Current use of the EPA uncertainty factor approach in New Jersey standards and risk assessment

The derivation of the uncertainty factors used in the construction of reference doses for 61 chemicals of regulatory concern to the state of New Jersey were evaluated. Frequency of use of uncertainty factor variables was enumerated with the aim of providing a guide to existing methodology in the analysis of critical studies by the United States Environmental Protection Agency.     

Noncancer Risk Assessment: A Probabilistic Alternative to Current Practice

Based on imperfect data and theory, agencies such as the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) currently derive “reference doses” (RfDs) to guide risk managers charged with ensuring that human exposures to chemicals are below population thresholds. The RfD for a chemical is typically reported as a single number, even though it is widely acknowledged that there are significant uncertainties inherent in the derivation of this number.

In this article, the authors propose a probabilistic alternative to the EPA's method that expresses the human population threshold as a probability distribution of values (rather than a single RfD value), taking into account the major sources of scientific uncertainty in such estimates. The approach is illustrated using much of the same data that USEPA uses to justify their current RfD procedure.

Like the EPA's approach, our approach recognizes the four key extrapolations that are necessary to define the human population threshold based on animal data: animal to human, human heterogeneity, LOAEL to NOAEL, and subchronic to chronic. Rather than using available data to define point estimates of “uncertainty factors” for these extrapolations, the proposed approach uses available data to define a probability distribution of adjustment factors. These initial characterizations of uncertainty can then be refined when more robust or specific data become available for a particular chemical or class of chemicals.

Quantitative characterization of uncertainty in noncancer risk assessment will be useful to risk managers who face complex trade-offs between control costs and protection of public health. The new approach can help decision-makers understand how much extra control cost must be expended to achieve a specified increase in confidence that the human population threshold is not being exceeded.     

Nickel Carcinogenicity in Relation to the Health Risks from Residual Oil Fly Ash

Epidemiological studies of workers in the nickel industry, animal exposure studies, and reports on the potential mechanisms of nickel-induced toxicity and carcinogenicity indicate that only crystalline sulfidic nickel compounds have been clearly established as carcinogenic or potentially carcinogenic in humans. This observation indicates the need to modify and update regulatory approaches for nickel to reflect noncancer toxicity values for some individual nickel species. Analysis of nickel compounds in residual oil fly ash (ROFA) indicates that sulfidic nickel compounds (e.g., nickel subsulfide, nickel sulfide) are not present. Thus, the potential for emission of carcinogenic nickel compounds from residual oil fly ash appears to be low. Preliminary reference concentrations (RfCs) for a number of nickel compounds, based on non-carcinogenic endpoints, are proposed on the basis of the benchmark dose approach in conjunction with NTP data for nickel species.     

Differential Sensitivity of Children and Adults to Chemical Toxicity

Children, particularly neonates, can be biologically more sensitive to the same toxicant on a body weight basis than adults. Current understanding of the rates of maturation of metabolism and evidence from case studies indicate that human infants up to 6 months of age typically lack the capacity to detoxify and eliminate substances as readily as adults. For most chemicals, the infant physiologic systems usually produce higher blood levels for longer periods. The newborn's metabolic capacity rapidly matures and, by 6 months of age, children are usually not more sensitive than adults based on their pharmacokinetic competence. Whether children are at greater risk from chemical exposures is another question. Drawing conclusions about the ability of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's intraspecies (UF_H) and database (UF_D) uncertainty factors to protect children on the basis of the modest data available is challenging. However, virtually all studies available suggest that a high percentage of the population, including children, is protected by using a 10-fold UF_H or by using a 3.16-fold factor each for toxicokinetic and toxicodynamic variability. Based on specific comparisons for newborns, infants, children, adults and those with severe disease, the population protected is between 60% and 100%, with the studies in larger populations that include sensitive individuals suggesting that the value is closer to 100%. UF_D is likewise protective when used with databases that are missing substantive studies.     

Categorical Default Uncertainty Factors-Interspecies Variation and Adequacy of Database

The potential application of categorical (i.e., species, pathway, or group specific) defaults for several components of uncertainty relevant to development of tolerable or reference concentrations/doses is considered-namely, interspecies variation and adequacy of database. For the former, the adequacy of allometric scaling by body surface area as a species-specific default for oral tolerable or reference doses is considered. For the latter, the extent to which data from analyses of subchronic:chronic effect levels, LOAELs/NOAELs, and critical effect levels for complete versus incomplete datasets informs selection of defaults is examined. The relative role of categorical defaults for these aspects is considered in the context of the continuum of increasingly data-informed approaches to characterization of uncertainty and variability that range from default (“presumed protective”) to “biologically based predictive”.     

Subdivision of Uncertainty Factors to Allow for Toxicokinetics and Toxicodynamics

Tenfold uncertainty factors have been used in risk assessment for about 40 years to allow for species differences and inter-individual variability. Each factor has to allow for toxicokinetic and toxicodynamic differences. Subdividing the 10-fold factors into kinetic and dynamic defaults, which when multiplied give a product of 10, offers a number of advantages. A major advantage is that chemical-specific data can be introduced to replace one or more of the default subfactors, hence contributing to a chemical-related overall factor. Subdivision of the 10-fold factors also facilitates analysis of the appropriateness of the overall 10-fold defaults, and the development of a more refined approach to the use of uncertainty factors.     

