Problems with using large‐scale oceanic climate indices to compare climatic sensitivities across populations and species

To understand which populations and species are most sensitive to climate change, studies correlate time series of climate variables with those of traits important for population dynamics, and subsequently compare which aspects of a species’ ecology or life‐history best explain variation in climate sensitivity. Often large‐scale oceanic climate indices (LOCIs) are used as a proxy for local climatic drivers, with many studies reporting geographic gradients in climate sensitivity to LOCIs (e.g. suggesting that species living further from the equator are relatively climate sensitive). However, the relationship between LOCIs and local weather variables also varies geographically, raising the possibility that apparent intra‐ and inter‐specific differences in climate sensitivity to LOCIs could also reflect geographic variation in how well LOCIs function as a proxy for local climatic drivers. This hypothesis is rarely tested due to lack of knowledge about the specific local climatic drivers. Here we show, using reproductive and climate data from 16 long‐term population studies of 7 Australian fairy‐wren species (Malurus genus), that the use of LOCIs can result in 1) strong overestimation of the amount of inter‐specific variation in climate sensitivity and 2) spurious patterns, particularly geographic gradients. Consequently a paradox emerges: LOCIs often explain much of the temporal variation in traits important for population dynamics, but the common usage of LOCIs may prevent meaningful intra‐ and inter‐specific comparisons of climate sensitivities over large spatial scales. Our results thus may offer an alternative interpretation of the widely reported geographic gradients in sensitivity to LOCIs. Future progress will likely require better knowledge about the identity and temporal features of local environmental drivers of population dynamics.     

Climate‐niche factor analysis: a spatial approach to quantifying species vulnerability to climate change

Climate change vulnerability assessments are an important tool for understanding the threat that climate change poses to species and populations, but do not generally yield insight into the spatial variation in vulnerability throughout a species’ habitat. We demonstrate how to adapt the method of ecological‐niche factor analysis (ENFA) to objectively quantify aspects of species sensitivity to climate change. We then expand ENFA to quantify aspects of exposure and vulnerability to climate change as well, using future projections of global climate models. This approach provides spatially‐explicit insight into geographic patterns of vulnerability, relies only on readily‐available spatial data, is suitable for a wide range of species and habitats, and invites comparison between different species. We apply our methods to a case study of two species of montane mammals, the American pika Ochotona princeps and the yellow‐bellied marmot Marmota flaviventris.     

Cooperative breeding in birds: the role of ecology

Theory predicts that cooperative breeding should only occurin species in which certain individuals are constrained frombreeding independently by some peculiarity of the species' ecology.Here, we use comparative methods to examine the role of variationin ecology in explaining differences between taxa in the frequencyof cooperative breeding. We address three questions. First,does the frequency of cooperative breeding vary at just one phylogeneticlevel, or across several levels? Second, are differences inthe frequency of cooperative breeding among closely-relatedspecies correlated with ecology? Last, are ecological differencesbetween ancient lineages important in predisposing certain lineagesto cooperative breeding? We find that variation in the frequencyof cooperative breeding occurs across all phylogenetic levels,with 40% among families and 60% within families. Also, variationin the frequency of cooperative breeding between closely related speciesis associated with ecological differences. However, differencesin the frequency of cooperative breeding among more ancientlineages are not correlated with differences in ecology. Together,our results suggest that cooperative breeding is not due toany single factor, but is a two step-process: life-history predispositionand ecological facilitation. Low annual mortality predisposescertain lineages to cooperative breeding. Subsequently, changesin ecology facilitate the evolution of cooperative breedingwithin these predisposed lineages. The key ecological changesappear to be sedentariness and living in a relatively invariableand warm climate. Thus, although ecological variation is notthe most important factor in predisposing lineages to cooperativebreeding, it is important in determining exactly which speciesor populations in a predisposed lineage will adopt cooperativebreeding.     

