Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity in Indonesia in 2010

Background

Malaria control programs require a detailed understanding of the contemporary spatial distribution of infection risk to efficiently allocate resources. We used model based geostatistics (MBG) techniques to generate a contemporary map of Plasmodium falciparum malaria risk in Indonesia in 2010.

Methods

Plasmodium falciparum Annual Parasite Incidence (PfAPI) data (2006–2008) were used to map limits of P. falciparum transmission. A total of 2,581 community blood surveys of P. falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) were identified (1985–2009). After quality control, 2,516 were included into a national database of age-standardized 2–10 year old PfPR data (PfPR_2–10) for endemicity mapping. A Bayesian MBG procedure was used to create a predicted surface of PfPR_2–10 endemicity with uncertainty estimates. Population at risk estimates were derived with reference to a 2010 human population count surface.

Results

We estimate 132.8 million people in Indonesia, lived at risk of P. falciparum transmission in 2010. Of these, 70.3% inhabited areas of unstable transmission and 29.7% in stable transmission. Among those exposed to stable risk, the vast majority were at low risk (93.39%) with the reminder at intermediate (6.6%) and high risk (0.01%). More people in western Indonesia lived in unstable rather than stable transmission zones. In contrast, fewer people in eastern Indonesia lived in unstable versus stable transmission areas.

Conclusion

While further feasibility assessments will be required, the immediate prospects for sustained control are good across much of the archipelago and medium term plans to transition to the pre-elimination phase are not unrealistic for P. falciparum. Endemicity in areas of Papua will clearly present the greatest challenge. This P. falciparum endemicity map allows malaria control agencies and their partners to comprehensively assess the region-specific prospects for reaching pre-elimination, monitor and evaluate the effectiveness of future strategies against this 2010 baseline and ultimately improve their evidence-based malaria control strategies.     

Estimating the Global Clinical Burden of Plasmodium falciparum Malaria in 2007

Background

The epidemiology of malaria makes surveillance-based methods of estimating its disease burden problematic. Cartographic approaches have provided alternative malaria burden estimates, but there remains widespread misunderstanding about their derivation and fidelity. The aims of this study are to present a new cartographic technique and its application for deriving global clinical burden estimates of Plasmodium falciparum malaria for 2007, and to compare these estimates and their likely precision with those derived under existing surveillance-based approaches.

Methods and Findings

In seven of the 87 countries endemic for P. falciparum malaria, the health reporting infrastructure was deemed sufficiently rigorous for case reports to be used verbatim. In the remaining countries, the mapped extent of unstable and stable P. falciparum malaria transmission was first determined. Estimates of the plausible incidence range of clinical cases were then calculated within the spatial limits of unstable transmission. A modelled relationship between clinical incidence and prevalence was used, together with new maps of P. falciparum malaria endemicity, to estimate incidence in areas of stable transmission, and geostatistical joint simulation was used to quantify uncertainty in these estimates at national, regional, and global scales.Combining these estimates for all areas of transmission risk resulted in 451 million (95% credible interval 349–552 million) clinical cases of P. falciparum malaria in 2007. Almost all of this burden of morbidity occurred in areas of stable transmission. More than half of all estimated P. falciparum clinical cases and associated uncertainty occurred in India, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and Myanmar (Burma), where 1.405 billion people are at risk.Recent surveillance-based methods of burden estimation were then reviewed and discrepancies in national estimates explored. When these cartographically derived national estimates were ranked according to their relative uncertainty and replaced by surveillance-based estimates in the least certain half, 98% of the global clinical burden continued to be estimated by cartographic techniques.

Conclusions and Significance

Cartographic approaches to burden estimation provide a globally consistent measure of malaria morbidity of known fidelity, and they represent the only plausible method in those malaria-endemic countries with nonfunctional national surveillance. Unacceptable uncertainty in the clinical burden of malaria in only four countries confounds our ability to evaluate needs and monitor progress toward international targets for malaria control at the global scale. National prevalence surveys in each nation would reduce this uncertainty profoundly. Opportunities for further reducing uncertainty in clinical burden estimates by hybridizing alternative burden estimation procedures are also evaluated. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Quantifying the Number of Pregnancies at Risk of Malaria in 2007: A Demographic Study

Background

Comprehensive and contemporary estimates of the number of pregnancies at risk of malaria are not currently available, particularly for endemic areas outside of Africa. We derived global estimates of the number of women who became pregnant in 2007 in areas with Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax transmission.

