Climate change affects populations of northern birds in boreal protected areas

Human land-use effects on species populations are minimized in protected areas and population changes can thus be more directly linked with changes in climate. In this study, bird population changes in 96 protected areas in Finland were compared using quantitative bird census data, between two time slices, 1981-1999 and 2000-2009, with the mean time span being 14 years. Bird species were categorized by distribution pattern and migratory strategy. Our results showed that northern bird species had declined by 21 per cent and southern species increased by 29 per cent in boreal protected areas during the study period, alongside a clear rise (0.7-0.8 °C) in mean temperatures. Distribution pattern was the main factor, with migratory strategy interacting in explaining population changes in boreal birds. Migration strategy interacted with distribution pattern so that, among northern birds, densities of both migratory and resident species declined, whereas among southern birds they both increased. The observed decline of northern species and increase in southern species are in line with the predictions of range shifts of these species groups under a warming climate, and suggest that the population dynamics of birds are already changing in natural boreal habitats in association with changing climate.     

The potential impacts of global climate change on marine protected areas

The potential effects of global climate changeon marine protected areas do not appear to havebeen addressed in the literature. This paperexamines the literature on protected areas,conservation biology, marine ecology,oceanography, and climate change, and reviewssome of the relevant differences between marineand terrestrial environments. Frameworks andclassifications systems used in protected areadesign are discussed. Finally, a frameworkthat summarizes some of the importantoceanographic processes and their links to thefood chain are reviewed. Species abundance anddistribution are expected to change as a resultof global climate change, potentiallycompromising the efficacy of marine protectedareas as biodiversity conservation tools. Thisreview suggests the need for: furtherinterdisciplinary research and the use oflinked models; an increase in marine protectedareas for biodiversity conservation and asresearch sites for teasing apart fishingeffects from climate effects; a temporallyresponsive approach to siting new marineprotected areas, shifting their locations ifnecessary; and large-scale ecosystem/integratedmanagement approaches to address the competinguses of the oceans and boundary-less threatssuch as global climate change and pollution.     

Effectiveness of natural protected areas to prevent land use and land cover change in Mexico

This study evaluated the extent to which natural protected areas (NPAs) in Mexico have been effective for preventing land use/land cover change, considered as a major cause of other degradation processes. We developed an effectiveness index including NPA percentage of transformed areas (agriculture, induced vegetation, forestry plantations, and human settlements) in 2002, the rate and absolute extent of change in these areas (1993–2002), the comparison between rates of change observed inside the NPA and in an equivalent surrounding area, and between the NPA and the state(s) in which it is located. We chose 69 terrestrial federal NPAs, decreed before 1997, that were larger than 1,000 ha, not urban/reforested with non-native vegetation, not islands and not coastal strips, and estimated the extent of transformed areas using 1993 and 2002 land use/land cover maps. Over 54% of NPAs were effective, and were heterogeneously distributed by management categories: 65% of Biosphere Reserves, 53% of Flora and Fauna Protection Areas, and 45% of National Parks. 23% of NPAs were regarded as weakly effective, and the remaining 23% as non-effective. We recognize the importance of NPAs as a relevant conservation instrument, as half of NPAs analyzed (particularly biosphere reserves) prevented natural vegetation loss compared with their geographic context. Our results suggest that conservation based on NPAs in Mexico still faces significant challenges. Our approach can be expanded for evaluating the effectiveness of NPA in other regions, as land use/land cover maps are now available almost worldwide.     

Assessment of wildlife populations trends in three protected areas in Tanzania from 1991 to 2012

Wildlife populations have been experiencing declines across western, central and eastern Africa. In Tanzania, a national wildlife policy was instituted in 1998 to increase protection of wildlife. We assessed (i) the extent to which large herbivore populations have continued to decline in density and distribution within three representative protected areas (PAs) since the implementation of the wildlife policy; (ii) how consistent rates of decline were among the PAs, and between inside the PAs or land bordering these PAs; and (iii) how similar changes in abundance have been among herbivore species or groupings of species. We used aerial census data from 1991 to 2012 for the Tarangire, Ruaha‐Rungwa and Katavi‐Rukwa PAs for our assessment. Population densities of three of six species or groupings of species dropped by 7.3 ± 3.4% to 11.7 ± 5.8% per year across the three PAs, both inside and outside. Similarly, the extent of the range occupied by these species or groupings in these PAs decreased by 92.3 ± 103.0% to 95.7 ± 102.6% per year. These patterns suggest that the wildlife policy has yet to achieve its aim of reversing the habitat changes and illegal harvests affecting these species.     