Impact of temperature on the breeding performance and selection patterns in lesser kestrels Falco naumanni

Adjusting breeding phenology to climate fluctuations can be problematic for migratory birds as they have to account for local environmental conditions on the breeding grounds while migrating from remote wintering areas. Predicting general responses to climate change is not straightforward, because these responses vary between migrant species due to the species‐specific ecological drivers of breeding behaviour. Therefore more information is needed on species with different ecological requirements, including data on heritability of migration, factors driving phenological changes and how climate affects selection pressures. Here, we measure heritability in settlement dates and the effect of local climate at the breeding grounds on settlement dates, reproductive success and selection patterns in a French population of a trans‐Saharan migratory insectivorous raptor, the lesser kestrel Falco naumanni, monitored and ringed since 1996. Heritability of settlement dates was low (0.07 ± 0.03), indicating a weak evolutionary potential. Nevertheless, plasticity in settlement dates in response to temperatures allowed earlier settlement when early spring was warmer than average. Reproductive success and selection patterns were strongly affected by temperature during settlement and chick rearing respectively. Warmer spring decreased selection for earlier settling and warmer early summer increased reproductive success. Interestingly, selection for earlier settling was more intense in cooler springs, contrasting with patterns from passerines lagging behind food peaks. Altogether, these results suggest a positive effect of warmer temperatures on breeding performances of lesser kestrels most likely because the French population is at the coolest boundary of the species European breeding range.     

COOPERATIVE BREEDING FAVORS MATERNAL INVESTMENT IN SIZE OVER NUMBER OF EGGS IN SPIDERS

The transition to cooperative breeding may alter maternal investment strategies depending on density of breeders, extent of reproductive skew, and allo‐maternal care. Change in optimal investment from solitary to cooperative breeding can be investigated by comparing social species with nonsocial congeners. We tested two hypotheses in a mainly semelparous system: that social, cooperative breeders, compared to subsocial, solitarily breeding congeners, (1) lay fewer and larger eggs because larger offspring compete better for limited resources and become reproducers; (2) induce egg size variation within clutches as a bet‐hedging strategy to ensure that some offspring become reproducers. Within two spider genera, Anelosimus and Stegodyphus, we compared species from similar habitats and augmented the results with a mini‐meta‐analysis of egg numbers depicted in phylogenies. We found that social species indeed laid fewer, larger eggs than subsocials, while egg size variation was low overall, giving no support for bet‐hedging. We propose that the transition to cooperative breeding selects for producing few, large offspring because reproductive skew and high density of breeders and young create competition for resources and reproduction. Convergent evolution has shaped maternal strategies similarly in phylogenetically distant species and directed cooperatively breeding spiders to invest in quality rather than quantity of offspring.     

An empirical test of the relative and combined effects of land‐cover and climate change on local colonization and extinction

Land‐cover and climate change are two main drivers of changes in species ranges. Yet, the majority of studies investigating the impacts of global change on biodiversity focus on one global change driver and usually use simulations to project biodiversity responses to future conditions. We conduct an empirical test of the relative and combined effects of land‐cover and climate change on species occurrence changes. Specifically, we examine whether observed local colonization and extinctions of North American birds between 1981–1985 and 2001–2005 are correlated with land‐cover and climate change and whether bird life history and ecological traits explain interspecific variation in observed occurrence changes. We fit logistic regression models to test the impact of physical land‐cover change, changes in net primary productivity, winter precipitation, mean summer temperature, and mean winter temperature on the probability of Ontario breeding bird local colonization and extinction. Models with climate change, land‐cover change, and the combination of these two drivers were the top ranked models of local colonization for 30%, 27%, and 29% of species, respectively. Conversely, models with climate change, land‐cover change, and the combination of these two drivers were the top ranked models of local extinction for 61%, 7%, and 9% of species, respectively. The quantitative impacts of land‐cover and climate change variables also vary among bird species. We then fit linear regression models to test whether the variation in regional colonization and extinction rate could be explained by mean body mass, migratory strategy, and habitat preference of birds. Overall, species traits were weakly correlated with heterogeneity in species occurrence changes. We provide empirical evidence showing that land‐cover change, climate change, and the combination of multiple global change drivers can differentially explain observed species local colonization and extinction.     