Methods and Findings

A recently published map of the global limits of P. falciparum transmission and an updated map of the limits of P. vivax transmission were combined with gridded population data and growth rates to estimate total populations at risk of malaria in 2007. Country-specific demographic data from the United Nations on age, sex, and total fertility rates were used to estimate the number of women of child-bearing age and the annual rate of live births. Subregional estimates of the number of induced abortions and country-specific stillbirths rates were obtained from recently published reviews. The number of miscarriages was estimated from the number of live births and corrected for induced abortion rates. The number of clinically recognised pregnancies at risk was then calculated as the sum of the number of live births, induced abortions, spontaneous miscarriages, and stillbirths among the population at risk in 2007. In 2007, 125.2 million pregnancies occurred in areas with P. falciparum and/or P. vivax transmission resulting in 82.6 million live births. This included 77.4, 30.3, 13.1, and 4.3 million pregnancies in the countries falling under the World Health Organization (WHO) regional offices for South-East-Asia (SEARO) and the Western-Pacific (WPRO) combined, Africa (AFRO), Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean (EURO/EMRO), and the Americas (AMRO), respectively. Of 85.3 million pregnancies in areas with P. falciparum transmission, 54.7 million occurred in areas with stable transmission and 30.6 million in areas with unstable transmission (clinical incidence <1 per 10,000 population/year); 92.9 million occurred in areas with P. vivax transmission, 53.0 million of which occurred in areas in which P. falciparum and P. vivax co-exist and 39.9 million in temperate regions with P. vivax transmission only.

Conclusions

In 2007, 54.7 million pregnancies occurred in areas with stable P. falciparum malaria and a further 70.5 million in areas with exceptionally low malaria transmission or with P. vivax only. These represent the first contemporary estimates of the global distribution of the number of pregnancies at risk of P. falciparum and P. vivax malaria and provide a first step towards a more informed estimate of the geographical distribution of infection rates and the corresponding disease burden of malaria in pregnancy. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Impact of artemisinin-based combination therapy and insecticide-treated nets on malaria burden in Zanzibar

Background

The Roll Back Malaria strategy recommends a combination of interventions for malaria control. Zanzibar implemented artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) for uncomplicated malaria in late 2003 and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) from early 2006. ACT is provided free of charge to all malaria patients, while LLINs are distributed free to children under age 5 y (“under five”) and pregnant women. We investigated temporal trends in Plasmodium falciparum prevalence and malaria-related health parameters following the implementation of these two malaria control interventions in Zanzibar.

Methods and Findings

Cross-sectional clinical and parasitological surveys in children under the age of 14 y were conducted in North A District in May 2003, 2005, and 2006. Survey data were analyzed in a logistic regression model and adjusted for complex sampling design and potential confounders. Records from all 13 public health facilities in North A District were analyzed for malaria-related outpatient visits and admissions. Mortality and demographic data were obtained from District Commissioner''s Office. P. falciparum prevalence decreased in children under five between 2003 and 2006; using 2003 as the reference year, odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were, for 2005, 0.55 (0.28–1.08), and for 2006, 0.03 (0.00–0.27); p for trend < 0.001. Between 2002 and 2005 crude under-five, infant (under age 1 y), and child (aged 1–4 y) mortality decreased by 52%, 33%, and 71%, respectively. Similarly, malaria-related admissions, blood transfusions, and malaria-attributed mortality decreased significantly by 77%, 67% and 75%, respectively, between 2002 and 2005 in children under five. Climatic conditions favorable for malaria transmission persisted throughout the observational period.

Conclusions

Following deployment of ACT in Zanzibar 2003, malaria-associated morbidity and mortality decreased dramatically within two years. Additional distribution of LLINs in early 2006 resulted in a 10-fold reduction of malaria parasite prevalence. The results indicate that the Millennium Development Goals of reducing mortality in children under five and alleviating the burden of malaria are achievable in tropical Africa with high coverage of combined malaria control interventions.     

Temporal association of acute hepatitis A and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in children

Background

In sub-Saharan Africa, Plasmodium falciparum and hepatitis A (HAV) infections are common, especially in children. Co-infections with these two pathogens may therefore occur, but it is unknown if temporal clustering exists.

