Climate change effects on animal and plant phylogenetic diversity in southern Africa

Much attention has been paid to the effects of climate change on species' range reductions and extinctions. There is however surprisingly little information on how climate change driven threat may impact the tree of life and result in loss of phylogenetic diversity (PD). Some plant families and mammalian orders reveal nonrandom extinction patterns, but many other plant families do not. Do these discrepancies reflect different speciation histories and does climate induced extinction result in the same discrepancies among different groups? Answers to these questions require representative taxon sampling. Here, we combine phylogenetic analyses, species distribution modeling, and climate change projections on two of the largest plant families in the Cape Floristic Region (Proteaceae and Restionaceae), as well as the second most diverse mammalian order in Southern Africa (Chiroptera), and an herbivorous insect genus (Platypleura) in the family Cicadidae to answer this question. We model current and future species distributions to assess species threat levels over the next 70 years, and then compare projected with random PD survival. Results for these animal and plant clades reveal congruence. PD losses are not significantly higher under predicted extinction than under random extinction simulations. So far the evidence suggests that focusing resources on climate threatened species alone may not result in disproportionate benefits for the preservation of evolutionary history.     

Phylogenetically clustered extinction risks do not substantially prune the Tree of Life

Anthropogenic activities have increased the rate of biological extinction many-fold. Recent empirical studies suggest that projected extinction may lead to extensive loss to the Tree of Life, much more than if extinction were random. One suggested cause is that extinction risk is heritable (phylogenetically patterned), such that entire higher groups will be lost. We show here with simulation that phylogenetically clustered extinction risks are necessary but not sufficient for the extensive loss of phylogenetic diversity (PD) compared to random extinction. We simulated Yule trees and evolved extinction risks at various levels of heritability (measured using Pagel's λ). At most levels of heritability (λ in range of 0 to 10), mean values of extinction risk (range 0.25 to 0.75), tree sizes (64 to 128 tips), tree balance and temporal heterogeneity of diversification rates (Yule and coalescent trees), extinction risks do not substantially increase the loss of PD in these trees when compared to random extinction. The maximum loss of PD (20% above random) was only associated with the combination of extremely excessive values of phylogenetic signal, high mean species' extinction probabilities, and extreme (coalescent) tree shapes. Interestingly, we also observed a decline in the rate of increase in the loss of PD at high phylogenetic clustering (λ → 10) of extinction risks. Our results suggest that the interplay between various aspects of tree shape and a predisposition of higher extinction risks in species-poor clades is required to explain the substantial pruning of the Tree of Life.     

Predicting loss of evolutionary history: Where are we?

The Earth's evolutionary history is threatened by species loss in the current sixth mass extinction event in Earth's history. Such extinction events not only eliminate species but also their unique evolutionary histories. Here we review the expected loss of Earth's evolutionary history quantified by phylogenetic diversity (PD) and evolutionary distinctiveness (ED) at risk. Due to the general paucity of data, global evolutionary history losses have been predicted for only a few groups, such as mammals, birds, amphibians, plants, corals and fishes. Among these groups, there is now empirical support that extinction threats are clustered on the phylogeny; however this is not always a sufficient condition to cause higher loss of phylogenetic diversity in comparison to a scenario of random extinctions. Extinctions of the most evolutionarily distinct species and the shape of phylogenetic trees are additional factors that can elevate losses of evolutionary history. Consequently, impacts of species extinctions differ among groups and regions, and even if global losses are low within large groups, losses can be high among subgroups or within some regions. Further, we show that PD and ED are poorly protected by current conservation practices. While evolutionary history can be indirectly protected by current conservation schemes, optimizing its preservation requires integrating phylogenetic indices with those that capture rarity and extinction risk. Measures based on PD and ED could bring solutions to conservation issues, however they are still rarely used in practice, probably because the reasons to protect evolutionary history are not clear for practitioners or due to a lack of data. However, important advances have been made in the availability of phylogenetic trees and methods for their construction, as well as assessments of extinction risk. Some challenges remain, and looking forward, research should prioritize the assessment of expected PD and ED loss for more taxonomic groups and test the assumption that preserving ED and PD also protects rare species and ecosystem services. Such research will be useful to inform and guide the conservation of Earth's biodiversity and the services it provides.     