Extra‐pair paternity in birds

Since the first molecular study providing evidence for mating outside the pair bond in birds over 30 years ago, >500 studies have reported rates of extra‐pair paternity (EPP) in >300 bird species. Here, we give a detailed overview of the current literature reporting EPP in birds and highlight the sampling biases and patterns in the data set with respect to taxonomy, avian phylogeny and global regions, knowledge of which will be crucial for correct interpretation of results in future comparative studies. Subsequently, we use this comprehensive dataset to simultaneously test the role of several ecological and life history variables. We do not find clear evidence that variation in EPP across socially monogamous species can be explained by latitude, density (coloniality), migration, generation length, genetic structuring (dispersal distance), or climatic variability, after accounting for phylogeny. These results contrast previous studies, most likely due to the large heterogeneity within species in both EPP and the predictor of interest, indicating that using species averages might be unreliable. Despite the absence of broadscale ecological drivers in explaining interspecific variation in EPP, we suggest that certain behaviours and ecological variables might facilitate or constrain EPP, as indicated by our finding that EPP was negatively associated with latitude within noncolonial species, suggesting a role of breeding synchrony. Thus, rather than focussing on general explanations for variation in EPP across all species, a future focus should be on how various aspects of ecology or life history might have driven variation in EPP among groups of species or populations of the same species. Hence, we argue that variation in EPP can be partly explained when taking the right perspective. This comprehensive overview, and particularly the dataset provided herein will create a foundation for further studies.     

Integrated modeling predicts shifts in waterbird population dynamics under climate change

Climate change has been identified as one of the most important drivers of wildlife population dynamics. The in‐depth knowledge of the complex relationships between climate and population sizes through density dependent demographic processes is important for understanding and predicting population shifts under climate change, which requires integrated population models (IPMs) that unify the analyses of demography and abundance data. In this study we developed an IPM based on Gaussian approximation to dynamic N‐mixture models for large scale population data. We then analyzed four decades (1972–2013) of mallard Anas platyrhynchos breeding population survey, band‐recovery and climate data covering a large spatial extent from North American prairies through boreal habitat to Alaska. We aimed to test the hypothesis that climate change will cause shifts in population dynamics if climatic effects on demographic parameters that have substantial contribution to population growth vary spatially. More specifically, we examined the spatial variation of climatic effects on density dependent population demography, identified the key demographic parameters that are influential to population growth, and forecasted population responses to climate change. Our results revealed that recruitment, which explained more variance of population growth than survival, was sensitive to the temporal variation of precipitation in the southern portion of the study area but not in the north. Survival, by contrast, was insensitive to climatic variation. We then forecasted a decrease in mallard breeding population density in the south and an increase in the northwestern portion of the study area, indicating potential shifts in population dynamics under future climate change. Our results implied that different strategies need to be considered across regions to conserve waterfowl populations in the face of climate change. Our modelling approach can be adapted for other species and thus has wide application to understanding and predicting population dynamics in the presence of global change.     

Solar radiation and ENSO predict fruiting phenology patterns in a 15‐year record from Kibale National Park,Uganda

Fruiting, flowering, and leaf set patterns influence many aspects of tropical forest communities, but there are few long‐term studies examining potential drivers of these patterns, particularly in Africa. We evaluated a 15‐year dataset of tree phenology in Kibale National Park, Uganda, to identify abiotic predictors of fruit phenological patterns and discuss our findings in light of climate change. We quantified fruiting for 326 trees from 43 species and evaluated these patterns in relation to solar radiance, rainfall, and monthly temperature. We used time‐lagged variables based on seasonality in linear regression models to assess the effect of abiotic variables on the proportion of fruiting trees. Annual fruiting varied over 3.8‐fold, and inter‐annual variation in fruiting is associated with the extent of fruiting in the peak period, not variation in time of fruit set. While temperature and rainfall showed positive effects on fruiting, solar radiance in the two‐year period encompassing a given year and the previous year was the strongest predictor of fruiting. As solar irradiance was the strongest predictor of fruiting, the projected increase in rainfall associated with climate change, and coincident increase in cloud cover suggest that climate change will lead to a decrease in fruiting. ENSO in the prior 24‐month period was also significantly associated with annual ripe fruit production, and ENSO is also affected by climate change. Predicting changes in phenology demands understanding inter‐annual variation in fruit dynamics in light of potential abiotic drivers, patterns that will only emerge with long‐term data.     