The role of protected areas in land use/land cover change and the carbon cycle in the conterminous United States

Protected areas (PAs) cover about 22% of the conterminous United States. Understanding their role on historical land use and land cover change (LULCC) and on the carbon cycle is essential to provide guidance for environmental policies. In this study, we compiled historical LULCC and PAs data to explore these interactions within the terrestrial ecosystem model (TEM). We found that intensive LULCC occurred in the conterminous United States from 1700 to 2005. More than 3 million km² of forest, grassland and shrublands were converted into agricultural lands, which caused 10,607 Tg C release from land ecosystems to atmosphere. PAs had experienced little LULCC as they were generally established in the 20th century after most of the agricultural expansion had occurred. PAs initially acted as a carbon source due to land use legacies, but their accumulated carbon budget switched to a carbon sink in the 1960s, sequestering an estimated 1,642 Tg C over 1700–2005, or 13.4% of carbon losses in non‐PAs. We also find that PAs maintain larger carbon stocks and continue sequestering carbon in recent years (2001–2005), but at a lower rate due to increased heterotrophic respiration as well as lower productivity associated to aging ecosystems. It is essential to continue efforts to maintain resilient, biodiverse ecosystems and avoid large‐scale disturbances that would release large amounts of carbon in PAs.     

Leaf-cutting ant nests near roads increase fitness of exotic plant species in natural protected areas

Understanding the mechanisms that promote the invasion of natural protected areas by exotic plants is a central concern for ecology. We demonstrated that nests of the leaf-cutting ant, Acromyrmex lobicornis, near roadsides promote the abundance, growth and reproduction of two exotic plant species, Carduus nutans and Onopordum acanthium, in a national park in northern Patagonia, Argentina and determine the mechanisms that produce these effects. Refuse dumps (RDs) from ant nests have a higher nutrient content than nearby non-nest soils (NNSs); foliar nutrient content and their 15N isotopic signature strongly suggest that plants reach and use these nutrients. Both species of exotic plants in RDs were 50-600% more abundant; seedlings had 100-1000% more foliar area and root and leaf biomass; and adult plants produced 100-300% more seeds than nearby NNS plants. Plants can thus gain access to and benefit from the nutrient content of ant RD, supporting the hypotheses that enhanced resource availability promotes exotic plant performance that could increase the likelihood of biological invasions. The two exotics produce an estimated of 8385000 more seeds ha(-1) in areas with ant nests compared with areas without; this exceptional increase in seed production represents a potential threat to nearby non-invaded communities. We propose several management strategies to mitigate this threat. Removal efforts of exotics should be focused on ant RDs, where plants are denser and represent a higher source of propagules.     

North Sea ecosystem change from swimming crabs to seagulls

A recent increase in sea temperature has established a new ecosystem dynamic regime in the North Sea. Climate-induced changes in decapods have played an important role. Here, we reveal a coincident increase in the abundance of swimming crabs and lesser black-backed gull colonies in the North Sea, both in time and in space. Swimming crabs are an important food source for lesser black-backed gulls during the breeding season. Inhabiting the land, but feeding mainly at sea, lesser black-backed gulls provide a link between marine and terrestrial ecosystems, since the bottom-up influence of allochthonous nutrient input from seabirds to coastal soils can structure the terrestrial food web. We, therefore, suggest that climate-driven changes in trophic interactions in the marine food web may also have ensuing ramifications for the coastal ecology of the North Sea.     