Phylogenetically patterned speciation rates and extinction risks change the loss of evolutionary history during extinctions

If we are to plan conservation strategies that minimize the loss of evolutionary history through human-caused extinctions, we must understand how this loss is related to phylogenetic patterns in current extinction risks and past speciation rates. Nee & May (1997, Science 278, 692-694) showed that for a randomly evolving clade (i) a single round of random extinction removed relatively little evolutionary history, and (ii) extinction management (choosing which taxa to sacrifice) offered only marginal improvement. However, both speciation rates and extinction risks vary across lineages within real clades. We simulated evolutionary trees with phylogenetically patterned speciation rates and extinction risks (closely related lineages having similar rates and risks) and then subjected them to several biologically informed models of extinction. Increasing speciation rate variation increases the extinction-management pay-off. When extinction risks vary among lineages but are uncorrelated with speciation rates, extinction removes more history (compared with random trees), but the difference is small. When extinction risks vary and are correlated with speciation rates, history loss can dramatically increase (negative correlation) or decrease (positive correlation) with speciation rate variation. The loss of evolutionary history via human-caused extinctions may therefore be more severe, yet more manageable, than first suggested.     

Phylogenetic diversity does not capture body size variation at risk in the world's mammals

Mammals contribute to important ecosystem processes and services, but many mammalian species are threatened with extinction. We compare how global patterns in three measures of mammalian diversity—species richness, phylogenetic diversity (PD) and body mass variance (BMV)—would change if all currently threatened species were lost. Given that many facets of species'' ecology and life history scale predictably with body mass, the BMV in a region roughly reflects the diversity of species'' roles within ecosystems and so is a simple proxy for functional diversity (FD). PD is also often considered to be a proxy for FD, but our results suggest that BMV losses within ecoregions would be much more severe than losses of PD or species richness, and that its congruence with the latter two measures is low. Because of the disproportionate loss of large mammals, 65 per cent of ecoregions would lose significantly more BMV than under random extinction, while only 11 per cent would lose significantly more PD. Ecosystem consequences of these selective losses may be profound, especially throughout the tropics, but are not captured by PD. This low surrogacy stresses a need for conservation prioritization based on threatened trait diversity, and for conservation efforts to take an ecosystem perspective.     

Incorporating evolutionary history into conservation planning in biodiversity hotspots

There is increased evidence that incorporating evolutionary history directly in conservation actions is beneficial, particularly given the likelihood that extinction is not random and that phylogenetic diversity (PD) is lost at higher rates than species diversity. This evidence is even more compelling in biodiversity hotspots, such as Madagascar, where less than 10% of the original vegetation remains. Here, we use the Leguminosae, an ecologically and economically important plant family, and a combination of phylogenetics and species distribution modelling, to assess biodiversity patterns and identify regions, coevolutionary processes and ecological factors that are important in shaping this diversity, especially during the Quaternary. We show evidence that species distribution and community PD are predicted by watershed boundaries, which enable the identification of a network of refugia and dispersal corridors that were perhaps important for maintaining community integrity during past climate change. Phylogenetically clustered communities are found in the southwest of the island at low elevation and share a suite of morphological characters (especially fruit morphology) indicative of coevolution with their main dispersers, the extinct and extant lemurs. Phylogenetically over-dispersed communities are found along the eastern coast at sea level and may have resulted from many independent dispersal events from the drier and more seasonal regions of Madagascar.     