Climate drivers of bark beetle outbreak dynamics in Norway spruce forests

Bark beetles are among the most devastating biotic agents affecting forests globally and several species are expected to be favored by climate change. Given the potential interactions of insect outbreaks with other biotic and abiotic disturbances, and the potentially strong impact of changing disturbance regimes on forest resources, investigating climatic drivers of destructive bark beetle outbreaks is of paramount importance. We analyzed 17 time‐series of the amount of wood damaged by Ips typographus, the most destructive pest of Norway spruce forests, collected across 8 European countries in the last three decades. We aimed to quantify the relative importance of key climate drivers in explaining timber loss dynamics, also testing for possible synergistic effects. Local outbreaks shared the same drivers, including increasing summer rainfall deficit and warm temperatures. Large availability of storm‐felled trees in the previous year was also strongly related to an increase in timber loss, likely by providing an alternative source of breeding material. We did not find any positive synergy among outbreak drivers. On the contrary, the occurrence of large storms reduced the positive effect of warming temperatures and rainfall deficit. The large surplus of breeding material likely boosted I. typographus population size above the density threshold required to colonize and kill healthy trees irrespective of other climate triggers. Importantly, we found strong negative density dependence in I. typographus that may provide a mechanism for population decline after population eruptions. Generality in the effects of complex climatic events across different geographical areas suggests that the large‐scale drivers can be used as early warning indicators of increasing local outbreak probability.     

Feather melanin and microstructure variation in dark‐eyed junco Junco hyemalis across an elevational gradient in the Selkirk Mountains

Variation in feather melanism and microstructure can arise through sexual selection and ecological functional drivers. Melanin‐based plumage traits are associated with sexual dichromatism and the intensity of sexual selection in many avian species, but also have several ecological benefits such as protection against ultra‐violet (UV) radiation, camouflage, and feather strength. Additionally, feather microstructure influences thermoregulation. Plumage variation across species is well documented; however, the relative role of sexual selection and ecological drivers in intra‐specific and within‐population variation is less established. We investigated UV reflectance, melanism, and feather microstructure in a population of Oregon dark‐eyed juncos Junco hyemalis oreganus between high (1900–2200 m a.s.l.) and low (450–800 m a.s.l.) elevations in the Selkirk Mountains to evaluate potential sexual selection and ecological drivers of variation. We found no difference in UV reflectance or lightness (melanism) of head feathers between elevations, but individuals at high elevation had lighter (less melanism) and less brown (less pheomelanin) body contour feathers than at low elevations. High elevation individuals also had longer contour feathers with more pronounced plumulaceous regions. Sexual dichromatism did not vary between elevations, leading us to reject sexual selection in favour of ecological functional drivers of plumage variation in this system. To our knowledge, this is the first study to identify within‐population differences in feather melanism and microstructure between different elevations.     

Towards a unified theory of cooperative breeding: the role of ecology and life history re-examined

We present quantitative models that unify several adaptive hypotheses for the evolution of cooperative breeding in a single framework: the ecological constraints hypothesis, the life-history hypothesis and the benefits-of-philopatry hypothesis. Our goal is to explain interspecific variation in the occurrence of cooperative breeding in terms of interspecific variation in life-history traits and ecological conditions. We analyse two models, according to whether or not helpers can inherit their parents' territory. Major results are (i) territory inheritance always promotes cooperative breeding; (ii) if territories are not inherited, neither ecological constraints nor variation in life-history traits predict interspecific variation in cooperative breeding; and (iii) if territories are inherited, the mechanism of density regulation is crucial in determining which factors promote cooperative breeding. If density dependence acts on the probability to obtain a free territory or on the survival of dispersers, variation in ecological constraints cannot explain variation in cooperative breeding. Lower adult mortality favours helping, not because it reduces the availability of free territories, but because it enhances the direct benefits of helpers. If density dependence acts on fecundity, lower probability of obtaining a free territory and lower survival of dispersers promote cooperative breeding. In this case, lower adult mortality works against the evolution of helping. We suggest that the difference between birds and social insects in the covariance between cooperative breeding and life-history traits is due to different mechanisms of density regulation that operate in these taxa, and we explain how natural selection on habitat choice might have caused these different mechanisms to operate.     

