Seychelles warblers with silver spoons: Juvenile body mass is a lifelong predictor of annual survival,but not annual reproduction or senescence

The environment experienced during development, and its impact on intrinsic condition, can have lasting outcomes for individual phenotypes and could contribute to variation in adult senescence trajectories. However, the nature of this relationship in wild populations remains uncertain, owing to the difficulties in summarizing natal conditions and in long‐term monitoring of individuals from free‐roaming long‐lived species. Utilizing a closely monitored, closed population of Seychelles warblers (Acrocephalus sechellensis), we determine whether juvenile body mass is associated with natal socioenvironmental factors, specific genetic traits linked to fitness in this system, survival to adulthood, and senescence‐related traits. Juveniles born in seasons with higher food availability and into smaller natal groups (i.e., fewer competitors) were heavier. In contrast, there were no associations between juvenile body mass and genetic traits. Furthermore, size‐corrected mass—but not separate measures of natal food availability, group size, or genetic traits—was positively associated with survival to adulthood, suggesting juvenile body mass is indicative of natal condition. Heavier juveniles had greater body mass and had higher rates of annual survival as adults, independent of age. In contrast, there was no association between juvenile mass and adult telomere length attrition (a measure of somatic stress) nor annual reproduction. These results indicate that juvenile body mass, while not associated with senescence trajectories, can influence the likelihood of surviving to old age, potentially due to silver‐spoon effects. This study shows that measures of intrinsic condition in juveniles can provide important insights into the long‐term fitness of individuals in wild populations.     

Demographic responses to climate‐driven variation in habitat quality across the annual cycle of a migratory bird species

The demography and dynamics of migratory bird populations depend on patterns of movement and habitat quality across the annual cycle. We leveraged archival GPS‐tagging data, climate data, remote‐sensed vegetation data, and bird‐banding data to better understand the dynamics of black‐headed grosbeak (Pheucticus melanocephalus) populations in two breeding regions, the coast and Central Valley of California (Coastal California) and the Sierra Nevada mountain range (Sierra Nevada), over 28 years (1992–2019). Drought conditions across the annual cycle and rainfall timing on the molting grounds influenced seasonal habitat characteristics, including vegetation greenness and phenology (maturity dates). We developed a novel integrated population model with population state informed by adult capture data, recruitment rates informed by age‐specific capture data and climate covariates, and survival rates informed by adult capture–mark–recapture data and climate covariates. Population size was relatively variable among years for Coastal California, where numbers of recruits and survivors were positively correlated, and years of population increase were largely driven by recruitment. In the Sierra Nevada, population size was more consistent and showed stronger evidence of population regulation (numbers of recruits and survivors negatively correlated). Neither region showed evidence of long‐term population trend. We found only weak support for most climate–demographic rate relationships. However, recruitment rates for the Coastal California region were higher when rainfall was relatively early on the molting grounds and when wintering grounds were relatively cool and wet. We suggest that our approach of integrating movement, climate, and demographic data within a novel modeling framework can provide a useful method for better understanding the dynamics of broadly distributed migratory species.     

Decadal changes in habitat characteristics influence population trajectories of southern elephant seals

Understanding divergent biological responses to climate change is important for predicting ecosystem level consequences. We use species habitat models to predict the winter foraging habitats of female southern elephant seals and investigate how changes in environmental variables within these habitats may be related to observed decreases in the Macquarie Island population. There were three main groups of seals that specialized in different ocean realms (the sub‐Antarctic, the Ross Sea and the Victoria Land Coast). The physical and climate attributes (e.g. wind strength, sea surface height, ocean current strength) varied amongst the realms and also displayed different temporal trends over the last two to four decades. Most notably, sea ice extent increased on average in the Victoria Land realm while it decreased overall in the Ross Sea realm. Using a species distribution model relating mean residence times (time spent in each 50 × 50 km grid cell) to 9 climate and physical co‐variates, we developed spatial predictions of residence time to identify the core regions used by the seals across the Southern Ocean from 120°E to 120°W. Population size at Macquarie Island was negatively correlated with ice concentration within the core habitat of seals using the Victoria Land Coast and the Ross Sea. Sea ice extent and concentration is predicted to continue to change in the Southern Ocean, having unknown consequences for the biota of the region. The proportion of Macquarie Island females (40%) utilizing the relatively stable sub‐Antarctic region, may buffer this population against longer‐term regional changes in habitat quality, but the Macquarie Island population has persistently decreased (?1.45% per annum) over seven decades indicating that environmental changes in the Antarctic are acting on the remaining 60% of the population to impose a long‐term population decline in a top Southern Ocean predator.     