Nonrandom extinction leads to elevated loss of angiosperm evolutionary history

The phylogenetic clustering of extinction may jeopardize the existence of entire families and genera, which can result in elevated reductions of evolutionary history (EH), trait diversity, and ecosystem functioning. Analyses of globally threatened birds and mammals suggest current extinction threats will result in a much higher loss of EH than random extinction scenarios, while the analyses of the taxonomical distribution of regionally rare plants find the opposite pattern. The disproportionately high number of rare plant species within species-rich families potentially suggests that lower losses of plant EH will be sustained than expected under random extinction. We show that at a global scale, this is not the case. Species-poor (especially monotypic) angiosperm families are more often at risk of extinction than expected. Because these high-risk species-poor families are as evolutionarily distinct as other families, the expected family-level EH plausibly lost in the next 100 years exceeds that predicted from random extinction by up to approximately 1165 million years.     

How global extinctions impact regional biodiversity in mammals

Phylogenetic diversity (PD) represents the evolutionary history of a species assemblage and is a valuable measure of biodiversity because it captures not only species richness but potentially also genetic and functional diversity. Preserving PD could be critical for maintaining the functional integrity of the world's ecosystems, and species extinction will have a large impact on ecosystems in areas where the ecosystem cost per species extinction is high. Here, we show that impacts from global extinctions are linked to spatial location. Using a phylogeny of all mammals, we compare regional losses of PD against a model of random extinction. At regional scales, losses differ dramatically: several biodiversity hotspots in southern Asia and Amazonia will lose an unexpectedly large proportion of PD. Global analyses may therefore underestimate the impacts of extinction on ecosystem processes and function because they occur at finer spatial scales within the context of natural biogeography.     

Anthropogenic extinction threats and future loss of evolutionary history in reef corals

Extinction always results in loss of phylogenetic diversity (PD), but phylogenetically selective extinctions have long been thought to disproportionately reduce PD. Recent simulations show that tree shapes also play an important role in determining the magnitude of PD loss, potentially offsetting the effects of clustered extinctions. While patterns of PD loss under different extinction scenarios are becoming well characterized in model phylogenies, analyses of real clades that often have unbalanced tree shapes remain scarce, particularly for marine organisms. Here, we use a fossil‐calibrated phylogeny of all living scleractinian reef corals in conjunction with IUCN data on extinction vulnerabilities to quantify how loss of species in different threat categories will affect the PD of this group. Our analyses reveal that predicted PD loss in corals varies substantially among different threats, with extinctions due to bleaching and disease having the largest negative effects on PD. In general, more phylogenetically clustered extinctions lead to larger losses of PD in corals, but there are notable exceptions; extinction of rare corals from distantly‐related old and unique lineages can also result in substantial PD loss. Thus our results show that loss of PD in reef corals is dependent on both tree shape and the nature of extinction threats.     

Biological correlates of extinction risk in bats

We investigated patterns and processes of extinction and threat in bats using a multivariate phylogenetic comparative approach. Of nearly 1,000 species worldwide, 239 are considered threatened by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) and 12 are extinct. Small geographic ranges and low wing aspect ratios are independently found to predict extinction risk in bats, which explains 48% of the total variance in IUCN assessments of threat. The pattern and correlates of extinction risk in the two bat suborders are significantly different. A higher proportion (4%) of megachiropteran species have gone extinct in the last 500 years than microchiropteran bats (0.3%), and a higher proportion is currently at risk of extinction (Megachiroptera: 34%; Microchiroptera: 22%). While correlates of microchiropteran extinction risk are the same as in the order as a whole, megachiropteran extinction is correlated more with reproductive rate and less with wing morphology. Bat extinction risk is not randomly distributed phylogenetically: closely related species have more similar levels of threat than would be expected if extinction risk were random. Given the unbalanced nature of the evolutionary diversification of bats, it is probable that the amount of phylogenetic diversity lost if currently threatened taxa disappear may be greater than in other clades with numerically more threatened species.     