Unraveling the dispersal patterns and the social drivers of natal emigration of a cooperative breeding mammal,the golden lion tamarin

The study of the social drivers of animal dispersal is key to understanding the evolution of social systems. Among the social drivers of natal emigration, the conspecific attraction, aggressive eviction, and reduced social integration hypotheses predict that sexually mature individuals who receive more aggressive behavior and are engaged in less affiliative interactions are more likely to disperse. Few reports have explored these proximate factors affecting emigration in cooperatively breeding species, particularly of Neotropical primates. In this study, we investigated the dispersal patterns and tested the social drivers of natal emigration in the golden lion tamarin (Leontopithecus rosalia) — an endangered species inhabiting Atlantic rainforests fragments in Brazil. We used behavioral and demographic data collected during 7 years from 68 groups of tamarins inhabiting 20 forest fragments. Our analyses from the 160 dispersing individuals showed that dispersal success is higher for males and for those engaged in parallel dispersal, but that males and females use different strategies to enhance their dispersal success, males immigrate into established groups while females form new groups. We did not find high levels of agonistic behavior among group members before natal emigration. Instead we found that conspecific attraction drives natal emigration in both sexes, while additionally the low level of affiliative interactions within the natal group triggers male emigration. We discuss natal emigration in the broader perspective of the cooperative breeding system and the implications of these findings for the conservation of the species.     

When to start and when to stop: Effects of climate on breeding in a multi‐brooded songbird

Climate warming has been shown to affect the timing of the onset of breeding of many bird species across the world. However, for multi‐brooded species, climate may also affect the timing of the end of the breeding season, and hence also its duration, and these effects may have consequences for fitness. We used 28 years of field data to investigate the links between climate, timing of breeding, and breeding success in a cooperatively breeding passerine, the superb fairy‐wren (Malurus cyaneus). This multi‐brooded species from southeastern Australia has a long breeding season and high variation in phenology between individuals. By applying a “sliding window” approach, we found that higher minimum temperatures in early spring resulted in an earlier start and a longer duration of breeding, whereas less rainfall and more heatwaves (days > 29°C) in late summer resulted in an earlier end and a shorter duration of breeding. Using a hurdle model analysis, we found that earlier start dates did not predict whether or not females produced any young in a season. However, for successful females who produced at least one young, earlier start dates were associated with higher numbers of young produced in a season. Earlier end dates were associated with a higher probability of producing at least one young, presumably because unsuccessful females kept trying when others had ceased. Despite larger scale trends in climate, climate variables in the windows relevant to this species’ phenology did not change across years, and there were no temporal trends in phenology during our study period. Our results illustrate a scenario in which higher temperatures advanced both start and end dates of individuals’ breeding seasons, but did not generate an overall temporal shift in breeding times. They also suggest that the complexity of selection pressures on breeding phenology in multi‐brooded species may have been underestimated.     

Novel spatial analysis methods reveal scale‐dependent spread and infer limiting factors of invasion by Sahara mustard

Multiple scale‐dependent ecological processes influence species distributions. Uncovering these drivers of dynamic range boundaries can provide fundamental ecological insights and vital knowledge for species management. We develop a transferable methodology that uses widely available data and tools to determine critical scales in range expansion and to infer dominating scale‐dependent forces that influence spread. We divide a focal geographic region into different sized square cells, representing different spatial scales. We then used herbarium records to determine the species' occupancy of cells at each spatial scale. We calculated the growth in cell occupancy across scales to infer the scale dependent expansion rate. This is the first time such a ‘box‐counting’ method is used to study range expansion. We coupled this multi‐scale analysis with species distribution models to determine the range and spatial scales where suitable climate allows the species to spread, and where other factors may be influencing the expansion. We demonstrate our methodology by assessing the spread of invasive Sahara mustard in North America. We detect critical scales where its spread is limited (100–500 km) or unconstrained (5–50 km) by climatic variables. Using climate‐based models to assess the similarity of climate envelopes in its native and invaded range, we find that the climate in the invaded range generally predicts the native distribution, suggesting that either there has been little local adaptation to climate occurring since introduction or the biological interaction experienced in the invaded range has not driven the species to occupy climatic conditions much different from its native range. Our novel method can be broadly utilized in other studies to generate critical insights into the scale dependency of different ecological drivers that influence the spread and distribution limits, as well as to help parameterizing predictions of future spread, and thus inform management decisions.     