Vegetation resistance and resilience to a decade‐long dry period in the temperate grasslands in China

The duration of climate anomalies has been increasing across the globe, leading to ecosystem function loss. Thus, we need to understand the responses of the ecosystem to long‐term climate anomalies. It remains unclear how ecosystem resistance and resilience respond to long‐term climate anomalies, for example, continuous dry years at a regional scale. Taking the opportunity of a 13‐year dry period in the temperate grasslands in northern China, we quantified the resistance and resilience of the grassland in response to this periodic dry period. We found vegetation resistance to the dry period increased with mean annual precipitation (MAP), while resilience increased at first until at MAP of 250 mm and then decreased slightly. No trade‐off between resistance and resilience was detected when MAP < 250 mm. Our results highlight that xeric ecosystems are most vulnerable to the long‐term dry period. Given expected increases in drought severity and duration in the coming decades, our findings may be helpful to identify vulnerable ecosystems in the world for the purpose of adaptation.     

Investigating life‐history traits of Steller sea lions with multistate hidden Markov mark–recapture models: Age at weaning and body size effects

The duration of offspring care is critical to female fitness and population resilience by allowing flexibility in life‐history strategies in a variable environment. Yet, for many mammals capable of extended periods of maternal care, estimates of the duration of offspring dependency are not available and the relative importance of flexibility of this trait on fitness and population viability has rarely been examined. We used data from 4,447 Steller sea lions Eumetopias jubatus from the Gulf of Alaska and multistate hidden Markov mark–recapture models to estimate age‐specific weaning probabilities. Maternal care beyond age 1 was common: Weaning was later for animals from Southeast Alaska (SEAK) and Prince William Sound (PWS, weaning probabilities: 0.536–0.648/0.784–0.873 by age 1/2) compared with animals born to the west (0.714–0.855/0.798–0.938). SEAK/PWS animals were also smaller than those born farther west, suggesting a possible link. Females weaned slightly earlier (+0.080 at age 1 and 2) compared with males in SEAK only. Poor survival for weaned versus unweaned yearlings occurred in southern SEAK (female survival probabilities: 0.609 vs. 0.792) and the central Gulf (0.667 vs. 0.901), suggesting poor conditions for juveniles in these areas. First‐year survival increased with neonatal body mass (NBM) linearly in the Gulf and nonlinearly in SEAK. The probability of weaning at age 1 increased linearly with NBM for SEAK animals only. Rookeries where juveniles weaned at earlier ages had lower adult female survival, but age at weaning was unrelated to population trends. Our results suggest the time to weaning may be optimized for different habitats based on long‐term average conditions (e.g., prey dynamics), that may also shape body size, with limited short‐term plasticity. An apparent trade‐off of adult survival in favor of juvenile survival and large offspring size in the endangered Gulf of Alaska population requires further study.     

Modeling vegetation greenness and its climate sensitivity with deep‐learning technology

Climate sensitivity of vegetation has long been explored using statistical or process‐based models. However, great uncertainties still remain due to the methodologies’ deficiency in capturing the complex interactions between climate and vegetation. Here, we developed global gridded climate–vegetation models based on long short‐term memory (LSTM) network, which is a powerful deep‐learning algorithm for long‐time series modeling, to achieve accurate vegetation monitoring and investigate the complex relationship between climate and vegetation. We selected the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) that represents vegetation greenness as model outputs. The climate data (monthly temperature and precipitation) were used as inputs. We trained the networks with data from 1982 to 2003, and the data from 2004 to 2015 were used to validate the models. Error analysis and sensitivity analysis were performed to assess the model errors and investigate the sensitivity of global vegetation to climate change. Results show that models based on deep learning are very effective in simulating and predicting the vegetation greenness dynamics. For models training, the root mean square error (RMSE) is <0.01. Model validation also assure the accuracy of our models. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis of models revealed a spatial pattern of global vegetation to climate, which provides us a new way to investigate the climate sensitivity of vegetation. Our study suggests that it is a good way to integrate deep‐learning method to monitor the vegetation change under global change. In the future, we can explore more complex climatic and ecological systems with deep learning and coupling with certain physical process to better understand the nature.     