Selective extinction and rapid loss of evolutionary history in the bird fauna

The extinction of species results in a permanent loss of evolutionary history. Recent theoretical studies show that this loss may be proportionally much smaller than the loss of species, but under some conditions can exceed it. Such conditions occur when the phylogenetic tree that describes the evolutionary relationships among species is highly imbalanced due to differences between lineages in past speciation and/or extinction rates. I used the taxonomy by C. G. Sibley and B. L. Monroe Jr to estimate the global loss of bird evolutionary history from historical and predicted extinctions, and to quantify the ensuing changes in balance of the bird phylogenetic tree. In the global bird fauna, evolutionary history is being lost at a high rate, similar to the rate of species extinction. The bird phylogenetic tree is highly imbalanced, and the imbalance is increased significantly by anthropogenic extinction. Historically, the elevated loss of bird evolutionary history has been fuelled mostly by phylogenetic non-randomness in the extinction of species, but the direct effect of tree imbalance is substantial and could dominate in the future.     

Bias in phylogenetic measurements of extinction and a case study of end‐Permian tetrapods

Extinction risk in the modern world and extinction in the geological past are often linked to aspects of life history or other facets of biology that are phylogenetically conserved within clades. These links can result in phylogenetic clustering of extinction, a measurement comparable across different clades and time periods that can be made in the absence of detailed trait data. This phylogenetic approach is particularly suitable for vertebrate taxa, which often have fragmentary fossil records, but robust, cladistically‐inferred trees. Here we use simulations to investigate the adequacy of measures of phylogenetic clustering of extinction when applied to phylogenies of fossil taxa while assuming a Brownian motion model of trait evolution. We characterize expected biases under a variety of evolutionary and analytical scenarios. Recovery of accurate estimates of extinction clustering depends heavily on the sampling rate, and results can be highly variable across topologies. Clustering is often underestimated at low sampling rates, whereas at high sampling rates it is always overestimated. Sampling rate dictates which cladogram timescaling method will produce the most accurate results, as well as how much of a bias ancestor–descendant pairs introduce. We illustrate this approach by applying two phylogenetic metrics of extinction clustering (Fritz and Purvis's D and Moran's I) to three tetrapod clades across an interval including the Permo‐Triassic mass extinction event. These groups consistently show phylogenetic clustering of extinction, unrelated to change in other quantitative metrics such as taxonomic diversity or extinction intensity.     

Simulated shifts in trophic niche breadth modulate range loss of alpine butterflies under climate change

Species currently track suitable abiotic and biotic conditions under ongoing climate change. Adjustments of trophic interactions may provide a mechanism for population persistence, an option that is rarely included in model projections. Here, we model the future distribution, of butterflies in the western Alps of Switzerland under climate change, simulating potential diet expansion resulting from adaptive behavior or new host opportunities. We projected the distribution of 60 butterfly and 298 plant species with species distribution models (SDMs) under three climate change scenarios. From known host plants, we allowed a potential diet expansion based on phylogenetic constraints. We assessed whether diet expansion could reduce the rate of expected regional species extinction under climate change. We found that the risk of species extinctions decreased with a concave upward decreasing shape when expanding the host plant range. A diet expansion to even a few phylogenetically closely related host plants would significantly decrease extinction rates. Yet, even when considering expansion toward all plant species available in the study area, the overall regional extinction risk would remain high. Ecological or evolutionary shifts to new host plants may attenuate extinction risk, but the severe decline of suitable abiotic conditions is still expected to drive many species to local extinction.     

Macroevolution and climate change influence phylogenetic community assembly of North American hoofed mammals

Animal richness, community composition, and phylogenetic community structure (PCS) vary across the modern landscape. Animal communities vary from phylogenetically clustered (i.e. higher relatedness amongst co‐occurring species than is expected by chance) to phylogenetically even (i.e. co‐occurring taxa are more distantly related than expected by chance), which is explained by abiotic or climatic filtering and competitive exclusion, respectively. Under this model, the contribution of historical origination and extinction events to modern animal PCS remains relatively unknown. Because origination and extinction determine the make‐up of the terrestrial community, the study of historical changes in animal PCS is tantamount to understanding formation of modern communities. In the present study, we test the effects of macroevolution and climate changes on ‘hoofed mammals’ (i.e. perissodactyl and artiodactyl) PCS from the late Cenozoic of North America because they experience large, phylogenetically dispersed extinctions of browsing species and phylogenetically dispersed originations of grazing species associated with the evolution of grassland ecosystems during the late Miocene. We show that the loss of numerically dominant nonhypsodont (putatively browsing and mixed feeding) clades and phylogenetically dispersed origination of less speciose clades following the mid Miocene climatic optimum led to an increase in phylogenetic evenness at the regional scale that is well explained by global climate changes. Phylogenetic evenness and a reduced richness during the late Cenozoic may have facilitated reduced niche overlap among co‐occurring hoofed mammal species as global climates cooled. © 2015 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2015, 114 , 485–494.     