Materials and Methods

We studied the pattern of co-infection of P. falciparum malaria and acute HAV in Kenyan children under the age of 5 years in a cohort of children presenting with uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria. HAV status was determined during a 3-month follow-up period.

Discussion

Among 222 cases of uncomplicated malaria, 10 patients were anti-HAV IgM positive. The incidence of HAV infections during P. falciparum malaria was 1.7 (95% CI 0.81–3.1) infections/person-year while the cumulative incidence of HAV over the 3-month follow-up period was 0.27 (95% CI 0.14–0.50) infections/person-year. Children with or without HAV co-infections had similar mean P. falciparum asexual parasite densities at presentation (31,000/µL vs. 34,000/µL, respectively), largely exceeding the pyrogenic threshold of 2,500 parasites/µL in this population and minimizing risk of over-diagnosis of malaria as an explanation.

Conclusion

The observed temporal association between acute HAV and P. falciparum malaria suggests that co-infections of these two hepatotrophic human pathogens may result from changes in host susceptibility. Testing this hypothesis will require larger prospective studies.     

Malaria prevalence, risk factors and spatial distribution in a hilly forest area of Bangladesh

Background

Malaria is a major public health concern in Bangladesh and it is highly endemic in the Chittagong Hill Tracts where prevalence was 11.7% in 2007. One sub-district, Rajasthali, had a prevalence of 36%. Several interventions were introduced in early 2007 to control malaria. This study was undertaken to evaluate the impacts of these intensive early stage interventions on malaria in Bangladesh. This prevalence study assesses whether or not high malaria prevalence remains, and if so, which areas and individuals remain at high risk of infection.

Methods and Principal Findings

A 2-stage cluster sampling technique was used to sample 1,400 of 5,322 (26.3%) households in Rajasthali, and screened using a rapid diagnostic test (Falci-vax). Overall malaria prevalence was 11.5%. The proportions of Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium vivax and infection with both species were 93.2%, 1.9% and 5.0%, respectively. Univariate, multivariate logistic regression, and spatial cluster analyses were performed separately. Sex, age, number of bed nets, forest cover, altitude and household density were potential risk factors. A statistically significant malaria cluster was identified. Significant differences among risk factors were observed between cluster and non-cluster areas.

Conclusion and Significance

Malaria has significantly decreased within 2 years after onset of intervention program. Both aspects of the physical and social environment, as well as demographic characteristics are associated with spatial heterogeneity of risk. The ability to identify and locate these areas provides a strategy for targeting interventions during initial stages of intervention programs. However, in high risk clusters of transmission, even extensive coverage by current programs leaves transmission ongoing at reduced levels. This indicates the need for continued development of new strategies for identification and treatment as well as improved understanding of the patterns and determinants of parasitaemia.     

Plasmodium vivax and mixed infections are associated with severe malaria in children: a prospective cohort study from Papua New Guinea

Background

Severe malaria (SM) is classically associated with Plasmodium falciparum infection. Little information is available on the contribution of P. vivax to severe disease. There are some epidemiological indications that P. vivax or mixed infections protect against complications and deaths. A large morbidity surveillance conducted in an area where the four species coexist allowed us to estimate rates of SM among patients infected with one or several species.

Methods and Findings

This was a prospective cohort study conducted within the framework of the Malaria Vaccine Epidemiology and Evaluation Project. All presumptive malaria cases presenting at two rural health facilities over an 8-y period were investigated with history taking, clinical examination, and laboratory assessment. Case definition of SM was based on the World Health Organization (WHO) criteria adapted for the setting (i.e., clinical diagnosis of malaria associated with asexual blood stage parasitaemia and recent history of fits, or coma, or respiratory distress, or anaemia [haemoglobin < 5 g/dl]). Out of 17,201 presumptive malaria cases, 9,537 (55%) had a confirmed Plasmodium parasitaemia. Among those, 6.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] 5.7%–6.8%) fulfilled the case definition of SM, most of them in children <5 y. In this age group, the proportion of SM was 11.7% (10.4%–13.2%) for P. falciparum, 8.8% (7.1%–10.7%) for P. vivax, and 17.3% (11.7%–24.2%) for mixed P. falciparum and P. vivax infections. P. vivax SM presented more often with respiratory distress than did P. falciparum (60% versus 41%, p = 0.002), but less often with anaemia (19% versus 41%, p = 0.0001).