Evolutionary rescue and adaptation to abrupt environmental change depends upon the history of stress

Whether evolution will be rapid enough to rescue declining populations will depend upon population size, the supply of genetic variation, the degree of maladaptation and the historical direction of selection. We examined whether the level of environmental stress experienced by a population prior to abrupt environmental change affects the probability of evolutionary rescue (ER). Hundreds of populations of two species of yeast, Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Saccharomyces paradoxus were exposed to a range of sublethal concentrations of salt for approximately a hundred generations before transfer to a concentration of salt lethal to the ancestor (150 g l^–1 NaCl). The fitness of surviving populations of both species was a quadratic function of yield: fitness was greatest for large populations that had been selected on low salt concentrations (less than 20 g l⁻¹ NaCl) and small populations that had adapted to high salt (more than 80 g l⁻¹ NaCl). However, differences occurred between species in the probability of ER. The frequency of ER was positively correlated with salt concentration for S. cerevisiae, but negatively correlated with salt concentration in S. paradoxus. These results not only demonstrate that past environmental conditions can determine the probability of ER after abrupt environmental change, but also suggest that there may even be differences between closely related species that are worth further exploration.     

A demographic approach to study effects of climate change in desert plants

Desert species respond strongly to infrequent, intense pulses of precipitation. Consequently, indigenous flora has developed a rich repertoire of life-history strategies to deal with fluctuations in resource availability. Examinations of how future climate change will affect the biota often forecast negative impacts, but these—usually correlative—approaches overlook precipitation variation because they are based on averages. Here, we provide an overview of how variable precipitation affects perennial and annual desert plants, and then implement an innovative, mechanistic approach to examine the effects of precipitation on populations of two desert plant species. This approach couples robust climatic projections, including variable precipitation, with stochastic, stage-structured models constructed from long-term demographic datasets of the short-lived Cryptantha flava in the Colorado Plateau Desert (USA) and the annual Carrichtera annua in the Negev Desert (Israel). Our results highlight these populations'' potential to buffer future stochastic precipitation. Population growth rates in both species increased under future conditions: wetter, longer growing seasons for Cryptantha and drier years for Carrichtera. We determined that such changes are primarily due to survival and size changes for Cryptantha and the role of seed bank for Carrichtera. Our work suggests that desert plants, and thus the resources they provide, might be more resilient to climate change than previously thought.     

Leaf morphology shift linked to climate change

Climate change is driving adaptive shifts within species, but research on plants has been focused on phenology. Leaf morphology has demonstrated links with climate and varies within species along climate gradients. We predicted that, given within-species variation along a climate gradient, a morphological shift should have occurred over time due to climate change. We tested this prediction, taking advantage of latitudinal and altitudinal variations within the Adelaide Geosyncline region, South Australia, historical herbarium specimens (n = 255) and field sampling (n = 274). Leaf width in the study taxon, Dodonaea viscosa subsp. angustissima, was negatively correlated with latitude regionally, and leaf area was negatively correlated with altitude locally. Analysis of herbarium specimens revealed a 2 mm decrease in leaf width (total range 1-9 mm) over 127 years across the region. The results are consistent with a morphological response to contemporary climate change. We conclude that leaf width is linked to maximum temperature regionally (latitude gradient) and leaf area to minimum temperature locally (altitude gradient). These data indicate a morphological shift consistent with a direct response to climate change and could inform provenance selection for restoration with further investigation of the genetic basis and adaptive significance of observed variation.     

Phenology of two interdependent traits in migratory birds in response to climate change

In migratory birds, arrival date and hatching date are two key phenological markers that have responded to global warming. A body of knowledge exists relating these traits to evolutionary pressures. In this study, we formalize this knowledge into general mathematical assumptions, and use them in an ecoevolutionary model. In contrast to previous models, this study novelty accounts for both traits—arrival date and hatching date—and the interdependence between them, revealing when one, the other or both will respond to climate. For all models sharing the assumptions, the following phenological responses will occur. First, if the nestling-prey peak is late enough, hatching is synchronous with, and arrival date evolves independently of, prey phenology. Second, when resource availability constrains the length of the pre-laying period, hatching is adaptively asynchronous with prey phenology. Predictions for both traits compare well with empirical observations. In response to advancing prey phenology, arrival date may advance, remain unchanged, or even become delayed; the latter occurring when egg-laying resources are only available relatively late in the season. The model shows that asynchronous hatching and unresponsive arrival date are not sufficient evidence that phenological adaptation is constrained. The work provides a framework for exploring microevolution of interdependent phenological traits.     