Archosauromorph extinction selectivity during the Triassic–Jurassic mass extinction

Many traits have been linked to extinction risk among modern vertebrates, including mode of life and body size. However, previous work has indicated there is little evidence that body size, or any other trait, was selective during past mass extinctions. Here, we investigate the impact of the Triassic–Jurassic mass extinction on early Archosauromorpha (basal dinosaurs, crocodylomorphs and their relatives) by focusing on body size and other life history traits. We built several new archosauromorph maximum‐likelihood supertrees, incorporating uncertainty in phylogenetic relationships. These supertrees were then employed as a framework to test whether extinction had a phylogenetic signal during the Triassic–Jurassic mass extinction, and whether species with certain traits were more or less likely to go extinct. We find evidence for phylogenetic signal in extinction, in that taxa were more likely to become extinct if a close relative also did. However, there is no correlation between extinction and body size, or any other tested trait. These conclusions add to previous findings that body size, and other traits, were not subject to selection during mass extinctions in closely‐related clades, although the phylogenetic signal in extinction indicates that selection may have acted on traits not investigated here.     

Diversity,extinction, and threat status in Lagomorphs

A quarter of all lagomorphs (pikas, rabbits, hares and jackrabbits) are threatened with extinction, including several genera that contain only one species. The number of species in a genus correlates with extinction risk in lagomorphs, but not in other mammal groups, and this is concerning because the non‐random extinction of small clades disproportionately threatens genetic diversity and phylogenetic history. Here, we use phylogenetic analyses to explore the properties of the lagomorph phylogeny and test if variation in evolution, biogeography and ecology between taxa explains current patterns of diversity and extinction risk. Threat status was not related to body size (and, by inference, its biological correlates), and there was no phylogenetic signal in extinction risk. We show that the lagomorph phylogeny has a similar clade‐size distribution to other mammals, and found that genus size was unrelated to present climate, topography, or geographic range size. Extinction risk was greater in areas of higher human population density and negatively correlated with anthropogenically modified habitat. Consistent with this, habitat generalists were less likely to be threatened. Our models did not predict threat status accurately for taxa that experience region‐specific threats. We suggest that pressure from human populations is so severe and widespread that it overrides ecological, biological, and geographic variation in extant lagomorphs.     

Putting phylogeny into the analysis of biological traits: A methodological approach

Phylogenetic comparative methods have long considered phylogenetic signal as a source of statistical bias in the correlative analysis of biological traits. However, the main life-history strategies existing in a set of taxa are often combinations of life history traits that are inherently phylogenetically structured. In this paper, we present a method for identifying evolutionary strategies from large sets of biological traits, using phylogeny as a source of meaningful historical and ecological information. Our methodology extends a multivariate method developed for the analysis of spatial patterns, and relies on finding combinations of traits that are phylogenetically autocorrelated. Using extensive simulations, we show that our method efficiently uncovers phylogenetic structures with respect to various tree topologies, and remains powerful in cases where a large majority of traits are not phylogenetically structured. Our methodology is illustrated using empirical data, and implemented in the adephylo package for the free software R.     