Ecological generalism facilitates the evolution of sociality in snapping shrimps

Evidence from insects and vertebrates suggests that cooperation may have enabled species to expand their niches, becoming ecological generalists and dominating the ecosystems in which they occur. Consistent with this idea, eusocial species of sponge‐dwelling Synalpheus shrimps from Belize are ecological generalists with a broader host breadth and higher abundance than non‐eusocial species. We evaluate whether sociality promotes ecological generalism (social conquest hypothesis) or whether ecological generalism facilitates the transition to sociality (social transition hypothesis) in 38 Synalpheus shrimp species. We find that sociality evolves primarily from host generalists, and almost exclusively so for transitions to eusociality. Additionally, sponge volume is more important for explaining social transitions towards communal breeding than to eusociality, suggesting that different ecological factors may influence the independent evolutionary origins of sociality in Synalpheus shrimps. Ultimately, our results are consistent with the social transition hypothesis and the idea that ecological generalism facilitates the transition to sociality.     

Species richness, area and climate correlates

Aim Species richness–area theory predicts that more species should be found if one samples a larger area. To avoid biases from comparing species richness in areas of very different sizes, area is often controlled by counting the numbers of co‐occupying species in near‐equal area grid cells. The assumption is that variation in grid cell size accrued from working in a three‐dimensional world is negligible. Here we provide a first test of this idea. We measure the surface area of c. 50 × 50 km and c. 220 × 220 km grid cells across western Europe. We then ask how variation in the area of grid cells affects: (1) the selection of climate variables entering a species richness model; and (2) the accuracy of models in predicting species richness in unsampled grid cells. Location Western Europe. Methods Models are developed for European plant, breeding bird, mammal and herptile species richness using seven climate variables. Generalized additive models are used to relate species richness, climate and area. Results We found that variation in the grid cell area was large (50 × 50 km: 8–3311 km²; 220 × 220: 193–55,100 km²), but this did not affect the selection of variables in the models. Similarly, the predictive accuracy was affected only marginally by exclusion of area within models developed at the c. 50 × 50 km grid cells, although predictive accuracy suffered greater reductions when area was not included as a covariate in models developed for c. 220 × 220 km grid cells. Main conclusions Our results support the assumption that variation in near‐equal area cells may be of second‐order importance for models explaining or predicting species richness in relation to climate, although there is a possibility that drops in accuracy might increase with grid cell size. The results are, however, contingent on this particular data set, grain and extent of the analyses, and more empirical work is required.     

Phylogeny contributes more than site characteristics and traits to the spatial distribution pattern of tropical tree populations

Dispersal mechanism, species height, sexual system, and wood density are potential drivers of the spatial distribution pattern of tropical tree populations. These traits are usually conserved among closely related species, thus populations of these species should have more similar spatial distribution patterns than populations of phylogenetically distant species. Additionally, variation in the abiotic and biotic environment might result in distinct spatial distribution patterns of local populations of the same species. We employed variation partitioning to determine the degree to which traits, shared evolutionary history, site characteristics, and their joint effects govern the degree of overdispersion or aggregation of tree populations at different spatial scales within fourteen 1‐ha plots of the Atlantic Rainforest in southeastern Brazil. We quantified the degree of overdispersion or aggregation with a new standardized index err(r) based on standardized effect sizes of the pair correlation function. Variation in err(r) was mostly explained by phylogenetic relationships among species (70–95%, depending on spatial scale), indicating that traits not included in our analysis are important drivers of the spatial distribution pattern. Site characteristics explained a smaller part of the variation, indicating context‐dependence. Finally, the traits studied here provided the smallest explanation of the variation, suggesting a minor role of seed dispersal. Residual variation in err(r) ranged from 5–29%, indicating that stochasticity and/or variables not included in the models (e.g. direct measures of post‐dispersal processes) also influence the spatial distribution pattern of the populations. Our results suggest that many ecological processes act in concert at the study site and that their importance changes with spatial scale. Additionally, the relative importance of these processes differs from that previously described for other tropical forests. Determining why a given ecological process is more important in some tropical tree communities than in others are promising venues for further research.     