Forecasting shifts in habitat suitability of three marine predators suggests a rapid decline in inter‐specific overlap under future climate change

Understanding how environmental and climate change can alter habitat overlap of marine predators has great value for the management and conservation of marine ecosystems. Here, we estimated spatiotemporal changes in habitat suitability and inter‐specific overlap among three marine predators: Baltic gray seals (Halichoerus grypus), harbor seals (Phoca vitulina), and harbor porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) under contemporary and future conditions. Location data (>200 tagged individuals) were collected in the southwestern region of the Baltic Sea; one of the fastest‐warming semi‐enclosed seas in the world. We used the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm to estimate changes in total area size and overlap of species‐specific habitat suitability between 1997–2020 and 2091–2100. Predictor variables included environmental and climate‐sensitive oceanographic conditions in the area. Sea‐level rise, sea surface temperature, and salinity data were taken from representative concentration pathways [RCPs] scenarios 6.0 and 8.5 to forecast potential climate change effects. Model output suggested that habitat suitability of Baltic gray seals will decline over space and time, driven by changes in sea surface salinity and a loss of currently available haulout sites following sea‐level rise in the future. A similar, although weaker, effect was observed for harbor seals, while suitability of habitat for harbor porpoises was predicted to increase slightly over space and time. Inter‐specific overlap in highly suitable habitats was also predicted to increase slightly under RCP scenario 6.0 when compared to contemporary conditions, but to disappear under RCP scenario 8.5. Our study suggests that marine predators in the southwestern Baltic Sea may respond differently to future climatic conditions, leading to divergent shifts in habitat suitability that are likely to decrease inter‐specific overlap over time and space. We conclude that climate change can lead to a marked redistribution of area use by marine predators in the region, which may influence local food‐web dynamics and ecosystem functioning.     

Early‐life conditions impact juvenile telomere length,but do not predict later life‐history strategies or fitness in a wild vertebrate

Environmental conditions experienced during early life may have long‐lasting effects on later‐life phenotypes and fitness. Individuals experiencing poor early‐life conditions may suffer subsequent fitness constraints. Alternatively, individuals may use a strategic “Predictive Adaptive Response” (PAR), whereby they respond—in terms of physiology or life‐history strategy—to the conditions experienced in early life to maximize later‐life fitness. Particularly, the Future Lifespan Expectation (FLE) PAR hypothesis predicts that when poor early‐life conditions negatively impact an individual''s physiological state, it will accelerate its reproductive schedule to maximize fitness during its shorter predicted life span. We aimed to measure the impact of early‐life conditions and resulting fitness across individual lifetimes to test predictions of the FLE hypothesis in a wild, long‐lived model species. Using a long‐term individual‐based dataset, we investigated how early‐life conditions are linked with subsequent fitness in an isolated population of the Seychelles warbler Acrocephalus sechellensis. How individuals experience early‐life environmental conditions may vary greatly, so we also tested whether telomere length—shorter telomers are a biomarker of an individual''s exposure to stress—can provide an effective measure of the individual‐specific impact of early‐life conditions. Specifically, under the FLE hypothesis, we would expect shorter telomeres to be associated with accelerated reproduction. Contrary to expectations, shorter juvenile telomere length was not associated with poor early‐life conditions, but instead with better conditions, probably as a result of faster juvenile growth. Furthermore, neither juvenile telomere length, nor other measures of early‐life conditions, were associated with age of first reproduction or the number of offspring produced during early life in either sex. We found no support for the FLE hypothesis. However, for males, poor early‐life body condition was associated with lower first‐year survival and reduced longevity, indicating that poor early‐life conditions pose subsequent fitness constraints. Our results also showed that using juvenile telomere length as a measure of early‐life conditions requires caution, as it is likely to not only reflect environmental stress but also other processes such as growth.     

Density‐dependent demography and movements in a cyclic brown lemming population

Theoretical modeling predicts that both direct and delayed density‐dependence are key factors to generate population cycles. Deciphering density‐dependent processes that lead to variable population growth characterizing different phases of the cycles remains challenging. This is particularly the case for the period of prolonged low densities, which is inherently data deficient. However, demographic analyses based on long‐term capture–mark–recapture datasets can help resolve this question. We relied on a 16‐year (2004–2019) live‐trapping program to analyze the summer demography and movements of a cyclic brown lemming population in the Canadian Arctic. More specifically, we examined if inversely density‐dependent processes could explain why population growth can remain low during the prolonged low phase. We found that the proportion of females in the population was inversely density‐dependent with a strong male‐biased sex ratio at low densities but not at high densities. However, survival of adult females was higher than adult males, but both had lower survival at low densities than at high ones. Distances moved by both adult males and females were density‐dependent, and proportion of females in reproductive condition was weakly density‐dependent as it tended to increase at low density. Individual body condition, measured as monthly change in body mass, was not density‐dependent. Overall, the strong male‐biased sex ratio at very low densities suggests a loss of reproductive potential due to the rarity of females and appears to be the most susceptible demographic factor that could contribute to the prolonged low phase in cyclic brown lemmings. What leads to this sex‐bias in the first place is still unclear, potentially owing to our trapping period limited to the summer, but we suggest that it could be due to high predation rate on breeding females in winter.     