Conclusion

P. vivax monoinfections as well as mixed Plasmodium infections are associated with SM. There is no indication that mixed infections protected against SM. Interventions targeted toward P. falciparum only might be insufficient to eliminate the overall malaria burden, and especially severe disease, in areas where P. falciparum and P. vivax coexist.     

Molecular malaria epidemiology: mapping and burden estimates for the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2007

Background

Epidemiologic data on malaria are scant in many high-burden countries including the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which suffers the second-highest global burden of malaria. Malaria control efforts in regions with challenging infrastructure require reproducible and efficient surveillance. We employed new high-throughput molecular testing to characterize the state of malaria control in the DRC and estimate childhood mortality attributable to excess malaria transmission.

Methods and Findings

The Demographic and Health Survey was a cross-sectional, population-based cluster household survey of adults aged 15–59 years in 2007 employing structured questionnaires and dried blood spot collection. Parasitemia was detected by real-time PCR, and survey responses measured adoption of malaria control measures and under-5 health indices. The response rate was 99% at the household level, and 8,886 households were surveyed in 300 clusters; from 8,838 respondents molecular results were available. The overall prevalence of parasitemia was 33.5% (95% confidence interval [C.I.] 32–34.9); P. falciparum was the most prevalent species, either as monoinfection (90.4%; 95% C.I. 88.8–92.1) or combined with P. malariae (4.9%; 95% C.I. 3.7–5.9) or P. ovale (0.6%; 95% C.I. 0.1–0.9). Only 7.7% (95% CI 6.8–8.6) of households with children under 5 owned an insecticide-treated bednet (ITN), and only 6.8% (95% CI 6.1–7.5) of under-fives slept under an ITN the preceding night. The overall under-5 mortality rate was 147 deaths per 1,000 live births (95% C.I. 141–153) and between clusters was associated with increased P. falciparum prevalence; based on the population attributable fraction, 26,488 yearly under-5 deaths were attributable to excess malaria transmission.

Conclusions

Adult P. falciparum prevalence is substantial in the DRC and is associated with under-5 mortality. Molecular testing offers a new, generalizable, and efficient approach to characterizing malaria endemicity in underserved countries.     

Antibody-mediated growth inhibition of Plasmodium falciparum: relationship to age and protection from parasitemia in Kenyan children and adults

Background

Antibodies that impair Plasmodium falciparum merozoite invasion and intraerythrocytic development are one of several mechanisms that mediate naturally acquired immunity to malaria. Attempts to correlate anti-malaria antibodies with risk of infection and morbidity have yielded inconsistent results. Growth inhibition assays (GIA) offer a convenient method to quantify functional antibody activity against blood stage malaria.

Methods

A treatment-time-to-infection study was conducted over 12-weeks in a malaria holoendemic area of Kenya. Plasma collected from healthy individuals (98 children and 99 adults) before artemether-lumefantrine treatment was tested by GIA in three separate laboratories.

Results

Median GIA levels varied with P. falciparum line (D10, 8.8%; 3D7, 34.9%; FVO, 51.4% inhibition). The magnitude of growth inhibition decreased with age in all P. falciparum lines tested with the highest median levels among children <4 years compared to adults (e.g. 3D7, 45.4% vs. 30.0% respectively, p = 0.0003). Time-to-infection measured by weekly blood smears was significantly associated with level of GIA controlling for age. Upper quartile inhibition activity was associated with less risk of infection compared to individuals with lower levels (e.g. 3D7, hazard ratio = 1.535, 95% CI = 1.012–2.329; p = 0.0438). Various GIA methodologies had little effect on measured parasite growth inhibition.

Conclusion

Plasma antibody-mediated growth inhibition of blood stage P. falciparum decreases with age in residents of a malaria holoendemic area. Growth inhibition assay may be a useful surrogate of protection against infection when outcome is controlled for age.     

Increased Microerythrocyte Count in Homozygous ��+-Thalassaemia Contributes to Protection against Severe Malarial Anaemia

Background

The heritable haemoglobinopathy α⁺-thalassaemia is caused by the reduced synthesis of α-globin chains that form part of normal adult haemoglobin (Hb). Individuals homozygous for α⁺-thalassaemia have microcytosis and an increased erythrocyte count. α⁺-Thalassaemia homozygosity confers considerable protection against severe malaria, including severe malarial anaemia (SMA) (Hb concentration < 50 g/l), but does not influence parasite count. We tested the hypothesis that the erythrocyte indices associated with α⁺-thalassaemia homozygosity provide a haematological benefit during acute malaria.

