing a widely undisturbed aquatic habitat. According to analyses of the gonad status, reproduction is mainly seasonal with a peak in the rainy summer months, consisting of multiple spawning. The average body length of the fishes attaining sexual maturity was the same in both sexes. At the study site summer storms cause flash floods, and heavy rainfalls can suddenly increase the river flow. Reproductive females were found to burrow in the clay palisades of the river sediments which is regarded a behavioural adaptation protecting the offspring from being washed away.  相似文献   

4.
Changes in soil carbon storage that accompany land‐cover change may have significant effects on the global carbon cycle. The objective of this work was to examine how assumptions about preconversion soil C storage and the effects of land‐cover change influence estimates of regional soil C storage. We applied three models of land‐cover change effects to two maps of preconversion soil C in a 140 000 ha area of northeastern Costa Rica. One preconversion soil C map was generated using values assigned to tropical wet forest from the literature, the second used values obtained from extensive field sampling. The first model of land‐cover change effects used values that are typically applied in global assessments, the second and third models used field data but differed in how the data were aggregated (one was based on land‐cover transitions and one was based on terrain attributes). Changes in regional soil C storage were estimated for each combination of model and preconversion soil C for three time periods defined by geo‐referenced land‐cover maps. The estimated regional soil C under forest vegetation (to 0.3 m) was higher in the map based on field data (10.03 Tg C) than in the map based on literature data (8.90 Tg C), although the range of values derived from propagating estimation errors was large (7.67–12.40 Tg C). Regional soil C storage declined through time due to forest clearing for pasture and crops. Estimated CO2 fluxes depended more on the model of land‐cover change effects than on preconversion soil C. Cumulative soil C losses (1950–1996) under the literature model of land‐cover effects exceeded estimates based on field data by factors of 3.8–8.0. In order to better constrain regional and global‐scale assessments of carbon fluxes from soils in the tropics, future research should focus on methods for extrapolating regional‐scale constraints on soil C dynamics to larger spatial and temporal scales.  相似文献   

5.
We experiment with artificial data to test the response of five numerical techniques in extrapolating paleo-environments for no-analog conditions. No-analog conditions are those beyond the technique calibration (modern) data set and will be encountered in applications to the geologic past, though they may not be easy to recognize. In the ideal, a numerical technique will correctly extrapolate to no-analog conditions. Failing this, the technique will have a consistent, predictable error response to increasing no-analog conditions, as these are measured by a reliable index. The no-analog conditions that we used are a natural extension of the calibration conditions we created. Thus we test techniques for their response to shifting environmental conditions rather than for factors unrelated to the ecology of the taxa (e.g. post-depositional fossil preservation). Five numerical techniques we test with our hypothetical data are (1) multivariate regression of species percents, (2) correlation-based principal components with linear regression, (3) covariance-based principal components with linear regression, (4) correlation-based principal components with non-linear regression, and (5) the Imbrie and Kipp technique. All the techniques show increasing estimation error as conditions depart from those of the calibration data set. There are two main causes of error in our estimates: (1) the distorting effects of matrix closure on taxon abundances; and (2) generation of ratio no-analogs among species abundances because of non-linear responses to conditions departing progressively from the calibration range. With all the techniques, the distribution of error for no-analog conditions is complex. Non-linear regression with factors shows the least predictable error response. We found that currently developed no-analog indicators do not have a good correlation to estimation error. This means that better indicators, more closely linked to the accuracy of estimates, need to be developed.  相似文献   

6.
The southwestern portion of the Brazilian Amazon arguably represents the largest agricultural frontier in the world, and within this region the states of Rondônia and Mato Grosso have about 24% and 32% of their respective areas under agricultural management, which is almost half of the total area deforested in the Brazilian Amazon biome. Consequently, it is assumed that deforestation in this region has caused substantial loss of soil organic carbon (SOC). In this study, the changes in SOC stocks due to the land use change and management in the southwestern Amazon were estimated for two time periods from 1970–1985 and 1985–2002. An uncertainty analysis was also conducted using a Monte Carlo approach. The results showed that mineral soils converted to agricultural management lost a total of 5.37 and 3.74 Tg C yr?1 between 1970–1985 and 1985–2002, respectively, along the Brazilian Agricultural Frontier in the states of Mato Grosso and Rondônia. Uncertainties in these estimates were ±37.3% and ±38.6% during the first and second time periods, respectively. The largest sources of uncertainty were associated with reference carbon (C) stocks, expert knowledge surveys about grassland condition, and the management factors for nominal and degraded grasslands. These results showed that land use change and management created a net loss of C from soils, however, the change in SOC stocks decreased substantially from the first to the second time period due to the increase in land under no‐tillage.  相似文献   