Population dynamics of the glacial relict amphipods in a subarctic lake: role of density‐dependent and density‐independent factors

Relative role of intrinsic density‐dependent factors (such as inter‐ and intraspecific competition, predation) and extrinsic density‐independent factors (environmental changes) in population dynamics is a key issue in ecology. Density‐dependent mechanisms are considered as important drivers of population dynamics in many vertebrate and insect species; however, their influence on the population dynamics of freshwater invertebrates is not clearly understood. In this study, I examined interannual variations in the abundance of the glacial relict amphipod Monoporeia affinis in a small subarctic lake based on long‐term (2002–2019) monitoring data. The results suggest that the population dynamics of amphipods in the lake is influenced by the combined effects of both intrinsic and extrinsic factors. The reproductive success of amphipod cohorts was inversely related to its initial abundance, indicating it is influenced by density‐dependent factors. M. affinis recruitment was negatively correlated with population density and near‐bottom temperature but positively correlated with food availability, which is defined as the concentration of chlorophyll a. Multiple regression with chlorophyll, temperature, and abundance of parent cohort as independent factors explained about 80% of the variation in the reproductive success of amphipods. The negative correlation between amphipod recruitment and water temperature indicates that the current climate conditions adversely affect the populations of glacial relict amphipods even in cold‐water lakes of the subarctic zone. Results of this study can be useful in environmental assessments to separate population oscillations connected with density‐dependent mechanisms from human‐mediated changes.     

Reduced habitat quality increases intrinsic but not ecological costs of reproduction

Although the costs of reproduction are predicted to vary with the quality of the breeding habitat thereby affecting population dynamics and life‐history trade‐offs, empirical evidence for this pattern remains sparse and equivocal. Costs of reproduction can operate through immediate ecological mechanisms or through delayed intrinsic mechanisms. Ignoring these separate pathways might hinder the identification of costs and the understanding of their consequences. We experimentally investigated the survival costs of reproduction for adult little owls (Athene noctua) within a gradient of habitat quality. We supplemented food to nestlings, thereby relieving the parents’ effort for brood provisioning. We used radio‐tracking and Bayesian multistate modeling based on marked recapture and dead recovery to estimate survival rates of adult little owls across the year as a function of food supplementation and habitat characteristics. Food supplementation to nestlings during the breeding season increased parental survival not only during the breeding season but also during the rest of the year. Thus, the low survival of parents of unfed broods likely represents both, strong ecological and strong intrinsic costs of reproduction. However, while immediate ecological costs occurred also in high‐quality habitats, intrinsic costs carrying over to the post‐breeding period occurred only in low‐quality habitats. Our results suggest that immediate costs resulting from ecological mechanisms such as predation, are high also in territories of high habitat quality. Long‐term costs resulting from intrinsic trade‐offs, however, are only paid in low‐quality habitats. Consequently, differential effects of habitat quality on immediate ecological and delayed intrinsic mechanisms can mask the increase of costs of reproduction in low‐quality breeding habitats. Intrinsic costs may represent an underrated mechanism of habitat quality affecting adult survival rate thereby considerably accelerating population decline in degrading habitats. This study therefore highlights the need for a long‐term perspective to fully assess the costs of reproduction and the role of habitat quality in modifying these costs.     