Determining “safe” levels of exposure: The validity of the use of 10X safety factors

The current guideline for risk assessment of chemicals having a toxic end point routinely uses the reference dose (RfD) approach based on uncertainty factors of 10. With this method the quality of individual risk assessment varies among chemicals, often resulting in either an over‐ or under‐estimation of adverse health risk. The purpose of this investigation is to evaluate whether the magnitude of the 10X uncertainty factors have scientific merit against data from published experimental studies. A compilation and comparison of ratios between LOAEL/NOAEL (Lowest Observed Adverse Effect Level/No Observed Adverse Effect Level), subchronic/chronic, and animal/human values were made. The results of the present investigation revealed that the use of default factors could be over‐conservative or unprotective. More reasonable estimates of the risk to human health would result in a reduction of unnecessary, and expensive over‐regulation. In addition to the LOAEL to NOAEL, and subchronic to chronic ratios, the adequacy of uncertainty factors for animal to human extrapolations were examined. Although a 10‐fold uncertainty factor (UF) is most commonly used in the risk assessment process, an examination of the literature for the compounds presented here suggests that the use of different values is scientifically justifiable.     

Exposure of aboriginals in British Columbia to methylmercury in freshwater fish: A comparison to reference doses and estimated thresholds

We have analyzed the methylmercury exposures of native women consuming fish from a reservoir and two lakes in British Columbia. Probability density functions representing methylmercury dose were generated using reasonable distributions for exposure parameters. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the impact of alternative parameter values on the exposure estimates. The effect of ignoring variability and uncertainty in exposure was also assessed. Calculated mean daily doses of methylmercury for the target populations were compared to the estimated average dose for the general population. We also determined the percentages of the native women populations with exposures exceeding current guidance values as well as published thresholds for neurological effects. The analysis demonstrates the importance of better characterizing the low dose effects of methylmercury, as the predicted doses fall in the range of recommended maximum daily doses but well below the higher estimates of the effect threshold.     

Application of Uncertainty Factors in the Priority Substances Program and International Harmonization

The Canadian Environmental Protection Act (CEPA) authorizes the Ministers of the Environment and of Health in Canada to investigate a wide variety of substances that may contaminate the environment and cause adverse effects on the environment and/or on human health. Under the Act, assessments have been completed for 44 environmental contaminants on the first Priority Substances List (PSL) and are relatively advanced for 25 compounds on the second PSL. The principles developed for the application of uncertainty factors in assessment of risks to human health for Priority Substances under CEPA are outlined, with emphasis on those aspects which are somewhat unique and/or evolving. The interface of developments in the Priority Substances program with an initiative of the International Programme on Chemical Safety in this area to effect greater harmonization of approaches is also described.     

Inhibition of analgesia by C-terminal deletion analogs of human beta-endorphin

Human beta-endorphin (beta h-EP) analogs of variable chain lengths have been investigated for their potency in inhibiting analgesia induced by beta h-EP or by the potent opiate etorphine. It was found that beta h-EP-(1-28) inhibits the analgesic effect of beta h-EP and etorphine when co-injected intracerebroventricularly into mice. Antagonism by competition at same opioid receptor subtypes is suggested from parallel shifts of the dose-response curve of etorphine or beta h-EP in the presence of increasing doses of beta h-EP-(1-28). On a molar basis, beta h-EP-(1-28) is nearly 10 times more potent than naloxone. The reduction of the chain length from residues 1-28 to 1-27 lowered the antagonist potency while further reduction of the peptide chain led to a complete loss of inhibitory activity. From comparison of the opioid-receptor binding affinity, analgesic activity and antagonist potency, it is concluded that the C-terminus of beta-EP is critical to the biological efficacy of the molecule and that the antagonist activity of C-terminal deletion analogs is probably mediated through residues 27 and 28.     

Accounting for Missing Data in Noncancer Risk Assessment

Noncancer risk assessments are generally forced to rely on animal bioassay data to estimate a Tolerable Daily Intake or Reference Dose, as a proxy for the threshold of human response. In cases where animal bioassays are missing from a complete data base, the critical NOAEL (no-observed-adverse-effect level) needs to be adjusted to account for the impact of the missing bioassay(s). This paper presents two approaches for making such adjustments. One is based on regression analysis and seeks to provide a point estimate of the adjustment needed. The other relies on non-parametric analysis and is intended to provide a distributional estimate of the needed adjustment. The adjustment needed is dependent on the definition of a complete data base, the number of bioassays missing, the specific bioassays which are missing, and the method used for interspecies scaling. The results from either approach can be used in conjunction with current practices for computing the TDI or RfD, or as an element of distributional approaches for estimating the human population threshold.