Methods and Findings

Data from children living on the north coast of Papua New Guinea who had participated in a case-control study of the protection afforded by α⁺-thalassaemia against severe malaria were reanalysed to assess the genotype-specific reduction in erythrocyte count and Hb levels associated with acute malarial disease. We observed a reduction in median erythrocyte count of ∼1.5 × 10¹²/l in all children with acute falciparum malaria relative to values in community children (p < 0.001). We developed a simple mathematical model of the linear relationship between Hb concentration and erythrocyte count. This model predicted that children homozygous for α⁺-thalassaemia lose less Hb than children of normal genotype for a reduction in erythrocyte count of >1.1 × 10¹²/l as a result of the reduced mean cell Hb in homozygous α⁺-thalassaemia. In addition, children homozygous for α⁺-thalassaemia require a 10% greater reduction in erythrocyte count than children of normal genotype (p = 0.02) for Hb concentration to fall to 50 g/l, the cutoff for SMA. We estimated that the haematological profile in children homozygous for α⁺-thalassaemia reduces the risk of SMA during acute malaria compared to children of normal genotype (relative risk 0.52; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.24–1.12, p = 0.09).

Conclusions

The increased erythrocyte count and microcytosis in children homozygous for α⁺-thalassaemia may contribute substantially to their protection against SMA. A lower concentration of Hb per erythrocyte and a larger population of erythrocytes may be a biologically advantageous strategy against the significant reduction in erythrocyte count that occurs during acute infection with the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum. This haematological profile may reduce the risk of anaemia by other Plasmodium species, as well as other causes of anaemia. Other host polymorphisms that induce an increased erythrocyte count and microcytosis may confer a similar advantage.     

Clearance of asymptomatic P. falciparum Infections Interacts with the number of clones to predict the risk of subsequent malaria in Kenyan children

Background

Protective immunity to malaria is acquired after repeated infections in endemic areas. Asymptomatic multiclonal P. falciparum infections are common and may predict host protection. Here, we have investigated the effect of clearing asymptomatic infections on the risk of clinical malaria.

Methods

Malaria episodes were continuously monitored in 405 children (1–6 years) in an area of moderate transmission, coastal Kenya. Blood samples collected on four occasions were assessed by genotyping the polymorphic P. falciparum merozoite surface protein 2 using fluorescent PCR and capillary electrophoresis. Following the second survey, asymptomatic infections were cleared with a full course of dihydroartemisinin.

Results

Children who were parasite negative by PCR had a lower risk of subsequent malaria regardless of whether treatment had been given. Children with ≥2 clones had a reduced risk of febrile malaria compared with 1 clone after clearance of asymptomatic infections, but not if asymptomatic infections were not cleared. Multiclonal infection was associated with an increased risk of re-infection after drug treatment. However, among the children who were re-infected, multiclonal infections were associated with a shift from clinical malaria to asymptomatic parasitaemia.

Conclusion

The number of clones was associated with exposure as well as blood stage immunity. These effects were distinguished by clearing asymptomatic infection with anti-malarials. Exposure to multiple P. falciparum infections is associated with protective immunity, but there appears to be an additional effect in untreated multiclonal infections that offsets this protective effect.     

Multidrug-resistant Plasmodium vivax associated with severe and fatal malaria: a prospective study in Papua, Indonesia

Background

Multidrug-resistant Plasmodium vivax (Pv) is widespread in eastern Indonesia, and emerging elsewhere in Asia-Pacific and South America, but is generally regarded as a benign disease. The aim of the study was to review the spectrum of disease associated with malaria due to Pv and P. falciparum (Pf) in patients presenting to a hospital in Timika, southern Papua, Indonesia.