Long‐term nitrogen enrichment mediates the effects of nitrogen supply and co‐inoculation on a viral pathogen

Host nutrient supply can mediate host–pathogen and pathogen–pathogen interactions. In terrestrial systems, plant nutrient supply is mediated by soil microbes, suggesting a potential role of soil microbes in plant diseases beyond soil‐borne pathogens and induced plant defenses. Long‐term nitrogen (N) enrichment can shift pathogenic and nonpathogenic soil microbial community composition and function, but it is unclear if these shifts affect plant–pathogen and pathogen–pathogen interactions. In a growth chamber experiment, we tested the effect of long‐term N enrichment on infection by Barley Yellow Dwarf Virus (BYDV‐PAV) and Cereal Yellow Dwarf Virus (CYDV‐RPV), aphid‐vectored RNA viruses, in a grass host. We inoculated sterilized growing medium with soil collected from a long‐term N enrichment experiment (ambient, low, and high N soil treatments) to isolate effects mediated by the soil microbial community. We crossed soil treatments with a N supply treatment (low, high) and virus inoculation treatment (mock‐, singly‐, and co‐inoculated) to evaluate the effects of long‐term N enrichment on plant–pathogen and pathogen–pathogen interactions, as mediated by N availability. We measured the proportion of plants infected (i.e., incidence), plant biomass, and leaf chlorophyll content. BYDV‐PAV incidence (0.96) declined with low N soil (to 0.46), high N supply (to 0.61), and co‐inoculation (to 0.32). Low N soil mediated the effect of N supply on BYDV‐PAV: instead of N supply reducing BYDV‐PAV incidence, the incidence increased. Additionally, ambient and low N soil ameliorated the negative effect of co‐inoculation on BYDV‐PAV incidence. BYDV‐PAV infection only reduced chlorophyll when plants were grown with low N supply and ambient N soil. There were no significant effects of long‐term N soil on CYDV‐RPV incidence. Soil inoculant with different levels of long‐term N enrichment had different effects on host–pathogen and pathogen–pathogen interactions, suggesting that shifts in soil microbial communities with long‐term N enrichment may mediate disease dynamics.     

m6A‐mediated alternative splicing coupled with nonsense‐mediated mRNA decay regulates SAM synthetase homeostasis

Alternative splicing of pre‐mRNAs can regulate gene expression levels by coupling with nonsense‐mediated mRNA decay (NMD). In order to elucidate a repertoire of mRNAs regulated by alternative splicing coupled with NMD (AS‐NMD) in an organism, we performed long‐read RNA sequencing of poly(A)⁺ RNAs from an NMD‐deficient mutant strain of Caenorhabditis elegans, and obtained full‐length sequences for mRNA isoforms from 259 high‐confidence AS‐NMD genes. Among them are the S‐adenosyl‐L‐methionine (SAM) synthetase (sams) genes sams‐3 and sams‐4. SAM synthetase activity autoregulates sams gene expression through AS‐NMD in a negative feedback loop. We furthermore find that METT‐10, the orthologue of human U6 snRNA methyltransferase METTL16, is required for the splicing regulation in␣vivo, and specifically methylates the invariant AG dinucleotide at the distal 3′ splice site (3′SS) in␣vitro. Direct RNA sequencing coupled with machine learning confirms m⁶A modification of endogenous sams mRNAs. Overall, these results indicate that homeostasis of SAM synthetase in C. elegans is maintained by alternative splicing regulation through m⁶A modification at the 3′SS of the sams genes.     

Phenological segregation suggests speciation by time in the planktonic diatom Pseudo‐nitzschia allochrona sp. nov.

The processes leading to the emergence of new species are poorly understood in marine plankton, where weak physical barriers and homogeneous environmental conditions limit spatial and ecological segregation. Here, we combine molecular and ecological information from a long‐term time series and propose Pseudo‐nitzschia allochrona, a new cryptic planktonic diatom, as a possible case of speciation by temporal segregation. The new species differs in several genetic markers (18S, 28S and ITS rDNA fragments and rbcL) from its closest relatives, which are morphologically very similar or identical, and is reproductively isolated from its sibling species P. arenysensis. Data from a long‐term plankton time series show P. allochrona invariably occurring in summer–autumn in the Gulf of Naples, where its closely related species P. arenysensis, P. delicatissima, and P. dolorosa are instead found in winter–spring. Temperature and nutrients are the main factors associated with the occurrence of P. allochrona, which could have evolved in sympatry by switching its phenology and occupying a new ecological niche. This case of possible speciation by time shows the relevance of combining ecological time series with molecular information to shed light on the eco‐evolutionary dynamics of marine microorganisms.     

