Understanding and Managing the Risks to Health and Environment from Global Atmospheric Change: A Synthesis

The global atmosphere is changing. Anthropogenic activities are increasing the concentrations of greenhouse gases and releasing synthetic compounds that deplete stratospheric ozone and increase UV-B radiation. Changes of temperature in the Northern Hemisphere during the past century strongly suggest that we are now in a period of rapid global warming relative to the past millennium. Increased concentrations of greenhouse gases are absorbing outgoing infrared radiation in the lower atmosphere, warming the troposphere and cooling the lower stratosphere. Research is beginning to indicate that losses of stratospheric ozone and increases of greenhouse gases are interdependent. Increased greenhouse gases have been implicated in the observed strengthening of stratospheric wind vortices around both poles, in turn setting the stage for further depletion of ozone and increases in UV-B radiation. Although the uncertainties are still large enough to make it difficult to assess health and ecological risks, decisions must be made. Research on indicators of risks to human health and the environment can help reduce the uncertainties in these risks and shorten the time between recognizing the risks of atmospheric change and taking concrete mitigative and adaptive actions.     

From Assessment to Policy: Lessons Learned from the U.S. National Assessment

The process of translating scientific information into timely and useful insights that inform policy and resource management decisions, despite the existence of uncertainties, is a difficult and challenging task. Policy-focused assessment is one approach to achieving this end. It is an ongoing process that engages both researchers and end-users to analyze, evaluate and interpret information from multiple disciplines to draw conclusions that are timely and useful for decision makers. This paper discusses key characteristics of a policy-focused assessment process, including (1) ongoing collaboration between the research, assessment, and stakeholder communities; (2) a focus on stakeholder information needs; (3) multidisciplinary approaches; (4) use of scenarios to deal with uncertainties; and (5) evaluation of risk management options. We illustrate the particular challenge to assessors of providing the specific types of insights stakeholders need to effectively influence policy decisions. And we discuss the role that assessment can play in formulating an agenda for future research. Examples from the U.S. National Assessment of “The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change for the United States” are used to illustrate a policy-focused assessment process. For many of the participants, the first U.S. National Assessment was an extraordinary learning experience about how to develop better ways of conducting assessments.     

Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Waterborne Microorganisms: Implications for EU and U.S. Water Policy

Despite advances in water treatment, outbreaks of waterborne diseases still occur in developed regions including the United States and Europe Union (EU). Water quality impairments attributable to elevated concentrations of fecal indicator bacteria, and associated with health risk, are also very common. Research suggests that the impact of such microorganisms on public health may be intensified by the effects of climate change. At present, the major regulatory frameworks in these regions (i.e., the US Clean Water Act [CWA] and the EU Water Framework Directive [WFD]), do not explicitly address risks posed by climate change. This article reviews existing U.S. and EU water quality regulatory legislation for robustness to climate change and suggests watershed modeling approaches to inform additional pollution control measures given the likely impacts on microbial fate and transport. Comprehensive analysis of future climate and water quality scenarios may only be achievable through the use of watershed-scale models. Unless adaptation measures are generated and incorporated into water policy, the potential threat posed to humans from exposure to waterborne pathogens may be amplified. Such adaptation measures will assist in achieving the aims of the EU WFD and US CWA and minimize impacts of climate change on microbial water quality.     

Colonial to modern skeletal change in the U.S.A.

Eighty-two people dating from 1675 to 1879 compared with 182 modern middle-class White and Black skeletons test the myths of radical changes produced by improved diet, less disease, and nineteenth century immigration. Longevity increases and health and growth improvement is clearest in reduced juvenile deaths (census data) and deepening of true pelvis. Stature increase is minimal (though seventeenth century Londoners and modern West Africans are shorter than Colonial to Modern Americans); teeth deteriorate and for cultural reasons fractures increase. Clavicles and forearms elongate. From Old to New World Colonial samples there is a noticeable skull change (and a greater Old World to Modern contrast) but White Colonial to Modern shows strong continuity surprisingly, the key changes being increasing head height, and retraction of face with increasing nose projection, and longer mastoids, resulting from selection and mixture. Blacks change more, possibly from Indian and White mixture. Variabilities are above average. Change is much less than expected, and apparently involves heterosis and selection as well as the obvious health advance and mixtures.     

The U.S.-Led Proliferation Security Initiative and UNCLOS: Legality,Implementation, and an Assessment

This article examines the relationship between the U.S.-led Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) and the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). It attempts to answer the questions of whether the PSI is legal or illegal under UNCLOS and whether U.S. accession to UNCLOS would enhance or create difficulties for the implementation of the PSI. The author concludes that U.S. accession to the Convention would not affect adversely the implementation and effectiveness of the PSI. On the contrary, accession to UNCLOS could help increase U.S. credibility and leadership in dealing with the threat to international peace and security posed by weapons of mass destruction proliferation. It also suggests that all the relevant information needs to be gathered and examined carefully in order to answer the question of whether a PSI interdiction action is legal under UNCLOS or not.     

Climatological correlates of screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) abundance in Texas, U.S.A.

The causes of screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreaks in North America are not well understood, but the literature suggests that climate was historically important. Screwworm case incidence in each of seven climatological divisions of Texas was examined for the years 1962-83, the period when sterile-male releases were made. Weak but statistically significant correlations were found between winter and summer cases and mean winter and summer rainfall and temperature when the independent variables were examined one at a time. Multiple regression of log case incidence on previous quarterly cases and current rainfall and temperatures showed a significant, negative effect of temperature on summer cases. Lagged screwworm cases accounted for most of the variation in quarterly cases. No climatic effects were detected in the other seasons. Rainfall was statistically unrelated to screwworm abundance in any season even in an arid region. The analysis does not support a climatic genesis of screwworm outbreaks or eradication. The sterile-male method is a credible explanation for screwworm disappearance.     

Hosts of Lutzomyia shannoni (Diptera: Psychodidae) in relation to vesicular stomatitis virus on Ossabaw Island, Georgia, U.S.A.

Abstract. Hosts of Lutzomyia shannoni Dyar, a suspected biological vector of the New Jersey serotype of vesicular stomatitis (VSNJ) virus, were determined using an indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) of 333 blood-fed female sandflies collected from their diurnal resting shelters on Ossabaw Island, Georgia, U.S.A. Sandflies had fed primarily on white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) (81%) and to a lesser extent on feral swine ( Sus scrofa ) (16%), two species of host infected annually with VSNJ. Other hosts were raccoons ( Procyon lotor ) and horses ( Equus caballus ) or donkeys ( E. asinus ), with only two (<1%) mixed bloodmeals from deer/raccoon and deer/swine. A larger proportion of feedings on feral swine was detected in maritime live oak forests than in mixed hardwood forests. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that L. shannoni is a primary vector of VSNJ virus on Ossabaw Island.