Methods and Findings

Data were prospectively collected from all patients attending the outpatient and inpatient departments of the only hospital in the region using systematic data forms and hospital computerised records. Between January 2004 and December 2007, clinical malaria was present in 16% (60,226/373,450) of hospital outpatients and 32% (12,171/37,800) of inpatients. Among patients admitted with slide-confirmed malaria, 64% of patients had Pf, 24% Pv, and 10.5% mixed infections. The proportion of malarial admissions attributable to Pv rose to 47% (415/887) in children under 1 y of age. Severe disease was present in 2,634 (22%) inpatients with malaria, with the risk greater among Pv (23% [675/2,937]) infections compared to Pf (20% [1,570/7,817]; odds ratio [OR] = 1.19 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08–1.32], p = 0.001), and greatest in patients with mixed infections (31% [389/1,273]); overall p < 0.0001. Severe anaemia (haemoglobin < 5 g/dl) was the major complication associated with Pv, accounting for 87% (589/675) of severe disease compared to 73% (1,144/1,570) of severe manifestations with Pf (p < 0.001). Pure Pv infection was also present in 78 patients with respiratory distress and 42 patients with coma. In total 242 (2.0%) patients with malaria died during admission: 2.2% (167/7,722) with Pf, 1.6% (46/2,916) with Pv, and 2.3% (29/1260) with mixed infections (p = 0.126).

Conclusions

In this region with established high-grade chloroquine resistance to both Pv and Pf, Pv is associated with severe and fatal malaria particularly in young children. The epidemiology of P. vivax needs to be re-examined elsewhere where chloroquine resistance is increasing.     

A randomised, double-blind, controlled vaccine efficacy trial of DNA/MVA ME-TRAP against malaria infection in Gambian adults

Background

Many malaria vaccines are currently in development, although very few have been evaluated for efficacy in the field. Plasmodium falciparum multiple epitope (ME)– thrombospondin-related adhesion protein (TRAP) candidate vaccines are designed to potently induce effector T cells and so are a departure from earlier malaria vaccines evaluated in the field in terms of their mechanism of action. ME-TRAP vaccines encode a polyepitope string and the TRAP sporozoite antigen. Two vaccine vectors encoding ME-TRAP, plasmid DNA and modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA), when used sequentially in a prime-boost immunisation regime, induce high frequencies of effector T cells and partial protection, manifest as delay in time to parasitaemia, in a clinical challenge model.

Methods and Findings

A total of 372 Gambian men aged 15–45 y were randomised to receive either DNA ME-TRAP followed by MVA ME-TRAP or rabies vaccine (control). Of these men, 296 received three doses of vaccine timed to coincide with the beginning of the transmission season (141 in the DNA/MVA group and 155 in the rabies group) and were followed up. Volunteers were given sulphadoxine/pyrimethamine 2 wk before the final vaccination. Blood smears were collected weekly for 11 wk and whenever a volunteer developed symptoms compatible with malaria during the transmission season. The primary endpoint was time to first infection with asexual P. falciparum. Analysis was per protocol.DNA ME-TRAP and MVA ME-TRAP were safe and well-tolerated. Effector T cell responses to a non-vaccine strain of TRAP were 50-fold higher postvaccination in the malaria vaccine group than in the rabies vaccine group. Vaccine efficacy, adjusted for confounding factors, was 10.3% (95% confidence interval, −22% to +34%; p = 0.49). Incidence of malaria infection decreased with increasing age and was associated with ethnicity.

Conclusions

DNA/MVA heterologous prime-boost vaccination is safe and highly immunogenic for effector T cell induction in a malaria-endemic area. But despite having produced a substantial reduction in liver-stage parasites in challenge studies of non-immune volunteers, this first generation T cell–inducing vaccine was ineffective at reducing the natural infection rate in semi-immune African adults.     

Costs of Eliminating Malaria and the Impact of the Global Fund in 34 Countries

Background

International financing for malaria increased more than 18-fold between 2000 and 2011; the largest source came from The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund). Countries have made substantial progress, but achieving elimination requires sustained finances to interrupt transmission and prevent reintroduction. Since 2011, global financing for malaria has declined, fueling concerns that further progress will be impeded, especially for current malaria-eliminating countries that may face resurgent malaria if programs are disrupted.

Objectives

This study aims to 1) assess past total and Global Fund funding to the 34 current malaria-eliminating countries, and 2) estimate their future funding needs to achieve malaria elimination and prevent reintroduction through 2030.

Methods

Historical funding is assessed against trends in country-level malaria annual parasite incidences (APIs) and income per capita. Following Kizewski et al. (2007), program costs to eliminate malaria and prevent reintroduction through 2030 are estimated using a deterministic model. The cost parameters are tailored to a package of interventions aimed at malaria elimination and prevention of reintroduction.