7.
生物信息学数据库调查分析及其利用研究   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5  
从生物信息学数据库利用的角度调查分析生物信息学数据库的现状,为我国科研人员利用网上生物信息学数据库以及生物信息中心的开发提供科学依据和参考价值。研究采用网上调查的方法,对法国生物信息中心Infobiogen建立维护的生物信息学数据库目录DBcat中收录的511个数据库进行调查统计,分析其类型分布、国家分布、更新频率和获取方式;在此基础上。进一步利用欧洲分子生物学信息网(EMBnet)中30个成员国节点对生物信息学数据库利用现状进行统计分析。  相似文献   

8.
The allelic frequencies of 12 short tandem repeat loci were obtained from a sample of 307 unrelated individuals living in Macapá, a city in the northern Amazon region, Brazil. These loci are the most commonly used in forensics and paternity testing. Based on the allele frequency obtained for the population of Macapá, we estimated an interethnic admixture for the three parental groups (European, Native American and African) of, respectively, 46%, 35% and 19%. Comparing these allele frequencies with those of other Brazilian populations and of the Iberian Peninsula population, no significant distances were observed. The interpopulation genetic distances (F(ST) coefficients) to the present database ranged from F(ST) = 0.0016 between Macapá and Belém to F(ST) = 0.0036 between Macapá and the Iberian Peninsula.  相似文献   

9.
10.
Models are central to global change analyses, but they are often parameterized using data that represent only a portion of heterogeneity in a region. This creates uncertainty in the results and constrains the reliability of model inferences. Our objective was to evaluate the uncertainty associated with differential scaling of parameterization data to model soil organic carbon stock changes as a function of US agricultural land use and management. Specifically, we compared analyses in which model parameters were derived from field experimental data that were scaled to the entire US vs. the same data scaled to climate regions within the country. We evaluated the effect of differential scaling on both bias and variance in model results. Model results had less variance by scaling data to the entire country because of a larger sample size for deriving individual parameter values, although there was a relatively large bias associated with this parameterization, estimated at 2.7 Tg C yr?1. Even with the large bias, resulting confidence intervals from the two parameterizations had considerable overlap for the estimated national rate of SOC change (i.e. 77% overlap in those intervals). Consequently, the results were relatively similar when focusing on the uncertainty rather than solely on the mean estimate. In contrast, large biases created less overlap in confidence intervals for the change rates within individual climate regions, compared with the national estimates. For example, the overlap in resulting intervals from the two parameterizations was only 32% for the warm temperate moist region, with a corresponding bias of 3.1 Tg C yr?1. These findings demonstrate that there is a greater risk of making erroneous inferences because of large biases if models are parameterized with broader scale information, such as an entire country, and then used to address impacts at a finer spatial scale, such as sub‐regions within a country. In addition, the study demonstrates a trade‐off between variance and bias in model results that depends on the scaling of data for model parameterization.  相似文献   

11.
We used the Hedley sequential extraction procedure to measure nine different organic inorganic soil phosphorus fractions in forest soil of the Bragantina region of Para, Brazil. We compared the labile fractions (resin‐extractable P + HCO3‐extractable inorganic and organic P) in Oxisols from three secondary forests (10, 20, and 40 years old) and a primary forest. These stands were located in an area that has supported shifting agriculture for approximately a century. After agricultural use, total P and labile P in soils of young secondary forests are diminished compared to the amounts presents in the primary forest soil. Within each stand, organic carbon content was a good predictor of labile organic and inorganic P, consistent with the large body of research indicating that mineralization of organic matter is important to plant nutrition in tropical ecosystems. During the reorganization of P pools during forest development, the pool of labile organic P (HCO3‐extractable) diminishes more than the other labile fractions, suggesting that it is directly or indirectly an important source of P for the regrowing forest vegetation. Across the four age classes of forest, the soil reservoir of labile P was equal to or greater than the total amount of P in the vegetation. If labile P measured by this method adequately represents P available to plants in the short term (as suggested by the current consensus), we would conclude that plant‐available P is reasonable abundant, and that the effects of agriculture on available P pools are detectable but not sufficient to compromise forest regrowth in this area.  相似文献   