Multiple coping strategies maintain stability of a small mammal population in a resource‐restricted environment

In semi‐arid environments, aperiodic rainfall pulses determine plant production and resource availability for higher trophic levels, creating strong bottom‐up regulation. The influence of climatic factors on population vital rates often shapes the dynamics of small mammal populations in such resource‐restricted environments. Using a 21‐year biannual capture–recapture dataset (1993 to 2014), we examined the impacts of climatic factors on the population dynamics of the brush mouse (Peromyscus boylii) in semi‐arid oak woodland of coastal‐central California. We applied Pradel''s temporal symmetry model to estimate capture probability (p), apparent survival (φ), recruitment (f), and realized population growth rate (λ) of the brush mouse and examined the effects of temperature, rainfall, and El Niño on these demographic parameters. The population was stable during the study period with a monthly realized population growth rate of 0.993 ± SE 0.032, but growth varied over time from 0.680 ± 0.054 to 1.450 ± 0.083. Monthly survival estimates averaged 0.789 ± 0.005 and monthly recruitment estimates averaged 0.175 ± 0.038. Survival probability and realized population growth rate were positively correlated with rainfall and negatively correlated with temperature. In contrast, recruitment was negatively correlated with rainfall and positively correlated with temperature. Brush mice maintained their population through multiple coping strategies, with high recruitment during warmer and drier periods and higher survival during cooler and wetter conditions. Although climatic change in coastal‐central California will likely favor recruitment over survival, varying strategies may serve as a mechanism by which brush mice maintain resilience in the face of climate change. Our results indicate that rainfall and temperature are both important drivers of brush mouse population dynamics and will play a significant role in predicting the future viability of brush mice under a changing climate.     

Disentangling demographic effects of red deer on chamois population dynamics

Investigating the impact of ecological factors on sex‐ and age‐specific vital rates is essential to understand animal population dynamics and detect the potential for interactions between sympatric species. We used block count data and autoregressive linear models to investigate variation in birth rate, kid survival, female survival, and male survival in a population of Alpine chamois Rupicapra rupicapra rupicapra monitored over 27 years within the Stelvio National Park, Central Italian Alps, as function of climatic variables, density dependence, and interspecific competition with red deer Cervus elaphus. We also used path analysis to assess the indirect effect of deer abundance on chamois growth rate mediated by each demographic parameter. Based on previous findings, we predicted that birth rate at [t] would negatively relate to red deer abundance at year [t − 1]; survival rates between [t] and [t + 1] would negatively relate to red deer abundance at year [t − 1] and to the interactive effect of winter precipitation at [t + 1] and chamois density at [t]. Our results showed that birth rate was positively related to spring–summer precipitation in the previous year, but this effect was hampered by increasing red deer abundance. Kid and female survival rates were negatively related to the combined effect of chamois abundance and winter precipitation. Male and female survival rates were negatively related to lagged red deer abundance. The path analysis supported a negative indirect effect of red deer abundance on chamois growth rate mediated by birth rate and female survival. Our results suggest that chamois population dynamics was largely explained by the synergistic effect of density dependence and winter harshness, as well as by interspecific competition with red deer, whose effects were seemingly stronger on the kid–female segment of the population.     

Adaptive and nonadaptive plasticity in changing environments: Implications for sexual species with different life history strategies

Populations adapt to novel environmental conditions by genetic changes or phenotypic plasticity. Plastic responses are generally faster and can buffer fitness losses under variable conditions. Plasticity is typically modeled as random noise and linear reaction norms that assume simple one‐to‐one genotype–phenotype maps and no limits to the phenotypic response. Most studies on plasticity have focused on its effect on population viability. However, it is not clear, whether the advantage of plasticity depends solely on environmental fluctuations or also on the genetic and demographic properties (life histories) of populations. Here we present an individual‐based model and study the relative importance of adaptive and nonadaptive plasticity for populations of sexual species with different life histories experiencing directional stochastic climate change. Environmental fluctuations were simulated using differentially autocorrelated climatic stochasticity or noise color, and scenarios of directional climate change. Nonadaptive plasticity was simulated as a random environmental effect on trait development, while adaptive plasticity as a linear, saturating, or sinusoidal reaction norm. The last two imposed limits to the plastic response and emphasized flexible interactions of the genotype with the environment. Interestingly, this assumption led to (a) smaller phenotypic than genotypic variance in the population (many‐to‐one genotype–phenotype map) and the coexistence of polymorphisms, and (b) the maintenance of higher genetic variation—compared to linear reaction norms and genetic determinism—even when the population was exposed to a constant environment for several generations. Limits to plasticity led to genetic accommodation, when costs were negligible, and to the appearance of cryptic variation when limits were exceeded. We found that adaptive plasticity promoted population persistence under red environmental noise and was particularly important for life histories with low fecundity. Populations producing more offspring could cope with environmental fluctuations solely by genetic changes or random plasticity, unless environmental change was too fast.