Multivariate analysis of a fine-scale breeding bird atlas using a geographical information system and partial canonical correspondence analysis: environmental and spatial effects

Aim To assess the relative roles of environment and space in driving bird species distribution and to identify relevant drivers of bird assemblage composition, in the case of a fine‐scale bird atlas data set. Location The study was carried out in southern Belgium using grid cells of 1 × 1 km, based on the distribution maps of the Oiseaux nicheurs de Famenne: Atlas de Lesse et Lomme which contains abundance for 103 bird species. Methods Species found in < 10% or > 90% of the atlas cells were omitted from the bird data set for the analysis. Each cell was characterized by 59 landscape metrics, quantifying its composition and spatial patterns, using a Geographical Information System. Partial canonical correspondence analysis was used to partition the variance of bird species matrix into independent components: (a) ‘pure’ environmental variation, (b) spatially‐structured environmental variation, (c) ‘pure’ spatial variation and (d) unexplained, non‐spatial variation. Results The variance partitioning method shows that the selected landscape metrics explain 27.5% of the variation, whilst ‘pure’ spatial and spatially‐structured environmental variables explain only a weak percentage of the variation in the bird species matrix (2.5% and 4%, respectively). Avian community composition is primarily related to the degree of urbanization and the amount and composition of forested and open areas. These variables explain more than half of the variation for three species and over one‐third of the variation for 12 species. Main conclusions The results seem to indicate that the majority of explained variation in species assemblages is attributable to local environmental factors. At such a fine spatial resolution, however, the method does not seem to be appropriated for detecting and extracting the spatial variation of assemblages. Consequently, the large amount of unexplained variation is probably because of missing spatial structures and ‘noise’ in species abundance data. Furthermore, it is possible that other relevant environmental factors, that were not taken into account in this study and which may operate at different spatial scales, can drive bird assemblage structure. As a large proportion of ecological variation can be shared by environment and space, the applied partitioning method was found to be useful when analysing multispecific atlas data, but it needs improvement to factor out all‐scale spatial components of this variation (the source of ‘false correlation’) and to bring out the ‘pure’ environmental variation for ecological interpretation.     

Teleconnections and local weather orchestrate the reproduction of tit species in the Carpathian Basin

Variation in climatic conditions is an important driving force of ecological processes. Populations are under selection to respond to climatic changes with respect to phenology of the annual cycle (e.g. breeding, migration) and life‐history. As teleconnections can reflect climate on a global scale, the responses of terrestrial animals are often investigated in relation to the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation. However, investigation of other teleconnections and local climate is often neglected. In this study, we examined over a 33‐year period the relationships between four teleconnections (El Niño‐Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, East Atlantic Pattern), local weather parameters (temperature and precipitation) and reproduction in great tits Parus major and blue tits Cyanistes caeruleus in the Carpathian Basin, Hungary. Furthermore, we explored how annual variations in the timing of food availability were correlated with breeding performance. In both species, annual laying date was negatively associated with the Arctic Oscillation. The date of peak abundance of caterpillars was negatively associated with local temperatures in December–January, while laying date was negatively related to January–March temperature. We found that date of peak abundance of caterpillars and laying date of great tits advanced, while in blue tits clutch size decreased over the decades but laying date did not advance. The results suggest that weather conditions during the months that preceded the breeding season, as well as temporally more distant winter conditions, were connected to breeding date. Our results highlight that phenological synchronization to food availability was different between the two tit species, namely it was disrupted in blue tits only. Additionally, the results suggest that in order to find the climatic drivers of the phenological changes of organisms, we should analyze a broader range of global meteorological parameters.