12.
Background and Aims  Recently, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) has been recognized as an effective tool for evaluating the environmental impacts of regional activities. The main issue, when applying LCA to region-based studies, is how best to consider and reflect the regional characteristics, as they need to be as close to reality as possible. Several Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) analysis and Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) studies have been undertaken to study site-specific considerations. However, due to practicalities, very few attempts have been made at identifying the regions affected by regional activities and consider their regional characteristics. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to suggest the direction of a forthcoming study by showing the necessity of regional characteristic consideration in regional evaluation, and to suggest a synthetic, region-based LCA method which can reflect the differences of regional characteristics for direct and indirect effects of regional activities. Methods  In this study, the Life Cycle Region-specific Assessment Method (LCRAM) was proposed as a new site-specific LCA method. As an example, we used LCRAM to observe the effects of 4 environmental burdens (CO2, NOx, SOx, and SPM) to human health (DALY) in 47 regions (prefectures in Japan). LCRAM consists of a regional database and an analysis method (EIOM). In order to reflect the regional characteristics, including structural (regional production and consumption, interregional trade, and the structure of energy consumption) and environmental features (geographical location, climate, natural conditions, and population density), we first constructed a regional database. This includes an Interregional Trade Matrix (ITM), Regional Environmental Burden Coefficients (REBC), and Regional Damage Factors (RDF). Second, for considering the regional characteristics by using the regional database to the each region, it is a necessary to identify the environmental burden emitting regions (Emitting Regions) of indirect effects due to regional activity. To do this, we developed the Expanded Interregional Input Output Method (EIOM) to take the place of the Multi-Regional Input Output method (Multi-Regional IO) by applying the Two-Regional IO method and the ITM. This is because it is difficult to apply Multi-Regional IO to many regions and industries owing to practical constraints. Results and Discussion  Upon comparison between the regional database, it was found to show considerable differences due to regional characteristics. It is possible to identify how much the difference of REBC influences the evaluation results by calculating the Deviation Effect Index with REBC and, thus, it was found that the effects from the iron and steel, and electric power industries were more than three times that of other industries. Also the size of RDF varies according to the property of the Environmental Burden (EB) and region; and the more site-specific EB, such as SPM in this study shows, the more distinct the difference. Therefore, it seems reasonable to recommend that the proper regional database is applied to the Emitting Regions. Meanwhile, a comparison with a 9-region IO table (a Multi-Regional IO table made by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry in Japan) was performed to verify the reliability of EIOM. The results indicated a high consistency of over 95%, which verifies that EIOM can be used instead of a Multi-Regional IO method. Finally, as a comparison between LCRAM and Region-Generic Method (RGM) for nine activity regions, we confirmed that the results produced by RGM may be an underestimation or overestimation; as an example, the largest difference among the regions for DALY reached 48% of the RGM result. Conclusions and Outlook  In this study, it was clearly shown that the evaluation results will be different depending on the structure and environmental features of each region. It is necessary to reflect the proper regional characteristics to evaluate the actual regional activity. LCRAM is an efficient method to consider the regional characteristics for direct and indirect effects to regions, through all stages of the activities. Also, it is possible to apply a regional evaluation for more regions and more detail in the industry classification. Furthermore, it discusses the interdependence and transportation effects due to interaction between the regions. Thus, it may enable us to make an appropriate decision in region-based evaluations such as nourishment and inducement of industry, infrastructure, recycle system, etc. Finally, it is also expected that further discussion and continuous examination will contribute to enabling us to frame an actual and efficient policy based on the regional structural features and environmental features for a sustainable community.  相似文献   