Climate variability slows evolutionary responses of Colias butterflies to recent climate change

How does recent climate warming and climate variability alter fitness, phenotypic selection and evolution in natural populations? We combine biophysical, demographic and evolutionary models with recent climate data to address this question for the subalpine and alpine butterfly, Colias meadii, in the southern Rocky Mountains. We focus on predicting patterns of selection and evolution for a key thermoregulatory trait, melanin (solar absorptivity) on the posterior ventral hindwings, which affects patterns of body temperature, flight activity, adult and egg survival, and reproductive success in Colias. Both mean annual summer temperatures and thermal variability within summers have increased during the past 60 years at subalpine and alpine sites. At the subalpine site, predicted directional selection on wing absorptivity has shifted from generally positive (favouring increased wing melanin) to generally negative during the past 60 years, but there is substantial variation among years in the predicted magnitude and direction of selection and the optimal absorptivity. The predicted magnitude of directional selection at the alpine site declined during the past 60 years and varies substantially among years, but selection has generally been positive at this site. Predicted evolutionary responses to mean climate warming at the subalpine site since 1980 is small, because of the variability in selection and asymmetry of the fitness function. At both sites, the predicted effects of adaptive evolution on mean population fitness are much smaller than the fluctuations in mean fitness due to climate variability among years. Our analyses suggest that variation in climate within and among years may strongly limit evolutionary responses of ectotherms to mean climate warming in these habitats.     

Bootstrapping of gene-expression data improves and controls the false discovery rate of differentially expressed genes

The ordinary-, penalized-, and bootstrap t-test, least squares and best linear unbiased prediction were compared for their false discovery rates (FDR), i.e. the fraction of falsely discovered genes, which was empirically estimated in a duplicate of the data set. The bootstrap-t-test yielded up to 80% lower FDRs than the alternative statistics, and its FDR was always as good as or better than any of the alternatives. Generally, the predicted FDR from the bootstrapped P-values agreed well with their empirical estimates, except when the number of mRNA samples is smaller than 16. In a cancer data set, the bootstrap-t-test discovered 200 differentially regulated genes at a FDR of 2.6%, and in a knock-out gene expression experiment 10 genes were discovered at a FDR of 3.2%. It is argued that, in the case of microarray data, control of the FDR takes sufficient account of the multiple testing, whilst being less stringent than Bonferoni-type multiple testing corrections. Extensions of the bootstrap simulations to more complicated test-statistics are discussed.     

Investigating the causes and consequences of symbiont shuffling in a multi-partner reef coral symbiosis under environmental change

Dynamic symbioses may critically mediate impacts of climate change on diverse organisms, with repercussions for ecosystem persistence in some cases. On coral reefs, increases in heat-tolerant symbionts after thermal bleaching can reduce coral susceptibility to future stress. However, the relevance of this adaptive response is equivocal owing to conflicting reports of symbiont stability and change. We help reconcile this conflict by showing that change in symbiont community composition (symbiont shuffling) in Orbicella faveolata depends on the disturbance severity and recovery environment. The proportion of heat-tolerant symbionts dramatically increased following severe experimental bleaching, especially in a warmer recovery environment, but tended to decrease if bleaching was less severe. These patterns can be explained by variation in symbiont performance in the changing microenvironments created by differentially bleached host tissues. Furthermore, higher proportions of heat-tolerant symbionts linearly increased bleaching resistance but reduced photochemical efficiency, suggesting that any change in community structure oppositely impacts performance and stress tolerance. Therefore, even minor symbiont shuffling can adaptively benefit corals, although fitness effects of resulting trade-offs are difficult to predict. This work helps elucidate causes and consequences of dynamism in symbiosis, which is critical to predicting responses of multi-partner symbioses such as O. faveolata to environmental change.     