Body length of bony fishes was not a selective factor during the biggest mass extinction of all time

The Permo‐Triassic mass extinction devastated life on land and in the sea, but it is not clear why some species survived and others went extinct. One explanation is that lineage loss during mass extinctions is a random process in which luck determines which species survive. Alternatively, a phylogenetic signal in extinction may indicate a selection process operating on phenotypic traits. Large body size has often emerged as an extinction risk factor in studies of modern extinction risk, but this is not so commonly the case for mass extinctions in deep time. Here, we explore the evolution of non‐teleostean Actinopterygii (bony fishes) from the Devonian to the present day, and we concentrate on the Permo‐Triassic mass extinction. We apply a variety of time‐scaling metrics to date the phylogeny, and show that diversity peaked in the latest Permian and declined severely during the Early Triassic. In line with previous evidence, we find the phylogenetic signal of extinction increases across the mass extinction boundary: extinction of species in the earliest Triassic is more clustered across phylogeny compared to the more randomly distributed extinction signal in the late Permian. However, body length plays no role in differential survival or extinction of taxa across the boundary. In the case of fishes, size did not determine which species survived and which went extinct, but phylogenetic signal indicates that the mass extinction was not a random field of bullets.     

Phylogenetic Clustering of Origination and Extinction across the Late Ordovician Mass Extinction

Mass extinctions can have dramatic effects on the trajectory of life, but in some cases the effects can be relatively small even when extinction rates are high. For example, the Late Ordovician mass extinction is the second most severe in terms of the proportion of genera eliminated, yet is noted for the lack of ecological consequences and shifts in clade dominance. By comparison, the end-Cretaceous mass extinction was less severe but eliminated several major clades while some rare surviving clades diversified in the Paleogene. This disconnect may be better understood by incorporating the phylogenetic relatedness of taxa into studies of mass extinctions, as the factors driving extinction and recovery are thought to be phylogenetically conserved and should therefore promote both origination and extinction of closely related taxa. Here, we test whether there was phylogenetic selectivity in extinction and origination using brachiopod genera from the Middle Ordovician through the Devonian. Using an index of taxonomic clustering (R_CL) as a proxy for phylogenetic clustering, we find that A) both extinctions and originations shift from taxonomically random or weakly clustered within families in the Ordovician to strongly clustered in the Silurian and Devonian, beginning with the recovery following the Late Ordovician mass extinction, and B) the Late Ordovician mass extinction was itself only weakly clustered. Both results stand in stark contrast to Cretaceous-Cenozoic bivalves, which showed significant levels of taxonomic clustering of extinctions in the Cretaceous, including strong clustering in the mass extinction, but taxonomically random extinctions in the Cenozoic. The contrasting patterns between the Late Ordovician and end-Cretaceous events suggest a complex relationship between the phylogenetic selectivity of mass extinctions and the long-term phylogenetic signal in origination and extinction patterns.     

Phylogenetic Patterns of Extinction Risk in the Eastern Arc Ecosystems,an African Biodiversity Hotspot

There is an urgent need to reduce drastically the rate at which biodiversity is declining worldwide. Phylogenetic methods are increasingly being recognised as providing a useful framework for predicting future losses, and guiding efforts for pre-emptive conservation actions. In this study, we used a reconstructed phylogenetic tree of angiosperm species of the Eastern Arc Mountains – an important African biodiversity hotspot – and described the distribution of extinction risk across taxonomic ranks and phylogeny. We provide evidence for both taxonomic and phylogenetic selectivity in extinction risk. However, we found that selectivity varies with IUCN extinction risk category. Vulnerable species are more closely related than expected by chance, whereas endangered and critically endangered species are not significantly clustered on the phylogeny. We suggest that the general observation for taxonomic and phylogenetic selectivity (i.e. phylogenetic signal, the tendency of closely related species to share similar traits) in extinction risks is therefore largely driven by vulnerable species, and not necessarily the most highly threatened. We also used information on altitudinal distribution and climate to generate a predictive model of at-risk species richness, and found that greater threatened species richness is found at higher altitude, allowing for more informed conservation decision making. Our results indicate that evolutionary history can help predict plant susceptibility to extinction threats in the hyper-diverse but woefully-understudied Eastern Arc Mountains, and illustrate the contribution of phylogenetic approaches in conserving African floristic biodiversity where detailed ecological and evolutionary data are often lacking.