13.
中国东北地区北方森林土壤钙对植被结构和土壤功能随火烧序列恢复趋势分化的驱动作用随着火后恢复时间的延长,各生物物理因子对森林群落结构恢复和重建的重要性也发生着变化。本研究的主要目的是明确我国北方森林在火灾干扰后地上植被和土壤微生物功能的关键恢复时期及其主导性驱动因子。在东北大兴安岭林区,选择不同时期的火烧林地,组成一个50年的火烧演替序列,分析随火烧后恢复时间的增加,乔木、灌木和草本物种的生物量在整个群落中所占比重的动态变化特征。同时,采集不同火烧林地的土壤样品,分析其养分含量、微生物生物量以及酶活性等理化指标,并以这些理化数据为基础,估算土壤微生物的生长效率和碳素利用效率,以反应土壤微生物功能随火烧时间的演变规律。研究结果发现,在选定的火烧序列内,不同功能群物种在森林群落的恢复和重建中的贡献表现出明显的时期变异性。草本物种的比重从最初的75%下降到1.5%,而乔木物种的比重则从火烧 初期的0.04%上升到后期的70%。土壤微生物的生长效率和碳素利用效率平均为0.242和0.236,在火烧恢复的第9、15和31年的取值明显大于火烧后的第2和3 年。火烧后恢复时期也影响了土壤中金属离子的含量,土壤中钙和铁的含量都在火烧序列后期得到明显提高,其中钙的含量与群落中木本物种间呈正相关关系,而与微生物功能间呈负相关关系。在本研究选定的火烧序列内,火烧干扰后的第15和31年是地上群落结构和土壤微生物功能恢复的关键期,地上和地下恢复过程在这两个时期呈现出分异趋势,而土壤中钙含量的变化对这一分异趋势发挥了一定的驱动作用。  相似文献   

14.
In 2005, southwestern Amazonia experienced the effects of an intense drought that affected life and biodiversity. Several major tributaries as well as parts of the main river itself contained only a fraction of their normal volumes of water, and lakes were drying up. The consequences for local people, animals and the forest itself are impossible to estimate now, but they are likely to be serious. The analyses indicate that the drought was manifested as weak peak river season during autumn to winter as a consequence of a weak summertime season in southwestern Amazonia; the winter season was also accompanied by rainfall that sometimes reached 25% of the climatic value, being anomalously warm and dry and helping in the propagation of fires. Analyses of climatic and hydrological records in Amazonia suggest a broad consensus that the 2005 drought was linked not to El Niño as with most previous droughts in the Amazon, but to warming sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean.  相似文献   

15.
帽儿山不同年龄森林土壤呼吸速率的影响因子   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
王家骏  王传宽  韩轶 《生态学报》2018,38(4):1194-1202
为探明东北温带森林恢复过程中土壤呼吸(R_S)的变化趋势及其影响因子,在帽儿山选取皆伐后天然更新恢复的4个年龄(1a、10a、25a和56a)林分进行了1年的野外原位测定。结果表明:(1)皆伐后天然更新恢复1年、10年、25年和56年林分的年R_S通量差异显著(P0.05),分别为686.5、639.7、733.3、762.3g C m~(-2)a~(-1);其中生长季(5月─10月)和非生长季的R_S通量也存在显著差异,均呈现出随林龄增加先减后增的趋势。全年、生长季和非生长季R_S随林龄变化的变异系数分别为7.6%、6.3%和21.1%,表明非生长季R_S通量的变异性加大了全年R_S通量的差异。(2)4个年龄林分的Rs季节变化趋势相似,且其主控因子均随季节而变:6月─8月Rs与土壤含水率呈二次函数关系(R~2波动在56%─79%之间),其余时段则与土壤温度呈指数函数关系(R~2波动在85%─93%之间)。(3)不同年龄林分生长季R_S与0─20cm土层有机碳(SOC)密度呈正相关关系(R~2=0.434,P0.05),而非生长季R_S与同期土壤5cm温度呈正相关关系(R~2=0.959,P0.01)。本研究区森林皆伐导致R_S降低,随皆伐后森林恢复R_S不断增加,其主导驱动因子是SOC密度的增加和非生长季土壤温度的变化。  相似文献   

16.
We evaluated changes in temperature and precipitation associated with climate change, subsidence, and erosion on a chronosequence of sites across Hawaii. The sites range in age from 0.3 to 4100 ky, and the current temperature and precipitation are similar at all sites. Interpretations of fossil pollen records suggest that cooler, dryer conditions prevailed in windward Hawaii during the last glacial period. If the previous glacial periods were similar, the 20-, 150-, and 1400-ky-old sites would have spent 60% or more of their development under relatively cool and dry conditions, whereas the 0.3- and 2.1-ky-old sites have experienced only the warmer, wetter climate of the present interglacial. Subsidence and erosion have also affected the temperature and precipitation of these sites over time; in the past, some of them have been in the dry air above the trade wind inversion or in the lee of larger mountains. Combining these components of change, we estimate that the average temperature over the history of Pleistocene-aged sites (20, 150, and 1400 ky) was up to 2.2°C cooler and that the average precipitation was only about 50% of current values. Under current conditions, it would take only 230 ky for as much water to leach through the 1400-ky-old site as we calculate has leached over 1400 ky. Incorporating more reasonable assumptions about environmental history has the potential to allow more powerful interpretations of chronosequence data and thereby improve the predictive potential of models of soil and ecosystem development. Received 21 December 1999; accepted 1 June 2000.  相似文献   