Results

The majority of Global Fund-supported countries experiencing increases in total funding from 2005 to 2010 coincided with reductions in malaria APIs and also overall GNI per capita average annual growth. The total amount of projected funding needed for the current malaria-eliminating countries to achieve elimination and prevent reintroduction through 2030 is approximately US$8.5 billion, or about $1.84 per person at risk per year (PPY) (ranging from $2.51 PPY in 2014 to $1.43 PPY in 2030).

Conclusions

Although external donor funding, particularly from the Global Fund, has been key for many malaria-eliminating countries, sustained and sufficient financing is critical for furthering global malaria elimination. Projected cost estimates for elimination provide policymakers with an indication of the level of financial resources that should be mobilized to achieve malaria elimination goals.     

Hepatitis C virus infection may lead to slower emergence of P. falciparum in blood

Background

Areas endemic for Plasmodium falciparum, hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) overlap in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa. HBV and HCV infections develop in the liver, where takes place the first development stage of P. falciparum before its further spread in blood. The complex mechanisms involved in the development of hepatitis may potentially influence the development of the liver stage of malaria parasites. Understanding the molecular mechanisms of these interactions could provide new pathophysiological insights for treatment strategies in Malaria.

Methodology

We studied a cohort of 319 individuals living in a village where the three infections are prevalent. The patients were initially given a curative antimalarial treatment and were then monitored for the emergence of asexual P. falciparum forms in blood, fortnightly for one year, by microscopy and polymerase chain reaction.

Principal Findings

At inclusion, 65 (20.4%) subjects had detectable malaria parasites in blood, 36 (11.3%) were HBV chronic carriers, and 61 (18.9%) were HCV chronic carriers. During follow-up, asexual P. falciparum forms were detected in the blood of 203 patients. The median time to P. falciparum emergence in blood was respectively 140 and 120 days in HBV- and HBV+ individuals, and 135 and 224 days in HCV- and HCV+ individuals. HCV carriage was associated with delayed emergence of asexual P. falciparum forms in blood relative to patients without HCV infection.

Conclusions

This pilot study represents first tentative evidence of a potential epidemiological interaction between HBV, HCV and P. falciparum infections. Age is an important confounding factor in this setting however multivariate analysis points to an interaction between P. falciparum and HCV at the hepatic level with a slower emergence of P. falciparum in HCV chronic carriers. More in depth analysis are necessary to unravel the basis of hepatic interactions between these two pathogens, which could help in identifying new therapeutic approaches against malaria.     

Influences of intermittent preventive treatment and persistent multiclonal Plasmodium falciparum infections on clinical malaria risk

Background

Intermittent preventive treatment (IPT) of malaria involves administration of curative doses of antimalarials at specified time points to vulnerable populations in endemic areas, regardless whether a subject is known to be infected. The effect of this new intervention on the development and maintenance of protective immunity needs further understanding. We have investigated how seasonal IPT affects the genetic diversity of Plasmodium falciparum infections and the risk of subsequent clinical malaria.

Material and Methods

The study included 2227 Ghanaian children (3–59 months) who were given sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) bimonthly, artesunate plus amodiaquine (AS+AQ) monthly or bimonthly, or placebo monthly for six months spanning the malaria transmission season. Blood samples collected at three post-interventional surveys were analysed by genotyping of the polymorphic merozoite surface protein 2 gene. Malaria morbidity and anaemia was monitored during 12 months follow-up.

Results

Monthly IPT with AS+AQ resulted in a marked reduction in number of concurrent clones and only children parasite negative just after the intervention period developed clinical malaria during follow-up. In the placebo group, children without parasites as well as those infected with ≥2 clones had a reduced risk of subsequent malaria. The bimonthly SP or AS+AQ groups had similar number of clones as placebo after intervention; however, diversity and parasite negativity did not predict the risk of malaria. An interaction effect showed that multiclonal infections were only associated with protection in children without intermittent treatment.

Conclusion

Molecular typing revealed effects of the intervention not detected by ordinary microscopy. Effective seasonal IPT temporarily reduced the prevalence and genetic diversity of P. falciparum infections. The reduced risk of malaria in children with multiclonal infections only seen in untreated children suggests that persistence of antigenically diverse P. falciparum infections is important for the maintenance of protective malaria immunity in high transmission settings.     