A genetic component of resistance to fungal infection in frog embryos

The embryo has traditionally been considered to completely rely upon parental strategies to prevent threats to survival posed by predators and pathogens, such as fungi. However, recent evidence suggests that embryos may have hitherto neglected abilities to counter pathogens. Using artificial fertilization, we show that among-family variation in the number of Saprolegnia-infected eggs and embryos in the moor frog, Rana arvalis, cannot be explained by maternal effects. However, analysed as a within-females effect, sire identity had an effect on the degree of infection. Furthermore, relatively more eggs and embryos were infected when eggs were fertilized by sperm from the same, compared with a different, population. These effects were independent of variation in fertilization success. Thus, there is likely to be a significant genetic component in embryonic resistance to fungal infection in frog embryos. Early developmental stages may show more diverse defences against pathogens than has previously been acknowledged.     

Host plant and population determine the fitness costs of resistance to Bacillus thuringiensis

Novel adaptations often cause pleiotropic reductions in fitness. Under optimal conditions individual organisms may be able to compensate for, or reduce, these fitness costs. Declining environmental quality may therefore lead to larger costs. We investigated whether reduced plant quality would increase the fitness costs associated with resistance to Bacillus thuringiensis in two populations of the diamondback moth Plutella xylostella. We also measured the rate of decline in resistance on two host-plant (Brassica) species for one insect population (Karak). Population X plant species interactions determined the fitness costs in this study. Poor plant quality increased the fitness costs in terms of development time for both populations. However, fitness costs seen in larval survival did not always increase as plant quality declined. Both the fitness and the stability experiment indicated that fitness costs were higher on the most suitable plant for one population. Theoretically, if the fitness cost of a mutation interacts additively with environmental factors, the relative fitness of resistant insects will decrease with environmental quality. However, multiplicative costs do not necessarily increase with declining quality and may be harder to detect when fitness parameters are more subject to variation in poorer environments.     

Functional response of the small multidrug resistance protein EmrE to mutations in transmembrane helix 2

Escherichia coli EmrE is a small multidrug resistance protein encompassing four transmembrane (TM) sequences that oligomerizes to confer resistance to antimicrobials. Here we examined the effects on in vivo protein accumulation and ethidium resistance activity of single residue substitutions at conserved and variable positions in EmrE transmembrane segment 2 (TM2). We found that activity was reduced when conserved residues localized to one TM2 surface were replaced. Our findings suggest that conserved TM2 positions tolerate greater residue diversity than conserved sites in other EmrE TM sequences, potentially reflecting a source of substrate polyspecificity.     

The adaptive significance of ontogenetic colour change in a tropical python

Ontogenetic colour change is typically associated with changes in size, vulnerability or habitat, but assessment of its functional significance requires quantification of the colour signals from the receivers' perspective. The tropical python, Morelia viridis, is an ideal species to establish the functional significance of ontogenetic colour change. Neonates hatch either yellow or red and both the morphs change to green with age. Here, we show that colour change from red or yellow to green provides camouflage from visually oriented avian predators in the different habitats used by juveniles and adults. This reflects changes in foraging behaviour and vulnerability as individuals mature and provides a rare demonstration of the adaptive value of ontogenetic colour change.     

Genetic architecture of resistance to Septoria tritici blotch in European wheat

Background

Septoria tritici blotch is an important leaf disease of European winter wheat. In our survey, we analyzed Septoria tritici blotch resistance in field trials with a large population of 1,055 elite hybrids and their 87 parental lines. Entries were fingerprinted with the 9 k SNP array. The accuracy of prediction of Septoria tritici blotch resistance achieved with different genome-wide mapping approaches was evaluated based on robust cross validation scenarios.

Results

Septoria tritici blotch disease severities were normally distributed, with genotypic variation being significantly (P < 0.01) larger than zero. The cross validation study revealed an absence of large effect QTL for additive and dominance effects. Application of genomic selection approaches particularly designed to tackle complex agronomic traits allowed to double the accuracy of prediction of Septoria tritici blotch resistance compared to calculation methods suited to detect QTL with large effects.

Conclusions

Our study revealed that Septoria tritici blotch resistance in European winter wheat is controlled by multiple loci with small effect size. This suggests that the currently achieved level of resistance in this collection is likely to be durable, as involvement of a high number of genes in a resistance trait reduces the risk of the resistance to be overcome by specific pathogen isolates or races.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1471-2164-14-858) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.