17.
Between 2003 and 2005, vertebrae of 151 Xingu River Potamotrygon leopoldi (Potamotrygonidae) (75 males and 76 females) were analysed to derive a growth curve for this species. The disc width (W D) was significantly different between sexes, with females measuring 149–700 mm W D and males 109–500 mm W D. The average percentage error for vertebrae readings of the whole sample was 2·7%. The marginal increment ratio (R MI) showed an increasing trend with the highest value in November, decreasing from December on. The majority of vertebrae displaying R MI zero, occurred in September, but the annual periodicity of ring deposition throughout the year was not conclusive. Tetracycline (TCN) injected specimens were held in captivity for 13 months and displayed a fluorescent mark in vertebrae confirming a yearly periodicity of band pair formation with the translucent ring deposited in September–October. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) showed that, among the seven models considered, the best fit was obtained for the von Bertalanffy modified with W 0 (where W 0 = W D at birth) for both sexes. Growth parameters for females were: W 0 = 149 mm; W = 763·06 mm; k = 0·12 year– 1, whereas for males: W 0 = 109 mm; W = 536·4 and k = 0·22 year?1. Maximal ages were 7·2 years in males and 14·3 years in females. The species shows sexual dimorphism expressed in the growth pattern, size at maturity, longevity and asymptotic sizes. Concern for sustainability is raised due to the construction of the Belo Monte Hydroelectric Power Plant (2015 and 2016) in the State of Pará causing changes to the habitat of this species, which is endemic to the Xingu River and two of its tributaries.  相似文献   

18.
Despite microbes'' key roles in driving biogeochemical cycles, the mechanism of microbe-mediated feedbacks to global changes remains elusive. Recently, soil transplant has been successfully established as a proxy to simulate climate changes, as the current trend of global warming coherently causes range shifts toward higher latitudes. Four years after southward soil transplant over large transects in China, we found that microbial functional diversity was increased, in addition to concurrent changes in microbial biomass, soil nutrient content and functional processes involved in the nitrogen cycle. However, soil transplant effects could be overridden by maize cropping, which was attributed to a negative interaction. Strikingly, abundances of nitrogen and carbon cycle genes were increased by these field experiments simulating global change, coinciding with higher soil nitrification potential and carbon dioxide (CO2) efflux. Further investigation revealed strong correlations between carbon cycle genes and CO2 efflux in bare soil but not cropped soil, and between nitrogen cycle genes and nitrification. These findings suggest that changes of soil carbon and nitrogen cycles by soil transplant and cropping were predictable by measuring microbial functional potentials, contributing to a better mechanistic understanding of these soil functional processes and suggesting a potential to incorporate microbial communities in greenhouse gas emission modeling.  相似文献   

19.
20.
We refer to Oswaldo Cruz''s reports dating from 1913 about the necessities of ahealthcare system for the Brazilian Amazon Region and about the journey of CarlosChagas to 27 locations in this region and the measures that would need to be adopted.We discuss the risks of endemicity of Chagas disease in the Amazon Region. Werecommend that epidemiological surveillance of Chagas disease in the Brazilian AmazonRegion and Pan-Amazon region should be implemented through continuous monitoring ofthe human population that lives in the area, their housing, the environment and thepresence of triatomines. The monitoring should be performed with periodicseroepidemiological surveys, semi-annual visits to homes by health agents and thetraining of malaria microscopists and healthcare technicians to identifyTrypanosoma cruzi from patients'' samples and T.cruzi infection rates among the triatomines caught. We recommend healthpromotion and control of Chagas disease through public health policies, especiallythrough sanitary education regarding the risk factors for Chagas disease. Finally, wepropose a healthcare system through base hospitals, intermediate-level units in theareas of the Brazilian Amazon Region and air transportation, considering thedistances to be covered for medical care.  相似文献   

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