Worldwide incidence of malaria in 2009: estimates, time trends, and a critique of methods

Background

Measuring progress towards Millennium Development Goal 6, including estimates of, and time trends in, the number of malaria cases, has relied on risk maps constructed from surveys of parasite prevalence, and on routine case reports compiled by health ministries. Here we present a critique of both methods, illustrated with national incidence estimates for 2009.

Methods and Findings

We compiled information on the number of cases reported by National Malaria Control Programs in 99 countries with ongoing malaria transmission. For 71 countries we estimated the total incidence of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax by adjusting the number of reported cases using data on reporting completeness, the proportion of suspects that are parasite-positive, the proportion of confirmed cases due to each Plasmodium species, and the extent to which patients use public sector health facilities. All four factors varied markedly among countries and regions. For 28 African countries with less reliable routine surveillance data, we estimated the number of cases from model-based methods that link measures of malaria transmission with case incidence. In 2009, 98% of cases were due to P. falciparum in Africa and 65% in other regions. There were an estimated 225 million malaria cases (5th–95th centiles, 146–316 million) worldwide, 176 (110–248) million in the African region, and 49 (36–68) million elsewhere. Our estimates are lower than other published figures, especially survey-based estimates for non-African countries.

Conclusions

Estimates of malaria incidence derived from routine surveillance data were typically lower than those derived from surveys of parasite prevalence. Carefully interpreted surveillance data can be used to monitor malaria trends in response to control efforts, and to highlight areas where malaria programs and health information systems need to be strengthened. As malaria incidence declines around the world, evaluation of control efforts will increasingly rely on robust systems of routine surveillance. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Stool microbiota composition is associated with the prospective risk of Plasmodium falciparum infection

Background

In humans it is unknown if the composition of the gut microbiota alters the risk of Plasmodium falciparum infection or the risk of developing febrile malaria once P. falciparum infection is established. Here we collected stool samples from a cohort composed of 195 Malian children and adults just prior to an intense P. falciparum transmission season. We assayed these samples using massively parallel sequencing of the 16S ribosomal RNA gene to identify the composition of the gut bacterial communities in these individuals. During the ensuing 6-month P. falciparum transmission season we examined the relationship between the stool microbiota composition of individuals in this cohort and their prospective risk of both P. falciparum infection and febrile malaria.

Results

Consistent with prior studies, stool microbial diversity in the present cohort increased with age, although the overall microbiota profile was distinct from cohorts in other regions of Africa, Asia and North America. Age-adjusted Cox regression analysis revealed a significant association between microbiota composition and the prospective risk of P. falciparum infection; however, no relationship was observed between microbiota composition and the risk of developing febrile malaria once P. falciparum infection was established.

Conclusions

These findings underscore the diversity of gut microbiota across geographic regions, and suggest that strategic modulation of gut microbiota composition could decrease the risk of P. falciparum infection in malaria-endemic areas, potentially as an adjunct to partially effective malaria vaccines.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12864-015-1819-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Surveillance for malaria elimination in Swaziland: a national cross-sectional study using pooled PCR and serology

Background

To guide malaria elimination efforts in Swaziland and other countries, accurate assessments of transmission are critical. Pooled-PCR has potential to efficiently improve sensitivity to detect infections; serology may clarify temporal and spatial trends in exposure.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Using a stratified two-stage cluster, cross-sectional design, subjects were recruited from the malaria endemic region of Swaziland. Blood was collected for rapid diagnostic testing (RDT), pooled PCR, and ELISA detecting antibodies to Plasmodium falciparum surface antigens. Of 4330 participants tested, three were RDT-positive yet false positives by PCR. Pooled PCR led to the identification of one P. falciparum and one P. malariae infection among RDT-negative participants. The P. falciparum-infected participant reported recent travel to Mozambique. Compared to performing individual testing on thousands of samples, PCR pooling reduced labor and consumable costs by 95.5%. Seropositivity was associated with age ≥20 years (11·7% vs 1·9%, P<0.001), recent travel to Mozambique (OR 4.4 [95% CI 1.0–19.0]) and residence in southeast Swaziland (RR 3.78, P<0.001).

Conclusions

The prevalence of malaria infection and recent exposure in Swaziland are extremely low, suggesting elimination is feasible. Future efforts should address imported malaria and target remaining foci of transmission. Pooled PCR and ELISA are valuable surveillance tools for guiding elimination efforts.